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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

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BAP - The one reason Swisher doesn't make as much sense are the years involved. The Phils can field a competitive team with their current contracts for the next coupla years, but it's really hard to see beyond that. Young on a 1-year deal, Hamilton on a 3-year deal, Soriano on a 2, etc. fit into that window.

Corey - Completely agree. This trade would be a joke.

Sophist-- and isn't the market on Swisher pointing toward a 4yr deal?

@jaysonst: I've looked into this 50 times. Can't find any evidence the #Phillies have seriously pursued Josh Hamilton.


It's the most wonderful time of the year~

Alfonso wouldn't offend me. It's obvious Domonic Bust isn't held in high regard anymore, no matter where he ranked on the prospect list. Even if he is, what's the point in playing games with him further in Philly? He has better odds of developing in Wrigley. Soriano isn't all that offensive though sure, Ross might be preferable.

Thank you Corey, thought I was going insane when I heard the rumor and didn't see any outrage over it on here. Guess I was just a bit early.

Not sure I believe this would be the whole deal, but whatever. Isn't going to happen.

One of the funniest BL threads ever (previous Hamilton thread) only lasts twenty minutes. Jack and others pretending to hold their noses about a potential signing of a guy with a .900 OPS because it's 'the only thing that will salvage the off-season' was high comedy.

Cyclic - Not sure. I thought he asked for 5 years.

I'd be outraged, too. About the loss of money, though, not about the loss of Brown.

Report: The Phils have offered BJ Upton a 5-year contract.

A week later: at $20M less in guaranteed money than his competing offer.

Trading Brown for Soriano is the definition of foolish. That's essentially selling Dom Brown for cash since if you were willing to take his deal off their hands, you could have him for Cloyd and a bag of Sunflower Seeds.

So is Gargano making things up (not exactly out of character) or has the FO thus far managed to keep the offer information from the much better-connected Stark?

JIM BOWDEN
‏@JimBowdenESPNxm
Indians hoping to sign Nick Swisher for 4yrs $48-$50m...but market shift has him looking for 4yrs $60m
Dec 7

Though, I guess the Choo deal might mean the Indians would go hard after Swisher.

FYI - Defensive metrics say that Soriano is one of the best defensive outfielders(9th in Fielding Value) in all of baseball over the past two seasons.

Amaro is up to something. He tends to leak ridiculous rumors to get people off his trail.

Stark reporting the Cubs approached the Phils about Soriano, Phils were initially uninterested, but are "knocking the idea around." That makes me feel better about this for some reason.

Half of me thinks Brown has been mishandled by the Phils and the other half thinks he hasn't made enough of the opportunities he's been given. The first part wants the Phils to give the guy a full year in the majors playing regularly and the other half thinks he's an underachiever and needs to go elsewhere. The one thing I know for sure is that I will be peeved if they get rid of him and he makes us all wish they hadn't.

@Limoguy I agree about the being mishandled thing. They really haven't developed anyone for a while now.

Obviously, Rube is not finished this off-season, but right now I'm neutral on whether I'd say he passed or failed. Pros: He filled 2 needs. A young, low-cost speedy CF'der with no arm and no power who can get maybe 160 hits. If he steals 40 bases, we can call that 40 doubles. He then got Young from Texas to play 3rd. Young had a bad year last year, is 36, and below average. defensively. RAJ filled these needs without breakig the bank, which he wasn't going to do. Cons: He gave up some decent young pitching and created a hole in the rotation. He now has to fill that hole, get the 8th inning guy, and still bring in a bat or 2. How he does this will define his off-season. One thing is certain, as of right now, they better than they were, but still the 3rd best team in the division.

My gut feeling RE: Dom is that he's never going to live up to anywhere near his potential, at least not in Philadelphia. There doesn't seem to be any rhyme or reason to what the Phillies are doing for him, developmentally speaking. If Dom gets a fresh start elsewhere & finds his touch, so be it. The kid has never done anything to make me root against him. That said, I'm not in the mood to wait another 2-3 yrs. for a breakout that never comes.

