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Thursday, December 06, 2012


MINUS 86 RUNS! This would only make sense if he gave us the lead in his first AB, and was immediately replaced w/Galvis.

On second thought, thats "only" 6.6 runs per year, but that number is probably trending upward. A few staredowns from Lee and Cole would put a damper on the clubhouse chemistry.

He can't be much worse than Wigginton was at 3rd

I've been wanting them to get young for a few years now. Hes an instant upgrade at 3rd and his bat would fit nicely in the line up. Absolutely a better pick up than youk and I hope this is true.

Meh but how about Julio Borbon for CF? He's under control until 2018, Texas apparently likes Gentry more, and he plays good defense. Bats left handed, but lots of upside. Just hasn't quite harnessed it yet outside of spring training and a great little stint in 2009.

Didn't really watch him last year, can anyone diagnose his down season? He was a tad unlucky (BABIP, HR/FB) and his power dropped -- fewer doubles and homers, probably mostly because he hit way way more groundballs than is normal for him.

Depends on the details, of course, but I could get behind his acquisition, if for nothing else than to finally have a healthy everyday third baseman. This would also seem to indicate they're even higher on Asche than previously thought, as Young looks to be a stopgap for only one year instead of two [he says before the five-year, $100M extension].

Edit: questionable defense

"He can't be much worse than Wigginton was at 3rd" - a ringing endorsement.

MG: Yes I did go to games in September last year and maybe I went on a good night but it was not 60-70% full as you say.

Anyway though- my post had more to do with you already creating conspiracy theories about the Phillies finances and how they allocate them. Maybe they won't make a movie but perhaps they can get Oliver Stone to voiceover the video at the end of the year. Or Jesse Ventura can use your theory for an episode of his show.

I've been wanting them to get young for a few years now. Hes an instant upgrade at 3rd and his bat would fit nicely in the line up. Absolutely a better pick up than youk and I hope this is true.
Posted by: Jd | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 03:26 AM

Let's analyze:

Youk: 34
Young: 36
Win: Youk

2009-2011 OPS+
Youk: 141
Young: 118
Win: Youk

2012 OPS+
Youk: 99
Young: 78
Win: Youk

Career UZR/150 @ 3rd base
Youk: 0.6
Young: -9.2

Youk: ~$11 M/yr for maybe 2-3 years
Young: ~$8 M this year and a prospect
Win: eh....Young

Look, opinions are great, and you're more than entitled, but did you even bother looking at their numbers before claiming that Young is a "better pick up" than Youk?

Give me Youk every time.

One thing I will claim in Young's favor (over Youk) is the lack of recent injury history. But at 36 years old, coming off a crappy year, I pretty much feel like the guy has inherent injury history already.

Also, Polanco didn't come to the Phillies with a pronounced recent injury history either, having averaged about 146 games a year in the 3 years prior to joining the Phils. We all saw how that turned out. Old guys just get injured more often, and Young is old. So I think the injury difference between the two is almost a wash, but Young wouldn't come with as much of a long-term commitment.

Still, the Phils want to get as good as possible for THIS year, and Youk is more likely to make them better THIS year than Young is.

Phillies linked to Ben Revere. Um, no thanks. Wasn't a terrific minor leaguer, and hasn't done anything at the ML level yet to make me believe that he'll be great.

How much more than 2 years, $16 million could Youkilis possibly cost to make this even a viable option for Philly?

Sorry, 1 year, $8 million, not 2/16...for some reason I thought Young still had 2 years left on his contract.

Revere's upside is to hit a very empty .300 with basicaly Pierre level power. He had 19 XBH (12 2B, 6 3B) last year in 553 PA. His only saving grace is that he will steal 40 bags to somewhat make up for it and he basically doesnt have a platoon split.

He'd be an upgrade for leadoff hitter if nothing else.

NEPP, if he hits his ceiling. He has a 79 OPS+ in 1064 ML plate appearances.

Bill James projects him to have a .294 wOBA this year.

And his career 80% SB success rate just doesn't seem to be enough to make up for the offensive failings.

He does seem to be a good defensive CF, though. Still, we need a player who can make an impact with the bat, and I don't think a great defensive/no bat CF is a good fit for this team, right now.

I'd be shocked if he had an OPS of .700 or above.

