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Thursday, December 13, 2012

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If you're Michael Bourn right now, its much like being that remaining prospect in the Green Room at the NFL draft at the end of Day 1. I wonder if Boras even makes eye contact with him at this point?

"So Michael? You like Seattle, right? Beautiful city, Space Needle, high suicide rate, grunge music...Michael? Michael, are you there???"

From the last thread, Jack scoffed at the idea of dealing for Trumbo because of his career OBP in two full ML seasons.

Trumbo has 61 HRs in his first two seasons (120 OPS+, .261/.305/.484/.788), is right-handed with even platoon splits, is only 26 and is dirt cheap right now.

But yes, let's rule him out because of his career OBP.

And I'll say it again- maybe I'm crazy, but if the price keeps dropping and they don't like Swisher for some reason, wouldn't it be nuts if the Phils signed Bourn? You count on your power from Utley, Howard and Brown/Ruf(iffy, for sure) and let Revere and Bourn go crazy on the base paths.

Upside to Bourn: We could go with 5 infielders to make up for Young's non-existent range at 3B.

This offseason has sucked. Hard.

Iceman, Trumbo would be nice, but what would you have to cough up for him? Lots and lots, I'm guessing.

Yeah I really don't get citing OBP as a knock for Trout. We want him to drive the ball and drive in runs, not hit leadoff.

I'm telling you, if the Phils were interested in Ichiro for whatever reason, I'm not sure why they wouldn't hang around to see if Bourn will be really cheap at the end of FA.

Like Fata said, they'd have about 20 HRs in the OF if they kept Brown, but my guess is they'd trade Brown and go with a platoon in LF hoping for 30 HRs from Mayberry/whoever (maybe Ankiel?).

If you're the Angels and you have Mike Trout...why would you sit Trumbo and move Trout to a corner all to use Bourjos in CF?


What sense could that possibly make for them?

@pblunts...will Revere and Bourn be given the freedom to run whenever they want. Charlie wouldn't know how to actually put them in motion. He'd be busy waiting for the long ball.

NEPP - At least Hamilton didn't sign somewhere that removed one of his likely destinations. Angels weren't signing Bourn, so unless they move Bourjos this may have been a best case scenario for him.

Iceman: I would rather have Darin Ruf than give up something of value to get Mark Trumbo.

NEPP- I like it: Bourn & Revere in OF, then 5th INF is....Mini-Mart!

Bourjos being in play will also drive down Bourn's price tag.

"The Phillies' best remaining free agent options are Nick Swisher, Cody Ross and Scott Hairston."

Not gonna lie. That sentence made me cringe.

pblunts- we're on the same page about Bourn, only I think they'd trade Brown. Or perhaps they'd really be willing to platoon him with Mayberry in LF, which would optimize both of their skill sets.

Trumbo would certainly be expensive, but I don't get why anyone would rule him out because of his OBP. I mean, come on. Some people just search for stuff to harp on because they have nothing better to say.

Not sure how reliable (or who) the source is, but I heard on the radio that Trumbo is not going to be made available.

Iceman: The Phillies shouldn't rule anyone out at this point. But Trumbo is an incredibly one-dimensional player. He does one thing well, and everything else poorly. He's young but that isn't particularly beneficial in and of itself.

They don't have to trade Bourjos or Trumbo. Keep an OF of Hamilton, Bourjos, Trout, slot Trumbo in as your DH, and trade Morales.

He's not a bad player.

And if they had Bourjos and Trout in the OF together, they could just tell Hamilton to stand on the RF line, and don't run after anything, so you don't get hurt. Bourjos and Trout can probably cover the entire OF themselves.

Or they'd put Trout in RF (which would make more sense, actually) and Hamilton in LF.

Dont worry, I'm sure they'll give up Vernon Wells if Rube picks up the phone.


~not serious~

Iceman: Are you kidding? You think caring about the single most important offensive statistic for a player whose only value is offense is just searching for something to harp on?

Look, Trumbo is a useful player. He hits home runs, and would provide a righty power bat. But am I paying a high price for someone who gets on base at the same rate as Pedro Feliz? Um, no. Sorry. What's the point when we have someone like Ruf, who very well might be an identical player to Trumbo?

Ah basement baseball.

***What's the point when we have someone like Ruf, who very well might be an identical player to Trumbo?***

December 13, 2012 @ 3:12 PM...the moment Beerleaguer went through the looking glass.

NEPP: I'm no huge Ruf supporter, honestly.

I'm just saying, Ruf is an offense-only right-handed power bat who is a late arrival to the major leagues.

I think there's certainly a chance he can provide as much value as Mark Trumbo, given the opportunity. They're similar players. Look at their minor-league numbers.

