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Friday, December 07, 2012


ouch, gtown saved by the bell.

Swisher/Starter/Setup could be had for $25M i think. But since its not my money, lets throw it all at Hamilton and go nuts.

I wonder how determined the FO is to hold onto their 1st rd draft pick.

Last thread, nokwurst: "My biggest concern now is: Youk signs elsewhere, then Young vetoes the trade. Then Phils are stuck w/ who? Reynolds, or I guess maybe Hannahan? Ugh."

Yeah. Pretty much 100% my thinking. Rube is really taking a gamble that Young waives his no-trade.

I think the ideal allocation here would be Swisher-Dempster-Lindstrom.

lorecore: Typical Beerleaguer. Make statement (A) & somehow all of a sudden you're in a debate about uncontested subject (B). I should have known better.

Iceman - I don't think the Phils actually have interest in Youk for 1/12 or 2/18, so the timing doesn't matter.

Screw it. If Hamilton is taking 3 year offers from Seattle, throw him a 4th year to come to Philly. And go after Dempster. I don't think we're going to see any bullpen moves, anyway ... or at least not "name" moves. Prob. more bargain basement stuff.

gtown: no, people just disagreed with your opinion, and showed you why they do - thats all.

Iceman: I also like Lindstrom a bunch.

nokwurst: Obviously defense isn't a priority at 3B fi they are dealing for Young, so I don't see why Reynolds wouldn't be brought in if the trade didn't happen.

People who have done the calculations (NEPP...)--where would Swisher and Edwin Jackson put us in terms of salary?

Assuming you need 4/55 for Swisher, and, say, 3/33 for Edwin Jackson.

Swisher / Jackson would be a solid offseason.

I have no idea what Jackson will command. 3/33 is probably low in this market, but I don't know.

Sophist: If it's doable, that's where I would go right now (Swisher and Jackson). But I also care far less about getting an established 8th inning guy than most people.

To me, it would be a waste to spend the flexibility we just got on a big deal for Mike Adams. Given that, I'm sure that's Amaro's next move.

lorecore: No, people began spouting off about how Swisher was a better player than Ross, which I did not dispute.

Really good breakdown in Corey's article, by the way. He almost made me feel positive about the Phillies for a minute there. Almost.

Has anyone mentioned that Swisher's home/road splits are pretty even?

I don't really get all the Ryan Dempster love. Yes, he had a nice 2012 season, but he'll turn 36 shortly after opening day and he has already turned down a 2-year, $26M offer from the Royals; he's insisting on 3 years. A 3-year deal for a 36-year old pitcher? There's just no way that can be a good idea.

***People who have done the calculations (NEPP...)--where would Swisher and Edwin Jackson put us in terms of salary?

Assuming you need 4/55 for Swisher, and, say, 3/33 for Edwin Jackson

If those were the final number AND Young says yes to Philly, we'd be around right around the luxury tax or slightly over. It puts us around $170 million before benefits/40 man costs roughly to add those 3 salaries (Young, Swish and Jackson at those AAVs)

$25 Million for 4 spots. We need a SP, Set-up, RF, and 3rd. Presumably, Young accepts. So $19 million for SP, Set-up, and RF. Good Luck in this market, Rube.

My wife spotted Raul Ibanez in a local Starbucks this morning, giving legs to that rumor. Get ready for a Ruf/Ibanez platoon in left and a Brown/Mayberry platoon in right.

The $25 million estimate is assuming Young said yes and we're paying him $6 million already.

Jack - I wouldn't pay a premium, if that's what is required, for a set up guy. But I do think the Phils should add someone. I think they dropped at 10-15 leads in the 8th last year that they didn't end up salvaging (coming back and winning).

Does anyone know if team options or buyouts are added to the AAV for luxury tax purposes?
So if they offered Hamilton 3 years $60 Mil with a team option for $40 mil for a 4th year with a $15 Mil buyout. The AAV is $20 mil and the palyer is still guaranteed $75 mil, with the potential to get 4 years $100 mil.
I don't know where to go to see how it works and if that is feasible or not.
Does anyone know?

