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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Comments

I got sick to my stomach when I reached this part:

"...will join previously reported signees Andres Blanco, Josh Fields, Steven Lerud, Michael Martinez,..."

and almost stopped reading.

This abortion of a baseball player just won't go away.


BTW, JW, good to see you posting again!!!!

Sounds like a nice signing...next Jayson Werth maybe?

I just know I'm gonna be ranting all year long about calling this guy up. Among other things.

NEPP, if the guy can actually PLAY, then by all means he should be given every chance to make the roster. He's a lefty, so youcould argue that he and Nix provide redundancy, but at this point Nix is a sunk cost and not too expensive.

If this guy can provide a spark off the bench and push Brown, then by all means let him.

Michael Martinez isn't fit to be invited to a gathering of people named Michael Martinez, let alone Major League Spring Training.

bap, I'm not sure you're right. If he doesn't break camp with the big club and tears it up at LV, and someone on the big club ain't doing the job, I think the criteria for pulling the trigger and making a change are going to be different this season.

I have no evidence, but I think that missing the playoffs last season changes things, and changes the amount of patience they'll have with the players.

I can't wait for Mini-Mart to hit .400 in ST, make the team and then proceed to hit .120 for the season.

Bap: who ya got, Fields or Mitchell?

I think we can all agree that we will remember where we were when mini mart finally gets DFA'd.

I'm not nearly as high on Mitchell as our esteemed blog master.

Jermaine Mitchell's biggest problem (besides some missing skills) is age.

He was a college player drafted in the 5th round in 2006 and it took him parts of 3 years to master A ball, where he was still located at age 25, making him 5 years older than the average A ball player. The A's smartly tested him quickly at AA and Triple A at age 26 and he posted a .960 OPS, albeit in hitters' parks and, again, older than his competition.

Last year, at age 27, he posted a .731 OPS in the hit-happy PCL.

Still, he's got a couple decent skills: Excellent plate judgment, which yields a high OB% (.380 career), and good range in CF.

Some things he doesn't have: HR power (I wouldn't call a career .423 SLG a power hitter), contact skills (Ks about 25%) and base stealing ability (career 67%, which is poor). Oh, and his arm is clone of Ben Revere's.

If he could knock that K rate down, assuming league average BABIP, his AVG/OB would rise enough to make his range and glove attractive as a 4th outfielder in MLB, so all in all this is a worthwhile pickup.

clout, all I care about is that he's a better option than minimart.

Better than Tyson Gillies. Another sign they've written off Gillies.

Clout: You're right that I oversold his power. I like this guy though. Bad back last season. And what is he up against? Brown, Ruf, Nix, Mayberry, Inciarte, Gillies.

JW, good point about Gillies.

JW: Hey, the more the merrier. May the best man win.

Blanco's going to beat out MiniMart.

BL will admit to overselling a lot of these outfielders over the years: Greg Jacobs, Lou Montanez, Shawn Garrett (was that his name?), Josh Kroeger, who's still kicking around somewhere.

Chris Snelling.

Brandon Watson. Jeremy Slayden. Jason Ellison.

Jeremy "Jack Cust" Slayden - Billy Beane's next great Moneyball player.

Not a horrible group but I figure the Phils will add at least another pitcher or two to that group.

Expect Quintero will get the backup job coming out of spring training. Blanco is the only other guy I can see making the club out of spring training.

I love that every old, unathletic OF that showed any ability to hit became "hey, maybe we can trade him to Oakland."

Like, the fact that they had Matt Stairs and John Jaha 15 years ago meant that they would of course trade for our terribe hitters. Sadly, I think there's still people who think that the A's only like players like that.

Better than Tyson Gillies. Another sign they've written off Gillies.

His elf costume must have been the final straw.


Sadly, I think there's still people who think that the A's only like players like that.

The Phillies better be careful or people might begin thinking they only like fast, weak armed players who can barely hit the ball out of the infield.