When did Mark Trumbo become Ryan Braun? Did I miss something?

@NEPP Upside to Bourn: We could go with 5 infielders to make up for Young's non-existent range at 3B.


You have to have 6. Frandsen plays 3B/2B, Galvis plays SS/2B

@Jack...
Howard as an offense only left handed bat who was late to arrival.

Signing Bourn after trading for Revere makes no sense. And unless the Angels really want Dom Brown & some org filler (which they don't), trading for Trumbo after trading for Revere would only weaken the team in another area. The Phillies NEED an OF who can hit for power. Howard, if healthy, will most likely hit a bunch of HR & strike out a ton. But counting on power from Brown, Ruf & Young? Too big of a gamble.

I'd honestly rather start Dom in RF and Ruf in LF than Trumbo in either field. But it's academic because the Angels will trade Bourjous, not Trumbo.

Just sign Swisher and a set-up guy and let's go. Jack already says there are plenty of teams with questionable starters. Phils have Doc-Hamels-Lee which puts them ahead of enough teams as is.

I really don't think Rube signs Swisher, especially now that it's likely going to take more than 4/$60 to get him. Trading for Soriano seems more close to reality now.

@Sophist

That is being positive but you have to wonder if last season was just a fluke season for Docs injury or if his age has something to do with it.

We still have only 4 in the rotation and the bullpen remains the same

@Sil

No no no to Brown for Soriano. No way in hell.

@pblunts...will Revere and Bourn be given the freedom to run whenever they want. Charlie wouldn't know how to actually put them in motion. He'd be busy waiting for the long ball.

Posted by: Joe D | Thursday, December 13, 2012 at 03:06 PM

Joe, that is very true. Good thing is, we only have to worry about him for one more season.

Just sign Swisher and a set-up guy and let's go.

Seeing as how there was almost universal agreement here that the mere idea of Soriano is sheer insanity, Swisher & a solid reliever are pretty much the last gasp chance for this offseason. Sign Ross & the Phillies are no better overall in the OF than they were w/ Vic & Pence. Cheaper, yes. But cheaper doesn't win games & get a fat new TV deal. Better does.

This notion that Charlie doesn't like/utilize the running game is pretty friggin far from reality. I explained this to GTown a few days ago. Check the numbers.

Not surprised the Angels signed after they couldn't resign Greinke. They had the money to spend.

I have to think though they depriving the Rangers of Greinke too was a key reason why they signed him.

As for the Phils, I am not sad to see them not having signed Hamilton in the least. It would have been a lot of fun in '13 but the Phils would have had $125M committed to 6 players in '14 (Lee, Howard, JRoll, Hamilton, Hamels, and Papelbon) and quite possibly that same amount in '15 if JRoll vests his option. Harder fall than the Mets did in '09 I bet in '14 if the Phils had given Hamilton that kind of deal.

Hamilton has been a very good player who had one really exceptional year in '10. That was 2 years ago too.

Is he a guy who will stay focused and on the field for even 140 games this upcoming year now that he got paid? I wouldn't bet it on it.

Paint all of this however you want but it's just downright depressing that teams are making moves and the Phillies are introducing Ben Revere. Ben. Revere.

I know it's still early but I don't have any faith in things getting better.

Fatalotti: With all due respect, what you showed was that the team does run, not that it runs to any particular beneficial end. There's no strategy there. Charlie basically gives everyone the green light. It means nothing when a guy gets on base, steals 2B, & is then stranded because the next to players fail to get the ball out of the infield on as many pitches.

Jack- you'd rather have Ruf than Trumbo?

Ok, then. We're done here I guess.

If the Phils are going to spend $25M too, sign A. Sanchez, a stud reliever, and even another veteran reliever.

Put a guy out there anyday on the mound who gives you a good/very good chance to win and drop a hammer on teams if you have a lead in the 7th with a deep bullpen.

Worked for the Giants 2 of the last 3 years.

Starting pitchers?

Is Roy Oswalt still avialable?

"Hamilton has been a very good player who had one really exceptional year in '10. That was 2 years ago too."

Yeah, one reason why Swisher at much lower $$ is very appealing. Swisher and Hamilton from a WAR perspective are not that far apart.

Gtown - The universal aversion is to Soriano for Brown. Soriano for less fits in the lineup pretty well. I'd prefer it to Ross depending on what's given up.

I wonder if the Phillies will sign Kent Bottenfield to fill out the backend of the rotation.

I know Rube prefers signing pitchers but it was GM-malpractice for him to not go hard after Hamilton. If the Phils want to continue to be an elite team they have to acquire elite players. Swisher would be a decent acquisition but how does Ross make this a better team?