His career best A ball was .734...which he posted in AA.

He is cheap though so maybe the plan would be to trade for Revere to play CF and sign Hamilton for RF.

I could support such a plan.

A young major league reliever did we sign one along the line that I'm not aware of? If we had one why didn't we use him last year?

Technically, Michael Schwimer is now a young MLB reliever....just a pretty crappy one. We have plenty of "young MLB relievers"...they just all kinda suck.

You make a good case in your favor and then you hit with this line:

", I pretty much feel like the guy has inherent injury history already. "

So we are now arguing against guys because of "inherent" injury risks? That's really kinda silly.

Someone tell me this offseason is NOT going to be Young and Bourne. UGH. We def got third place in the nl east locked down.

I can imagine this year's Nashville scribble notes for the 2013-14 offseason. 'BL clamoring for Youkilis'.

Just a small break from the Phillies news to discuss this newsbit from the wires.

"Bowden adds (also via Twitter) that the Mariners' reasoning for being in these talks is to use their prospects to ensure that Upton lands with Texas, which will open the door for them to sign Josh Hamilton. The Mariners are reportedly in serious talks with Hamilton, who considers them his fallback should he not sign with Texas."

Let's assume Bowden is correct on this. The front office of the Mariners have a master plan here. They are going to use their trade chips to ensure that a divisional rival can pick up a 25 year old right fielder, entering the prime of his career, capable of a 30 home run/20 stolen base season, and fills a massive lineup hole for they can sign a soon to be 32 year old, coming off a career high in home runs, to be their left fielder for probably somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-25 million a year?

I understand in business sometimes you need to make some tough deals to ensure profitability, but the Mariners are more than a big free agent signing away from contending and they would be softening the blow of losing Hamilton of one of the teams they will need to jump over in the division. That doesn't make a lot of sense.

TTI, yes, I feel that 36 year old infielders have inherent injury risks. Just my opinion. I get that Youk has the bigger and more recent injury risk, but to act like Young has NO injury risk would be mistaken.

In my opinion.

But, as you stated, that's not integral to my case against Young. Just wanted to point it out.

TTI: Yeah, that's about the dumbest thing I've ever heard. I don't know how that can make sense.

If it were any other team than Seattle, I wouldn't buy it but their FO is pretty bad.

Dear Michael Young, please use me.

Also saw last night that with the O's signing McLouth, the Red Sox signing Victorino, and Pagan back to the Giants the market for Nick Swisher seems to have become the Phillies, Indians, and Mariners. Swisher is there for the taking if they give him a legitimate offer because why would he choose the Mariners or Indians over them?

I know I have made the case before for the guy and my want for him is borderline obsessive but seriously- he is what we need. Let me make my case again.

He is going to be 32 this season and over his career his season average is 28 home runs, 90 RBI's with a .256/.361/.467/.828 slash line and a 118 OPS+. Yes he played the last couple seasons in the launch pad in New York but out in Oakland he hit 78 home runs over the 3 full seasons he played. He plays the corner outfield, can play first, switch hits, and has hit 21 or more home runs in 8 straight seasons. He also doesn't miss much time for injuries.

I also saw this stat on the Baltimore Sun write-up about Swisher: "only four players have hit 20 homers, driven in at least 80 RBIs, have 30 or more doubles and posted a .800 or higher on-base-plus slugging percentage in each of the last four seasons. They are Robinson Cano, Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Swisher."

Furthermore to me, if you sign Swisher and bat him third behind Utley and ahead of Howard (slotting Ruiz fifth) you are putting three guys around Howard with OBP's of-.376/.361/.363- which when added with Howard's power makes the middle of that line-up pretty deadly for a pitcher.

On top of that Swisher seems to be a boisterous guy with a ton of personality that would work well in the clubhouse and in the media.

Seriously- sign the guy!!

Dear Michael Young, please use me.

Posted by: 10 and 5 rights | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 08:08 AM

My guess is that if talks are as "advanced" as they say they are, Young has already signed off on the idea of coming to the Phillies....

Uhhhhgggghhhh... Michael Young? After seeing Placido Polanco break down last year, this can't be good.

Regardless, if RAJ can land Young at a HUGE discount, maybe Young likes the idea of regular playing time and agrees to come here. One last run at a ring? Regardless, Young's defense metrics at 3rd are horrific.

