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Friday, December 07, 2012

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IMHO, the Twins will get more value from Vanimal than the Phils will from Revere.

Trevor who?

Call me when he makes the bigs.

Ludwick off the board.

Didn't everyone bitch when Phils gave up all those can't miss prospects in the Halladay and Lee trades? Has one made an impact??? You take risks to get better. This move makes them better and you control him for years.

I'm always very skeptical of arguments that ask me to look at a guy's 2nd half numbers, and ignore his 1st half numbers. To be sure, improved 2nd half numbers CAN be evidence of mechanical changes & lasting improvement. But, more often than not, they simply mean that all players have ups and downs over the course of a 6-month season -- and sometimes those ups happen to fall in the season's 2nd half.

bay_area_phan: In general, I agree with you, although I'd say the idea of "improvement" holds more merit the younger the player is.

Depends on what Ludwick got. Latest I saw was 2 yrs/$14M projected but he at least 2 other legit offers on the table.

He's tailor-made for Cincinnati though with that short porch that he pulled a ton of balls into last year.

Put up really good numbers there in his career now & has over a .900 career OPS there in nearly 400 PAs.

McCarthy off the board.

I think McCarthy's deal will be more indicative of the market than Blanton's.

2yrs, around 15 is the rumor

KAS: Sure. I would agree with that. But, since second half improvement which represents a genuine breakthrough looks suspiciously similar to second half improvement which represents a fleeting hot streak, I need to actually see the lasting improvement before I'll accept that that's what it is. I only mention it because we hear these types of claims all the time -- most recently with Mayberry, during the 2nd half of 2011.

The time you realized you only talked Trevor May up when he was your prospect.

Iceman - Probably. The strangest deal though this offeason was the Royals resigning Guthrie to that 3 yr/$25M deal.

Then again they were the only team in MLB that probably would have signed Chen to a multi-year deal last offseason.

Can't even more him for nothing in return this offseason basically to dump his $4.5M salary.

Time will tell, but a Major League starting pitcher & a top pitching prospect -- even one who has hit a rough patch -- feels like a lot to give up for a guy like Revere. I have to think the odds are in Minnesota's favor in this deal.

Why no love for Nick Swisher? Decent fielder, switch-hitter w/ pop. Perfect as #5 in the order.

Remember when Kyle Drabek was deemed untouchable? He has struggled in the bigs and is now on the 60 day DL with elbow issues and listed as questionable for ST.

Plenty of "love" for Swisher. Look back.

Swisher is too expensive. If the Phil's intent is to keep under luxury tax threshold, they can't afford Swisher. They can't really afford anybody.

Now if they decide to go over the threshold, might as well blow it out of the water.

Pitching Prospects We've Traded:

1. Josh Outman: TJ surgery, never developed
2. Carlos Carrasco: Major surgery, never reached potential
3. Jason Knapp: Multiple major surgeries, now a Penn student
4. Kyle Drabek: Major surgery, ??
5. JA Happ: Yeah, enough said.
6. Gio Gonzalez: Kinda seriously worked out.
7. Gavin Floyd: Kinda worked out.


So 2 out of the 7 I thought of in 10 seconds actually worked out and only 1 is a star.

I'll roll the dice on May not reaching his potential.

sophist: "Jack - why? I don't have any reason to believe either way but I haven't seen anything suggesting decisions can't complement one another and that a good defender could have a compounding effect on Lee's run prevention and a greater effect overall. What I mean is that, once you've established some great run prevention types, it may be easier, cheaper, more efficient to prevent more runs than gain the same overall advantage by adding runs scored."

Exactly so. At some point you reach a tipping point in run prevention. If your pitching is already good, it's easier to reach that tipping point by adding defense than to try to reach a balanced or offensive run tipping point by adding offense, no?

I would have been happier if the same 2 phillies ( Worley/may) & add a Valle might have brought D. Fowler to Philly, who I think is a more complete CF than Revere..

*** They can't really afford anybody.***

We have $20+ million to spend and stay under...how is it you think they "can't afford anybody."

Fowler would have been preferable but apparently his asking price was astronomical. So, I'm okay with Revere given that.

As I noted in the earlier thread, May seems to be a slow learner. It's not like his troubles at Reading came out of the blue. He's had to repeat his last two levels and certainly will have to repeat Double A for at least half a season.

That said, if he works out, he's got the stuff to be a #2. But if I'm betting, I'm betting with NEPP.

