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Tuesday, December 25, 2012

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Papelbon, Adams, and Bastardo are locks. Even if Bastardo cannot find the strike zone in ST, I still think he makes it.

DeFratus makes it since I think he is likely the most consistent guy with plus stuff.

Horst should make it based on last season and may end up the 'longman'. If that is his role that might open the door for Diekman. I think Rosenberg is the other option I'd guess as the long reliever since he can pitch multiple innings but is not yet consistent enough to be a back end piece.

Aumont may need more time in AAA to see if he can find the strike zone. I think he should start in AAA and let some other middle relievers see what they have.

I think Stutes would have the inside track having had success in the minors previously. Schwimer might be the next guy, but I do wonder if the organization tries to trade him.

Also, Phillies should see who might take a minor league deal or Spring Training invitation out of the crop of free agents. If a 'known' quantity guy will take $1M I'd certainly go for that as then minimum is ~$0.5M so it would be worth the $500K to try an experienced arm.

But the Spring should determine the last few spots. My preference at this time is:
Papelbon, Adams, Bastardo, DeFratus, Stutes, Horst, Rosenberg (I think the Phillies have Aumont instead of Rosenberg).

I think Aumont is with he club unless he pitches his way off of it.

I also think Horst should be the second lefty. I don't get why he'd be the long man.

I'd add Valdes as the last arm and make him the long man/swing man.

I could see the Phils signing one more bullpen arm, but I wouldn't be surprised if they stood pat until spring training.

I'd like to see the following bullpen:

Papelbon - RHP closer / 9th inning
Adams - RHP setup / 8th inning
Bastardo - LHP/ 7th inning
Aumont - RH power pitcher / 7th inning
DeFtratus RHP / 5th,6th, 7th inning
Diekman - Lefty specialist and/or 5th-6th
Cloyd - Long relief/emergency starter

The odd man out here is Stutes. He may end up making the club in Aumont's place to get Aumont more work in AAA.

Aumont's a lock unless he gets hurt early in spring training.

Papelbon
Adams
Aumont
Bastardo
Horst

Really 2 spots open with DeFratus a very strong favorite to open the year with the club. Really is one spot left up to grab.

Might go with a 2nd lefty if Horst is designated as the long man although it make more sense to go with the guy who has the best spring training.

Cloyd isn't going to be in the pen. Almost certainly opens the year at Lehigh as a starter again.

Still like them to sign another veteran and there are several out there I like including Lyon.

Phils are well-under the luxury tax threshold. If they go into the season $10M under the luxury tax threshold, it is not to make in-season roster moves. There isn't a contract that they would take on the trading deadline that would have that kind of impact over the final 2 months.

I would bet that is because they are concerned about ticket sales/gate revenue projections vs previous years.

I don't see Aumont as a lock at all. If he shows up at spring training and walks every batter he faces (which is about 50-50), he ain't making the team.

valdes had success against R and L and would be the addition to pappelbon, adams, horst, bastardo, aumont and defratus. stutes needs innings in AAA-missed all of last yr. bullpen should be a strength for the next several yrs.

"I would bet that is because they are concerned about ticket sales/gate revenue projections vs previous years."

This has quickly become MG's new daily go-to argument.

I believe they can make it tho

It might not be the worst idea in the world to stockpile the best free agent bullpen talent that they can afford, start the season with Aumont, Horst and DeFratus in AAA and then trade off the newcomers at the deadline to the highest bidder to replenish the farm.

Will: Even good relievers don't have much trade value. About all you'd be able to replenish by trading them away would be your organizational depth.

CP - Papelbon
8TH - Adams
8TH - Bastardo
7TH - Horst
7TH - Aumont
6TH - Stutes
EMER - Diekman


Hamels
Halladay
Lee
Kendrick
Lannan

Aumont = control + Phils
Aumont + no control = Pigs

Has as good a stuff as any pitcher on the roster but has spells where he has no idea where it is going.

Think Cloyd has to make team bec. need long man/emer.guy. Not sold on Defrattus or Bastardo . I have: Paps,Adams,Horst,Cloyd,Valdez. Like Valdez bec around plate. Then pick 2: Aumont, Bastardo,Rosenberg, Stutes, Schwimmer, Diekman, Defrattus. Dieks is too wild and Schwim wore out welcome.Pick 2 of the remaining 4- butdams might not be ready and if want Cloyd in AAA, need a longman-how about Lannan(terrible signing) to pen and sign a better SP?

Battle would be between Aumont and Diekman kid. Whichever of these 2 display more control im figuring will probably be on roster. Though im guessing Aumont will probably get the longer look. I think Cloyd would be the emergency call up kid.

Paps and Adams are locks of course. For the other 5 spots, guys with good stuff tend to get more rope than guys with mediocre stuff.