I need to visit Fangraphs more often; not knowing how lousy Young was defensively, I'd probably be all over this "deal".

TTI: I like Swisher too. I said last night I would be happy to sign him and trade for Fowler.

I did not imagine Michael Young being involved.

***Regardless, Young's defense metrics at 3rd are horrific.***

Young is probably slightly better than Wiggy was and slightly worse than Greg Dobbs with the glove.

Mariners in serious talks with Hamilton. Hahaha. Doesn't that guy know that Seattle is where hitters' careers go to die?

Well, we all said this team is too old. Rube heard us loud and clear. With this one potential move, the Phils got young.

At least Polly was a good fielder. I guess the questions for Young are can he stay healthy and can he still hit? I feel like we could do just as well by rolling the dice on Frandsen and Galvis at 3B as with Young. But hopefully I'm wrong.

***Mariners in serious talks with Hamilton. Hahaha. Doesn't that guy know that Seattle is where hitters' careers go to die?***

Pretty happening drug scene in Seattle putting gasoline on the fire for him to play there.

I don't mind Young for a few million bucks and some minor leaguers. There aren't any 3B available that would really be worth it via trade or FA. If the Rangers are willing to eat majority of his salary and only take a middling prospect or two, then I'm ok with it. It's a lot easier to cut bait/bench Young if he's only making $4M, than if he was making $16M.

To me, for the right price, this deal makes sense.

They'll resign Polly to be his late-innings caddy.

Jack: This is like the 3rd or 4th time we are in agreement in something in the past couple months. It's getting scary now!

I'm not a huge fan of a deal for Young BUT, if he only costs a middling prospect or two, and the Rangers eat salary then I guess I can be okay with the move. He would be a stopgap, he doesn't really have an injury history, and it would almost assure Mini Mart never sees the big league team unless something drastic happens.

Young looks a lot more attractive for $4 million than $8 million. $8 million limits them on what other guys they can bring in.

From last night's thread:

An OF of Ruf in LF, Ichiro in CF and Brown in RF would arguably be the worst in MLB history.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, December 05, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Um...Arguably?!? No, that would easily be the worst outfield in MLB history...even if it was Ichiro from 2002, that would be one of the worst OFs in MLB history let alone 39 years young Ichiro.

NEPP: Agree with your 8:48. The Young deal only makes sense if they are paying a small portion of his salary. They can't handcuff the budget with $8M going to a 39 year old coming off arguably the worst season of his career.

Young is 36 but he might as well be 39 given his offensive decline and defense.

And by 39, I mean 36.

Damn you, NEPP! You beat me to that correction by a matter of seconds!

Young from 2009-2011: .313/.361/.476/.836, 118 OPS+

His BAPIP last year was .299, had a line of .333/.371/.423/.794 against LHP, and while his LD% is down, it was the same it was in 2010, and he bounced back to have a great season in 2011.

Do I think you're nuts to argue that Young would be a better bet than Youkilis? Yes. Do I think Young can duplicate 2011? No. Do I think he might be completely cooked after last year's abysmal showing? Yes.

Do I think getting him for a very low price and a C-level prospect is better than rolling with Frandsen and/or Galvis at 3B? HELL YES

Also, sounds like the Mariners want Hamilton.

If he goes to Seattle, the suitors willing to give Bourn what MG says he is going to get is down to zero.

***Damn youThank-you, NEPP! You beat me to that correction by a matter of seconds!

Posted by: R.Billingsly | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 09:01 AM


LOL...your welcome.

Yeah, IF they could get Texas to eat almost all of Young's salary AND just take a couple of "middling" prospects, I'd be for it, too.

But WHY IN THE WORLD would Texas do that????

If you are Texas and are looking to trade Young, you are likely doing it for one of two reasons:

1) To cut salary, in which case you're not going to be taking on most of the salary if you give him up.

2) To take advantage of a weak FA class at 3B and try to get an interesting prospect or two.

The following option doesn't seem to make sense for the Rangers (though the Phillies would probably love it)

3) Not shed much payroll (i.e. take on $12 of the remaining $16 M he's owed, and get fringe, boring prospects that aren't much better than what you already have in your system.

