Phillies can expect great range, rag arm, in Revere

Here's one-man's take on Thursday's Ben Revere for Vance Worley and Trevor May swap, from HardballTalk.com writer and veteran Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman:

"When the Twins traded Denard Span last week the assumption was that they did so in part because Ben Revere was ready to step in as their new center fielder and leadoff man, but now they’ve traded Revere to the Phillies.

"Minnesota has an incredible lack of quality pitching throughout the organization and one area where the Twins have good depth is the outfield, where former first-round pick Aaron Hicks could be ready to become the starting center fielder at some point in 2013. Revere is very fast and very good defensively, but he has zero power and a fairly limited overall upside, so if the Twins feel Hicks will be ready soon anyway it makes some sense.

"Revere has tremendous range in center field that more than makes up for perhaps the worst arm in baseball and he’s capable of swiping 50 bases at a good clip, but he may never hit an over-the-fence homer and through age 24 he’s hit .278 with a .319 on-base percentage and .323 slugging percentage. For years he’s been compared to Juan Pierre, for better or worse." - Aaron Gleeman on HardballTalk.com

Saber-minded reader weighs in: "Juan Pierre (to whom Revere has been compared) was a valuable player throughout the 2000s. He was just given a stupid contract. And Revere's fWAR last year, even with that OPS, was better than all but two of Pierre's best in his career (and Pierre got a ton more plate appearances and playing time than Revere did last year with Minnesota). Again, 3.4 fWAR in 2012. BJ Upton's was 3.3. Revere's fWAR last year was twice Pierre's with the Phillies. Pierre is not a good defender anymore. Imagine if in addition to hitting .307/.351 Pierre provided 1000+ innings of elite defense in the OF. That's what Revere provided for Minnesota." - sophist

Additional scouting report: (Gleeman e-mailing Beerleaguer) "He takes some weird routes, definitely, but I don't think he's totally clueless out there. And his speed is truly elite. Might be the fastest guy in the majors, with lots of quickness and athleticism, and good long speed too. He has an incredible ability to make contact and I think sometimes that makes it appear as though he doesn't have much patience. He rarely walks, but that's in part because pitchers aren't afraid to throw him strikes and in part because whenever he swings he's putting the ball in play. So basically any swing ends the at-bat, ruling out a walk. He's willing to take some pitches, though. Exceptional base-stealer, both in terms of volume and success rate. Could easily steal 50-60 bases a season at a good clip. Not a very good bunter despite the Twins repeatedly asking him to work on that. And almost literally zero power. Like, struggles to hit fly balls to the warning track and will probably never hit an over-the-fence homer."

Beerleaguer: I'm pretty okay with going with cheap defense to solve the center field situation, but the Phils will need to add a major run producer to one of the corners or it will be among the worst outfields in the league next season.

Still, even with a notoriously weak hose, Revere is considered an elite outfielder, and defense was something the Phillies absolutely had to improve this winter.

Comments

[NEPP]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/phillies-pay-premium-for-ben-revere/#comment-3782301

Dave Cameron hates the move...shocking, I know.

[Rube Can Get His Own Damn Beer]

Granderson or Ellsbury

[Sophist]

NEPP - Cameron's article is interesting. Especially for his insight on Revere's GB% and the value of his defense. He definitely loses major points for calling Trevor May our "best prospect." May's value plummeted. Phils sold low on him. Sounds like Cameron doesn't know that and just doesn't like Revere much.

[J. Weitzel]

Revere definitely seems like total speed. One-tool player, but a massive tool.

[Lake Fred]

I guess that KK's semi-solid performance in 2012 made the Vanimal expendable.

[Jack]

I don't necessarily disagree with Cameron on Revere--those are my basic concerns as well.

But yeah, considering the move bad because we gave up Trevor May makes no sense. May stinks.

[NEPP]

***He definitely loses major points for calling Trevor May our "best prospect." ***

I suspect he looked at his old Top Prospects list and assumed nothing had changed...that was a whiff by him. The GB% was a bit worrisome to say the least.

This is a good move if it allows them to get a big bat and a 4/5 starter.

If they dont do those things and this ends up as simply a cost-savings move, it was a mistake.

[Sophist]

Cameron even says "May is a similar prospect to Alex Meyer." Isn't that pretty much false?

[BobbyD]

1) They may not be done.
2) Doesn't matter who they acquire if Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels don't carry the team.
3) You can't complain about today's acquisitions if you're always complaining about the Phillies overpaying players in years and money. One or the other. You either get players like these, or you overpay others.

[GTown_Dave]

Revere definitely seems like total speed. One-tool player, but a massive tool.