That means unless one of them has a total fail, Bastardo, Aumont & DeFratus should make the team.

For the final spots, Horst is a lefty version of Geoff Geary. Little upside, average stuff, but if he keeps getting people out, he'll stick. The other names mentioned here are mediocrities who may or may not have good years and will be sorted out in ST.

The Phillies got us an even crappier OF for Christmas. Cheap bastards.

There's no way Cloyd makes the club unless it's as the 5th starter. His stuff definitely does not play out of the bullpen. We'll need a guy stretched out in AAA for when we need to fill a spot in the rotation.

If Horst ends up being the long man, expect another guy with stuff to make the club... Diekman if he shows some control, Stutes if he shows he's healthy or a guy like Howell from free agency.

If Horst is the second lefty, I give Valdes the edge as the long man.

GTown: who?

The Drudge Report stole our "Merry Cliffmas".

Horst is a marginal reliever whose good numbers last year were purely a sample size phenomenon. He's ok as a LOOGY, but elevating him to a long man role would be a disaster. Guys like Scwhimer, Stutes, and even Rosenberg are all better candidates for that role. Or, alternatively, they could sign a failed starter off the FA market & make him the long man.

Jeremy Horst fan club:

I have no idea if Horst can repeat what he did last year but the scouting reports on him turned out not to be very accurate due to the notable improvements Horst showed last year.

Went from a guy who was 87-88 on his 4-seam fastball to a guy who was 90-91. Also showed marked improvement on his offspeed stuff with a slider that became a real out pitch ahead in the count & a decent changeup.

Pitchers don't get a >13% swing & miss rate due to have fluky stuff especially if they are throwing at ~90. It is because they have at least one really good offspeed pitch with Horst showed last year (slider).

Don't think Horst is able to maintain that high of a swing & miss rate or K/9 rate but I do love his chances to be a long-man and/or staple in the bullpen next year.

Horst was their main long guy out of the pen (8 of his 22 appearances were more than 1 IP) last year in August/Sept and these were his numbers:

22 G, 21 1/3 IP, 1.27 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 11.8 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 2.6 K/BB, 68% strike zone, 13% swing and miss, 53% ground ball rate, .192 BAA, .292 BABIP, 3 of 12 inherited runners score

BB/9 was a little on the high side but if you look at those peripheral numbers they are very solid and signs of a guy who is pitching very well.

Also destroyed LH last year:

.170/.250/.191 (.441 OPS) with 4 BBs and 17 Ks and just 1 XBH in 57 PAs

That's domination and a lot better than Diekman:

.200/.345/.244 (.590 OPS) with 9 BBs and 9 Ks and 6 XBH in 61 PAs

One guy to watch in spring training especially to see what his fastball velocity is at and to see if his slider has that really nasty hook it developed last year.

If he is at 90-91 on his fastball and has that nasty slider, he's going to play a major role in the pen for this team next year.

Given how Horst pitched last year and how dominant he was vs LH, Diekman has no business on this team even with a good spring.

What good is a situational reliever who BBs batters at the rate Diekman did this year (~15%) with as many Ks as BBs?

clout - Gas Can never showed the quality of an offspeed pitch that Horst did last year (slider).

Geary was a victim of Cholly's insane bullpen usage in '06 when he appeared in 91 G officially and I bet if you went back with finer detail probably warmed up in the pen another ~10 games or so.

Geary developed arm problems after including missing time in '07 & and '09 was never the same caliber pitcher. Geary was out of organized baseball by '10.

Ditto Fultz who was used really hard by Cholly in '05 and '06. He had arms problems the rest of his career and was out of organized baseball by '08.

Lasallescreamer, why do you think that Lannan was such a terrible signing?

Maybe theyll bring back Conteras...

Fun Facts:

Geary actually was a better pitcher almost completely across the board in 2008 than he was in 2006.

Geary didn't appear in 81 games in 2006.

Apparently 66 games is working heavy for a relief pitcher.

MG still likes to say silly things.

That should say Geary didn't appear in 91 games in 2006. He appeared in 81

I think G_town means the OF (as a whole) is crappier than last yr. Probably true, however if there's a negative to be found, G_town's your man. :) Hope everyone had a blessed Christmas!

oogie, I don't think there's any question that the OF is "crappier" than the one that started last season.

2012
LF - Pierreberry
CF - Vic
RF - Pence

2013
LF - Rufnix
CF - Revere
RF - Brownberry


There's not one OF spot where they, on balance, are better on paper than they were to begin last season. Rever may be a better defender than Vic, but that's about it.


But frankly, as much as DPat, GTown and others get their panties in a wad about it, I don't think the OF, as currently constituted is going be be a difference maker in 2013, nor IMO would it have been a difference maker had they added another outfielder.

In 2012 the Phillies had a league average offense. It was the pitching - particularly the bullpen - that crapped the bed.

