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Tuesday, January 01, 2013

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Abreu would be sub-optimal as a 1st baseman.

Spent some time watching the 100 greatest plays of 2012 on MLB. Awesome plays with several Mike Trout catches featured.

But as a complaining Phillies fan, it was tough to watch what seemed like a constant parade of heroics by ex-Phillies for their new team, and plays against Phillies. A catch and a walk off homer by Werth. A catch and a bases clearing hit by Pence with the Giants. Three homers by Ibanez. And for good measure, two Chipper Jones walk off home runs against the Phils.

The only Phillies generated play was the incredible catch by Kratz where he was leveled the instant he caught the ball but held on to it.

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.

So, the Red Sox need a first baseman, eh?

The wall is pretty far from the first base bag.

Come on now guys, we're talking about a gold-glove RF here. I'm sure he could handle 1B if he really wanted to.

Abreu would be sub-optimal as a 1st baseman.

On the other hand he makes an excellent sun dial.

Power hitting corner outfielder, just what the Philllies are looking for.
We should check this Abreu fella out.

I was just looking at Stanton's numbers. He's 22. They're disgustingly good.

What wouldn't people give up for him? Is there a limit? I'm curious. I'm not sure I wouldn't hand Miami a blank piece of paper and say 'list five players you want, and salary isn't an issue.'

Iceman, the problem, at least for the Phillies, is that other teams have better and more prospects to deal.

As some have posted before, a trade for Stanton would probably clean out any teams top prospects.

I'll bet he doesn't get moved for a couple of years, because the longe another team waits, the less he may cost in prospects.

Unless, of course, he has privately asked to be traded.

Lance Berkman

In a related story, the Phillies are working out Carl Yastrzemski in right field. Ruben Amaro Jr. stated, "I know he bats left but, to my mind, you can never have enough left-handed hitters."

Marlins to Phillies: "We're holding out for Profar and Olt; so, don't waste your breath asking us about Stanton."

I'm not sure I'd hesitate if the Marlins asked for Brown, Bastardo, and the Phillies top 5 prospects per Sickles' new list.

Olt, Profar, and Perez >>> Brown, Bastardo, and top 5 from Sickles' new list

The Phillies have no shot. Perhaps if Amaro still had Singleton, Cosart, and Santana, they'd have a shot at getting Upton.

BBB, while that sure sounds like a lot, one has to look at the history of these trades. Unless the trade involves young MLB players or "nar ready" MLB players (high minors), the teams getting the prospects almost always come up on the short end.

One exception of a trade that worked was when the Rangers and Reds swapped Hamilton and Volquez in a deal. Until Volquez developed arm issues, it was a win-win for both teams, though obviously Texas made out in the longer run.

Still, the Reds turned Volquez [and some dudes :) ] into Matt Latos, so in the long run they got what they wanted - a top-end of the rotation pitcher.

Usually, though, it doesn't work out for the team trading the superstar.

So, would I trade the top 5 Phillies prospects along with Brown and Bastardo for Stanton? Yeah, probably, because it's not like Stanton is an aging superstar, and with the exception of perhaps Biddle, I'm not sure the other 4 have much of a future in MLB.

But, again, I stand by my post above:

"...other teams have better and more prospects to deal."

The Phillies could offer their entire system, every single player, and I doubt it would be enough for Stanton. Phillies have some "intriguing" players, but no one who is a sure-fire starter much less a star. Biddle might be the closest to being a sure thing, but even he has a ceiling of a #2 and probably becomes a #3 starter.

Speaking of the Reds, they outperformed their Pythagorean by 6 games last season.

Did they improve themselves enough, or are they due for a fall like the 2007/2008 DBacks?

Then again, will Joey Votto for a full season be enough?

Myers deal is worth $7 million.

Pretty pricey for a 5th starter.

I certainly think there are better farm systems out there than the Phils-no doubt about it. However, I think BL groupthink is starting underestimate the Phillies current system/value of some players.

We have one of the worst farms in baseball...definitely in the bottom 5.

Re: Stanton, I'd rather get Trout. Is Stanton a 'complete' hitter or will he suffer from 'shift' defense and holes in his swing like Howard has?

Since Rangers may need an OF, the Marlins should ask about their prospects if they trade Giancarlo.

I've heard great things about Profar (Jeter-esque instincts). Everyone seems to love Olt but didn't he look terrible during his callup? Leonys Martin would be too expensive, and Martin Perez also seemed to take a step back this past season.

awh- Iargely agree with what you said, but what I meant was, in a perfect world where the Phils are the only team in exclusive negotiations with Miami, is there a price you wouldn't pay for him? Is there a line?

