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Thursday, December 06, 2012

Comments

I understand the Revere deal and don't think it is much of an overpay. Certainly better than offering Bourn 5 yrs/$80M beyond this this year.

May was a mess last year in Reading. Family friend who scouts alot independently now (semi-retired) said he thinks May ultimately ends up contributing as a reliever at the MLB level after he is converted from a starter in 3 years.

Losing Worley hurts because there is anyone to replace him but I had serious doubts he could improve much as a starter. He's value because he is cost-controlled but he has averaged under 6 IP/GS in his MLB career & hasn't made much progress on any of his offspeed stuff. Unless he gets more consistent fastball command and improves one of his offspeed pitches, he is a backend rotation type at best.

I wouldn't say though that the Phils didn't value Worley. They did but he was one of the few MLB-proven talent they had as a trade chip.

Compared to the other options discussed and the remaining free agents ... Hard not to like this as A PART of the off season plan. Young player, still ascending and he is controlled for another 4 years.

We have to replace Worley, but there are more options there than the CF shelf in FA.

Nice move Rube.

Jeff Passan@JeffPassanEarly verdict: Twins got monster return for Ben Revere. Executive sees Trevor May as at least No. 3 starter, Worley as solid back-end guy.

Don't like it at all...closed 1 hole and opened another.

Is this Ender's end?

Nice move Rube?

Hell no!

Worley gone causes just as big of a hole.

May is a good prospect too. Amaro got fleeced.

I hate him.

The Phillies selected an OF in the Rule 5 draft. Adjust all roster projections to include this man, no matter the circumstances.

I think we paid full price for Revere...if not a little too much.


Anyone who sees May as a #3 is deluding themselves.

The comments on the Twins blogs all seem to love this deal. That can't be good for us

Oh yeah GTown, I hear you on the pop. A few of us have been commenting on it. Ruben is probably banking on Mayberry to provide it. I mean look at what he did at the end of the year! That worked out well entering 2012 so why not try it again right?

Yeah, but one of those problems (CF) was much harder to fix than the other (SP).

If Bonzo Madrid couldn't stop Ender, I dont see how Paul Revere will.

Geez. There were plenty of posters bashing May as recently as last week.

Dealing Worley doesn't cause as big of a hole as some would like to think.

Precursor to a Swisher signing or a Hamilton signing?

Yes, it's an overpay, & one which makes little sense considering the rotation is now a starter short.

To repeat: there MUST be a further move to add a power bat, or all of this will be for naught. Charlie's entire managerial approach to offense depends on XBH, & that's not going to change. Quite frankly, I'm not certain even one bat will make much of a difference at this point, but better one than none.

Sophist - Yeah although it would have been nice if this had been Fowler instead.

I can only imagine what the Rockies were asking of the Phils and decent chance the Phils didn't have the MLB-ready positional prospects to make a deal work.

Agree with NEPP. The control issues are May's problems. Will probably end up as a reliever regardless of his talent.

Have to wait and see what other move the Phils make.

Agree that the moves made so far (Young/Revere) don't really improve the team on the whole but I would be stunned if the Phils don't acquire at least one major signing via FA yet.

Revere had a higher fWAR than BJ Upton last year. Funny.

MG - People are upset to see May go. Can't imagine what the reaction would have been to Fowler deal.

Grilli resigns with Pittsburgh.

Just can't figure put why the Gnats were handed Denard Spann for next to nothing and the Phillies had to cough up a starter and a prospect for Revere.

MG - Phils haven't traded for Young (yet).

Bourn, Year 3 (age 25): 514 PA, 229/.288/.300/.588, 57 OPS+

Revere, Year 3 (age 24): 553 PA, .294/.333/.342/.675, 89 OPS+

And Revere can hit both LHP and RHP.

FWIW, Bourn the next year hit .285/.354/.384/.738 97 OPS+ in 678 PA.

Well, the Phillies just sent me a text message trumpeting the Revere trade, so count me in! Anyone know if Modell's has his jersey in stock yet?