It will be the pitching in 2013 that make the difference as well.

oogie, glad to see your our of prison and tossing the ball at 90.

Can you get North for a workout? The Phils bullpen can use another experience piece right aobut now.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/24/ugueth-urbina-is-out-prison/

I would say that the Phils are trying to win on pitching and defense except that Young might be an adventure at third and the jury is out on Ruf in left.

Interesting bit on the new trend to hire a 2nd batting coach, which the Phillies did this year.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot

Glad our ofers get to actually play and don't have to play on paper. Biggest surprise of 2013=OFers.
No before myou reply,not a negative surprise.When everybody has written them off as garbage,not hard to have a positive result, Yea OFERS!
No Ofers is not there ba. That should cover all the sarcasem.

Since my namesake was brought up I attempted to make up an all-star prison baseball team: Denny McClain on the mound ,Andruw or Dykstra CF, Ron LeFlore LF, Gates Brown RF, Pete Rose 1B, Wally Backman 2B Jose Offerman SS, Kevin Mitchell 3B Steve Howe CL, Billy Martin Mgr. It's fair to say you could form a league with the players who have run afoul of the law..

Ron LeFlore!

Shoeless Joe Jackson was convicted of perjury. I think he should be your leftfielder.

Seems like the majority of people view Aumont above DeFratus on the depth chart - I am pretty sure thats incorrect. DeFratus has and continues to be the better reliever, his delay in getting called up was due to health issues that are now behind him.

While Aumont is below DeFratus, I still think the job is as it stands now. The Phillies would be foolish to not acquire another reliever given their offseason moves so far. There are plenty of available upgrades who are likely available without a multiyear commitment.

My guess, in order, is:

Paps
Adams
Bastardo
FA (i'll take either handedness)
DeFratus
Aumont
*Horst if the FA is RHP
*Stutes if the FA is LHP

I could see Schwimer and Valdes as well, but guys like Rosenberg, Diekman, Cloyd, Savery aren't viable options to me outside of emergencies.

GTown, you're not allowed to criticize the outfield. That's why we have a nice young infield to take up the slack.


IF average age? 34.25 years


No worries.

Denny McClain & Dwight Gooden would definitely make the rotation.

Daryl Strawberry is another candidate for the prison squad outfield. Too lazy to look it up, but if he wasn't convicted for cocaine, he should've been.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/12/24/ugueth-urbina-is-out-prison/

JUst add him... Put incentives in his contract - like if he doesnt steal equipment after 50 games, a 25k bonus.. a full season w/o criminal activity 50K bonus

Cesar Cedeno got away w/murder.. literally

TTI - So fine it was 81 G. It still doesn't change the fact that Geary lost fastball velocity and struggled badly in the early part of '07 in large part due to that heavy usage in '06.

I remember being at the game where Geoff Geary fouled the ball off the plate and into his face, thereby sending him to the DL for some time...

Geary struggled because he wasnt that good, not because he was mishandled.

Is there any info on Mike Stutz? I haven't seen anything on him.

Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
Stutes
Horst
DeFratus or(Aumont if control)
Valdes

Valdes is in the same category as Horst, but one rung lower. He's a 35 year old minor league journeyman, who was terrible in his only full season in the majors (2010). To believe that he can give us us anything more than minor league depth in 2013 is just foolhardy. Even a bad pitcher can put up good numbers over 31 innings, which is precisely why the lightning-in-a-bottle reliever is such a common phenomenon. That's all that Valdes was last year.

Yeah, what is the deal with Stutes? I haven't heard much about him. How is he recovering? Does he have a timetable for return? He had a decent 2011 and was somewhat promising.

(I don't think Stutes is the "solution," All Star or any of that stuff, so save it.)

You guys just don't get it. Geary was in the majors for one reason and one reason only. He was Ed Wade's illegitimate love child. Check out the pictures. Dead ringer.

bap: I'm tired of you bashing players with great numbers in the minors just because their older.

Just give Valdes a chance!

jbird: "Shoeless Joe Jackson was convicted of perjury."

No, he wasn't.

They cannot go against the Nats with this outfield they shudda traded for Curtis Granderson. Infield Is not much better 2 left handed cripples on the right side pop ups at SS and who knows what at 3rd. Advantage Nats again. They'll be watching the post season on TV make yer bets early.
When will they deliver this club from the Amaro mob ?

season=over before it even starts

lore: If Valdes actually had great -- or even good -- numbers in the minors, you can rest assured that I'd be all in favor of giving him a chance.

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/phillies-talk/Double-platoon-or-not-Phillies-need-anot?blockID=817267&feedID=704

From Corey Seidman today phans. AWH~ Particularly for you is you haven't seen it already. Hope everyone had a great Christmas.

Very helpful info. Hope to see more discussions soon!

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