The last time I actually got excited about a Phillies non-roster invitee was 2 years ago, when they invited a minor league outfielder named Matt Miller to spring training. He was big and slow and old (as prospects go), but he had great minor league numbers. I was absolutely sure he was going to take the Phillies by storm in spring training. Alas, he only got a handful of ABs and pretty much stunk it up in all of them. Then they sent him to the minors, where he stunk it up some more, before calling it a career. With Jermaine Mitchell, though, it will be different.

The non-roster invitees will be welcomed with a cake shaped like Ryan Langerhans.

If any of the non-roster invitees make it to the big club, it will be a long season.

Gillies started to get healthy this year and in 68 games in Reading he posted a slash line of .304/.369/.453/.822.

I don't think bringing in a wrecked prospect like Mitchell says anything about how they feel about Gillies. Mitchell is organizational depth and nothing more.

I think bringing in Revere to be the CF starter for the next 4 years is all you need to know about how the team feels about Gilles.

I think they see a player with potential and bring him in. More competition the better. I know it's different sports, but watched a few clips on Tom Brady and he said he started preparing for 49ers right after thanksgiving. Maybe he could talk to some of our guys about preparing for games and how to go about it. Guys 35 and still putting up numbers.

I think bringing in Revere to be the CF starter for the next 4 years is all you need to know about how the team feels about Gilles.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Friday, December 14, 2012 at 07:28 AM

Bingo! Fata wins the post, hands, down. What a nightmare off-season (so far, anyway).

Is RAJ banking on big years from Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ruiz? One more push for a pennant? With Darin Ruf as the "ace in the hole"?

Who knows? I don't recall what the '12 Giants looked like going into ST, but if I recall, no one feared them even a little.

"hands, down" = "hands down"

I'm not sure they've given up on Gillies, but compare the way Asche's name gets thrown around in the hunt for a 3B this offseason to the absence of any mention of Gillies' half-season in AA. Gillies needs a solid full-season of event-free baseball.

Wiggy just got 2 years/$5M from the Cards. I look forward to him hitting 25 HRs a year for them with an .800 OPS over the next couple seasons

This has nothing to do with the above post, but check this out:

Cardinals To Sign Ty Wigginton
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 14 at 7:23am CST]

The Cardinals have agreed to sign utility player Ty Wigginton to a two-year deal in the $5MM range, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (on Twitter). Wigginton, an ACES client, will provide the Cardinals with an experienced, versatile right-handed bat.


You beat me to it NEPP

I'm sure aksmith loves this Wigginton deal, as he says at least once a week that he wishes our FO was more like the Cardinals.

What could anyone have possibly seen in Wigginton this year to give him a 2-year deal?

Wigginton, an ACES client, will provide the Cardinals with an experienced, versatile right-handed bat.

Who knew that Wiggy went into the custom bat manufacturing business?

Edmundo, I hear he built his first bat from a bigger bat.

Sophist, Gilles is strictly a CF, right? Unless Revere washes out (which after trading away two SP for him, I'm sure the Phils will give him every chance to remain the CF for as long as they can), what possible spot does Gilles have here beyond just being an emergency injury replacement? Trade bait?

I mean, they can't possibly see him as part of their future plans, can they?

Fata - Look at the Angels and the Twins. You can get value from two CF -- either on the field (depending on how your roster is constructed) or through trades (the Twins got value out of a Span-Revere OF and then got value in trading one/both of them).

I don't think they've given up on Gillies. They just aren't going to factor his possible arrival time into their plans for the Phils.

Now the Cubs are out on Sanchez and it looks like the Tigers are going to sign him.

Sophist, trade bait is about the only thing I think he could be. They certainly aren't going to ever start Gilles AND Revere in the OF together, I'd hope.

And in that sense, of course they haven't given up on him. But they've given up on him in terms of him factoring into their future plans.

Also, Sophist, one of the Angels CF is named Mike Trout, and he'd have more value to a team being their DH then probably any CF in the league,t hat's how good his bat/baserunning is. So I don't think that's a fair comp.

Fata - I just think that's a backward way to look at it. Gillies has yet to factor into their plans. He wouldn't have factored into their plans when they first acquired him either. He hasn't earned it. The Phils were in talks to acquire Asdrubal Cabrera, who's contract runs through 2014 and who they would have played at 3B. Does that suggest they've given up on Asche?