I personally don't think there is, but I'm wondering if anyone else would be reluctant to gut the system.

BedBeard: I agree. I'd rank them around 20 out of the 30 teams. No way are they in the bottom 5.

Problem with Phils farm is that while they have a lot of prospects who look like they'll eventually be able to help an MLB team they have no prospects who project as stars.

NEPP: Not according to Sickles. "Mid range organization" and "Overall, the Phillies don't rank at the top of the farm system pack, but they aren't bad either."

Not a ringing endorsement, but not a disaster either. Guys will take a step back, like Colvin did, but there's a lot of "upside" guys who look a little better than their ranking does.

Just to restate: I'm trying not to oversell the Pharm. The lack of "major league ready" guys who are all-star material is the main problem, but some of you write the same old tripe about the system wihout really taking a look.

Saw an interesting fact that ties into the discussion had about Vegas a few days back.

The Falcons, who have a first-round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, are 7-1 to win the Super Bowl. Seattle, who is a #5 seed and starting the playoffs this weekend on the road, are 6-1.

So the experts in Vegas, more knowledgeable than any other person or group of persons on earth, according to the odds they have set, think it is more likely that Seattle wins three games in a row on the road (they are less than a .500 team on the road during the regular season), plus one on a neutral field, than it is for the Falcons to win two games at home.

Can someone explain that to me?

Interesting names who DIDN'T make Sickels Top 20 Phils prospect list: Tyson Gillies, Larry Greene, Brody Colvin, Seth Rosin, Austin Hyatt and former BL "can't-miss" favorite Aaron Altherr.

BB: I think clearly though that NEPP knows more about our farm system than Sickels does.

Not even close.

BB, I don't think anyone underestimates the current Phils system. After all, it's pretty hard to "estimate" (or project) who will eventually make it to the show in the first place.

Methinks that some of the pessimism is related to the Lee trade to Seattle not reaping, to date, more than Aumont, who may wind up being only a margianl reliever because of the control issues, as well as the prospects surrendered in Pence trade.

I don't follow the minors as closely as some here do, bu tit seems to me that there is usually one (maybe two) MiL players who have unexpectedly good years - and those years possibly being breakout years. Ruf in 2012 is an example of that (Did anyone here see that coming?).

The Phils like to draft "tools" players, so maybe one of the tools guys has a breakout year and changes the perception of the system.

That said, the original question was centered around whether they have enough to obtain Stanton. Unless Sickles and others are horribly wrong about the potential of the Phillies' prospects (or the Marlins have a completely different opinion of them), in competition with other teams, the Phillies probably come up short.

But as to the prospects? Who knows? Maybe Quinn has a breakout year and makes Galvis expendable in a trade? Maybe Biddle advances and looks primed to take a rotation spot in 2014? Maybe Ruf's power surge is sustainable and he does occupy LF at the Zen? Maybe one or two of Pettibone, Morgan or Martin makes significant strides? Maikel Franco, anyone?

Maybe every single one of them flames out.

awh: Right, but that is pretty much everyone's farm system. Guys step up, others flame out, etc. I do think there would be better offers for Stanton, but it would really depend on what the Marlins were looking for.

Posters here get lazy when talking about the pharm, and fall back on "tools" stuff.

The Phillies system has quantity but lacks quality. We have the pieces to trade for big money or expiring contracts, but not for cost controlled young guys like Stanton or even Upton. The potential hi-end quality guys in the system are pretty far away, like Quinn or Tocci. Lot can change in a year, but as it stands right now, it's a system that might fill a hole here and there on the bench, or middle of the rotation maybe a league average everyday player (maybe), but it's a system that's going to leave the MLB club signing FA's or trading for big contracts to fill in high end talent on the roster for quite some time. That said, a good pick at #16 this year, a couple low-A guys have monster followup seasons, a good international signing or 2 and the farm system can rocket up the rankings in short order.

Problem with Phils farm is that while they have a lot of prospects who look like they'll eventually be able to help an MLB team they have no prospects who project as stars.

That's the biggest problem right there...we have zero impact prospects but rather a good handful of "He might help" level of guys.

Also, do those rankings reflect the Young/Revere trades? Sure, Bonilla and May aren't elite prospects but losing them would affect our ranking.

Yes, reflects those trades.

but some of you write the same old tripe about the system wihout really taking a look.

