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Monday, December 10, 2012

Comments

MG (last thread): I guess it kind of depends on where you set the goalposts for calling a pitcher an 'upgrade.' If you're setting it at Cloyd, then yeah Capuano would be preferable. I'm still setting that bar at Worley to measure the signing as an upgrade/downgrade from last year's squad. In that case, I don't think Capuano would be (above like maybe a ~10% chance) better than Worley and wouldn't really make the team better.

In my view, Amaro investing more in pitching would mean choosing from the Marcum/Jackson/Dempster tier and going with Cody Ross in the OF.

Miner? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

FA pitcher note: I hear Jamie Moyer is still available.

It seems people were confused on why the Royals made that trade...the key word you're looking for is Royals

They are terrible for a reason.

"Infielder Freddy Galvis is having perhaps the most complete campaign, hitting .298/.351/.449 over 192 plate appearances."

Freddy must have found something to help his bat in the winter leagues.

I'm surprised that Anibal Sanchez isn't getting more time on the hot stove. He's pretty much a lock for ~200 IP, 105 ERA+. I'd take that in a heartbeat to fill out our rotation.

Any ideas on his demands?

From last thread:
For one, you usually want to wait until you're ready to win a title to start dealing from your farm

Two factors at play:
1. KC thinks their existing players as a group will improve on a somewhat disappointing 2012 (Hosmer, Moustakos, full year from Salvador Perez)
2. Dayton Moore is allegedly on the hot seat. His goal to win this year; if not, bye bye. This scenario seldom portends well for the team long term.

and a third:
3. They seem to think Jeff Francoeur is a RF solution.

It's just KC bein' KC (as NEPP just said).

Also, Sanchez is 29. Locking him up on 3-4 year deal would be a fantastic move to lock down some consistency in the rotation.

Hamels
Lee
Halladay
Sanchez
Kendrick
Cloyd
Pettibone

I like that rotation/depth.

I'd imagine that Sanchez wants quite a bit of money.

Fatti, derek and I mentioned Sanchez on the last thread.

I agree. If he's affordable he'd be a great addition.

I retract my last two posts. For some reason, i got the crazy idea he was a FA this year. He's, in fact, not.

Or is he? B-ref says that he's 3rd year arb eligible this year, but this year is also his earlier FA year.

What am I missing here?

Someone...help!

Now that Grienke is off the board, I would think that the 2nd tier of starters would start to move pretty soon. Sanchez is the best available pitcher left, so with Grienke's price so high, I wouldn't be surprised if Sanchez is priced high right now as well. 5yr/$70M'ish i'd guess.

Fatti, Sanchez was granted FA on October 29th:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchan01.shtml

Fatti, look in the "Transactions" section of the page.

Thanks awh!

Rube had better figure something out with the rotation. If we look ahead to 2013, there is at least a 50%a chance that Halladay is not back. God help us if Toronto makes a run this year, I could see Doc signing there to help them because of the "unfinished business" end of things.

awh, yeah I see it now. Forgot that was there. 9:30 in the morning isn't my best time of the day. :)

Food for thought:

Sanchez has averaged 196 IP (6.17 IP/start) the last 3 seasons, pitchng to a 3.70 ERA.

That's a decent #3 starter on almost any team.

That's also not as good as Worley was (6.29 IP/start , 3.07 ERA) before he hit the DL last year.

Basically, you'd be replacing Worley with Sanchez - for a lot more money.

Then again, we have Ben Revere.

lorecore, I don't know if Sanchez will get an AAV of $14MM, given that he had shoulder surgery in the past, but he may get 4 - 5 years.

Or, he may get that kind of AAV, but on a shorter contract.

Sanchez is looking for 6/90 and will probably get at least 4/50. Somewhere in between.

Lore,I suspect RAj isn't planning on spending eight figures for another SP.

Then again, he's surprised us in the past.

Francisco Liriano would be a nice gamble.

I have been in a minor debate with A-Train about the best teams in the division.

I have a quick question for the board:

The Nats top 4 starters gave them 718-2/3 IP last season with a 3.08 ERA.

How many here think that they can/will repeat that?

***Francisco Liriano would be a nice gamble.***

Yeah, for the bullpen. I wouldn't even give him the CHOP special of a "shot at the rotation" at this point.

He'd be a great bullpen reclamation guy though.

awh: Worley has a career 5.8 IP/GS, what numbers are you using to get 6.29 IP/GS "before the DL"?

Pay attention to your average IP per season before you start penciling in Worley to be on par. Sanchez has been much more valuable than Worley up to this point. While Worley is likely to exceed his past season IP totals, he's just as likely to raise his career ERA.

