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Saturday, December 08, 2012

Comments

Sounds like we'll all be nervous with Young playing third in the late innings when the Phils have a lead.

Same way I felt whenever Dobbs played there.

Sounds like we'll all be nervous with Young playing third in the late innings when the Phils have a lead.

Now why would we have any reason to worry about Young's de ...

Oh. Nevermind.

JW, Corey , jr-
Wow, the number of threads and stories has been impressive lately.
Late night Saturday night even.

On the recent moves, I think Rube is filling holes with reasonable cost options that do have some upside to them.
Maybe Moneyball Philly Style for 2012.

Maybe we will all be carrying pitchforks and calling for Rube's demise by All Star Game.

My thoughts are more scattered when I think of the possibilies of a RF power hitter acquired in a trade. No way they go directly FA now. There must have been some big OF lowball FA idea or a trade plan back in July, otherwise they would not have relieved themselves of Vic and Pence.

Amaro is definitely going to surprise us with a new addition to the rotation. Someone not being discussed and probably cheap also. If he keeps this up can he fill all of our holes......A 2013 Phillies team with no holes going into the season. A fan can dream.

that's possibilities of a Stanton trade.

Is there anyone who thinks Vic was going to be here in 2013? I get the distinct feeling he wasn't. Therefore, describing Vic as being dumped or the Phils having relieved themselves of him seems moot. If they got something of value back in trade for a guy who wasn't going to be with the team, so much the better. Lindbloom didn't work out but Ethan Martin might.

G-Town'
Nice clip.
Looks like last season post-Polly, pre-Frandsen.

Frandsen and Galvis will be the late inning defensive caddies for Young and Utley.

I guess cut-fastball is too young to remember Whitey. He didn't make the HOF for his HR numbers.

Conway -- At least he hit 29 in his career (with none in '57, '60 and '61). Regardless, if I recall, it was Whitey who had the most hits in the 1950's.

A decade that featured Ted Williams, Mays, Musial and Mantle amongst others. Good luck with that, Ben Revere.

My feeling on this trade is sort of blah.

I think given the other terrible options at 3B, Young is fine. But I would also say that to the people saying "who cares that we gave up Bonilla?", the whole logic of getting Young as that it didn't cost us very much. So when it comes out that it actually did cost us a decent prospect, yeah, that matters.

And Young doesn't really get us much closer to the playoffs. He is, best case most optimistic scenario, a 2-win upgrade, and, most likely, less than that.

But take what you can get at the margin. So, like I said,blah.

cut_fastball: Your posts have gotten so nonsensical that I doubt you're serious. Why is your standard of comparison for Ben Revere, in two separate posts now, the very best outfielders to have ever played baseball?

Is it possible that there is a middle ground where Revere is somewhat better than John Mayberry and doesn't cost very much?

Nice post, Bubba. I agree with the Moneyball Philly Style for 2012 description of Rube's moves so far. He's filled two big holes with better than average players on the cheap. Now he can dazzle us with surprise moves and filler.

cut_fastball: You are dumb.

Give me anibal Sanchez and swisher now. Forget relief.

Quietly, the team has gotten better against LHP. Revere has reverse splits and actually hit over .300 last year against lefties, and Young has mashed LHP his entire career and, even in an awful year last year, hit .300 and OPSed ~.800 against them. So at the very least, the weakness the lineup had against LHP- which will be there as long as Utley-Howard-Brown are in the lineup- has been lessened by the addition of these two regulars.

I'm not sure what's better: cut_fastball's consistent endorsement of BAP's logic, his comparison of Mayberry to McCovey, or using Ashburn as the standard to which Ben Revere should be held.

No matter what, we want him on this site, we need him on this site.

Yeah right, non-prospect in A ball.
Bonilla, from a'stuff' perspective, is right behind Aumont IMO. And Bonilla knows where the ball is going when he throws it. Texas should convert him back to a starter where he'd profile as a #3.

From all accounts Young is 'horrible' defensively. If we went that route just get Mark Reynolds who will have a higher OPS than Young in 2013.
Young no longer profiles as a middle order bat with less than 10 HR power. I really do not want Utley then Howard hitting 3rd and 4th.

I suppose I have an inflated view of Youkilis' projection for 2013. I think he'd give 3+ WAR at 3B even in his likely 120 games.

I think Phillies gave up too much for Revere because I think he will not get any better but at least he is "young".
Young is not (funny). With Bonilla in the package I would have wanted another $3M paid by Texas.

Kevin Frandsen has earned a ton of my respect. Despite knowing he's out of a starting job (not that he was ever guaranteed one), he's praising the Young trade on his Twitter, and also commented on Jayson Stark's twitter that ..."I wasn't that bad of an option, was I ;)..."

