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Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Comments

I don't know why you would pay anything for Vernon Wells, or why you would want to give him at bats. If he were a free agent, I wouldn't mind a split contract minor league deal. But to commit $5-6m to him at his point seems foolhardy.

Yeah, the Howell thing seemed weird to me.

Bastardo is definitely going to be our key lefty in the bullpen. Even in last year's down year, here was his line against lefties:
.169/.255/.313, .569 OPS against in 95 PAs.

And I like what I've seen from Horst. He may not be "nasty," but here's his line vs. lefties:
.170/.250/.191, .441 OPS against in 52 PAs.

Horst only has 46 career innings, so we don't know what's sustainable, but he pitched very well last year.

I find it hard to believe that if a team agreed to pay say 6 million of Wells salary over the next 2 years that you would have to trade anything for him. The only thing harder to believe is that anyone would want him at all.

Phillies were said to be in on Sean Burnett, too. Bastardo may be on the trading block, but there is only deal that is left to make (corner OF).

Phillies cant afford to trade anymore prospects or lose picks, we are stuck with signing Cody Ross.

I find it hard to believe that if a team agreed to pay say 6 million of Wells salary over the next 2 years that you would have to trade anything for him.

Even Joe Savery? (Not that I want Wells one bit)

Amaro just figures that if he can't sign an OF bat he likes, he might use some additional funds on strengthening the bullpen/rotation by adding depth.

Certainly not a bad idea. The Phils don't have nearly as much depth at LH relieves at people think. Savery's at best a 'AAAA' guy. Diekman is subpar as a situational reliever because of huge issues with command. Valdes isn't a bad reliever but has reverse splits vs LHB.

Basically comes down the Phils not having confidence in Horst duplicating what he did last year or that the Phils are possibly penciling in Horst for the long-man out of the pen.

It's re-tread time! This always works.

2013 bullpen:
Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
De Fratus
Aumont
Horst

From that perspective, there's an extra spot in the bullpen. Horst as the long man? I suppose, but I prefer a real swing man (I think Valdes would be a better choice).

What would one year of Corey Hart cost us in a trade? Ethan Martin and a warm OF body? Would that be acceptable?

If you can't get a difference making OF might as well try and squeeze another win or two from the bullpen...

A Vernon Wells trade is an awful idea. Hopefully it went no further then after asking on Borjous (sp?) RAJ was offered Wells and promptly hung up.

Am I safe in assuming that Kendry Morales's defense is utterly awful? Because the Angels are said to be shopping him and, at least from an offensive standpoint, he would be a nice fit. I like his bat considerably better than Trumbo's.

Rodeo: "If you can't get a difference making OF might as well try and squeeze another win or two from the bullpen..."

Exactly. The only 'difference makes' left on the market within the Phils apparent price range are in the bullpen at this point in the offseason.

I like Matt Lindstrom as an addition. I wouldn't be against adding another lefty either. I like Bastardo, but having another can't hurt and Horst is a wildcard to me even after a promising 2012.

BAP: Trumbo at least has some innings in corner OF, Kendry has only 5 starts there in his career.

I don't think going after someone like Howell means anything about Bastardo. A good left-hander is worth having regardless of if you already have one.

I find it odd that the people who screamed that the biggest hole was the bullpen would now have a problem trying to add another good relief pitcher. Mike Adams doesn't a dominant bullpen make.

Yeah if Morales can play any OF at all, he's definitely worth a phone call to LAA. He was a beast in '09 (last full yr before "The Celebration.")

Do people have a problem with adding Howell? I think the interest has surprised people given the current bullpen arms, the possible cap on spending this offseason and the holes we still have to fill. But I haven't sensed a great del of "We don't want Howell!"

And Bastardo is pretty good against righties (.659 OPS against) as well as lefties (.619 OPS against).

It makes sense to have a true LOOGY in the bullpen. Would you rather have Howell or Diekman? I'd probably take Howell, and I like Diekman.

***Phillies cant afford to trade anymore prospects or lose picks, we are stuck with signing Cody Ross.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, December 19, 2012 at 01:38 PM

***

This isn't me. If you're using my username to post comments here...go fvck yourself.

