Phillies' CF market shrinks as Giants re-sign Pagan

Free agent centerfielder Angel Pagan, one of the Phillies' top targets after they missed out on B.J. Upton, has reached an agreement to re-sign with the Giants, according to CBS Sports.

The deal is for four years and $40 million, per Yahoo! Sports.

It was always believed that the Giants would make a strong push to keep Pagan and Marco Scutaro, two players that sparked the top of their lineup during a World Series run. Pagan gave San Francisco the speed threat in the leadoff spot it lacked in recent seasons and GM Brian Sabean was intent on keeping that threat by the bay.

With the Pagan chip off the table, the Phillies are left with even fewer free-agent options to fill their centerfield hole. Michael Bourn will still be on the market, but there are indications that the Phillies would rather spend that type of money on a bat with power. Bourn figures to make close to what Upton found with Atlanta (five years, $75 million), and the Phillies aren't thrilled by the price requests on the Scott Boras client.

Shane Victorino will be another choice, but he has a whole host of suitors and has reportedly been offered several three-year deals and even a four-year deal. The Phillies aren't expected to go out and top others' offers to bring back the talented but frustrating player they traded in July.

And then there's Josh Hamilton, a player who will surely be at the center of talks this week in Nashville at the Winter Meetings, a player who may require at least a five-year deal and a player who isn't a true long-term fit in center.

At this point, it might be time for some creativity. Peter Bourjos is not a true trade option, as the Angels plan to start him every day in 2013. Dexter Fowler ... maybe, but the Rockies' asking price has long been high on him and they reportedly asked the Braves for Mike Minor in a deal.

Suddenly, a market flush with centerfielders has turned into one that doesn't leave Ruben Amaro with too many correct, viable solutions.

Comments

[Sophist]

I think even before Upton and Pagan signed it was time for creativity. Neither one, at their probable price, was a great idea for this team.

[Sophist]

4/40 for Pagan apparently. Interesting.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

I hear what you're saying, Sophist, but neither contract handed out to those two players was crazy. Upton, in particular, offers enough value defensively that he should have no problem living up to his contract. Pagan may have a problem in year 4, and I think we would have howled about that had Amaro gotten that contract, but it's not as out of whack as I though Pagan could get.

[NEPP]

If Philly isn't going to pay Michael Bourn, who would? Is there another big budget team out there that really needs a CF?

Nats got Span, Braves got Upton, NY, BOS, LAD, LAA dont need a CF.

Doesnt seem like he's going to get the money he wants.

I also agree with Sophist above...though I'm very curious as to what Pagan took to stay in SF or if he was even serious about leaving as he might simply prefer the city/west coast to playing in Philly (where he has terrible career numbers and is familiar with due to his days in NY).

[NEPP]

***4/40 for Pagan apparently. Interesting. ***

I'd have paid that...and I imagine Rube would have too.

[Zudok]

Vic: Three years, $30 million. Blessing in disguise.

[Sophist]

KAS - I don't think signing Upton would have been crazy. I just don't think it would have been the best use of resources. I would have been okay with Upton - just not my preference.

[NEPP]

From MLBTradeRumors:

San Francisco had been one of Pagan's strongest suitors for most of the offseason, along with the Phillies. Danny Knobler of CBS Sports tweeted earlier this afternoon that the Phils still considered the price for the 31-year-old to be too high.

Interesting.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

If we can get Bourn at a discount, his glove alone likely makes him worth it. I'm not sure how many real "creative" options are out there. I don't love Bourn's bat, but his .350 OBP and speed isn't bad. I wish he wasn't left-handed, but, oh well.

We're running out of options and we have no internal choices.

[NEPP]

***We're running out of options and we have no internal choices.***

I think I can hear Boras laughing...

[AlexRosie]

If Fowler's price tag for a trade is so high, is it worth spending a little more or maybe even the same to acquire Justin Upton. How about Vic and J. Upton?

[NEPP]

I dont think we have the prospects to get Upton.

Based on what the rumors have the DBacks wanting.

[Sophist]

Phils don't have the resources (top SS prospect) to acquire J Upton. They'd probably have to trade Lee and get another team to chip in the prospect. Upton would cost way more than Fowler, I'd think.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

I'll give Amaro some credit if he thinks Pagan's asking price was too high.

