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Saturday, December 22, 2012

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2010-2012 OPS+
Jason Kubel: 111
Cody Ross: 105

Makes sense to sign Ross to more money so you can trade Kubel.

Wish we had a GM that awesome.

During his baseball career, Ross has travelled throughout the continental USA and has finally returned home to the SW. No doubt his other preferred option was Texas. Nice to be home.

Kubel would be okay if the Phillies weren't already a lefty heavy lineup. Between Kubel, Howard, Utley and Brown, it's too many lefties because three of them don't hit lefties well anymore and the fourth, Brown, we don't really know about. So, will they spend 7 million for a platoon type player? I wouldn't. Even though it would be nice to have power. He's averaged 21 homers per season the last three years. Not exactly game changing power. And what would the Phillies have to give up for him?

I think Rube needs to stick with Ruf in left until he proves he can't hit major league pitching on a consistent basis. And he needs to stick with Brown in right until the same. Revere will be in center with 20 starts for Mayberry. And Nix? Who really cares. He's never likely to be a factor unless there are a bunch of injuries.

If it's Cloyd for Kubel, then fine. But I wouldn't give a real prospect for him. Oh, and in a very small sample size, he's not a good pinch hitter either.

Are we sure that 2014 option is a mutual option? Baseball Reference says it's a TEAM option. There's a huge difference. If it's a mutual option, he would very likely opt out after 1 year (since he's worth more than $7.5M); if it's a team option, you'd be getting him for 2 years.

Trading for Kubel could well have the trickle-down effect of hastening Dom's departure. That would be ok by me if we were getting Kubel for 2 years, but not if it were only for 1 year.

I get the sense that posters here don't realize that Kubel is a bad fielder. Or that Arizona is unlikely to deal him without getting a legitimate prospect in return.

But yeah, it's great that Rube passed on all those other guys so we could get Kubel.

oh thank goodness. Really did not want Cody F'n Ross. Still prefer Swisher. Kubel wouldn't be bad depending on the trade, of course. If you build a big enough lead in innings 1-6, you don't have to worry about the LOOGY in the 7th or 8th.

jbird: Yep, can't imagine they'd need a LOOGY or a setup guy if they get Kubel.

I don't want Swisher. He would cost the Phils the 16th pick in the 1st round to sign and he has more playoff strikeouts than total bases over the last several years.

Jim: No he doesn't.

And I don't think you will need to lose any sleep over the possibility of the Phillies signing Swisher. It seems like quite a long shot at this point.

Hopefully Ruben isn't also away on an ayawaska retreat while trades could be made for Upton or Stanton. Every rumored FA move Amaro didn't make for a power hitting OF verifies in my mind that he had a trade plan from the get-go.

Kubel's a decent hitter yet wouldn't be an ideal fit for this team given:

- LH bat

- Reaally should be a 1B/DH given how bad he is defensive and only capable of playing LF

- How much his numbers were inflated by playing in one of the best hitter's park in baseball last year especially from a power perspective with 18 HRs in 72 home games and only 12 in 69 road games.

It made a lot of sense for Amaro to try to get Willingham from the Twins. It wouldn't make a lot of sense for the Phils to try to get Kubel & they don't really have the MLB young talent (starting pitchig) or prospects (especially at 2nd/3rd).

Meyer, for some reason I keep thinking that Stanton has been in the back of Roob's mind all this time, too.

I think Rube needs to stick with Ruf in left until he proves he can't hit major league pitching on a consistent basis. And he needs to stick with Brown in right until the same.

The Phillies passed on their chance to make any positive OF changes when they decided the luxury tax &/or draft picks were too high a price to pay for being a legit contender. That being the case it makes no sense to trade anyone for, at best, marginal gain. I agree w/ the above. Let Ruf & Brown play, & let them fail. It's unlikely to make any difference in the outcome of the '13 season, anyway.

Speaking of Ross, I don't think the D'Backs got him to be a starter. They're idiots if they did.

An OF of Upton-Eaton-Parra would be the best defensive OF in the NL. Eaton has great range and above-average arm in CF. Upton and Parra we already know about.

