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Friday, January 04, 2013

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lorecore: I don't know that I would be overly pleased if the Phillies forfeited the #16 pick for 1 year of Lohse, even at $4m.

I feel like this thread was deliberately inserted to end the Simpsons banter.

A distinct possibility there, jbird.

jbird: It was just a hyptothetical, didn't actually intend to debate the validity of it.

A near metaphysical certitude, actually.

lorecore: oh, I understand. I just don't think even at league minimum Lohse would be a great deal. Maybe that's hyperbole though. . . I don't know.

"At least you won't see . . . Juan Pierre trying to reach second base without two-hopping his throw."

True. Instead you'll see Ben Revere trying to reach second base without two-hopping his throw.

Kyle Lohse is coming off a career year that just screams for regression off a cliff.

No offense to Mr. Wisniewski, but I also think some of these new blog posts hit on topics that were covered in the comment threads days ago. This isn't the 1st time that's happened recently.

But, to make a comment relevant to the post, I would give up that extra year of average youth for a little extra seasoning in the outfield.

BAP, you know nothing about Ben Revere. He only has a weak arm because he never used it.

No, when he wants to deliver the ball to any specific base, he just runs it there.

Faster than any player in the majors could throw it, too.

No, when he wants to deliver the ball to any specific base, he just runs it there.

Faster than any player in the majors could throw it, too.

Reminds me of that Looney Tunes cartoon where Bugs Bunny plays every position:

First Base - Bugs Bunny
Second Base - Bugs Bunny
...and so on.

Similar to:

Left Field - Ben Revere/Darin Ruf
Center Field - Ben Revere
Right Field - Ben Revere/Domonic Brown

jbird: I write about items that were previously covered all the time. In fact, I often take the best of the comments thread and dedicate entire posts to it. What's the big deal?

Yeah jbird, getting quoted in the thread header is kind of a big deal around here. By my count, MG, clout and bay_area_phan are among the BL leaders in that categories.

I've only been enshrined once or twice.

86 days to Opening Day

JW: I've noticed that when yo do it, you give attribution to various posters.

I got quoted once...I rewarded myself with a dinner at a nice steakhouse.

Guess I should have kicked back some money to JW for more quotations though as I'm pretty sure it was a singular event.

jbird - Topics that are argued ad nausem are pretty much a BL staple. I mean the Lee trade to Seattle was being argued a few days ago.

JW: I don't mean to complain. I certainly appreciate having fresh threads in a timely fashion and there's not a lot going on these days.

I've never gotten quoted but feel like one of my comments got pirated recently. I don't even remember what it was about, I just remember the deep and crushing disappointment of knowing I still hadn't "made it". {weeps openly}

"In the Phillies' case, it appears, they're moving in the right direction. And it should stay that way, assuming Jim Thome and Jamie Moyer stay away."

I wonder if the Phillies could sign Thome again and then before the deadline, trade him to a contender for 2 more prospects.

The most interesting season in a long time. They could win a championship or see the end of the legacy roster (Halladay, Utley and Ruiz in walk years and Lee and Rollins as trade candidates).

Your first time getting quoted in the header is a big deal, for sure.

Once you've got a few under your belt, it's no big deal. You just sit back and wait for the initiation call from the Elite.

They traded Lee to Seattle again! WTF Rube!

If the team were 15 games out at the trade deadline, do you sell, Sell, SELL!? Get what you can get for anyone over 30?

I truly feel horrible for Kyle Lohse. I would definitely not want to be him.

Also, there is an inaccuracy in the post above. Wisniewski seems to infer that Young is durable just because he has played in almost every game. MG had an exclusive report a few days ago citing an imaginary source that Young is an injury concern and suffered from an undisclosed injury the entire 2012 season.

Dont worry, I heard that Young has been working out hard all winter and is in the best shape of his life as Spring Training approaches.

