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« Scattered thoughts on Michael Young | Main | Phils add to pitching inventory; winter league update »

Sunday, December 09, 2012

Comments

I like the Young trade much more than any 2-year deal (overpay!!) for Kevin Youkilis. Backs never really heal unless you're a youngster and real lucky.

With a 2-year deal, who knows; whoever signs Youkilis might be on the hook for an endless procession of 60-day DLs in '14, if not sooner.

Sympathy for frandsen? He had a 55 game run but is clearly a AAAA player and not a third baseman. Will be a good utility guy. Most importantly he keeps mini mart in LHV.

Keeping mini-mart in LV is a good thing. Just sayin'...

Even with last year I just feel a lot safer at third with Young than Frandsen.

I'll be okay with the Young and Revere moves depending on what Amaro does next.

Still need corner OF with thump (Swisher or Hamilton), setup man, and backend of the rotation pitcher.

Jair Jurrjens, Chris Young, and Jeff Karstens would be worth a 1 year low base salary deal that is incentive laden on innings pitched. They'd be there in case Cloyd and/or KK falter.

Mike Adams is the only reliable 8th inning guy out there. Maybe giving someone like Matt Lindstrom, Scott Atchinson, or someone along those lines a 1 year deal.

Also, the Dodgers have something like 8 starting pitchers under big contracts. Might wanna see what it takes to get Chris Capuano.

Good catch on Jurrjens, Carson. He would be a great guy to pursue as a 4th/5th starter. He can be quite dominant for stretches at a time.

The Young move also helps the bench in that, barring injury, Mini is gone and Frandsen/Galvis now replace Wigginton/Mini as the infielders.

Swisher would be the obvious guy to pursue to round out the lineup, with Adams as the 8th inning guy. Swisher/Jurrjens/Adams should be doable at this point, right?

08, 09 and 11 were really good years for Jurrjens. He'll only be 27 this season. They'd really be buying low on this guy if that's the way they try to go.

Jurrjens: No Way. The guy has lost 4+ mph off his fastball since 2010. His WHIP was 1.86 last year. Yeah he's 27, but he looks totally shot. It sounded like the Braves have been trying to move him for a while with no takers.

Capuano I could get behind. He's owed 5 million for next year with an option for 2014. Since he pitched pretty decently last year, I imagine there is a legitimate market for him.

Phils signed righty Zack Miner to a minor league deal.

Repost from AWH in last thread:

"Train, IMHO, you, like many others here, tend to overemphasize the recent past in your thinking.

Let's review:

There seems to be universal agreement here that 2013 will be more dependent on Halladay, Howard and Utley's performances than anything else.

Therefore, what you are saying is that you expect them, collectively, to produce the way they did last season.

What happens if Utley and Howard play full seasons? Howard had 56 RBI in only 71 games. Utley had an OPS of .793, with 45 RBI in only 83 games. Will having them producing for a full season make a difference?

Halladay had his worst season since 2000, and his second worst EVER. His health is the only concern, but surely the FO is monitoring it, and would have been hesitant to trade Worley if they thought Doc couldn't rebound. He doesn't need to be as good as he was in 2010/11, and if he's only as good as he was in 2007 it will still be a huge lift in production from 2012.

With his work ethic and drive you expect a 2012?

So, methinks you need to consider that all three of them will be more productive this season.

On what basis do you ass-u-me they won't be?"

AWH...It seems you are the one making ass-umptions. I said nothing about Howard, Utley and Halliday. However, since you brought them up, I'll address them. Yes, Ryan did knock in 56 runs in 1/2 a season...all while batting a lusty .219. He still can't hit a ball to the left side and he still gets himself out more often than not. You also seem to be forgetting about the 78 runs that were knocked in by the other guys that played 1B. I too think Chase will have a better year than in '12. However, we have to see him play first. He's missed significant time in each of the last 2 seasons and his power is nowhere close to what is once was. Roy Halliday is an icon in baseball and a sure fire 1st ballot HOF'er. But even the best slow with age. Very few pitchers not using PEDs can maintain their dominance into their mid 30's. Roy's fastball has been slowing. If anyone sees it going back into the 93 mph range again, I think they are not being realistic. We still don't have a RH home run threat. Chooch will miss the first 25 games and when he's back he will be without his vitamins. We still don't have anyone who can get anyone out in the 8th inning. We traded our #4 SP and don't have a replacement. Our named Right Fielder (Dom) is still very unproven. The entire infield is well north of 30 years old....
How can you NOT think we are currently the 3rd best team in the division?