I'd like to know exactly what Colorado thinks Fowler is worth. I wasn't too high on ol' Dexter initially, but Revere is so very underwhelming to me that he all of a sudden looks pretty good.

Has May developed a 3rd pitch yet? That was another concern with him...beyond his noted control issues.

I mean, I hope for his sake he does reach some of his potential (if, for no other reason it will make teams continue to want to trade for our prospects) but I just don't see it happening. I expect he ends up as a reliever...maybe even a late-innings guy.

***I'd like to know exactly what Colorado thinks Fowler is worth***

They asked the Braves for Mike Minor & Julio Teheren or Randall Delgado.

With the Reds, they wanted "Leake and at least two more prospects".

Seems pretty high.

Amaro says they are going with a 'low salary, high reward' pitcher for 5th starter. Sounds like BAP was right on the money.

If they do go that route, I'd like to see them pursue Charlie Villenueva.

How does May have the stuff to be even a middle rotation starter right now? He has a 92-93 MPH 4-seam fastball which he doesn't consistent command of and a good curve.

Needs to add at a minimum a consistent fastball variation (2-seamer) and improve his changeup.

His stuff though works for a reliever and that is where I think he ends up. Reliever who throws regularly at 94 and has a decent curve. Little odd for a reliever but he has the necessary offspeed pitch to be a solid reliever.

If the Reds get Fowler for a combo of Leake, another good starting pitching prospect, and a catching prospect, hard to see how the Phils weren't able to get Fowler.

*** They can't really afford anybody.***

We have $20+ million to spend and stay under...how is it you think they "can't afford anybody."

Posted by: NEPP | Friday, December 07, 2012 at 06:14 PM

They have ~ $21M. I am assuming we get Young. Let's call it $5 Million to him. That is $16 Million for a SP, RF, and a set-up....and that is giving Rube no flexibility for mid season acquisitions.

They really don't have much money if their intent is to stay under the luxury tax.

Low salary/high reward comes off as kind of cheap for a team which just lost a starting pitcher & wasn't supposed to be afraid of the luxury tax anymore.

MG

Exactly!

I'm well aware of the numbers, noname.

What people seem to be completely leaving out on Revere is that Amaro paid for, in part, possible unrealized potential. He is 24 and there is a decent chance he turns into 'a rich man's version' of what he is now. This is a strategy that many have wanted him to employ for quite some time now.

If Revere's ceiling (Juan Pierre with better defense) is realized, he's a very valuable commodity to have. He just needs to be complimented with players that can drive the ball. I remember a few commenters talking about what Pierre in his prime would have been like on the 2006-2009 squad that absolutely mashed, and that's what I think of when I think of Revere's potential. He isn't a superstar or a power threat, but he's a valuable piece to a team that will have to reshape itself in the coming years. Given that he'll be part of the team through 2017, I think this was a good place to start.

Dave - When did they ever say though that they weren't afraid of the luxury tax threshold?

noname - $16M is still a fair amount to play with even if they want to leave themselves at least $2-3M under the cap going into the season that leaves them $13-$14M.

I agree that they won't get a big-name player (including Swisher) and it is going to require Amaro to really guess on the next 2-3 moves he makes.

MG: They didn't. I'm taking a backhanded slap at those who insisted the Phillies dumped salary last season in order to spend, spend spend this offseason.

You're also off on your numbers, they have about $20 million AFTER they add Young.

They're at $142.3 Million for 22 players right now...(that's AAV, not this year's salary). If they add Young for $5 million, that puts them up to $146.7 Million (subtracting Lindblom's $600K and adding Young). We'd have 3 openings and about $20 million assuming $2 million for the other 40 man positions and then $10 million for medical.

$146.7 Million=22 players
$2.0 Million=#26-40 on roster
$10.0 Million=Medical and benefits
----------------------------------
$158.7 Million committed to 37 players

That leaves us with $19.3 million for 3 players if we want to stay under the luxury tax.

NEPP - Say $15-$16M to give themselves some roster flexibility and easily say under the luxury tax threshold for 3 players.

That's more than enough though to fill the Phils remaining needs. Amaro just has to make a couple of shrewd secondary signings and this is where his track record is pretty mixed at best.


I'd say that's a fair guess, MG.

$15 million to sign 3 players...1 of which should only cost at most $2 million and that's a veteran reliever.

GTown, I agree.

Maybe I overvalue Worley, but you can't quibble with results, and he had good results when he was healthy.