I'm wondering if he'll be the Utility Infielder, or find his way back in LV.

Pxh Philly.....Texas also knew that the Phils where in a Pinch for a 3rd basemen. I think they had the slight advantage here in the trade. Rube from what i know of him seems to think mostly in the right now and i worry about that later...

Young's going to hit 30 HR this year, and Ben Revere is going to be kicked out of baseball for his lack of HR power.

Dh Phils - great post. Amazing insight.

If Ben revere doesn't equal or exceed willy mays numbers and defense I will be very disappointed

There has been a disturbing trend of the "and a prospect" portion of the trade being significant (Domingo Santana, Trevor May and now Bonilla) This trade looks good now but might sting in a few years.

Losing Linblom is no big deal. I think Young will be a little better than what we had. Who really knows what Bonilla will be? That said, after Rube's moves so far, I still see us as the 3rd best team in the division.

BTW, in looking at the video that GTown posted above, I'm shocked, shocked, that so many here would recat to a sample size of one.

Besides, if you look at it closely it looks like Young expected the ball to hop and it skipped under his glove. He got his glove there in time, but the ball skipped under it. Poor judgement, or bad luck?

I'd take Young for 1 year before Youk for 2 or 3. All eyes on Asche this year in the minors.

As long as he can stop most balls hit right at him I'll be happy. Does he have a strong and accurate arm?

Train, IMHO, you, like many others here, tend to overemphasize the recent past in your thinking.

Let's review:

There seems to be universal agreement here that 2013 will be more dependent on Halladay, Howard and Utley's performances than anything else.

Therefore, what you are saying is that you expect them, collectively, to produce the way they did last season.

What happens if Utley and Howard play full seasons? Howard had 56 RBI in only 71 games. Utley had an OPS of .793, with 45 RBI in only 83 games. Will having them producing for a full season make a difference?

Halladay had his worst season since 2000, and his second worst EVER. His health is the only concern, but surely the FO is monitoring it, and would have been hesitant to trade Worley if they thought Doc couldn't rebound. He doesn't need to be as good as he was in 2010/11, and if he's only as good as he was in 2007 it will still be a huge lift in production from 2012.

With his work ethic and drive you expect a 2012?

So, methinks you need to consider that all three of them will be more productive this season.

On what basis do you ass-u-me they won't be?

Also, Sophist had it right in an earlier thread:

For a team in the Phillies position, run suppression will as more wins than additional scoring.

To wit, I went here

http://replacementlevel.com/stuff/sg/Calculators.html

and asjust run differentials from the 2012 season. If you add 80 runs scored to the Phillies total (684) you add 9 additional wins. OTOH, if you subtract 80 runs surrendered from their total (680) you add 10 additional wins.

I guess RAJ made the calculation that adding Revere will take more runs off the board than Worley will on the mound.

awh - that website just does the pytag win thm for you. same deal.

Sounds like we'll all be nervous with Young playing third in the late innings when the Phils have a lead.

Now why would we have any reason to worry about Young's de ...

Oh. Nevermind.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Saturday, December 08, 2012 at 11:21 PM

I predict a lot of Major League Roger Dorn references this year.

I agree with PhxPhilly on Bonilla. His stuff is excellent. Plus, when he went to the bullpen, he added 2-3 mph to his fastball and now throws mid-90s.

He really is a good prospect. As for putting him back into the rotation, that depends on development of his slider. Right now he's got a great sinking fastball and a very good changeup, but no quality third pitch, which is why he got sent to the 'pen. He continues to work on the slider and, if he can eventually gain command of it, he absolutely could be a #3 starter.

Of course that is a big IF.

I love how angry people are about Bonilla. He is a RP who pitched 33 innings at AA last year. It just shows how sad our organizational depth is when we shriek in horror that a top "8-15" prospect WHO IS A RELIEF PITCHER is the centerpiece of a trade.

Nothing to see here, move along. Here is the question to ask BLers: Would you rather: A.) Have Bonilla in the fold for the 2014 bullpen with Youk blocking Asche OR B.) Have a short term solution to 3b for 2013 and be able to transition to a young, controllable player as the future at the hot corner in 2014 (assuming Asche continues his development)

I know someone is going to say: That is a big IF on Asche. It is just a big IF that Bonilla keeps up his impressive 33 innings in AA from last year.

I love that people are touting Michael Young as being able to man all four IF positions, INCLUDING SHORTSTOP!!!

Yeah, he can play SS in the same sense that Darin Ruf can play RF, or Chase Utley can play 3B.

Unless there are serious injuries, with Galvis in the fold, there's really no reason why Yuong should ever see any other positions than 3B and 1B.