Iceman - Depends on what Jurrjens base will be.

Jurrjens has had all kind of medical injury problems especially with his right knee (plant knee) including 2 surgeries the past 3 years & reoccurring bouts of knee inflammation which have sidelined him each of the last 2 years.

His upside is better than a guy like Liriano or Karstens but I would rather each of them than Jurrjens next year.

Chris Young is a stiff and I don't want the Phils to give him any kind of deal unless it is a minor league one.

We have some of the dumbest baseball writers in this city. Wow. These guys prob never even played baseball. They prob put glove on wrong hand. Not all but certain few...

Liriano...oh hell no! Can take that kind of wildness.

Chris Young is a stiff, but an effective stiff when on the mound. His problem- staying on the mound. That's why you throw him a minor league deal or something like 1 yr $800K with IP incentives or starts incentive.

Scrap the plant knee. Jurrjens also had issues with his shoulder and an oblique strain in '11 and shoulder inflammation in '10.

Jurrjens a complete crapshoot to stay healthy and probably a poor bet to avoid the DL.

From Crasnick:

"Amaro stills wants to add a veteran presence to the bullpen, do a "little bit more" to improve their outfield, and is open to acquiring a "low-risk, high-reward type of guy" for the back of the rotation"

I still have a strong feeling that veteran presence to the pen will be Lyon (Ed Wade's former ties to him).

A 'little more' in the OF to me means a guy like Scott Hairston or Berkman. Definitely not Swisher and probably not even Ross.

" ...he still gets himself out more often than not."

Train, you just described every single player in the history of Major and Minor League baseball.

Unless you know of a guy that hit .500+?

MG- I didn't even mean giving Jurrjens a MLB deal necessarily. But if they're going to go cheap for the rotation, they could do a lot worse than Jurrjens.

I'd also caution against assuming Amaro is going to target a certain player because less than a week ago you were going on and on how he was going to bend over for Bourn.

Iceman - Amaro's targeting a RHP reliever who might be a 'setup guy' or at least a backend piece and a RH OF bat.

Just a question of price range and what Amaro chooses to do with the $19-$20M he has under the luxury tax threshold.

Indians to sign Mark Reynolds for 1 year/$6 M

Though, he'll be playing 1B.

I may be in the minority here but I would rather see the Phils go a bit cheaper on an additional OF bat and really target pitching.

Love to see Capuano here as a 4th starter especially if the Dodgers add yet another starter & look for another team to pick up Capuano's contract. Even at $6M, he gives the Phils plenty of flexibility.

MG- you aren't in the minority, but it would have to be a really good pitcher that would be a clear upgrade.

I wonder if Soriano is still a target. Now that they could pick up more salary, perhaps the asking price in players wouldn't be as high. Certainly would rather have him than Hairston.

MG,
Pitching is our biggest need now that Worley's gone. You need 6 decent starting pitchers going into a season in order to keep 5 spots filled, allowing for the injuries and wear and tear along the way. We have 4.

Iceman - No interest in seeing Hairston here either. His numbers against RHP stink the last 3 years:

.218/.289/.420 with 22 HRs (.708 OPS) in 432 ABs

and a guy who has decent but not spectacular numbers vs LHP

.263/.308/.464 with 15 HRs (.772 OPS) in 373 Abs

Bad option defensively too especially in RF.

If you ask me, the Phils already have a guy like Hairston on their roster in Ruf. Hairston might be a tad bit better defensively but he's still below average too. Playing $4-$5M/year for Hairston on a multi-year deal would be a real mistake. Don't see the upside in signing him.

