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Saturday, December 29, 2012

Comments

Could be a killer acquisition.

I'll be here all week.

OMG: Just looked Oogie up to find his age. Not only is he probably the only major leaguer in history with the initials UU, he's probably the only human being in history with the initials UUU. That's pretty cool.

I heard he's been working on his cutter. Go get him Rube!

I'll take relief help anywhere I can get it.

He's paid his debt to society. If he can clear immigration (the felony conviction may prevent that) then why not let the guy take a few more whacks at it! Maybe the fire still burns...

Not sure what is worse - the fake posters or inappropriate humor.

Maybe he can alter his cutter and we can call it "The Machette".

That's fake NEPP. The real one has a sense of humor.

I pushed the possibilities of Ugueth from the get-go. I say he is the "ALTIMATE FIREMAN".

Adam Eaton is the one we really want. I doubt he makes it but no one never knows. Maybe a Jap an team will take a flyer.

Iceman - but it might not be as good as his back door slider he perfected in prison.

Hey, my mom doesn't post here anymore. Fugazi. At least you've been paying attention, Phlipper.

The plastic machete give away could be quite big.

AWH~ 11:01 post form the previous thread wasn't me. I'm not bashing Amaro per se. I'm growing very impatient with him on not completing the contruction of this team, the way it should be contructed (IMO).

If this is the OF we've got, that just flat-out sucks. Other posters agree, if you read their posts, that he's not done everything he set out to do. And that's fact, not opinion.

I'm telling you, you can agree or not with that point. It's not rocket science and getting what the team needs should not be difficult at this point in time.

No one is going to give a a Rolls Royce player at a Yugo price. As a GM, sometimes you gotta bite the bullet and make things happen. He's gone that in the past. And I don't necessarily disagree with what he's done so far this off-season. But this cannot be the finished product. It's not good enough.

Urbina freed and ready to go. Who could've guessed it.

There is a 17yr old pitched named Ugueth Urbina in the Mariners' foreign rookie league.

The guy will be 39 in February and hasn't thrown a pitch in anger in over 7 years. It would be hard for a guy like that who hasn't had an attempted murder conviction to make it back

Did UU really do everything the [possible kangaroo] court in Venezuela said he did? It's not exactly a thriving democracy there. People with money have larger targets on their heads there than they do even here.

I supported the Urbina trade prior and post. Phils really needed a bullpen piece and it was obvious that Chase Utley needed to play every single game.

Obviously the right move would have been to pull the plug on worthless David Bell and move Polly to 3rd, and find another way to help the bullpen - but if you look at the trade as a couple months of relief help for a couple months of a platoon infielder (polly was a FA, but was extended by Detroit as part of the trade), it was a good idea to make the trade.

Real NEPP here finally. So, assuming that was real clout in the last thread, I'm apparently an idiot for thinking Ben Revere, one of the best defensive RFs in baseball since he came up into the Majors, could handle RF if the Phillies wanted to play him there. I'd love to here the explanation on that one...assuming it was really clout. His range outweighs his lack of a great arm.

NEPP: 1. His great range does not overcome the worst arm in baseball in RF, particularly in CBP.

2. For sure, it doesn't overcome his weak bat. He would be one of the worst RF in baseball.

3. The only position where he has good value is CF, although you can make a case for positive value in LF, where the arm isn't as important.

Conclusion: Only an idiot would suggest Revere in RF for the Phillies.

lorecore: Obviously, no one who knew anything about baseball would suggest the Polanco trade was a win for the Phillies. I'm guessing you think they had no chance to sign him. Why do you think that?

I say let's sign Urbina. What's the worst that could happen. . . (aside from the whole team being murdered and set aflame should a personal item goes missing)

You're right, Revere was a terrible defender in RF last year and throughout his career. All the scouts and professionals that said otherwise are wrong.

I dont think they should sign Bourn and move Revere to RF but to say Revere is a bad defender there is just stupid.

Revere isnt a good fit in RF because of his bat, not his defense.

cloout, actually, Gardenhire, his manager, was quoted saying his arm in RF wasn't that much of an issue.

""I know he feels a little more comfortable in right field, but I'm really happy with Ben Revere out there," Gardenhire said. "Ben's really good in right field, and [Denard] Span is in center."