Sophist, I don't get that logic (that 4 years makes Swisher unattractive). I mean, if Hamilton at 3 years is the alternative, then okay, but it's not like the team is going to shrink its payroll to $100 million or something such that 35-year-old Swisher at $15m becomes a terrible albatross. And in exchange you get a lot more money to play with now, to the tune of 11.67m AAV, assuming 4/60 for Swish or 3/80 for Hamilton.

Did Amaro hire Andy Reid as a Consultant?

fumphis - I figured Swisher was getting 5 years. I wouldn't complain about Swisher at either a 4 or 5 year deal to be honest. I'm just arguing that Hamilton at a 3-year deal is a good fit for the club as constructed. Swisher at 4 is less so, though as you say it's arguably not "an albatross."

Just realized this team is going to be scary bad in 2 years. Halladay, Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, Young all possibly gone.

Posted by : I --- thats not necessarily a bad thing?

"Just realized this team is going to be scary bad in 2 years. Halladay, Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, Young all possibly gone."

Um, one of these things is not like the others...

You're not honestly be worried about Michael Young not being here in 2014, right? You're just messing with us.

Either gone or re-signed cheaper. Maybe I'm too loyal, but I'd like to see all of them remain Phillies for life. Doubt Chase could stick at 2nd for too much longer though.

I'd kill to see a 63 y/o Schmidtty manning the hot corner for life, too, but only if he possessed the skills/ability of the 1980's player who had a HoF career.

Acquire Soriano & Hamilton and become Wheeze Kids 2.0

Blanks list of plaers potentially no longer here assumes the phillies don't use that $60-70m in freed up payroll to sign anyone else.

This to Murphy that he RT'd pretty much sums up my feelings on the speculation:

@manthony11: let's go w brown sucks. You're saying soriano doesn't? if they both do, I like my suck more athletic and cheaper

Obviously I am not worried about Young not being here but just looking at this roster, it doesnt look pretty in 2 years.

Platoon Brown and Ruff and go hard after Swisher, who happens to be exactly what this lineup needs and what it has needed since Mr. Werth went to Washington. OBP, BB. Won't even waste further characters on the Soriano rumor.

Willard: Has anyone seen Schmidt at third recently? Perhaps he could sign to be a late inning defensive replacement for Young.

"Obviously I am not worried about Young not being here but just looking at this roster, it doesnt look pretty in 2 years."

Dude, you're either 8 years old, or a troll.

If not, then please enlighten us as to whose roster projects best 2 years from now, and make sure you account for payroll off the books, off season FA signings and any trade info you might have. Thanks! I'm on the edge of my seat.

Oh, and feel free to throw in a handle, so we'll know who to credit when it all goes down and we're celebrating our sports book futures payoff.

WP: Don't discount the possibility that he could be an 8 year old troll.

Question: Do trolls age like humans, or is it a dog years kinda thing ... or even a reverse dog years kinda thing?

Don't know Dave. Just know that by definition they live under bridges. Many appear to be Mets fans too. Hope that helps.

In 2 years...

Galvis will be Omar Vizquel
Brown will be Darryl Strawberry
Revere will be Ichiro Suzuki
Ruf will be Matt Holliday

I'd say this team looks great in 2 years.

donc: Lotta bridges in & around NY. It's all beginning to make sense to me now ...

WP: damn, pretty harsh dude. I would argue that the Phils have a lot more question marks in 2 years than a lot of other contenders around the league.

Nats Giants Cardinals Reds Braves all come to my mind pretty quickly.

Good point GTown. Can't get to Shitifield without crossing a lot of bridges.

2 years is a long time. Even Mini-Mart might be a superstar 2 years from now.

2 years is a long time. Even Mini-Mart might be a superstar 2 years from now.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Tuesday, December 11, 2012 at 07:51 PM

Take it back!

I'm just going to go ahead & assume b_a_p was killed by a sudden lightning strike immediately after making that post. RIP.

This Dom for Soriano deal makes no sense to me. Did they recently legalize marijuana in Chicago and I missed the news about it? I think Dom Brown is a bust and he needs a new place to stink up, I mean, to play. Soriano for Brown? Really? C'mom man!

What a ridiculously stupid deal to make.

I wouldn't mind Soriano at all here in LF. It all depends on the terms (prospects and dollars the Cubs eat).

If the Phils are still on the hook for $26M over the final 2 years of the deal and have to give up Brown, that's a poor deal any way you cut it this year & next year.

looks like they legalized weed in Houston as well...

