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Saturday, December 08, 2012

Comments

"I don't know how awh, or others, can try and pretend otherwise. "

Jack, I gues I shouldn't be surprised by another a88hole comment from you.

I never wrote anywhere on this board that Michael Young was good at defense.

To paraphrase myself, I simply posited that it borders on insanity to draw conclusions from a sample size of ONE.

I'm sure if you looked hard enough, you could find plays like that from GG winning fielders.

It happens. D8ck.

BAP- yeah, this argument is essentially pointless until they make the signings. It depends on who they get in the OF, the SP they sign (and if he's better than Worley this year, which won't be decided until season's end), and even the setup arm they get. If they get Ross and use the money they saved on him to get Adams, or two lesser relievers like Lindstrom/Ayala, I think that would be a good trade-off.

But we do agree that Ross isn't what they should be pursuing right now, though I don't think he'd be completely useless (he kills LHP). I just think Swisher is a better and much more obvious fit.

awh, I doubt anyone was using that gif to "draw conclusions" about Young's defense. I think it's a generally accepted view, and backed by all the metrics, that Young is a lousy defensive 3B.

And in that light, the gif is about nothing more than inducing shock at just how incompetent he can be out there.

In much the same way that when Ibanez came here in 2009, it was widely accepted that he was a LF devoid of range with a rag arm. As such the gif of him throwing a ball from LF directly into the ground in front of him became wildly popular. No one used that to draw the conclusion that he couldn't throw more than 5 feet. it was just a funny gif to make light of what should be, for a Phillies fan, a disconcertingaaspect of a player's game.

The vast majority of you (if not everyone) knows absolutely nothing about Bonilla and are only regurgitating what they've read other people write about him to incorporate in their argument.

In other words, you're arguing for the sake of arguing. You have no idea if this kid will amount to anything. Thus far, he's one of about fifty thousand relief pitchers over the past decade who have impressed some scouts in the lowest levels of minor league baseball.

To that end, I'm still waiting for Domonic Strawberry to live up to the lofty expectations of these same scouts.

cut_fastball: It is unclear, without calculation, how much a HR is better than a 1B, or how much a 1B is better than a walk, or how much a walk is better than an out. That is why we have statistics like wOBA and wRC+, which calculate how much each thing is worth in run-production terms, on average.

These statistics say Revere and Mayberry are equal offensive players (though they take different paths to get there). Revere is a well-above-average fielder in CF, while Mayberry is below-average (this is obvious, and is also backed up by defensive statistics).

You're letting the 0 home runs blind you. Would Michael Bourn's ~5 HR/year be unacceptable for you? If they had traded for Denard Span (~4 HR/year), would you be making the same arguments? If they had signed Angel Pagan (~8 HR/year)?

To all who have suddenly declared my posts on the acquisition of Ben Revere "annoying" I have just 1 question: How does this team on an offensive decline plan to win games with Revere in the lineup? Especially when he slumps, and can't get a ball through the infield?

How have the Phils not just created another easy out in a lineup where too many times there are too many of those?

This team is old, with a half-dozen question marks. To question the signing of a young starting CF with zero ML HRs, regardless of his defensive prowess, is not only fair, it's warranted.

awh: For the record, I was not drawing conclusions on Young's defense by looking at a single picture. Rather, that single picture was presented as illustrative of Young's defensive skill level: rest assured, he stinks.

Revere's job is to get on base, and perhaps steal a base or two. It's not to hit HRs.

cut_fastball: Simply, he is not a worse hitter than Mayberry and he is a much better fielder.

cut, has ANYONE made the argument that Revere was a solution to ANY of our offensive needs/issues?

Didn't think so.

Revere is a great defensive CF, and elite baserunner (gaining extra bases as well as stealing bases), and a poor offensive player. No one has said otherwise.

But as I posted yesterday in response to GTown, the Phillies had three distinct problems that needed to be taken care of:

1) They needed a CF, especially a long term solution

2) They need power in their lineup

3) They needed to stay under the luxury tax threshold

I'm not ecstatic about the Revere move, but it seems that they were able to enlist two of the problems I listed above in one more. It was simply impossible to fulfill all three issues while getting a CF, and very likely impossible to fulfill even problems 1 and 2 at the same time, unless you know of a CF out there who hits for good power who was available to the Phillies.

