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Friday, December 28, 2012

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FWIW, Costanzo reached AA a full year later than Asche and didnt hit nearly as well even when you account for his better raw power.

He also struck out approximately 2,304 times that year.

Muuurgh: Paisanos? Great Calzones!

Asche is entering his age 23 season in Reading. Costanzo's age 23 season in Reading?

.270.368/.490 with 27 HR in 595 PA.

Haha, not saying I wouldn't be absolutely thrilled with Asche if he pulled that off, but I'm willing to listen to the professinal scouts on whether he's a real prospect or not while others can stick to the b-ref page.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Mike-Costanzo

Never was able to really put it together after that '07 season at Reading and has struggled even at several stops at AAA.

He's not a AAAA-type player/Cody Ransom type player.

Fields is a much better minor league signing.

Were Adche adn Ruf teammmates at the Univ. of Nebraska, or did they miss each other by a year?

Creighton for Ruf.

"Never got this FO vs. Scott Boras chatter on here. What's the evidence?"

Fata- I see the argument has already played out, but curt has traditionally shown a very limited intellectual capacity, especially when it comes to reason, and has been the main person pushing this Boras argument for a long time. Of course there's no hard evidence behind it, but like a 9/11 truther, he just keeps saying the same one or two points over and over, then cups his hands over his ears and whistles. And I really think he believes it.

Of course, the real world doesn't operate that way, but some people paint the entire FO as cartoon characters, so why not make up cartoon stories to go along with it?

A real dumb idea. There would be no power and you are forgetting that Revere cannot throw. Also the batting order would be too left handed. Poor Ryan Howard would see very little right handed pitching and would have trouble hitting 250. It would be a waste of $13.5 million

lorecore: Good find. There is no way in hell Asche tops a line of .270/.368/.490 with 27 HR this season.

clout, what part of that line does he not top, or do you mean the whole thing, as in every component?

Asche has already "topped" the slash line, but only had 289 PA at Reading hitting 10 HR, so he's never had that kind of power.

Costanzo hit those 27 HR in 595 PA - 1HR/22PA.

You're right in tht Asche will probably never top the 27 HR, but, then again, neither did Costanzo.

So, if the question is whether Asche can top the slash line in a full season at Reading, I'd say he has a shot based on what he did last year.

But, he may never get the chance.

I don't mean to bash Asche too much, he is a better prospect than Costanzo because he makes much better all around hitter, but just a good thing for some people to realize when a guy has a good year in the minors to not think he's a star in the making if the reports are that he has too many weaknesses.

If Asche did put a ISO and HR total like Costanzo, then we'd be in for a treat. He'll need that to overcome weak arm/range to stick at 3rd.

awh: In a full season at Reading or LV or any combination of the two, Asche will not top a slash line of .270/.368/.490

clout, it will be interesting. The Phils MiL development crew and the FO seem to think they "have something" in Asche.


I've never seen him play, nor have I read a scouting report, so I have no opinion as to his MLB potential.

All I know is the stats say he stunk it up at Williamsport in 2011, had a good year in 2012, and that he's got fairly pronounced L/R splits.

I've never seen Asche play, either, but based on what clout and others have consistently said about him, he's going to be one of the more controversial players on BL in the coming years, and I'm terrified of handing the keys over to him next year.

It's probably a ringing indictment on my MiLB acumen that I get 99% of my knowledge on prospects from Jack, clout, etc. on BL.

I think it's fair to say the Phillies are considerably higher on Asche than BP is.

However, I think everyone agrees that Franco is the guy who's going to be playing third for a long time once he makes it to the majors.

The thing Asche has going for him is that he's a tireless worker. If he fails, it won't be because he isn't doing everything he can to succeed. And he does have a beautiful swing.

lorecore- thanks. Good write-ups. Would you say that's the best site to get scouting reports?

Doubtful the Phils sign Bourn to a 1-year deal. They would lose their #1 pick (16) for that and RAJ WANTS that pick.

Could Brett myers come back?