Quoted from this article:

http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120719&content_id=35199952&notebook_id=35199954&vkey=notebook_min&c_id=min


And then there is this quote:

"Ben Revere might not have a great arm, Ron Gardenhire acknowledged, but it's good enough to play right field."

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_20253437/twins-say-ben-reveres-arm-is-good-enough

mlbtr puts the Phillies in teh list of "Aggressive Acquirers" in the "80-89 Win Club"

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/the-80-89-win-club.html


Wow, how odd. I know this cannot be true because I read on Beer*Leaguer that the Phillies haven't done enough of anything this offseason, and that because they operate in a vaccum they should be able to
just go out and get anyone the phans say that they should.

awh - There isn't a team that finished ahead of the Phils in the NL standings that has been really weakened this offseason.

Phils are still probably behind the Nats, Reds, Cards, Dodgers and at a similar level to Braves/DBacks/Giants are at right now on paper.

Most sports books have at around similar odds ranked anywhere from 12th to 15th as the favorite team to win the WS.


Ryan Roberts will tell you not to run on the Pony Express.

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=23812211&c_id=mlb

Just saw :
(cont) @JimBowdenESPNxm also said that #Phillies are still waiting on M.Bourn decision, before "pulling the Soriano deal" #cubs #mlb

MG~ Amen to that! But if we get 1 bat & 2 arms we'll certainly be in more elevated positions. But probably went ovacation right before Christmas and looks like he hasn't returned just yet, from all the buzz (or not) surrouding the team presently. Peace, out.

Yeah lorecore, just look at the Vegas sports books you big dummy. Vegas is always right.

NEPP: "Revere isnt a good fit in RF because of his bat, not his defense."

Which is exactly what I said:

"1. His great range does not overcome the worst arm in baseball in RF, particularly in CBP.

2. For sure, it doesn't overcome his weak bat. He would be one of the worst RF in baseball."

Glad we agree that your suggestion that Revere should play RF was idiotic.

I'm finally out and I'm coming to pitch in the National League cuz I want to take my hacks.

Here's another post of the revere collage i stumbled on yesterday...http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=L4Wt9xwbRno

MG, what were the definitive and unchangeable rankings last offseason, and what were the sports books saying about the Giants' chances last offseason?

For that matter, what were they saying about the Giants chances in 2010 and the Cardinals chances in 2011?

Where were the Phillies ranked on December 29, 2007?

Just askin'?

Eff it!! Let's just sign Lance Berkman to play right field!

awh - I looked at a few of the various books last year. Giants were anywhere from 8:1 to 12:1 which basically placed them in the top 10.

Phils are at 16:1 to 18:1 in the various sports books I looked at for next year right now.

For the Phillies fans, like a lot of us here, that have been fans for a lot of years, the underdog role is quite familiar.

102 wins followed by 81 wins will tend to make your odds longer. Victorino replaced by Revere and Pence replaced by TBA doesn't help much either.

maybe it's just me, but let's not spend money to guarantee mediocrity. i mean, we probably already have that, and for cheap

I've been in the "don't make a move just to make one" camp since I heard they weren't really in the mix for Swisher. Swisher was the only guy I wanted for a corner. Now that he received his big payday I'd rather see them stand pat and pray that something could come from the platoon although I doubt it greatly. I guess they are going for some '93 magic?

The corner outfield spots, at this point can really only be upgraded with a trade or maybe a low risk high upside deal to a guy like Sizemore which may or may not pan out. Barring that, I think we might as well roll with what we gots.

The team has improved in the off-season. Has it improved enough to overtake the Nats and Braves or make a good playoff run? Don't think so. And that's the rub.

I would never count this core group out, and I can see them pushing the Braves. But they're entering the season with too many questions, certainly more than the Braves have and more than RAJ can address with his current budget. I think they've decided to go with what they have and will hope for the best.

I think a Howard, Halladay, & bullpen bounceback with a full season from Utley gets this group into the 90-ish win area. I'm not bullish on the moves the Braves have made this offseason.

They could sign Bourn cheap and then trade Revere for a cheap 4/5 starter...someone like Worley on Minnesota. I heard he's decent.

"I think a Howard, Halladay, & bullpen bounceback with a full season from Utley gets this group into the 90-ish win area. I'm not bullish on the moves the Braves have made this offseason." - jbird

Right now, that is all we have to hang our hat on. As a Phillies fan, I hope you are right.

