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Wednesday, December 26, 2012


I don't know that the Phils will run with 2 platoons. If Brown wins the RF job, he will be a full-time starter, maybe rest against tough lefties. Ruf will either be a full-time guy in MLB or in AAA. Unlikely the team will have him in Philly to only start once or twice a week.

The problem with keeping just Frandsen is that we have no backup SS on the roster. I suppose we could slide Michael Young over, but that will really hurt our defense up the middle.

Big assumption in this post: The Phillies will have leads to protect. From whence will these leads come? The worst offense in baseball? Or the diminished pitching staff with Doc and Cliff on the DL and Cloyd and Lannan taking regular starts?

Okay, back to reality. There will not be two platoons. Charlie simply won't do it. In fact, I'm not sure there'll even be one platoon. I see Ruf being given a shot in left and Brown in right. I think Charlie will be giving them a chance to win the job outright. This relegates Mayberry and Nix to the bench for the most part. I do see Mayberry getting starts for either Revere or Brown against tough lefties. And Ruf may get a day off for Nix against very good righties. But no platoons.

I would go North with 11 pitchers, at least to start the season. And I'd get either Frandsen or Galvis an outfielders mitt and grab the fungo bat. Just in case. The last thing this team needs is Minimart patrolling the outfield, or any field, for that matter. But I think it's going to be important to have both Frandsen and Galvis because JRoll is likely to need either some time off or some DL time. Can't expect Frandsen to play SS. And certainly can't expect Young to do it at this point.

jbird: Ruf would need to crush the ball in spring training to earn a full-time starting spot. At this point, he projects to a bat off the bench, particularly given his defensive short-comings.

KAS: I agree that he will have to do well to win the starting gig out of spring training, that's why I think he'll start the year as an IronPig. How often does a defensively challenged rookie win a job as a bench player? Usually when a team is looking for a bat-first bench guy, it's someone with a good deal of experience like Jim Thome or Matt Stairs were in prior years for this team.

I think Ruf makes the team out of ST. If he doesn't, then who is your fifth outfielder? Minimart? Because the rule 5 guy isn't coming North.

If the team wants to bring on another outfielder, why not Grady Sizemore? Give him a heavily incentiveized deal based on at bats. He'd have the incentive of competing for playing time from amongst a lackluster group. If he doesn't pan out, you are no worse off than you are now.

ak: I'm less concerned about the competition for the 5th outfielder spot than I am about finding players worthy of the #1, #2, and #3 designations.

One of Ruf/Brown/Mayberry will win a FT position in the OF after ST. Unless Nix has a monster ST, I could see the FO leaving him in Clearwater. They definitely need Galvis at the ML level to give Rollins/Utley days off.

aksmith- I love how you speak like you're Nostradamus and the future has already played out with the corner OFs. You're so sure Cholly won't play two platoons because, well, duh.

That reminds me, do you think Amaro should take a run at Pence, who (in your reality) was non-tendered by SF?

Iceman - I make predictions. I have no inside knowledge. In fact, the Giants will dump Pence if they can at some point because they badly overpaid by tendering him.
If you're saying I was wrong, then DUH.

I think Charlie won't play two platoons because he likes to have a guy win the job. He doesn't like platoons for the same reason we don't like them. They limit his options. Notice how he tried to play Schierholtz everyday last season? He was trying to find out if the guy was an everyday player. As he should have during a lost season.

So, you're criticizing me because I take a position before things happen? Isn't speculating what we think will happen part of the charm of BL? Or in Iceman BL are we only allowed to comment on the past.

If you'll remember, I also thought Victorino would get less than 16 million over two seasons. Wrong about that too. But once again, to be celebrating that I was wrong, you'd have to believe that the Red Sox and Indians were correct about his value. And I don't think anyone here believes that.

Frandsden i guess is the emergency SS. I dunno i still think Galvis has to be there somewhere.

Mayberry is gonna be def replacement for ruf. Brown has the job in RF

One of Ruf/Brown/Mayberry will win a FT position in the OF after ST. Unless Nix has a monster ST, I could see the FO leaving him in Clearwater. They definitely need Galvis at the ML level to give Rollins/Utley days off.

Posted by: nonamePHame | Wednesday, December 26, 2012 at 02:42 PM

Nix will be demoted to Single A? Or will be cut? I don't understand what you are saying about Nix.

bap: Valdes' last 3 years in the minors have been very good. Over a K per inning while walking less than two batters per 9 and a WHIP under 1.2

Does nix have options left? I'd think not.

nonamePHame: The only way to "leave [Nix] in Clearwater" is if he is injured and requires extended spring training.

"But once again, to be celebrating that I was wrong, you'd have to believe that the Red Sox and Indians were correct about his value."