Sophist, given Sanchez's injury history, I would not offer his 6 years on a deal.

I would sign him to 4/50.

Dallas Braden would be a good sign, and likely a cheap one, at that, since he's coming off of missing almost two full seasons. If he does indeed come cheap, he's certainly a low risk/high reward type of guy for the back of the rotation, not to mention someone who would be a great addition to the clubhouse atmosphere.

***How many here think that they can/will repeat that?***

They might...given that Strasburg wont be limited to 160 innings this year.

lorecore, go to b-r.com.

Pull up Vance Worley.

Click on the "Gamelogs" link and select 2012.

Then, when his 2012 gamelogs show up, you can see that he pitched until May 11th.

Click on his first game of the season, and then click on the May 11 game, and b-r does a nice job of totalling up the games.

Worley pitched 44 innings in 7 starts last season before he hit the DL - 6.29 IP/start.

Yeah, WSN has the best rotation in the NL right now, probably. And if they get the Dan Haren from 2 years ago, probably the best in baseball by a good margin.

They're going to be a good team again.

awh: and what relevance do you think those 7 starts are when comparing him to Anibal Sanchez's last 3 seasons with his around 600 IP?

Sanchez asked for 6/90. I didn't say he'd get it. I think he'll get somewhere between 4/50 and what he's asked, depending on how many teams are interested. I think he'll get more than 13M AAV if it's a 4-year deal.

The world would be a better place if the Royals were good.

None of their Big 3 (Stras, Zimm and Gio) even went over 200 innings...why wouldn't they be expected to do so in 2013? Jackson, the guy Haren is replacing, only pitched 189 innings.

Its not as if they had some absurd IP numbers that are tough to repeat. Given that their average age is something like 27, I suspect they might exceed that number in 2013.

Worley has averaged 5.61 IP/GS (you have to remove the innings where he entered in relief).

That's just not a good number for a SP. I know he had a great ERA+ in 2011, and he may be very good going forward, but he's still a question mark as to what kind of long term SP he's going to be.

Nats Rotation & Age (in 2013)
Strasburg: 24
Gonzalez: 27
Zimmermann: 27
Detwiler: 27
Haren: 32

Am i the only on that thinks Cloyd will actually be better than Worley? Cloyd is the reason Worley became expendable... they must see something in Cloyd.. Personally i love the trade for Young... He will love it here.. and the fans will love him..

"Sanchez has been much more valuable than Worley up to this point."

We agree. I was simply contrasting what Worley gave them pre-DL last season, with what Sanchez has averaged the last 3 years - and also mentioned the COST of the two pitchers.

I never stated that Worley "would" give any team that type of production going forward (though I don't see why he wouldn't be able to). However, I was merely pointing out that if they did sign Sanchez, which is unlikely given his salary/years request, they would basically be replacing what Worley gave them last season before being hurt.

Also, it's important to note that Worley, until he went on the DL last season DID average 6.03 IP start in 2012 and 2013 (169 IP over 28 starts), but was only able to muster 89 IP in the 16 starts he made (5.56 IP/start) with the bone chips in his elbow. Also, the season really took it's toll on his elbow, because in his last 5 starts he only pitched 24 innings (4.8 IP/start).

***Am i the only on that thinks Cloyd will actually be better than Worley?***

Probably. I seriously doubt he'll even stick on the 25 man.

Kyle: I strongly disagree, and i think most people do.

I also disagree that Cloyd is a reason Worley could be moved. I think Kendrick's development at the end of 2012 would be the biggest reason Worley was 'expendable'. However, I believe Worley was moved just because the Phillies saw it easier to replace a back end of rotation starter than it was a starting CF.

"awh: and what relevance do you think those 7 starts are when comparing him to Anibal Sanchez's last 3 seasons with his around 600 IP?"

Simple: Given the choice, I'd rather have Vance Worley at the MLB minimum than Anibal Sanchez on an 8-figure contract.

awh: i dont disagree with your conclusion, but citing those 7 starts is pretty useless information to me.

Kyle Kendrick is so hit or miss though...

OK, I guess I wan't specific enough in my question about the Nats rotation.

I don't disagree with the notion that their top 4 will equal or exceed the IP from last season.

But, do you really think they can repeat the ERA?

Personally, I don't. I believe they'll be good, but not THAT good.

***do you really think they can repeat the ERA?***

Maybe.

But then I've always thought Jordan Zimmermann was ridiculously underrated and Strasburg should only get better. If it drops off it will be because Haren is shot (a distinct possibility) and Detwiler reverts to a pumpkin(also a distinct possibility). Their Big 3 might actually all get better.

lore, it wasn't just those 7 starts. Through the 169 IP in 2012/13 (28 starts) - before he hit the DL - Worley was actually slightly BETTER than Sanchez.