Where Ross comes in is vs. LHP. Parra doesn't hit 'em much and Eaton had a weak split in the minors (although he actually hit LHP last year in an MLB SSS.)

My guess is that Ross is used almost in a straight platoon with Parra and occasional fill-in for Eaton against tough LHP.

Is Chase Field really friendly to right-handed pull hitters like Ross? If so, the deal makes a little more sense especially if Towers can dangle Kubel at his trade value maximum for starting pitching or some decent MLB-ready prospects.

DBacks have some really nice younger talent on their roster but they likely to have ~$75M and of that they are paying Ross/Bell nearly $15M next year (~20% of their payroll).

Seems like some poor utilization of funds for guys who might give them >2 WAR combined next year.

If Kubel gets the DBacks a stud infield prospect or a solid young MLB ready infielder, the Ross deal makes more sense.

Less than <2 WAR. Hated Bell the trade for them especially when there are still some arms on the FA market who would have been as cheap or cheaper than the 2 yr/$10M the DBacks are stuck paying Bell the next 2 years.

Clout: you don't have to worry about the OTHER team's LOOGY if you are winning. I believe I stated my preference for Swisher. Your "gotcha" act is really becoming predictable and boring.

Think the Diamondbacks will trade Kubel for another shortstop?

I dont so me much point in Raul. Actually i didnt see too much point in the Thome signing either. Rube has this fascination with 40 yo players. A few years back one could say they need a veteran blah blah as the Core was somewhat young. This isnt the case anymore. I guess Rube is looking for someone that can still hit HR's every 90 AB's.

I have never watched a lot of Kubel, but if he's a bad fielder, then I'm doubly not interested in him.

Unless Rube has some major trade up his sleeve, then I think it's time to sit back and see what the current Phillies can do.

I'd just as soon they pick up Marcum and have insurance for Kendrick/Lannan/Halladay. Especially Halladay.

Who will have the better year in 2013...

Lannan or Worley?

jbird: My apologies. I misunderstood your post.

aksmith: Kubel to Phils is merely speculation by Corey, unsupported by any evidence. Can't imagine Rube would be interested. If he is dealt (and the Ross signing makes it more likely), Dbacks will get a quality prospect or useful MLB piece in return.

Not crazy about a double platoon, but I'd take a double platoon of what we have over trading for Kubel.

Maybe it's just me, but this strikes me as the kind of smart signing I wish Rube would've done:

Brewers signed LHP Tom Gorzelanny to a two-year, $5.7 million contract.

Thank goodness for Revere. Hurts just thinking of a Ruf-Brown-Ender OF.

why didn't the dbacks just keep chris young?

I think that 5:30 post is from imposter NEPP:

(1) Real NEPP is not enough of an optimist to say things like, "We have to stay hopeful."

(2) Real NEPP is a realist and would never declare any team -- let alone one which went 81-81 last year -- to be "shoe-ins" for anything.

(3) Real NEPP has never shown himself to be terribly concerned about giving up draft picks to get an established major league player.

(4) Real NEPP, arguably the single most knowledgeable poster on the board, wouldn't be talking about signing an outfielder in next year's FA class, when our clear priorities will be 2nd base, catcher, and starting pitching.

(5) While real NEPP might agree that almost all the prospects in our system are "light years from being MLB ready," real NEPP would see that as an argument for trading them, not an argument for keeping them.

(6) I don't think real NEPP is quite so sanguine about Darrin Ruf's chances as this NEPP is.

Ben: They had an overabundance of outfielders, no closer and no SS. Plus, Young's salary jumps from $8.5M to $14M in 2014 unless they buy him out for $1.5M. So they'd lose him anyway.

They dealt him for Bell & Pennington to fill 2 holes.

I like real NEPP, & enjoy reading his posts. Fake NEPP needs to go pound sand. I don't find his act even mildly amusing, & I am notoriously easily amused.

BAP: I agree. Also, NEPP is smart enough to realize the phrase is "shoo-in" not "shoe-in."