The rule of thumb was/is that you never trade a full-time position player for a pitcher who will affect the outcome of far less games.

So, the "rule" would indicate that the Twinkies shouldn't have done it.

However, with the dearth of quality pitching in MLB right now, I who do they think they have that will pitch as well as a healthy Worley has the last 2 seasons? KK? Yeah, right.

For those of you comapring Fowler and Rever and what it would cost to get Fowler, remember.... Fowler is slated to make far more money than Revere.

For all of the fuss too that is going to be made about the signings over the next month, it is still is down to what I say are the Big 3:

1. Can Halladay rebound to his closer to his '10-'11 numbers?

2. Can Howard rebound to his pre-Achilles numbers in '10-'11 (basically an .850 OPS guy with 30+ HRs)?

3. Can Utley can play in at least 145 G (maybe even 150 G) this year?

If the answer isn't 'yes' on at least 2 of these 3 questions, the Phils won't make the playoffs next year regardless of what moves Amaro makes before spring training starts.

There are ways to lower the tax hit during the season. For example, if either Utley or Halladay get off to good starts, you could extend them and lower their AAV (I doubt Doc will get $20 M a year on another contract thought Utley MIGHT get $12 M if he bounces back all the way).

Rube just has to be creative.

awh - Maybe $4-$4.5M this year. Only his 1st year of being arbitration eligible in '13.

If Halladay, Howard and Utley dont show up at close to their previous form, nothing Rube does will matter.

That is 100% accurate.

Fowler vs Revere is also one of those considerations for cost going forward in 2014 and 2015 where our budget will still be tight and having a cheap CF will help them immensely.


The more I look at it, the more I like the Revere deal as it gave the the financial flexibility they need.

I hope to God that Howard is working his arse off this winter and he shows up to ST in "the best shape of his life". etc. I'd like to see how his leg responds to a full winter of rehab and strengthening exercises.

Any interest on moderate salaried one-year deals for two former Astro teammates w/high upside and significant injury risks (Oswalt and Berkman)? The FO apparently kicked the tires on Berkman a few weeks back so it's not totally unprecedented. He could platoon with Ruf, Brown, and Howard. His defense probably wouldn't be noticeably worse than any of those three, and later in the year we could bring up Gillies if we needed a defensive caddy.

I agree with MG and NEPP... those three are far more important than any offseason move.

I'm optimistic about all of them, especially Utley.

NEPP, if any consolation, word is that Utley is a man on a mission...

Clout: I have no idea what your "tipping point" theory means. Can you explain a little further?

Please see my last post at the bottom of the last thread. I don't get why a run saved isn't equal to a run scored. I think people might be falling into the trap of "double counting" runs saved on defense and pitching.

BTW, no one is debating that those three caveats are more important than any move RAJ may or may not make. But, he still has to make moves, you see. Which is why we're talking about said moves. A bit more engaging than debating about whether or not Halladay/Howard/Utley show up as some semblance of themselves. We have to assume that they're trying to do exactly that.

If Berkman could play the OF consistently, he'd be worth a look for LF.

It'd depend on his knees holding up (I think its his knees anyway). I think he ends up back in Houston as their DH personally. He still kills RHP and he's not brutal against LHP.

A Ruf/Berkman platoon would be interesting in LF.

***BTW, no one is debating that those three caveats are more important than any move RAJ may or may not make. But, he still has to make moves, you see. ***

I think we all agree to that.

All I know is the better Halladay says he feels, the worse I expect him to pitch.

I'm pretty confident in Howard. He couldn't have looked worse last year after the injury. And he still hit 14 HRs in 71 games. I don't have high hopes for his batting average, but I would be shocked if he doesn't reach 30/100.

"NEPP, if any consolation, word is that Utley is a man on a mission..."

Unfortunately, that mission is to convince his insurance company to pay for the double limb amputation procedure that he expects to undergo early next year.

Universal agreement on Beerleaguer???

***All I know is the better Halladay says he feels, the worse I expect him to pitch.***

Word is he was out hiking in the Canadian Rockies yesterday and started suffering from heat exhaustion in -57 F weather.

The only caveat I'll make on the Big 3 returning to form: I dont think Doc needs to be the guy he was in 2011 for us to make the playoffs. I think he can be more like a solid 2/3 pitcher and we'll be fine. Cole is our Ace now and Lee is still a damn good pitcher.

"low salary, high reward." Harden or Webb??

