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Sunday, December 02, 2012

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phillies trying to make a great 2005 team

I wouldn't oppose a minor league offer with an invite to ST

Minor league contract only. Got to be something wrong with this guy.

Luis Castillo was invited to ST too.

MiL deal or split contract. That's it.

He hasn't earned anything else the last 3 years, and he'd have as good a chance in Philly of making the roster as anywhere.

How is his d? Would he be an upgrade over Galvis?

Minor league deal at best. No biggie. Saw that Atchinson was non-tendered by the Red Sox too. Wouldn't mind seeing the Phils trying to sign him to a minor league deal and let him try to win a last roster spot in the spring.

Signing him would be taking a page out of the Cardinals' book-singing a veteran looking to resurrect a career for one year.

It's worth an incentive laden shot.

No No No to Figgins. Why not keep Poly who was still a great glove. Ridiculous!!!

If Polly could stay healthy then it would of made sense even in his offensive decline. I wonder whats wrong with this dude. How can you go from .330 to .198. Is a mental thing does he have a splinter on his toe. Did he just say F it i got the money I'll just cruise from here on out.

MG (from the last thread): "People complain about Mayberry's limited abilities but Nix is much more limited than Mayberry."

This is kind of a 'who is the taller midget' argument. They both stink. The only difference is there are people who exist that think Mayberry is more than a very limited PT player, whereas everyone agrees that Nix is awful.

Olney had a string of tweets on Schierholtz talking about how like 7 teams are in on him and GMs are 'shocked' that he's a FA. What exactly are they shocked about? He's a fourth OF that doesn't do anything especially well. At least Nix can turn on a fastball every now and then and go into some pretty hot streaks when he's playing consistently. Having Schierholtz on the roster would have been a waste of space.

No on Figgins, btw.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

If we can get him cheap he might be an ok pickup...Remember how Beltre was terrible on the Mariners and is now a top 5 3rd baseman. Not saying Figgins is Beltre, but it's worth a look

Iceman - Not true about Schierholtz. He's useful as a bench player and more so than Nix.

Given the Phils OF though, it didn't make sense for Amaro to have to pay him $2 or $2.5M though next year.

Beltre

99-03: 99 OPS+ (LA)
2004: 163 OPS+
05-09: 101 OPS+ (SEA)
10-12: 137 OPS+ (BOS/TX)

Beltre wasn't that much different in Seattle than he was in most of his career in LA. He just had a career year and was entering his "prime" so it was reasonable to think he'd get better. He did just took him 5 years.

Comparing signing Figgins to the Cards signing Beltran and Berkman makes no sense too. Signing Figgins is akin to the Phils inviting Castillo to ST a few years ago.

Apparently Ichiro reached out to the Phils (Heyman).

Breaking news philles looking into free agents

NO to Chone Figgins. NO WAY!

MG:

Nix last 3 years: 660 PA, .260/.316/.444/.761, 23 HR, 105 OPS+

Schierholtz last 3 years: 883 PA, .262/.320/.405/.725, 18 HR, 103 OPS+

Explain to me how Schierholtz is 'a better player off the bench' than Nix. Neither can run well. Schierholtz is better defensively, but Nix has more power (5 more HR in 223 less PA, ~40 point difference in OPS). There is virtually no difference between these two players, except that Nix is more likely to pop a HR if you need one.

Either way the difference between these two pedestrian players is not $1-1.5 million which is how much more Schierholtz would be making this year if Amaro was dumb enough to go to arb with him.

I like reclamation projects & I really liked Chone Figgins when he was in his prime. But I am having enormous difficulty convincing myself that he is a realistic bounce-back candidate.

bap, we all agree, which is why a MiL is th eonly thing that makes sense.

Besides, he's making $8MM in 2013 whether he plays or not.

He'll probably sign where he feels he has the best chance to make a roster,and Philly offers him as good a chance as any.

Iceman - Schierholtz doesn't have the extreme split differences (Nix is useless vs LHP) and is a much better defensive player and PH option.

Nix' flukey 180 PA in 2010 aside, Schierholtz is a better overall player. But Phils were already committed to Nix.