As tough as it is to swallow, we're going to go into the season with more questions than answers.I'de rather try to answer the questions "in house" rather than pick up some "used parts" from the store. What's left out there on the F.A. market isn't what the team needs, either for money, character, or talent reasons. Trade deadline anyone?

I found this line by Corey to be devastating and decisive, "Wells' last good year was 2010...."

One knock on Morales, aside from him not playing the OF, is as a switch hitter his weak side is vs LHP, which kind of hurts us in our search for a power RHB.


NEPP: oddly enough, your imposter "sounded" just like you.

Lorecore: thanks for that tidbit on Morales, I didn't take the time to look up his splits. So yeah that pretty much defeats the purpose. Oh well.

This season feels like a loss.

That last post wasn't really me. Oh wait. Yes, it was.

0-162

One thing that definitely sucks is that whenever the Phils seemed to have holes/weaknesses, I would always be relieved when looking at our rivals. But now the Nats future has arrived and the Braves actually didnt choke in September.

Can't wait for the Revere-Young-Utley-Howard-Rollins-Wells-Mayberry-Ruiz-Hamels lineup on opening day!!! Woo!

I think you just have to roll with Ruf in LF. Maybe his D will be subpar, but could it really be worse than Burrell was. I believe if he gets enough at bats, he'll hit at least .275 with 20+ HRS. He is not a swing and miss hitter, he has an approach and will not be a flop. I think Charlie believes this, despite what Ruben says. I've seen enough of Dom Brown and believe that Ruf will be a better major leaguer, but these guys are both dirt cheap. Give them the full season to prove what they are. This team is going nowhere without a rebound from the pitching staff, Howard, and Utley anyway. With what's left on the market, what's the risk? Thoughts?

No no. It will be

5-157


Tyler Cloyd will go 5-2 in his spot starts even though his ERA will be 4.92 but he'll get uncanny run support, thus convincing a raft of posters of his gutsiness and that he learned "how to win" and he should be pencilled in as the #3 in 2014. Thus insuring multiple years worth of insults between his supporters and detractors.

How lame is it that someone made an imposter of myself.

Guys, be careful with any mention of the comment system. If we're not careful the site will get overhauled and it'll cease to be Beerleaguer and turn into some terrible Facebookified new system that we'll all hate. I'm serious. It's going to happen anyway with the Comcast thing.

How lame, indeed

All free men, wherever they may live, are NEPP, and, therefore, as a free man, I take pride in the words "Ich bin ein NEPP!

(The Kennedy riff was me)

Another cow to joing Brown Mayberry Nix ? Probably not !

When I read and hear talk about a washed-up Vernon Wells, it reminds me of the stench of 2012. Change all their last names, such as Wigginton, Qualls, now Wells and a few others, to "Time's Over" and it applies.

Mark me down as willing to take a chance on a Darrin Ruf than waste a roster spot on dried prunes like Wells and Wigginton.

phils should sign matt bush. that will rezlly lock down the pitching staff.

Vernon Wells?

Are you f88888g serious?

Someone posted in an earlier thread that they wouldn't take Wells unless LAA paid his entire salary AND threw Mike Trout into the deal.

I'm not that drastic, but since we're talking about someone who put up an 86 OPS+ the last two seasons, AND he's a year older, he's essentially a bench player at this point - at best.

One, what do you give up in a trade to get a bench player, and, two, how much are you willing to pay him?

Answer to the above:

One: a fringe prospect or another bench player

Two: The MLB minimum.

Therefore, what awh, were he RAJ, would be willing to give up for Wells:

One of Orr or minimart, and LAA pick up his entire salary except the MLB minimum.

Forget about history or past performance or perception of the player because of a mega-contract, right now I wouldn't trade Laynce Nix for Vernon Wells straight up.

"Can't wait for the Revere-Young-Utley-Howard-Rollins-Wells-Mayberry-Ruiz-Hamels lineup on opening day!!! Woo!"

Substitute Humberto Quintero for the suspended Carlos Ruiz and you're probably right on the money.

Brown and Ruf (and a double platoon using them along with Nixberry) would hold much more upside than Vernon Wells would, and possibly even a higher floor. Plus, they're already on their team and need a chance to prove they can be full time outfielders. It is already unlikely that the Phillies make the playoffs in 2013 and Vernon Wells, Cody Ross,etc. do not significantly change that fact, so why not see if Brown and/or Ruf develop into something useful in 2014 and beyond? Vernon Wells just being on the team would make us worse in both the long and short term, but the fact we would pay anything at all (in $ or players)for his services sickens me.

