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Sunday, December 02, 2012

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Seidman: "Should Phillies go after Alfonso Soriano?"


awh: NO, NO, NO!!!!

NO NO NO

clout mentioned "risk" in the last thread when discussing the OF.

So, here's a question for the board:

Is it worth the risk of paying millions to a 36 yr old player in delcine who's a defensive liability, as opposed to the risk of going with a player 10 years younger with 37 MLB PA who would make the MLB minimum for a rookie?

For the record, I'm not sold on Ruf, but I don't believe Soriano is the answer either.

OTOH, if the Cubs picked up $12-15MM of the $18MM he's owed in each of the next two seasons, then I migght consider it because of the reduced financial risk.

‏@jonmorosi: File this away for Thursday: Exec tells me Rule 5 class strong this year, potential impact arms and bats. "One of the best I've seen."

Third time the charm for Rube?

He's a perfect fit... undisciplined, swings-for-fences... K's

If he came cheap (low level prospect and Cubs paying at least $25M), Soriano would be a smart bet, with Ruf as an insurance policy.

If Ruf turns out to be the .280, 35-HR, 100 RBI guy that every single poster on BL believes he is, then Soriano can sit and it doesn't cost you much.

But there's no way it makes sense to take Soriano for $36M or to deal a quality prospect for him.

This would be a good under-the-radar move by a shrewd GM. If the Cubs are willing to eat most of his salary, I'd be willing to give up a decent prospect. Add Soriano and Victorino for two years, and Youkilis for 1-2 years and we address power and on base concerns while keeping most of our prospects and salary flexibility for when more worthwhile free agents or trade opportunities present themselves.

In the last thread I said I'd be in favor of this if Chicago ate half of his salary. Then it would essentially be 2/16 for Soriano, a legitimate power threat no matter how disappointing he's been. That would be a fair price, and a better value for corner OF than you could find anywhere on the FA market (except for Torii Hunter who is already off the market).

Like clout said, at worst he ends up as an insurance policy for Ruf as the Phils find out if he's the real deal or not.

NO

YES

Absolutely not. A ridiculous notion.

Makes me wonder whether some AL team covets Ruf as part of a package that would send the Phils a quality BP arm. Don't see the need for two poor defensive corner outfielders who hit for power from right side. But if some AL GM is interested in dealing for Ruf then now seems a good time to move him and soriano would be valuable as a short term piece. I would rather give the ABs to Ruf and take my chances on his stock rising further than risk soriano getting hurt or reverting to previous years and getting booed off the field.

"If Ruf turns out to be the .280, 35-HR, 100 RBI guy that every single poster on BL believes he is. . ."

I think I'm actually the only poster who believes this -- or at least the only poster who is willing to own up to believing it, and face the resulting ridicule.

I like the idea of Soriano for power, but for nothing else. Unless he came super cheap, like Phils only paying about $5M per season, then he's better left for Chicago or another team.

Ruf/Brown should get a shot in LF.

BAP- highly doubt Ruf churns out those numbers next season, but it's possible he could put out a season like that down the road.

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BAP--love the optimism and the huevos for going on the record, but you forgot to add that, "of course, since Charlie won't play him against righthanded pitching until August, those numbers will need to be modified to their approximate equivalents over 375 plate appearances..."

I'm all for this.

Here is a thought. Can soriano play third?
He did play second base at one time but I suppose third is out.

So, I say no to Soriano, let's give Ruf a chance.

Soriano also used to steal 40 bases. He can't do that or play IF anymore.

Sophist sort of talked me into this. I think they need to sign a corner OF and the ones still on the market who are fits (Ross, Swisher) are way overpriced. Assuming we could get Soriano at 2/18, without giving up a top guy, that is much more reasonable.

I start to hesitate on it if Amaro would agree to pay 10 million or more per season for him.

I dont know leaning towards no. Cubs will have to eat a bunch of salary before i even start to ponder it.

Yeah, do this in a way that it won't prevent more moves. Get his bat, sign a CF, Youk on a 1 -year deal.

Phils have possibly one more year with Doc and Utley. I don't think you go into 2013 with unproven guys in the corner OF and Frandsen/Galvis at 3B.

Yeah, Pagan plus Soriano plus Youkilis sounds pretty good to me, and is potentially in the budget.

I don't see why Soriano couldn't get a shot in RF so as to avoid impeding Ruf.

"If Ruf turns out to be the .280, 35-HR, 100 RBI guy that every single poster on BL believes he is..."

clout, does this include you? It doesn't include me, so I don't know how can write "every single poster".

clout,
I've told you a million times - Don't exaggerate.

~20 HRs seems to be a much more reasonable expectation for Ruf next year but that really depends on how many ABs he gets. If he somehow was a regular who had 450 or 500 ABs, I do think he could approach that total or maybe even slightly exceed it.

Real question is what his AVG/OBP look like and if he isn't a complete disaster in LF. Can he handle RHP pitching well enough to hit say .250 or better with high enough BB rate to have a .320 OBP or so.

Above average numbers are great but not if you have to play a guy who is terrible defensively and below average on the basepaths with a sub .250 AVG/.300 OBP.

I don't think Ruf will be a disaster defensively in LF or that he won't be able to hit well enough at the MLB level to have some value. Just a question of whether he can hit well enough to be anymore more than a bench player.

Brown supporters won't want to hear it but you can say the same thing about him too. A guy who puts up a line of .240/.325/.394 (.718 OPS) is a guy who shouldn't be a full-time starting in a corner OF position either.