Actually, no. I can celebrate that you were wrong because you were wrong. No conditions needed. You didn't say anything about his value. You said "I think he'll get __________" and were wrong about it.

Everyone here is wrong about a lot of predictions, but very rarely is someone so prickish about their arguments at the time of the speculation, and gets so hilariously defensive when they turn out to be incorrect. So yes, I will celebrate. Popping the Internet champagne right now, actually. And I'll do the same when Cholly plays a platoon in LF and you make excuses about what you said in this thread.

surprisingly no comments about 'hampering charlie's late game decision making' - it would be a shame to handicap that legendary ability

At the risk of being "wrong," I think Dom will be penciled in as the starting RF'er and Yayberry and Ruf will battle it out for the LF spot. I think the edge goes to JM because of his experience. Charlie doesn't usually play rookies unless he has to. Unless Rube pulls off a big trade, I don't see anyone coming in and being much of an upgrade so why spend a lot of money getting marginally better? If our core players are healthy and doing well, we'll be in the mix come the middle of July at which point we can make a trade for an OF bat if needed.

Besides Revere... Mayberry is our best defensive outfielder.. Don't be surprised when he gets 85 percent of the starts.. You could a bring in a dude like Grady Sizemore who is a great defender who can help..

"I don't know that the Phils will run with 2 platoons."

jbird, exactly. Seidman's entire premise for this post is flawed. (I guess they gotta do something to generate traffic.)

In the first place, the team has a manager who doesn't like platoons very much.

In the second place, there is nothing in Ruf's minor league numbers that suggests he is a 'Mayberry-like' liability against RHP - assuming he can hit MLB pitching in the first place. (I posted links to Ruf's MiL splits in previous threads, so Seidman obviouly ignore the data.)

And then, Sidman mentions Hairston? Hairston? He's as much of a liability against RHP as is Mayberry, would cost a lot more.

And if the is a bat avialable that can actually hit from both sides of the plate it will cost a lot more than Seidman insinuates it will.

Nope, bad writeup, faulty premise.

Oh, and if someone wants to infer from my post above that I think Ruf will be the everyday LF, go ahead.

I don't know whether he will be, but I believe they're going to give him every chance to win the job.

Dickson, I like Sizemore too, but he will probably not be ready until July, so there is little incentive for a team to sign him now, and little incentive for him to sign right now.

If he proves he's healthy later in the summer, he'll likely get a better deal than he will now.

Frandsen and Galvis will be the late inning defensive corner outfielders that they need. Run and catch the ball they can do well.This team is ready for war. No mo tickering is needed!

Ruf will need patience and perseverance next season. He won't jump ahead of Mayberry or Brown and he is not a bench player. I'm looking forward to watching him at LV just to see if he bounces off his projected ceiling.

AWH, I pretty much disagree with all of those points.

1) Whether Charlie likes the idea or not, Ruben Amaro said, explicitly, at Mike Adams' presser that the team is toying with the idea of going with a double platoon. Whether Charlie utilizes that platoon properly is a completely separate topic.

2) It wasn't assumed anywhere in the post that Ruf has Mayberry-like numbers against RHPs. But he'll need to earn an everyday spot, he won't be handed one like so many Phillies fans think. In order to play every day, he'll need to hit lefties, then he'll earn time against righties and if he hits them he'll stick.

3) I didn't insinuate any cost at all. No insinuation of a cost to acquire Kubel or sign Hairston was listed in this post. It has been in previous posts.

This particular piece was about how, even if the double platoon is utilized properly, the Phillies need another bat unless they want to limit their 8th-inning options.

Scott Hairston's inability to hit righties is why he's referred to as a platoon/bench player in the linked article. Perhaps you've never read anything I've written, I'm not sure.

With that out of the way, I'd like to say that I've really enjoyed the comments sections here since I started about a month ago. You guys all advance the discussion well and there is pretty much no personal attacking or trolling. I've been around the Philly blogosphere for quite some time and believe me when I tell you that is rare.

If they happen to sign(a OF'er) who gets the Axe?

The only thing that must be done but won’t be done is give Charlie his walking papers and let Rhino blaze! I would pay to see Charlie in a WWF ring in tights.

Iceman - Still a douche? Well, at least one of my predictions was correct.

They could always trade away Brown or Galvis for something better to come..

Who would you rather have? Who will be the more productive player in the next few years? Dominic Brown or Freddy Galvis?

They will release or trade RFD - they saw enough last year - and keep the Rule 5 guy to back up centerfield.

No way they get rid of Mayberry to open up a spot for the rule 5 pick who never played in the majors to backup centerfield.

More likely Terry Harmon comes out of retirement and beats out Mayberry than the rule 5 guy making the team and Mayberry getting cut.

