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« Phillies must remain focused on stabilizing the eighth | Main | Phillies best-case scenario: Bourn, Willingham, Youk »

Tuesday, December 04, 2012

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TTI: Well, one major difference would be that those guys are actually worth their money.

Wait, you just moved the goalposts. You said that salary inhibits other moves. There are 3 other players making over $20 million. Regardless of performance, wouldn't their salaries also preclude the team from making moves?

What talk?

It's been all over Twitter the last couple of days, particularly since the Upton/Lee rumors started (and were quashed by Amaro in an interview) and Victorino signed with the Red Sox.

Jack: I agree about Vic, I just thought teams would be shying away from him much more this offseason, but apparently his stock barely dropped at all. He was rumored to have about 5-6 competitive offers all on the table, so he was far from anyone's last resort.

Violation on Seidman for listing Brody Colvin as an intriguing arm to anyone around the league.

As crappy as Vic's bat was last year (for him), there's good reason to think he'll rebound. He had a 94 wRC+, which for a CF, isn't THAT terrible, but if he gets even a little bit of his pop back, he's right back to being a 100-105 wRC+ player, which is what he's always been (2011 notwithstanding).

But to ignore the contributions at the plate for a second, he DID steal 39 bags last year against just 6 caught stealing, his best season on the bags since 2007. And he's still considered a plus defender in CF.

Maybe $13M is at the limit of what he's worth, but for 3 years for a guy who's going to be 32, and had 6 straight years of plus defense, plus baserunning, and 5 of 6 of his year's he was an above average hitter for a CF (and league-wide). It's a good gamble.

Apparently Schierholtz has "generated plenty of interest since hitting the free agent market." (MLBTR)

I understand if the Phils didn't see him as a long-term solution, but shouldn't they have at least tendered him a qualifying offer? Could have then used him in a trade or worst case, gotten a comp pick if he declined the offer.

I agree with everyone that Ellsbury's 2011 season could be an anomaly, especially the .552 slugging and .230 ISO. However, I don’t think it’s absurd to think that he could reproduce .300/.360/.425. He approached those numbers prior to the 2011 breakout season as a 25-year older in his third season. Injuries have definitely perturbed his full maturation, but I think .300/.360/.425 is an expected estimate for production for the next 3 years. Having said that, I think injury is the biggest concern, making him a potentially undervalued player. If the Phillies could get him for Worley and a throw-in prospect (i.e. Gillies), I’d pull the trigger.

Andy: That offensive line for Ellsbury would make him a better offensive player than Michael Bourn.

The issue is you're only getting Ellsbury for one season. You can't give up much in prospects for that.

"I understand if the Phils didn't see him as a long-term solution, but shouldn't they have at least tendered him a qualifying offer?"

Schierholtz might be generating a decent amount of interest as a free agent, but I doubt he would generate even the slightest interest if teams actually had to give up a player to get him. Plus, even if you could squeeze a player or prospect out of someone, it couldn't possibly be anyone who was even the slightest bit good. The "upside" just isn't worth the risk of tendering him a contract & possibly being stuck with him again (a prospect that is truly horrifying).

I know Schierholtz wouldn't generate any trade interest on his own, but he could have been used as a throw in on a package.

And FWIW, if they had ended up stuck w/ him, I wouldn't have called it "truly horrifying." Desired? No, but not the worst thing ever.

If healthy (and that's the major dilemma here), Ellsbury, in my opinion, is a better offensive player than Bourn is. My opinion, however, may be biased in that I've lived in Boston since 2003 and have seen Ellsbury play more than I've seen Bourn play. I agree Ellsbury's free agency situation clouds everything (and he's represented by Boras), but the Phillies have almost no leverage as the options get fewer and fewer. There's no way that Amaro, whose entire GM career is dependent on the performance of aging veterans that are unlikely to reproduce their apex level of performance, is going into next season with Mayberry as his CFer.

"I know Schierholtz wouldn't generate any trade interest on his own, but he could have been used as a throw in on a package."

Many players or prospects can be used as a throw-in to a trade package. You don't need to pay $1.5 to $2M to a guy so you can use him as a throw-in to a trade later on. Also, I disagree about the downside of having to bring back Schierholtz for another year. Having 2 left-handed hitters on your bench with the identical skill set would be completely idiotic. How many times last year did it come back to bite the Phillies that they didn't have a single viable RH bat on the bench?

Getting Ellsbury for Worley would be a good deal. Ellsbury is a big name, a good player, and probably cheap for his production level. If he is good, Phillies can recoup a draft pick or just pay his crazy asking price.

I have some opinion with Granderson. Neither solves the "RH power" issue which is still why I want Youkilis. Still not willing to leave that 'role' to Ruf and/or Mayberry. Ludwick would seem like a possible choice for power righty.

Not sure who Phillies would target as a replacement in the rotation because it would certainly cost more than Worley. I'd figure they'd try some old injured reclamation project.

I doubt they'd give up Ellsbury for just Worley but that'd be a great solution to our CF problem.

Ellsbury for Worley works for me. However, it's my guess the Red Sox want to see if Worley comes back as a 'called strike three' machine before they acted.

I actually like RAJ's absence of moves so far. Let's not break the bank -- or what's left of it -- for soon-to-be aging speedster Michael Bourn. Something might shake out on the cheap for 3rd/CF. The Phils need a break.

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