GTown, so the Phillies are a team that has run frequently over the past 7 years (4th in baseball in stolen bases) and efficiently (1st in baseball in SB% over that same stretch).

With all due respect to you, what more do you want from the stolen base game? If you are stealing lots of basing, and doing it more efficiently then everyone else in baseball, then you've done your part as a manager. They're not really much more you can do, other than cast a magic spell to make the guy behind the stolen base get a hit.

I'm with you Sophist. I'd rather have Soriano with Chicago footing much of the bill than getting Ross on a 3 year deal for more scratch.

@JeffPassan
If Hamilton deal gets done and Bourjos hits the market, source says Angels have shown interest in R.A. Dickey. Peter Bourjos good Mets fit.
Reply Retweet

Sophist, to contradict your tweet, from MLBTR:

"Newsday’s Marc Carig reports that Trumbo or Peter Bourjos would not be a fit in a trade for Dickey (Twitter link)."

Yeah, I saw that on MLBTradeRumors.

Dickey would be a great fit for LA.

I know some of youthin it was a d8ck move by Hamilton to not give the rangers the opportunity to match.

But consider this:

If you were Arte Moreno, would you make an offer to Hamilton that he could shop if you really wanted him, especially knowing he told the Rangers he'd give tham a chance to match?

I wouldn't. I would have made the offer this way:

I would have gotten Hamilton and his agent on the phone and told them, "Here's 5/125, with no chance to shop it. If you haven't accepted it by the end of this phone call the offer expires."

Something like that may be what happened.

So Hamilton either had to accept it or risk that the Rangers wouldn't match that number.

Soriano at 2/$10 (with CHI eating $16M as rumored) would indeed be better than Ross in my opinion. I don't want to trade Brown for him, though.

So what deal gets Swisher now?

The team's issues last year were the notable fail off in pitching (some of that bad luck) and to a lesser degree defense. Also, this team has been too top-heavy and their lack of depth especially in the bullpen got exposed in the 1st half last year.

Signing Hamilton would have been great for the sizzle but not your value for the actual steak.

Deal he got from the Angels makes a lot more sense for them than it would have from the Phils' perspective given the high likelihood he would have ended up back with the Rangers.


If they go after Soriano (which is unlikely at this point), they almost have to fork over the cash for Sanchez and Adams

Fatalotti: Let me put it this way. Charlie is a manager who puts a lot of trust in his players. He more often than not gives mostly everyone a green light to swing away, & to attempt a SB. That worked well when guys were hitting for extra bases. It has worked less well as the team has become weaker. Sure, the SB are still there, but clearly fewer runners are crossing the plate. Continuing to add speed when the problem has been a lack of power doesn't make sense.

People wanting Soriano..can you imagine the butchery of the OF if this happens?

The difference between a .330 OBP and a .302 OBP over 600 Plate Appearances is roughly 17 times on base. So if Trumbo could work 10 more walks and hit 7 more singles per year, is that really the difference between a good ball player and a bad one? How many homeruns do we think that the Angels would trade for those walks and singles?

Hey Corn, don't know if you know this but Dom Brown and Darin Ruf probably won't be in any Tom Emanski videos anytime soon.

I hear the Angels are going after Anibal Sanchez next. ;)

GTown, that's a different argument than what you made earlier, which was adding a SB threat was a waste because Charlie wouldn't use him either at all or well.

You seem to be intimating now that whether Charlie uses him well or not is almost irrelevant, as the team is in need of power, not speed. That's an argument that I can wrap my arms around a bit more.

jbird, why does it have to be either/or?

Why can't he improve his walk rate and still hit for power?

Yes on Trumbo. Can't wait to announce: "...and there goes another Trummmmmm-bomb!"

Ok, now that the nonsense has passed with Hamilton how about Nick Swisher, 8th inning relief help and a starter, RAJ?

Ruben better be sleeping on Swisher like the Angels were on Hamilton and just strike late.

@Joe D

If you are going to waste a cost controlled young player who hasn' had a full season in the ML yet or even in one position for a 1 year rental on a poor outfielder for 10m..you are better off going after Swisher & keeping Brown.

Id rather have Cody Ross over Soriano while being able to keep Brown

@Joe D: Ruben better be sleeping on Swisher like the Angels were on Hamilton and just strike late.

This is what I am hoping they are doing.

Fatalotti: Then that's my fault for failing to express myself more clearly. Sorry for having us talking in circles.

They'd have Soriano for 2 years wouldn't they? But I get your point Corn, it's better than just saying the outfield D would be bad.

Question: Assuming Brown is off the table, what would you all be willing to trade in exchange for Soriano?