In other words, if Young comes here, the Phillies are taking on at least half his salary AND giving up a fairly valuable prospect.

And if that's the case, just spend money on Youk.

Fata- Texas is apparently willing to pay more than half his salary, and want a bullpen prospect in the mold of Lindblom, Diekman, DeFratus, Schwimer.

Other than DeFratus, I wouldn't blink an eye at losing one of those guys.

The chances of Michael Young having another 2011 type season are almost zero.

Go look at his was one of those late career fluke seasons that guys sometimes get that are pretty much never repeated. It was driven almost entirely by a massive jump in his LD rate to 26% (well above his career average and average for the past 4-5 seasons). Since 2008, he's pretty much hit LDs around 22% of the time...he was at 18% in 2010 and 26% in 2011 and 22% the other 3 years.

***I wouldn't blink an eye at losing one of those guys***

Neither would I...if that's what it takes to get it down to $4 million, go for it, Rube.

So Texas is willing to pay $10 M for Young to play elsewhere just to save $6 M and get their hands on a fungible reliever.

Not doubting that you're correct, but I'll believe it when I see it. Sounds dumb to me, from Texas' standpoint.

***Not doubting that you're correct, but I'll believe it when I see it. Sounds dumb to me, from Texas' standpoint.***

Not if they think he's completely cooked and blocking a prospect. In that case, they're thankful to get any return and save a bit of cash to get Greinke or Hamilton.

Fata- I didn't believe it when I read it either. They must really just want him gone and off the team, period, no matter what they have to do.

But yeah, I'm with you, and I'll believe it when I see the players/money exchanged.

Yeah, IF they could get Texas to eat almost all of Young's salary AND just take a couple of "middling" prospects, I'd be for it, too.

But WHY IN THE WORLD would Texas do that????


Maybe not almost all of the salary but the report from the Dallas Morning News was this: "the Rangers would eat more than half of Young's $16MM salary to facilitate the trade, which would likely send a young Major League reliever and a low-level prospect back to the Rangers in exchange for the 36-year-old Young."

More than half means it will cost the Phillies less than 8 million. No idea what that number might be overall or what prospects they want but it is not as if people are pulling these ideas out of the blue Fatalotti

$6 million might be more than you think to them. They were at $121 million in payroll last year and they're currently at $108 million in obligations for 2013. If they do end up signing Hamilton or Greinke or both, that $6 million saved could seriously help them. $6 million for their payroll level is more like $10 million to us.

Texas isn't the Yankees (or Phillies), but they aren't a small market team, either. Is clearing $6 M in the books so crazily important that they're willing to eat $10 M just to get rid of Young?

Either way, unless the deal is heavily favorable to the Phils, I still say no to this guy from an on-the-field standpoint. Fact remains, I think this year is the MOST likely year for the Phillies to make a run at the World Series again, and for THIS year, I like my chances with Youkilis at 3B then Young.

TTI, never said anyone was pulling anything out of the blue. I was doubting the sources.

As it is too, according to MLBTR:

1.) Jayson Stark reports that Young is showing no signs of okaying a trade.

2.) According to Scott Miller the Phillies aren't in on Swisher. Ugh!

TTI: I must say, you're starting to convince me that Swisher would be a very good fit here. Unfortunately, rumor is that the Phils aren't interested. Then again it's just a rumor, so there's hope...

Iceman, I agree w/ your summation of MYoung: not as good as Youks, but better than GalvisDsen.

MYoung only makes sense if TX pays more than half, like $12 of the $16M. Otherwise, just pay up a bit more for Youks.

How can they not be at least kicking the tires on Swisher? Question, how is his defense?

So the Yankees apparently have a 1 year $12mil offer on the table to Youkilis

Two stats on Michael Young:

I pulled up the FanGraphs rankings of UZR/150 for 3Bs with 2000+ innings played over the last 4 years. Young's rating is -9.2. That puts him 26th out of 28, ahead of only Mark Reynolds and Chris Johnson. Most of those innings were in 2009-10 - he's mainly been at 1B or DH the last two years. In other words, he's probably worse now than those numbers indicate. If you're going to go that low on defense, just sign Mark Reynolds and at least you'll get 30 HRs to make up for the many runs he'll cough up with the glove.