I'm not convinced Lame Duck Chuck will be a winner. Extend Charlie's contract in secret but have Sandberg make ALL the calls. Charlie can hand out the lineup card, point to the bullpen, get tossed once a week for entertainment and continue to befuddle in post-game recaps.

I know what Rube said, but there is no chance there will be a double platoon. None.

They'll bring in at least one OFer to be a starter if Ruf-Brown et al fail. Hairston would be my last choice, but there are trade possibilities and somone decent usually gets cut in Spring Training. I guarantee they won't start the season with just the outfielders they have now.

I really like this trade for the Pirates:

Pirates acquired OF/1B Jerry Sands, RHPs Stolmy Pimentel and Mark Melancon and INF Ivan DeJesus, Jr. from the Pirates for RHP Joel Hanrahan and INF Brock Holt.

Sands and Pimentel are legit good prospects. Melancon can be a decent middle innings guy (or better if he can repeat his outlier 2011 season)and DeJesus is nice Triple A insurance for middle INF.

Clout - Do you like Grilli closing for the Pirates? Because that's the upshot of this deal.

It's fine to like a trade in a vacuum. But this trade only works because the Pirates will never win anything, nor will they be expected to win anything.

I know what Rube said, but there is no chance there will be a double platoon. None.

Amen. I don't think Charlie gives half a damn what r00b says. He'll play his guys as he sees fit, & history suggests that means favorites will appear before too long. Besides which, no one ties Charlie's hands more frequently & adeptly than Charlie himself. He's a poor tactical manager, period.

Is there any data to suggest that defensive replacements in the outfield actually help win games?

Cory S. Amen!

AWH~ I'm glad someone see it besides me. While I agree with your "they have to pitch better, a lot better" assessment, they also have to score enough, so when they get good pitching leads are preserved. If they pitch better, they'll be in more games. but last time I checked you have to outscore the opposing team to win.

Tou make VERY VALID points, but it all goes hand-in-hand. They need to upgrade their OF production, along with better pitching, health, etc. If they don't do that, it'll be a long year. Amaro KNEW this was a need and he hasn't filled it...yet. I'll ask you the same question I posed to Ice. Don't you think it odd that they haven't signed any offensive FA they've targeted?

- Hairston can't play all 3 OF positions well and his numbers vs RHP the last 3 years are subpar (.218/.289/.420 in 431 ABs)

- Frandsen isn't going to be the backup SS on the roster. Phils always carry a utility middle infielder who is a natural SS with the odds on favorites being Galvis or Blanco headed into camp.

- If the Phils are going to go with 2 strict platoons, they need to carry 11 pitchers and 6 bench players. With the specialization that teams employ today with their pitching staffs, almost every NL team carries 12 pitchers.

Imagine Brown gets a shot to be an everyday player like he was last year during the final two months of the year in RF and that the Phils will initially take a platoon approach in LF with Ruf/Mayberry in the mix.

What I don't get is where Nix fits in this mix because if he isn't starting in LF vs RHP, he has very little value off the bench. Better off with Schierholtz would have given them more roster flexibility since he isn't completely useless vs LHP and can play LF/RF adequately.

ak- if pointing out that you are wrong makes me a douche, then you got me. I'm a huge douche.

I'm not sure what's wrong with admitting that you're wrong about something on the Internet without qualification. MG and I had a bet on Nathan matching Papelbon's production at the beginning of 2012 and I was abysmally wrong. G-Town and I had a disagreement about if ownership would bust through the luxury tax after they dumped Pence's salary, and while it isn't over yet, it looks like that is one of the only things he's ever been right about.

Who cares? This is all supposed to be fun.

I typed a long post and it isn't showing up. Essentially it was this: There won't be two platoons. Brown is going to be your starting right fielder and RUF/Mayberry/Nix will battle in left with most likely Ruf being the starter and Mayberry and Nix heading to the bench.

I am neutral-to-positive about what Amaro did in the offseason (love the Adams signing, really like the Revere trade, like the Lannan signing, lukewarm on the Young trade, loathe the fact that they didn't spend for Swisher/Hamilton or trade for a productive corner OF), but I'm closer to the fence than the 'positive' column. However, if he were to sign Scott Hairston after all of this, I would be shoved into the 'WTF?/Negative' camp. There is literally nothing he'd bring to the team that they don't already have. I'd even take a chance on Ruf over him 100 times out of 100 even if they came at the same price. He is a completely pointless player and would be a pointless signing.

TTI - That's what I figure will happen too even if Brown has a subpar spring training.

After Vic/Pence were moved last year with Mayberry starting everyday in CF and Brown in RF. Only reason Brown sat was due to hamstring issues otherwise he played everyday in RF.