Not that Worley will be better going forward, but I stand by my point that adding Sanchez would basically be replacing what Worley gave them for 20-30 times the money.

Kyle: You're an idiot. Dig a hole and sit in it for a while.

Kyle Lohse wouldnt be a bad gamble for 4th or 5th starter as well...

***Kyle Lohse wouldnt be a bad gamble for 4th or 5th starter as well...***

He'd also be a great guy to use in relief situations come playoff time.

awh,

Strasburg, I say he's better next year:
217 IP, 241 K, 2.91 ERA

Zimmerman, I'll say he drops a bit:
202 IP, 159 K, 3.10 ERA

Gonzalez, about the same:
195 IP, 201 K, 3.00 ERA

Detwiler, I say he drops:
165 IP, 109 K, 3.75 ERA

Dan Haren, I think Dan Haren shines for them this year:
208 IP, 195 K, 3.11 ERA


Lohse will likely end up costing far more than we'd want to pay given his last 2 years:

63 GS, 30-11, 3.11 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.127 ERA

Its also his last big chance to score a huge contract going into his Age 34 season.

awh: What was your debate about the best team in the division? Do you think it is not the Nationals?

JTROLL: Sorry you think im an idiot.. I just really like that trade.. Young will be great for this team.. And personally i dont think worley will ever be better than a 4th starter.. and is becoming injury prone.. were all intitled to our own opinions..

Worley is injury prone because he pitched through the same elbow injury Hamels had a couple years ago and who also underwent the same surgery to clean out loose bodies in the elbow.

Good thing Hamels isn't also injury prone.

By the way, if the justification for the Royals trade is that Dayton Moore has to try and win right now in order to keep his job, then that's terrible, terrible ownership.

If you put someone in a position where they're actually hurting your long-term goals for personal short-term benefit, what is the point of that? You either commit to a GM with a serious plan and let them develop that plan, or you bring in someone new. More and more, I'm convined that the key to a successful franchise is good, smart ownership. If you don't have that, I don't see how you succeed.

Jack, you need to pay attention.

I can't afford to pay attention.

"Cloyd is the reason Worley became expendable... they must see something in Cloyd.."

I think the reason Worley became expendable is because they see something in Jonathan Pettibone, Adam Morgan, and Ethan Martin. Cloyd, not so much.

Kyle: j"Troll" is simply that, dont even bother responding.

Liking the Young trade is far from the minority, it was the comment that Tyler Cloyd's upside could match Worley is what you seem to be apart from most anyone else.

In fact, Tyler Cloyd doesn't even have "upside" compared to Worley, since he's older then him anyway. He also gave up 8 HR in just six of mlb starts so far, thats an impossible rate of HR for a pitcher to overcome.

nats rotation is younger and better than ours.

Fata- I'm really puzzled as to why you're so high on Dan Haren coming off a dreadful year, yet you think Young has no chance to bounce back and contribute. Haren was about as bad from a pitching standpoint as Young was offensively.

In fact, I don't know how anyone can think Haren will 'shine' based on anything tangible. People seem to want to give players for other teams more credit for being able to bounce back than players from the Phils (Halladay, Howard, Utley), but that probably has a lot to do with the defeatist attitude that's rampant on this site and in this fanbase.

Cloyd can throw strikes and he obviously dominated AAA hitters last year. He's exactly the type of guy I could see having a great spring training and beating out the mystery "low risk, high reward" pitcher for the last starter's spot. Then the regular season will start & he'll get bombed.

The Nats top 4 starters gave them 718-2/3 IP last season with a 3.08 ERA.

How many here think that they can/will repeat that?

The Nats are young & a 3.08 ERA, while excellent, isn't so ridiculously low as to make a repeat impossible.

What was ridiculous was the notion that Phillies starting pitching, which combined for a truly insane 2.86 ERA & 1.110 WHIP in 1064.2 IP in '11, was somehow going to become an annual norm.

Plus the Nationals can, you know, hit. Tends to be helpful, that. So unless Washington performs well below its capability, the Phillies enter '13 fighting for a Wild Card spot.

FWIW, I don't expect the Nationals to repeat their record for last year. I think they'll win fewer games, despite being just as good a team (or better), on paper.

I will take the under on 97 wins every single time no matter what the team. It's just very, very hard to do. Of course, I said that about the 2011 Phillies as well, and they won 102.