I think the Phils viewed Worley as they used to view Happ. At the time of his departure I felt badly about the loss of Happ, but the Phils ended up being right on that, and maybe they're right in betting that Worley has already peaked as well.

Just can't figure put why the Gnats were handed Denard Spann for next to nothing and the Phillies had to cough up a starter and a prospect for Revere.

Posted by: Michden56 | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 01:03 PM

Well that's just not true. The prospect the Nats gave up was a darn good prospect.

Now if they pull the trigger on the Young deal, will they have the oldest infield in baseball?

Michden: The Nats gave up a very good prospect for Span.

According to Salisbury, the Young trigger has already been pulled - they are just waiting on Young himself to decide whether or not to waive his 10/5 rights.

They traded a young, useful player at a position (SP) that is an organizational and FA market strength for a young, useful player at a position (CF) that is an organizational and FA market weakness.

I legitimately do not understand the hand-wringing, although maybe I just haven't been around BL enough recently.

I think the Phils must be pretty high on Petttibone and Martin to make this trade.

Edwin Jackson, Shawn Marcum. Lots of ways to replace Worley's production for less than other CF options.

Losing May for Revere is nothing to get worked up about. Worely though will mean more moves have to be made. Should be interesting.

I'm ok with this trade as one part of the puzzle. Worley is decent, but doesn't have much upside. He seems best compared to JA Happ and does anyone here miss Happ? May seems on the decline and isn't going to do us any good this year anyway. This is a team that needs to win now.

We wanted this team to get younger and more athletic. It just did. More importantly, Revere is cheap and this should be the precursor to other moves. I'm thinking we swoop in on Nick Swisher now. He makes too much sense in this offense.

***they are just waiting on Young himself to decide whether or not to waive his 10/5 rights.***

Please say no, please say no...

Ben Revere makes some damn good plays. I'm excited to see him patrol center at CBP. Price may of been a bit high, but oh well.

I'd feel a little better about the Revere deal if I knew May was going to fizzle the way he did this past year. I don't think Worley is going to get any better than he already is. But that's risk for you.

IT's kind of funny... but Kendrick's emergence the end of last year is what made Worley "expendable" in the mind of the Phillies FO. They figure there are enough FA SPs to fill the 5th starter at a reasonable price.

We would have had to give up Jesse Biddle to get Span...for a comparison of Alex Meyer's value.

"The Phillies obviously had to give up some value to get some. Do you think they gave up too much?"

Maybe a bit, but not too much. I think Cloyd plus May would have been more reasonable. But it's still better than 5 years and $75M+ for Bourn.

The Phillies are really high on Pettibone, Martin and Morgan according to Zolecki. So even though they may sign a guy to fill Worley's spot in the rotation, I would hope one of those guys makes it to the bigs in the next year or so.

Couple things: the hand-wringing, even by BL standards, is out of control. Sure, clearly, RAJ is done and has no idea the outfield as currently constructed has no holes. Give me a break. (And I'm NOT a Rube guy).

I'm not bothered much by the loss of Worley. Sure, he pitched great last year, but he was hurt and obviously not nearly as effective last season. His stuff isn't overpowering or overwhelming IMO, but he does know how to pitch. He's a guy that is not terribly difficult to replace, IMO.

Somebody had a great post earlier about Swisher. I like the idea a lot. We need a versatile, OBP guy like him near the top of the lineup. Don't remember him being much in the field, though. Is he at least average?

To be fair everyone in Minnesota is always happy and optimistic. They would love any trade because the word "Twins" would appear in a rotoworld headline.

Not a big fan of the Revere move, although we needed someone in the OF. At least you know he isn't taking steroids.

Why do people think Tyler Cloyd has any real trade value? His upside is 5th starter. He's not a real prospect.

This trade for Revere is as much about the fact that the Phils have ZERO legit CF prospects in the minors right now.

***At least you know he isn't taking steroids.***

Hi guys!!!

A clubhouse containing both Papelbon AND Swisher? That'll be fun.

This may have been a sell high on Worley, but it's still an overpay for Revere.