Ideally though I would like Brown to sit vs LHP though because I have a feeling his numbers are going to be pretty bad again this year vs LHP.

He's yet another guy beyond the big names who it will be interesting to see how healthy he is in spring training.

Corey: I don't know where you are getting your stream of thought here but Galvis and Frandsen will both be on the roster. Frandsen does not play short but Galvis does. The bench is going to be:


That is it. There is not going to be a Scott Hairston signing nor should there be. Ruf will most likely be your starting left fielder and that gives you a righty and lefty off the bench.

Ice~ It is supposed to be fun. Hell I get called a douche too. And it's only because people disagree.

It's fun for me because I no longer live in the Philly aarea & I love talking Phils baseball with other Phils phans.

Opinion are like a__h__es. Everybody's got one.

Here's what we know, that everyone can agree on so far. This club is aging, coming off a lot of injuries, has a massive payroll, and has needs to fill. I think (just my opinion), that while some of the NEEDS were filled, we're only marginally better, and that alone doesn't get us to the playoffs.

Now that could/may change IF we get normal contributions from Doc, Utley, Howard, Jimmy, and they stay healthy. That's a lot of "ifs" but every team has those.

I'm a person who believes in going out and getting done what you set out to do. Amaro hasn't finished the job yet. And he may not. He's gonna have to answer to somebody if they falter again. He finally admitted to evereyone that he made mistakes about the 'pen last year, then went and did something about it. I give him tons of credit for that.

But I believe as presently constructed a lot'll have to go right for this team team be a playoff team. And I get highly criticized for my opinions.

That said, it doesn't mean RAJ is a bad GM, but he's also said that if he can't put aplayoff team together with $170 million payroll, he's not doing his job. If he believes that, he may not be doing his job well.

Because none of us are actually with him while he's working or not, we really don't know what's going on in his head or what he's trying to do. All we see is the finished product. He's said he's had the flexility do do what it took to improve the team, and in his mind he did it. In many of the phans minds he didn't. It is fun to talk about it though.

MG: I think at least initially you need to let Brown hit against lefties to see how he does in a more extended sample. He only has 96 at bats against them in the majors. If he struggles you at least have Mayberry to plug there for him.

I would give this offseason a C/C-. Only move I really like that Amaro made was the Young deal because he didn't sign an aging player to a multiyear deal or give up any significant prospects to agree a glaring need.

I do think Young rebounds this year to a .750 OPS or so which would nice offensive lift out of 3rd for the Phils.

I have no idea what Adams gives the Phils because of his offseason surgery status. Need to take a good look at him in spring training to even get a stuff of what his velocity and stuff look like. Also hope that he actually is ready to go at the start of spring training too.

Revere looks like a decent young player but there are question marks on his offensive upside & if he can start 150+ G in CF.

Lannan's value is in his contract and his ability to stay healthy. Very limited upside there.

TTI~ Your long post may not have shown uo because they're no longer auto posted. There a review step where you have to type the words below the post correctly to have it posted. Maybe that's what happened.

And there may not be a Hairston signed but why shouldn't there be? You wouldn't take him in favor of Nix? Granted he's not an everyday player but he a better option than Nix is.

And Yes I agree Ruf will be given every opp to play LF. Not so sure than Brown can handle RF on his own. I ithink Mayberry plays a lot at both corners. But the OF offensive needs augmening.

Sorry for my poor typing "there is a review step" & "augmenting".

Best thing about this offseason was that Amaro didn't sign anymore veterans entering their mid-30s to a multiyear deal at significant dollars ($10M+ annually).

When that is the best thing you can say about the offseason though, it doesn't speak very highly of the moves you did make.

If Amaro had inherited these contracts from a previous GM, I would feel different but at this point this is Amaro's team. He has been the architect of the roster and its limited payroll flexibility so he doesn't get a complete pass from me.

This is Amaro's 'Make or Break' Year in Philly. Either this team makes the playoffs again and he remains in very good standing with ownership or Dave Montgomery & Co. see a very high payroll for two years with very little to show for it except what will be declining attendance and likely a another real dip in TV/radio ratings.

MG~ IF Revere hits leadoff and steals 40 bases, that's his upside. He should not hit 8th. That negates his speed. But you how Cholly is when it comes to his vets. He'll hit Jimmy first. Lannan: There is no upside. He is what he is.

"Is there any data to suggest that defensive replacements in the outfield actually help win games?"

It's probably not possible to answer a question that is framed so generally. It would obviously depend on specifics, like: how great is the difference in defense between the 2 players? How great is the difference in offense? What position are we talking about? What's the score in the game when the defensive replacement occurs? What is the likelihood that the defensive replacement will have to hit in an important situation later on? And so on.