If Gillies plays well again, then he'll force the issue. But they aren't going to consider his arrival time in making decisions for CF. But were they ever?

Sophist: "I don't think they've given up on Gillies. They just aren't going to factor his possible arrival time into their plans for the Phils. "

Nor should they. Making/passing on acquiring MLB players with regards to what prospects you have is a bad way to operate. You can make cases for the brightest of prospects, but even that can lead to uncessary vulernability.

Sophist, if the Phillies got Cabrera to play 3B for the next 4 years, then yes I'd consider that the Phillies would consider Asche expendable. I don't think they'll give up on any player that has some level of promise, because a player in your system can always be traded.

But regarding Gilles, let's assume that he does "force the issue". What CAN the Phillies do with him?

Do they:

1) Bench Revere?
2) Put Gilles in a corner spot?
3) Trade Revere
4) Trade Gilles

It seems that option 4 is the only realistic option, unless Revere tanks, but after trading Worley and one of their best SP, the Phillies will give Revere every chance they can to be their starting CF for as long as possible.

So no, of course they haven't "given up" on him, but Gilles probability of being a starter for the Phillies in the future is very low, regardless of how well he plays.

Wigginton got 2 yrs?! The Gods Must be Crazy.

Fata - I just don't think the move says a ton about Gillies other than his future is uncertain. We could just as easily have said their unwillingness to throw $$/years at Bourn or to really go after Upton was a sign that they see promise in Gillies. And it would have been just as well founded (ie, not very well).

I'm not saying that the Phils could get on field value out of Gillies/Revere that compares to anything involving Mike Trout. I'm saying that having an abundance of CF value (if that is what happens) at cheap $$ is not a problem. The Phils needed a CF for 2013. Revere fills that gap. If Gillies plays well, there's no problem. They aren't committed to either player and, as Span/Revere shows and Bourjos may show, that's a good problem to have.

Major league front offices don't think the way most fans do. The front office usually tries to do whatever is best for the major-league team, and the minor-league development system, separately. The idea that you make moves based on what you have in the minor leagues is generally something fans think, but that I don't think really happens. Which is to say, teams don't ever factor prospects into their future plans and allow that to dictate moves now--things change way too quickly to be able to do that.

Think about it--the Nationals signed Jayson Werth, a perfect RF, when they had Bryce Harper in their system, who projected to be a RF. So even if you have Bryce Harper in your system, the best prospect in baseball, you aren't making moves based on what you have in the minor leagues. You make the best moves for your franchise, and if your prospects develop well enough to create a logjam, well, then that's a good problem to have.

So basically, I don't think you can ever read into what a team feels about a prospect based on their major-league moves, because I generally don't think teams act that way.

Also, if the Phillies had gone after an Upton or Pagan to play CF or a Cabrera to play 3B, those would be moves more in line with having an eye toward bringing in Asche or Gilles in a year or two, because Upton and Pagan have just enough power to justify playing them at a corner spot, and Cabrera could have moved to SS once Jimmy's contract was up, opening up 3B for Asche.

But the only position Revere can play and have legitimate value is CF, basically blocking Gilles for the next 4 years. I just don't see any path for Gilles to make the team outside of Revere falling off the face of the Earth or having a debilitating injury, that's all.

Fata - I don't think Worley/May will factor into the decision. Gillies was once traded for Cliff Lee. It doesn't seem like their loyalty to him is tied to a PR move. And I agree that it's unlikely that this team plays both in the OF even in the unlikely event it is the best option. But I think they'll play/trade players depending on value. They'll play the more productive player unless trading him and playing the other guy is a better return.

Jack - I agree. Although I will say that the way Amaro talks about Asche in light of possible moves at 3B is very different than the way they ever talked about Gillies and CF moves (not at all).

I think we're talking past each other now.

Revere and Gilles are basically the same age, but Revere has a few years of ML experience under his belt and hasn't had the off-field issues that Gilles has had.

So unless Gilles is absolutely lighting it up in the minors, and Revere is not working out here, Gilles has no future with this team. Because at any point in time, unless Gilles projects to be much better in the here and now, they are basically the same player, and when you have two players, but one has several years of ML and the other has been in your MiL system for a while, I just don't see why you wouldn't choose the ML player.