What I really think is happening with the Hamilton situation is this:

The Rangers are going to sign him. It's the best place for him, and they've failed to acquire anyone else who is an impact player. They need him, and he probably needs them.

So they're likely going to match any bid for him. That being the case, they have every incentive to wait it out. Why negotiate against yourself?

So I am either 8 or a troll when talking about how I see the NEAR future of this OLD team yet people are discussing a Brown for Sor swap?

Ok got that.

lorecore, his consecutive posts:

"Just realized this team is going to be scary bad in 2 years. Halladay, Rollins, Utley, Ruiz, Young all possibly gone."

"Obviously I am not worried about Young not being here but just looking at this roster, it doesnt look pretty in 2 years."

I'll concede that perhaps I was a bit harsh to assume he's either 8 or a troll.

However, the alternative is that there actually is a human being alive that is predicting a "scary bad" team because it does not utilize the services of a to-be 37 Halladay, to-be 35 Rollins, to-be 35 Chooch, and a to-be 35 Utley (with the knees of a man older than 35, presumably...). That logic is one I can't seriously get my head around.

I won't argue that there are plenty of question marks to concern ourselves with 2 years from now, but we have the next two years to start to sort those out and plan for them.

See Willard, I am afraid that trying to fill holes now is going to effect the near future, aka trading away prospects or having to rely on nothing but free agency for a few years because the "farm system" hasn't developed.

What prospects have the Phils dealt that have amounted to anything though?

If the Phils are 'scary bad' in 2 years it will be several factors include several years of poor drafting and development.

Does it bother anyone that there is not one Yankees fan that wants them to re-sign Swisher or is at all upset that he's not coming back?

As for 'scary bad', the Phils should still spend at an adequate level to stave off that fate.

Just more of a good old-fashioned 'bad team' that is struggles to .500 like the Mets have been the past few years.

I'd be willing to see what happens with Ruf in left and Domonic Brown in right if Rube would acquire an okay starter and a good setup man. I give him points for trying to trade for the setup guy, and if he's good for Colorado, they have to seriously look at firing their medical staff. But that aside, the eighth inning and fifth starter remain unaddressed as names go off the board. McCarthy to the DBacks for 2 years/15.5 million. Seems pretty reasonable for them. Apparently, Rube is looking cheaper.

Swisher's unpopular in NY I bet almost exclusively because of his perceived attitude and postseason numbers.

Good luck on the Yankees replacing his ~.850 OPS next year with the internal options they have or with resigning Ichiro.

I think that he who will not post a handle is outsmarting clout for the inevitable "use one handle" meme that he's famous for.

scatoot, why should it?

1) Yankees fans aren't notorious for being rational.

2) Look at the dude's numbers over the past 4 seasons:

2009: 150 G, 29 HR, 35 2B, 97 BB, 82 RBI, 122 OPS+
2010: 150 G, 29 HR, 33 2B, 58 BB, 89 RBI, 129 OPS+
2011: 150 G, 23 HR, 30 2B, 95 BB, 85 RBI, 120 OPS+
2012: 148 G, 24 HR, 36 2B, 77 BB, 93 RBI, 126 OPS+

Insanely consistent. If Yankees fans aren't upset about losing that, then they're crazy, and their opinion is even more irrelevant than I originally thought.

Where are all you jackasses that defended the Howard extension now? Still think it's a good deal and it's not hamstringing the club?

Yeah, thought so.

Carson: What is the connection about all of this to the Howard deal?


On Swisher: I seriously am baffled we are not in on him. His suitors are the Mariners and Indians and the Indians were trying to get him for 4/48. Even if the market switched to 4/60- you telling me the Phillies couldn't do that deal?

Also- if they are willing to go over the luxury tax by giving all that money to Hamilton I would much rather try to go Swisher/Sanchez and shoot over the cap.

Heyman also strikes me as a 'whatever sticks to the wall' reporter especially on his tweets.

Kind of take his stuff with a grain of salt because of it too.

If the Howard extension prevents the Phillies from acquiring Soriano, that's one positive.

Wait, there were posters who actually defended the extension? I thought there were just posters who didn't mention it in every thread.