But MG. who was #1 at the sports books last year and why didn't that team win?

2013 for Philly sports fans: Flyers - forgetaboutit, 76'ers - mediocrity personified, Eagles - not in 2013, Phillies - our only hope for a positive sports season. Gonna be a tough 2013.

"I think a Howard, Halladay, & bullpen bounceback with a full season from Utley gets this group into the 90-ish win area. I'm not bullish on the moves the Braves have made this offseason." - jbird

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Mr. Theo Spammer above is one of the guys Urbina hacked. Who knew?

If Oogie makes it back, he should be forced to pitch for the Rockies.

Awh: Phils were #1 in vegas.

Clout: I dont consider the urbina Polly trade a win for the phils. I just support the trade for the reason it was made.

And Vegas doesn't have to predict the future, they just have to predict the public's perception of the future.

They could sign Bourn cheap and then trade Revere for a cheap 4/5 starter...someone like Worley on Minnesota. I heard he's decent.

Posted by: NEPP | Sunday, December 30, 2012 at 01:33 AM


So now, the fake NEPP is staying up to the middle of the night to repost joke posts of mine from several days ago.

How pathetic is that?

Glad we agree that your suggestion that Revere should play RF was idiotic.

Posted by: clout | Saturday, December 29, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Funny, never said he should, all I said was that he could and it was idiotic to say he couldn't.

"And Vegas doesn't have to predict the future, they just have to predict the public's perception of the future."


lore, yes. Which is why using the sportsbooks as some kind of guide as to which teams improved the most or have the best shot is foolishness after stupidity.

Then again, look who raised the topic.

I posted that stuff days ago. Weird.

DRagon, yep, we need bouncebacks from H, H & U.

Put it in perspective:

Suppose the Braves had lost Hudson, Uggla and Freeman under the circumstances last season, and Howard, Halladay and Utley had been healthy and had normal seasons. Do the Braves or Phillies make the playoffs last year?


Fast forward, and we're going into 2013:

Wouldn't the Braves chances be dependent on bouncebacks from those 3 guys, and what would you say the probability is of that occuring?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure when the imposter was impersonating me, he copy/pasted stuff from almost a month ago that I had said.

I don't get it, and I don't get why someone thinks it's funny, but I hope it gets taken care of by the powers that be.

"awh - There isn't a team that finished ahead of the Phils in the NL standings that has been really weakened this offseason."


MG, I had to think about that overnight.

The Nats have not re-signed LaRoche, have lost 3 LHRP, all of whom had serious impact on their team last season. You post seems to assume that the Nats will re-signed LaRoche. If they don't, I would put the Nats in that category, unless you think the highest OPS+ on the team, 33 HR and 100 RBI are easy to replace?

The Nats definitely have some question marks in their bullpen. Its surprising they havent moved to patch it up yet.

Also, from now on, I'm simply going to use my Typepad ID log-on so idiot cant steal it.

I say the Nats are pretenders. They fed off of the Phils demise in 2012. The LaRoche season was a fluke and the rest of the hitters on the Nats overachieved. Werth will never live up to his contract. They won because their pitching staff wasn't inflicted with prolonged injuries. A healthy dose of Howard, Utley, Rollins, M. Young & Ruf in the middle of the Phils lineup will deplete any strides that the Nats made last year. Also Strasburg's mommy and daddy probably won't let him play through the entire year because he might get a boo-boo on his arm.

"They won because their pitching staff wasn't inflicted with prolonged injuries."

t-dub, exactly, as well as their top 4 SP having career years.

Everyone who evaluates the team seems to think that is going to occur again.

There is every reason to think that Strasburg and Zimmermann will at least maintain if not improve in 2013 considering their ages and ability. Remember, Stras only pitched 160 innings last year and he wont be bound by such a limit in 2013 and Zimm will be another year removed from TJ surgery while still just entering his prime. There is no reason to think that Gio was a flash in the pan either.

Losing Jackson hurts them but Detwiler & Haren is still a solid 4/5.

Add in a full year of Harper and its not unreasonable to expect them to be right back at the top of the division next year.

Losing Jackson hurts them, but Detwiler & Haren is are still a solid 4/5

Ugh, hate stupid mistakes like that.

NEPP- I read yesterday that they are hot for JP Howell. He would help them. But yeah, their bullpen as constituted has a few question marks.