"Someone posted in an earlier thread that they wouldn't take Wells unless LAA paid his entire salary AND threw Mike Trout into the deal."

I think that was me, but you are misstating my hyperbole a bit. I actually said I wouldn't take Wells EVEN IF the Angels paid his entire salary, threw Trout into the trade, and insisted on getting only Mini-Mart in return.

NEPP = over

Stop posting comments as me!

bap, that was it. Sorry about the misquote, but I hope you feel I got the context right.

I agree with your point, though.

Hoping for a "rebound" from an unmotivated, overpaid, waste-of-a-uniform like Wells smacks of desperation to me.

Wells stinks, or rather, Wells smells.

OK, here's what RAJ is looking at:

2011: .284/.320/.531

2012: .227/.298/.373

Those are Wells' splits vs LHP, and maybe RAJ is thinking he can get a platoon player on the cheap if Wells can rebound to 2011 form.

OTOH, he's been virtually useless against RHP the last 2 seasons.

Question for the board:

what in Darin ruf's history indicates he cannot hit RHP?

awh, it was I that replied to bap's post by claiming that I would pay Wells entire salary and buy him a car wash if the Angels threw in Mike Trout.

Interesting article here about the changing valuation of prospects:

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2012/12/18/mariners-finding-out-that-timing-is-everything-when-it-comes-to-rebuilding-and-upgrading/?syndication=rss

Some quotes:

"I read with great interest this story last week in Prospect Insider suggesting that what was driving the obvious value decline was the new reality of the second wild-card in baseball. As a theory, it’s one of the better ones I’ve seen put forward yet."
______________________________________________

"It’s now much tougher to build a long-term winner by stockpiling draft picks and not spending."


awh: I think the question on Ruf is if he can hit MLB pitching and play MLB defense, period, let alone a certain kind of pitching.

in 1280 PA, Ruf hit 29 HR. in his last 580 PA he hit 38. Where did this come from? thats my main concern - why don't we find out in AAA instead of MLB? And if AAA goes well, bring him on up.

as for his splits, I think he had an insane 1.400 OPS vs LHP or something like that. His vs RHP numbers were pretty good too - 900ish - but nothing otherworldly.

Fatti, that was it too.


Anyway you slice and dice it, Wells is barely replacement level right now, and getting older.


I'm serious, I wouldn't trade more than mini-mart or Orr for him. Would you?

It is already unlikely that the Phillies make the playoffs in 2013

Posted by: Will | Wednesday, December 19, 2012 at 04:24 PM


=======


This is why I love Beerleaguer.

And by the way, if our team is constructed today as it is in April, then I'm OK with starting Ruf in the majors. I have always assumed a corner OF would be acquired, but I may have been wrong in doing that.

A recurring theme has been that unless The Saint, The Piece and Doc all return to form trades and acquisitions are of little consequence. If we acquire Swisher but have a repeat of last year with the big 3 we're not going anywhere. So what constitutes return to form or at the minimum acceptable numbers. Do the following lines work?

Saint 120 games .270 .350 .430 .780 20hrs 65 rbi

Piece 140 games .245 .325 .475 .800 30hrs
90 rbi

Doc 29 games 190ip 3.35 era 14-8 w/l whip 1.14 8.8h/9 .9hr/9 1.9w/9 8so/9

"I'm serious, I wouldn't trade more than mini-mart or Orr for him. Would you?"

I would NOT trade Orr for Vernon Wells. I might not even trade Mini-Mart for Vernon Wells. It's not that I think those guys are better than Vernon Wells. It's that adding Wells would hasten the departure of either Ruf, Nix or Mayberry -- all of whom I regard as better than Vernon Wells. Therefore, adding Wells would actually make the team affirmatively worse, whereas keeping Mini-Mart & Orr at AAA does no harm -- or at least no immediate harm.

Howell=Go for it. You can never have enough good pitching. Pitchers get hurt, pitchers have off years, you can never have enough good pitching.

Vernon Wells=NO WAY! The guy all but washed up.

awh, only if it nets us Mike Trout. That's my floor in negotiations.