BTW, if you want to view video of prospects, MLB Prospect Portal is a great site. Here's a link to video of Lisalverto Bonilla:

http://www.youtube.com/user/MLBProspectPortal/videos?query=Lisalberto+Bonilla

In years past the general consensus on Amaro was this:

" He always jumps in too fast and sets the market. Stupid ROOB."

This year:

"Why is he letting all these people go and not doing anything? Stupid ROOB."

In years past:

"Of course Amaro would sign an old guy. We need to get younger and all he does is bring in old guys to big contracts. Stupid ROOB"

This year:

"Why would he trade a pitcher for a centerfielder like Revere, and why would we trade for Michael Young for one year? Stupid ROOB."

It is almost as if people are not ever happy.

The Young move feels like patchwork, but it was probably the right move in this instance. Youkilis is probably a better player but may have cost 8-10 million dollars over a 2 or 3 year span which inhibits doing things in 2014 and 2015. Here we have a stopgap that can be gone at the end of this year if necessary. Revere fills a necessary hole and if they use him at the top of the order, it gives this team a legitimate table setter which they do not necessarily have if I am to believe the arguments against JRoll for the past 5 years.

I still want them to sign Swisher and then grab a cheap starting pitcher and right handed reliever. Do that and I think this off-season has been a rousing success for Amaro as far as filling the holes this team had. A line-up of something like:

Revere
Utley
Swisher
Howard
Ruiz
Rollins
Young
Brown/Ruf

would be very good with Nix/Mayberry/Frandsen/Galvis on the bench.

Unless the Phillies carry only 11 pitchers, I don't see how Galvis will have a spot on the ML roster....

Frandsen
Nix
Mayberry
Ruf
Kratz

Right? Unless they don't sign a starting RF... Or you could just flat out cut Nix?

noname: Bonilla is a better prospect than Asche.

You bash posters who like Bonilla, which raises the question, why do you like Asche so much? What do you know about Asche, for example, that BA doesn't know?

noname: You're right about the 12 pitchers. But it won't be Galvis getting squeezed out. They won't carry 6 outfielders.

Re: Bonilla being a better prospect than Asche

Curious if that would've been the case in the preseason prospect rankings. Not arguing the point, just wondering aloud.

I saw one AB by Asche in the AFL. He swung at the first 3 pitches thrown by some big flamethrower and fouled them all off very weakly. He looked completely overmatched. He then proceeded to work a walk. Both disappointing and impressive in the same at bat. Only one at bat so I can't take much from it but I did find it interesting. He also looked kind of small to me. And no I'm not going to trot out the lamest BL insider joke of all time.

noname: Bonilla is a better prospect than Asche.

You bash posters who like Bonilla, which raises the question, why do you like Asche so much? What do you know about Asche, for example, that BA doesn't know?

Posted by: clout | Sunday, December 09, 2012 at 09:58 AM

I don't like Asche per se. This is the list of potential 2014 FA options at 3rd (from MLBTR):

Third basemen

Wilson Betemit (32) - $3.2MM vesting option
Alberto Callaspo (31)
Eric Chavez (36)
Mike Fontenot (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (38)
Martin Prado (30)
Juan Uribe (34)
Michael Young (37)

It would be better (IMO) to keep our options open at 3rd for an internal solution next year than to sign an aging Youk for 2-3 years and block a potential young, controllable player. Bonilla is a relief pitcher. His sample size (33 IP) last year at AA does not make him irreplaceable in the near future. We got plenty young, controllable RP already at the ML level. In terms of risk/reward, Bonilla was expendable to the organization. I just don't get why people are acting like we gave up the next Mo Rivera.

Texas fan posted MY's average dropped when he was in the middle of the lineup and tried to provide power. Proof: look what he did the last month when back in the 2 hole and hitting to RF.
Didn't check it just what I read. sure some of you statistic experts can check it out.
As posted many times: Hope all of you who think Asche is the answer are correct.Has a long way to go.

noname: I don't disagree with your basic point. But in your post you seemed to equate the risk level of Bonilla succeeding as the same as Asche succeeding. They're quite different.

IMHO, Asche has less than a 10% chance of being an everyday thirdbaseman in MLB. Bonilla has about a 50% chance of being an effective MLB reliever and maybe a 30% of being in an MLB rotation.

In other words, no plans of any kind should be built on the assumption that Asche will succeed.

BedBeard: "Re: Bonilla being a better prospect than Asche.
Curious if that would've been the case in the preseason prospect rankings. Not arguing the point, just wondering aloud."

Baseball America pre-season had Bonilla as the Phillies 12th best prospect. Asche did not make the top 30.

Outside of Phuture Phillies, I've never seen or heard of a scout or report calling Asche one of the Phils top prospects.