So again I say, do you envision any future in which Gilles is the starting CF for the Phillies (outside of Revere become sub-replacement level)? I don't.

Sophist: That may simply be a function of them recognizing that there *weren't* any long-term 3B options.

I tend to think that if there were multiple 3B options available the way there were CF options, Cody Asche's name would never be mentioned.

Revere makes league minimum and may never OPS over .700 or OBP over. 335. If Gillies continues to hit (OPS over .800 in Reading) and stay on the field and Revere stays as is, I don't think it would take an injury or failure for Gillies to start. I'm not saying that's likely, but I don't understand what the foundation to this loyalty to Revere comes from.

Jack, the difference with Harper is that Harper is projected to have a great bat, meaning he has immense value to the team in CF, LF or RF. So signing a FA RF meant nothing in terms of when he would join the team.

Gilles and Revere can only play CF to have value to their teams. Getting Revere blocked Gilles.

Fata - Yes, simple. If Gillies outplays Revere. Look at Thome/Howard only in this case you're not paying either guy anything at all.

In any case, we've come a long way from the idea that they've "given up on Gillies."

Jack - Interesting point.

Although Thome's case did involve an injury. I think if Gillies hits .300/.370/.450 in AA/AAA and Revere repeats his 2102 numbers, Gillies be in the conversation bigtime. One will get traded. Not sure why it would have to be Gillies.

Yeah, I don't really get this conversation. If you can't envision Gillies ever being better than Revere, then yeah, of course you can't envision the Phillies playing Gillies over Revere. It seems like you're just saying you don't think Gillies is that good--which is fine. But I don't think we can really glean any real analysis of Gillies from the move. The Phillies needed a starting CF. Revere was available. Done.

And if you think the Phillies consciously decided in a meeting "hey, Tyson Gillies sucks, let's go get a CF because he's dead to us," and are now wedded to that decision, I don't think that's really accurate.

Sophist, and this is where my lack of knowledge regarding the skillsets of MiL players comes into play. Does Gilles project to have plus defense in CF like Revere does? Does he project to be an elite base stealer, like Revere?

Does he project to have a much better bat then Revere?

Because I get the impression that kind of projects to be....Ben Revere.

But if that's the case, and you already have a Ben Revere on your roster who already has shown that he can stick and have value at the ML level, why would you switch? Unless Gilles projects to be much better than Revere, which could be the case.

Also, I'm in a very polemical mood this morning. But I also find this very interesting. Don't mean to clog up the thread, Jack. :)

Jack's post at 10:02 is exactly what I'm thinking pretty much.

It just seems to me that the Phillies went out and traded for the ML equivalent of what Gilles projects to be, and, to me, if that's the case, then yes, I do believe it says something about how they see Gilles future with the team.

But I could be wrong, in that Gilles might project to be much better than what Revere is now, and if that's the case, then of course they'd move on from Revere if Gilles looked like he was ready to fulfill his potential. So what does Gilles project to be: a Revere type, or something better?

If clout didn't like Sanchez at $15 M/yr, he's not going to like him at $16 M/yr.

Because that's what the Tigers upped the offer to.

Phils went out and got Revere because they needed a starting CF this year. Gillies wasn't that guy.

Gillies though has largely fallen off the map. Agreed with Sophist that he needs to put together a complete season at Reading to get b back on the Phils' radar. If he is injured/ineffective, he's done as a prospect since he will be 25 this year & hasn't moved above AA despite three years there.

Best-case scenario, he puts up some numbers this year that enable Amaro to use him in a trade next offseason.

I think MG said, much more succinctly, what I was attempting to say.

Fata - Gillies and Revere are different kinds of CF with different skillsets. Whether Gillies ever stays healty and develops is a big question, but he's more a Vic type (plus speed, above average power, better arm) and Revere is a Pierre type (plus plus speed, no arm, no power).

Fata - I just don't know why you'd necessarily believe at this stage that, as long as Revere keeps OPSing .675, he's the CF of the future no matter what Gillies does. That's what you implied.