I'm told Howard has gotten himself under 375 lbs. and that Kendrick's workouts with Halladay have been going very well. Utley has been moving his knee laterally with no pain and thinks he'll be able to jog on it by spring training.

If you could get the Angels to pay all but about $5M per year of Wells salary, how could you be against it?

The two platoon thing is utter nonsense.

clout, you're utter nonsense.

:)

Wells is the hitting equivalent of Lindblom's pitching. That's how I could be against it.

And yes, the double platoon is nonsense. In fact, Ruf and Brown are going to be given the opportunity to become fulltime players. And that would make Mayberry and Nix exactly what they are supposed to be, backups. If Brown fails, then there may end up being a platoon in right. If Ruf fails, I think that will portend a trade or a deadline move. But knowing Charlie's apparent dislike for platoons, I certainly don't see two of them happening.

And Mayberry will get some time in center because Revere isn't exactly known as an ironman out there. No reason Mayberry won't get 20 games in centerfield.

I have no sense but not nonsense

aksmith, you realize that by appealing to Charlie's methods, you are contradicting yourself, because Charlie has always been one to go with "known quantities" or veterans first, in which case, he'd go with a Mayberry/Nix platoon well before he'd blithely start Ruf.

Unless Ruf hits like 30 HR in ST.

Morales to Seattle for an inning-eating pitcher not named Blanton. Done deal.

Rather do platoon and wait till deadline and chooch to solidify 5 spot.

The biggest reason to be against Wells, even at no cost, is that he'll probably stink and take AB away from other players who might be no great shakes but won't be Wells bad.

What would you rather have? Morales and $25M or Hamilton and Vargas? Wouldn't it have been better to keep Morales and sign Anibal Sanchez and then still have money left over? I think so.

Fat - Charlie has two competing methods here. He likes vets, and he doesn't like platoons. I also think he likes power hitters. So, I'm guessing that Ruf will win out 2-1 in the categories that Charlie likes. So, not really a contradiction. Just playing the odds. And it's also very possible that since he played Winter ball, Ruf may well be in better shape and have a better Spring than his competition.

Playing every day, I can guarantee either of Ruf/Brown would give you better than .222/.258/.409/.667

Without costing $5M/year

If we're going with even a single platoon, we'll need to first find a manager that knows how to manage a platoon...

"Rather do platoon and wait till deadline and chooch to solidify 5 spot."

I just had deja vu to the "tread water until Howard/Utley come back" conventional wisdom and threw up in my mouth.

I figured the Angels would end up trading Morales. They really seem to like Trumbo and Bourjos, and keep Bourjos and Trout will basically allow Josh Hamilton to be a defensive playing DH as he gets older, as he won't have to cover much of LF while he's out there. Trout and Bourjos can probably cover the entire OF by themselves.

Preacher: More appropriately the refrain should become something along the lines of

"If the Phillies can just tread water until they're no longer old &/or unskilled, they still won't be a playoff team."

"Rather do platoon and wait till deadline and chooch to solidify 5 spot."

I just had deja vu to the "tread water until Howard/Utley come back" conventional wisdom and threw up in my mouth.

Posted by: Willard Preacher


-----

True then, it's true now. 9-19 in June isn't "treading water". If they hadn't done that, they'd have been in the playoffs.

***Trout and Bourjos can probably cover the entire OF by themselves.***

Either Trout or Bourjos can probably cover the entire OF by themselves

Fixed that for you.

Cyclic - They would have needed to go pick up 8 games in the W column. They went 9-25 from June 2 to the ASB and that would sink just about any team.

Hope you didn't swallow your throw up. Or maybe you.........

It seemed to me that WP was implying there was something wrong with that previous "conventional wisdom", but I was pointing out that there wasn't.

Potential flaws in the "conventional wisdom" include (a) the Phillies lacking the talent to tread water until certain players are healthy/productive, & (b) the possibility that one or more of those certain players will never again be healthy/productive enough to make a positive difference.

I sometimes wonder if people here even like baseball/the Phillies.

"Cyclic - They would have needed to go pick up 8 games in the W column. They went 9-25 from June 2 to the ASB and that would sink just about any team."


MG, OK, say they had gone 17 - 17 in those 24 games? Treading water, no?