And I agree, Sophist, I think if we are facing a particular budget ceiling, then there may be better ways to spend that money than on Upton.

Amaro is playing a dangerous game. CF isn't easy to fill and we have no internal solutions. It's a far cry from his tendency to strike first with a big deal.

[donc]

Heard Ricky Ricardo on the radio over the weekend. He said he personally spoke with the oxymoron and that he was sure he would end up here because Pagan really wanted to play in the Norhteast where he would only be a 2.5 hour plane ride from Puerto Rico. Maybe Rube has been snatched and the new version is a low-balling MF'er. Hey Dangerous Dave, check the basement for pods.

[NEPP]

***Upton would cost way more than Fowler, I'd think. ***

Agreed...if for not other reason than a good half dozen to dozen teams would jump in if/when Upton is seriously offered around for a trade.

[Sil Campusano]

4/40 sounds about right. I'm sure Rube knew it would take about that much to get him. Sounds like a similar situation to the Upton deal.

[Mark]

I'm starting to like the idea of getting Coco Crisp for cheap from the A's....just because I want to see a fro sticking out from the side of a Phillies cap again, Bake McBride style.

[AlexRosie]

At least in the end our offseason can't look as bad as the Marlins....

[lorecore]

nepp: "I think I can hear Boras laughing..."

Are you sure thats not Amaro laughing at the lack of suitors Bourn has left?

[Sophist]

KAS - Amaro's lowballing of Upton and whatever happened with Pagan here don't seem like the behavior of a desperate person. If he signs Vic for more than he was willing to sign him for last year then we'll know he was kinda desperate.

[NEPP]

***Are you sure thats not Amaro laughing at the lack of suitors Bourn has left?***

That would be awesome...I'm looking through the teams remaining and none of them are going to pay Bourn the money he wants. If Rube were able to end up "winning" a negotiation with Boras and getting Bourn relatively cheap, it'd be a huge win.

[donc]

I saw a report over the weekned that the Cubs were interested in Bourne. That had the stink of a Boras leak all over it.

[jbird]

I don't have a good handle on what Bourn should be worth, 4/$60m?

[Iceman]

Well, that sucks.

Amaro is operating like he's got a move in his back-pocket if none of the FA options work out on his terms. I hope that is the case.

[Jack]

I would've paid 4/40 for Pagan, but I can't get too worked up over it.

Interesting to see where it goes from here.

[lorecore]

Amaro out-negotiated Boras pretty good on the Madson deal last year. Of course he did so by screwing himself on a $50M closer, but strictly as Boras/Amaro is concerned - Boras was the one who ended up losing big commission on Madson in the end.

Lets hope this time Amaro can get a Boras client for cheap, instead of screwing himself in the process while the Boras' client signs cheaply elsewhere.

[The hook]

Looking bleak. I would be happy with a move. All these teams making moves and nothing cooking for us. Got a bad feeling. What happend to Philly being a place players wanted to go to? Now such is not the case.

[PhillyRhetoric]

I'm starting to suspect that Bourn has been the target all along. I'm wondering how to interpret these reports that suggest Amaro has taken negotiations with both Upton and Pagan to the doorstep and then backed off, with the player landing on a league rival at a cost most consider about what's to be expected. Either that or it's disinformation because Philly is not the hot landing spot for free agents that it has been in recent years.

[Pops]

Agree with NEPP.... Boras might not have the market to drive up the price as he so often does. We might be looking at a high stakes staring contest between Amaro and Boras. Who will blink first?

[Zudok]

The only way Bourn goes cheap is if he fires Boras first. Otherwise, he'll hold out all winter and sign with the Pottstown Firebirds if they've got the money.

[nonamePHame]

Hey Rube-

What are you doing? I am guessing you have ~ $25 million to spend for 3 spots (CF, RF, and Set-up). It sure doesn't seem like a lot...

Swisher, and Vic, and role the dice at set-up?