If you know of such a player, please disclose.

cut, in other words, if the Phillies weren't able to acquire Mike Trout of Matt Kemp, it was VERY likely that they were going to be acquiring a CF that was going to be lacking in the power department.

Revere is the ultimate example of lacking for power, to be sure, and if the Phillies don't do anything else at all, then you can rant all the live long day that the Phillies didn't do anything to address their need for power.

But to rip apart Revere just because he's not a HR threat is to disregard all the things he does do well just to nitpick about the one thing he does very poorly.

"rest assured, he stinks"

GTown, I never said otherwise.

Here's the question: Is he better or worse than Wigginton?

Getting on base is nice, but it only counts for anything if someone else follows up by driving in the run. The Phillies have no shortage of players capable of the former, but a definite dearth of those capable of the latter. Stealing bases is also a nice skill, but not one which Charlie Manuel utilizes effectively. Hence, I feel Revere is miscast in this roster. And I continue to dispute that "needed to stay under the luxury tax threshold" should have been (if indeed it even was) a consideration.

...Would Michael Bourn's ~5 HR/year be unacceptable for you? If they had traded for Denard Span (~4 HR/year), would you be making the same arguments? If they had signed Angel Pagan (~8 HR/year)?

Posted by: DH Phils | Sunday, December 09, 2012 at 02:46 PM

DH Phils -- Very good point. All of those players are unacceptable to me in the face of so many lineup questions going into 2013. I'm glad none were signed.

A HR in a key spot -- heck, a ball ripped in the gap and off the wall -- is a tremendous boost to a team playing catch-up. The Phillies need a new offensive weapon; something other teams must plan around. It's a drag we've committed resources to a pop gun like Revere at CF.

Let's see how it plays out. If we somehow land Nick Swisher or even Josh Hamilton -- or better still we get big years out of Howard, Utley, Rollins and Ruiz -- chances are that Revere won't matter. Regardless, those are very large “ifs”.

awh: I'd certainly hope so. Wigginton is the single worst 3B I have ever seen. On the other hand, I had expected the Phillies would acquire at least an average defensive 3B. Young does not qualify, nor is his bat enough of a sure thing to reasonably assume a net positive offset of skills.

GTown, since 2007, the Phillies are 4th in all of baseball in total stolen bases, 1st in times caught stealing (as in the least amount of times caught) and 1st in stolen base percentage.

As such, I think you're completely off-base that this is the wrong roster for Revere, if you mean that his stolen base ability will not be used.

History suggests it will be used very well on this team.

GTown and cut: I don't necessarily disagree that this team needs power more than it needs on-base ability. I just don't think dropping John Mayberry's HR every 2 weeks matters.

If you want to argue that this was all due to Davey Lopes, you might have a bit of a point, but consider that since the beginning of the 2011 season, they're still 1st in times caught stealing and 2nd in stolen base percentage.

Over this period, they're only 17th in total stolen bases, but there are mitigating factors. They lost Vic for half a season last year (he had 39 SB last year), and Chase Utley, he's always been a good source for 10-20 SB, has been dealing with knee injuries which really limited him in 2011, not to mention all the games he missed.

Lastly, there have been two "fast" OF taking up lots of time on this roster, who for whatever reason, simply can't steal bases, in Mayberry and Brown.

All in all, I'm quite confident that Revere will steal ~40 SB this year, and this talent will not be wasted.

Fatalotti: How 'bout since Davey Lopes departed? The Phillies were near league avg. in SB last season, & there was no apparent rhyme or reason to when players decided to steal. I simply don't believe Charlie values speed. He waits for XBH, & Revere is incapable of providing them.

Fatalotti: Good anticipation of my response! What I expect to see is something like Revere legging out an IFH, stealing 2B, & then walking back to the dugout when the following batter pops out on one pitch.

I'm still trying to understand how GTown thinks Revere will be 'miscast' on this team. I'm sure he genuinely thinks this, but the arguments he's making are so flawed that I'm seriously blown away.