Because we all know how much Charlie values that running aspect of the game.

It bears repeating: the Phillies do not need Juan Pierre w/ better defense, they need players who can hit for extra bases.

[Sophist]

Is May even one of our top 4-5 pitching prospects anymore?

[nokwurst]

I'm excited on Revere except for one thing: "perhaps the worst arm in baseball."
You never want the worst anything.

[Willard Preacher]

"Revere definitely seems like total speed. One-tool player, but a massive tool."

And considering the consternation when Vic (who has the same speed tool, as well as a few others) couldn't hit, I don't see Ben endearing himself to this fanbase.

[Jack]

Sophist: Well, Meyer is similar in that (I think) he is also a high-velocity big pitcher who has struggled with mechanics and command.

But he's a better version of May. And he also was a really low return on Span, most people thought, because of his issues.

[NEPP]

Yes, yes it is. Its a blatant reach to make the trade look bad. Everything he said would have been accurate had it been Jesse Biddle, not Trevor May.

[NEPP]

***Is May even one of our top 4-5 pitching prospects anymore? ***

Well, he's a Twin so no.

But seriously, he might have been #4 or #5 based on his previous potential.

[J. Weitzel]

May walked 78 guys last season ...

[The Truth Injection]

He also termed Vance Worley as significantly better than Kyle Kendrick.

Look I know KK takes a beating here and is the main controversial topic here. But Worley is a guy that has thrown 277 innings in the majors and in his two main seasons as a starter he has a 127 and 95 ERA+.

Kendrick has been a starter for 5 years in the majors posting ERA+ of: 118, 79, 86, 119, and 103.

That doesn't strike me as significantly better.

[Sophist]

"Well, Meyer is similar in that (I think) he is also a high-velocity big pitcher who has struggled with mechanics and command."

That would make Meyer and May similar to each other as well as a bunch of minor league arms of highly varying value, right?

Seems like an even trade to me, although I worry about his Revere's defense will translate and this GB% thing. If it allows the Phils to sign Edwin Jackson or an 8th inning guy or a bat, it's definitely a win for them.

Gtown - You realize the Phils under Manual have been one of the best base-running teams in baseball history, right?

[Elephant in the room]

Okay, times to start talking about getting our new 4th or 5th rotation starter.

I like Brandon McCarthy.

[dlhunter]

Ben "may never hit an over-the-fence homer", "perhaps the worst arm in baseball" Revere

Find me Ricky Ledee.

[HiddenName]

"One-tool player, but a massive tool."

Ironic. Same scouting report as Ron Jeremy.

[Cyclic]

I feel like this bears repeating. Especially #2...

=============

1) They may not be done.
2) Doesn't matter who they acquire if Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay, Lee, and Hamels don't carry the team.
3) You can't complain about today's acquisitions if you're always complaining about the Phillies overpaying players in years and money. One or the other. You either get players like these, or you overpay others.

Posted by: BobbyD | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 02:13 PM

[NEPP]

May walked 78 guys last season ...

That's not too bad

...in 149 IP.

That's bad.

He struck out 151 batters

That's good.

In AA

That's bad.

He throw's mid-90s.

That's good.

His fastball contains potassium benzoate.

...

That's bad.

Oh.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Sophist: May is likely in the 3-5 range. We've got Biddle at the top and Pettibone, probably. Then a group including May, Martin, Morgan.

[Cyclic]

But he comes with a free Frogurt!

[J. Weitzel]

Revere is still quite young. He'll turn 25 in May. Michael Bourn, for example, didn't become nearly the player he is now until his age 26 season.

[RedBurb]

I would've ranked May behind Biddle, Martin and possibly Morgan at this point in the offseason.

[Iceman]

Everyone wants to get younger and less expensive until they do, and then it's not good enough.

Jack was lauding Rizzo for getting Span at 80% of Bourn's production for 50% of the price or something like that. How much better do you think Bourn's production will be than Revere's contract next year, or more importantly, for the entire life of the deals?

This was a smart, cost-cutting move, that was a bit more expensive than I'd have liked. But if you sign one of these veteran SP like Marcum, you've upgraded the rotation, too. I don't think many were that high on Worley going forward.

[Luis]

Well this guy kind of came out of nowhere. Thats why i usually wait all the speculating and hundreds of posts by the same Bl'er folk. I some what figured Rube was trying to be creative. Just didnt know how and what he had in mind.

[Dave X]

Never should have traded cardenas

[Iceman]

Show of hands: who now is more open to the idea of Josh Hamilton?

[NEPP]

I will put money on Revere being a better CF in 3-4 seasons than Bourn.

FWIW.

