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Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Comments

Waiting for the announcement on a 3 team blockbuster trade where we end up with Stanton & J-Upton while only giving up Brown, Kendrick, & Matt Rizzoti.

"Rolo~ I'm not talking about aveg runs per games. That can be skewed if runs are scored in bunches."


Ummm, Dpat, this is what normally happens in baseball, because even the best offensive teams sometimes get shut out.

Honestly the more he sits out there the more I love the idea of Michael Bourn on a one year deal in the outfield if they could work that in. The draft class this year is supposedly weak so it may be worth it to boot the first round pick.

A line-up of:

Bourn
Young
Utley
Howard
Ruiz (when back)
Rollins
Ruf/Brown
Revere

would be pretty good from top to bottom.

"Although, how could BAP have possibly gotten the impression that you thought the offense was fine as is,..."


Dunno, Fatti. If you read all of my posts you'd know that I have advocated upgrades in the areas that could use them. I was for signing Swisher, and even Hamilton (though not at 5/125). I did not want Upton even at 5/55, but would take Bourn on a fair contract. I endorsed a trade for Soriano as long as Brown wasn't included.

But I get it. Guys like you and bap find one isolated post and pretend that it's the only one. Seems reasonable to me, and is an excellent demonstration of reading comprehension and memory.

TTI, I like the idea of Bourn also, but IMHO there's no way the Phillies will give up the draft pick for only one year of the player.

Amaro just signed me to a minor league deal. My ERA was 12.50 KK /9 at -1 in high school.

If the Phillies get Bourn, they need to go with a Runnin' Red Birds' early 80s style of play. Just steal, steal, steal.
That said, I don't think there is any chance Bourn signs here or anywhere else for 1 year. People were saying that Prince Fielder could be had on a 1 year make good deal when he was still a FA late last offseason. There are 3 and likely 4 year offers out there for Bourn. He's just holding out for something bigger/longer. 3 or 4 isn't bad enough that he'll take a 1 year deal.

Luis, what?

awh/rolo: "Guys like you and bap find one isolated post and pretend that it's the only one."

One isolated post? You have never written "one isolated post" on ANY topic.

Oh awh, I've read pretty much all of your posts, though I might have missed one or two here or there. You do post a whole lot, you know.

And yes, I'm well aware that you've mentioned that you would have been in favor of nabbing Swisher, or Bourn/Soriano.

But you spend so much time lambasting others for mentioning that they have concerns with the offense, it's hard to know if that was just you paying lip service, or if you really meant it.

Filled to the brim with pitchers the "The Adder" is ready to strike.

If Rube signs anyone of these outfielders who are left for meaningful dollars, then he's a worse GM than I think he is. And I already think he's pretty bad.

Who on the free agent market now would be worth even 2 million to this team with its apparent budgetary restrictions? I don't see anyone who is a definite upgrade over what they have now.

Rube needs to pick up more trash for AAA and take a very long nap until pitchers and catchers report. He said he's scared of his outfield situation. I'm actually only scared when he talks about his outfield situation.

Fatti, the only people I lambast are the ones who foolishly continue to argue that the offense is the reason this team was .500 in 2012 despite the evidence to the contrary.

These same posters also continue their line if thinking by insisting the offense is the only area of the team that needs upgrading.

As this team stands now, despite the addition of Adams the bullpen still scares the hell out of me, moreso than any other area.

See now awh, I think you're the one being disingenuous now. I don't think anybody, even DPat, has claimed that the offense was the "only" thing that needed upgrading. I think any outcries have been in response to what many have seen as a failure to have upgraded the offense AT ALL, while having at least potentially upgraded the pitching/defense.

I don't necessarily agree with this opinion, but I can see its merit.

Phillies interested in Ryan Theriot, wouldn't be a bad move and would allow Galvis a full year at AAA.

awh: "the only people I lambast are the ones who foolishly continue to argue that the offense is the reason this team was .500 in 2012 despite the evidence to the contrary."

A league average offense is certainly one of the reasons why a team would .500

Theriot on the Phils' radar!

Now we just need to trade for Cuddyer and DPatrone's dream offensive juggernaut is complete.

Rolo~ I know the best teams get shut out. happens. I've been saying they shouls add another bat. And I satnd by the position. Then, astute people as yourself tell me that they average 4+ runs per game and that's great. The pitching didn't hold. Granted, the staff didn't pitch as well as in 2011. But Lee pitched bettwer than his record indicated. He didn't get a lot of support. Hamels could have won 20. The 'pen really let us down. I get all that.