Do they make the playoffs?

Crap..."34 games".

I sometimes wonder if people here even like baseball/the Phillies.

Posted by: Cyclic | Wednesday, December 19, 2012 at 06:56 PM

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Be careful, you'll be labeled as a FO apologist if you keep talking like that.

After reading the latest article on RAJ, he keeps saying the same things about improving the club, etc. With the moves that he's made, has he done so collectively? I think not. The 8th inning? absolutely. The other areas? all-around, not sure.

I do however find it distressing that the only 2 meaningful bats he brought in since he's been here were Ibanez and Pence. Raul certainly held up his end. Pence, not really. When thinking about it, we're back to where we were before the Pence trade was made, and I don't think we're a better team now than then.

The players the team is being linked to currently aren't difference makers, but they certainly can't go into the season with the outfielders they currently have. Can they? If they are talking to teams about players not yet made public, which is always possible, do they have the pieces to make a deal? It's highly speculated that RAJ isn't done, but maybe he is. and most of what he's done so far has been just so-so. Just changing the names as one poster put it.

They need Doc, Utley and Howard to have big years. That unto itself will make the moves look better. If that doesn't happen, look for another 3rd-place finish. If THAT happens, we all will wonder what the hell is RAJ thinking?

My comment was more along the lines of how I don't like to enact the "contingency plan" before we even get a chance to start the season. When your plan for the season rests on "waiting for such and such to ride to the rescue," it's not really a plan, and it subjects you to such dynamics as significantly underperforming (or not treading water, if you will). It basically feels like we're giving everyone else a head start, which is a terrible "plan."

It's definitely a love hate relationship. And in the case of those weaned on the 60's and 90s, it's the result of the equivalent of an abusive relationship, in which we, as fans, tried to root for the team, and the team, being a sadsack collection of garbage, put together by GMs qualified only for torturing fans and small defenseless animals, lost in so many different ways that we ended up emotionally scarred into adulthood. And some would say beyond. So, there's that.

If this team finishes 3rd again and misses the playoffs, it is the beginning of the end of Amaro's tenure as GM.

He's signed through '15 but it is really difficult to see this team suddenly rebounding to make the playoffs in '14 if they miss out in '13.

Lorecore: really Ruf
Be careful. I had the audacity to suggest that a very young Dominic Brown spend more than a dozen at bats in AAA instead of being directly called up from Reading and I was told by no fewer than ten beerleaguer experts and a teenager named clout that I had no idea what I was talking about.

Obviously, they were right. Following his 2009 call up, he has been the second coming of Strawberry whose bat and defensive prowess are the very definition of major league ready.

Fast forward four seasons and we're hoping he may be capable of a platoon with Mayberry if they don't sign Cody Ross.

I suppose he could always just wave his scouting reports at opposing pitchers and intimidate them into a walk.

@Will Schweitzer:
Now I can't stop imagining Dom Brown walking into the batter's box and shouting at the pitcher, "DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY TOOLS I HAVE? MORE THAN A SWISS ARMY KNIFE! HELL, I'M NO FIVE-TOOL TALENT: I GOT FIVE MORE TOOLS THAN THE SCOUTS CAN EVEN COUNT!"

Thanks for the laugh.

Why would any team in their right mind want Vernon Wells? At his stage in his career he's so far over the he can't even see it. If the Angels ate his entire salay I don't want him.....I CAN'T believe his name even came up--any team could have him for a bologna sanwhich.

DPatrone wrote: "I do however find it distressing that the only 2 meaningful bats he brought in since he's been here were Ibanez and Pence. Raul certainly held up his end. Pence, not really. When thinking about it, we're back to where we were before the Pence trade was made, and I don't think we're a better team now than then."

I am really getting tired of the Pence-stunk-up-Citizen's-Bank meme; during his brief time here; not counting Ibanez's incredible first half of 2009, Pence's two half-seasons here were better than the majority of Raul's stay. He struggled somewhat this year when asked to stop being a complementary player (which was all he was supposed to be when acquired) and turn into a 3/4 hitter, which he wasn't up to. The hatred that was heaped on him on Beerleaguer and elsewhere was pretty undeserved; it seemed like he was being made the scapegoat for the whole team's 2012 failure, mainly because he was the "New Kid on the Block" and 99% of Beerleaguer was assured that Domonic down in the minors could do a better job (how'd that work out?). It's worth noting that, though Pence was definitely having a down year, he was leading the team in RBIs and HRs when traded--a very stupid move on Rube's part, considering what he got in return and what he's apparently going to use to replace Pence. I once again predict that Pence will have a better slash line in 2013 than Brown/Ross/Mayberry/Nix/whatever piece of garbage (looking at you, Vernon) winds up playing RF.