I hope Storen pulls a Broxton and is psychologically scarred from his epic gag job in Game 5.

awh: "Which is why using the sportsbooks as some kind of guide as to which teams improved the most or have the best shot is foolishness after stupidity"

100% disagree. While i admit Vegas only needs set odds on where they predict money will go, oddsmakers are in my opinion the smartest people in the entire industry.

For this particular topic, their a hell of a lot more informed/smarter than you, and anyone eles posting here.

Per MLBTraderumors: "In the wake of the Marlins' blockbuster deal with the Blue Jays, the Marlins publicly stated that they wouldn't trade Giancarlo Stanton. Assistant General Manager Dan Jennings says that the club isn't shopping the right fielder, but they will listen to all offers for him, according to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM (on Twitter)."

So...who do the Phillies offer to the Marlins for Stanton? I'm thinking it would take (at least) Dominic Brown, Jesse Biddle, and at least 2 - 4 more of the Phillies top prospects to get Stanton. Do you think the Phils (can/should) empty the farm to get him?

lorecore: please tell me you are you joking about the Vegas thing? They set odds based on public perception of who is good and who's not, because that's where the money will go. Their 'opinions' are no better than the conventional wisdom of the general public.

Hoby Milner.

Remember the name.

We dont have the pieces for Giancarlo.

We simply dont.

@clout for immediate trade purposes or for down the line?

Vegas lines aren't only set due to public perception of what a team's chances are to win. They are set to ultimately ensure that when favorites do win the payouts are relatively low so that the sports book makes a profit by collecting on losers especially the sucker bets on the real long shots.

Public perception/money most influences the popular teams or largest teams (e.g., Yankees will always have a line that is a bit lower than you would normally expect because they typically attract a fair amount of action).

Vegas lines aren't an exact proxy but it a useful line to assuage professional handicappers (and they are good are at what they do especially since it has now become a quant-dominated industry) odds-makers with the understanding that some lines for specific teams are maybe inflated/deflated a bit depending upon how much action the book thinks they will see on a particular team.

Dismissing them entirely because (#1 or #2 ranked team) didn't win the WS very often is foolish for several reasons and I would expect most posters on here would realize that by now.

What would be useful is to dig into the numbers a bit more and take a look at basic descriptive statistics (e.g, average odds of winning the WS, winning the NL, winning the AL) over various time periods such as 5, 10, 20, 30 years to begin to see if there are any discernible patterns that emerge.

I would expect that the odds of handicapping the NL winner are better than the WS series winner simply because there is less variability of one-less short series.

NEPP, I tend to agree with that assessment. We don't have the pieces.

Using Vegas odds as any part of an argument almost invalidates your argument from the start. Vegas oddsmakers are interested in money and they do that by setting odds at places where people will bet money on them and avoid overpaying. So to say "The Phillies are no better and Vegas Odds have moved back on them..." or whatever nonsensical claptrap was being put forward is incredibly ridiculous.

As far as the team itself- the Phillies are probably more improved as a team than the Braves and Nationals are this off-season.

I know adding Michael Young, Ben Revere, Mike Adams, and John Lannan are not sexy moves to people but it gave us a better third baseman overall this season and a most likely improved bullpen. Lannan for Worley is maybe a wash or a slight downgrade, and Rever gave us a center fielder without breaking the bank for someone like Upton or Bourn. Yes Revere has question marks, but so did every single center fielder on the market. Revere costs probably 600-800,000 dollars.

The Braves lost Chipper Jones which is a huge hole in the middle of that line-up. They added BJ Upton. The same BJ Upton who so many on here said was not worth the cash the Phillies would have had to offer him. The Braves did, and now those same people are saying what a loss it was. Also, the Braves weakened their rotation to improve their bullpen. The Braves will have flamethrowers at the backend of the pen but Walden is very hittable yet and losing Hanson could bite them.

The Nats are losing a big piece of their lineup this past season and lost three vital bullpen pieces to them. They also will need their entire starting staff to recreate career years or for Dan Haren to figure out what the hell is wrong with him. Span is a nice upgrade for them.

For the Phillies let's hypothetically say Utley, Howard, and Halladay are all healthy. Those are vital additions back to the team as well.