Sorry to re-post from the last thread but I am curious to know the answer.
Does anyone know how they calculate the average of the salary of top 25 players to come up with the QO amount? Is it on how much they actually make this year or on their AAV?

Young isn't even participating in the WBC. So you know he's committed to winning!

Speaking of which, will Japan take the WBC again?

Fatti, don't forget Sophist on the most quoted list.

My complaint about Mike Wis is that no one taught him not to end a sentence with a preposition.

"The value of the qualifying offer, which is determined annually by averaging the top 125 player salaries from the previous year, will be worth $13.3MM this offseason."

Thats all I could find. If i had to make an educated guess, I believe its strictly the previous year salary, and not the AAV.

My very first post on Beerleaguer actually made it to the next thread header. It was a May, 2007 diatribe against Pat Gillick. In the post, I took Gillick to task for the fact that the Phillies stunk, and I ridiculed the very idea that we would contend by 2008. My not-so-prescient comments even garnered a "great post" response from "AWH," who was a devout management-basher back then. Now he's no longer AWH, but awh. And he rarely agrees with anything I say & almost never bashes anything that management does. Times change, even if my dumb predictions do not.

"My complaint about Mike Wis is that no one taught him not to end a sentence with a preposition."

Dangling prepositions are the kind of grammatical sloppiness up with which I will not put.

***Speaking of which, will Japan take the WBC again?***

The Japanese?!? Those sandal-wearing goldfish tenders?


Perhaps I should have listened to that young man instead of walling him up in an abandoned coke oven.

***Dangling prepositions are the kind of grammatical sloppiness up with which I will not put.***

Put where???

A new student at Harvard was lost looking for his economics class. He stopped a nearby professor and asked, "Which room is this economics class in?"

The professor responded frankly, "Son, this is Harvard. We don't end our sentences with prepositions!"

To this, the student replied, "I'm sorry, sir. Which room is this economics class in, a88hole?"

I'd have probably agreed with BAP in May of '07 also, and would probably still agree with what he said at the time. Gillick was incredibly fortunate with many of his moves. He had the golden touch.

Around that time I thought Manuel needed to be fired and ownership was cheap. Of course, some people still think that, but reality has a way of shaping the opinions only of those who are willing to admit they're wrong.

awh: Those Simpson's blogs you linked too were crap. Maybe we need a Beeleaguer: Springfield. where we are twice as smart as the commeters at Beerleaguer: Shelbyville!

jbird, but can we marry our cousins?

I tell you, I won't live in a town that robs men of the right to marry their cousins!

Ending sentences with a preposition is completely OK in English. See number 1 on this list.

http://grammar.quickanddirtytips.com/top-ten-grammar-myths.aspx

I also think the picture in this post- Revere throwing with his rag arm- is very well played.

Based on what BAP is saying about his arm, and what myself and others are saying about his range, I think a good compromise would be playing Revere in the RH gap and have Brown follow him around wherever he goes and be his 'throwing caddy.' When Revere catches or runs down a ball, he simply flips it to Brown and he guns it into 2B.

Otherwise, both will be defensive liabilities. What could possibly go wrong?

I should qualify with "..is completely OK in English as long as the preposition is dependent on the meaning of the sentence in that place in the sentence."

Cool. So, when the 2013 Phillies get shut out on 2 hits by a 28-year old minor league journeyman making his 3rd major league start, I'm allowed to write, "I'm going to throw up" and I won't be violating any rules of grammar.

in all seriousness, i bet there will be times in right-center where Revere may be able to get to a ball before DOM, but opts to wait the extra second to allow him to recover and throw instead.

They'd both have to be pretty close to the ball for the difference to matter, but I am almost positive the situation will happen more than once over the course of the season.

When Dick Allen cut his hand on a car headlight back in the 60's, the shortstop would run out toward leftfield. Allen would toss the ball to the shortstop underhand, then the shortstop would make the throw.