Young's ISO (isolated power) numbers for the last four years:

.196, .160, .136, .093

That trend's not exactly hard to spot. Dude's toast.

And for those asking why Texas would pay most of Young's salary for a fungible reliever - they're trying to get rid of him so that Ron Washington doesn't keep playing him.

Why? Some of you might have noticed that the Rangers ended up 1 game behind the A's in the AL West, forcing them into a wild-card playoff game that they lost.

Michael Young posted a -1.4 WAR last season.

In other words, if you believe that number, playing Michael Young cost the Rangers the division title.


NO to Michael Young!!!

For years, Michael Young has been viewed as a star by those who don't really think about baseball and an average (and declining) player by the analytically-minded.

I'm not surprised he has drawn Amaro's attention.

Also on Young:

2009: 7.9
2010: 7.0
2011: 6.8
2012: 5.1

Please don't let this trade happen.

Why? Some of you might have noticed that the Rangers ended up 1 game behind the A's in the AL West, forcing them into a wild-card playoff game that they lost.

Michael Young posted a -1.4 WAR last season.


That is some specious logic

Young reminds me of when the Phillies signed Gregg Jefferies years back. Stats were deceptive earlier in his career and then he came to Phils and the story ended.

This news is actually kind of sad and pathetic. This is what Ruben has been spending his time on in Nashville? With any luck at all, Young will veto the trade and save him from himself. If it even gets that far.

I already made an argument for Young at the right price in terms of prospects and salary commitment.

Wigginton played ~90 games in the IF and ~15 in the OF. Young has hit .338/.382/.474 against LHP over the last 3 years and .333/.371/.423 last year. His OPS against RHP is ~ .750 over the last 3 years. Mix him in at 3B and in the OF and sometimes at 1B in the same Wigginton mixed in (although replace 1B and 3B).

But Young is 36 and was terrible last year. He could be terrible again. Don't pay anything much for this guy and don't commit so much in payroll to him that he keeps you from adding a legit CF of OF bat. $6M and Cloyd or something? Sounds good.

I'd prefer Youk but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Indians hand Youk 2/$25 or something.

Michael Young: better than a Frandsen/Galvis platoon. Other positives? Umm... maybe he has a bounceback year??

Young also hasn't hit on the road in 3 years. His BAbip is over 30 points higher at home than the road.

Still fine with Young for 80 starts and super utility type role but don't give up anything to do it.

Sophost: do you really expect Manual to shift him around like that? If Howard is healthy he's starting 160 games at 1B. And with Ruf/Brown/JMJ in the OF, along with whoever else they pick up, I can't see much time outside of 3B for Young.

So am I reading this correctly that some here wouldn't even take him for free (i.e. $4-5 million and a fungible relief pitcher)?

That's just nuts. I'd like Youk, too, but doing this is so much better than resigning themselves to Galvis/Frandsen. And he might even bounce back a bit. It fills a hole without breaking the bank. This means, to me, that paying for a quality set-up man would now be in play.

"Michael Young: better than a Frandsen/Galvis platoon. Other positives? Umm... maybe he has a bounceback year??"

That's just the picture we're dealing with at 3B. Maybe the Phils have an offer for Youk ~2/18-20 and are waiting it out. But then Youk gets an offer from the Indians/Yankees for something crazy like 2/25 or ever 1/15.

Would you prefer the Phils do nothing at 3B? Sign Youk for a high AAV? In that context, Young isn't a terrible risk to take provided we're talking about a payroll figure that doesn't change the remaining calculus too much.

Iceman - Exactly!

Or maybe Young comes here next year, does nothing, signs with the Marlins in 2014 and bounces back.

I said this about Ichiro, but it's true about Michael Young as well. If this is your big move to make the team better, then why bother? Honestly, just sell. Young does nothing to get this team close to the 88-92 wins they need to make the playoffs. Is he better than Kevin Frandsen? One would assume, but sadly, probably not by all that much these days.

If Swisher is too expensive to sign, the Brewers have noted that Corey Hart could be available. I would seriously inquire about him. You can play him in the corner OF against righties, and at 1B against lefties and sit Howard (yeah, I know, never happen, but a man can dream).