And all I'm saying is let's get a RH bat to balance out the lineup,provide some pop and protect Howard. Because right now I believe we can win 90, but I don't think that gets us in. With the potential for a little more offense no matter whom it comes from, we could win 95. That will get us in. Did I expect that RAJ would sign a guy like Upton? Yes. That didn't happen. But to do nothing as far as a FA? No. Does he realize now that hwe has to do something? Maybe. So, now we'll see what happens. Gotta go.

I love how smitty and Dpat keep bringing out the "scared" quote. You guys really have reading comprehension issues don't you? The quote was referring to a double platoon but you've fitted it to your fears of the entire outfield.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Pretty much a 72 for you guys.

"the only people I lambast are the ones who foolishly continue to argue that the offense is the reason this team was .500 in 2012 despite the evidence to the contrary."

What exactly is this "evidence to the contrary?" The fact that our bullpen stunk tells us that our bullpen was a big reason for our .500 record. It doesn't tell us that our offense WASN'T a big reason for our .500 record.

Let's get Theriot and hope he can make it 3 WS Championships in a row

Btw, just to get the facts out on Theriot before someone talks about how he'd be a good pickup: since 2010 he has a 78 OPS+ and (according to BR) has accumulated negative WAR.

Unless he is being used to keep Michael Martinez out of the dugout the way the American Gladiators used to block contestants from scoring in Powerball, or unless he is in fact the leprechaun from the Lucky Charms box, he would be a terrible waste of money and space.

BAP hits the nail on the head. Bravo.

Iceman, pretty much exactly what I was posting about Theriot around this time last year. Waste of space then, waste of space now. Moving on...

I'm thinking Ruben imagines an outfield of Delmon Young, Nyjer Morgan and Austin Kearns.

Yeah, baby. Let's add an outfielder.

Silver lining to possibly adding Theriot

- It puts Mini Mart either further down on the organizational depth chart.

Wait, Chase Utley is alive?

On MLBN, RAJ.... Chatting up Utley and Howard, Kratz, Revere's defense; FA OFs too expensive; doesn't like double platoon, still looking.....

Phillies OD:

Rollins 6
Revere 8
Utley 4
Howard 3
Young 5
Brown 9
Nix/Mayberry 7
Kratz 2
Hamels 1


I know he OPS and WAR are bad but I still like Theriot. He has no power and barely walks, but he still strikes out little and has decent speed. For a middle infielder backup that is enough for me.

I think he still is hoping to get on a team with a less established starter at 2B but maybe he will figure the old guys INF on the Phillies would get him many opportunities.

On the OF front, I cannot think any FA on a major league deal would help. Of the names, I like Sweeney the best but he has no power.

PhxPhilly, Hairston would "help" by adding depth.

But he wouldn't be an upgrade.

Bourn would be an big upgrade from Revere, and would help, but he's looking for a LT, big money deal.

"One isolated post? You have never written "one isolated post" on ANY topic."

That caused me to fountain.

Morse to the Mariners via 3-way with the A's. A.J. Cole sent to the Nats.

Does this guy Cole help the Nats this season?

Cole was originaly drafted by the Nats so I guess they know him.

Nah, Cole's still in single A... high upside prospect that struggled in A+, got sent down to A, and finished strong.

Chase doing "baseball activities 5 days a week". He's trading cards with the kids in the neighborhood.

I don't think anybody, even DPat, has claimed that the offense was the "only" thing that needed upgrading."

Fata~ Correct! I knew the 'pen needed help and was even hoping for another starter. I was not however banking on them trading Worley. But still, the 'pen I think is a lot better. I'm not totally offensive minded. I do want the offense, to produce consistantly enough, as to allow our pitchers to make mistakes. Make the team better in all areas if you can, and try not to foresake any one particular area. It all goes together.

Rolo was just a bad attempt at humor.

DPat, what do you consider to be "consistent" production by an offense?

AJ Cole would be amongst the Phillies top 3 prospects.

Nats have lots of talent.

Though I certainly agree that Halladay, Utley, and Howard will be the biggest possible upgrades for the 2013 Phillies, that is no reason to avoid upgrades elsewhere.

Obviously it would require some unsuspected performance to overcome poor seasons from any of the big names but Amaro should be trying to make improvements where possible.