[Confucius]

Personally, I'm glad we did not get Pagan. Didn't seem to be bringing the dynamic lineup change we need. Regarding Bourn, doesn't matter how loud Boras cackles about price for him, with limited demand Ruben can stand pat a bit - no requirement that we have to have a CF tomorrow. Patience will pay off and the Phightin' will rebound. Re: Vic, wonder if he's really not being pursued by Ruben for reasons such as being a pain in the arse in the clubhouse - maybe egging on some bad conduct by J-Roll would be my guess. Anyways, let's get Hamilton in here for right field, drop Bourn in center on a contract at a level a touch greater than Pagan's, take Ichiro off the market and put him in left and get Brown and Ruf some AB's as the year flows. That would be a great mix. Also, Frandsen has the mental make-up to actually be a damn good ballplayer - let him alone. If he's sucking up the joint can always bring Polly back for some D - the rest of the lineup would more than compensate for any offensive issues. Let's Roll Ruben!!

[Sophist]

jbird - I think the hunch going into the offseason was that Bourn was probably going to get more $ and years than Upton. Not sure that's true now. Who's even going to give him 5/75?

[Jack]

The fact is that the Phils are just in a really awkward position. On the one hand, they see the future, and it is really bleak--no prospects to speak of, and an aging team heading the wrong way. It's one of the worst places to be in sports. On the other hand, they have the talent (and contracts) to justify trying to go all in and win now. In a certain sense, they have to do that.

It's just a tough position, because you're getting pulled both ways. On one hand, the idea of signing Pagan or Victorino to a 3 or 4-year deal, just to have them be irrelevant on a 75-win team in 2015 is laughable. On the other hand, you need to do whatever you can to upgrade the team for 2013.

It's a tough position for Amaro, for sure. It's one he helped put himself in, of course, but it's still tough.

[Willard Preacher]

For all the crap we give RAJ about overpaying early and outbidding himself, failure to do so here may result in the worst off season of his career. If he knee jerks into an overpay of Bourn out of desperation, I'll be very disappointed. He needs to leave enough $ to address 3B and a veteran bullpen arm.

I always thought Vic would be back, mostly because I see Vic as wanting to be in Philly even more than the Phillies wanting/needing him. Though, I'm guessing the idea of any sort of "home team discount" is about out the window.

[Jack]

"Amaro out-negotiated Boras pretty good on the Madson deal last year. Of course he did so by screwing himself on a $50M closer"

I think they call that cutting off your nose to spite your face...

[Willard Preacher]

"On the other hand, they have the talent (and contracts) to justify trying to go all in and win now..."

I wish I could agree with that.

[nokwurst]

Iceman: I agree it feels like RAJ has some sort of fall-back option that's keeping him from panicking. Maybe a standing trade offer w/ LAA or COL, or a wink/wink with Vic that RAJ gets to match any offer? Either way he's got something up his sleeve...

On getting creative: How about Chris Young? I know OAK just aquired him, but they're always willing to flip for more cheap prospects.

[timetosell]

So far i would have paid both upton and pagan their asking price, although i think the players were worth more like 5-60 and 4- 32 respectively. Maybe a sign that the phillies should use this year as a rebuilding time instead of overpaying in a trade for a moderate outfielder like they did with pence.

[loctastic]

ruf, mayberry, brown. can't wait

[Sophist]

Jack - They can always trade people. But your post is why I liked the idea of Soriano or Bourjos and Youk. But also why I like the idea of Hamilton. If you're going to go all in just do it. If you're going to roll the dice with Frandsen and Galvis, Pagan and Ruf/Brown, just trade Lee and Doc and Utley now and start rebuilding.

[Sophist]

There were a whole bunch of CF on the market (there still are a couple and trades to be had) and no clear best option (no clear worst either). Not sure why failing to pull the trigger on Pagan or Upton is really putting people in panic mode.

[Jack]

Sophist: Yep. People always preach patience, until it comes time to actually do it.

If you wanted Amaro to wait out the market because it would be a buyer's market late, you had to be willing to watch a few guys you might have liked sign somewhere else. That's how it goes.

[Sophist]

Jack - and now it's not clear who's going to drive up the price for Vic or Bourn, if FA is the why to go here. Cubs and Reds are reported, but I can't imagine either one of them going crazy in both of these cases. Someone should fall into the Phils lap.

[Jr.]

Guess the Dbacks wouldn't consider Galvis in a package for Upton.That only leaves JRoll. JRoll and KK?

[Iceman]

Sophist- I'm not in panic mode. I just wanted Pagan and thought he represented the best value on the market.

I said this a few days ago, but it really might be the case now that Amaro is playing a game of chicken with Boras/Bourn that he isn't going to get the money he wants. That might be his ace in the hole. Either way, he is operating like a guy that feels he can get what he needs in CF without paying out the nose. I just hope he himself doesn't go into 'panic mode' now and throw out a 5 year deal to Hamilton or something.