If anyone ever writes a book on the misuse of defensive substitutions, he/she should devote an entire chapter to the Eric Bruntlett-Pat Burrell substitutions back in 2008. Literally every single ingredient spoke against making the substitution:

(1) The defensive upgrade was minimal to non-existent;

(2) The offensive downgrade was huge, and it occurred at the important No. 5 spot in the batting order;

(3) The substitution occurred at the least important defensive position on the entire field;

(4) The substitution occurred relatively early in the game (often in the 6th or 7th inning), such that it was very likely that Bruntlett would be forced to bat later on;

(5) Most of the time, the substitution occurred when we had a mere 1-run lead, meaning: (a) those future Eric Bruntlett ABs would be in important situations; and (b) there was a decent chance the other team would come back and tie it, sending the game to extra innings and bringing about still more Eric Bruntlett ABs in close games.

DPatrone: It didn't give me the middle step. Just showed as normal.

I don't think Hairston would be signed to replace Nix though. He would be replacing Ruf or Mayberry. Mayberry is a better power option and Ruf needs to be seen so we know what we have in him. I know what we would have in Hairston- a 33 year old coming off his best season in 4 years. Ruf costs a couple hundred thousand. Hairston probably costs 1-2 million. No thanks!

I know you and I disagree on this but I think a lot of the offensive problems dealt with half seasons of a lot of guys last year and pitching is what killed us (especially the bullpen). Adding Adams and possibly Howell would greatly make the bullpen better on paper which has to be a huge positive. I want to see too what we have in Ruf and Brown going forward. That will be important for the future of the team.

DPatrone - That is what I would like to see or have him Revere 9th in the pitcher's spot instead and hit the pitcher 8th.

Of course that is unorthodox and almost no chance that Cholly does that.

MG~ Your 8:00PM post is dead on. Nothing great is being said about the moves he made, because he didn't make a game-changing player type of move. After Revere, a lot of us were thinking maybe there was something else, but it didn't happen.

Now I think a lot of us are scratching our heads thinking "this can't be it, can it". To me it's like a loaf of bread that was pulled out of the oven that wasn't finished baking.

"I know you and I disagree on this but I think a lot of the offensive problems dealt with half seasons of a lot of guys last year and pitching is what killed us (especially the bullpen). Adding Adams and possibly Howell would greatly make the bullpen better on paper which has to be a huge positive. I want to see too what we have in Ruf and Brown going forward. That will be important for the future of the team."

You are correct. If the 'pen was better last year, we probably win 10 more games and make it in. And I'd like to see us get Marcum and Howell. You've made your 'pen even stronger. And you've got insurance in Marcum. The big qustion is, can the offense provide enough scoring for the starters and the 'pen?

And I just don't know about Brown. I've been told about him by family members he has tools but no clue when he on the field. To me Mayberry is the better player right now.

Ruf? I agree, we've all got to see if he can do it. His power is nothing to sneeze at. And I'm willing to take that chance, but there'a gotta be a plan "B".

TTI -- the "Captcha" text entry will always be off the bottom of the screen on a long post viewed from the top. You must go to the bottom of the post "preview" to locate it.

I have entered several brilliant (ahem...) blog posts that have vaporized into the ether because I did not engage the "Captcha" text entry thingy -- although I suppose blocking spammers is OK. By any means possible.

If Charlie Manual can't manage at least 1 platoon, he should be fired at the first demonstration of that failure to perform.

Charlie Manual is a swell guy, but the limitations of this roster overwhelm him. First goof-up? Fire him, RAJ. Just do it.

cut fastball: Yes I know that. It wasn't there on the post. no biggie!

DPat: Ar you gonna be patient if Plan B doesn't occur until the trade deadline?

Dang we forget about Ender the Mighty Destroyer. If the Phils decided to keep him on the roster as well someone has to go.

What can I say, Ice? You manage to suck the fun out of a message board.

I was clearly wrong about Pence being tendered and Vic getting a big contract. While I don't believe either team is going to get what they're paying for, that's a separate argument.

My lesson from this is that I suppose I should never underestimate what a GM will do given they are using someone else's money. I am not surprised at Boston, although that contract is outrageous. They have been throwing money around for years. But I am very surprised at Sabean in San Fran. It may be a case of throwing good money after bad, after giving up a real prospect for Pence. But his move is really out of character.

Wonder what Michael Bourne is thinking these days.

Charlie is what he's always been. A better bullpen will make him a better manager, and thus "smarter."

It's easy to look smart when your players actually perform.

In the old agreement, I thought there was a cutoff date for free agents. When it got past a certain date, if they were unsigned, they no longer cost compensation picks. Is there no cutoff any longer?

aksmith - The Victorino deal was a terrible signing and it got really harshly criticized by the media/fans there.