Between that and cut_fastball's posts on how Mayberry is the next McCovey, I feel like I'm through the looking glass and into Wonderland.

GTown, see my 3:12 post.

Also, Juan Pierre had 37 stolen bases last year, Rollins had 30 and Vic had 24 here in just 4 months. Utley had 11, and to be sure, if he weren't dealing with the knee problems would have had more.

If we just assume that Vic stuck around all year, and we add in his other 15 SB, the Phillies would have been 7th in the MLB last year in number of stolen bases, and 4th in the NL.

I just don't think you're correct here.

Fatalotti: See my 3.15PM post. Considering Charlie's "Swing Away!" mandate, I do not believe the Phillies number of SB necessarily correlates to more runs scored ... although if there is any more detailed analysis of this available, I'd love to see it.

*3.18PM

Forgot to add Pence to the list of seemingly fast OF who just can't steal bases for whatever reason.

It seems to me that Charlie actually loves the SB, as his team has always been the best at stealing at the right times, and it's not because they barely run, as I showed they've been 4th overall in in stolen bases in the last 6 seasons.

Certainly losing Lopes hurt, but I don't think that once Lopes left, Charlie began hating the stolen base.

When he's had the players who could steal bases, and they've been healthy, those players have racked up impressive stolen base totals and percentages, and I don't see any reason to think Revere will be any different.

Now, if he uses him in the leadoff spot, I'd argue that he's miscast there, but that's an argument to be had if Manuel actually does that.

Iceman persists in mistaking Beerleaguer for Polemicsleaguer. Both boring, & entirely unenlightening.

Whether or not we have the good hitters does nothing to negate the fact that if a player steals a base, regardless of the base/out situation, that player, simply by virtue of nabbing an extra base, has inherently raised the Phillies odds of scoring.

Since it's pretty clear that Manuel is not averse to stolen bases, and in fact, he, along with Lopes when he was here, instill in this team a very serious and well-guided approach of when to steal and how to not get caught, I'm quite excited for the aspect of Revere that is an exceptional base stealer to be on this team.

Fatalotti: I do understand your enthusiasm, & the reasons behind it. That said, I'd much rather have a player w/ average speed & a high SLG%. For a Charlie Manuel team there are too many precision tools, & a lack of hammers.

GTown, I don't disagree with you.

I'm just not sure that the player you describe and who also plays CF was available to the Phillies.

Perhaps I'm not thinking of someone, though.

GTown- I engage with people here that are actually objective in their analysis and don't engage in the ape-like commentary heard on WIP. With you and cut_fastball, I simply get out some popcorn and enjoy the show. Like I said before, it's like reading a talk radio transcript.

Fatti, Upton, who has some power, WAS available.

Not that I think he's worth what he got from Atlanta. I don't.

awh, good point. Completely forgot about Upton.

And, leaving money aside, I'd rather have Upton on this roster than Revere, even for the next 5 years.

Obviously the money was important to the Phils.

Here's How I'd line up the current team, with the exception that they could add someone else:

Revere
Young
Utley
Howard
Ruf - LF, if his bat proves to be real
JRoll
Chooch
RF - Brownberry

According to this report, the Phillies are picking up $5.5 M of Young's 2013 salary, and the two teams are splitting the $1.2 M that Young requested to account for the difference in state tax.

awh, yeah, Upton was really the only guy available that fits this fictional description of the power-hitting CF some think we should've gotten. And I guarantee you if he'd have been signed, the same people would be whining about his OBP.

Upton also had plenty of flaws and question marks that, like you said, make him not at all worth what he was paid.

If the Phils add a bat like Swisher, that's Utley-Howard-Swisher to drive guys in against RHP and Swisher-Mayberry-Ruiz-Young against LHP. That is at the very least adequate power to be complemented with speed from Revere (and a lesser extent Rollins). Right now, they're a bat short to that end, but they're still in the position to add salary.

Of course, some people simply don't like Swisher and use that as a reason for not wanting him signed. So there's that argument, also.

I would have preferred Upton over Revere.

I think the Phillies FO would have as well - they did make him an offer.