[oogie urbina]

Bourn and Youk would be a decent off-season.. Other than the elite closers, relievers are wildly unpredictable.. I don't care if we sign an "eighth inning guy" now or later in the winter/spring.

[MPNPhilly]

If they are negotiating against themselves why not just offer Bourn a 2 year deal at $13-15 mil per year? Bourn gets paid, Phillies assume less risk, and Bourn can try to make a run on another long-term deal in 2015.

[lorecore]

where the hell was I when the Dbacks traded away Chris Young, an mlb average CF with potential, to get washed up overpaid Heath Bell and scrub SS Cliff Pennington? Thats an absolute terrible trade.

I'm all for trading for Jupton now, because their GM is ripe to get fleeced again.

[J. Weitzel]

Some perspective, from MLBTradeRumors:

"While the top options on the free agent market may be out of the Twins' price range the club's search for pitching has Minnesota eyeing Joe Blanton as a "prime target," according to ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick. Kevin Correia and Brett Myers are also on the team's radar, Crasnick reports."

[Confucius]

Babe Ruf in left baby!! Look no further than our own backyard!! Let Ruffian take his hacks with the Big Piece - would be a sight to behold - The Bank would be magnetic!!

[Confucius]

Boomstat!!

[lorecore]

We should have held onto Wilson Valdez and Chad Qualls, so we could have flipped them to Arizona for Chris Young.

[Sil Campusano]

I can see Boras brokering a 1 year deal for Bourn (much the same way he did for Madson) if the market dries up and he doesn't get what he wants. Not sure how much leverage that gives Rube, but I would be interested in Bourn on that deal.

[Sophist]

Bourn is what he is. Not sure he has much to gain from the Beltre strategy.

[jbird]

If the Reds did sign a CF, how about Stubbs as a reclamation project?

[Willard Preacher]

I'd be shocked if Bourn signed a one year deal (especially since his style of play is one that erodes a big quicker), but if he put up a comparable season, here would be his competition.

2014 FA CF's:
Coco Crisp (34) - $7.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Rajai Davis (33)
Jacoby Ellsbury (30)
Carlos Gomez (28)
Curtis Granderson (33)
Franklin Gutierrez (31) - $7.5MM club option with a $500K buyout
Tony Gwynn Jr. (31)
Chris Young (30) - $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

FWIW, this list alone has me convinced that we need an actual "solution" to CF. Not an "experiment" or "stop gap."

[nonamePHame]

I'll take Ellsbury next year, thanks.

[Jack]

WP: What do you mean by a "solution"?

I think the concern with a longer-term deal for a FA centerfielder isn't that we can get someone better next year--it's that the team is going to stink pretty soon, so we should try and avoid *more* longterm deals to aging players, who will only make it harder to do the rebuild that is eventually necessary.

The creative solutions some people are looking for (such as trading for Bourjos) are designed at taking a chance on some young guys. The idea of a "stopgap" is to try and find someone who can help us compete next year without impeding the future rebuild that it seems most people finally agree is coming, and coming soon.

[JJG]

What would Mayberry's upside as everyday CF be -- if that is Amaro's ultimate fallback? That being if Amaro were to go big on Corner OF (Hamilton) and 1/2 years for Youk. Clout and others were pretty critical of his everyday CF ability, but obviously his offensive limitations as an everyday player would be less of a liability than as a corner OF.

I'm sensing that Mayberry as everyday CF would be only slightly more legit than Frandsen as everyday 3B, but not by much.

[Sophist]

What are Mayberry's abilities against RHP? That's a good indication of his value as an everyday player.

[Brad]

On the offensive side, if they signed Swisher or Victorino and Youklis, I'd be ok with Mayberry getting the bulk of ABs in CF. But, they give up a lot of runs with Mayberry, Ruf/Brown, Youklis, Howard all offering below average defense. Not a lot of good choices here.

[Sophist]

What are Mayberry's abilities against RHP? That's a good indication of his value as an everyday player.