Mike Costanzo??? He was traded to Houston 5 years ago in the Brad Lidge deal. Houston flipped him to the Orioles right away, and he kicked around the Orioles farm system for 3 years, got released then 2 separate stints in the REDS farm system whee he finally made his MLB debut in 2012 at 28 years old. In 17 games (mostly as PH) he batted .056 in 21 plate appearances. He played 1B for 2 games and DH for 1.

MG, also like the idea of Lowe on a minimal base for the pen, as well as a guy like Myers. Didn't see him pitch last year, but is Padillia cooked or has that ship sailed from philly like Myers? Conceivably, you could also stretch any of those guys out to start if there is a significant injury in the rotation.

Iceman: my personal preference in researching scouting reports is to find guys who watch specific leagues. I feel like they are in tune with that specific league's strengths/weaknesses/trends and can evaluate a player against his competition better.

awh: If by "have something" you mean a guy who will hit MLB pitching, I don't disagree.

His problem is this: He won't be able to play 3B in The Show and his HR power isn't enough to make him an asset at 1B. He's a bench guy, tops, and that assumes he makes it at all.

Like lorecore, I like Franco way better.

Dickson: "Could Brett Myers come back?"

Like a Boston beatdown.

Pblunts: "is Padilla cooked?"

I suspect not. His K/9 last season was 9.2. He has been bothered by injuries a lot the past few seasons, however.

I'd take him on a reasonable one-year contract. Love to see the Flotilla back in action in the upper RF stands.

Padilla is a first ballot member of the Clout Hall of Fame.

Just checking in. Been busy all day. I see the idiot fake poster was at it again. Flattery gets cha' nowhere.

For the record, if Rever wasn't already here, I'd like to get Bourn short-term. Getting him would mean putting Revere in RF. Where would that leave Brown? Also would probably mean RAJ may go after Soriano for LF. Where would that leve Ruf?

Mike Gonzalez would have been a nice addition at that price. I get the feeling RAJ is done making moves. How could he ignore that one?

Dont they already have a surplus of LH? Its possible Rube did check in with Gonzalez. No one really knows for sure.

If the Phis sign Bourn on a one-year deal, they lose their 2013 first-round pick - but (unless I'm missing something) the Phils would gain a 2014 first-rounder if they make a qualifying offer (probably around $14M) to Bourn after 2013 and he signs elsewhere.

Domonic Brown has had 492 PAs spread over three seasons. The first season he was mis-used, coming off the bench in most of the 35 games he played in. The second season he had the hamate-bone injury that ruined his performance. The third season he got a chance to play after Pence was traded. He had 212 PAs; he wasn't poor, but neither did he distinguish himself.

Brown has not been given much of an audition.

Given the circumstances of the up-coming season, he should be given a full-time job for an entire year. Then we'll know a lot more about Mr. Brown.

DPatrone- hope you had a good Christmas bud. I'm with you in hoping Amaro spends a bit of money on picking up another quality BP arm, but I'm not sure Gonzalez would be on my wish list.

Lindstrom, Howell or Lyon would be the three I'd pick from. Having Pap-Adams-Lindstrom with Bastardo to get out tough lefties would really flip the late innings from a weakness to a strength for this team. And DeFratus/Aumont could get work in lower leverage situations.

Even when the team was making a run in September, the fact that Aumont was the best option for the team in the 8th was the most glaring weakness with the team. A lot of people seem to be forgetting that. Jack and others downplay the importance of reliable arms in the bullpen because he literally thinks all relievers are exactly the same, but the lack of those last year cost the team more games than anything else (and not only cost them games by bleeding runs in tie games, but blew a ton of leads the team carried into the 8th).

If they're going to have money to burn because they don't pick up a bat, the best thing to do is spend it on another quality arm that will help hold down leads. There are still guys out there that fit that mold. Amaro hasn't dropped the ball yet, but I hope he has some names in mind that he's pursuing.

Ice I did & hope had a great one as well. Another BP arm would be great. Here's hoping they have leads to hold down. I hope they get another starter as well, since we don't 'bout Doc. They could move Lannan to the 'pen or KK if needed if another starter was brought in.