Soriano to me is like Hamilton, I really don't have any interest at any price. I do like the idea of Swisher, i just don't think the price and years will make sense. Something tells me, though, we're holding onto the 2013 pick. Anybody know if this is supposed to be a good draft?

MG - I'd be worried about Capuano's fly-ball tendencies in Philly. He's better off staying in a pitchers' park (true for all pitchers, I suppose, but more so for him).

Soriano's an interesting target - a righty power bat and a good defender in LF with the arm for RF. The Cubs owe him 2 more years at $18M per. If he were on the free-agent market, he'd top Ryan Ludwick's deal (2 years, $7.5M per) - maybe $9-10M per. Get the Cubs to cover half and he'd be worth a look if they don't ask for too much in return.

" It sounded like the Braves have been trying to move him for a while with no takers."

Well, if that's the case, UBIK, then maybe he can be had for a small guarantee and an incentive laden contract that doesn't represent a lot of risk.

If he can still pitch he's probably got as good a chance to crack the rotation in Philly as anywhere else.

Shame about him, though. When he was younger he sure looked like he would develop into a pitcher who who be somewhere near the top of a rotation.

Royals get Shields and Wade Davis for Wil Myers and other prospects. Interesting.

Phils seem to be fixated on right-handed power but to me planning on giving Nix significant PT in LF next year is a mistake.

Even Ruf for all of his unknowns at least has upside potential if he is used in a limited role (200-250 ABs where at least 40% of those ABs come against LHP).

Planning on giving Nix significant PT in LF/RF (say 350-400 ABs) going into the season would be a mistake.

MG- do you mean Capuano as a guy Amaro would target to upgrade the staff? I would think he's someone who fits the profile of what he's talking about, not necessarily an upgrade at the expense of upgrading the corner OF.

Capuano will be 34 and has a 91 ERA+ the last two years as a starter, along with giving up 52 HRs the last two years pitching his home games in two pitchers parks. If they traded for him they'd have him for 2 years, 12 million.

That seems like the type of guy Amaro is talking about, to me. Not a guy like Jackson or Dempster that would truly upgrade the rotation. Maybe I'm missing something.

@ColonelTom Soriano "is a good defender" with an arm "to play right field...?" Maybe my memory is bad and someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall that to be the case.

Capuano is pretty similar to Joe Blanton. Your slightly below average pitcher who has pretty decent peripheral stats, but gets killed by the home run ball.

He'd be an adequate 4th/5th starter, but he's not worth giving up anything of value for the right to pay him $6 million.

Don't know what his health is like after last year's injury or his contract size for that matter, but as far as the Dodgers go, I'd rather buy low on Ted Lilly than semi-high on Capuano, who never did anything for me when he was with the Brewers.

"...planning on giving Nix significant PT in LF next year is a mistake."

MG, where have you seen or heard that they are planning this?

Iceman - As an upgrade over Cloyd or Pettibone? Yeah.

Capuano has got 1 yr/$6M with a $6M option ($1M buyout) in '14.

HRs are his Achilles' heel especially on nights where his sinker isn't working. Otherwise, he gets enough Ks and keeps the BBs to a minimum that he can get by.

Only be too if the Dodgers didn't ask for anything in return in terms of legit prospects if the Phils take on Capuano's salary either.

Given the FA market this year too, anything less than ~$6M guaranteed or so is going to either get your garbage or a injury-laden veteran that Jurrjens who probably gets $3-4M base with decent incentive upside potential.

Blanton got 2 yr/$15M. Baker got a 1 yr/$5.5M. Guthrie got 3 yrs/$25M. Baker was the guy I really wanted but Epstein made a smart move by signing him really early (11/13) guessing that the FA pitching market would be expensive. Epstein guessed right.

Hell, even Colon got $3M from the A's and garbage pitcher like Francis got $1.5M and a fair amount of incentives from the Rockies.

awh - Didn't. It was only if they sign a guy like Hairston who is more of a platoon player.