Red Sox will be better this year but it seems like they spent a ton of money for guys in their mid-30s & the only area where there might be a clear improvement is the bullpen.

MG- your attitude on Adams is hilarious. I literally burst into laughter when you start up about him. You had your mind made up about Adams this summer in a long post you wrote talking about how your friend said he's garbage, and I expect every earned run he gives up will be met with a lecture from you on how he is damaged goods.

Your view on the Lannan signing is also a laughable departure on how you weigh 'value' signings by other GMs. If another GM had signed Lannan to that deal you would have lauded it because he's a dependable commodity that will give you 4th/5th starter numbers almost guaranteed that was signed for well under market value.

What's a little surprising is that with all the salary Boston dumped in bad contracts, their payroll is at about 175 million right now. That certainly got a big WTF? from me. How is that even possible?

Still want the Phils to sign another veteran bullpen arm on a 1 yr deal at $2-3M. Given they still about $9-10M under the luxury tax threshold, it wouldn't affect their ability to make moves later this season & at the trading deadline.

There are some solid guys out there yet (Lindstrom, Lyon, KRod) who I do think are clear upgrades over the likes of Stutes, Schwimmer, etc. Make it the clear strength of the team and allow guys like Aumont and Bastardo to be pushed to middle relief and situational spots.

Iceman - Amaro said at the Adams' press conference signing that he 'hoped Adams would be ready at the start of spring training' and when Adams was asked if he had thrown off the mound yet this offseason he stated he hadn't done that yet.

You have this ridiculous attitude like Adams is a known quantity who will be ready to go in early March. He's anything but that given the surgery he had and both he & Amaro had directly stated as much recently.

What's more a more ridiculous or unfounded position - to say Adams is largely an unknown quantity until he takes the mound and has at least several outings in spring training or your stance that he was a solid signing who solidifies the 8th inning?

If Lannan stays in the rotation all year, he will make about ~$4M with the incentives in his contract.

Given similiar signings this offseason on 1-yr deals, yeah it was a solid value signing since even stiffs like Colon/Marquis got $3M in base salaries and the bottom market seemed to be about $5-$6M. Gave the Phils another $1-$2M in payroll flexibility.

As for getting excited about Lannan, I don't see it. He's a guy who tends to get hit hard the 3rd time through the lineup & hits at a wall at about 75-80 pitches. Also has terrible career numbers at CBP and is relying upon an infield defense which has seen much better days.

MG: better 2012, Krod or Adams?

lorecore - That's a bet I have no idea on and wouldn't put forth a wager. I wouldn't even speculate on that until you know where KRod signs, what his role will be, and what Adams looks like in spring training.

If Adams is healthy and doesn't have a real dip in his velocity, he has better upside in '13 than KRod.

MG- it's your attitude that completely throws out Adams' consistently excellent numbers that he has put up for five seasons running (last two in a severe hitters' park) because of his injury. Sure it makes him a bit of a question mark for the beginning of the season, but it's been a pretty consistent refrain that this is an injury he will be able to fully recover from.

You're acting like he had his arm sawed off at the elbow and sewn back on. After rejecting Lopez because of his physical, do you really think Amaro is gonna sign damaged goods to decent money?

BTW, you are the guy that just gushed over Brandon League's 3-year, 22.5 million deal this off-season, yet said Amaro didn't do well to get Adams at 2 years/$12 million. Take a look at their numbers and tell me that makes any earthly sense.

Adams is on 'The MG List' and will be criticized no matter what he does this year.

aksmith: Pirates don't make the playoffs with or without Hanrahan. Hanrahan will make a bundle in arbitration this off-season and he's a free agent next off-season.

The fact the Pirates were able to get a potential power-hitting everyday player, a backend rotation guy, an MLB ready reliever plus triple A middle INF insurance for Hanrahan and Holt (whose ceiling is an offense-first utility guy)is a win for the Bucs.

MG: you're non-answer is all the answer i needed.

Krod sucks.

Iceman - Adams had serious shoulder surgery (which is always the thing you least want to see any pitcher have) and there is little track record to go on from pitchers who have had his surgery.

If Adams had been healthy, I imagine he gets 3 yrs guaranteed and probably starting at $6M-$7M/year.

League's deal at 3 yr/$22.5M isn't that crazy given what other relievers got this year. Dodgers just severely backloaded it which is what I wasn't crazy about and gave him $500k annually in incentive money.

Market for established veteran setup guys seemed to increase a bit this year to the $6M range annually (Affledt, Adams) and even Broxton got 3 yr/$21M.