MG- this is ridiculous. Defense aside, there is nothing Schierholtz is 'much better' at than Nix. Nix is the bigger power threat. Big whoop. They both stink.

The point is that he isnt worth the money they'd have to pay him in 2012 with Nix already under contract, and teams licking their chops over him being on the market is laughable.

I guess Figgins on a MiL contract would be fine, a la Castillo, if only because the possibility of Frandsen/Galvis at 3rd is so horrifying that every other possibility should be explored, including petitioning Selig to allow a DF (Designated Fielder) so we can put Galvis out there to field, and sign Youk to hit.

Either way, they should be pursuing Youk.

Schierholtz can actually hit LHP. Nix can't. This doesn't really matter though. Phils success doesn't hinge on it.


Either way, they should be pursuing Youk.

Posted by: Iceman | Sunday, December 02, 2012 at 06:36 PM


The White Sox and Phillies are the two most aggressive teams in pursuit of a third baseman, a source tells Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. Kevin Youkilis is the object of both team's pursuit.

Atlantic League teams shouldn't even check in on Figgins. He's a bum.

It feels like the mid 1990s debating which mediocre free agent the phillies should sign

The Phils just need to stay away from older non-difference makers like Ichiro clogging up productivity at the corners. They spun their tires there last year. Even a guy like Pagan for CF ... I have some reservations there, too. There's no ceiling.

So, if we wind up with Youk and Pagan (both signings I'd probably approve of), do we have enough money left for a bullpen piece and a corner outfielder? I highly doubt it, which means we'll probably have to sink or swim with Aumont/Rosenberg/Horst/Bastardo/Schwimmer (and maybe Cloyd as long man?) in the BP and Nix/Mayberry/Ruf/Brown on the corners.

I don't seem the harm of offering Figgins a minor league contract. He was really unhappy in Seattle, even though he greatly disappointed them, maybe a change of scenery will help him. If it doesn't, no harm on a minor league deal. This has to be an attractive spot for him to gamble on himself with a minor league deal. The 3B job is wide open. I like his versatility too.

I like Youk a lot, but you are lucky to get 100-120 games out of him. He's just too broken down.

The more I look at it, I'd go all in with a trade for Dexter Fowler. He's under team control till 2016. Last year he had great numbers. The gamble is last year was his breakout year and he'll stay at that level. If he does, he's worth trading for rather than overpaying for a free agent.

Then I'd sign Sean Burnett to solidify the bullpen, sign Ichiro and Mark Reynolds for power since now we have some on base guys with speed with Ichiro and Fowler.

The best part is that should leave enough money to go for an impact player at the deadline.

Burnett doesn't really get RHB out.

They have Josh Fields at AAA, rather him get a shot over Figgins.

Warming to Soriano, Vic, Youk idea.

I'm also becoming strangely BAPish on Ruf.

And Affeldt got 3/18. Burnett will get at least that much.

"The Phils just need to stay away from older non-difference makers like Ichiro clogging up productivity at the corners."

I'm actually miffed at how many posters want us to sign Ichiro. I mean, the guy is an icon who is headed to the Hall of Fame. But he's 39 years old and has been an absolutely terrible offensive player for the last 2 years.

It doesn't hurt to give Figgy a minor league contract. Doubtful he ever is a useful MLB player again, but maybe, just maybe he could be, and if he's going to be, I'd like it to be with the Phils on the cheap.

I don't want Ichiro -- and he'll resign with the Yankees anyway -- but he hit .322/.340/.454 for the Yankees. That's not "absolutely terrible."

Ichiro would be good as a 4th outfielder. He could play all outfield positions, pinch run, pinch hit...but not an everyday guy.

"I don't seem the harm of offering Figgins a minor league contract."

I see at least two ways that a minor league deal can cause harm. The first is that, minor league deal or not, the team might actually count on the guy to fill a key roster spot, and that might prevent them from going after other options. We saw this last year with Dontrelle Willis, whom the Phillies were almost surely counting on to win the LOOGY job.