I think we may need a similar relay system for centerfield this season.

lore-- Or a collision would land them both on the DL. Either way.

One word is better than two: "to vomit" ... just a suggestion, hopefully unneeded

Or two words are better than three, whatever

I still want Sizemore on a low risk deal and then a decent reliever on a 1 year deal then call it an offseason. Let's go Rube!

Sizemore doesn't fit the Phils because he likely won't play until mid-season, by which point the Phils may well be out of the playoff hunt. They're better off acquiring someone now that they can trade if the season goes south in the first half.

I'm still convinced RAJ will land a veteran outfielder before the season starts, to avoid the double-platoon situation and take some pressure off Ruf. RAJ is probably waiting to see where Justin Upton ends up, and whether that results in another OF (Nelson Cruz?) becoming available. If Upton stays put, David DeJesus (Cubs) might be an intriguing option that wouldn't cost an arm and a leg in trade.

Younger and more athletic? Where have I heard that...

Willie Mays did something similar when he was completely washed up as a Met...he would toss it to one of the corner OFs because he couldnt throw the ball from CF anymore.


Therefore, Ben Revere is the next Willie Mays.

How many seasons has sizemore tried to "comeback" now. Dudes never gonna get right or he's rich harden and you just have to roll the dice and hope you get him for the 6 good months before he goes back to a 12 month recovery

"...I'm allowed to write, "I'm going to throw up" and I won't be violating any rules of grammar."

bap, no you cannot write that and be correct.


The correct sentence is:

"I'm going to throw up in my mouth!"

This was linked on mlbtr.

It's a writeup on the teams that might beable to trade for Giancarlo S., and includes the Phillies:

http://www.mlbprospectwatch.com/mlb_prospect_watch/2012/12/which-teams-match-up-with-the-marlins-on-giancarlo-stanton.html

Here's his opening comment about the Phils:

"Philadelphia Phillies - There is perhaps no better fit between Stanton and another team than there is with the Phillies. A bat like Stanton could be exactly the piece they need to get back to the playoffs and the fact that he's right-handed makes it even that much better. But do they have anything left to trade? To answer that question, I'll direct you to this e-mail I got from a reader:"

From that article: If the Phillies offered a deal of Brown, Biddle, Aumont and Joseph, the Marlins would listen, but if they had any offers available that had at least one impact player, they'd take it over anything the Phillies can offer.

That wouldn't get it done. None of those 4 are elite prospects. Maybe if this was 2 years ago for Brown but not now.

We all know Cholly will never bat Slappy 9th. If he hits 8th, his 180 hits will result in Ruiz, Ruf, and Kratz getting thrown out at home 90 times, because the OF will be playing in.(Attention grammur pulise!) Either that, or they will clog up the bases in front of him. And then the pitcher will leave them all stranded.

Batting leadoff, last year's .294 would be 206 hits in 700AB. Then he can distract the pitcher while #2-5 hit.

He might lead the league in Outs Made too...which would put him in good company with Jimmy (who has finished 1st or 2nd in the NL in 7 of his 12 full seasons)

Let's sign Manny Ramirez to increase our average age.

Unless they hit .330 or draw 100 walks, any leadoff hitter will lead their team in outs made. We have no such player.

How about this: trade Cliff Lee to the Rangers for a couple of their prospects; then add those prospects to Brown, Biddle, etc. for Stanton.

Would that be enough?

Given Lee's remaining salary, we probably wouldnt get good enough prospects for that to help.

It would also open a massive gaping hole in our rotation which would lead to its own problems.

There are no remaining pitchers even close to the level of Lee.

In the old days, a wealthy owner would simply throw big bucks at a poor or greedy owner for a player like Stanton. How much of Middleton's cigar money would it take, and would Bud allow it?

One is reminded of Gary Oldman in The Professional.

"Bring me everyone."

"Everyone?"

"EVERYYYYOOONNNNNEEEEEEEEE!!!!!"