I follow the farm system far more than most around here do...FWIW. I think Sickels is being a bit optimistic about our prospects to say the least.

BleacherReport has them at #24 before the trades.

Most groups had us in a range of #23-#27 going into 2012 and its not as if a lot of our prospects took huge leaps forward. The Vic/Pence trades didnt bring that much talent back either.

Things that have really hurt the system are the Lee trade/Pence trade. Gave up a fair amount (Singleton/Santana/Colvin) for a year of Pence and Joseph/Rosin.

Lee trade really hurt. I don't think much of Aumont and the Phils could have Saunders instead or a package built around Morrow.

Saunders instead of Gillies

I dont believe that the Mariners were willing to give up Saunders or Morrow though...of course, we could have gotten Montero from NYY but we didnt shop him around at all.

Ok, so now BA and Sickles are both to be ignored.

I think the Phils were offered Saunders, but they wanted multiple prospects.

How could we have gotten Montero if RAJ didn't shop Lee around?

How did the Lee trade 'hurt the system'? They didn't lose any prospects/assets in the trade. They just massively underestimated the return they could/should have gotten.

They gave up more than just a 'fair amount' in the Pence trade. Joseph is a good prospect, but they gave up basically all their remaining assets- including a guy that could have potentially helped them very soon (Singleton)- for a guy that added nothing to the team during his time here. It was a disaster.

I'm not saying that at all, BB. I just think they're being a bit optimistic is all. BA loves toolshed prospects and so does the Phillies FO.

"Ok, so now BA and Sickles are both to be ignored."

In favor of Bleacher Report.

Bleacher Report? Really?

"BleacherReport has them at #24 before the trades."

BleacherReport?

NEPP, how authoritative have they been?

BA does, but Sickles doesn't necessarily like the toolshed guys.

Iceman, in hindsight,it's pretty obvious they didn't shop Lee because they didn't feel they had the time. I'll posit that had they waited, the public would have warmed to the idea of Halladay/Lee/Hamels going into 2010 to the point that the public outcry when they traded Lee would have been deafening.

It would have been a bigger PR disaster than they actually experienced.

Trading away Lee did necessitate trading for Oswalt. Happ & Villar haven't done much since, but Gose was a B+ guy last year for Sickles. So that's something, I guess. I'm not personally super high on him.

MG is still complaining about the Lee trade

NEPP thinks Bleacher Report matters after he says, "I follow the system more closely than others around here..."


I love you BL

BA had them at #27 going into 2012. Goldstein had them at #29. Nobody had huge leaps in development. Adding Martin and Joseph while subtracting Bonilla/May doesnt mean a huge leap to "mid-range". Either they were BS going into 2012 or they're BS now.

Take your pick. Go through our minor-league system and try to make a Top 10 or Top 15. Its pretty ugly.

TTI - Lee trade had a huge effect on this team. If they had a guy like Saunders who was offered to the Phils and this was reported(clout will chime in on this as his magic alert goes off), they wouldn't have needed to trade for Revere this offseason and could have used Worley/May as trade chips or simply had a better rotation with Worley/KK vs KK/Lannan.

More questions on whether or not if Morrow was readily available and just what else the Phils would have gotten in a package if they would have taken him.

In NEPP's defense, Bleacher Report does put together some of the best regarded and fairly comprehensive reviews of sport's WAGs & hottest athletes world-wide. There's no reason to believe that their top-notch ranking department couldn't also effectively turn it's talents to a more esoteric and less aesthetically pleasing topic like MLB prospects.

Let's wait and see when the official rankings come out from the various organizations this spring. I'd bet we're not around #15 (as a "mid-range" ranking would have us).

Wouldn't Ruf's quantum leap in the past year affect the ratings? I would think it would? I know he's still not an uber prospect but all those homeruns have to be worth something.

Considering that nobody outside of this website even considers Ruf to be a real prospect, no, his great year would not affect the system's ranking.

Most projections of him say upside of "minor-league slugger".

NEPP - Yup. It is a system that is marginally better going into this season than last season if you subtract out the May/Bonilla moves without any clear standout prospects, not a lot of MLB-ready talent, and a lack of real standout talent among positional or starting prospects.

The Phils are going to need to catch a few breaks and hope that most of their younger talent this year especially Brown/Ruf and in the bullpen make progress or this team prospects for '14 and '15 aren't looking so hot & they are headed to a Mets' type of purgatory after '08.

Normally there would be no chance of getting Stanton. But this is the Marlins we are talking about.

There's also a chasm between the quality of young talent the Nats & Braves have on their MLB rosters too.