If Cloyd is to have any kind of MLB career, I see it as a 1-2 inning middle reliever, the kind of guy you bring in when your starter craps the bed.

if we dont get a power bat in the OF with not great but "hold your own" defense, than we are 86-91 wildcard hopefuls we need a power bat direly.

I hate the Nats, but I think they'll win over 100 games this year. In truth, they underachieved last year. if they get an improved Bryce Harper, a healthy Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos, and Drew Storen, then they're clearly the best team in baseball. Throw in Haren and the rotation is without a close rival. We're fighting for a wild card and, if you ask me, we're nowhere near the favorite for either slot right now (SF, Atl.)

Tyler Cloyd's upside is Kyle Kendrick Lite.

Considering Haren led the AL in K/BB ratio in 2011 and went 16-10 with a 3.17 ERA in 238 IP, it's not exactly crazy to think he'll bounce back with a good year pitching in the National League. Obviously the health is a huge question mark. But he's 32 and one year removed from finishing 7th in Cy Young voting (and was probably better than that). The idea that he's "shot" is sort of ludicrous.

I also think it's reasonable to hope Young will bounce back. That said, there are a few differences. The first is that we know Young's value is limited because his defense stinks--even if he bounces back offensively, he's only a 2-3 win player, max. Second, Young is 36, not 32, making it more likely that he just isn't good anymore. And finally, Haren is just the better player. So you would always bet on the better player to be better.

Iceman, how about you just ask me why I think what I think, instead of going on a soapbox and making assumptions that I have a defeatist attitude, ok?

I have my doubts about Young not just because he had a dreadful 2012, but because I see a steady drop in his BB% and ISO over the last 4 years. Sophist cued me into this possibility not being a trend, but it also COULD be a trend, and if they continue trending similarly, he'll have to post a ridiculous BAbip to be a productive offensive player.

Dan Haren, on the other hand, posted a K/9 of 7.23 last year, a BB/9 of 1.94, and despite all of the injury issues, still gave the Angels 176.2 IP and 30 starts. The injuries are a big concern, but given that he only had one DL stint last year, and that he pitched to a 2.76 ERA with a 34/6 SO/BB over his last 7 starts of the seasons (which were through the end of the regular season), I'm optimistic that he'll pitch well for them. The IP total I gave him is probably wildly optimistic, but I've always been a Haren fan.

Based on what I've read, it seems that Armaro has $20 million to play with. The question then becomes how to divide that up between a bat, an 8th inning guy and a #4 starter? Do you go all in with say $12-15 million for a Swisher or Sanchez and then try to fill the other holes cheaply or go for cheap all the way around. I say go all in on someone.

Another alternative is going back to Alfonso Soriano. You are probably looking at taking on $3-5 million per year there, then having $12-15 million for an Annibal Sanchez. I'm not sold on Soriano repeating what he did last year though.

Just for fun I was looking at what outfielders might be available in trade without giving up the farm and it's looking like Soriano or bust. I'm leaning towards putting the money in Nick Swisher, signing a Mike Adams and then bringing in a bunch of cheap starters and trying to find a Bartolo Colon or Freddy Garcia (the free agent version the Yankees got, not the version we traded Gio Gonzalez for).

This is where the Wilton Lopez trade really screwed us. If we had gotten him for cheap, then would be able to do a lot more with that $20 million. Maybe Ruben has something else like that up his sleeve? We can still package together Valle and one of our young bullpen arms for a decent reliever.

*** I see it as a 1-2 inning middle reliever, the kind of guy you bring in when your starter craps the bed.***

He's a poor man's Clay Condrey.

Elliot, I hate the Nats, too. I don't see 100 wins for them. (Weren't the Phillies supposed to win 100 games in 2012?) The division is too tough. The only way the gNats win 100 games is if they sweep all their games with the Fish and the Muts.

My 2013 Homerun predictions

Rollins 17-20
Revere 1-3
Utley 21-24
Howard 30-35
Ruiz 12-16
Young 4-7
Brown 15-18
Ruf 18-22

Haren is such a good bet that the Angels wouldn't touch him with a 10 foot pole this off-season and neither would the Cubs after they saw his medical records in the Marmol/Haren trade proposal.

I hope the Nationals win 100+ regular season games as, historically speaking, that greatly lessens the odds they'll become WFC.

lewis: I think I'd be tempted to take the under in almost every single one of your predictions. With the possible exception of Howard, Young and Ruf, if I knew he would actually get playing time. Young is probably the only one I'd definitively take the over on.

yankees won the WS with over 100 wins -_-

What about Francour? I believe it's a salary year for him. I think he gets about 6mil annual.

Len39: agreed, I think the majority of the money left should be put into the offense, with the remainder on a reliever and starter.

