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Friday, December 07, 2012

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***The Rangers will likely pay more than $11 million of Young's $16 million salary for 2013.
***

Even better then, eh? We were thinking just $10 million.

For less than $5M for one year. If the cost isn't prohibitive (ie more than Lindblom and a non-prospect), then I am all for that deal happening.

As long as the return price remains just Lindblom, thats good news. Lets hope we dont save a few extra $M and lose Defratus.

While I'd prefer to see Swisher (we really could use someone with his plate discipline), if he proves too expensive I'd go after Ludwick before Ross--Ludwick has much better credentials as an everyday player (and a less punchable face, which I admit is a minor concern). I noticed that Cholly dropped his name in one of the last Winter Meeting interviews--he was probably just babbling, but I hope it was a Freudian slip.

For Lindblom and only a $5 million commitment, it's hard to say the Young move is a bad move.

Do I think he's likely to give them very good overall production at 3B? No, I don't. But there just aren't any other attracticve options out there.

Please no to both Cody Ross and Ichiro.

What possible purpose could Ichiro serve on this team? Another left-handed hitter, without any power or on-base ability, and whose defense and speed are rapidly declining?

Is there anyone who thinks that's a good idea?

Posted this at the end of last thread, wondering if anyone had any feedback. Sign Ichiro for cheap and spend the money on pitching, lineups look like:

vs. RHP / vs. LHP
Revere / Revere
Ichiro / Rollins
Utley / Utley
Howard / Howard
Chooch / Chooch
Rollins / Mayberry
Brown / Ruf
Young / Young
P / P

I should note that Ichiro still graded out pretty well defensively by UZR last season.

But I still fail to see how he's the right option for this team.

Jack: No on-base ability? Guy had a 81% SB success just last year, which isn't far off from other years.

No to Ichiro...its just a poor fit. Maybe if we didnt already have Nix & Brown in the mix for LH corner OFs.

No to Ichiro, we have enough part time players. We just acquired a pre arb CF, now lets spend some bucks for a starter.

Muurgh: I was referring to his .307 OBP...

My bad, Jack--should have been obvious.

I'd rather have Ibanez than Ichiro.

I don't like the dearth of info on kicking the tires of any real SP. Going into the season with Tyler Cloyd in the rotation pretty much circumvents any upgrades they've made to date.

What's the plan for all the money they've suddenly stumbled across?

***What's the plan for all the money they've suddenly stumbled across?***

Coke & hookers.

My own personal preference:

Hamilton
Swisher
Ludwick (then a huge drop-off to the next wave)
Ichiro
Ross (it pains me to even consider this)
Ibanez

"Coke & hookers."

So Hamilton actually WOULD be a fit, then...

All part of the master plan, Willard.

Why is any team interested in Dee Gordon? Never understand why teams are so fascinated in guys who are great athletes but have no actual baseball-related skills.

- He's fast but a lousy basestealer who even Lopes hasn't been able to help.

- He's terrible defensively at SS.

- He's a hacker who has poor pitch recognition skills and plate discipline.

Maybe you take him on as a semi-reclamation project in another year or two, hope you can move him to another position (maybe CF), and get some value out of him as a bench/part-time player.

Amaro should offer to ship the Dodgers a case of their choice of whatever local microbrew and a dozen roast pork sandwiches from John's Roast Pork express overnight. That's about the value Gordon would have to the Phils.

For whats its worth, Ross was loved in BOS. Seems like the kind of player that would fit this city and clubhouse

Young deal has gotten dumped on all over the place but if the price is $5M and Lindblom (marginal reliever) then I can see why Amaro made that deal.

Chavez is pretty much a scratch off ticket at $3M too given his injury and recent production.

Young is basically a $5M scratch off ticket but one worth potentially considering.

Still am baffled by the people who want a 'Frandsen/??? - Galvis/Mini Mart/Orr' combo at 3B. Minimal/no offense and likely below average to bad defense.