Stutes made 485k last year. I'd assume he'd get more than a 5k next year....

Between Jackson, McCarthy, and Marcum, figure the Phils can get someone at a reasonable price if they want to.

Sophist: Do you agree that you would prioritize a corner OF bat and a starting pitcher ahead of the set up guy?

I guess it's all relative, though. If there are no good value options at the other positions, but Adams has a really low price for some reason, then yeah, I would be fine with it. So I'm guessing we feel the same way.

I'd prefer getting Young for half his salary or less, then signing a middle reliever/setup man for 3-4 million a year. The outfield right now is Revere, Brown, Mayberry, and Nix. Do you need a corner OF bat here? Yes, especially a righty. Best choices are Swisher/Ross. But you'd need to commit substantial money to both.

I'd prefer Ross, because he's healthier, cheaper, and can play all OF positions if necessary. Thing is, signing an OF means we still have a void in the rotation, and it hampers the development of Brown and Ruf.

If they get Young, I think they should focus on the bullpen and a veteran starter, instead of signing an OF bat. A lineup of Rollins/Revere/Utley/Howard/Ruiz/Young/Brown/Nix-Mayberry /Pitcher is a pretty good one, I think. Assumes everyone's healthy, but that's true for every lineup. You take Ruth and Gehrig out of the 27 Yankees lineup and suddenly they don't look so scary.

BAP- Dempster has been remarkably consistent with the exception of one off year for the last six years. He's shown no real signs of slowing down in his peripherals and posted a 174 ERA+ in the NL last year. They could do a lot worse than giving a player like that a 3-year deal (like, say, Cody Ross).

If he'd shown signs of deterioration I would sympathize with your concerns a bit more, but that isn't the case.

For example, Ryan Howard will earn a $20 million salary in 2012. But he counts for $25 million against the luxury tax because the AAV of his deal includes the $10 million buyout for a 2017 option. AAV accounts for all guaranteed money in a contract; Howard is guaranteed that $10 million whether the option is exercised or not. Thus, the $25 million figure.

Lorecore- good point that defense at 3B is apparently not relevant to RAJ.

So therefore, yeah we'd prob go w/ Reynolds, which a 1 yr deal would be ok by me. Good b/c it would give RH power, bad b/c half of all Phils ABs would then end in HR or K.

I'm not a huge Shaun Marcum fan. Little bit too much of a flyball pitcher for me to trust him in Philly.

That said, he's certainly better than our current 4/5 starters.

Jack - I agree with you in the sense that I wouldn't let a premium payment for a name set-up guy preclude me from spending on a reliable SP. I'd rather pay less and take some "risk" on a non-Adams than forgo an SP addition.

But it's situation specific.

***Does anyone know if team options or buyouts are added to the AAV for luxury tax purposes?***

Buyouts are added but they dont count as an extra year as far as I understand. Howard supposedly has an AAV of $25 M while he he's making $23 million on average for his contract with a $10 M buyout for 2017 making it a 5 year/125M contract despite that $10 M being paid out after the contract is over.

On Stutes, he'll get close enough to $500K that it wont matter when you factor in the other pre-arb players.

I would be more than happy with Jackson or Marcum too, btw. I would just prefer Dempster. Any of the three would be good choices.

Also, GTown said in the last thread that Swisher isn't good enough to command three times the salary of Ross. Now obviously he isn't going to get 3x his salary, but I bet he gets 2x, and for his consistency and overall better peformance, I think he is definitely worth that. A player like Swisher is a lot harder to find than a guy like Ross.

Assuming you need 4/55 for Swisher, and, say, 3/33 for Edwin Jackson.

Victorino is getting $13 million per year. I'm thinking Swisher will be wanting, & receiving, several million dollars more annually.