TTI, exactly. Much rather pay $28 M a year on Swisher/Sanchez than $25-28 M a year on Hamilton. Don't even have to think about that.

The Phils just extended Hamels for many years after completely overpaying for Papelbon and making the FA move of the previous offseason (Lee). Howard's contact was a bad deal because of the timing and because Howard is not playing well. The only move it has so far prevented them from making is a move for a better 1B.

I think GM is deep in his cups if you know what I mean.

Soriano does have value and I don't understand why anyone thinks the Cubs will trade him for marginal prospects & eat a ton of money in the process to do so.

Kind of same delusional thinking I saw on a few sites regarding Young.

Cubs have already reduced their payroll in a big way since Epstein became general manager, there is a corner OF prospect who is really pushing Soriano, and Soriano hasn't been some kind of clubhouse cancer or trouble maker.

If the Cubs are going to eat at least $10M of his contract and probably more, they are going to need at least one legit prospect back in return and maybe even two depending upon how much they eat of his contract.

fata / TTI: What about Dallas Braden + Hamilton vs Swisher + Sanchez?

My point is the Howard extension prohibits them from filling the 3 remaining holes (setup man, backend starter, outfielder with thump).

We keep talking about Hamilton and Swisher, but the money just isn't there, assuming they're sticking to the $20M left in the budget to spend.

Joe Blanton got 2 YR/$15M for crying out loud. Kevin Correia 2 YR/$10M. Yeah, not really gonna get anything good on the cheap, because cheap is now apparently Jason Marquis at 1 YR/$3M.

Hamilton- at least $25M a season. Swisher- $15M. Hell, Cody Ross is probably looking at a 2 YR $16M at the minimum.

But there we have 1st baseman in a massive decline the is a 1 facet only player (HR/RBI) making a crap-ton of money.

That's my point.

Ok, off my soapbox now.

MG - I think Soriano could be a great fit for the Phils, and I agree that there's an unrealistic evaluation of Phils prospects. Depending on what's given up I might actually prefer Soriano to Ross. That said, Brown for Soriano only makes sense if the Phils get a bag with $36M in it and even then I don't love it.

GM Carson - Howard is making $20M this year and then it jumps to $25M. It does hamper them a bit but it isn't main reason why they are hampered in making deals this offseason.

If he steals 40 bases, we can call that 40 doubles.

Uh no. Steals don't push other baserunners around the bases.

Sophist, that'd be a huge bag.

Is Braden healthy? What's his story? Only started 3 games since the beginning of 2011.

I didn't think I could get angrier than potentially signing Cody Ross.

I was wrong.

Are they insane?!

If I am a GM though with a veteran corner OF, backend starter, or bullpen reliever I want to unload, I have Amaro on speed dial.

He's been willing to give up decent talent (and arguably overpay) in return to meet immediate needs for this coming season.

Sophist- Howard hasn't stopped Amaro from signing anyone yet, but it will now this offseason.

Unless he lands Ross, Annibal Sanchez, and Mike Adams...which he won't, that means that Amaro isn't probably doing what he wants to do because he doesn't have the money which is wasted on Howard.

Don't know Braden's current status but I assume he's getting a minor league deal somewhere. Pretty sure he's recovered but he's a risk. Two shoulder surgeries since early 2011. He and Jurjjens fit the profile pretty well. Still prefer Villaneuva although he may be a bigger investment.

Alright- I'll shut up about Howard. I feel that is a big reason that Amaro can't make big moves, but obviously I'm in the minority.

If the Phils have indeed made a three-year offer to Hamilton, I hope it's just the opening salvo. Hamilton will get four or five years from somebody. If the Phils truly want Hamilton, it will have to be for four or five years.

If you think four or five years is fiscal insanity, I have just two words: TV deal.

Ross is a horrible signing especially if it is 3 years. Not a notable upgrade and there is a huge opportunity cost if the Phils sign him.

One move yet this offseason I don't want to see Amaro make.

Even would be more in favor of the Soriano-Brown deal if the Cubs ate all $16M or so and even then that's not a move I want to see Amaro make either.

"The only move it has so far prevented them from making is a move for a better 1B."

How can you possibly know this? You can't.