I also think that 5:08 post is imposter NEPP. I just can't see real NEPP coming onto Beerleaguer just to say, "Boy, are the phillies screwed in the outfield or what."

On the other hand, the first post on this thread: real NEPP.

I hope JW will wake up at the wheel and get rid of whoever is doing the fake posting.

Clout? Should be clout.

Boy, are the phillies screwed in the outfield or what.

Posted by: NEPP | Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 05:08 PM


Really, this crap again?

Also, excellent analysis by bap and clout. The only post by me in this thread was the initial one about OPS+.

If that was actually clout he would either be posting in order to agree w/ himself, or call b_a_p a moron.

Maybe I could start using html tags in all my posts to see how good the imposter is at writing it out like you have to on this blog.

***Brewers signed LHP Tom Gorzelanny to a two-year, $5.7 million contract***

I agree, clout (assumes its the real one). Gorzelanny is a good bargain at that price. He can be a swingman or a pretty solid reliever...either way, its a good signing.

NEPP: That's a great idea plan.

NEPP: There were also a slew of grammatical and punctuation errors in that post, which was the other reason I knew it wasn't you. But, in the off chance that it really WAS you, I thought it best not to point those out.

In anticipation of what's to come . . . I will be out from now until around midnight EDT. If posts are written under my handle during that time frame, they are not really from me -- unless, of course, those posts predict something that turns out to be true, in which case I will be there 6 months from now to take credit.

There were also a slew of grammatical and punctuation errors in that post, which was the other reason I knew it wasn't you. But, in the off chance that it really WAS you, I thought it best not to point those out.

I appreciate your restraint, bap.

While I share my fake imposter's sentiments on leaving, that was not me above.

How about Mark Trumbo from the Angels. Now that they've signed Josh Hamilton, they have a surplus of outfielders. He hit 34 HRs,95 RBI & is right handed, only 26 years old & cheap($500,00 yr)! Seems like a perfect fit for the Phils!

All reports have the Angels wanting to keep Trumbo to play LF and move Bourjos and/or Wells instead.

They don't really NEED to make a move so there's no reason for them to give Trumbo up lightly.

Ruf should hit those numbers with a 600 AB season.

So I'm the only one other than Corey that would be completely on-board with trading for Kubel? It's the best option I've heard so far, outside of Swisher, honestly.

Here's Mayberry last year vs. LHP: .271/.317/.494/.811, 8 HR
And Kubel vs. RHP: .264/.348/.540/.888, 23 HR

That is an excellent combined production out of LF, and the 31 combined HRs came in ~540 PAs- around 1 every 18 PAs, so if they combined for 660 ABs, that's between 35-40 HRs. For that production, with Revere in CF, Kubel could play with his shoestrings tied together in the OF and it would be worth it.

I know the big question is, obviously, what about Laynce Nix? Since he didn't accumulate many ABs last season, it's fairer to look at his career numbers vs. LHP: .

253/.297/.447/.744

Here's the answer to that question: just dump his sorry ass and eat the salary.

Took care of it.

Whoops. Those are Nix's career numbers vs. RHP*

I think the two platoon idea isn't a great one, but that's mainly because none of the four OFs can be depended upon to do anything. With Kubel, he is as close to a lock as you can get to mash RHP. Play him 30% of the time, let Mayberry and Ruf fight it out to get the other 30%, and if Brown continues to flounder, platoon him with whoever isn't subbing for Kubel. And more importantly, get Nix off the team.

You'd be cutting your worst OF and replacing him with a guy that slugs over .500 vs RHP with what will probably be a .850ish OPS. That's a much better outcome than relying on Nix to be competent, or signing Ross and losing Mayberry's production vs LHP or preventing Ruf from getting ABs. And the price isn't prohibitive.

Towers has shown a willingness to get bent over in trades this off-season. If Rube isn't trying to work him right now, he's screwing up big time.

Thanks, JW.

Thank-you JW.

Seriously appreciate it.

I dont think we're in a good position at this point to make another trade. Our system sucked before we made two trades...its probably in the bottom 5 at this point.