Look, I am not saying the Nats are flash in the pans. They aren't, there is a world of talent on that team. I think they overacheived a little last year. I'd say they are about equal on paper to where they were last year, maybe slighty better. The Braves are worse to me on paper. The Phillies are better.

The more I looked at things the more I felt like there was not a bat out there worth spending a ton of money or years on. This is a team that will have turnover in 2014. Right now they have some pillars to build on. By the end of this year you will know if Brown and Ruf figure into those pillars as well. That isn't a bad thing to me. It just means we may struggle this year to compete consistently for the next 4 or 5.

I think I am going to be unhappy about the Soriano trade as well...

I hope the Phillies pay less than $10M total ($5M per season) and give up nothing more than Valle; Pick of Castro, James, JRodriquez; and Reliever Dude (not named Bastardo, DeFratus, Aumont, Diekman).

I also hope Ruf can learn to play RF as badly as he'll play LF since I figure Soriano can only play LF badly. Way to improve the defense (Young, Ruf/Soriano, Brown, Revere is a push with Victorino, older Howard, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz).
Hope Galvis can play GG 3B having never played there before.

If Zimmerman is healthy, then the Nationals will be better than last year. I doubt they finish 17 ahead of the Phillies, but barring major injuries they'll finish comfortably in first. Johnson is a huge advantage; like having LaRussa in the dugout.

Maybe you guys are right about Atlanta, but they have fewer question marks starting out than do the Phillies. We'll see, but a real key will be Doc. It's a fantasy to think he'll come back to 2010-2011 form, if only because the team will use him more carefully.

I agree and have been saying this a transition year. That doesn't mean a bunch of things can't go right and they win a wild card, but there are more than five teams better right now.

Pblunts: He's my sleeper pick for this year. Of course my last sleeper pick was J.C. Ramirez, so you have to take it with a grain of salt.

But I think Milner could surprise. LHP with 3 + pitches, decent command and good lineage (son of John Milner.)

I hope Phils start him off in Reading this season.

Interesting fact: Milner's dad was also LH as was his uncle, Reds CF of the early '80s Eddie Milner.

The Nats will go from an OF of Morse/Harper/Werth to Harper/Span/Werth with Morse shifting over to 1B (all assuming that LaRoche doesnt come back which is still in the air).

The defensive gain of Span in CF and replacing Morse's terrible defense in LF with a more fleet-footed Harper should neutralize most if not all of the offense lost. Morse should make up most of LaRoche's production at 1B.

Of all the teams in the NL East, they have the least question marks by a considerable margin.

TTI~ That's a very interesting post. You're right all the way around, but there is a big point you miss which I'll get to in a minute(although strictly hypothetical).

Yeah the Braves are a little weaker (Mc Cann's injury hurts). And the Nats? Maybe slightly weaker. But if they get Howell and re-sign La Roche, then trade Morse, they'll probably no worse off.

Now back to my opening statement. The phils are better, but there not that much better. They finished 17 back of the Nats, 13 behind the Braves. 13 games is a lot to make up, and they might, IF they get some offensive help & the core stays healthy & Doc is the old Doc, or slightly below. The Phils should improve upon 81 wins, but even if they get 90 they might be on the outside looking in.

That is assuming (and you know what assuming does), that the Braves and Nats have similar years to last year.

That's why your points are valid because there are a lot of "ifs" for all the teams. And if injuries hit them as well then all bets could be off.

One thing this Phils team has though is a lot of heart. They showed it last year, even is a bad year. That alone can make up for a lot of things.

TTI's post is a breath of fresh air on BL. Some perspective for a change.

Using Vegas odds to make an argument about whether or not the team has improved is just flat-out lazy. There are plenty of factual arguments that can be made about the Phils not being a playoff team as currently constituted. Using Vegas odds as a crutch for that argument just because you are a gambling degenerate is useless and intellectually offensive.

What TTI points out about Utley, Howard and Halladay being vital additions are all true, but with all the arguing about what needs to happen for them to be a playoff team, the most important- and I would argue the sole determining factor- is Halladay's performance. If he is Roy Halladay, this is a playoff team. If he's whoever the hell was on the mound last year, they are not a playoff team. It's pretty much as simple as that.

Adams (and maybe/hopefully another addition like Lindstrom) improves the late innings enough that leads are a lot safer than they were in 2012. But they need Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels to hand them leads to protect. Two aces won't be enough to take this team to the playoffs. They need all three.

