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Monday, December 24, 2012

Comments

aksmith: "Clout - I doubt there is one person who thinks the rule 5 pick is going to stick."

Actually, there was post about 5 or so above yours from Schweitzer saying the kid will be with the team. Several others have said same thing since the draft.

But glad you agree with me.

DPat is at it again with his last post on the previous thread.

DPat, no matter HOW MANY YIMES people repeat this to you, you keep coing back with the same tired schtick.

I don't know whether you're being willfully ignorant or you just don't have the capacity to understand. I believe it's the former, so I'l give you one last chance to "get it".

Fron b-r.com, this is what the Phillies got from the palyer who played positions in the field last season:

..C - .295/.363/.497, 24 HR, 95 RBI
1B - .241/.308/.415, 27 HR, 102 RBI
2B - .255/.325/.411, 17 HR, 84 RBI
3B - .272/.315/.357, 5 HR, 42 RBI
SS - .244/.309/.413, 23 HR, 68 RBI
LF - .290/.340/.420, 13 HR, 69 RBI
CF - .268/.332/.412, 16 HR, 66 RBI
RF - .246/.315/.411, 23 HR, 81 RBI
PH - .206/.270/.290, ..5 HR, 23 RBI


So, where is production likely to increase, and where is it likely to decrease?

..C - decrease. Career yrs from Chooch and Frandsen won't be repeated.
1B - increase. A full season of Howard is likely to best those numbers.
2B - increase. A full season of Utley is likely to increase those as well.
3B - increase. I'll bet a full season of Young bests that.
SS - wash. 699 of the 733 PA were taken by JRoll and his .250/.316/.427
LF - decrease. Only a full-season miracle from Ruf will likely increase that.
CF - decrease. Revere is likely to match BA/OBP only.
RF - dunno. Fulltime Dom would likely increase the OBP, but the SLG is a "?".
PH - increase. There's nowhere to go but up.

So, if you look at the totality of it the Phillies are likely to be an average to slightly-above-average offense in 2013.

DPat, this is what you don't get:

It will come down to the pitching, not adding another bat.

And I'm not sold that the Braves and Nats will be better, because you're counting on ALL FOUR of the Nats pitchers having career years again, which I think is about as likely as Ruf raking in the Show. And do you see Medlen posting another 1.57 ERA?

So, they have a shot, but they have to pitch better - much better - than last season, and another OF bat won't make a damn bit of difference if that doesn't happen.

Get it now? Finally?

awh: He doesn't because he is the latter in your scenario. In his eyes Amaro needed to add offense last off-season. But not just any offense, he needed to add the offense that DPatrone wanted him to.

Same thing will happen this season should the Phillies falter. He will say Amaro didn't do enough and conveniently ignore that Amaro got outbid on a couple items and then didn't shell out extra years and cash- something people have said he shouldn't do anyway.

DPat is the WIP fan that people speak of.

The Yankees' lineup was the best possible fit for Ibanez. He was surrounded with lineup protection and could be shielded from lefties, plus the park couldn't be more perfect.

He'll turn 41 this season, joins one of the worst lineups in baseball, playing half his games in an extreme pitchers park. He's going to bomb.

awh: You made an assertion: the team, as presently comprised, is better than the team which went 34-25. You didn't say we are better than last year's team as a whole. You singled out the 34-25 slice of the season as your point of comparison. Except you then proceeded to compare today's team, not to the cast of characters who went 34-25, but to a conglomeration of players who played for the Phillies over the entire season. But if you're going to use the 34-25 team as your point of comparison, don't you have to use: (1) the same players who were playing during that stretch; and (2) the actual numbers that those players posted? The fact that Kevin Frandsen could never possibly repeat those results is irrelevant to this particular argument. Those numbers happened & they were a big reason why we posted the 34-25 record, which you now say we've improved upon.

Michael Young is almost certainly an upgrade over Frandsen, in terms of how the 2 will perform this year. But I doubt very seriously that he'll be an upgrade over what we got from the 3rd base position during that 34-25 stretch. Of course, it was a silly comparison to make in the first place, but it was your comparison, not mine.

Frandsen was great when he played last year. But Ruiz was out and after Kratz's early hot streak I think he cooled considerably. Without trying to decipher the numbers from the 34-25 team, I'd guess those two production values 'even out'.

I think the bullpen was likely the biggest reason for the stronger stretch. The Philles held onto leads and won close games. That will definitely swing a 9 game spread.

I think I agree with clout who said Inciarte will not make the team. I agree he was taken in case the Phillies did not obtain a CF. Even so, he was likely just leverage so Amaro could pretend in negotiations that he had CF 'fixed' with this scrub.

Overall, I think it was an okay choice since he appears to have a decent OBP and can field. Phillies already have an excellent defensive CF in Jiwan James but he was also exposed in the Rule5 draft so there was no guarantee Phillies would have him either.

Inciarte was a decent insurance pick against 'Mayberry only' or 'James being drafted' but I really see no point in having another no hit, defensive CF when James and Gillies are both in the minors.