The other way is that the guy could have a good spring training, earn a roster spot & maybe even a starting job, and then proceed to do an enormous amount of damage to the team for as long as he's here. We've basically seen this with Mini-Mart. He wasn't signed on a minor league contract, but he made the team based on a strong spring training -- and he's still doing damage to us 2 full years later.

Sophist: That time with the Yankees comprised one-third of his season. During the other two-thirds, he was awful -- as were his overall numbers.

Strong spring training? Was that the story? I thought it was because he was a Rule V pick. His 2011 ST was not strong.

BAP - Ichiro still has value. It's not really worth a detailed argument because neither one of us wants him around. But he was worth 2.6 fWAR last year and 7.7 over the last 3 years. His BAbip dropped in his last 1.5 in Seattle and then picked up to his career level with NY. He's not a game-changer but he's perfectly capable of hitting .300/.340 with 25-30 steals as a 40-year old.

Does anyone else find it interesting that many here think Ruf has a much much better chance to be an everyday MLB player than Brown does?

Given that Ruf, age 25, has never had a full season above AA ball? And Brown, age 24, has an OPS+ of 90 in his first 430 MLB ABs? And given that Brown has more tools?

Wouldn't the logical conclusion be that the guy who's gaining experience, is younger, has more tools and has already proved he can survive at the MLB level is more likely to be an everyday player?

What outside factor could lead to the opposite conclusion?

Iceman: Schierholtz is clearly not better than Nix. Also, I don't think the gap in their defense is big at all. Nix has a plus arm and his range in LF is above average (this is one of those rare instances in which UZR and scouting reports agree.)

I third not wanting Ichiro at the price he'll be, but he had a pretty prolonged look at life outside of Safeco and he was a .300 hitter/borderline .800 OPS guy.

Chances are he isn't THAT good over a full season but jeez, he had a good enough stretch last year that it can't be considered 'absolutely terrible.' And he's got skills outside of just hitting. He's still a good base-stealer and decent defender.

I wonder how many people on Earth simultaneously hold the thoughts that Ruf is a 35 HR-hitter and Ichiro is now 'absolutely terrible.'

I'm surprised this blog hasn't featured more talk about Ryan "WAR says I'm superior to Ryan Howard" Ludwick.

For some reason clout, you can't get over Ludwick's 2008 season, in which he posted a 5.6 fWAR.

Do you NOT think that his .299/.375/.591 (151 wRC+) line that year was better than Howard's .251/.339/.543 (120 wRC+) line?

I mean, you do agree that THAT year, Ludwick was the better player right?

Also, over his career, Howard has 19.8 fWAR through 8 full seasons (2.475 per year). Ludwick has 16.1 fWAR over 7 full seasons (if you want to count 2003). That works out to 2.3 fWAR per season.

So I don't really see your point.

Career numbers

Nix - .181/.263/.263 (.526 OPS) with 2 HRs & 52 Ks in 179 PAs as PH

Also has a career .526 OPS vs LHP in 228 PAs and a 180 pt difference in his splits.

Schierholtz - .305/.347/.420 (.727 OPS) with 2 HRs in 144 PAs

Also only has a 24 pt difference in his splits.

Schierholtz has a ~200 pts advantage in his PH numbers and really doesn't have a difference his splits.

Why he is a much better bench player than Nix.

fWAR per PA, by the way:

Ludwick: .0047011
Howard: .0047224

Again, i fail to see your point.

MG, why do you put so much faith in the small sample sizes of pinch hitting splits?

Fatalotti - Because Nix has been a horrible PH every year in his career. Not like he only had 1 or 2 bad year.

Also look at those Ks numbers and the lack of power.

Nix just sucks as a career PH. Maybe Schierholtz isn't quite that good but those numbers are much more in line with his career numbers.

Fat - In fact, if Nix is a bench player this year I predict Cholly will use him as his late-inning power threat off the bench vs RHP & he will fail horribly.

MG, these are the number of PAs he's had each year as a PH since 2009 (he never had more than 8.