I don't know that they won't pick up a bat, but with each passing day, Amaro sure is keeping quiet, whatever his plans are.

Thats if we have leads to protect. Most of these fans are fair weather fans. Another miss of the post season and people will jump ship. Does Rube and PHillies org want to take that chance so they wont go over the lux tax for a year? Thats the question they are pondering right now.

I think the Phils' worst move so far was the signing of Lannan. The team had an opportunity to pick up a couple of wins by getting a pitcher who was an upgrade over Worley. Instead, they chose to sign a run-of-the-mill fifth starter.

Unless Lannan is viewed as no more than a half-season stop-gap, his signing is not the move of a team trying very hard to make the play-offs.

Overall, the team's moves this off-season tell us that the Phils have given up on trying to win the division.

Although the 2011 season ended with a thud, I was very proud of the fact that the Phils were the best team in baseball that season. Maybe, in 2010 as well.

I thought there was a path for the Phils to remain a top team in 2013 and beyond. The path the Phils seem to have chosen is to be a team that's somewhere between the top third to top half of the league. Therein lies my discontent.

Considering Worley's physical conditioning, I'd take a bet that Lannan has a better 2013 than Worley, and I'd consider a bet that Lannan has a more impressive career from this point forward.

We don't need a left handed hitter with no power and strikes out! Isn't this what this team was supposed to be getting away from?

Will Schweitzer - A discussion of Worley vs. Lannan is one about degrees of mediocrity. If you want to talk about winning, that's a different discussion involving different pitchers.

NO, NO, NO! Another guy who strikes out! This is not what the lineup needs. THey need some power 25-30 HRs.

Besides Jimmy will pout and Charlie will give him his way and Bourn won't be put where he would be the most valuable anyway.

RAJ still has not accomplished what he set out to do. Right handed Power and that won't come until the trade deadline in July IF the Phillies are still in the race.

I agree with Derek that after the Worley deal, and after Hamilton and Swisher signed, the best place for the Phils to pick up the most wins was with a starting pitcher. They've obviously chosen not to go that route.

Sabermetrics is Fantasy Baseball on 'roids.

I would bet that Asche will NEVER hit 27 HRs in AA (or at any other level for that matter) but I suspect he could hit a good bit over .300 in Reading with 15-20 HRs.

Considering he doesnt strike out every 3rd AB like Costanzo did, its probably not a bad trade.

Also, there's this:

Asche in AA: .213 ISO
Costanzo in AA that year: .220 ISO

Its not as huge a gap as you think it was.

That said, I doubt Asche ever makes an impact at the MLB level either.

I like the Lannan signing...if only because he costs nearly nothing and bums like Joe Blanton are getting multi-year deals at more than triple Lannan's 1 year AAV.

"RAJ still has not accomplished what he set out to do. Right handed Power and that won't come until the trade deadline in July IF the Phillies are still in the race."

Curran~ I've been saying this all along. Luis and I made the point about having leads to protect. If you don't have them, you've no chance of winning. I think the team is only marginally better than the one that ended last year, and because of how they rank in the division (3rd)& comparing them to the rest of the NL, a playoff spot, to me is a long shot if the offense is not improved. I cannot understand for the life of me why the need is still unadressed.

The team can be in the race at the deadline, but I think it has a greater chance of floundering than not as presently contstructed. My opinions on this are well-known. I wish I knew what is going on in RAJ's head, because I know pitching and defense wins games, but the offense has to support the pitching. My major complaint is that they don't have a legit ML bat behind Howard. And while there may be plenty of baserunners on ahead of him, there may be no reason to pitch to him unless the sacks are loaded.

RAJ just needs to get it done or be gone.

Give him a break, he can't always make a splash every year.

Hey, fake NEPP is back.

Good stuff.