[Willard Preacher]

Jack, I guess I see things a bit differently. I say "solution" since I'm not of the mindset that the Phils are going to go into full on "rebuild" mode. I think they reinvest the money coming off of the books in the coming years (Utley, et al), coupled with additional TV revenue, in FA to remain relevant in a mediocre NL East. As such, I'd prefer to have one less "need" in coming years, by offering/trading for a guy who is more than a stop gap or rebuilding guy.

I suppose it all hinges on ones definition of "the future." I see a future where the Phils remain competitive, but do so by paying up, as they don't have the up-and-coming pipeline of farm studs that some other teams do.

[Brad]

On the offensive side, if they signed Swisher or Victorino and Youklis, I'd be ok with Mayberry getting the bulk of ABs in CF. But, they give up a lot of runs with Mayberry, Ruf/Brown, Youklis, Howard all offering below average defense. Not a lot of good choices here.

[Willard Preacher]

Jack, I guess I see things a bit differently. I say "solution" since I'm not of the mindset that the Phils are going to go into full on "rebuild" mode. I think they reinvest the money coming off of the books in the coming years (Utley, et al), coupled with additional TV revenue, in FA to remain relevant in a mediocre NL East. As such, I'd prefer to have one less "need" in coming years, by offering/trading for a guy who is more than a stop gap or rebuilding guy.

I suppose it all hinges on ones definition of "the future." I see a future where the Phils remain competitive, but do so by paying up, as they don't have the up-and-coming pipeline of farm studs that some other teams do.

[The Truth Injection]

Jack: Do tell what else will happen in 2015.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Jack: I'm with you. I would have taken Pagan and 4/40, but wouldn't have called it a great deal. I also would have taken Upton at 5/75 and thought it had a chance to be a great deal... or at worst fair, but I'm not broken up about it.

It's a nice change of pace to see Amaro being patient. Of course, it may just be driven by the first year in awhile with no post-season revenue! But I'm going to avoid being too cynical and believe he's working to make the smartest move possible.

If it's Bourn cheap, I'm okay with that. Vic for a couple years cheap... that's not as exciting to me. A trade? I'm not sure the window is open long enough to continue to empty the farm clubs.

[JJG]

Sophist,
Mayberry is terrible against RHP, which could have in theory allowed for a (very) poor man's CF platoon of Mayberry and Schierholtz if they had kept the latter. But I think beyond Mayberry's limitations against RHP, his defensive limitations in CF make him only a spot starter.

Just thinking of ways to solve CF if $ go to fix corner OF and prospects go to solve 3B.

[Chris]

Willard, mediocre NL East? Nats could be good for a long time and the Braves aren't too aged either...

[awh]

"ruf, mayberry, brown. can't wait"

loctastic, don't joke, that may be the plan. :)

Quick question, does anyone know what RFD's L/R splits were in the second half of last season?

He put these numbers up overall, which, IMO would be great considering his salary/cost and defense if he could just do it for an entire season: .256/.327/.410

[Willard Preacher]

Chris, admittedly I paused before typing "mediocre" as obviously the Nats are positioning themselves to be quite good for some time.

That said, the 2nd Wild Card opens things up a bit. And I don't know that I'm sold on the Braves being a sure thing on a consistent basis as of yet.

Net/net, my point is that the Phillies are not exactly resigned to full-on rebuilding in the coming years. I think that they'll be financially flush to assemble a competitive team on an ongoing basis, which recent history has shown us is all you need to do (the playoffs being a crapshoot and all of that...).

[clout]

Jack: I agree with you. That's the situation in a nutshell. Of course, BAP says Phils will contend in 2014 so perhaps we're just worrywarts.

[MG]

If Amaro really wanted Upton or Pagan, I think he would have signed both considering the deals they got. Neither was a huge surprise on what was being speculated. If Amaro really likes a player, he will overpay. Just don't think he was that crazy about Upton or Pagan given the other issues the Phils.

Amaro is trying to fill 3 holes (3B, CF, setup reliever) and doesn't have the available funds ($24M total to say under the luxury tax threshold) to do it.

Why Lopez trade really screwed things up. That would have filled the setup spot & left the Phils will plenty of cash ($22M or so) to fill address 3B and CF.

Maybe Amaro is playing coy with Bourn (the guy he wanted all along) but that hasn't been Amaro's tactic as a GM with the exception of JRoll last year. Even then, JRoll still got his 4th year since it isn't that hard to vest the option.

[Willard Preacher]

Dennis Deitch ‏@DennisDeitch

Amaro did not sound very enthusiastic about having Shane Victorino 2.0 in center field.