The Cardinals gave Wigginton 2/$5 million. That's so stupid I don't even know where to begin.

Is Gillies starting in AA or AAA?

This is all academic because there is absolutely no way that Gillies will ever stay healthy for a full year or anything close to it. He couldn't even make it through the AFL without getting shut down. And, if I'm not mistaken, haven't like 75% of these injuries been the exact same injury?

OK, now I want strangle everyone involved in making that decision. I'm moving through the stages fairly rapidly.

We need Swish at the dish.

I'm still trying to figure out what role the Phillies played in orchestrating that Wigginton deal. It's inconceivable that a deal that stupid could be done without the Phillies' FO having a hand in it somehow.

Sophist, I was just casually looking at his numbers, and he didn't seem to be anything more than a Revere type with his bat. He looks like he could have a slightly better bat, but his power hasn't been much to speak of, what with this 1 HR/ 86 PA in his MiL career.

Again, you'd know more about his scouting projection, and it's literally impossible to have less power than Revere, so I guess he's got more upside there by default. On a total value basis, though, does Gilles project to simply be a better player than Revere? That's what I was getting at. Because for every ounce of potential that Gilles still has, Revere has just as much potential, if not more, due to their age, plus he's got 3 years of ML experience.

Anyway, if you want to abort this conversation, I'm fine with that. Don't want to be that guy. Sometimes, I don't know when to stop...

Sophist - I imagine at Reading but they might start him in CF at Lehigh. Just depends on who they bring back for the OF there.

Fata - It's not just HR. Revere doesn't even really have gap power (2B/3B). I think he gets most of them from speed. I would never say Revere won't develop and Gillies just won't stay healthy. But Gillies at 23 had a .450+ SLG in Reading. Revere at 23 SLG .364 in AAA after SLG .363 at 22 in AA (they both played in the eastern league). That's above average CF power versus 0 power.

I see your point, Sophist. And again, I agree, if Revere gets worse during this time here this year, and Gilles really blossoms in AA/AAA, then he could force their hand with Revere.

I just don't see that happening.

Fata - It's unlikely. I just don't see the Revere trade as saying very much about Gillies, which is how this conversation got started. I think he'd have to be crushing AAA before they start designing their OF with him in mind.

I would not be so foolish as to look at Gillies as being an answer to anything but he was healthy mostly through the second half the 2012 season in Reading and again posted a slash line of .304/.369/.453/.822.

There is talent there. He needs to play a full season in the minors and stay healthy though to really see what we have and I think we all can agree on that.

And again (and I'm done after this unless you want to continue), I think it says something. If the Phillies thought much about Gilles' prospects of playing CF in the coming years, I think they would have been more inclined to sign a FA who could potentially be moved to a corner OF spot in the next couple years (Upton is such a candidate). Instead they traded two very promising SP (one with over two years of ML experience) for a guy who can ONLY play CF.

Maybe it's just me, but I think that says something about how they view Gilles.

I could be wrong, but that's my opinion.

I'm drinking the Jason Kool Aid and I'm excited about Mitchell. I hope he applies the blow torch to Dom's posterior, but I doubt that it will help. I see Mitchell getting a shot as a late inning defensive replacement outfielder for 2013, although clout's throwing cold water on the whole thing evaluation of Mitchell has diluted my Jason Kool Aid a bit.

I think the Wigginton deal is wonderful................in that it keeps him far away from here. Not sure what STL is smoking.

But there is always this possibility: I look forward to him hitting 25 HRs a year for them with an .800 OPS over the next couple seasons
Posted by: NEPP

"I think bringing in Revere to be the CF starter for the next 4 years is all you need to know about how the team feels about Gilles."


Fatti, yes and no.

Rever's major attractions to the Phils are that he plays great defense and he's inexpensive.

Once he hits his arb years he'll become expensive, and if Gillies can stay healthy and continue to put up numbers like last season as he advances, the more expensive Revere becomes, by then, expendable.

He could then either be traded or non-tendered, and the inexpensive Gillies replaces him.