Career numbers below:

Francoeur: .266/.310/.426, .316 wOBA, 91 wRC+
Mayberry: .254/.313/.448, .329 wOBA, 105 wRC+

And we can repeat this exercise over the last 3-4 seasons for Francouer instead of his career to illustrate the type of player he is now:

Francouer 2009-12: .263/.307/.418, .312 wOBA, 92 wRC+
Mayberry 2009-12: .254/.313/.448, .329 wOBA, 105 wRC+

Fielding-wise they are both mediocre, despite Frenchy’s arm. Over the last four years, Mayberry has tallied 2.8 WAR in 848 PAs, whereas Francoeur is at 2.6 WAR in 2394 PAs. So Mayberry has outproduced him in 1/3 of the playing time.

In other words, if you want Francoeur, just play Mayberry.

Not against Bourne on a one year deal, but I believe the Phil’s are done. I like what RAJ has done this off-Season. Losing the 1st pick hurts flexibility in the draft due to the way they allocate the $$$$, right?

In a perfect world, Bourn hits 15-20 home runs a year, but if he does sign with the Phils for $15/1yr then I’d be ok with that. 2013 will prove to be a testing ground anyway, so we don’t have any reason to lock him up for more than that. Hopefully if we do get Bourn, Utley, Howard, and some other heroes hit in baserunners like Bourn, Rollins, and Revere that don’t have a whole lot of pop. I want to see the middle of the order do work!

The problem is that the player has to WANT to come to a team (that is the point of being a free agent, isn’t it?) For whatever reason many of the ones that Ruben has beeninterested in have chosen to go elsewhere. You cannot necessarily blame Amaro for that! Some of these guys would have played one against another until they ended up where they wanted to play, and nothing the Phillies could have done would have made a difference- they would have just raised the amount that the eventual signing team would have had to pay to be the top bidder. I am satisfied with the players we ended up with. It would be nice to have a right handed power hitter, but we have options (Mayberry, Ruf) that could be every bit as good as the ones that are out there (or WERE out there before they signed elsewhere!) It is very easy to spend other peoples money. I understand that there are limits as to how far the ownership can go.

Going over the luxury tax to sign Bourn woud be the wrong move, in my opinion, even if it’s only a few million over. He’s not exactly the player the Phils need right now, would force Revere to LF (he doesn’y have the arm for RF) and that, in turn would force Ruf, a potential power bat, back to the minors. It would also limit the team’s ability to acquire pieces mid-season in case of injuries, the possible need to upgrade at the other outfield spot, or for a third baseman who’s quick enough to get to a grounder.

I think George hit it just right. Signing Bourne would not be a good move for the Phillies now that they have Revere.

Revere played RF all last year and since he made the Majors.

He'd be fine there.

Not that I endorse signing Bourn.

Seriously kid, stop using my log-in.

The 2nd 11:24 AM post is me, the first is not.

The Phillies will not engage in discussions for any Scott Boras client. …. Also I don’t understand why Dom Brown is still being considered for a corner slot and Darin Ruf is not taken seriously. Despite his so-called five tools Dom Brown has no bb instinct while the less-tooled Darin Ruf has the makings of a Jeff Conine type with more power. Of course all the wizards in the Phillies Orginization know better. After all they did select Hewitt, Collier, and picked up all those prize prospects for Lee, Victorino and Pence.

I'm going out now so any more posts after this one wont actually be me.

What teams even need a CF now? It seems Boras priced his guy out of the market.

While I’d generally consider any signing that gets Jimmy out of the 1 hole a good thing, I wouldn’t give up the #16 pick in the draft for one year of Bourn…no way. Besides, Bourn doesn’t do anything to give you a power bat or RH bat to protect Howard. Would that also mean an outfield of Revere – Bourn – Brown against RH pitching? That outfield would combine for fewer HRs than good corner outfielders by themselves. If you start Ruf in LF and only use Revere as late inning defensive replacement/PH/PR, the trade you made for him goes from wait and see to dreadful.

Alby welcome back, it's been awhile. I agree as well.