2009: 40
2010: 49
2011: 34
2012: 27

So I guess a punch of minuscule sample sizes over 4 different years, suddenly equates to a legitimate sample size, in which we can confidently trust statistical trends?

By the way, in 2009, he had a .235/.350/.441 (.791) line, which means I guess that year, he did know how to pinch hit a little bit.

MG: Who is asserting that Nix is much better than Schierholtz?

It is you who asserted just the opposite. Iceman and I said that was ridiculous. They are very different players, but in terms of their value to the team they are about the same (as their salaries show). And since Nix was already under contract it didn't make sense to keep them both.

Fata: I'm just harking back to 2008 when posters here (and maybe even you) used WAR to assert that Ludwick was better than Howard PERIOD (not that he was better just that year), which is mostly how you and others here use WAR.

MG, if he were used primarily as a pinch hitter this year, I'd sooner trust his career numbers over 1927 PA which have him at a .719 OPS player, than 179 pinch hitting plate appearances.

clout, I never once said such a thing, and that's not how I use WAR, but it is fun to make stuff up, so OK.

Ha, that's rich. Schierholtz is a 'much better player' because of a random ~150 PA split pinch-hitting that holds basically no weight.

MG has created this bizarre premise that Nix is such an inferior player to Schierholtz that he'll do anything to try to justify it. They are both mediocre 4th-5th OF types with limited usefulness. Dime-a-dozen players, and it would be lunacy to pay one more than $1 million more than the other.

***Fata: I'm just harking back to 2008 when posters here (and maybe even you) used WAR to assert that Ludwick was better than Howard PERIOD (not that he was better just that year), which is mostly how you and others here use WAR.***

I dont recall a single poster ever doing that but hey, since you said it, it must have happened.

Fata, clout's trolling. I guess he's bored.

As a bench player, yeah I do think Schierholtz is 'much better' than Nix. Nix has start in LF (maybe RF) if he is going to have value to this team next year.

Iceman - I understand completely why Amaro non-tendered Schierholtz given that he already has Nix under contract.

The Phils dodged a bullet by not signing him before. I don't see them signing him this time around.

Edmundo, I like to counter-troll.

"Strong spring training? Was that the story? I thought it was because he was a Rule V pick. His 2011 ST was not strong."

My recollection is that his numbers were actually pretty good until the last couple weeks of spring training, when they dropped off. But, by that time, he had already earned his spot on the team.

BAP - If you look up the game logs, he was terrible from Mar 1-11th, hit really well from the 12th-17th (10 of his 17 hits), and was terrible from the 18th to the 30th.

I didn't think it was ST. I thought it was lack of options and that he had to be on the roster or offered back to WSH.

It looks like with Utley out in 2011, Valdez was the starter and there was an open roster spot. Either Orr or Martinez would fill it. Or Delwyn Young.

Brad Lidge retires. 41/41

or 48/48

Really mixed feelings on Lidge's overall tenure here but without I don't think the Phils even make the playoffs in '08.

He was also money that year in the postseason.

Brad Lidge was definitely a favorite of mine. He actually became moreso during 2009, when he stood up in front of the press after every blown save, It's easy for an athlete to be likable when he's racking up 41 straight saves and winning a WS, but to be the affable and approachable even during the most wretched season a reliever as ever had...impressed me.

Thanks for 2008 Brad. You'll always have a place in Phillies history and in our hearts for it. I don't care what happened after 2008, it was more than enough so you should never have to buy a drink in Philly and should always get some appreciation at Citizens Bank Park.

Lidge is a lock Wall-of-Famer I would think.

Totally agree, Fatalotti.

The only memory I have of the 2008 season is that one guy who said something about Ludwick being better than Howard. What a season that was!

My sources tell me that Pagan is a done deal...

"The White Sox and Phillies are the two most aggressive teams in pursuit of a third baseman, a source tells Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com. Kevin Youkilis is the object of both team's pursuit. Hayes writes the Sox may have to move another high salary in order to afford Youkilis and floats the names of Jeff Keppinger, Mark Reynolds, and Eric Chavez as alternatives."

Strike that, I think my sources are confused.

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