Jr: Young posted an .838 OPS in Sept/Oct in 125 PAs.

Maybe he's not washed up.

I like both trades overall.

clout - if the Rangers had Asche, would you trade Bonilla for him straight up?

***Outside of Phuture Phillies, I've never seen or heard of a scout or report calling Asche one of the Phils top prospects***

Considering that PP is pretty much worthless since James hung it up, that's pretty damning.

He's most likely Jason Donald 2.0...but maybe he's something better...maybe.

Does anyone know if Manny Pacquiao has woken up yet?

sophist: Yes. Here's why: Even if Asche's bat is for real, IMHO he won't play 3B in MLB. He'll be moved to 1B or DH. And he'll need a big power jump to be an everyday guy at either corner.

Entering his age 23 season, we'll learn a lot about him at LV this coming year.

Bonilla is same age and should pitch at same level and is a lot more likely to be a useful MLB player.

noname--I haven't heard that it would take 3 years to get Youkilis. Then again, I haven't heard that the Phillies were a strong suitor for his services. Maybe he doesn't want to play in the NL, who knows. From what I have seen, the choices were between Frandsen as your main third baseman or Young. I don't think Amaro wanted to part with Bonilla, but perhaps, in exchange for eating over 10 million in salary, he had no choice. I would rather see them deal a guy who is already in the pen in AA than part with the 5 or so prospects of comparable age and talent who are starters (Morgan, Martin, Biddle, Pettibone, etc). Especially after already dealing one of them last week.

NEPP: "He's most likely Jason Donald 2.0...but maybe he's something better...maybe."

He could be. He put up big numbers last season. But his weak glove, lack of speed and lack of HR power are issues for me.

FWIW, you may recall I wasn't as high on Donald as most here. But I liked him more than I do Asche. I really thought Donald's bat and versatility could get him a job and his glove was at least passable at 2B.

So far, looks like I was too optimistic on Donald.

clout - so you'd prefer Bonilla?

Most scouting reports pre-draft I found on Asche say he projects as a plus bat but it's not clear (for reasons you stated) whether he'd stick at 3B.

Couple things on the Donald vs Asche comparison:

- Donald could play all IF positions, so even if his bat didn't develop along the lines of the way he hit AA first time through, guy had more value on a roster

- Donald's AA numbers came when he was 23 (he'd turn 24 at the end of that year); Asche turned 22 in July of his AA season. Both were college players. But along the same lines, Donald had the NYPL, 50 games in the Sallie league, and 80+ games at Clearwater prior to his success in Reading (and then failure in LV).

Asche is ahead of Donald because he never played in Lakewood. It's that jump to Clearwater and then to Reading midseason that makes Asche's success more impressive.

All pretty moot if he can't field 3B and is a sub .750 bat though.

sophist: Yes, I prefer Bonilla.

For Asche, the bat is his ticket. I don't think his glove can play at 3B. One report suggested he might be tried in LF, but I don't think he's got the arm for it. If he had Darin Ruf HR power, it would be a different story, but he projects 10-15 HR power at best. Add to that no speed and a bad glove and it suggests to me he's not going toi be an everyday player in MLB.

Could he be a bench guy? Absolutely, especially if he continues to hit .300 in Triple A.

Some scouts think he can hang at 3B...he'll have a full year in Lehigh to prove it.

I'd give it a 20% chance.

clout - Sounds like Greg Dobbs.

The Dodgers are paying more in 2013 to not have Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez (7.3 million) than the Phillies are paying for Revere and Young. So, there's that...

I also think no one is discussing Young's reputation in the clubhouse. The Phillies always (over?) value these sorts of intangibles, no surprise they wanted a guy who plays the game "right."

"SUNDAY, 8:31am: Greinke has a full player opt-out clause after the third year of the deal, a Dodgers source tells Jim Bowden of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Furthermore, if Greinke is traded during the course of the contract he can opt out at end of year.


Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#isXobfRRIZ62IGJG.99 "

In an odd way those opt clauses can be team friendly.

    …Your posts have gotten so nonsensical that I doubt you're serious. Why is your standard of comparison for Ben Revere, in two separate posts now, the very best outfielders to have ever played baseball?
    Is it possible that there is a middle ground where Revere is somewhat better than John Mayberry and doesn't cost very much?
    Posted by: DH Phils | Sunday, December 09, 2012 at 01:12 AM

There’s nothing nonsensical about comparing Ben Revere to the very best CF in the game for the simple reason that as a stated previously, Revere presents a “bottle-tight” absence of a long-ball threat; at a position frequented by very good offensive players.