I am cautiously optimistic about this season depending upon whole spring training looks but I do think it will be the last season for at least 1-2 years before the Phils are strong playoff contenders.

I mean, we all have our favorites, as far as propsect raters go, and that's fine. But, it really seems that people on here only read X so they confirm their own bias on a player.

Sickles had praise for Ruf as a sleeper prospect going into last season, and has adjusted his outlook accordingly.

Donc: here's Sickles writeup from the 30th on Ruf while grading out the Phillies system:

7) Darin Ruf, 1B-OF, Grade B-: I believe in the bat. Defense and age 26 keep him from elite prospect status, doesn't have further projection, but that's OK since he's already good. I felt Ruf was a nice sleeper pre-season but I did not expect 41 homers and he hit 10 more in winter ball. I thought he was more of a .260, 10-15-homer role player bat, but I can see him as a .280, 20-25 homer guy now.

Thanks jbird. That's kind of what I was getting at. He describes him as a sleeper a year ago. Now he is more than that. I know he's not a very hot commodity but his last year has come completely out of nowhere. I guess it doesn't change things dramatically but at least it's something. The biggest problem I see with our system is that once we traded Singleton just about all of our highest rated prospects are a few years away. It was true last year, and if you arent't high on Galvis, Aumont or Ruf, it's still true. I say all of this fully admitting that I am not as knowledgeable about our prospects as many here. It's my favorite aspect of BL. It's extremely helpful to me.

Technically, Galvis is no longer a prospect. Aumont is still but he has around 40-45 days of MLB service time now.

When doing up rankings for 2013.

If Ruf really did become a ".280, 20-25 homer guy" that would be pretty awesome.

Especially if he could actually play LF...

NEPP: I agree. I don't think of Galvis as a prospect either at this point. Aumont I would still consider a prospect. I mentioned them because if I didn't somebody would probably take issue.

If Ruf proves he can hit .280 with decent OBP (like he's had in the minors) and hit 20 - 25 HR, he'll be in LF at the Zen.

Charlie will not sit his 3rd best power option on the bench.


He also may bat 5th if he can hit with that kind of power.

Rollins
Young
Utley
Howard
Ruf
Chooch
Brown-berry
Revere
P

or, when Brown in in the lineup they may flip Brown and Chooch to break up the LHB.

Aumont, DeFratus, and Rosenberg are still technically prospects despite some MLB service time. I believe that Diekman is not though as he was up for a good bit of last year.

When it comes to our bullpen prospects at least.

In all the speculation over which OF the Phils will acquire, the best thing that could have possibly happened is if Brown and Ruf both turn into major league players, stick in the lineup, and produce this year. I'd take that over any FA signing we could have made, or any convoluted platoons we could have created.

MG: Yes they could've received more back for Lee. However, most people said the Phillies got more back for Lee then they gave up to get him, FWIW. They could've went after Saunders or Morrow but neither guy was a guarantee. Furthermore, they wouldn't be prospects anymore most likely.

The Pence trade- no argument there. Was very ridiculous.

NEPP: If you read the scouting stuff most places say that a few guys in the Phillies system became better prospects this year and the Phillies appear to be loaded with B/C prospects which are useful to the club. No standout stars necessarily but stars are not guarantees. I think Sickles and BA outline their rankings very well and I think they have much more validity to their rankings than Bleacher Report.

Fats: Along those same lines, I think one of the most under-rated reasons the Phillies won 102 games in 2011 was how much production they got from major league minimum type players. Think about Stutes, Worley, Bastardo, Brown, Mayberry. There was a lot of production there at very little cost. No matter how much the Phillies spend on payroll, you will always need some of these guys to come through. In 2011 the Phillies really made out with those guys.

donc-- Not to mention historically good starting pitching.

Fatti, agree on Brown and Ruf.

It would be the best of all possible worlds, but I wonder about the probability of it happening.

Cyclic: Obviously. But that isn't somthing easily overlooked or under-rated.

Duh. Yeah, sorry you're right. That wasn't the point you were making.

I agree and hope Brown/Ruf give us big contributions in 2013.

***I think Sickles and BA outline their rankings very well and I think they have much more validity to their rankings than Bleacher Report.
***

I look forward to their official rankings this Spring.

Buster Olney (who I'm not a huge fan of) brings up an interesting point today in his column that I am interested in the group's thoughts on. With the Astros going to the AL West, that reduces how often teams like the Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals will play them. Three teams that are around the Phillies in tier. It also reduces the amount of times the Phillies will have to play a team that they never seem to play well against.