I agree with NEPP on the Nats. Only wild card is injuries.

DPat- some of what you're saying is valid, but I don't think using the amount of games back we were of the Braves and Nats is a fair gauge of how much worse we are than those two teams. This team as constituted (when healthy) is not 13 games worse than the Braves. Not even close.

If fans here are being honest with themselves, they'll admit that countess losses- and I literally mean more than anyone could keep track of- were games lost on a razor's edge last year. This team wasn't getting blown off the field, and they certainly didn't quit (though I thought they had quit in those series before the AS break, which is the first time I've seen this group ever embarrass themselves). They had so many things break against them last year, and the bullpen just wasn't good enough. Tons of leads blown, tons of coin-flip things going against them. So many things that could be flipped by just making a couple of tweaks with the roster.

I believe that's what the FO saw last year and I believe that's why you didn't see them overpay for a FA. Personally I would still like to see them add a power bat (Soriano or someone like him), but I don't think they need it based on what I saw last year, and based on what I've seen them add in the off-season.

I really like the Revere move. I think he is going to be a real spark plug to this team and light a fire under veterans who, as much as they wouldn't admit it, probably got down on themselves and the team last year. That's something you can't measure, and something stat-heads will laugh at. But I think this team desperately needed new blood, and Revere is exactly the type of guy I had in mind.

We'll see if they'll make any more moves before pitchers and catchers report (I think they will), but right now, I'm excited to see this team play and roll into ST healthy and ready to go. They will be competitive.

DPatrone: Very true. Ifs are always a part of the analysis. I just think that the fallacy of some people's argument is thinking that the Phillies are no better than an 81 win team last year. That was an 81 win team without Howard and Utley for half a season. Without Halladay being himself for long stretches of the season. Without Ruiz (there best hitter for the last 2 months). Without Victorino and Pence the second half of the year. With a bullpen that imploded every single chance they got.

The thing to me is you have to assume everyone healthy and that is their best case scenario. If everyone is healthy and themselves, this is a 90-95 win team. Is that enough to get back to the playoffs? It would've been this past year, and it might be again. Hard to say.

NEPP: I would agree with that. My saying they are basically equal on paper is me saying they did not have a ton of holes last year so they on paper don't have many, if any, this year.

I do think the bullpen will trip them up though. Even if they add Howell.

Vegas Odds are just more piece of data to judge public sentiment and to dismiss them outright is kind of foolish.

As for the Nats, yeah they are clearly better than the Phils going into the season next year even if they lose LaRoche.

Everyone talks about the injuries the Phils had to deal with when the Nats had just as many injuries to overcome and had nearly as many players on the DL as the Phils last year.

Best hope for the Phils is that some of their starters don't have quite such good years including Detwiler/Zimmerman and that they don't enjoy such good health.

If the Nats don't resign LaRoche, they would be wise to pick another bullpen arm or two.

"Of all the teams in the NL East, they have the least question marks by a considerable margin."

I definitely agree with this statement on Washington. I don't necessarily agree that they have offset every loss. The losses they have to account for are the fact that they got ridiculous production from players like Desmond and LaRoche, and absurdly good years from most of their pitching staff, that aren't all likely to be repeated. I'm wondering what they're thinking with resigning LaRoche, because he was so obviously a flash in the pan- signing him and ditching Morse would be a win for the rest of the teams in the division (depending on what they get back for him in a trade).

Span is a good player, but he comes with some injury concerns and is not the guy who put up All-Star numbers his second year in the league. Zimmerman is always an injury concern. And the starting pitching...I mean, I'll believe they can do that again (as a group) when I see it. I know they're young, which tips the odds a bit more in their favor. But it just historically is not easy to duplicate that type of production two years in a row, as a staff, no matter who you are. If/when they do it, I'll be here to eat crow. But I just don't think it will happen.

All that said- yes, on paper they are the best and most talented team in the division, with the least question marks. I just don't see it as a runaway like it was last year.

@clout you think the Phils will have Milner bypass Clearwater entirely? Unlike the organization, no?

Vegas Odds are just more piece of data to judge public sentiment and to dismiss them outright is kind of foolish.

____________________________________________

Says a guy who always talks gambling. You know what the purpose of oddsmakers are, and you are smart enough to know how dumb yours or any others argument sounds if they are using that as a reason. Seriously MG, c'mon.