I thought long and hard about the trade before I wrote. Face it; Werth is long, long gone; our “Big Piece” and slugging 2nd basemen are huge question marks, and Jimmy Rollins may or may not hit the giddy total of 20 HRs again in 2013. In the face of such a dearth of power options;

• Revere better flat out pick it and get his base knocks to boot; otherwise, he’s a liability on this ageing team, and
• John Claiborn Mayberry Jr.’s .245/.301/,345 with 14 HRs in ’12 looks pretty good. Why not JMJ as an everyday CF? Is his defense that bad? He's playing for his first arbitration, so it's inconceivable that he's not motivated to improve at lot. At least opposing managers would have to contemplate the possibility of the long ball when JMJ’s up there hacking.

Take Darin Ruf. Most could care less what he does in left – nearly all wait breathlessly to see if he gets 30+ HRs in ’13. If you got no power, the rest of your game better be damn near perfect. That’s a lot to ask for Revere, ostensibly, an everyday player new to the crucible that’s Philadelphia.

P.S.: lorecore – interesting. What else you got?

@ Clout

I personally don't doubt Bonilla's stuff, but I also don't think he's worth much precisely because he's a projected bullpen piece. And that's assuming everything works out great. So I'd actually value him less than Asche because of the position he plays, even if he's more talented and has better odds of succeeding in the Big Leagues. A bullpen pitcher is the easiest thing to find in the majors.

@ Everyone else
I don't think we'll wind up missing Bonilla all that much. Even if he becomes a good closer. Odds are much higher he flames out after a year or two in the majors. Which is true for just about every prospect, even the highly touted ones. Anyone remember Lou Marson? Jason Donald? Jason Knapp? 3 of the 4 players traded in the Cliff Lee deal. The only player who's done well for the Indians has been Carlos Carrasco, if by well you mean a back of the rotation starter and he's just had Tommy John. Marson is a permanent backup, as is Donald (since neither has an MLB-level bat), and Jason Knapp was released by the Indians (and is out of baseball).

And people were calling the trade a win for the Phillies, but Cleveland got good prospects. Doesn't look that way now, does it? We weren't gonna get Young for nothing, not without taking substantially more salary. So if we didn't give up Bonilla, we wouldn't have 20 million to get a corner OF bat, a starter, and a relief pitcher. Try 15 million. Tops. So you can forget about Swisher, or even Ross.

Yeah, it's either or. Stop thinking otherwise.

Again, I make the point to those who are saying "whatever, who cares that we gave up Bonilla."

The whole point of the Michael Young trade was that you took a chance on a decent player that's worth it because it didn't cost very much.

If the justification for the deal is that it didn't cost very much, then evaluating what it actually cost matters a great deal.

Also, whether you use the "sample size of one" of the GIF above, or a sample size of his entire career, Michael Young stinks at defense at 3B.

I don't know how awh, or others, can try and pretend otherwise.

RAJ subscribes to TINSTAAPP - there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. He knows the odds of a minor-league pitcher's being successful in the majors are low, particularly for guys with control issues. Even the "can't miss" guys like Kyle Drabek miss a fair percentage of the time due to injuries, etc.

It's painful to watch at times because we all like to dream on the "baby aces." Every once in a while, one of those guys makes it through to stardom (Gio Gonzalez). Looking at the big picture, though, Rube probably has it right - at least for a team in "win now" mode like the Phils.

I'm not a great fan of Mayberry and I agree that Revere's OBP & defense should be an upgrade, despite his total lack of power. Still, it's hard for me to shake the feeling that an OF of Revere, Ross, and Ruf/Brown is worse than an OF of Mayberry, Pence, and Ruf/Brown. And while Ross will probably turn out to be $5 or $6M cheaper than Pence, that's $5M or $6M saved to do what? To find a starting pitcher who probably won't be as good as the guy we never would have needed to trade away if Mayberry were our centerfielder.

In other words, if the Revere move was about saving money so we can sign Cody Ross and a pitcher to replace Worley, that is not only a likely downgrade at 2 positions, but it's a downgrade that never had to happen if the Phillies had simply stood pat during the regular season.

John Claiborn Mayberry Jr.’s .245/.301/,345 with 14 HRs in ’12 looks pretty good. Why not JMJ as an everyday CF? Is his defense that bad?

That offensive line (SLG was actually .395) isn't horrid but it also isn't good, and yes, his defense is that bad in CF. The man cannot track a ball over his head. He'd have to play very deep to cover up that problem, which would lead to a ton of shallow singles in CF. For a team contemplating Ruf and Brown on the corners, putting Mayberry in CF is suicide.

He's playing for his first arbitration, so it's inconceivable that he's not motivated to improve at lot. At least opposing managers would have to contemplate the possibility of the long ball when JMJ’s up there hacking.