That's likely the thought process behind this deal.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Given May's stuff and potential, he may have been as high as the 2nd best pitching prospect in the Phils system behind Biddle. Pettibone is more refined and closer to the majors. Martin and Morgan still have serious questions.

At worst, May was the 3rd best SP prospect in the system. No need to talk him down past that.

[Sophist]

Todd Zolecki ‏@ToddZolecki
Phillies felt they dealt from position of strength (young pitching). With Pettibone, Martin, Morgan, etc., in system, they could trade May.

[RedBurb]

Yeah but May had made it a habit of repeating levels after poor results. I don't think it was talking him down, it's talking realistically about his future potential.

[nokwurst]

NEPP: nice on the Simpsons ref.

Iceman: Aye!

[Sophist]

Ryan Ludwick still out there too. I think he's waiting to see if the Reds will match a higher offer from another team.

[Bowlcut]

Some Rube quotes on the Revere trade.

http://phollowingthephillies.blogspot.com/2012/12/interview-with-ruben-amaro-on-ben.html

He calls Michael Bourn....."Bourny" That Ruben is crazy with his fancy nicknames.

[UBIK]

That GB% observation in the Cameron article was rather depressing, but I still like this deal. Especially if we can get a power bat for LF/RF.

I like Worley too, although I worry he might get eaten up in the AL. I think our training staff probably had a reasonably good idea of "the deal" with his elbow (bio-medical information! the new competive advantage!). I wouldn't be shocked if his 2-seamer isn't the easiest for an elbow to throw. Always thought Worley seemed like a stand-up-human-being sort of fellow.

May... meh. Cameron is obviously about 14 months behind the curve if he thinks May is our best arm.

[Cyclic]

Revere
Young
Utley
Howard
Hamilton
Rollins
Ruiz
Ruf/Brown

[Sophist]

Also think it's funny to slam the deal because the Phils don't need what Revere offers. For one, they need to be younger and better defensively, and they needed an actual CF. Unless you planned on having Hamilton split CF with Mayberry (and play elsewhere against LHP), CF was a position the Phils could not upgrade with a power bat at this point. And they probably had few options to upgrade it in a way that left them with options to fill needs (3B, RH bat, etc.) elsewhere.

[bay_area_phan]

"Show of hands: who now is more open to the idea of Josh Hamilton?"

That would make 4 left-handers in our lineup -- and that's not even counting Dom, who must surely fit in there somewhere. I'd rather have Swisher.

[Cyclic]

Oops, Young lower, Rollins higher

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Redburb: Agreed... just saying you'd have to work hard to NOT consider him one of our top 5 pitching prospects.

[GTown_Dave]

A 67% GB rate? Sounds like Revere will fit perfectly w/ the Infieldins. Opposing OFers might as well not even bother entering the field of play.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

GB% for Revere is a concern... but not as much as it would be if he were a player with no speed. I'd much rather see Revere putting the ball on the ground than popping it up!

[Sophist]

Hamilton's handedness is pretty irrelevant in considering him. He hits everyone. Really doubt the Phils sign him anyway.

[J. Weitzel]

Sophist: Exactly. They had to put a pure CF out there, and they needed to improve the defense, especially at a key position.

I wonder if the Phils will take offers on Mayberry now. They just picked up a CF in the Rule 5.

Really need power now and an 8th inning guy. 4th-5th starter also in play suddenly.

[Luis]

Of all the posts I have to 98% agree on what Bobby D said. BL'ers go back and read it again and again. Recite it backward and forward.

[GTown_Dave]

So Rollins leads off w/ his universe leading Pop Up %? And Revere follows w/ his universe leading Ground Ball %? This is gonna be exciting!

[Willard Preacher]

JW, I think you're onto something. But what kind of trade value does Mayberry have now?

Oh, and I'm looking forward to months on end of snarky comments about whether or not JRoll is still in that lead off spot. And the ensuring years on end of vitriol if/when he is.

[NEPP]

May still being a Top 5 prospect is more a tribute to the weakness of our system than his actual upside at this point.

Revere is a solid addition but more moves need to be made...this deal does leave them in a financial position to make those moves though.

[jbird]

May's placement on the Phillies prospect spectrum depends on how much you want to value ceiling vs. likelihood of making that ceiling. probably #2 ceiling, more likely to flame out than ever pitch in the majors. I agree with those who said he probably makes the majors as a reliever.

[Sophist]

Only point I was making about May even being Top 3-5 at this point was just to show he's not even among our best pitching prospects let alone prospects period. And that's in a relatively weak farm.