Dice-K?

He'd be in his 2nd year back from TJ surgery so if there's anything left in the tank, it'll probably show up in 2013.

How about Francisco Liriano...as a reliever?

3 of the past 4 years he's had ERAs over 5 and he's entering his Age 29 season. He'd be a good bullpen conversion project.

Dice-K, No.

Liriano, Maybe.

Just throwing names out there for discussion.

These are your typical low cost/high reward types of players.

I'd take a flyer on Liriano if it was cheap.

Trading Worley and May no big deal. Both had bad years last year. We know what Worley is and May is only a prospect who fell on the pitching prospect depth chart behind Biddle and Pettibone. Remember Kyle Drabek??

Too bad CHOP hung 'em up. We need both a starter and a late inning reliever...

(tongue firmly in cheek)

NEPP- completely with you on the Revere trade. Liked the idea when it was floated but soured on it when I heard the price. The more I think about it, the more I like the creativity of the move and the flexibility it offered.

The problem most seemed to have with the FA market was that the Phils would be paying out the nose for past-their-prime guys that would almost certainly hit their decline years towards the end of the contract. Not only did this avoid that (and then some- $500K for an everyday player is laughably inexpensive), but there is plenty of upside with Revere to give the team a lot of the value that, say, Michael Bourn would have offered- and the team is getting four years of that with Revere in his prime.

It also allows them to try something different with the rotation. While Amaro says they are looking low salary, I'd caution against believing anything he says. He also claimed they'd sign a CF through FA. It's also possible a guy could fall through the cracks like Jackson did this year and you could get a bargain in January.

I almost wonder if that's what he's shooting for with corner OF, too. Gambling that someone will surely still be around at the end that can be had at a reasonable price. Despite G-Town's fervent belief that they are going to pinch pennies because of what has happened before Christmas, I wouldn't be so sure that after Christmas people will be able to say that. With the Revere deal (and to a lesser extent the potential Younc deal), it made a lot of things possible, and the team isn't as boxed in as it was at the beginning of the week.

This trade might have looked a little better if Rube had pulled the old Gillick trick...on every deal, convince 'em to throw in a minor leaguer.

Finger, that was a nice write up. But, as you can tell, we no longer care what track May was on.

Enough already with the mulling and the ruminating and the pondering.

I disagree with several other posters on a few points:

1. It is only necessary that Halladay bounce back to his earlier form. Utley missed two months in 2011, and Howard had his worst full season in 2011. If the Phils are again a strong defensive team and if Doc bounces back, the Phils can be a top team with middling offense. Another OF addition and one at 3B can give the Phils middling offense. If the Phils were to add Hamilton as the other OF, the team's offense should be better than it was in 2011. If the team upgrades the rotation by picking up a starter who is better than Worley, that's another plus. If the Phils sign Greinke as the Worley replacement (, which means they don't sign Hamilton,) the rotation could be better than the 2011 version and the team a winner again even with a middling offense.

2. I am not optimistic about Utley. He missed two months in 2011 and half the season in 2012. I see no reason to believe that Utley will play 120 full games in 2013. The situation is intolerable, and Utley should be cut loose after next season. And he has been my favorite Phillie.

3. Worrying about the luxury tax in 2013 is utterly silly. The primary financial concern of the team should be the upcoming TV deal. The Phils should field the best team possible in order to get a max TV deal. Even if the team's payroll hits $200 million in 2013, the luxury tax will only be $4 million. Worrying about the 2013 luxury tax and not focusing on the multi-billion dollar TV deal is being penny wise, but pound foolish The team can drop below the $189 million threshold for 2014 (and get a fresh start for luxury tax purposes), for example, by dropping Utley and signing Halladay to a short deal with a $15 million AAV.

Iceman - I don't think there's that much upside with Revere, but not a big deal. He could bump his BB% a bit if he's a tad more selective, but even then your talking about a guy who'll max out at .300-.330/.330-.370/.360-.400. Given that he posted .300/.333 last year with stellar defense, he's sorta where he'll be. But that's plenty valuable. Hopefully he doesnt regress.

MLB had a great PC on Ben. Few saber stats had him as best RF. and. Lets not forget he hasn't played a full season.

DBacks got great value with McCarthy, but still not sure that's the market for some of these other SP. McCarthy has injury issues. Great pick-up though.