And bringing in Young, for any reason other than utility guy, would prove one thing: That Rube was evaluating baseball talent . . . three years ago. He will make us think more of Wiggy than Polly on defense. Heck, we got Fontenot for nothing last year and he was hitting better than Young when they dumped him for a couple of errors. The only positive may be that Lindbomb goes to TX and TX picks up 15 mil of salary. Otherwise, this may have been Rube's second worst day as GM, right after the day he traded Lee to Seattle. (Although, getting Doc made up for that to some degree, so this may actually be the worst.)

And let's not forget. The guy he picked up in the rule 5 looks to be very much like Revere also. Why didn't he just resign Pierre?

Yeah, Cloyd + May is sorta laughable. Revere is like 1/30th Bourn's price and at least 50% of his value (if not as valuable as Bourn declines) and under team control for a long time.

This trade is all about how accurate the org was at evaluating Worley going forward. I'm still loath to trade such a young, cheap, upside-potential starter, but if they had him pegged as a regression candidate and they're correct, more power to them. Interesting to think about the Happ example as it is really pretty similar on the face of things.

The Cubs signed Schierholtz for over $2M. Phils technically could have been able to trade him, but ah well, it would have likley been for nothing.

According to Heyman, Braves tried for Revere. As usual, nothing exists in a vacuum, so it appears we had to outbid for Revere.

A clubhouse containing both Papelbon AND Swisher? That'll be fun.

They can finally find out who wins the "wet vs. dry" contest from that electric shaver commercial.


And let's not forget. The guy he picked up in the rule 5 looks to be very much like Revere also. Why didn't he just resign Pierre?

Posted by: aksmith | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 01:18 PM


Because Pierre is old and got an offer for over $1 mil from the Marlins. Pretty simple actually.

I don't mind the Revere move long-term, though I should note that I don't see the bat as ever being good enough to make him more than a complimentary player on a good team. And I hope he doesn't qualify as a Super Two next season--can anyone with better knowledge of that process speak to that? Because by his second year of arbitration, his salary might start to catch up to his value on the field.

What I don't see yet is a better team on the field for 2013. And that's fine--I've been more resigned than most about the need to rebuild. I'm just acknolwedging I don't think it does much for 2013.

"Outstanding, young, and controllable"? Sounds like the Labrador I've been walking for a few days.
This is most definitely not Rube's last move.

aksmith: "And let's not forget. The guy he picked up in the rule 5 looks to be very much like Revere also. Why didn't he just resign Pierre?"

Because its not 2003.

According to Heyman, Braves tried for Revere. As usual, nothing exists in a vacuum, so it appears we had to outbid for Revere.

Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Thursday, December 06, 2012 at 01:21 PM

That can't be true. Everything pertaining to the moves the Phillies make happens in a vacuum. Are you new here?

I was never a big Worley guy. I think he was overachieving in '11 and came back to earth in '12. I see him being another Blanton-type guy: goes about 5 1/3 innings, gives up 4-5 runs a game, which isn't great. I don't mind seeing him go.

Revere won't be eligible for arbitration until AFTER the 2014 season. Right now, only Cliff, Cole, Hamels and Papelbon are under contract for 2015 (of course, that's for $86.5M).

And yet a Blanton type guy gets you a 2 year deal for $15 million...

All right, here's my prediction:

- Sign Greinke (7 years, $23.5M per)
- Trade Doc for to the Yankees for Curtis Granderson and David Phelps. Granderson plays RF; Phelps replaces Worley in the rotation.
- Trade De Fratus and a middling prospect to the Rangers for Michael Young ($12M of Young's $16M salary covered). Young starts at 3B.
- Trade Valle, Galvis, and Laynce Nix to the Mariners for Tom Wilhelmsen, who becomes our new RH setup man, and Brendan Ryan, who becomes Young's late-inning defensive replacement at 3B.

That brings us in at a total cost of about $24M in additional salaries (remember, Doc-to-Granderson clears $5M), and leaves us with this roster:

LINEUP:
SS Rollins
3B Young
2B Utley
1B Howard
C Ruiz
RF Granderson
LF Ruf
CF Revere

BENCH:
OF/1B Mayberry
OF Brown
UT Ryan
UT Frandsen
C Kratz

ROTATION:
Lee, Hamels, Greinke, Phelps, Kendrick

BULLPEN:
Papelbon, Wilhelmsen, Bastardo, Aumont, Horst, Lindblom, Stutes/Rosenberg/Cloyd/Valdes

I actually don't mind the looks of that.