[MG]

Curious to see if the $5M signing bonus that Pagan got this year kicked the balance towards the favor of the Giants.

[lorecore]

I agree with WP and disagree with Jack/clout. The Phils aren't bound to rebuild mode after this year. They might not see a stretch of 5 Division titles again, but guess what? No one else does either.

[MG]

Lorecore - maybe not 5 but if the nats make the right moves they easy could be looking at at a few in a row.

[Willard Preacher]

With 2 WC spots, does it matter if you compete for the Division title every year?

You just have to be able to field a team that can make a run at 88 wins or so.

[bay_area_phan]

"Of course, BAP says Phils will contend in 2014 so perhaps we're just worrywarts."

clout: That is not what I said at all. In fact, this is the first time in my Beerleaguer history that I've ever been accused of being unreasonably optimistic.

What I said was that it's an arbitrary and artificial construct to say that the window is open this year but will close after that. Frankly, I'm not even so sure the window hasn't already closed unless they make some fairly significant additions to the team (whether through design or by sheer luck). However, if they are able to fix these areas and contend 2013, then they'll certainly have the pieces in place to believe themselves capable of contending again in 2014. Doesn't mean they WILL contend. It means they'll have the opportunity to potentially contend. That's what a window of opportunity is -- as seems to be understood by every poster on Beerleaguer except you.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Rosenthal says Phils have talked to Rockies about Fowler. Says Rockies want pitching (doesn't everyone?).

[Iceman]

Myths that have been pushed in the last 60 minutes:

-MG continuing this 'J-Roll got his fourth year' crap. He got 3 years and a vesting option based on PAs. If he doesn't hit that because of injuries or whatever else, he doesn't get it. This lie that Amaro caved on a 4th year reminds me of stuff you hear on right wing talk radio. MG really believes it but it isn't true no matter how much he says it

-Jack insinuating that people are 'finally coming around' on the fact that a re-build (or at the very least a re-tool) is coming in a year or two. I don't think I've read one person that has claimed that isn't going to happen. Now, there are certainly differing opinions of if the team can be competitive during those years (I happen to think yes, though it won't be easy- it's just foolish to call the 2015 Phils a 75-win team in December of 2012 with all the money coming off the books between now and then, coupled with a TV deal on the horizon). But there isn't a single person on BL that is naive to the fact that the face of the team is going to change dramatically in 2014 & 2015. Totally made-up argument.

[Circus]

I've never liked this crop of outfielders - I'm fine w raj not letting the average selection dictate the next 4-5 years.. Still waiting for lee or Halladay to Arizona for upton and raj signing greinke.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

In this ESPN video, Keith Law says the Phils don't have the prospects to trade for a CF so it's Hamilton, Bourn or a big hole.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8706652

[The Truth Injection]

Jack: I agree with you. That's the situation in a nutshell. Of course, BAP says Phils will contend in 2014 so perhaps we're just worrywarts.

_________________________________________

clout: Maybe not worrywarts, but more sort of assuming one conclusion for the coming years. Yes they could stink from 2014 forward but there is a chance that they may not. Lots of things can change between now and then including prospects maybe taking leaps forward, new money coming in, or some trades pulled off to bring in new blood.

I think you would concede that there are moves that can be made that would increase the chances of continuing to battle for a playoff spot for the foreseeable future. This is a big off-season for Amaro because it lays out a path for the future.

[DPat]

Seems like whomever RAJ is interested is signing with other teams. Seems there low-balling everyone. Looks like this is g
oing to be a fruitless exercise. Can't help but wonder how the team,s gonna look. But right now it's not lookin' to good. a failure so far.

[awh]

"If you're going to roll the dice with Frandsen and Galvis, Pagan and Ruf/Brown, just trade Lee and Doc and Utley now and start rebuilding."

Sophist, I think the obvious answer to that is that a team with the payroll "ability" such as the Phillies ought to be able to compete every year just like the Yankees.

Sometimes (2012) it may not work out because of things like injuries or the replacements not performing up to even their own standards, but IMHO the Phillies ought to be able to compete every year.

[erich]

Hurray! I remember how bad Pagan was with the Mets; He's already won several games for the Phillies, and he can win some more with the Giants.