MacJacMcCoy
1 hr, 20 mins ago
I agree I wouldnt mind adding Bourn for a year or even 3. But there’s one thing I dont agree with and thats where he would play. Revere is one of the best defensive fielders in the league. Which in the Phillies case would force Bourn into one of the corner out field spots. The only thing that would keep that from happening is ego imo. Sometimes guys who make more per year (in bourn and revere’s case a lot more) feel like giving up there spot for a guy who makes less is an insult. That could keep a guy like Bourn from coming to Philly. But if that didnt bother Bourn I cant see the Phillies putting him in center instead of Revere. Especially if they plan on Revere being their CF of the future.

Bourn in RF is probably better because Revere has no arm, not because Revere is better than Bourn at CF.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

Fake awh thinks Bourn can hit 15-20 HR a year!

I guess I should be flattered?

"The team can be in the race at the deadline, but I think it has a greater chance of floundering than not as presently contstructed."


DPat, this is the kind of comment that's so generic it's meaningless. You can say this about almost EVERY team in MLB except for about 5-6 of the "loaded" teams and the bottom feeders like the Marlins, etc.

Some of the MLB teams about which you could make the same comment:

Cardinals (no more Lohse or Berkman)
Yankees (no Swish, suspect SP)
Orioles
Rays
Angels (no more Greinke)
Texas (no Young, no Adams, no pitching depth)


The point is that there are a lot of teams that you can point to, some that made the playoffs last season , that are not locks to make the playoffs in 2013.

You post is like MG's post yesterday saying Ryan Howard sucks when he gets 2 strikes on him.

Meaningless.

Fake awh thinks Bourn can hit 15-20 HR a year

Posted by: awh, Founder, J-Roll in the 6-Hole Club

-----------------------------------------------------------------
That is funny since he's hit 22 in his 7 year career.

Stop with the fake posters, and with the dumb "RAJ won't negotiate with Boras" stuff. Both are wrong, just on different levels.

This imposter guy is lame. It's so obvious when he posts. When imitating someone you are supposed to sound like him or, in this case, write like him. I have to assume that Santa brought him a new ipad or something. At least he'll be out building a snow fort soon.

"The disappointing part so far has been that there doesn't appear to be an unlikely guy who will emerge and give this offense a much needed lift early going."
MG~ There isn't anyone new who's gonna give this offense a lift at all, save bats coming off the bench, which is very important, but nothing on a regular, consistant basis. You can blame Amaro for that. This offense will struggle. maybe people should start to listen.

DomPatrone, your Amaro bashing has become predictably hilarious.

I would not be the least bit surprised to see Borne in CF next season. If so, I just hope and pray that it's a short contract and it's accompanied by another OF move for a player that can be counted on for some power.

How could a imposter patrone not use a tilde in every comment? Dead giveaway.

It's really become conventional wisdom here that Bourn is some garbage player that would hurt the team if he was signed.
Despite what MG tells you, that isn't true. He'd help the team. He'd just end up being overpaid. If he isn't the only impact signing they make on offense, it's a good acquisition.

You can tell the second 11:24 post is the real NEPP because he doesn't know what he's talking about. Revere has one of the worst arms in baseball. Putting him in RF would be stupid.

I don't even know where the tilde is. And that is definitely clout. On second thought, clout would be pretty easy to imitate.

Iceman - I would be a huge fan of signing Bourn to a 1-year deal because he is a difference-maker as the team is currently constituted. Said as much earlier this thread even if there is basically no shot of that actually happening.

I just hated the idea of Amaro giving him a 4 or 5 year deal at $15M.

Yeah it would be nice if the Phils had a young corner OF who could hit 25-30 HRs but most teams in baseball would like to have that too.

Signing Bourn and putting Revere in LF (or RF) would give the Phils an incredible OF defense and allow Bourn to cheat over to corner the alley if Brown/Ruf were playing there. Phils would also be strong defensively up the middle once Chooch returns and have their best OF defense since '08-'09.

Also would allow them to put Bourn in the leadoff spot and move JRoll down to the 6th spot where he probably should be at this point given his subpar OBP. Care less about Bourn's Ks as long as his OBP is near .350 as it has been the last 2 years (.349). Well above JRoll's .328 the last 2 years and .325 the last 3 years.

That's an additional ~20 baserunners a season and a better stolen base threat & guy who can bunt for a hit at the top of the lineup.