Don't think the Phils will sign any of the secondary (Jackson, Dempster) guys mentioned unless one of their prices drop. From what Amaro has said - and there's no reason to ever take him at face value - seems like we're looking at set-up guy and Hairston/Ross and a cheap SP.

I have a feeling this trade might end up being one of those trades that are good for both teams. Phils get what they need in a quality CFer. Twins get some young pitching.

Yeah, that's why they made the trade.

To Jfinger, Trevor May repeated A+ ball and it looks like he will repeat AA ball. Is this the traits of a great prospect? No it is not and he has been passed by many pitchers in the Phillies system- Biddle, Martin, Morgan, Wright, Pettibone in 2012 alone.

Sophist- maybe I'm putting too much weight in the Bourn comparison, but his numbers at Revere's point in his career were worse than Revere's 2012, and he took a big step forward the next year. I don't think Revere can make that kind of sizable leap from where he's at now necessarily, but I kind of see him at this point as a poor man's Juan Pierre with stellar defense. If his ceiling offensively is the actual Pierre, and he eventually hits that, while not an earth-shattering difference, it's certainly impactful, and quite valuable at the price they're paying him.

Fvck it. I'm getting Olt while waiting for Young.

I guess Young is not making a decision today.....this waiting game sucks.

Iceman - Yeah. Pierre's best line was .326/.374/.407 which is right where I pegged Revere's ceiling. Revere will give you elite defense (reportedly) on top of that.

Bourn's a little different because his contact rate is worse than Revere's and he's more selective. Pierre's a better comparison batted ball wise, and his BB% maxed out at 7.5.

The Bourn leap thing is kinda weird. He just had a down year in 2008

2007: .277/.348/.378 -- .320 BAbip
2009: .285/.354/.384 -- .330 BAbip

I mean, Bourn/Pierre/Revere 2012 aren't really that much different production wise, but Bourn isn't a great guy to look at for Revere because he has K problems. He hasn't really shown improvement plate discipline wise as his career has aged. His BB% and K% and discipline stats are all pretty much the same from early in his career, and his ISO is what it always was. Of course, Bourn was a college player and spent time in the minors. Revere isn't a college player and didn't really spend any time in AAA, and not much in AA either.

I'm sure we'll see normal variation in his BB% and BAbip. It's possible he'll learn some eye but I bet he's a lot like Pierre and will max out at Pierre's line (but with elite D).

That makes Revere a really valuable player, of course. Just not sure how much promise he has. All those normal comps didn't really show that much improvement. The argument I was having before was that it's possible for a player like Revere to increase his BB% (look at Scutaro). I just don't know how many guys in their mid-20s with hundreds of MLB PA change their O-Swing % all that much. Would be interested in taking a look and learning more about Revere though.

Must be a time limit on Young making his decision.
Anybody know what it is?

Wonder how cheap Carlos Villanueva will go for

Actually, Villanueva would be a very nice under-the-radar signing. I could see his being a pretty decent swingman/bullpen arm, who could step into the starting rotation if someone goes down.

Wow, completely botched Villanueva's name. Obviously I meant I think they should target the baseball player Carlos and not the basketball player Charlie.

So, if we're going for a low-salary, high-reward starter (which is fine with me), and a low-salary centerfielder, and a (relatively) low-salary 3rd baseman, it's fair to ask: WTF are they saving their money for, and why aren't we going full-bore after either Swisher or Hamilton?

I'm feeling an imminent trade following a refusal by Michael Young.

I guess they just don't want either player at their demands -- just don't see it as a good investment. I don't know. Or we really don't know what they'll do/want and can't take public statements at face value.

The Eagles will win another game before Michael Young finally decides where he wants to get paid millions of dollars to play baseball.

Funny that Salisbury has a union grievance article about Schwimer posted now. My guess is that Derek Holland (player assoc. rep for Texas) has been questioned by Young about the time limit of a player in a 10/5 player involved in a trade.

Give me Young and Hamilton (or Swisher). I like what they did defensively with Revere, but this team needs offense. It was great offense and decent pitching (along with a dream season by the closer) that won us a World Series. We need some RBI guys, it can't all be on Howard.

Aint that one dude Villanueva a basket ball dude.

Don't understand the impatience with Young. If you lived in the same town for a long time, all your family and friends were nearby, and your boss told you that you were being transfered 2000 miles away, wouldn't you want time to think about it? Especially if you were set for life, and didn't have to go to keep food on the table?

On the 2013 payroll, does Polly's buyout count? Wasn't it $5MM?

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