The MOPS projections for front offices just came out, and they are updated for recent events inc. M. Young and B. Revere.

They've got Ruben Amaro Jr. down for -9.5 gmWAR

found some scouting reports, Revere's arm sucks. His range is ridiculously good, but a little disappointing he's not complete package.

The secret of "cost-control" is that it only really nets you real surplus value in the first few years. By the time guys are second and third-year arb eligible, they are likely pretty close to their market value. Take Kyle Kendrick, for instance. The Phillies bought out his first and second year of arb eligibility for $3 million and $4.5 million.

Is Kendrick a deal at $4.5 million? Maybe. But a guy like Scott Baker is probably a better pitcher, and he just got a $5.5 million deal from the Cubs. So you're not getting much of a bargain there.

Look at Hunter Pence. The Giants are going to pay him $13-14 million this year. Is that a deal? Eh.

How is their universal handwringing over this deal? I see a pretty varied arrays of opinions on Revere with some 'yeahs' and 'nays.' I probably put myself in the 'yeah' camp.

If anything at posting at Beerleaguer has taught it, it is that there are a ton of lawyers on this site (really hope not billing their clients while so do), there is a lot of back and forth but usually at fairly tame standards for the Internet, and that there is almost never universal agreement on ANYTHING here, and clout will always remind people of what a dumbass they were for regardless of how minor or long ago it was.

ColonelTom, that's damn good work. You're hired!

Then again, not sold on Revere as the CF of the future.

2011: .619 OPS, .293 BABIP off a 14% LD rate, 5.4 BB%
2012: .675 OPS, .325 BABIP off a 14% LD rate, 5.2 BB%

Don't see much offensive upside going forward except MAYBE on the basepaths. Really is a Pierrean player.

You could make the case for Revere that he is still developing to some degree and may improve to some degree as he enters his prime. He is only 24 and entering his third full season in the majors.

ctom: you raelly call that your "prediction"? Its good to talk about and all, but if you predict that will actually happen, good luck.

It's kinda funny to me that so much of the talk last season was about how the Phillies needed to dump salary so they could be big spenders in the offseason, & now that the offseason has rolled around those same Phillies are being complimented for their new-found attention to cost control.

Jack: He'll be cheap for 2013 and 2014 before arbitration. In his first year of arbitration, barring him becoming a superstar, he's probably going to get about $3M. Maybe $5M in his second year. If he progresses as expected, that's not expensive for the next 4 seasons.

Dammit, the Seibu Lions got Spilborghs!

I do not mind the trade pieces but I was hoping they could get something better than Revere. Best case for Revere is Juan Pierre. And we have Gillies and Collier in minors, whose only value is if they stay in CF?

At least get Bourjos for that price. I am not a fan of Fowler due to his poor defense and home splits but even he'd be a better choice due to his power and possibility to play a corner OF spot eventually.

I was really hoping they could swing a Worley for Ellsbury deal.

Terrific move. Not an overpay given the current parameters. Revere meets or exceeds all goals: CF who can defend, comes cheap, and allows for more flexibility. Now the Phils can turn their attention to a RH bat, at third or corner OF. Kudos.

Dave - They probably aren't done spending though.

It probably gave Rube withdrawal like symptoms to not act first and foremost giving Greinke a 6 yr/$150M deal but have to see what other shoes drop.

"Edwin Jackson, Shawn Marcum. Lots of ways to replace Worley's production for less than other CF options."

Either of those would probably be an upgrade over what Worley does this year, I bet.

lorecore: Great Range/Bad Arm. I seem to remember a guy like that patrolling CF for the phils for a the past couple years?

Kaplan missed the chance to write the header:

"Listen Beerleaguers and you will hear of the midday trade of Ben Revere."