I do believe their initial plan when they traded for Gillies was to replace Vic. For the reasons everone on this board knows, Gillies wasn't/isn't ready.

awh, how much longer can the Phils hold Gilles until he becomes exposed to the Rule 5 draft?

sophist: "I'm not sure they've given up on Gillies, but compare the way Asche's name gets thrown around in the hunt for a 3B this offseason to the absence of any mention of Gillies' half-season in AA. Gillies needs a solid full-season of event-free baseball."

What's interesting about that is Gillies has a WAY better chance of being successful in MLB than Asche does.

Fata: Gillies is on the 40-man roster. He's protected as long as he's there. I imagine his health/production (along with the relative need for space on the 40-man) this season will determine whether he's kept there again next offseason.

"I do believe their initial plan when they traded for Gillies was to replace Vic."

I think their plan was nothing more than to get the best prospect they could as part of the package. They liked Gillies, obviously (you can see why, when he's actually healthy). You can argue that their evaluation of him was wrong, for sure, but that's what it was. It wasn't "oh, Victorino will be a FA in three years, we need a CF to replace him then." That's just silly.

Very likely there was no consideration of replacing Victorino in choosing prospects. Again, major-league teams don't work that way, despite what fans think. They want the best prospects they can get, regardless of position, and regardless of who they have at the major-league level. Things are too fluid at both levels to do it any other way.

Another thing to keep in mind w/ Gillies is his lack of maturity. Sure, he's only 24, but continuing to run afoul of the organization has not helped his development at all. One more self-inflicted setback & I could absolutely see the Phillies cutting ties, as they have very little patience w/ that sort of player.

Jack it may be prudent more often than not to get the best prospects you can get in any trade, but it's equally as "silly" to think that teams don't consider their ML and MiL teams when looking for prospects.

You hear about plenty of teams that are trading players who are looking for specific types of prospects (Arizona has been looking exclusively for SS this year, not just for BPA, as an example). I think it may be smarter in general to take the best player you can get, especially if there is a noticeable gap between a player at a position for which you already have interesting prospects and another player at a position for which you are more barren.

But teams do, and I argue must, to a degree, consider their current crop of prospects and ML team when evaluating which players to target in trades.

The Good Phight has a nice, pithy, PG-13 rated summation of the Ty Wigginton deal.


http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/12/14/3766334/report-wigginton-now-someone-elses-problem

Fata: Ok, maybe more than I acknowledged.

Still, I find it incredibly hard to believe that in December of 2009, the Phillies specifically targeted Tyson Gillies because they knew Victorino would be leaving after the 2012 season.

They got him because they liked him as a prospect. Victorino had nothing to do with it.

Then there is this amusing little piece of commentary by a Cardinals blogger, who apparently has never seen Ty Wigginton play in the last 3 or 4 years:

"Basically, he's a righthanded Skip Schumaker with more versatility and pop in his bat."

Versatility? Playing 1st base & LF now makes you versatile?

b_a_p: Good write up. I find this part in particular resonates w/ me:

A walrus in a hat and a jersey would be more effective. I want to work in an industry where you can suck badly at your job and still find someone to pay you to do it again and again.

Playing 1st base & LF now makes you versatile?

Don't forget his multiple starts at 3B!

GTown: As it happens, I DO work in an industry where you can suck badly at your job and still find someone to pay you to do it again and again.

Not snarking, just drawing a blank--what has Gillies done besides being (apparently falsely) accused of cocaine use? Remind me.

This thread isn't making me feel any better about the Revere trade.

I was about to ask if any interest in Porcello now that Tigers got Sanchez...then I looked at Porcello's numbers...pass.

Happy Cliff Lee Day, everybody!

Remember how we felt? The joy...

Relive it here (thread as it happened)...

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2010/12/brown-hyped-as-top-prospect-for-third-straight-year.html

and here (BL's first post on it)...

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2010/12/good-morning-.html


Good times.

Ah yes, I remember:

Merry Cliff-mas!

Happy Halladays!

Roy to the World!

Cole in your stocking!

Since the signing:

62 GS, 2.76 ERA, 142 ERA+, 1.068 WHIP, 445 SO, 70 BB, 6.36 SO/BB

And a W/L record of 23-17.

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