The one argue I see against it is that $5M could have used much more productively to fill the holes in the rotation, bullpen, and a corner OF bat. That's a legit one.

Seems like the talks on Soriano have gone cold but for I would really like him in LF if the price is right on what the Cubs will kick in on his $36M remaining. Figures I have seen rumored range from $10M (a lot less attractive) all the way to $20M.

Rather have Soriano at 2 yr/$16M than Ludwick at the same price? Absolutely.

If Ichiro, Ibanez, or Dee Gordon ends up with the Phillies, it will pretty much eliminate any remaining vestige of doubt about whether RAJ has even the vaguest clue what he's doing.

Galvis (for all his warts) has a hell a lot more value to the Phils than Gordon would.

Galvis is a good/elite defender at 2B/SS and I take that one legit baseball skill over Gordon's 'potential 4 tools/0 baseball skills' on the bench any day.

I'm surprised more here don't agree with the "play to your strength philosophy," which Rube seems to be following.

If your strength is pitching, you improve your defense, not your offense.

If Young says "no" does he become the next JD Drew for phils fans?

If young says no, he becomes a hero in my eyes. I don't want him

Clout: Runs are runs are runs. It's a false choice to imply improving in one area makes sense more than another area.

How would Michael Young and Raul Ibanez improve the defense?

I don't see how Young says no (though I also don't see why it's taking so damn long, either).

The Rangers are essentially paying him to go away and he's considering staying?

I don't love him there (would have preferred Youk), but I'm resigned to the fact that he's likely our next 3B. I honestly can't remember the last 3B we had that I cared for though (to be fair, I didn't fall out of love with Polly until last season).

More I hear about this offseason and the more I have liked what Amaro has approached it so far.

I thought he was going to make a crazy offer to Upton or Bourn. Didn't turn out that way. He was quite pragrammatic and systematic actually on how he approached CF. Made reasonable deals to Upton and Pagan. Then went looking via the trade market at Fowler, Ellsbury, and eventually settled on Revere.

Nationally the deal got criticized it seemed 'because of the high price the Phils paid' but I wasn't sad to see May go in the least. For a guy who is supposed to be a power pitcher, he only topped out about 95 last year on the Reading gun (which is always hot) and probably was more routinely in the 91-92 MPH range.

Also throws his fastball straight as an arrow and tends to like it high in the zone. Overpower guys in the lower minor league but even enough AA hitters can handle low 90s fastballs up in the zone.

Got a nice curve and really little else right. Really a two-pitch pitcher who needs to improve his variation his 2-seem fastball and add another offspeed pitch if he wants to make it at the MLB level. Seems like a guy who will be a reliever with a 4-seam fastball/curve who could be a potential backend piece.

Even the potential Young deal which has gotten a lot of criticism makes some sense if they are just paying Young $5M and giving up Lindblom. Roll of the dice that if he even gives the Phils a .750 OPS without horrendous defense, the Phils did fine on that deal.

The big question though is how Amaro handles the rest of the offseason. Revere/Young aren't enough in my view to push this team back into a very solid playoff contender. Need to acquire 1-2 pieces which they have have the cash to do.

I'd like to think that Amaro is biding his time with starting pitching, and will snag whichever one of the Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum, Sanchez tier is left without a home in February on a rebuild-value 1-year deal. This market is heavy with #2-#3 starters, and I think a wait-and-see approach is really smart.

Then I hear that the Phillies are interested in Raul Ibanez and it casts doubt in my mind about Amaro's ability to do something shrewd.

How can anyone not think Young is a better alternative to ANY internal option?

Jack - why? I don't have any reason to believe either way but I haven't seen anything suggesting decisions can't complement one another and that a good defender could have a compounding effect on Lee's run prevention and a greater effect overall. What I mean is that, once you've established some great run prevention types, it may be easier, cheaper, more efficient to prevent more runs than gain the same overall advantage by adding runs scored.