Considering the picks after Inciarte and who was available, I did not see anyone worth drafting. Maybe a power bat who could not field (Ruf type clone) to give a shot in LF. I liked one of the C, figuring he could at least stick around for the 1st 25 games if Valle was traded. Of course, taking a flier an any Lefty Reliever is never a bad course of action in Rule 5.

PhxPhilly: Totally agree. That's precisely why I think it's fairly silly to slice off the last 2 months of the season, when the Phillies happened to play their best ball, and compare that roster to this year's. Once you get into slices of the season, there are just all sorts of anomalies due to random variation in the performance of individual players. If you're going to make a comparison, it should be to the full-season team that went 81-81.

Of course, as I said in my original posts, even those comparisons are just mental masturbation. If you make sunny assumptions about the many unknowns, you'll conclude that we've improved. If you make gloomy assumptions, you'll conclude that we haven't. End of story.


If you make sunny assumptions about the many unknowns, you'll conclude that we've improved. If you make gloomy assumptions, you'll conclude that we haven't. End of story.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, December 24, 2012 at 02:48 PM

-------------------------------------------------------

Bingo!

Young and injury:

Iceman - Young said it itself that he had been bothered by a 'nagging injury' most of last year when he was acquired & interviewed here.

Young has played at DH a lot the past because the Rangers had Beltre at 3B & his defensive shortcomings. They also did it at times to help them with wear/tear and playing through some injuries.

The last time he was on the DL was back in '09 when he missed a month him a pretty severe hamstring pull.

On the one hand, good for Ibanez. On the other hand, I think the Mariners are idiots.

AWH & TTI~ You both will see. I said it last year too. Injuries played a large part in what happened last year. I do "get it". I've been around long enough to understand things very well. Neither of you just don't think so.

The problem is that neither of you undertand what I saying. You keep coming at me with stats. That's all well and good.

But right now, there's no one protecting Howard. And I'm talking about lineup balance from a starting player stand-point not a platoon situation. That's what NEITHER of YOU get.

Now, if Revere is leading off or hitting 8th? If he's leading off, does Jimmy hit 2nd, or does Young? If it's Young, does Jimmy hit 5? If Revere doesn't lead off, then he hits 8th, which in my opinion may be a waste of his speed many times.

Which means Jimmy, Young, Utley, Howard, ?Chooch, (Mayberry/Ruf/Brown),
Revere, Pitcher.

See now? It's not a matter of a 25 HR guy, it's matter of teams being forced to pitch to Howard or not being able to bring in a loogy for him late in games. Mayberry will do well against LH's. Brown? Jury's out on him still. Nix? LH bench player. THAT IS ALL. Ruf? Great power potential. Too soon to say. That's not a lot to bank on.

AWH~ You talk about the Nats and their career years. You seem to forget the similarity between the Nats now and the

Phils of '07,'08, 09. They young and hungry. The Braves are still formidable. Yeah I agree, they got Upton but they still have holes too. Mc Cann's hurt for one.

Maybe a guy's coming via trade. Even though the options are not great, if they don't give up much at all, can't hurt. But I'm telling you, they can bring in another LH reliever (and that would be great) or whomever else. But if the offense doesn't support the pitching, it won't matter.

Just because both of you don't agree with me, it doesn't mean I'm wrong. Doesn't mean I'm right either. My views are different than yours. If Howard, Utley and Doc come back healthy, they could win 10 more games than '12 (91). Does either of you think that's enough to get in?

AWH~ I always interested in what you have to say.

Ed sprung Urbina.

Lineup protection is very over-rated and a near fiction. If guys are on base batters produce. If its first and third with one out, first and second, bases loaded and usually just a runner on first, too a righty cannot walk Howard I do not care who his hitting behind him. Sure, there are some obvious pitch-arounds and the occasional intentional walk. These are less significant than the occasions when pressure is on the pitcher to get the batter out due to runners on base.

Ed sprung Urbina

Huh? Or is that some kind of anagram we are supposed to figure out?

And he's throwing 90MPH!
Do the Phils still own the rights to him?

Line up protection and WAR are made up by Forest fairies.

I wondered about the rights. Wade may know.

Ah. Urbina was granted free agency before he was incarcerated.

We could get him back by offering MM as his new poolboy.

Sure, Raul looks pretty good now that he doesn't cost $10.5 million/year & the Phillies OF has less combined power than your average Lithuanian goat cart. What's the point, though?

Sorry, but signing guys like Raul and Polly for $2.75 million is just plain dumb. A waste of money, in other words. It can't be that there aren't younger players who can help a team as well or better for significantly less money.

MG- do you have a quote or a source from Young or the Rangers on any of that info?

From the last thread, DPatrone: "But Amaro didn't get the bat he wanted as we all know, because he didn't want to pay the dollars it took to do so. That's where his smugness comes in."

What the heck does this mean? You and MG must be hitting the egg nog together today. How does his "smugness" play into that at all?

It isn't Amaro that controls the payroll. It's ownership. But that isn't even the point. When you say things like "He didn't get Upton because he's smug," that's why people think you are a complete fool. I don't think you are, btw. But you say some pretty bizarre stuff DPat.

Merry Christmas!

If u want rauuuuuul I say no. I would rather have "big puma".