[bay_area_phan]

Unless someone bowls them over with an offer (which seems unlikely), Mayberry is not someone the Phillies should be trading. For one thing, they need RH pop off the bench. For two, Revere has not exactly been a model of durability and, for all his faults, Mayberry is a much safer backup option than Ender Whatever-his-name-is.

[NEPP]

Revere doesnt really have a platoon split and Hamilton crushes both LH and RH pitching. That wouldn't be an issue.

[Joe D]

Guys, rank the needs that need to be filled from top priority to bottom

Needs: 4th or 5th starter, right handed power bat, late-inning relief

For me it's
1. right handed power bat
2. 4th or 5th starter
3. late-inning relief

I am still really worried about the back-end of the pen even though I ranked that 3rd. These young guys are really going to need to step up.

[ColonelTom]

RAJ took to heart the idea that by signing Bourn, the Phillies would have managed to have had him for all but the prime years of his career. RAJ has to be viewing Revere as Bourn version 2.0. Revere's not quite Bourn, though - he has a smaller frame and can't even drive the ball into the gaps, let alone over the fence. I hope I'm wrong and that he grows into some gap power, but I think that is wishful thinking. He will help offset some of the range issues they're likely to face with Ruf and/or Brown patrolling the corners.

I suspect there was some dissatisfaction with Worley's conditioning, especially given the Phils' bullpen struggles last year. Worley's career numbers plummet after 50 pitches (something like .650 OPS through 50 pitches, .820 thereafter). That's true for everyone to some extent, but more so for Vance, the guy with the "Running Sucks" t-shirt. He's basically a 6-inning guy, though a pretty good one.

I'd be surprised if May turns into a good starter. Hard-throwing pitching prospects who lose their control in the higher minors are fairly common, and most of them don't amount to much. I could see him as a late-inning reliever, but that's not something the Phils are likely to miss in the long term.

[Joe D]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Bf1H1_fofw

[lorecore]

bap: for the exact same price, would you take Swisher over Hamilton?

[Willard Preacher]

Dennis Deitch ‏@DennisDeitch

Hey Ruben talked! He says Pettibone & Cloyd have earned a shot to be No. 5 starters in 2013.
------------------------------------

All of a sudden I hate the Reading Fighting Ostriches PR stunt a lot less...

[Willard Preacher]

Also, Ruben said Revere can be either a leadoff or No. 8 hitter. (But he's going to be a no. 8 to open)

[GTown_Dave]

b_a_p: Ender Icanthit, I think. Gotta keep him on the roster. No choice. Rule 5 & all.

[Joe D]

Worley really has a "running sucks" shirt?

[kvonnegutfan]

So now all we gotta do the Texas Three-Step: Young at 3rd, Hamilton in RF and Mike Adams at 8th inning guy

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

In general, teams carry 5 OFs on their roster.

Phillies: Revere, Brown, Starting RF, Mayberry Jr, Rule 5 guy

Right? Where's Ruf?

[Iceman]

BAP- calm down about the platoon split thing. Revere actually has reverse splits for his career and hit .314 against them last year.

[Willard Preacher]

That's just posturing, right? RAJ can't really expect anyone to believe that Cloyd has a shot at the rotation? The falloff of Worley to Cloyd is far greater a chasm than a Revere "upgrade" over JMJ.

[J. Weitzel]

Mayberry strikes me as a guy who needs to play to be effective. When he was in limbo early this season, he stunk. When he was on the field regularly, he was decent, but not a difference maker offensively. I'm sorta over Mayberry.

[bay_area_phan]

lorecore: It's a bit hard for me to answer that because I don't know what the price is. Obviously, Hamilton is better than Swisher. But I consider him to have far more risk, both on and off the field.

On a 3-year deal, I'll take Hamilton. On a 5-year deal, I'd take Swisher. Of course, I assume they won't be at the exact same price. Hamilton is going to cost considerably more on an AAV basis.

[Cyclic]

Edwin Jackson, Jair Jurrjens, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy

These the kind of options we're looking at for 4th or 5th?

Better? Worse?

[J. Weitzel]

I could also see Cody Ross being the next move.

[GTown_Dave]

Dump Mayberry. He has had multiple chances, & the bottom line is it's not worth sitting through 5 months of utter suck for that 1 month of brilliance. Give Ruf the spot.

[danomyte]

KAS: You forgot Nix. Kind of a logjam at OF now..a logjam of "meh"

[NEPP]

***But he's going to be a no. 8 to open***

It'll be so fun to see him steal 2B repeatedly just to watch the pitcher strikeout to end the inning.

[NEPP]

I would be okay with:

LF: Ruf/Brown
CF: Revere
RF: Ross

Its not world-changing but its not a terrible outfield either.

[Cyclic]

Really really hope Ruf mashes this year.