Steve - If he hits okay (over .800 against LHP, over .700 against RHP) can see him getting 80 starts at 3B, 0-5 in LF, and spot starts/late inning tough LHP time at 1B (maybe 10 games). ... If there are any injuries he'll get more.

Sophist: If Young means you sign Bourn (or trade for a good CF) and get Uehara and add a RH power bat, then sure, it's fine, I guess.

If all you do is add Young and other minor parts, then there's no point to upgrading at all. You should just break it down and rebuild. Putting an 80-win team on the field is pointless.

Jack, ditto re: Ichiro and Young. My thoughts exactly.

Jack - Why would you assume this was the "big move?" The whole point in having them eat salary is to free up space to sign a CF/OF. If this is the only move it's a terrible move, but why would you think that?

I also think people don't realize the high chances of attrition/reversion for Frandsen. Guy was completely BAbiped fueled last year. It would surprise no one to see him OPS under .700 next year.

I know that Young is below average defensively.

But is he passable enough at SS to be the backup, and keep the likes of MiniMart and Galvis off the 25-man roster?

(Obviously, if JRoll were to be out for an extended period, a 'real' SS would need to be called up.)

"Sophist: If Young means you sign Bourn (or trade for a good CF) and get Uehara and add a RH power bat, then sure, it's fine, I guess."

Yeah, that's kind of the idea here. No one has even implied that this would be 'it.' Not sure where you're pulling that out of.

So we drafted Ender Wiggin in the Rule 5? At least we should have no issue with the Buggers in 2013.

And apparently there's a report that the Yanks offered Youk a 1/$12M deal. So I'd guess it would take 2/$20M at least to get him or a 1 year commitment over 1/$12M.

Here's his page...never played above A ball.

Young would play 3B every day. Don't kid yourself.

If we're down to looking longingly at Michael Young, why not instead pick up one of the non-tendered guys like Jack Hannahan - who's an excellent defensive 3B - or Ian Stewart, who hasn't put it together yet but has talent and is still young enough to have upside? Both guys are lefty hitters and can play multiple positions, so they'd be potential platoon partners for Frandsen.

Yanks supposedly offered Youkilis a 1 yr/$12M deal.

Young is a pretty terrible option but if the Rangers eat all but say $5-$6M of his salary & the Phils don't have to give up a MLB bullpen arm (Aumont, Bastardo), I guess it isn't a horrendous move. Just a big gamble I don't see panning out offensively or defensively.

Young won't block the deal either it was just reported.

Imagine he will be in red pinstripes either today or tomorrow.

Here's the problem for me: Young looks cooked. His peripherals have been trending in the wrong direction, and with Manuel coaching this team, if Young is healthy, he'll get 150 games at 3B this year. And though he may be better than Galvis or Frandsen, I still think he drags the team down this year.

And Iceman, if it really is only $4M and a fungible reliever, which Texas would just throw on top of the pile, sure go for it. But I'm highly skeptical that's all it would be. Young's offense and defense look like they'd be a real drain on the team next year, and I don't like the idea of simply going from a very negative player at a position to a slightly less negative player at that position.

NEPP - Good BB rate and can play CF (at least has played CF).

So am I reading this correctly that some here wouldn't even take him for free (i.e. $4-5 million and a fungible relief pitcher)?

Yes, because Cholly will play Young every day at 3B if he's available. You don't give a lunatic a loaded gun. Have you forgotten Mini-Mart?

He looks like an okay prospect, Sophist but keeping him on the 25 man might be rough. Though he cant possibly be worse than Mini Mart.

If the Phils do have to pick up half of Young's contract ($8M), I will have no idea why they didn't make a strong run at Chavez instead and use the $5M savings elsewhere.

Iceman: Well, then I'll get excited about the other moves when they happen. I mean, you're saying I'm crazy for thinking the Young move would be the only major move. But you're just as crazy for assuming it means all these other moves that haven't even been rumored except for Bourn. And one would think if the Phillies were going to sign Michael Bourn, it wouldn't really depend on whether they traded for Michael Young or not.

So until the other moves happen, I can only evaluate the Young deal in isolation, and not count the chickens before they hatch. And the Young deal in isolation would be pretty bad.

Maybe they did make Chavez an offer and he said no.

Its possible that guys simply dont want to play in Philly for whatever reason.

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