Royals just traded one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball (Myers) plus a top 50 pitching prospect (Odorizzi), and a couple other guys, for two years of James Shields and a bullpen guy in Wade Davis.

I'm not unsympathetic to trading prospects while they're still prospects to get an established star, but this seems dumb. For one, you usually want to wait until you're ready to win a title to start dealing from your farm (the Nats would fall into this category now). Second, you probably still want to avoid dealing the best hitting prospect in all of baseball for two years of a #2 pitcher.

But hey what do I know? I thought Dom Brown was going to be a good player.

I agree w/ Jack RE: Capuano. And personally I'm tired of watching pitchers w/ sinkers that fail to sink & sliders that fail to slide. It's annoying to me that the Phillies even need another starter right now. Kendrick in the rotation was/will be difficult enough to stomach.

That said, the Royals seemed pretty intent on trading Wil Myers, so they may have some information asymmetry working in their favor.

In the abstract, though, it's hard to justify trading top prospects for a shot at 85 wins if everything breaks right.

Jack: KC hasn't won as many as 85 games since 1989. Probably looks pretty good from where they're sitting.

Pblunts - My impression was that Soriano had improved significantly in the outfield the last couple of years. FanGraphs gives him outstanding defensive ratings over the last three seasons (+8.4 UZR/150 from 2010-2012, 8th among 34 LFs with 1000+ innings). Baseball-Reference has him significantly below average in all three seasons, though. Meh.

Truth be told, we can probably get most of his production out of a Nix/JMJ platoon cheaply if both guys stay healthy - or better yet, Ruf will do a vintage Bull impression with the bat as well as the glove.

Gtown you did watch Kendrick the second half, right? I don't understand wtf people want out of a 4th or 5th starter in this day and age. Can't have all stars at every spot, right?

Dave - If you sign another solid starter, KK is their 5th starter.

Here is a list of the veteran starters the Phils might look at if Amaro is looking at a minimal base with incentive-upside (removes Lohse, Marcum, E. Jackson, Dempster):

Saunders
Liriano
J. Sanchez
Karstens
Correia
Marquis
Villanueva
Pavano

Don't see the Phils resigning Myers in any capacity. Ditto F. Garcia, Oswalt, or Millwood.

Pblunts: Well, Amaro seems intent on proving you can, if you're willing to accept all-stars from 2005.

MG: So many ifs ... I'm taking r00b at his word, & expect a bargain basement SP, which leaves Kendrick de facto #4. I would much prefer he sign someone from your "removes" list.

"You also seem to be forgetting about the 78 runs that were knocked in by the other guys that played 1B."

Train, b-r.com indicates that the Phillies who played 1B knocked in 102 runs last season. If Howard knocked in 56, how did you come up with another 78?

Also, 36.8% of Utley's hits last season were for extra bases. That's off a little from his career average of 39.8%, but it's certainly not an indication that "his power is nowhere close to what is once was", at least not in my book. He's declined, as all players do, but a 3% drop isn't catastrophic. From 2005 - 2009 he averaged 675 PA. He had 362 last season. His issue is being able to stay on the field, not that he can't play at an elite level when he's healthy. He had the 4th highest OPS among MLB 2B in 2012. That's pretty darn good. Sure, he's not the second best player in the game anymore, but Pujols isn't the best player anymore either.

Halladay is the one I'm most concerned about, but I really don't think the Phillies would have traded Worley if they thought Halladay was finished.

So, to answer your question directly, I'm not sure how good the rest of the division will be. Take WSN: 4 of their 5 starters had career years last season. Do you expect a repeat of that? I don't, as it would be highly unlikely to repeat itself. Haren was a nice pickup, if he can repeat, We'll see. ATL lost Larry to retirement, and IMHO that will be a bigger loss than people think. We'll see how good they are, but I don't think they'll be as good as they were last year.

BTW, the Phillies were 35 - 24 in Aug/Sep/Oct. That's .593 baseball - a 96 win season. They would have bumped Atlanta if they had played that well all year.