Yeah, NEPP, you add the non-options years' salary, the guaranteed money, and then divide by the number of guaranteed years. So Howard has 5 guaranteed years and $125M g. salary (115 til 2016 with 2017 buyout).

Vic is only getting $13M/yr because he took a 3-year deal. Swisher will probably get $15M/yr.

Also, the salaries for players 26-40 counts against the luxury tax i think. It's prob not a lot (~$3 M?), but should be considered.

Reading the posts here, I'm into the Swisher idea. Spend the rest on McCarthy/Reliever. But at this point, I honestly wouldn't mind if Hamilton was signed.

Just not into Ross. Would rather gamble with Brown and RuField with a NixBerry backup while spending on pitching depth and trumping the current offers for Youk. And heck, sign Ichiro as another lefty OF bat. Um, but really I'd rather not have this happen.

Looks like Sophist beat me to it...

All that said, we're probably closer to $22 million available, not $25...FWIW. Going over it again, we're at $144.75 estimated right now. If we add Young, that takes us to $150.25 leaving us with around $20 million under the cap.

So if Swisher got $15 million AAV, we probably can't afford him and another starter unless that starter is bargain basement.

What has Ross been asking for? I can see the Phils cheaping out on him rather that signing Swisher, especially if Swisher wants a 4 year deal (assumes Ross takes 3 years - not really sure what he's been asking).

2 of the 3 needs of corner outfield, starting pitcher, and bullpen help will be found in the bargain bin. The 19 million that is left if Young is traded is really probably more like 15ish million dollars (bonuses, wiggle room for trades midseason). 15 million won't get you someone like Jackson, Marcum, or Dempster AND corner outfield power, considering the current market.

I heard Lindblom was the guy texas wants (think on MLB network). Wouldn't Horst be in the pen? If Lindblom is the guy....

De Fratus

I challenge one assumption--that the Phillies can't break the luxury tax threshold. Amaro said that they may. Halladay and Utley are coming off the books in 2013, which gives them flexibility. If they start the season over the threshold, then the team bombs, they can dump salary to avoid any penalty.

Bastardo is arb eligible. MLBTR estimates 1.1 million for him (1st time ARB).

If they're going to break the threshold, may as well spend up to 189M -- the threshold for 2014. They're not acting like a team interested in spending that much, so I'd be surprised if they're going to go into 2013 (as opposed to making additions in the season) over the threshold.

Rollins AAV is $9.5 M, not $11 M for whatever there's $1.5 M right there.

If the Phillies are willing to go a bit over the cap, this is all a moot point. Between Doc & Utley and the rise in the overall cap, the Phillies will have $43 Million to play with next off-season if they stayed at the cap this year.

I'm pretty sure Ibanez still lives here, so seeing him today may not mean anything.

NEPP - I think Rollins' contract is worded in a way that his $5M player option is considered the 4th year (a boon to MG). So it's 3/38 even though he has $11M vesting option, $8M club, $5M player.

Assuming Young accepts and the Phils are around $25-$20M left to spend, I'd vote they put most of it into a solid starter: EJackson, Marcum, Dempster, take your pick.

Someone made the good point that we need to keep Pettitbone & Cloyd as the 6th & 7th starters, so signing a 4th/5th starter is now the priority. Plus it helps to compensate for Young's defense at 3B.

Depending on the starter signed, if there's any left, maybe pick up a SU guy if not too costly, or else just reserve for mid-season trade.

NEPP, where did you see that about Rollins? 3/33 is what COTs (B-R) has listed as his contract.

I just broke out the calculator on the piece. I am coming up with a $144.83 for 21 players listed in the article. Swap Horst for Lindblom. If Young accepts, I would assume that Glavis will go to AAA rather than sit on the bench behind Frandsen.

Im with Muuurgh. Swisher and McCarthy makes this a VERY good off-season. Adding Lindstrom or someone similar is just icing.