I like the 24 yr old very controllable CF. His game last year in less than a full season was very promising. Worley and May are a fair price to pay. Give me more RAJ I'm still hungry for something on that hot stove.

Jack: I think what you're saying is true for certain skill sets. Hunter Pence is a high-BA, high-HR, high-RBI guy with below-average plate discipline and defense. Those types of players seem to be overpaid by the arbitration process.

Michael Bourn, on the other hand, was certainly a bargain at $2.4M, $4.4M, and $6.8M for the last 3 years. To use another player with the same kind of skill set, Angel Pagan was a bargain at $1.5M, $3.5M, $4.9M the last 3 years.

Out of all our young bullpen prospects, DeFratus is probably the only one I would actually care about losing. I wouldn't trade him for Michael Young. Then again, I wouldn't trade anyone for Michael Young since I don't have any interest in him. But if I did trade a reliever for him, DeFratus would be about the last one I'd trade.

If his bat is only good enough to be a good complimentary player, I wouldn't worry too much about Super Two status.

Errrrabody relax. This is, at least, an intriguing move. This Revere kid has a decent upside and comes affordably. Worley isn't the only guy to pitch in the 4 slot for the Phillies. I imagine that Jesse Biddle isn't far from making to CBP. In the meantime, a collection of Cloyd and others, either from FA, waivers or the Minors, could work out alright.

If Revere learns to be more selective and cultivate better BB numbers, he's gonna score a ton of runs in this lineup.

Juan Pierre was a valuable player throughout the 2000s. He was just given a stupid contract. And Revere's fWAR last year, even with that OPS, was better than all but 2 of Pierre's best in his career (and Pierre got a ton more PA and playing time than Revere did last year with MIN).

Again, 3.4 fWAR in 2012. BJ Upton's was 3.3.

lorecore - obviously it won't go down exactly like that, but that's how the pieces are lining up. If RAJ signs Greinke and trades for Young, they'll have to trade for an OF (no way Ruf and Brown both start every day, for defensive reasons) and another SP (Cloyd isn't the answer) and make it salary-neutral or better.

RAJ just burned his top young trade chip, Worley, in the Revere deal. Moving Doc for a big bat also in the final year of a contract makes perfect sense if Greinke is signed. They could also deal Doc to a team for prospects and either sign or trade for a corner OF from somebody else.

Again, prediction's probably the wrong word, but that's a framework for where I see this headed.

Ugh i just looked at the FA pitching....Brett Myers is on the list. 5th starter and experience in bullpen, please god no.

2012 OPS
Revere: .675
Mayberry: .695

Under/over lame Paul Revere/Ben Revere jokes or references by Wheels next year:

50?
100?
Higher?

As for other important news - What is up with TMac's contract or lack thereof? Replacement in the wings because TMac is demanding too much money (one can hope).

Yeah, those posts are really clever. It's not 2003? Then why is Michael Young on the way to Philly. I think Rube may still have a 2003 calendar on the wall.

As your clever folk know, Revere's bat is pretty much like Pierre's. That's the point. Rube just gave up his cheap 4 or 5 starter and a top ten prospect (who was a sell low guy) for no more production than Pierre gave him last year. And all he cost was a little over a million.

Do we think Revere plays 140 or more games this year?

DH Phils: That's a good point.

No way Myers ever returns. They were incredibly sick of him.

I imagine that Jesse Biddle isn't far from making to CBP.

He just turned 21 and pitched last year in A+ ball. He'll spend most, if not all, of this year at Reading. I wouldn't expect to see him in Philly until late 2014 or 2015.

Revere's fWAR last year was twice Pierre's with the Phillies. Pierre is not a good defender anymore.

People are saying the best case is Juan Pierre like that's a bad thing. The best case is a long career that ends up with 2500 hits? That's a pretty good best case. (I am not implying this is likely)

What was the best case for Worley?

Wait, T-Mac might be gone? If this is true I couldn't care less about the roster. Losing T-Mac is winning at everything else.

Myers? About as likely as Rolen.

Pierre WITH very good defense in CF.

That's still not a cornerstone of a team, but it's a decent baseball player.

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