Has motivation ever been an issue for JMJ? He's been trying to win first an MLB job, then a starting job, throughout his career. Why do you think he will suddenly become a much better player at 28 years old now that he's up for arbitration?

He is what he is - a fourth OF who mashes LHP and can play a bit of 1B. That's useful, but it's not an everyday solution. He'll get 250-300 ABs subbing for Howard, Brown, and Revere primarily against LHP, and that's the best way to get value out of him.

cut_fastball approves the logic in BAP's 12:11PM post.

Iceman: Rather than just throwing around gratuitous insults the way clout does, please educate me: what part of that post did you disagree with? Do you think an OF of Revere, Ross, and Ruf/Brown is better than an OF of Mayberry, Pence, and Ruf/Brown?

Michael Young @ $5million for Bonilla and Lindblom is not giving up a whole lot. You still have to give to get.

BAP: define better

bap: agreed, getting a CF and a 3B for $6.5M better result in significant upgrade(s) elsewhere.

TTI: I'm not even sure where you're going with this argument but, if it starts out by asking me to define the word "better," it doesn't strike me as a very promising argument.

On a trade that has already been beat to death already Jr brings up an interesting point:

"Texas fan posted MY's average dropped when he was in the middle of the lineup and tried to provide power. Proof: look what he did the last month when back in the 2 hole and hitting to RF."

Young did hit much better last year when he was either in the No. 2 or 6 hole. Only hit in the No 2 though 11 games last year. Take any numbers he put up over 11 games with a grain of salt.

Young was more productive out of the No 6 hole though in 52 games there (.289/.337/.421 in 208 PAs). Again a really SSS but his OPS was 100 pts higher than out of the No 5 spot (.268/.294/.348).

In 2011, Young was primarily used in the cleanup spot but also saw a fair amount of time in the 3-5 spots.

In 2010, Young hit out of the No 2 spot.

In 2009, Young hit mostly out of the No 2 hole again but also had 25 games in the No 3 spot. Production was similar.

In 2008, Young was mostly used out of the No 2 but saw 36 games in the No 3 hole. His numbers were over 100 pts higher (OPS) out of the 2 spot.

Overall in his career, Young has primarily been used in the No 2 hole (3754 PAs) but also seen a fair amount of ABs batting leadoff (1146 PAs) and No 3 hole (1329 PAs). Young hasn't batted leadoff though in several years.

His overall numbers are highest in the No 2 hole (.823 OPS) and by a pretty margin over No 3 (.755 OPS) and leadoff (.776 OPS).

Pretty hard to make any real conclusions from these numbers given the length of his career but I do hope Cholly pencils in Young in the No 2 hole & doesn't try him in the 5-hole if the Phils don't pick up another RH power bat.

Really hope that Cholly regardless of what additional moves are made goes:

Revere
Young
Utley
Howard

I just want JRoll and his sub .320 OBP out of the leadoff spot. Ideally Amaro can get another RH bat to put in the No. 5 hole & put JRoll in the 6-hole.

Still like what JRoll can do offensively with some power and speed but he's been miscast as a leadoff hitter the past few years.

What I really don't want to see is this lineup:

Revere
JRoll
Utley
Howard
Young

If Amaro doesn't pick up another RH bat. To me, that's the worst lineup Cholly could use but one I easily could see him going with too because he wants a 'RH power bat' in the No 5 spot even if it means trying to put a square peg into a round hole.

RAJ couldn't have thrown in a couple of other RP like Jc Ramirez &/ Or Julio Rodriguez Instead of Bonilla?

Both trades that Raj. Made- looks like he overpaid for one young but offensively challenged CF &. An older young guy at 3rd base

Revere could have been had for just Worley...( although May wasn't that big a loss )--- I really question the need for Young -- and overpaying. For him. JCR & Julio R should have been sufficient ...( ok add josh l),,, but Bonilla - he very possibly could have been the 8th inning setup man of the future..

Now just wasting my breath , time , synapse, as the trade is done and there are no 'take overs'

Now breathe

If they do pick up Swisher, Truth Injection's lineup is good too. I wouldn't mind seeing Utley being moved up to the No 2 spot & breaking up Utley/Howard. Utley's struggles with LHP the last few years have made it increasingly easier to trot out a LOOGY to face him and Howard.

Just don't think they are going to sign him or a RH bat of Swisher's caliber.

MG: You act like Revere is an OBP machine. Jimmy Rollins is a better hitter than Revere, you want Jimmy getting more PA than him, period.