"I do however find it distressing that the only 2 meaningful bats he brought in since he's been here were Ibanez and Pence."


DPat, this is where your analysis becomes faulty. It's not just about bats, but improving the team overall.

So, let's do an incomplete review (NEW AQUISITIONS IN CAPS):

2008: Ruiz,Howard,Utley,Rollins,Feliz,Burrell,Victorino,Werth, and Hamels,Myers,Moyer,Eaton,KK,and BLANTON "big" deadline acquisition. Record: 92 - 70, WFC!!!!

2009:
Ruiz,Howard,Utley,Rollins,Feliz,IBANEZ,Victorino,Werth, and Hamels,Myers,Moyer,Blanton, Park,Happ called up, signed PEDRO MARTINEZ, and CLIFF LEE "big" deadline acquisition.
Record: 93 - 69, lost WS to a better team.

2010:
Ruiz,Howard,Utley,Rollins,POLANCO,Ibanez,Victorino,Werth, and HALLADAY,Hamels,Happ,Blanton,Moyer,KK, and traded for OSWALT "big" deadline acquisition.
Record: 97 - 65, lost to the Giants.

2011:
Ruiz,Howard,Utley,Rollins,Polanco,Ibanez,Victorino,FRANBERRYBROWN, Halladay,LEE,Hamels,Oswalt,Blanton, traded for PENCE "big" deadline acquisition.
Record: 102 - 60, lost to the Cards.


The point is, DPat, that the team improved through those years primarily by improving the PITCHING, not adding big bats.
And you cannot argue with the fact that Amaro's moves helped add 10 wins/season in 3 years.

Sure, the wheels fell off last season, but there were mitigating factors. But just because RAJ didn't add the bat YOU wanted doesn't mean this team is doomed.

BTW, you never responded to my post a couple of threads ago when I asked you what you thought of the Giants big moves last offseason. Did you thing those moves were difference makers and did you pick the Giants to win the WS?

Wonder what Villanueva is going to get. Figure it will be at least $6M AAV for 2 years and possibly even as high as 3 yr/$21M.

If the Phils do have an extra bit of money to kick around, I wish they would have spent that on a starter like Villanueva instead of Lannan.

Paid a notably higher base but there is also some upside potential with Villanueva.


" Following his 2009 call up..."

Schweitzer, Brown was not called up until 2010.

I'd be a little more open to the idea of Wells, if they had made a bold 3b move, like trading for Headley or something. I have faith that Young might be just fine, but there's a chance he's going to blah, same as Wells. Too much risk.

"He's signed through '15 but it is really difficult to see this team suddenly rebounding to make the playoffs in '14 if they miss out in '13." That 2014 25 man roster looks awful! Oh wait...

But Pence was a no-show in the NLDS and was a disaster in RF last year defensively and a bit of a disappointment offensively.

Maybe the Phils wouldn't have beaten the Cards with Bourn or made the playoffs last year with Bourn in RF. They certainly would have had to give up the package they did to the Astros though & would have won more games last year too.

Some people who think Pence was a good guy who really hustled. I thought he was kind of a dumba$$ who didn't listen to his coaches and made his share of mental errors/blunders especially in the field.

Hated how Pence was almost proud of the fact that he swung as hard as he could on almost every single pitch. Didn't matter what the situation was or what the count. Didn't listen to Cholly or Gross either. Just swing for the fences!

Ditto too his unnecessary dives/leaps in the field which lead to his share of miscues last year in RF.

Just a freakish athlete and stays in great shape but once that athleticism starts to diminish a bit my bet is that his numbers will drop off quickly.

Cmon', Will S. -- declare Beerleaguer Bankruptcy. I do it all the time... and it hasn't made me any more stupid.

I wonder if that's possible?

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