Lannan > Gorzelanny

NEPP: yes, that was me on Gorz. Here's how you'll be able to tell when a post with my name is fake: It will read real stupid. Like a Fatalotti post.

NEPP- have you seen the other trades Towers has made this off-season? And now he has basically announced that he intends to trade Kubel.

I'm not saying he should empty the farm, but Rube should absolutely be trying to fleece him here. Try to make magic with that Cloyd/Valle package again.

Iceman: You like Kubel better than Hart?

lorecore: You sure about that?

I'd imagine Hart would cost quite a bit more than Kubel.

That said, Hart is a far better fit for our lineup for a variety of reasons...including handedness and the fact that he can play RF (very badly but he can still do it) while Kubel is restricted solely to LF and he sucks there as badly as Hart sucks in RF.

Lannan > Gorzelanny

I'll take that bet. Of course I also think stale dog crap > Lannan, so maybe I'm the wrong person to ask.

Gorzelanny was mostly a reliever last year and even a good bit of 2011. Lannan is not. Its not really a apples to apples comparison at this point. As a reliever the last two seasons, Gorzelanny was quite good.

Gorz got demoted and had to pitch out of then pen the last two seasons, where he has beeb able to pitch better - but the Phils needed a 5th starter. Thats why Lannan is better.

lorecore: I agree that a 5th starter is more valuable than a RP, but I'd argue that Gorz is a better RP than Lannan is a SP.

I wouldn't have minded signing both Gorz and Lannan...as Gorz would have significantly fortified our bullpen. Here's his numbers as a reliever:

2011: 15 G, 22.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, .617 OPS against, 1.075 WHIP
2012: 44 G, 68.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, .708 OPS against, 1.302 WHIP

He's a good bet at what the Brewers will be paying him...assuming they signed him to be a reliever.

NEPP: "I'd imagine Hart would cost quite a bit more than Kubel."

Not sure about that. Kubel signed at reasonable price through 2014. Hart is free agent at end of 2013.

Hart is a more complete hitter and a significantly better hitter. I'd think that would compensate for that extra year Kubel gives you.

Raul signs with Seattle

I predict that will work out about as well as Griffey Jr going back did.

clout- no, I'd definitely like Hart more. His numbers over the past three years are consistently very good and he is a full-time player.

But like NEPP, I think it would cost quite a bit more to get him, and we'd only be getting him for a year. I seem to remember reading where Milwaukee wanted a hefty return for him. And they really don't have to trade him right now- whereas AZ has basically boxed themselves in to trading somebody.

I'd rather pay much lesser in prospects for 2 years of a guy the Phils already have a platoon complement for than pay a king's ransom for one year of Hart. But all things being equal, yeah, I'd take Hart.

Considering the Mariners already have 1B and DH covered, do they actually plan to play Ibanez in the outfield in Safeco?

That could get pretty ugly.

Rubes concession speech if the season doesnt live up to expectations. This year was a transitional year for us. We thought we could get another year out of core talent. We decided to keep the payroll flexibility and draft choices to make this a better ball club during this period. Feel free to point out grammatical errors.

Some handwringing the other day about Pirates dealing Hanrahan, but if reports are correct, they got a couple nice players back from Boston: Jerry Sands and Stolmy Pimentel.

Sands is a solid power-hitting prospect, MLB ready right now. Dodgers had no place to play him last season so he spent year in Trip A and put up a .900 OPS. He can play corner OF (where he'd be slightly below average) or 1B (where he's slightly above average.) Some scouts compare him to Willingham.

RHP Stolmy Pimentel entered the 2011 season as Boston's 6th best prospect, per BA. Not suprising since he throws in mid-90s and doesn't walk a lot of guys.

But some genius got the idea that he should throw a slider instead of a curve. This idea wasn't as stupid as the Phils attempt to convert Aumont into a SP, but it had the same results: A totally lost season in 2011.

The Sox backed off and he bounced back this past season, increasing his K/9 and lowering his BB/9 in Double A. His breaking stuff needs refinement as he's giving up a hit an inning, but he keeps the ball on the ground for the most part and projects as a decent #4 SP and maybe lots better if he gets a handle on his curve and changeup.