Thanks NEPP and Sophist.
I couldn't find that info anywhere.

Also, Matt downs as the utility INF would be nice. Not a great player, but much better than Orr, Minimart, etc.

Better than Mini Mart!

why not go big on anibal sanchez?

***where did you see that about Rollins? 3/33 is what COTs (B-R) has listed as his contract.

Its in the article Sophist linked in the fine print.

"If they're going to break the threshold, may as well spend up to 189M -- the threshold for 2014."

Not sure about that. Utley, Chooch, Halladay & Kendrick are all in their walk years and, with salaries going up, I doubt very seriously that their ~$45M in combined salaries could buy you the equivalent of Utley, Chooch, Halladay & Kendrick on the 2014 FA market. The Phillies would do well to leave themselves some wiggle room.

b_a_p: Depends upon which vintage of Utley, Chooch, Halladay & Kendrick one is willing to settle for. But assuming we're talking about healthy, productive, PED-free players, you're probably correct.

Thanks NEPP. I added that to my COTS spreadsheet. I still come out with ~$15 million left to spend assuming we get Young for $6 Million, $3 Million for players 26-40, and $10 Million for benefits. $15 million will not get you a SP, set-up, and RF.

I would much rather have $21 million and go with Frandsen/Galvis at 3rd.

The $20 million "saved" on Doc wont get us another #1 starter but that's okay because Hamels is the #1 starter. It'll probably get us a 2/3 starter to replace him though. Just like $12 million AAV saved from Utley wont get us the best 2B of the last 20 years but it will likely replace the level of production we're getting from Utley in 2013....and so on and so forth.

I'd imagine KK's $3.5 M AAV will be non-tendered too rather than paying him $7-8 million in Arbitration. Nix is gone as is Chooch.

They'll have some money to play with next off-season.

GTown: To be fair, you said "The more I look at the numbers, the more I wonder why people think so much of Swisher, & so little of Ross."

When several posters began pointing out why that is so (mainly because Swisher is way better), you began debating the point. When Fatalotti laid out the stats that made it obvious, you responded "I'm not sold."

And now you're whining about being misundertood, as if that isn't your own fault.

bap: and if chooch, doc, utley, and kk are only "worth" $45M in 2013 performance - we are screwed no matter what we do.

Salisbury must be happy as a school boy that Young could be coming to Philly. He's been writing about the Phillies trading for him for years.

I googled "Young's charities in Texas" and found that he was a finalist for the Marvin Miller Man of the Year Award in 2011 and won the award in 2008. This award saluted the Michael Young Foundation If there was any doubt about how he'd fit in the clubhouse- asked and answered :)

clout: I was wrong about Swisher's splits, for which I promptly mea culpa-ed. Beyond that your characterization of the discussion is typically, & intentionally, false.

In any case I feel no need to rehash any of it, at least not until the players involved are signed.

How many "IFs" are we up to now for 2013?

IF Halladay returns to form.
IF Howard returns to form.
IF Utley can play a full year.
IF Chooch remains productive and clean.
IF the young bullpen arms develop.
IF Brown/Ruf/Nix/Mayberry give us something at a corner spot.

IF Michael Young approves AND bounces back being a productive hitter.

lorecore: Exactly. I'm obviously talking about the collective versions of those players that enabled us to be a Division-winning team in past years. I have no doubt that we could take Halladay & Utley's combined $35M salaries & find suitable replacements for the 2012 versions of those players. But, if we aspire to contend for a division title, our mindset has to be that we're replacing the good versions of Halladay & Utley.

NEPP - If all those IFs pan out the Phils win 100 games. They don't need to win 100 games.

If it's taking Young this long to decide if he wants to come here, do we really want him?

2014 looks bleak right now. Needs:

3 SP

Already have about $100 M committed to 5 players.