And that was with Howard playing on one leg, a black hole at 3B, no Vic, no Pence, Worley's cranky elbow, Cloyd in the rotation, Chooch hurt, Howard missing the tail end of the season, Halladay a shadow of his '10/'11 form, etc. etc. etc.

So forgive me for not agreeing with you. I think WAS is the best team in the division until dethroned, but if the Phils are healthy I'm not sure who's #2.

Marquis already signed with the Padres. The rest of MG's list doesn't excite me too much, except for Villanueva -- and I would envision him more as reliever/swingman than as a 5th starter.

If Rube is going to trade for one of LAD's 8 SP, better do it before Dec.21, when CA goes the way of Atlantis. Billingsly would be a good choice. He's here safely in Berks County, where nothing ever happens. He just needs to invest in some rock salt.

I think the Phils have exhausted their quota of cheap options this off-season.

Now it's time to spend or be an also-ran.

Sanchez and Jackson may be the best remaining SPs. Hamilton and Swisher the best available OFs.

There are no prizes for frugality.

Phils seem to be fixated on right-handed power but to me planning on giving Nix significant PT in LF next year is a mistake.

____________________________________________

What does the second part of that statement have to do with the first? Also, nowhere have the Phillies indicated they are going to do that. Are you just warming up your indignation engine for later this season?

Capuano is worse than Kendrick (IMHO) and MG thinks 6 million invested in him is a good move.

Ay yi yi!

TTI, I believe the correct spelling is

Aye yei yei

TTI: Isn't the relevant question now whether Capuano is better than Cloyd?

derek, money aside, between Jackson and Sanchez, I would lean to Sanchez because of his superior consistency.

Jackson is a Boras client, and what GM really wants to deal with him?

Jack: Maybe, and honestly- I don't know if the answer to that question is yes.

Capuano obviously has more of a track record to go off of but a spotty track record doesn't instill confidence in me.

Capuano has been a starter for basically 6 seasons in his career. He has ERA+ of: 88, 107, 113, 87, 81, 102. So basically league average one year, 2 good years, and then 3 years of being pretty below average. I think starting pitcher is a wait out the market type thing this season and see what shakes loose.

And someone said it earlier- if you want a pitcher from the Dodgers, get Ted Lilly. Yes he costs more, but he is also a better pitcher.

BTW, for those of you interested in a LH bench bat instead of Nix: IIRC Bobby Abreu is still available.

Mlbtr mentions that Cleveland might deal Chris Perez.

IMHO he would certainly be worth looking at as a setup man, and he's under control for 2 more years so he could be dealt for prospects if he gets too expensive after 2013.

Also, I would love to see if there was any way to pry Vinny Pestano loose from the Tribe.

Too bad the rest of the team isn't very good, because those two guys have been a pretty good back-end the last 2 years.

For one, you usually want to wait until you're ready to win a title to start dealing from your farm

Two factors at play:
1. KC thinks their existing players as a group will improve on a somewhat disappointing 2012
2. Dayton Moore is allegedly on the hot seat. His goal to win this year; if not, bye bye. This scenario seldom portends well for the team long term.

and a third:
3. They seem to think Jeff Francoeur is a solid playaer.

It's just KC bein' KC, it looks like.

I think the philies will sign either berkman or delmon young to play RF on a 1 yr 4-5 million deal then platoon brown/ruf in LF. The they should sign mike adams 3yr/17.25(5.75 mil per)and then sign either lindstrom or lyon on a 1yr/3mil deal.That right there is 13.75 million spent. 6.25 mil to spend on a starter which should be jurjens,myers, or oswalt!

Of the possible FA pitchers:
I like Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona) for a cheap deal. Certainly a risk but at $4M or less he could be starter or move to a reliever role as a ground ball guy.

Villanueva will probably cost more but is possibly the lowest risk. Since he has not put in the number of innings of a full time starter there is a chance he could fade by the end of the year.

Karstens or Corriea seems like lower risk low upside guys.

Any high risk guy should be given a minor league deal with chance to compete.

I think I like Lindstrom better than Lyon. Okay with trade for Perez or signing of Adams. I'd like someone with closer pedigree just in case.

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