I understand that Jimmy isn't the best fit for leadoff, but putting in Revere isn't a solution to me.

now that greinke is a dodger, do any of the dodgers extraneous SPs interest you at all as trade candidates? what kind of package would it take to land an aaron harang or christopher f. capuano? theyre both due ~7mil in their 2nd years of two-year deals. what does that leave us with to sign a bullpen piece and some OF power?

i trust someone here can offer some strong opinions one way or another.

JC Ramirez is a non-prospect at this point. For the Rangers to have eaten so much of Young's salary, the Phils likely needed to include a legit prospect and Lindblom doesn't meet that description.

If the Phils had taken on half of Young's salary or even a bit more (say $10M), he likely would have required very little in return.

Always mystified at how baseball fans think that trades can be completed that are almost entirely one-sided.

lorecore - He's not but JRoll's OBP the last 4 years has been .316 which he matched dead on. He's basically a sub .320 guy which is lacking for a leadoff guy.

There's a chance that Revere doesn't crack .320 either next year but I like Revere's chances a hell of a lot more (even with very few BBs) to have a higher OBP than JRoll next year.

Personally I think Cholly is going to keep JRoll in the leadoff spot and put Young in the 2-hole with Revere in the 7th or 8th spot.

A lot of it depends though on what additional hitters Amaro acquires though.

"Always mystified at how baseball fans think that trades can be completed that are almost entirely one-sided."

From yesterday's Phuture Phillies thread (for real): "Mike Schwimer, Aaron Altherr, BJ Rosenberg, Tyler Greene, and cap it off with their choice Anthony Hewitt or Jiwan James–not both [for Giancarlo Stanton]. We are giving up a lot but what the heck…you have to pay for quality."

In fairness to the guy who posted it, I must assume that he was only trying to be funny. Fair assumption?

BAP- first off, you're not just speculating they're going to get Ross and a fringe SP like Dice-K- you're guessing that and using it to judge other moves before it's even happened. That's just stupid. Maybe have some patience for once and wait for everything to fall into place before deciding that 'they've gotten worse at 2 positions.'

Secondly, yeah I think Revere is better than Mayberry for this team as a full-time player. You and I disagree fundamentally on the trade, and that's fine. You think Revere is garbage except for the fact that he's young and cheap, and would rather have the horrible Mayberry, his inferior defense, and his zero-to-five SB ability in CF. Again, I'll just agree to disagree. You dislike 90-95% of MLB players. I can respect that.

We also disagree on Pence vs. Ross, though we agree that Ross isn't enough for the team if that's the route they choose. Ross will come cheaper than Pence, as you acknowledged, and I don't think there will be an enormous gap in their performance as you seem to think. I understand that Pence is one of the few people you think doesn't suck, but he isn't worth the money he'll be paid by the Giants this season, and he certainly isn't 4-5 million more than Ross. You go on to again assume that Amaro is only going to use that money for a SP that is worse than Worley- something that nobody knows for sure (and what's funniest about this is that you were comparing Worley to Matt Beech and other Phillies one year wonders last spring, but now are lamenting losing him and think he's irreplaceable).

You're making the same mistake that the small-attention span crew has done the whole offseason- assuming things are gonna happen and making judgments because you think you are clairvoyant- as a means to rip the FO before they've even completed forming the team through FA/trades. Just calm down for a few seconds and attempt to have some perspective- and maybe wait a few weeks and see exactly who they are going to pursue now that they have some extra money. I know it will be tough, but I believe in you.

cut_fastball has quickly become the most annoying poster on here. Where'd he come from?

The Young trade was the best bet with no good possible solutions. The money being tossed around for Youk was ridiculous, nevermind for two years. He has to be able to DH. Hannahan? Keppinger getting 3 years? I'll take a gamble on Young bouncing back next year on a one year commitment. I hate giving up Bonilla, but he could just as easily amount to nothing as he could become a #3 starter. It's part of the gamble. The other thing I like about Young is he can play 2B & 1B and hits lefties well, even last year. This could allow us to go with Frandsen and Young vs. some lefties and give either Utley or Howard a break.

I think Armaro has done a good job adding pieces. Now he needs that one big move. I'd hate to commit 4-5 years to Swisher, but he really makes a lot of sense in this lineup now.

"A lot of it depends though on what additional hitters Amaro acquires though."

MG- why are you willing to wait and see what happens? It's a lot easier to assume and guess what they're going to do so you can rip the decisions weeks and months ahead of time.

BAP: I asked because if I chose to offer an opinion I didn't want the parameters to continually move

Iceman - Now your schtick has shifted to criticizing me for a possible hypothetical of what I might do?

I haven't hated either one of the moves so far this offseason (Young/Revere) but I don't think they are enough either to give this team a very good (80% or higher) chance to make the playoffs again either.