Donc- Young's roots are deep in Texas, and he values his family enough to give it due consideration. WE'RE impatient w/ HIM. His timetable is whatever he wants it to be

Someone asked me in the last thread what I thought of the Revere trade.

If I was a WAR lover, like Fatalotti, I'd say it was a great trade.

If I was an OPS+ lover, like Jack, I'd say we gave up too much.

My take: Worley projects as a #4 or #5 at best. That has value, but not as much value as an everyday CF, even one with a terrible arm. He'll be a better fielder than Pierre, but worse on offense, IMHO. Otherwise, that's his comp.

On May, I'm not as down on him as some. He appears to be a slow learner. He had to repeat Lakewood to get it right and then he had to repeat Clearwater. Obviously, this season he has to repeat Reading. He's just 23 and if form holds, he'll have to repeat LV in 2014 and 2015 (or maybe half of 2013 and 2014 if he gets promoted at mid-season.)

That puts him in an MLB rotation at age 25 and he's got #2 stuff. If that happens that would tip the scale to the Twins. Of course, May could also tear his labrum and rip his ulnar collateral ligament.

***If all those IFs pan out the Phils win 100 games. They don't need to win 100 games. ***

I agree. The margin is huge for 2013. I could see them winning 70 games, I could see them winning 100...and anywhere in between.

I could not see them winning only 70 games unless Howard and Utley don't show up. I really don't think thats going to happen.

May might have the potential for #2 stuff but he sure as hell doesnt have it right now.

On CSN, FWIW, Salisbury says he's "getting the vibe" that the Young deal will happen.

GTown: Go back and look at the thread. Your words are what I wrote and the discussion there is precisely as I described it. If you'd like, I'll reprint here in its entirety.

Agree with Ryan on the Raul sighting/rumor. His family never left the Wayne area development they lived in while he was a Phillie, so he's probably been back since the playoffs ended.

Throw some love at Kyle Lohse? Can we afford him? Thoughts?

noname: BAP has assured that if the team contends in 2013 it will certainly contend in 2014. Your facts to the contrary.

70 games would probably be better than 80 games. Massive salary dumps/farm refuels, tons of MLB seasoning for near-ready prospects, and a juicy draft pick. But it won't happen. I think that if Utley can play 115 games, Howard and Rollins can play 130 games, Doc can pitch 200 Doc-ish innings, and Chooch can play 100 games and mildly regress without cratering, we could get a WC even without any more moves. The team really was pretty snakebit last year by injuries and in-game luck..

GTown wrote: "(Swisher)has four years of playing in New Yankee Smallpark to inflate his power numbers. I'm not sold."


One thing on this GTown that I pointed out yesterday:

Before New York, Swisher played in Oakland. His slash line there was: .251/.361/.464/.825 with a 118 OPS+. He averaged 26 home runs a year and 82 RBI.

In New York his slash line was: .268/.367/.483/.850 with a 124 OPS+ for 26 home runs a year and 87 RBI.

Not a huge world of difference

oogie: my point being, will his heart be in it when he gets here? I can handle the waiting (though it doesn't help the Phillies any). Here is a guy conceivably wrapping up his career in a place he may not want to be. And after a very poor year that may or may not signal the beginning of the end. That could turn out badly.

clout, Revere is a better SB threat than Pierre was at the same age. Pierre might have stolen a bunch of bags but he wasn't efficient at all.

Through Age 24 SB%

Revere: 79.56%
Pierre: 74.07%

That's a pretty big gap.

"If's" aside, this team has the talent and ability to win 85-90 games which is all that is needed. Sadly, I think many of us may have to concede the division to the Nats before the first Opening Day pitch is thrown, but that 2nd wild card is huge. Rube has the luxury of having to do "just enough" to contend, and will likely position himself to be able to make a mid-season move as well (which will be interesting considering the caliber of rental players he'll be able to offer up...).