Still have to what and see what a few veteran guys like KRod and Soriano end up getting on the market to really know how it played out this year. There were a few really nice value signings this year including:

Uehara - 1 yr/$4.25M
Grilli - 2 yr/$6.75M
Fujikawa - 2 yr/$9M

I do agree with MG that if they aren't going to spend on a corner OF (and there are none left worth a damn), they should get Lindstrom or Howell to really strengthen the bullpen and supress runs in the late innings.

There's no way you can tell me Scott Hairston is going to improve the team more than Lindstrom, and they'd come at a similar cost. It's a no-brainer. Make the days that Hamels and Lee (and hopefully Halladay) start a huge stronghold for this team by ensuring leads that they hand over to the bullpen don't get blown consistently. If they sign Hairston, I'm going to go crazy.

I took the liberty of adding Scott Hairston to the Phillies so I could run the lineup analysis tool with him and Dom Brown as starting corner OFers. Can't run it wih Ruf because he doesn't have enough ABs. Here's the result:

Utley 2b
Ruiz C
Brown RF
Hairston LF
Young 3B
Howard 1B
Rollins SS
Revere CF

Howard's numbers were the worst of his career last season, which is how he winds up in the 6 hole. It supports my view that Revere's best spot is 9th.

MG, ok so you're comparing Affeldt to Adams and saying they're similae pitchers because they're 'established veteran setup guys.'

Affeldt since 2008: 315.2 IP, 137 ERA+ (132, 246, 95, 133, 130), 1.289 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.28 K/BB- 3 years/$21 million

Adams since 2008: 295 IP, 199 ERA+ (153, 523, 210, 266, 140), 0.990 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.84 BB/K- 2 years/$12 million

If Adams had his arm crushed by a boulder, maybe the difference in their price tags would be justified. In reality, Amaro did well to get Adams for 2/12 after Affeldt bent Sabean over. They are not on the same level simply because they pitch the 8th inning.

MG: "Still have to what and see what a few veteran guys like KRod and Soriano end up getting"

Guys like Soriano and KRod? Are you implying that Soriano and KRod have some type of similarity going into 2013?

clout- if we sign Tony LaRussa as a consultant to the field manager, Revere may bat 9th.

MG: Chris Carpenter had the surgery last year and missed 2 months. Came back and pitched in 3 games with a 106 ERA+.

Matt Harrison in 2009 had the surgery and returned in 2010 and has pitched to an ERA+ of 95, 130, 138.

Aaron Cook had the surgery in 2004 and returned in July of 2005. He pitched to an ERA+ of 131, 116, 117, 118, 113 from 2005-2009.

Kenny Rogers in 2001 had the surgery. He pitched to an ERA+ of 123, 99, 105, 133, 118, and 104 through the 2007 season.

Jeremy Bonderman had the surgery in 2008 and was pretty much terrible until he left baseball in 2010. He recently signed a minor league deal with the Mariners to return.

Alex Cobb had it in 2011 and returned in 2012 to pitch to a 95 ERA+.

Thoracic Outlet Syndrome is not a serious shoulder surgery. In fact, calling it a shoulder surgery is being a little loose with what it actually is. It is a circulation issue where essentially the vessels carrying blood do not have enough space to get to where it needs to go. So you can have surgery to bypass that area or they cut part of your top rib away to allow the blood to flow past their in an easier fashion.

From the examples above you have 3 guys who came back and pitched very well (Harrison, Cook, Rogers) after the surgery. One guy who bottomed out (Bonderman), and two guys (Carpenter and Cobb) where the jury is still out. I think you can say that there is a track record of baseball pitchers having the surgery and coming back to pitch well.

TTI~ Let me say this. If the Phls were still in the hunt @ the deadline, I'd be ecstatic & I sure as hell would be wating to see whom they would aquire.

That would mean a lot of things either went right for them or a lot of things went wrong for other teams. Or both.

Yeah as long as they're in it, I'd also admit I was wrong in my assessment of the team. RAJ has shown the ability to make deadline delas in the past so I'd have faith he'd do so again.

But at this moment it doesn't appear that anything more is going to happen this off-season, so I'm very skeptical. Don't forget, he's the one who didn't act upon his own statements about the offense yet. I don't know if he's trying (or not). I don't know if he can (or Not). I do know he hasn't been able (or willing) to sign any FA for whatever reason. That is the sole thing that's bothering me right now. I wish we all knew what was going on.

I could see K-Rod and Utley throwing down at CBP.

"He finally admitted to evereyone that he made mistakes about the 'pen last year, then went and did something about it."

DPat, the bullpen also had it's fair share of injuries. Losing Herndon and Stutes hurt a lot - they had performed fairly weel the year before and were beign counted on - and Contreras was being counted on as well. DeFratus would have been a logical call-up and he broke down.