Dodgers get JP Howell. 1 year, less than 3 million. I wonder what Rube was thinking.

From the Phillies' perspective, a good starting offer for Stanton would be: every player in our minor league system, including the 16-year old international signees that are currently playing in the Venezuelan and Dominican Leagues. If the Marlins want more that, we can sweeten the pot a little with our follow-up offers.

Apparently sizable performance incentives for Howell as well, might need to wait to see what they are. At first look tho, I think the phils should have been able to outbid that.

Maybe they didnt want to outbid him or maybe he didnt want to play in Philly over LA.

The Dodgers have to be pushing a payroll in the low $230s Million with everything factored in (medical, 40 man costs, AAV).

Lore~ Yes they should have been able to.

NEPP~ Valid point.

But, seeing what they're not doing. I'd have to opine that they're done making moves. If that's so well....

If my very rough calculations are correct, the Dodgers have about $226 Million committed to their 25 man right now not counting medical benefits or the additional 40 man costs. They're probably looking at an official payroll in the $240 Million range (just $61 Million over the tax for the year)

Every FA that is signed is met with DPat crying about why Rube didn't sign him. Every single one.

I have a feeling when he was a kid, DPat was one of those children that cried for hours after a trip to the store if his parents didn't get him a candy bar in the check-out line.

Ice~ I wasn't the only person here who wanted to see Howell here. In fact I wasn't even the first person to bring it up.

Fact is, you just don't see things the way I do. You're buying into the crap bill of goods that this team is selling buy thinking they're good enough. I'm not. They're just refusing to spend any money on any FA's. So regardless of what our opinions are you can't tell me that either Mike Gonzalez or Howell, for the money they got, could not help the Phils, can you?

Hootenanny on Beerleaguer....(:

DPat- I wanted Howell and said so multiple times. I really just want another arm in the pen, and there are still some out there that would help.

The point is that you have no idea what circumstances surrounded Howell going to LA. He took a one year deal from them, yet Washington was said to be hot after him and willing to go two years. Is Rizzo a failure for not being able to sign him? Perhaps Howell wanted to play on the west coast, or just wanted to play for LA. You have no clue.

The fact is that there are still relievers out there that can be had for a similar salary or less that would help the bullpen. You need to calm down. If Amaro signed every FA you freak out about him not signing, the Phils would have a 70 man roster.

And I missed the Gonzalez thing. He would have been a pointless signing. He hasn't had a really good year since 2009 and is strictly a LOOGY at this point. He didn't even pitch 40 innings last year.

I'd take Bastardo, Horst and even Diekman before paying a dime to a retread like Mike Gonzalez.

Dear John, your cigar money spent on Cespedes a year ago would have eased your pain today. I tender my services in a last ditch effort to fill your coffers and satisfy your ego with a plan that will lead you into more than independent wealth and fame. Give me a call at 1-800- STA-NTON.

Iceman: Mike Gonzalez is far from the best target, but lets not get carried away there.

Iceman has a point.

DPat, you bitch about every signing that occurs - whether you raised the guys name or not.

"Hey, he coulda helped da Phils!!!"

No sh8t, Sherlock!!!

Name them: Hamilton, Swisher, Greinke... it doesn't matter.

You take every non-signing byt the Phils and try to twist it into evidence that the FO isn't committed to winning or isn't even interested in winning.

I say that's bullsh8t.

Lee, the Halladay extension, hamels, Howard's extension, Papelbon... you didn''t bitch about them not spending money when they signed or extended those guys. No, you and your kind bitch a couple of years later with perfect hindsight that the money wasn't allocated as well as it should have been.

Frankly, your act is getting real old.

RAJ doesn't operate in a vaccum. other GM's compete with him for players, and he doesn't always win the bidding war. Also, players have their own minds and make decisions that don't always involve the highest bid. I can prove that to you in two words: Cliff Lee. he took less money to come back to Philly. I didn't see you ripping Cashman for not going beyond his already-higher-bid to make Lee an "offer he couldn't refuse".