Phillies are in a tough spot with an aging expensive roster and few known replacements. It probably makes more sense for them to give it one last try since the core assembled is extremely rare.

Rolo~ What I mean by that don't get 4 runs & 10 hits 1 night, then get no runs and 2 hits the next. There was a lot of that last year. At one point they were averaging 1.85 runs per game. Thsat's not good enough & puts too much pressure on the pitchers.

Give your pitcher an opportunity to win when they pitch well and when they don't at least have enough to try to get them off the hook. Fair enough?

I think Rizzo did about as well as he could with Morse given the circumstances. And he did the right thing by acquiring prospects instead of getting a lesser player for the sake of adding MLB-ready talent.

Now he can finish off his off-season with a nice spa weekend courtesy of Scott Boras.

Now the Phils can get Morse.

"What I mean by that don't get 4 runs & 10 hits 1 night, then get no runs and 2 hits the next. There was a lot of that last year."

This happens to every team in the league. Spare me.

DPat, let me remind you that your idea of a good offense would have us with Cuddyer and Theriot in the startin lineup. That's who you wanted to add last year.

And I know that you probably understand the other improvements needed other than the offense. But all you talk about is adding offense, and it's been that way for three years now. It's the same with BAP, only in your case you don't simply assume everyone on the team sucks. You're identifying an area that you think is a weakness- BAP has repeatedly claimed the team sucks since the minute the 2008 World Series ended.

I agree with your viewpoint much more than his, but I can see why people might think you are overly fixated on the offense.

When Rube told the Inquirer last week that the team we have is the one that will open the season it made me 95% certain he'd trade for or sign an outfielder.

Now that he is saying he is shopping for one, it makes me 95% certain the team we have is what will open the season.

Let's see what he says next week.

DPat, I get what you mean, but methinks you have unrealistic expectations.

Take a look at this:


http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/inning_summary.cgi?year_game=2012&team_id=TEX#gotresults&year=2012&team_id=TEX&ajax=1&submitter=1


It's the run distribution for the 2012 Rangers, the highest scoring MLB offense last season.

You'll note that they scored 3 runs or less in 62 of the 162 games they played - 38% - over 1/3 of the time, and their record in those games was 15 - 47 [.242].

It happens to even the best teams.
_____________________________________________________________


Compare that to the 2012 Phillies who scored 3 runs or less in 76 games - 47% - and their record was 19 - 57 [.250].

In the 86 games they scored 4 runs or more, the 2012 team was 62 - 24 [.721].


Contrast that with the 2011 Phillies, who scored 3 runs or less in 77 games - 48% - and their record was 30 - 47 [.390].

In the 85 games they scored 4 runs or more, the 2011 Phillies were 72 - 13 [.847].

Everyone is worried about the draft pick with Bourn - if he's on a one-year deal and plays well, you make the qualifying offer (around $14M next year). If he accepts, no big deal - you get him on another one-year deal, avoiding a long-term commitment. If he declines the qualifying offer - as he probably will - you get a comp pick, so you're not actually out a pick in the long run.

The only danger is if Bourn craters next year. Unless you think that's likely, he's a great pickup on a one-year deal, draft pick and all.

BTW, AJ Cole is a terrific pickup for the Nats. His heater is mid-90s and he's improving his curve and changeup. His K/BB ratio is excellent.

He had problems when he was promoted to the hitter-friendly California League in mid-season lsat year, but supposedly he was tired. The Nats will start him in the Carolina League, where he's age appropriate at 21 and the ballparks are not as hitter friendly.

He projects as a #2 or #3.

Treinen isn't nearly as good. Although he held his own in Cal league, he was also old for that level at 24. He too has a good mid-90s fastball and excellent command, but his secondary pitches aren't as good as Cole's.

He projects as backend rotation guy or middle reliever.

Nats are owed a third prospect, but I suspect he will be organizational filler.

Deal is also great for the A's (who get Jaso), where the catcher position has been weak past several years.

I think the Nats did very well here. They get a pretty high upside prospect, and they have a 2 year plan at 1B instead of a 1 year plan.

This was one of the minor benefits to the Nats signing Soriano. It allowed them to deal Morse for a higher end prospect, rather than a major-league reliever. That's a smart move, if you can do it.

I know it can seem like some of us are just praising everything Rizzo does, and so I understand why people are fighting back on it. But he just happens to be doing a lot of good things. I have no reason to be biased one way or the other. It just seems like they're making a whole series of smart moves. I wish I didn't think so, but I do.

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