Did I just see that the Rangers can possibly package a deal with Mike Olt to the Mets for R.A. Dickey? I know it most likely won't happen but they wouldn't trade him to us for Cliff Lee and now they are getting rid of him for effing R.A. Dickey. I don't know I'm just not convinced R.A. Dickey is going to be that good next year.

Iceman:

1. Obviously, nothing can be judged until the off-season is complete. But I'm not judging. I'm just telling you how I'll judge if it turns out a certain way. And, sure, I'm guessing -- but it's a guess based on following the media reports. RAJ himself said they were looking for a low-cost, high-upside pitcher.

2. I don't think Mayberry is better than Revere at all. I do wonder if Mayberry plus Worley is better than Revere plus this cheap, high-upside (translation: old, declining, and/or oft-injured) starter that RAJ has his sights set on.

3. We just disagree about Pence v. Ross. Pence has 10 points on him in career OPS+. I don't know if he's worth $13 or $14M, but that's neither here nor there unless the difference in salary between the 2 impairs our ability to improve elsewhere.

4. My point about Pence being better than Ross actually stands with or without Ben Revere. If you like the Worley for Revere trade, you could still have done it, whether Pence was here or not. The only difference is that you'd have a little less money to spend on Worley's replacement -- which may be immaterial since RAJ says he's going to go cheap on that replacement anyhow.

In other words, if the Revere move was about saving money so we can sign Cody Ross and a pitcher to replace Worley, that is not only a likely downgrade at 2 positions, but it's a downgrade that never had to happen if the Phillies had simply stood pat during the regular season.

This is my fear, as well. An OF of Ross/Revere/Brown ... it's insulting to even have to consider the possibility.


What I really don't want to see is this lineup:

Revere
JRoll
Utley
Howard
Young

If Amaro doesn't pick up another RH bat. To me, that's the worst lineup Cholly could use but one I easily could see him going with too because he wants a 'RH power bat' in the No 5 spot even if it means trying to put a square peg into a round hole.

I think Rollins/Revere/Utley/Howard/Young would be just as bad. Something like Rollins/Young/Utley/Howard/Ruf (or Chooch, once he returns, w/ Revere nearer the bottom of the lineup in both cases) is probably the best case for which one might realistically hope.

And if Rube makes a move for Hamilton does that mean that our chances of acquiring a good starter would be pretty slim? I like to think Hamilton is the route that Amaro is going but I think he is looking for a cheap bat for the outfield. I'll probably get shot for this but how much do you think Delmon Young is going for? Then we can sign Edwin Jackson and Mike Adams and call it a day.

Is there any doubt that, after Revere hits a walk-off bloop some night in May, cut_fastball will, regardless of Revere's statline, offer his typical movie-script-ending tribute to Revere's preternatural greatness -- complete with numerous gee whizzes and hard to believe harrys?

"Jr: Young posted an .838 OPS in Sept/Oct in 125 PAs.

Maybe he's not washed up."


clout, the interesting thing is that many here, myself included, have argued that Young is a creature of Texas Stadium and that his home/away splits are concerning.

I went back and took a look at his H/A splits in 2012, and this is what I found:

Home: .261/.312/.325, 1 HR, 28 RBI
Away: .291/.312/.411, 7 HR, 39 RBI

That's very unlike his career splits. Did his bad relationship with the FO affect his play at home because he ran into them in the stadium?

Also, I noticed that Young has the same agent as JRoll, so I wonder if Jimmy did a little recruiting on behalf of the team?

Bottom line, to me, is this: whether it's Cody Ross or someone else, Hunter Pence should be the standard by which RAJ's corner outfield acquisition should be judged. If we end up with someone worse than Pence, the difference in salary had better damn well go into finding a pitcher who is better than Worley. Unlike Vic, who was going to leave anyhow, the Phillies did not have to trade Pence. They did so because they believed they could find better uses for his would-be salary. If that turns out to be wrong, then you're left wondering: why on earth did a team which is in win-now mode trade him away?

MG- I was actually supporting your 'wait and see' approach and jabbing others who are assuming certain players will be signed and making judgments based on that.

I also agree with you about as much as clout says he does (~90%), but my 'schtick' is just giving you a hard time. And I agree with your opinion the Revere/Young signings (good complementary signings assuming they add other pieces).

Tyson Gillies. Great trade, r00b.

http://instagram.com/p/S_peUzna7g/

Tyson Gillies. Great trade, r00b.

http://instagram.com/p/S_peUzna7g/

"There’s nothing nonsensical about comparing Ben Revere to the very best CF in the game..."


cut, oh yes there is.

The fact that you cannot discern that lessens your credibility.

Actually, you CAN compare them, but it's not a FAIR comparison, and that's why it's nonsensical.

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