[Alexander]

I'd really like to see Curtis Granderson in a Phillies uniform.He is my favorite outfielder in all of baseball besides and Phillie now.Great Power,Great Speed,Good Defense.But he pops out and strikes out like crazy, but i'll take his 40-45 homers and 20-25 SBs and solid defense anytime, he is 31 but man he is a better option than josh hamilton and michael bourne in my opinion, he is clean up or a 3 but im sure he can be moved to 5 and,succeed.

Sadly, this can only happen in my dreams.

[bay_area_phan]

Iceman: I got killed for saying this before, but it's still my view that all LHP are not created equal. A LOOGY, whose only job is to get left-handers out, is a more difficult animal even for left-handed hitters like Hamilton who generally hit LHP well.

Revere is probably somewhat immune to LOOGYs, since he's the ultimate slap hitter. But adding another LH hitter in the middle of our order is going to render us utterly toothless after about the 6th inning. I also think that Hamilton's ability to hit LHP will be the first offensive skill to go -- as it often is for left-handed hitters.

[lorecore]

If we get Young and Revere to save money and get Cody Ross, it was an awful offseason.

[Willard Preacher]

Pretty happy that Ben Francisco has set the bar for "offensively inept OF's" so low for Phillies named 'Ben.'

[Alexander]

I'd say Pettibone, Biddle, Josrph are our top 3.

[GTown_Dave]

Still, even with a notoriously weak hose, Revere is considered an elite outfielder, and defense was something the Phillies absolutely had to improve this winter.

And this might mean something were Revere an infielder, from whence the vast majority of the Phillies fielding woes emanated. Instead, the ball club is looking to shore up their single worst defensive position by signing Michael Young.

Makes perfect sense.

[Willard Preacher]

"I would be okay with:

LF: Ruf/Brown
CF: Revere
RF: Ross

Its not world-changing but its not a terrible outfield either."

The elephant in the room is 3B. If Galvis is considered, this may be among one of the worst offensive Phillies teams assembled in the last 25 years.

[Alexander]

Phillies need a follow up movie we CANNOT go through this season with a,weak and inexperienced outfield like ours.We need another power bat and as i said before, i jope its curtis granderson...but also i said....only in my dreams.

[Jack]

WP: Or if Michael Young hits like Michael Young did last year.

[Alexander]

oh yeah and what's the deal with the single-A draftee?

[Dave X]

The real question for 3B isn't if Galvis is in, it's: Feliz or Helms/Dobbs platoon?

[The Hook]

Almost need a josh H or swish.

[J. Weitzel]

Nix is kind of this team's sleeper pick. Injury issues last season, now in a spot in his career where he needs to produce to keep his MLB status alive. Would be curious to see how he looks in ST. Will be an interesting ST for the outfield w/ moves likely to come at the conclusion.

[lorecore]

alexander: I believe there will be a lot of prospect lists that include Roman Quinn as a top 3 prospect.

[Alexander]

roman quinn forgot about him, might as well throw,in larry green.

[Iceman]

"If we get Young and Revere to save money and get Cody Ross, it was an awful offseason."

Agree 100%. I liked the idea of Ross before, when there was more potential to upgrade power at CF and 3B. Now, it isn't enough.

Ludwick, Swisher or Hamilton, basically. Unless they want to give the Twins Hamels for Willingham, which is what they might charge after the price Amaro paid for Revere.

[nokwurst]

"If Galvis is considered, this may be among one of the worst offensive Phillies teams assembled in the last 25 years."
Posted by: Willard Preacher

You seem to have blocked from your memory some of the truly bad Phils teams from 87-92 and 94-98.

[Iceman]

Murphy says he can see them signing Dempster to a 3-year deal because he has a good relationship with Dubee.

YES, YES, YES. Do it. That would be quite an upgrade in the rotation. Dempster's numbers before he got traded last year were disgustingly good.

[Iceman]

If they do acquire Young, the next two moves should be Mike Adams and Swisher.

Can't believe Uehara got a 1-year deal in the pressure-cooker of Boston. Maybe teams were scared off by his age? Either way, this should mean that Adams' price won't be ridiculous, especially since he's coming off TOS surgery.

[Willard Preacher]

nokwurst, I don't block them at all. Curious as to how many runs I should expect if/when the Phils would trot out a lineup consisting of Galvis, Revere, Mayberry, Kratz and the pitcher in the bottom 44% of the order?

[MG]

I do like Cameron's description of Revere as 'Perhaps the most extreme speed-and-defense specialist in Major League Baseball.'

Kids don't try this home.

[MG]

Dave - They had real problems in the OF too especially until they traded Pence.