If this is what the trade turns out to be, I like it a lot for the Pirates.

***This idea wasn't as stupid as the Phils attempt to convert Aumont into a SP***

Well, that's a pretty high bar to attain.

Clout - Makes a lot more sense than the proposed Gordon/Harang for Hanrahan rumors.

Ibanez's contract is $2.75 M base with another $1.25 M in performance bonuses.

St. Louis gave Wigginton a 2 yr/$5 million deal.

Yup. I'm still incredulous.

Wigginton is a versatile infield bat that provides great RH power.


The worst part of that deal is that it will somehow work out for them. Their 1B will go down and he'll move across the diamond and hit 35 HRs with an .850 OPS in 2013. These things always seem to work out for STL.

NEPP: yes, that was me on Gorz. Here's how you'll be able to tell when a post with my name is fake: It will read real stupid. Like a Fatalotti post.

Posted by: clout | Saturday, December 22, 2012 at 07:58 PM

Um clout, I'm sorry, but my brand of stupidity is unique and inimitable.

If Wigginton can call himself versatile, then I can do the same. I can stand up, sit down, and even hop on one foot.

Wigginton has no position in the field. He is one of the worst defensive players I've ever seen.

I've always liked Jerry Sands more than the professional prospect prognosticators do.

I assume a deal for Hart would start with Dom Brown and one of our better pitchers, plus a well regarded 3rd Like Valley.

"Their 1B will go down and he'll move across the diamond and hit 35 HRs with an .850 OPS in 2013. These things always seem to work out for STL."........I was thinking something like this to but didnt want to say it.

Hey Phillies! Go get Michael Bourn!

Manny is getting hot. Lets sign him, bring a Lil something something with him, and hand it out to a few guys. Maybe we will have some circa 2007 hitters.

jbird: "I've always liked Jerry Sands more than the professional prospect prognosticators do."

Me too. He went to a small college and wound up getting drafted in the 25th round probably because he's a John Kruk type body, only bigger. So he looks a little sloppy in the uniform.

But body types can be misleading. He's a good athlete (as Kruk was) who's got good baseball skills. His BB/K ratio has always been solid, he's a smart baserunner and in 5 seasons of minor league he's got an OPS of .938. In fact, except for his first season, he's never had an OPS below .900.

I guarantee this guy will hit MLB pitching good enough to be an everyday player.

Sad about Freel.

jbird: got a big chuckle out of your first post in this thread re: Cody F'n Ross. Watching Game 1 NLCS 2010, Ross had already hit one out; when he hit the 2nd I had my back turned. I yelled, who hit that? When the wife said Cody Ross, I said, "you're kidding - Cody F'ing Ross??" To this day we call him that every time.

Kubel / Mayberry platoon would make for nice production in the corner OF. Relegate Nix to a bench role, which would be more fitting as well.

I thought Kubel's was the name of a bar/restaurant on LBI.
Seriously, glad we passed on Ross and several other rumored OF acquisitions. If we can't get a real upgrade, we might as well get younger.

Been saying for weeks Ross wouldn't come here he's a member of the Boras tribe and Montgomery Is not about to dance with him.
If they are hell bound to sign another lefty why not Granderson ? Had as many HR's as Hamilton and at the CBP he could hit 50.

This offense unless another power hitter is added is bewildering. They not a power hitting team not a high obp team. They will struggle a bit to find a identity. I see a lot of 2-1, 3-2 games. The pitching is the focal point of this team. Really has been since Werth left.

My guess is Ruf will hit as many home runs as Howard,with less strike outs.The big question with Ruf would be his field of play. Take a look at the top home run hitters,one thing most have in common is the quick bat speed,which helps in seeing the last split second spinning rotation of a breaking pitch. which Howard has trouble with,that's why he strike out a lot. Will Ruf strike out a lot,maybe so,time will tell on this. Fact is most home run hitters do. I hope Ruf gets the chance to show his talent of hitting for power.
bluestar

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