At any rate, our long national nightmare about this team being too old is about to correct itself in the next year or so. Rube has already started doing that with his current 40 man OF averaging 25.7 yrs old. BTW, totally irrelevant, but interesting that lists Ruf as an Infielder.

clout: Go right on ahead. It would be a refreshing change from the carefully selected quotes you use to deliberately mischaracterize discussions.

Truth - Just look at his Away splits in NY. His OPS was pretty much identical to his Home OPS with the same breakdown. He hit the same number of Home and Road HR (38). You don't even need to compare OAK and NY.

All teams have more or less the same amount of IFs. I'd say we're probably average in that regard.

I like Marcum better than Jackson, despite the flyballs.

TTI: You are correct, & I conceded that point in the prior thread.

Outside of driving a dumptruck of money to Robinson Cano's house, Utley is best 2B available via FA in 2014.


NEPP, I will rent the van and drive it to Cano myself if Monty stuffs it with cash.

If Blanton got $7 M per, how much does Shaun Marcum, a far superior pitcher, receive?

Utley will hit .290/.370/.450 in 130 games and the Phils will extend him.

Utley will hit .290/.370/.450 in 130 games and the Phils will extend him.

Posted by: Sophist | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 12:48 PM

wow optimism alert. We make the playoffs if Utley does that.

"Utley will hit .290/.370/.450 in 130 games and the Phils will extend him."

Damn Straight.

GTown: Your wish is my command:

The more I look at the numbers, the more I wonder why people think so much of Swisher, & so little of Ross. To be clear, I don't want either one of 'em. But there's no way the former is worth 3X or more in salary than latter.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:45 AM

GTown, other than the fact that Swisher has a career 118 OPS+ to Ross's 107, and Swisher has a career .361 OBP to Ross's .326, and Swisher has a career .211 ISO to Ross's .198...they're the exact same player.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:49 AM

gtown: "The more I look at the numbers, the more I wonder why people think so much of Swisher, & so little of Ross"

Really? I think you should re-look.

Ross career OPS+: 107
Ross last 3 year OPS+: 105

Swisher career OPS+: 118
Swisher last 3 year OPS+: 125

Posted by: lorecore | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Fatalotti: Swisher also strikes out a lot, & has four years of playing in New Yankee Smallpark to inflate his power numbers. I'm not sold.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I don't think the Phils have any interest in Youk at the price anyway. They'd have to either outbid the Yanks (1/12) or the Indians (2/18). It would take 2/20 to get him and that's if he even wants to play in the NL.

Fata - Yeah, Swisher is way, way better than Ross. On top of the production differences you cited, Swisher has actually played 150 games a year every year.

Posted by: Sophist | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:54 AM

And let me be clear, I am NOT arguing that Ross & Swisher are equals. Swisher has been & presumably would be somewhat better than Ross. I simply don't think Swisher is so much better as to justify the huge difference in dollars or years he is likely to command.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Over the last 3 years Swisher has 38 HR at Home and 38 on the Road. What's the line from The Fugitive? "Do you want to change you bullshit story, sir?"

Posted by: Sophist | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Swisher is a significantly better baseball player than Cody Ross. It's not really close.

Posted by: Jack | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I'll concede the splits for Swisher. My mistake. But I still don't want either one, & there's no way Swisher is worth as much as he's likely to get (which -- to remind you slow-witted types again -- was my original point). Contract history suggests he will command at least 3X the money, & probably a year or two more in the length of the deal, than Ross.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 11:09 AM

G-Town: you let emotion trump reason with Swisher and got called out for it. It's not a big deal, everyone's done it. Just admit it and move on.

Nevermind, I had that typed up before clout drove the stake farther into the ground.

Oh my Christ, clout. Gtown, a genuine gem of this blog, got lazy on Swisher's home/away splits. About a dozen people corrected him. He said he was wrong. Who gives a sh*t? Let's drop it.

Jack (re: set-up man): a guy like Lindstrom wouldn't cost more than 2.5 million or so. Do you think that's an investment worth making?

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