I'm willing to go risky on the 5th starter since I believe veteran back end rotation guys are almost always way overpriced. And I think we have enough promise in some bullpen arms that we don't need to spend for a "lock" 8th inning guy. Many people on here have pointed out the rising success rate of failed starters converted to the bullpen, so I would be in the market for some pitchers who fit the mold as well.

But there's no hiding a starting Corner OF. Phils are already taking risks with DOM, Mayberry/Nix, etc. in one corner so you absolutely need to compensate that with real production in the other.

Corner OF represent some of the best hitters in baseball, the Phillies would be so outmatched in that category by the competition that I don't think they can overcome it enough anywhere else.

Fata, yeah, I'm talking about more the commentariat on the whole. But your love of Haren and apocalyptic talk on Young last week is just really bizarre. Like NEPP said, the Cubs wouldn't even trade Marmol for him and the Angels, in need of pitching, didn't want him back- and they could've had him if they wanted to tender him a contract.

It's a huge question mark, and the wildly optimistic prediction for him just strikes me as a bit weird. I also don't think their rotation is so far and away the best in the division that it's not even an argument.* I don't think they will repeat their numbers from last year.

*DISCLAIMER: I think the Nats are the team to beat in the division right now, so I don't want Jack to twist this into me slamming Rizzo, the Nats, Strasburg, or the Braves.

I'll bet the under on every single one of lewis's homerun predictions, save for Michael Young (for whom I'll bet the over), and Rollins (for whom that over-under seems about right). I'd bet the over for Ruf too if I thought Cholly would be willing to give him more than 200 to 250 ABs, but I don't.

If you are taking the under, Jack, then we are doomed to be in the 20s rankings in home run leaders, we need some power in that outfield if we want to contend for just the 2 wildcard slot.

Didn't see Jack's post before I posted mine, but we seem to be on the exact same wavelength.

lewis: Since 1980 only the Yankees (1998, 2009), Mets (1986) & Tigers (1984) have won the World Series after posting 100+ win regular seasons. More than half of teams who won 100+ regular season games failed to even get to the World Series.

Iceman, it's fine if you disagree. I fully admit my Haren prediction is wildly optimistic, but like I said, i've always been a fan of his. i also said that IF Haren resembles the same pitcher in 2011, they would be, without argument, the best rotation in baseball. That's a big if, as you've stated. But if he's 2011 Haren, they have 3 aces on that staff, with a good #2 and a more than capable 3/4 at the backend.

I believe its too big of a risk to go into the season with Ruf starting.Seasons over bat could be cooled and he still isnt used to the OF.If he can be a 25 Hr 85-90 RBI guy i would be pleased though.

positive noteon Ruf was that in s 162 game season in the majors, he was on pace for 38 homers and 109 RBIs.

NEPP - I say more like 'homeless man's Clay Condrey'

Never been the same pitcher since he hurt his elbow back in '09. Numbers even at AAA last year at Toledo stunk walking more hitters than he Ked in 36 IP.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Zach-Miner

Fata- yeah, you are right that if Haren does what you're predicting, they'll be far and away the best unless Halladay fully bounces back and the Phils go get Dempster.

In a short series I'd still take Lee-Hamels against their top 2, but right now with the question marks surrounding Halladay, I'd take their depth over the Phils.

Counting AAA, the majors, and the VSL, I think we're about 60 to 65 games into this, "Darrin Ruf isn't used to the OF" refrain now. His error total in those 60 to 65 games, I believe, is 0.

People really think Howard might be under 30 HRs? Seriously? If he plays a full season?

The other numbers are a bit high, with the exception of Young. Revere will never hit a HR that isn't inside-the-park.

"positive note on Ruf was that in s 162 game season in the majors, he was on pace for 38 homers and 109 RBIs."

Hide the women and children. This is not going to be pretty.

**** His error total in those 60 to 65 games, I believe, is 0.****

Coincidentally, the number of balls he's actually fielded is also 0.

I dont understand your comment, bay_area_phan?

NEPP: Even better. That shows that he knows his strengths and weaknesses, and doesn't try to do things he doesn't do well. It's like Dennis Rodman, who got 15 rebounds a game & played great defense, but knew to get out of the way while the team's scorers were taking all the shots.

If he's healthy enough to stay on the field, Howard will finish the '13 season w/ 30+ HR. Even I'm not negative enough to believe otherwise.

I agree on Howard...if he plays a full season, he'll have 30+ HRs. He might bat .230 with 200+ SOs in that same season but he'll still get 30 HRs.

lewis: I was making a vague allusion to the fact that you are about to get absolutely killed by the commetariat for projecting 12 games of stats out to a 162-game season.

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