Are you and your ilk suggesting that RAj be the high bidder for every FA out there, regardless of what it costs? Are you?


They're not "just refusing to spend money on any FA's" or players. They recently committed 140+ MILLION to Cole Hamels to PREVENT him from becoming an FA. Are you suggesting that you would view the FO differently if they had LET him become an FA and then signed him because they were then the highest bidder? Would you then write the same sentence? I don't think so.

The problem is that you lack the capacity to make th econnection between extending a team's own players (SPENDING MONEY) and signing an FA (also SPENDING MONEY).

I'm not FO apologist, and have, in the past, been one of the most vicious bashers of the FO on this site. Just go tak a lok at bap's post at 3:45:

"My not-so-prescient comments even garnered a "great post" response from "AWH," who was a devout management-basher back then."

Well, I was, and I still don't agree with everything they do. However, refusing to spend money is no longer one of them. they spend. How many teams have as many players as the Phillies making an AAV of over $15MM? How many?

Answer that and then tell me this team refuses to spend money, on FA's or anytone else.

Regarding grammar (and this being BL, I can't believe this hasn't been pointed out): none of the sentences in the thread header actually end with a preposition. "Away" in the final sentence is used as an adverb.

"From the Phillies' perspective, a good starting offer for Stanton would be: every player in our minor league system, including the 16-year old international signees that are currently playing in the Venezuelan and Dominican Leagues."

Obviously this isn't serious, but I wonder if the Marlins would even do that. I actually think the Phillies would be more likely to make that trade than the Marlins.

Stanton will have to be complaining a lot and publicly before the Marlins start to entertain serious offers, and then it will be in July, when they can extract the most from a contender. Any trade will have to be an obvious win for MIA, so expect high profile prospects, the familiar names, to be involved. The acquiring team will have to feel some pain too. It's a pipe dream to think the Phil's have a shot at acquiring him, given their prospects, although I'd love to eat crow on that point.

Sign Bourn to a one yr deal. Trade Revere and prospects for Stanton

Sounds easy docjoe. Let's do it.

Definitely think they should have gotten Howell. I don't know how much more rope they can give bastardo. He better have his act together.

Joe D, do we know for a fact that RAJ didn't make Howell an offer? And, if he did make one, do we know that it was for less money than the Dodgers?

Howell is from California. Perhaps he wanted to return, and took a less lucrative offer from the Dodgers.

It's also possible that Howeel turned down multiple other offers to return to California.

Do we know where he lives in the offseason?

His wife does some broadcasting:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJUm7xNIvpg

Maybe she helped influence the decision to return to CA.

mlbtr says Darin Oliver wants more money to return in 2013.

Were I RAJ, I would definitely be on the line to the Blue Jays.

Id give alot to get Stanton, whatever it takes, but Bourn given his age, style of game, and the money it would cost, I'd rather have Bucky Legrange

I'd like to see us sign Tim McCarver so that we can run up the score very game.

Pop quiz: in which of the below years did Bastardo have a better season in terms of ERA/ERA+?

Year A: 14.02 K/9, 4.50 BB/9, 27.7% GB
Year B: 10.60 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 25.4% GB

lorecore- Gonzalez is the type of guy Jack has been going on and on about for the past year. His best case scenario is someone we already have in the bullpen, and the worst case is a complete disaster. His numbers the last three years are all over the place. He's a total coin flip.

If Amaro is going to spend money on an arm for the pen, it better be on a guy that has a high-percentage chance of helping the team. Gonzalez could just as well end up like Qualls or Baez.