Not expecting Brown to light the world on fire this year but he needs to take a step forward to. Say by hitting north of .250 this year and show a little more power to at least reach a .750 OPS or so.

Even if Brown had a line of .260/.350/.410 this year I would be happy with that.

This wsould be awful, a despertation move. It would disrupt clubhouse and prevent growth of young players like Ruf, Brown and whoever we gave up to get him. Fix pen first. Should be able to sign Youk. Then, go after Hamilton, Pagan and Shane in that order,and even if its Shane , the team is improved. Frankly, none of this matters unless Roy is Roy and Worley can b e a .500 pitcher, say 12-12. If Roy is hurt, must get a new quality SP. I think RUf is much more ready to be a starting LF than any of the minor pitchers is to be a SP.

"I don't see why Soriano couldn't get a shot in RF so as to avoid impeding Ruf."

Getting very nervous about outfield defense--who plays center, Garry Maddox? Pagan is good, but I am also worried that he's using Phils as leverage against Sabean in negotiations.

Soriano has a FNTC, too. Saw that Stark predicts Soriano doesn't move until later. I think RAJ is doing due diligence and this is a longshot. Like him more than Ross or Swisher by far though.

Only if the Cubs eat a substantial chunk of his salary.


"If Ruf turns out to be the .280, 35-HR, 100 RBI guy that every single poster on BL believes he is. . ."

I think I'm actually the only poster who believes this -- or at least the only poster who is willing to own up to believing it, and face the resulting ridicule.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Sunday, December 02, 2012 at 02:34 PM

I'll own up to believing it too, BAP--I'm not afraid to go by what I've seen instead of slavishly following scouting reports. I honestly have little opinion of scouts, at least the Phillies' scouts--I think they do no more than due dilligence at best, and simply tend to stereotype players (by build, race, similarity to past players, historical stats, whatever) without actually examining their individual weaknessess or strengths: Brown is a fast, rangy black guy--he's a five-tool player. Ruf is a slow, chunky white guy--he's a bench bat at best. Mayberry had a good second-half in 2011 after being a fringe player--he's a "late bloomer" just like Jayson Werth (the scouts weren't the only ones dumb enough to think this; I was ready to hand Mayberry the keys to LF at the beginning of this season myself).

Oh, and I think NO, we should not go after Soriano. An aging, injury-prone hacker is the last thing I want--I want to see Swisher or some other player with a decent walk rate replace Pence in RF, not Soriano.

I think Ruf has a good arm. (He did pitch in slop ball in the minors.) I do not see why he could not move to RF instead of Soriano. Regardless, both will be below avg OF. Just get Hamilton in CF and sign extreme ground ball pitches and Phillies are the Champs again.

Soriano is a 'proven' bat. He is a power threat. He does not have a platoon split. What other benefit he might I have, I do not know. Is that worth paying $10M per year for? Ruf would could $0.5M and might provide similar output.

I'd be okay if they got Soriano for cheap. I would also be fine with Brown in RF and NixBerry in LF (maybe Ruf), if 3B is fixed (Youkilis or better) and CF is fixed (Victorino, Pagan, Bourn). Taking a chance on Bourjos, Sizemore, Fowler would require getting a 'proven' OF and sending Ruf to the minors.

If Cubs eat say $11-12M on the deal and only insist on a package similar to what the Phils were going to trade for Lopez (Cloyd and Valle), the Phils should definitely make this deal.

Soriano has put up solid numbers his career at CBP (.314/.358/.520 or .877 OPS with 5 HRs in 109 PAs) and his dead-pull swing is almost tailor made for CBP. He'd hit 25-30 HRs here next year as a regular in LF.

Soriano isn't as terrible in LF as some make him out to be either. The alternative right now in LF really is a combo of Nix/Ruf or Mayberry is you figure that Brown is the full-time starter in RF or that Mayberry gets some spot starts there.

People really want Nix get significant PT next year as a semi-regular? I don't. Really soured on him after getting a chance to see him play fairly regularly. Holes galore in his swing and a terrible bench player. People complain about Mayberry's limited abilities but Nix is much more limited than Mayberry.

Mayberry can play 1B, all 3 OFs positions, mashes RHP & solid PH option against RHP relievers, and has plus speed even if he is a lousy basestealer. Nix can play RF too but he isn't very good there, is below average speed wise and stinks on the bench.

Phils need to sign/trade for another veteran reliever and get an upgrade at 3B. Even signing Chavez. They are going to sign a CF via FA so I am not really that concerned about that. Just a matter of who it is and how much cash they have left over.

Figure they want to say under the luxury tax threshold to start the year and have $1-2M at least of wiggle room to make small maneuvers, that gives them about $23-$24M right now to play with before making any additions.

Other thing I don't get is why people are concerned about 'giving the younger players a shot' next year even if it to the detriment of wins/losses.

That's nuts given this team's payroll and current composition. If it means Brown sits next year vs LHP pitching most of the time for a Mayberry or another OF addition who really hits RHP well, so be it.

No, but any deal with the Cubbies should start with Sarge going back to the Windy City.

NO to Soriano. NO WAY!

Beyond stupid are the Cubs going to pick up $30M ?

He helps them win how many games?

Nope nothing against him except his age outfield is one place the Phils need to get younger to continue to rebuild.

10+ years ago...maybe. Now....NO WAY!!

Michael Christopher "Cutty" Caldwell is the first person who had this idea!!

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