Also, Halladay, Worley and Lee all spent time on teh Dl, so as much as we acknowledge that the injuries to Howard and Utley affected the team's performance, the injuries to the pitching staff probably hurt the team just as much.

I was listening to XM radio and caught the tailend of a conversation about the possibility of Utly traded to the A.L. Can anyone expand on this?

"Nothing great is being said about the moves he made, because he didn't make a game-changing player type of move."

Dom, this is the kind of comment that really ought not to be made.

In the last offseason, the Angels made "a game-changing player type of move" - Albert Pujols - and they wound up playing golf and watching the playoffs on TV. Detroit made "a game-changing player type of move" - Prince Fielder - and they didn't win the WS either. (BTW, it was their pitching that got them there.) The Marlins made "a game-changing player type of move" in signing Reyes and they finished last.

OTOH, the Giants did not make what you would characterize as "a game-changing player type of move" and they won the WS.

Those "game-changing player type of move[s]" that people like you love and drool over just don't work out that often.

I agree with Corey that another 'hitter' is needed for the bench.
I also agree with posters who think the Phillies bench will be: Kratz (Valle initially), Frandsen, Mayberry, Nix, Galvis (assuming Ruf starting in LF).

But to me that would limit the 'flexibility' of having Young and Frandsen on the team. Both could play SS for a couple games, and if needed, Galvis could be called up.

I'd much prefer a PH type instead of Galvis. Issue I see is that the bench (if Nix starts) is all righty batters. That is why I thought both Nix and Schierholtz could remain on the roster.

But getting a 'starter' in LF pushes Nix into that PH role (and Ruf to AAA which is where I think he should be). Right now, I have no idea who the 'starting LF' is and I'd prefer not to have someone with ridiculous salary there in case Ruf breaks out. Also, I'd prefer someone with the option to play RF in case Brown is the one who fails. For what its worth, I think Ruf could play RF just as poorly as LF since his arm.

From a game situation, Mayberry is the guy who should be in there to end the game. Nix should not bat against LHP. When Mayberry enters he stays since he still has power against RHP and is a useful fielder at all the OF positions. Brown likewise would stay in game. PH order would be Nix, Mayberry, Frandsen, Kratz, Galvis.

I think the Phils have two OF starters right now, Revere and Brown. The other OF position is up for grabs.

The team could be reluctant to make another move right now because they need to get a better handle on Ruf.

If Ruf makes the cut in ST, he could be either a starter or part of a platoon with Nix or somebody better. If Ruf does not make the cut or if he is slumping badly by the AS break, the team then will be forced to make a trade.

I think the team should keep Mayberry as a bench guy.

Revere, Brown, and Revere should be part of the 2013 OF. It is premature to say what role either Ruf or Nix will have, if any.

That is, Revere, Brown, and Mayberry should be part of the 2013 OF.

I think Galvis should start in AAA and be brought up as soon as Utley or Rollins hit the DL (Despite the positive reports to the contrary, I think Utley will again begin the season on the DL. So, Galvis would again be the starter at second to open the season.).

I think Frandsen should be back-up at third and the late-inning defensive replacement at third. Since Young is a durable player, Frandsen probably wouldn't play much.

The Phils will need another bench IF. If Utley, as expected, will miss a lot of time again, this other bench guy should be a good one. The Phils' organization does not have that player right now

I don't think there even a chance of a "double platoon." Firstly, RF has a starter: Domonic Brown. Secondly, history has shown that asking Charlie to successfully work one platoon is a huge leap of faith, let alone two. The FO has to know this.

Not going to happen.

PhxPhilly: One small disagreement: Valle will begin at AAA and Quintero will be Kratz' back-up.

TTI- thanks for giving MG a reality check on TOS. I had forgotten that Harrison needed it. He's probably the best success story.

It also probably works in Adams' favor that he is a RP and won't be relied on to throw more than 20-25 pitches at a time. He's also someone that can be successful with diminished velocity (and has been wildly successful for a few years now) because of his pinpoint control of his slider. The guy is basically a later-version Lidge who actually knows where the ball is going. And we all know that if Lidge knew where the ball was going when he threw it, he would have had prolonged success here and pitched into his 40s.

What would it take to trade for Granderson? Would Valle (or Joseph), Mayberry and Pettibone be enough? That's at least a starting point. Yankees have needs in all of those areas. Revere can go back to a corner w/ Granderson in CF. Then it's Ruf/Nix or hopefully, just Ruf w/ Nix on bench for PH and defense. Luxury tax be damned!

Oogie: Yankees may have needs in all those areas, but when was the last time they traded a star for prospects? Maybe they have, but I can't think of a time in the last 20 years.

Not only that but if you get Granderson, you would put him in LF on the Phillies and keep Revere in CF.

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EST. 2005

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