But 5/75 is more than I would have paid, and on this I agree with the FO.

awh, I know you founded the "J-Roll in the 6-hole club", but I'm not sure that Revere is the guy I want supplanting him there.

Apparently, resident genius Will Schweitzer doesn't believe in the value of scouting reports.

Does anyone else get the sense that most posters here think it's impossible to win with speed, defense and pitching?

More dingers!

Chicks dig the long ball!

...Between that and cut_fastball's posts on how Mayberry is the next McCovey, I feel like I'm through the looking glass and into Wonderland.

Posted by: Iceman | Sunday, December 09, 2012 at 03:19 PM

Iceman, you don't know what you're talking about. I've made numerous references to a "RH Willie McCovey". I've never stated we had one in JMJ. I stated I "hoped" he'd evolve into such, especially after his explosive stretch (pardon the pun!) in '11.

You need more straw man practice. Not many are interested in my posts anyway, misrepresented or otherwise.

cut: I'm very interested in your posts. I like your enthusiasm and appreciate your depth of knowledge. I mean that.

Just think you get over-excited about some things, like Mayberry, or disliking Revere. Something tells me it would be a lot of fun to have a beer and talk baseball with you. If BL ever has a meet-up at a bar or something (which I am still encouraging), I hope you'd be there.

Does anyone else get the sense that most posters here think it's impossible to win with speed, defense and pitching?

Even if it did, the Phillies are deficient. Who's fast? Revere &, when he chooses to run, Rollins. Maybe Utley, but that's a big maybe. Anyone else? And where's the overall defensive improvement? CF is better, but CF was a strength w/ Vic anyway. The corners are iffy, & 3B is still a cesspool. Will Howard & Utley be any better defensively? One hopes, but it's not a given. And when you look at pitching, Halladay's a huge question mark, there's a spot open in the rotation & the bullpen is the same as it was. As things currently stand the Phillies are not set to field a better team than the one they rolled out in '12.

"If BL ever has a meet-up at a bar or something (which I am still encouraging), I hope you'd be there."

Assuming 100% turn-out, something tells me that about a half dozen posters wouldn't make it out of that meet-up alive.

From MLB Trade Rumors: "The Dodgers have signed Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Terms of the deal, which comes only 20 hours after signing Zack Greinke to a six-year, $147MM contract, are not yet known.
The Dodgers expect Ryu to be part of their starting rotation next season with Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano, and Aaron Harang.

Hmmm. Eight veteran SPs. Wonder if Rube has a trading partner.

"As things currently stand the Phillies are not set to field a better team than the one they rolled out in '12."

===

For the simple fact that, as far as we know, Utley, Howard, and Halladay are no longer injured, this statement is false.

At the very least, there isn't enough information to make a call either way.

Iceman -- Thanks! The meet-up sounds like a blast. I wonder if JW can get us a deal on Kevlar vests (j/k!!)?

Cyclic: We don't know, which is exactly the point.

BAP- my grand idea to avoid that would be to not reveal who everyone is until the very end. Instead, everyone wears a nametag with a number and throughout the night, everyone fills out a paper with their guesses as to who each number is. Only Weitzel would know. Then at the end, whoever has the most guesses correct gets his/her check covered and split between the other guests. Everyone's identity is then revealed and hopefully JW will have arranged for two state troopers to escort clout out of the building safely.

"As things currently stand the Phillies are not set to field a better team than the one they rolled out in '12."

GTown, I gotta disagree.

Assuming that Howard, Utley and Halladay are healthy to start the season, they'll be better than they were last season.

Unless, like some other posters here, you don't think those three will produce better than they did in 2012?

clout: Yes, the same scouting reports that pegged Domonic Brown as the savior and ignored Darin Ruf. Doesn't take a genius to take these people with a grain of salt.

The official Beerleaguer Meetup will feature 30 people saying they are "Sophist".

awh: All three? No. I think Howard will be the closest to what he was immediately before being injured. Lots of RBI, lots of Ks. I don't think Utley will last the season. And I have no friggin' clue about how much to expect from Halladay, but I don't envision him being a Cy Young candidate going forward, even if "healthy".