[Sophist]

I don't disagree in theory, but that doesn't mean the best bet is to spend as much as they want every year in the hopes of maxing out their win pct. on an annual basis. I was more just making the same point as Jack in any case.

[STS]

Sign Hamilton to 4 x $27.5MM. Is anyone really offering him 5 x $25 or $6 x $20? I haven't seen it.

Same as Cliff Lee -- more money, shorter length.

That would confirm they'll compete in 2014/5; not because they'll have Hamilton, but because they'll be cementing their status as re-loaders not re-builders.

I like it because it maximizes the value of the dollars sepnt on a known quantity. For a team that can spend $175MM-185MM, might as well pick the more certain option and slightly overpay for it (i.e. much more difficult for 80MM-120MM contingent to do: http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/baseball/mlb/salaries/team ).

Seems more efficient to me; they don't have to hope that a player like Upton or Werth are worth their contracts in yr 5 and 6 of long term deals.

Pay for quality now, then recycle as needed.

[Sophist]

Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21
Amaro not high on overall FA class. "I don't know that there is a difference maker. Well, maybe one." Hamilton? Rube: "Next question."

[MG]

JRoll did essentially get his 4th year and even still walks away with no less than $5M in '15.

So yeah Amaro did give in on JRoll to basically a 4th year as long as he is the starter in '14.

"2015 option guaranteed at $11M with 1) 600 plate appearances in 2014 or 2) 1,100 PAs in 2013-14 and Rollins is not on disabled list at end of 2014 season (or if he is on the DL, a mutually agreed upon doctor deems him available for 2015 Opening Day roster)
if option does not vest, Phillies hold $8M club option for 2015 and Rollins holds $5M player option"

[The Truth Injection]

Always good to see MG argue with facts that disprove his argument.

[Jack]

I actually agree with BAP on the artificiality of the "window" construct.

I just happen not to think that this team has the flexibility going forward to be able to put together some highly competitive teams, given the resources they have tied up in aging players and the lack of prospects to fill in with good production for cheap.

I also think people are overly confident that the Phillies will bounce back and be good in 2013, before the "window" closes. I think it's entirely possible that last year wasn't an aberration at all--that they won't be good this year, either.

[t-dub]

I say go after Hamilton and sell on Dominic Brown and Vance Worley now. We'll be able to grab whatever else we need (3b, more OF speed and a set-up reliever). Chuck should be able to manage a lineup of Rollins, Utley, Hamilton, Ruf, Howard, Mayberry, 3rd baseman & Catcher. Maybe even slide Youkilis on the books to play 3b.

[Meyer]

Maybe Amaro has that multi-team trade in the works. Maybe he's making a play for Giancarlo. Yeah Stanton, Bourn and The Babe.

[Iceman]

You can't 'essentially' or 'basically' cave on a year of a contract. You either give him the extra year or you don't. Amaro didn't.

MG, you're acting like the option vests as long as Rollins keeps a pulse, but in 2010 Rollins had less than 400 PAs and less than 1100 PAs in 2010 & 2011, his last two years before FA. One of the real reasons for reluctance on giving Rollins a long-ish deal was this very reason- staying on the field. If, in years 2 and 3, Rollins repeats his PA numbers from '10-11 (when he was the full-time starter) and misses time in 2014 like he did very recently, his option doesn't vest. It isn't that unrealistic that this happens. It is a safeguard against an injured Rollins just automatically getting paid in [theoretical] Year 4.

You basically were convinced Amaro would bend over and give Rollins a 4th year unconditionally, and he didn't, so you're hanging on to this as justification to b*tch about the contract anyway.

[BobbyD]

I have no idea what the Phillies should do, but I'm just not upset about any of these players they're missing out on. Upton is grossly overpaid. Pagan reminds me of the Mets. Bourn isn't worth what he'll get. Hamilton is left-handed. I don't want any of these guys.

[Len39]

Yeah, I'm not too sad to see the Phils missing out on these players either. You figure they would have had to go $11-$12 million per year and four years for Pagan, is he really that good? Not at all. Upton is exactly what the team should be avoiding now. I would like to see Bourn, I still think it can happen. I mean who is going to pay him what Boras wants? All the big players seem to be out.

On the other hand, I am big on trying to trade for Fowler. It's a gamble, but he could be a difference maker if last year was a sign of things to come and not a fluke. Team control till 2016 too.