Lindstrom is a much better bet given his 3-year numbers and the fact that he's RH. If Gonzalez could get out RHB, maybe I'd be more open to taking a chance.

year b

id guess he most likely had better era by facing less batters per 9 innings

Bastardo

Year A: 72.2% strand rate; 12.5% HR/RB ratio; .306 BABIP; 3.34 FIP; 3.18 xFIP

Year B: 81.1% strand rate; 8.1 HR/FB ratio; .179 BABIP; 3.30 FIP; 3.56 xFIP.

The notion that that there was something wrong with him last year is nonsense. He allowed a few too many walks, compared to 2011. Otherwise, he pitched just as well, if not better, than in 2011. The huge difference in ERA (an already poor index for relievers) was due to extraordinarily good luck in 2011, and not-so-great luck in 2012.

"id guess he most likely had better era by facing less batters per 9 innings."

Huh? How would facing fewer batters per 9 innings improve his ERA? He faced 225 batters in 2011 & 224 in 2012.

"Gonzalez is the type of guy Jack has been going on and on about for the past year."

It's funny because that's exactly what I think of J.P. Howell. He was terrible at the beginning of his career; put together a couple good years in 2008 and 2009; then was awful in 2011; then he had a decent ERA last year even though his peripherals all say he didn't pitch very well. He's your garden variety fungible reliever, who is just as likely to be really bad this year as really good.

yea that makes zero sense,, i knew year b looked better, i guess i figured 1 less walk per 9 and 4 less strikeouts per 9 translated
into less baserunners and concluded that year b was the better era year, which is definately a bad stat for relievers

New piece up at mlbtr - linked to Zolecki - saying Phils still looking for OF help.

AWH~ I KNOW all about what they did with Hamels,AND I know why. okay? There's nothing you have to explain. You another who STILL doesn't get it.

This team needs help, agreed? Granted he's filled needs but if ANYONE thinks they're a playoff team is mistaken. Yes there a little better, but that's about it.

The ONLY FA's they sign were Adams & Lannan. Adams? Great move. Lannan: Rotational filler at best. Point is he had money to spend this off-season. He spent money on Adams & that's it.

Like I mentioned to Ice last week, He trades Pence, now he said he wants a corner OF'der for RF. His answer? Dom Brown. Pence is the much better player at the moment. Agreed?

You're right, I don't know the circumstances surrounding Howell's signing, but I'd be willing to bet the Phils weren't even in on him. You can forget Stanton & Upton. they ain't happening. And that's the point here. What is Amaro going to do from this point on to improve this team? There answer is not much. So before you or anyone else preaches to me about what I post, sit down & realize what Amaro HASN"T done. And very simply, he hasn't (yet) made this team into a playoff team. That what he has to do and he's failed in that regard. They will improve upon 81 wins for sure, but 90 (IMO) doesn't get them in.

id rather see dom brown get them ab's cause pence was a shaky fielder, although he did hit close to .300 while in philly, its just time to let dom brown play, cause he doesnt have trade value anymore

",,,sit down & realize what Amaro HASN"T done."

DPat, I do realize.

Look, I know you have an unimpeachable source who gives you inside info. So I guess the rest of us ar uninformed.

But let me ask you this:

Why do you assume Amaro can do anything he wants?
Why do you assume he operates in a vaccum, where there is no competition for players from other GMs?
Sure, he "hasn't" done certain stuff that you would have liked, but 'iddy boo boo'. Go grab a crying towel.
You want him to sign anyone and everyone without thinking - especially without thinking of how it affects the team long term. The time horizon for your thought process ends at your thought of the next hot free agent as you wipe the drool off of your chin.
You wrote: "...just refusing to spend money on any FA's". that is, based on history, a patently false statement.

Also, why do you assume that 90 wins won't get them into the playoffs when 88 - the Cardinals - was the cutoff in 2012? (The NL Central just got a lot tougher because the Cards, Reds, etc. no longer have the Astros to beat up on and pad their win totals.)

So please give logical and baseball based reasons why 90 wins won't do it.

And stop whining, as Iceman puts it, like a kid who didn't get his candy bar from mommy.

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