Such a shame Ruben whiffed when he tried to get Min to package Willingham with Revere. Imagine how differently this off-season would look if we had managed to land Willingham and Lopez.

@GTown...pretty much anyone at this point is on the table. They are going to be backing themselves into a corner the longer they wait and the more guys go elsewhere.

Interesting take at fangraphs on Hamilton. Contact rates declining and relatively low ability to BB...

@Nik, seriously. If he got Willingham and Lopez I'd already think this was a pretty solid offseason and just hope he'd add a nice 4 or 5 arm to finish it off.

If Scott Hairston is the big off season acquisition, I'm going to be sick. Just thinking about it cause my stomach discomfort.

Why are we even considering Ross on a three year deal when the White Sox are dangling Dyan Viciedo. He KILLS lefties and can field just fine. That should be platoon guy to get. I'd gladly give up Valle to get him.

@Scotch Man, at least Hairston wouldn't be reeking havoc on the Phillies staff anymore.

If the Phils are not in on swish like it appears, then I believe Rube has some trade opportunity up his sleeve. Whether or not its a good one is another question.

Sophist: Part of the reason (beyond the off-field concerns) that I didn't want Hamilton.

People think this is crazy, but there's more than a negligible chance that his on-field performance seriously declines, and quickly. He has real holes in his game.

If they fail to make the playoffs this season, which I think will happen, at what point do people start looking at Amaro?

Handed the keys to a cadillac and returns a pinto.

Jack - Who thinks that is crazy? Hamilton was only really appealing on a 3-year deal.

I've been saying the same thing, Corn. It's amazing how Ruben has taken this team and run it right into the ground. Now granted the aging core has a lot to do with it but he hasn't impressed anyone.

Scotch Man, chill.

Lotsa things can still shake out. If you're not going to have a Scotch, do what Kool Earl says:

Drink some Jack and grow a sack!

I'm sorry, but when exactly have we "won" any trades with White Sox(rowand for gavin floyd was probably slightly in our favor at the time, but floyd turned into a passable middle rotation starter). No way, Kenny Williams knows how to fleece this FO.

Yeah I think it's pretty damn easy to think Hamilton's skills will decline. That's a pretty strong limb. But for THIS year he would have provided a huge boost which is why people are upset.

I think the optimum plan is trying to get Marcum on a two-year deal -- something like what the Red Sox just paid Dempster, getting Mike Adams for something like 2/10 and then trading for a RH outfielder lefty-masher,- Viciedo comes to mind. Sets the team up for a two year run

Franzke will go on a murderous rampage if Scott Hairston is signed. I must admit, I'd consider joining him.

@mm, Williams did us a favor with the Iguchi deal.

Sophist: In the least thread, when I said I was wary of signing Hamilton, a lot of people thought that was ridiculous.

Well, I'm glad they didn't sign Hamilton for what the Angels paid him.

But really, one has to question RAJ's thought process abouth not getting the power bat he needs.

Swisher seems like the most logical fit now, but given the fact that RAJ hasn't spent big money this off-season, is he even sa possibility? Cody Ross or Scott Hairston? Neuth is the answer. We'll be nothing more thsn what we are now, on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

@Joe D

So thats why you left the sports board cause most of them were against your Phillies downfall reasoning lol

The Angels are getting $150 million a year on their TV deal alone...they can "afford" to roll the dice on Hamilton in a way that Rube can't even fathom right now.

Whatever RAJ has up his sleeve, Swisher, Adams, Jurrjens whoever please NO SORIANO.

The Phillies might have stopped to consider their next TV deal before deciding Ben Revere & Michael Young were the answer.

@Corn, I actually didn't take up posting over here until the middle of last season. Do you post over there? I find it better over here because there are a lot more posters.

@Mike

Soriano traded to Phillies for Dom Brown & Tyler Cloyd

lol

"rowand for gavin floyd was probably slightly in our favor at the time, but floyd turned into a passable middle rotation starter)."

If only. The trade was actually Rowand for Thome. Thome went on to have 3.5 monster seasons for the WhiteSox. Of course, we also got Gio Gonzalez in the trade, which would have more than evened things out. But we turned around the next year and traded him (along with Floyd) for Freddy Garcia.

What does the fact that RAJ hasn't been linked to Swisher mean to anyone? Because RAJ wasn't linked to Lee, the Angels weren't linked to Pujols or Hamilton.

Let's just see what happens.

@JoeD: the iguchi deal was a good customer reward. We got to trade in our subway card for that.

****Thome went on to have 3.5 monster seasons for the WhiteSox. ***

As a DH...I doubt he performs like that as a 1B and that was the real issue.

The Gio trade was a complete abortion by Gillick...way way worse than even the Pence deal.

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