MG- that post on Bourn wasn't me. I've got an imposter now apparently.

Pretty jarring to scroll down the comments after a few hours away from the site and see a comment from me. Although I'm impressed by the impersonation. Except for failing to space the two paragraphs, that's definitely something I would've written a month ago.

I agree with derekcanstairs too in that the Phils have taken the middle path this offseason and decided to spend modestly avoiding any long-term commitments.

I don't think they have 'conceded the NL East' to the Nats/Braves but I do think they have acknowledged that the Nats/Braves have much more promising young talent than the Phils.

With an aging core with a ton of question marks due to health & Chooch's suspension compounding things a bit, Amaro decided to take a 'wait and see' approach in the first half of next year to see if this team really can compete for the NL East or is just a WC contender.

My takes is that they are the later right now but you really have to wait until well into spring training to see how several veterans look to get a better possible read on this team's prospects.

It will be the most interesting spring training the Phils have had for several years. Won't be a lot of roster spot battles but there are a ton of unsettled things on this team that are worth watching.

Although I do agree with you on the one year deal for Bourn, MG. I strongly disagree with people that think sticking Revere in a corner would completely eliminate his value. Having the two of them chase down fly balls in the OF would be a huge asset to the pitching staff, and Bourn at the top of the lineup with Revere 8th would wreak havoc on the basepaths.

You're right that it's a pipe dream, though.

As for this offseason:

It was really kind of a dud from an excitement standpoint but if you consider Hamels' resigning as a part of it does change my perspective on it.

Given what Greinke got this offseason, Amaro for once actually didn't ridiculously overpay in dollars or years to sign a premier FA. First time (unless you count Lee's contract) during his tenure he actually has done that and for that I give him some kudos.

Wow. Ice is right. That was a pretty good impersonation of him. Should have noticed the lack of condescension though. And he didn't attack MG as much as the real Iceman either. Trying to pick out the fake posts is kind of fun.

donc: Especially when you don't have anything intelligent to contribute yourself.

donc- exactly. I would've added in much more of a jab than 'despite what MG tells you.' And MG even supported the Bourn idea earlier in the thread.

The real me would have said something about how if he signs him to a one year deal with a team option that MG would cry about Amaro caving in and giving him two years.

Clout E = MC squared. Happy?

You got it Ice. I'm trying to have fun picking out the fugazi posts. I must admit, I'd like to know what douchenozzle is doing it though. Whoever it is has a sh!t ton of time on their hands. Maybe we should start guessing who it is.

MG, I don't think RAJ overpaid when they negotiated the Halladay extension at the time of the trade either.

If fWAR is to be believed, and each WAR is worth $4.5MM IIRC, then Halladay's 10.6 fWAR just since 2011 has almost paid for the value of the extension. (I'm not counting 2010 because he was already signed for that season.)


BTW, the 1:11 post wasn't me.

MG, you never stop.

At 2:23 you declared Bourn a difference maker, again.

You make this declaration, yet you haven't adequately expained "why?".

Please do so, because I don't see it.

Yo, new thread on oogie urbina!

Here's the deal. Sign Bourn for 3 years at 16 mil. Package Revere, Dominic, a good starter prospect, one of our good young relievers, and a good lower class prospect and ship them to the Marlins for Stanton. Bunch of cheap contracts for the Fish, a great settled outfield for us for a couple years, and everybody's happy!!

I'd jump on him for 2 years 17 million.

The funny thing is is that I started the imposter stuff, starting with NEPP. There are others besides myself.

Yep if he comes cheap or at least affordable and/or one yr contract.He's only 29.With Howard and Utley still being a big question why not? Even though he is a lefty(don't know his stats against lefties)Gotta be a blow to his ego that no one has signed him yet considering he was one of the top 3 FA this year. Of course you still got Bor-a$$$$$ to contend with and we all know how well him and RAJ get along.Bottom line I don't partically care for him but if he makes the team better ya gotta go for it.

How bout his splits vs lefties? pitiful last yr and in playoffs vs shut down lefties. Automatic out. One dimensional.

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