Could the Astors NL absence play a role in our playoff chances this season- however small that role may be?

That depends on who we play instead of the Astros. If its, say, the Pirates, it wont be helpful.

I assume it means a few more interleague games but I honestly have no idea as I havent even really looked at our 2013 schedule.

I imagine that if you went and searched the Beerleaguer archives thoroughly, the only time you would ever see the words "can't miss" and "Aaron Alther" in proximity was a Clout post.

If Ruf hits .280 with 20-25 HRs he will have a decent chance to win the NL ROY. That's a really lofty goal.

I do think Ruf will hit LHP at the MLB and do so with enough pop to ensure he sticks at the MLB level the next few years. Question if he can play LF though passably enough to not be a complete disaster and just how well he hits RHP pitching.

More I think of it Darin Ruf's path kind of reminds me of Brian Daubach.

- Both guys were below or even completely off the radar screens of talent evaluators until they started putting up later in their minor league career (Daubach in '96 at AA at age 24; Ruf at 25 at AA in '12)

- Both guys burst on to the scene with a real breakout year where they hit 30+ HRs with impressive overall numbers (Daubach did it in '98 with 35 HRs for AAA Charlotte at 26; Ruf did it last year with 38 HRs for AA Reading at age 25)

- Both had huge question marks on what positions they would play at the MLB level due to a lack of athletic ability (Daubach played 1B almost his entire minor league career and played sparingly in LF for the Red Sox with almost all of his starts in Fenway; Ruf has played 1B in his minor league career and only started playing a little LF last year in Reading)

- Both guys have a lot of question marks about their ability hit offspeed stuff at the MLB level (for Daubach it was LHP and often made him look bad and he couldn't hit a curveball from a LHP to save his life; for Ruf it is RHP although I am not sure what particular offspeed pitch he might struggle with more).

- Both guys became fan favorites (Daubach quickly became a fan favorite at Fenway even though he was a fairly limited player and I bet Ruf will to if he hits this year)

- Both guys were kind of players that got chances because of a lack of a clear solution at the MLB level (Sox had no solution at 1B in '99 after Vaughn left that offseason and Dauback won a spot with the club with a good spring & because of his power potential; Phils have no real solution in LF and Ruf is in a great spot to win a regular role in LF for the Phils this spring)

Daubach wasn't a great player but he was productive for the Red Sox with a great season in '99 and an overall line of .266/.342/.492 (.833 OPS or 111+ OPS) with 84 HRs in 4 seasons with the Red Sox.

I don't see Ruf putting up an .833 OPS with the Phils over the next 4 years but I could see him becoming a guy who hits around ~20 HRs while hit .250-.270 if he gets enough PT.

MG: A minor point, but one that a lot of people could stand to note. Ruf doesn't have to put up an .833 OPS match Daubach's productivity (a 111 OPS+). You're failing to adjust for the decline in leaguewide offense.

Last year Chase Utley had a .793 OPS, good for a 113 OPS+.

If offense levels stay the same, Ruf could put up a .785 OPS and basically be worth the same as Daubach. It's something to keep in mind when making historical comparisons.

Isn't it interesting that when Brett Myers was a starting pitcher, he constantly whined about wanting to be a reliever. And now that he's had some success as a reliever, he whined for a couple of months that he wanted to be a starter.

Translation? Starters usually get paid more money.

Jack - Yeah that's a good point including Ruf's power numbers. Hitting even 20 HRs means something again.

Only 38 guys did that in the NL last year. In 2000, it was 50. In 2001, it was 48.

I think Ruf can be a 25+ homerun guy given enough 500 bats. Whether he sinks or swims probably depends on whether he will he be able to hit .280 in those at bats or .220. As mentioned above, Daubach is probably a best case scenario comp for Ruf. No reason he can't do it, but the landscape is littered with failed AAAA players. I very badly hope he succeeds though.

MG: I don't recall Morrow being offered to the Phils in the Lee trade. Saunders was offered and the Phils chose Gillies instead.

There was a long debate between Jack and I over that choice. He thought that Gillies was a stud, based on his numbers at High Desert and clearly the superior choice. I liked Saunders better because of his power.

TTI - Cards went 11-4 and Reds went 10-5. It will probably hurt them a little bit (maybe 1-2 games in the standings).

Jack: I found only one instance of "can't miss" and "aaron altherr" together in a comment on Beerleaguer. It read:

"Be curious to hear your thoughts on Beerleaguer Spring Training "can't miss" faves Tyson Gillies and Aaron Altherr. After dozens of posts on them I haven't seen a thing in weeks from their advocates."