Everyone talks about the injuries the Phils had to deal with when the Nats had just as many injuries to overcome and had nearly as many players on the DL as the Phils last year.

_______________________________________

When did the Nats lose their two best hitters for half the season and when did their best pitcher go out and basically not be himself for long stretches of time and then get hurt and miss starts?

If the Nats starting pitching stays healthy again, they will win 90+ games again and win the NL East handily (by at least 4-5 games).

Detwiler and Gonzalez have had very few injury issues in their minor or major league careers so far. Both guys haven't had extreme workloads or increases in their workloads either.

Zimmerman has had some issues but been healthy the last 2 years. Nats also have been very careful with his workload.

Big question for them is if Strasburg experiment pays dividends and if Haren can avoid the DL. They won't miss Jackson's numbers as much as his durability & good odds that he would give them ~30 GS/~200 IP again.

Not sure what there organizational starting depth is right now either.

"Everyone talks about the injuries the Phils had to deal with when the Nats had just as many injuries to overcome and had nearly as many players on the DL as the Phils last year."

This is such a crock. All this is illustrative of is the fact that the Nats had a much deeper team than the Phils with guys like Harper to come up and bail them out, along with guys like Lombardozzi somehow holding it down when Zimmerman was out. The Phils had their three most important players miss incredibly significant amounts of time and could only replace them with guys like Cloyd, Galvis/Fontenot and Wigginton/Nix. I wonder why one team could weather the storm while the other couldn't?

MG has used this argument that the Nats had to deal with the same adversity the Phils did last year before and it just doesn't hold water. It doesn't take a rocket scientist (or a bookie in Vegas) to understand why the Phils losses had a significantly more damaging effect. Look at the replacements. On paper, the teams do not have that much of a competitive gap.

Werth missed almost 3 months, Desmond miss more than a month, and Morse missed his share of time.

The only area where the Nats really enjoyed a lot of good look was their rotation.

They are a team that almost to the man though has guys under 30 everywhere on their roster.

Weakest area on the Nats right now is in the bullpen with all of the guys they lost including Burnett who was a real staple for them.

Smart to try to sign Howell on a 2-yr deal, pick up another veteran RHP on a cheaper 1-yr deal, and call it an offseason.

Best reason to sign Howell? To keep the Nats from getting him.

TTI- In reality they were better than an 81-win team last year. they just didn't play like it as everyone knows and why. Howard and Utley showed what they can do, even playing hurt. That's where the heart comes in. That's also one of the things that makes this this appealing, th phans and players alike.

Ice~ No doubt they'll compete. What I want to see however which has always been my argument for better or worse, is to have our GM take some our "ifs" of the equation. That's all.

My whole premise is "if it ain't broke, don't break it, not don't fix it". But "if it's broke, fix it". Now he trades Pence, for whatever reason (water under the bridge), but now he's looking for a RH power bat to play RF, as one of the analysts on DN Live pointed out. That makes no sense to me.

In other words he's broken RF when he didn't have to, now he has to fix it. And at what cost? I realize they had to cut payroll. But you can't go to war with less than what you had and expect to get the same result. That holds true in this case. And that's what irks me.

Yeah Revere brings an awful lot to the table. I hope Cholly hits him leadoff to better utilize his speed. I'm not worried about his arm. But does he bring more to us than Upton would have? Hard to say because they're different players. Cost-wise, it's the better move, but the other shoe has to drop. That's what we're all waiting on.

Adams? Great move when he's heathy. No question. Young? Good but not great move. But if he reverts back to 2011 form, will be a great move.

Still want to see more arms though. We'll get those. Then he'll make whatever trade he's got lined up. BTW, never said the Braves were 13 games better, only that 13 games is a lot to make up. Maybe a difficult chore, maybe not. We'll see.

So as everyone waits ti

Last partial line of the previous post should not be there. Sorry.

Howard and Utley had less than 160 games between them, the Phils lost Ruiz for more than a month at the end of the year, lost Halladay for significant time and both he and Worley were pitching hurt all year.

MG thinks the Nats having Morse miss time (opening the door for Harper, btw), losing Werth (1.0 WAR in 2011, 0.8 WAR in 81 games in 2012) for half the year and having Desmond miss four weeks, while their rotation was injury free, is equatable.

I don't even have a comment for this, it pretty much speaks for itself.

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