If Frandsen was really good or even solid defensively at 3B, I could see the merit too in just going with him as the default starter there and using the $5M instead on a starting pitcher & an RH OF bat.

Frandsen isn't good though defensively at 3B. Cholly clearly doesn't think much of his defensive skills and I agree. Weak arm, doesn't charge balls particularly well, and is that assertive in the field which have to be at 3B given how quick balls on you as a fielder.

Agree with BAP on that list and I will add Ross too. Want no part of him on a 3-yr deal that is pushing double figures annually or close to it. Even 2 yr/$18-20M would be a lot for a guy who really isn't a power hitter or consistent contributor in the offense.

I can't say NO loud enough on Ichiro, Ibanez, or Ross.

For me, shoot for Hamilton, Swisher, or Ludwick. If none of those accept, then roll w/ the current OFs and plow the remaining budget (~$20M?) into #4 SP and BP.

It does seem that RAJ has been careful and shrewd so far, and his waiting game approach just may payoff. Jury's still out though.

If young says no, he becomes a hero in my eyes. I don't want him

Amen.

DH Phils: "I'd like to think that Amaro is biding his time with starting pitching, and will snag whichever one of the Jackson, McCarthy, Marcum, Sanchez tier is left without a home in February on a rebuild-value 1-year deal. This market is heavy with #2-#3 starters, and I think a wait-and-see approach is really smart."

Very good post, I agree 100%.

Sophist: I think it would have to be even more specific than that to actually make any difference. For instance, if you had all really strong GB pitchers, then it would make sense to prioritize infield defense over outfield defense. But as to defense vs. offense? Not sure it matters.

Good defenders can be expected to save the runs, regardless of who is pitching in front of them. If you count the runs saved by the defender to both the defense and the pitcher, aren't you just double-counting the same runs?

This is the reason why advanced stats attribute runs saved to pitchers to things within their control--K, BB, GB, HRs, etc., normalized to a league-average BABIP. And then you attribute the runs saved beyond that to the defense. If you attributed them to both you'd be double-counting.

I did not want Michael Young here last season - especially at 2 yrs and his full salary.

If they can get one year of Michael Young at 3B, and he can occasionally spell Howard against tought LHP (with Frandsen at 3B?) then IMHO it's worth the risk.

I still think the will miss the Vanimal. I'll stick my neck out and say I don't think the "healthy" Vanimal we saw the last 2 seasons (3.00 - 3.50 ERA) was a fluke. That 2-seamer may make him the best #4 in MLB.

(my 2 cents)

Yo, new thread!

Viciedo might be available, according to MLBTR:
"The White Sox, who are seeking a left-handed bat, would have wanted prospects from Seattle in a deal for Viciedo."

RH that hit 25 HRs last year. (Apparently has played a little 3B, though I have no idea how well.)

So Dom + minor pitcher for Viciedo?

nok: But can he play RF? If he is just a LFer, how is he any different than Ruf?

He played 21 games in RF in 2011, but again, I have no idea on the quality of his defense.

Just heard Ludwig re-signed with Reds

sophist: "Jack - why? I don't have any reason to believe either way but I haven't seen anything suggesting decisions can't complement one another and that a good defender could have a compounding effect on Lee's run prevention and a greater effect overall. What I mean is that, once you've established some great run prevention types, it may be easier, cheaper, more efficient to prevent more runs than gain the same overall advantage by adding runs scored."

Exactly so. At some point you reach a tipping point in run prevention. If your pitching is already good, it's easier to reach that tipping point by adding defense than to try to reach a balanced or offensive run tipping point by adding offense, no?

Wow what is with the Frandsen sucks at 3B thing happening all a sudden?

I watched the majority of the games last season and he made alot of nice plays.

People are talking like he was playing with a glove on his foot. Which is kind of funny because the last 2 months of the season he was literally playing with a broken foot I believe.

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