Amaro is quite the smug cat. Though i dont think that had anything to do with him signing or not signing certain individuals. Theres a bunch of reasons why some we probably know. Most others we will never know why. PS....Try Coquito (spanish version of eggnong). It blows Eggnog out of the water.

If the Yankees are checking out Matt Diaz, why the not the Phiilies?

I'm such a homer I'm annoyed by all the people calling Amaro "smug" when they don't really know the guy, and I assume they think that b/c they simply want his job.

Merry Christmas everyone.

Matt d was brought up, but the BL committee shot it down.

Thanks Ice. You too as well.

He's been called smug many times in the media. I know ownership controls the dollars but when you set out to do something and don't, you can come off as being arrogant, meaning "we'll take you if you want to play for what we want to pay" etc.

Now I don't know if that really happens of course, but don't you think it odd they've haven't signed any offensive player they've been linked to? I mean sure, maybe they didn't get the top guys (who signed for outrageous amounts), but anybody, nobody? That just bothers me. I mean he's got to know he can't go ointo the season with what he's got, doesn't he.

I was watching Lunch Break with Rhea Hughes and Ben Davidson while I was in Florida (the weather was not great at the time) and it was mentioned that someone said to Rhea "do I really want to spend $8.00 for a beer to come and watch this OF?" or something like that.

I just find it hard to believe he couldn't get this need (as he said it) filled. But like I said, maybe help is coming via trade. Heck, I'd take Wells now if the Angels picked up the brunt of his $ if I could get him for a song. I would not take Soriano because getting him would be detrimental to Ruf. He deserves a chance.

Even Hairston on 1-year deal @ 2.5 to 3.0. I mean that would more than double his 2012 salary. He could play all 3 OF positions would be a better option than Nix. Maybe I do post some dunb things here, I dunno. But at least I'm speaking from my heart. With all the great things this bunch has done, I just don't want it to be over just yet.

Once agian, to all of the posters out there in cyberland, wishing you the most joyous of all Christmases and/or Happy Hanukkah! I hope that you and all of your families stay safe. Let's all remember what Christmas really is. It's really not about RAJ finding a bat underneath his Christmas tree. Peace, out.

Clout: I'm not saying that the Rule 5 kid should make the team, but judging by recent history, I expect that he will.

Michael Martinez. Enough said.


Ed sprung Urbina

Huh? Or is that some kind of anagram we are supposed to figure out?


Ed sprung Urbina

Rubens A Pud Ring

Do I win something?

Merry Christmas BL 50 till P and C report.

Bowlcut, you win my admiration. I hope that's enough.

Merry Christmas, all.

"You made an assertion: the team, as presently comprised, is better than the team which went 34-25."


Actually, bap, you're incorrect. what I posted was:

"TTI is correct, right now this team is better than the one that ended the season - the one that finished 35-24...".

If you're going to quote me and take issue with my opinions, at least have the common courtesy to quote me accurately. Should have been simple for a smart guy like you to do so, no? Dummy.

So, bap, first of all, Merry Christmas!

And, Merry Christmas to all!

Maybe I'm missing something because I'm struggling to find any difference between the following 2 statements:

"the team, as presently comprised, is better than the team which went 34-25."

"this team is better than the one that ended the season - the one that finished 35-24...".

Merry Christmas!

bap, you're the only guy I know who can't make a distinction between "35-24" and "34-25".

But, then again, you're a lawyer.

Merry Christmas!!!

awh has become a bit of a prick. Damn shame, because I used to like reading his posts.

All I want for Christmas is for one of Ruf/Brown/Mayberry to have a monster season. I am cheering for Domo, because of how down everyone is on him.

Merry Christmas Beerleaguer!

Fatalotti: "awh has become a bit of a prick."

ROTFLMAO! This from a poster who constantly butts in to exchanges between other posters solely to make prickish statements!

Merry Christmas anyway, but when I see hypocrisy that monumental I can't help but note it.

clout: Exactly my problem with Fatalotti most of the time.


DPatrone: I would venture the lineup we get is Rollins, Young, Utley, Howard, Ruiz (when done with his suspension), Brown, Ruf, Revere.

My issue is this: Spending money on a big corner outfield bat may have been a bad move this off-season. I love Swisher, and of course Hamilton is a top tier player. Problem is- we have 2013 and then a lot of roster turnover going forward. That doesn't mean we go from a contender to a non-contender. It means that there will be holes to fill. I would rather Aamro (or whomever) has the money to fill those holes in those off-seasons. Ross and Upton are both good players but have holes in their game. I don't know that either of them would've been a franchise block in 2 years when we need a guy. That is why I like the Revere trade more over time. He is a good defensive center fielder whose bat seems to be steadily improving. He is under team control for a while and should be a nice piece going forward along with the pitching we have. Should Brown and/or Ruf develop then we are sitting in a nice spot at quite a few positions. That was why I am not in favor of just giving out big money here. For better or worse, we will know what we have in Brown and Ruf going forward. That is a good thing.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays BL! Be safe and enjoy this time with your loved ones.

Merry Christmas to all!

(even you Fatti!) :)

Merry Christmas Raul!

See you in October.

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