Posted by clout on June 21, 2011

"I do think Ruf will hit LHP at the MLB..."


MG, the implication of your post is that he will not be able to hit RHP.

On what do you base this opinion?

I don't remember the argument (or maybe I wasn't around at the time), but I'm still shocked anyone would have chosen Gillies over Saunders if they were both offered. And it appears the Phillies held out for Gillies because they preferred him to Saunders (and Seattle would have rather traded Saunders!).

Saunders was BA's 65th overall prospect in baseball going into 2009 and was the #30 prospect going into 2010. Gillies was never a top 100 prospect.

Gillies was coming off his first big season in high A-ball at age 20 and Saunders was coming off his 3rd big season in AAA at age 22.

Perhaps it was a matter of timing. Going into 2010, the Phils had Ibanez, Werth and Victorino and were very happy with those three. Saunders wasn't cracking the starting lineup so he'd spend his age 23 season at AAA. Then in 2011, Phils would have Ibanez, Victorino and, they hoped, Brown. That would push Saunders arrival back to 2012, in the mind of the Phillies front office.

awh: Well, I won't speak for MG here, but considering it's pretty generous to assume a 26-year old non-prospect with one season at the upper level of the minors can hit *any* sort of major-league pitching well, I don't see what's out of line with that opinion.

I actually support giving Ruf a full-time shot, mostly because I think you might as well roll the dice and play the chance he gives you some much-needed right-handed pop. But that's a far cry from expecting him to be some sort of offensive savior. The odds are, he isn't very good.

Interesting note re: Saunders vs. Brown

Michael Saunders first 635 PAs in the ML through age 24 season:
196/263/306, 569 OPS, 60 OPS+, 12 HR, 45 RBI

Domonic Brown first 492 PAs in the ML through age 24 season:
236/315/388, 703 OPS, 90 OPS+, 12 HR, 58 RBI

Plenty of folks would have called Saunders a bust at that point, but in 2012, he did this:

247/306/432, 738 OPS, 110 OPS+, 19 HR, 57 RBI, 19 SB

I'm not sure many folks would complain about that from a guy in his age 25 season.

Jack: I'm guessing awh's question was related to whether Ruf had shown evidence of a platoon split that would suggest he'd have significant difficulty with RHP. But I don't want to speak for awh, either.

awh - I would say at a say a better than a .720-.730 OPS vs RHP or so in order to say a regular if you forced me to pick a more specific figure.

Clout: I actually did check the archives for this one. The day that the Saunders/Gillies report came out, and you were astonished by it, I wrote this:

"I would definitely be surprised if the Phillies actually did choose Gillies instead of Saunders. While I like Gillies more than some on here (and Saunders is far from a sure thing), there did seem to be consensus among scouts and experts that Saunders is the better player."

What I disagreed with you on was the veracity of the report, not that Gillies was a better prospect than Saunders. You took it as gospel that the Phillies made that choice (interesting, considering you always discount reports that say the Phillies have a budget, but you were perfectly willing to accept one reporter's claim here). I questioned it, specifically *because* Saunders was so widely considered the better prospect.

Sure, I happened to like Gillies more than you (I had no idea at the time that Gillies would suffer two years' worth of leg injuries and apparently was a total screw-up in the makeup department). But I always acknowledged Saunders was the better prospect.

Ruf has had notable splits during his minor league career but i can't find the numbers & minor league splits are publicly available anymore.

MG, here are Ruf MiL splits:

http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=573131&split=3000


Jack and MG, KAS got the point of my question correctly.

I posted those splits in prior threads, and since MG is a regular poster here it stands to reason that he had seen them.

While Ruf does have pronounced splits, what in those numbers suggests he will not be able to adequately hit MLB RHP?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/

ZiPS fwiw

Ruf .255/.321/.420 -- 17HR, 99 OPS+
Brown 265/.332/.461 -- 18HR, 112 OPS+
Young .279/.319/.401 -- 11HR, 94 OPS+
Revere 285/.326/.342 -- 1HR(!), 82 OPS+

Also, these were Ruf's splits last year at Reading - his "breakout" year:

http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=573131&split=2012

Only an .894 OPS against RHP? What a bum!

MG, awh posted the splits for Ruf in the minors. He has notable splits in that he absolutely KILLS LHP, but still hits RHP pretty well.

I see that I should have refreshed before my last post, as awh was all over it.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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