The Dodgers are out of control...and yet a lot of that money isnt really allocated well. 8 SP is ridiculous.


I think Howard and Utley will be near 100% next year. Doc is the one that I dont expect that much from.

From MLBTradeRumors: The Rangers will assume $10MM of Young's $16MM salary and the Phillies will be responsible for the $1.2MM Young will receive for waiving his no-trade clause, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.

So we're paying $7.2 million for him for AAV?

Ouch.

NEPP: Those numbers are contradicted in the story linked in Fatalotti's 3.45PM post, which indicates the Rangers will pick up $10.5 million of owed salary, & the two teams will split the added $1.2 million.

Oh...not as bad then.

When I go to games, I wonder whether anyone around me reads/writes on BL. A lot of people I can rule out, by their seeming lack of attention to the game, or because they leave early, or don't know who's injured and who isn't.

Will Schweitzer: Predicting the future is hard.

Your argument is equivalent to saying weather forecasts are useless because of these two times they were wrong.

They certainly should not be treated as gospel and are often wrong (as anyone in the field of forecasting the future is), but scouting reports provide insight. I am certain that in the long run, scouts predict player performance better than untrained message board posters.

"I did not refer to either Revere or Young as "garbage". You'll want to be wary of intruding upon clout's monopoly of lies & misrepresentations." -- GTown Dave

"3B is still a cesspool" -- GTown Dave

So he's definitely not garbage, but he is sewage.

will s: "You have no idea if this kid will amount to anything."

And you know what Michael Young's 2013 numbers will be? No.

Mick O: I think it's both fair & possible to characterize Young's defense as crap w/out impugning the character of the player in general.

From earlier today, someone was talking about how trading Bonilla shouldn't matter because its such a good idea to get a veteran 3B for 1 year.

And why is that a good thing? Oh yea, because it allows Cody Asche to take over in 2014.

How does someone defend a trade by discounting the value of a prospect given up, and then explain how some other prospect is going to be ready to take over in the future?

B/c Bonilla is a relief prospect, and while those have value, they're easiser to replace?

Forget the perceived quality of the prospect. One might reasonably question why give up two players of any sort for Young when he had already been notified of his impending bench status by Texas. It's an overpay for a 1-year rental of an old ballplayer.

The problem with the Phils is not the old guys (like you all say) it truly lies with the youngesters they have believed in and aren't getting the job done. The whole bullpen (except Paplebon) JMJ DB Galvis if all of these guys would perform as good as they were expected to the Phils wouldn't be in this spot we would have the right mixture of age with youth.

"Will Schweitzer: Predicting the future is hard."

I find predicting the future fairly easy

Chase Utley will be involved in a trade with the Dodgers no doubt for a starting pitcher. Easy.

Beard -- Sophist would be the one not telling you who he is.

If there ever was a meet up I think some would be easier to spot than others. For example:
BAP would be the guy in the Bonds jersey.
Iceman and TTI would be ganging up on MG.
Will would be all alone yelling about something to no one in particular.
Jack would be pissing off the bartender.
Clout wouldn't show up, but then would proceed to rip everyone who did.
GTown would be hard to spot cause he's basically like every Philly fan I've ever met.
Bedrosian's Beard would, oddly enough, be clean shaven.
Sophist would be waxing poetic to some hot chick about wOBA and ERA+.
Fatalotti would have his laptop with him.


Did I forget anybody?

norb, I don't own a laptop. :(

GTown would be hard to spot cause he's basically like every Philly fan I've ever met.

There's a lot to be said for hiding in plain sight. :-)

Whoabuh. What kind of bird are you?

Did I forget anybody?

DPatrone's source will tell him the location of the meet up well before it is revealed on Beerleaguer. DPatrone will fail to check back in & verify, & wind up missing the event due to having gone to the wrong venue.

Isn't there an Andy who would be talking in haiku?

And Scott could perhaps work in a bobbing Cliff Lee head.

I miss Old Phan - He'd be there making everyone laugh with his puns.

Lake Fred, doesn't he make up the conversations between Cole and Heidi, for example?

Fata would be talking about all the players' stats like baseball reference.

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