If we weren't paying that $20M this year, maybe we match the offers for Upton or Pagan. Maybe we wouldn't have needed to trade Pence to get under the luxury cap threshold -- in which case we wouldn't be searching for a corner outfielder right now. Maybe we sign Aramis Ramirez AND Rollins last off-season. There is no way to know. All we know is that they have a finite budget which seems to hew very close to the luxury tax threshold. It stands to reason that, if they had $20M more to spend this year, their roster would look considerably different.

GM Carson - Resigning Hamels ($20.5M) and Lee ($25M) along with Halladay's deal ($20M) are what is the primary reason why this team doesn't quite have the flexibility they might want to have.

That and paying Papelbon $13M this year too. If Howard even rebounds to .800 OPS with 30+ HRs, he won't be the biggest issue on this team.

Sophist actually makes a good point. If they didn't have Howard's contract, they'd have an extra $20-25 M to play with, but they also wouldn't have a first baseman. It seems reasonable to me that they would then either use (or have used last year) that money on a legitimate, premiere first baseman, in which case you'd have a Pujols, A-Gon or Fielder here. So Sophist is probably right on the money. The only thing that Howard's deal is doing to us is ensuring that we don't have a better first baseman.

No argument from me that Howard is not a good allocation of resources. But it's an oversimplification to pin their lack of payroll flexibility this offseason on that contract. The Phils also have $65M allocated in three starting pitchers, which is highly unusual (whether or not that's a good idea is a separate question.) One big reason they're desperate for power is that the uncertainty surrounding the $15M they're investing at 2B. They've traded away several viable SP over the years and seen possible contributors (Aumont, Bastardo, Brown, Gillies) fail (to greater and lesser degrees) to step up.

There are many many reasons the Phils are scrambling a bit to field a balanced team with $25M (or whatever it is). Howard's contract is one part of that picture. But I think they'd be investing *something* in 1B regardless (check and see what they make on the FA market), which means the biggest problem with the contract is the player and not its impact on roster construction. The Phils don't give a damn about Hamilton if they had a power 1B.

For all of the grousing too about large contracts, the one team that if I was a season ticket holder I would be pissed about is the Yanks.

There offseason has consisted of resigning Rivera, Petitte, Kuroda, and Youkilis with a strong interest in Ichiro.

All of this is to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold so that they can get off having to pay the large tax and make an additional $50-$60M this year in net income.

That's a big 'screw you' to theif fans. All from a team that still prints money to their ownership in the YES network and the highest average ticket price for premium seats by a huge margin.

From the last thread: The fact that Jack and Gtown think the Phillies getting Hamilton would be terrible is as predictable as the sunrise tomorrow morning.

Is there any FO move that either of these two would approve?

Jack, to his credit, does think about the game and has knowledge of player skills. Gtown is the board nitwit. But his posts are meant for entertainment purposes only, so he gets a pass.

Apparently the Choo to Reds deal is done.

I could easy argue too that the f@ckup of the first Lee trade has impacted them more than Howard's salary too this year.

If the Phils had a starter, young closer, or a positional player they would have netted from that trade who was ready to start this year, that would have allowed them to direct resources to other areas.

JC Ramirez is a bust and a non-prospect at this point. Gillies finally did something at Reading for the first time in 3 years but it's pretty clear the Phils don't have high regard for him (Revere trade).

Aumont will grab a spot as a reliever this year but I still think he ends up like a Wayne Gomes because of his command issues.

Heyman may have only part of the deal. If it were Brown for Soriano and Jackson, it would make sense with Phils eating Soriano's salary. Cubs, of course, would never do it.

Brown for Soriano straight up is nuts and I doubt Rube is a rube.

If anything I'd say Hamels & Papelbon -- who remains the golden toilet seat in a house w/ no indoor plumbing -- are the main reasons the Phillies don't have as much payroll flexibility as they might like right now. Of course worrying about the luxury tax right now would be ignorant & supremely short-sighted, & I have been assured the Phillies are neither.

"So Sophist is probably right on the money. The only thing that Howard's deal is doing to us is ensuring that we don't have a better first baseman."

I still think that's speculative and, since we're speculating, I'll speculate about a possible scenario too. Howard doesn't sign the $125M contract, but plays out his contract & becomes a FA after the worst season of his career & after suffering a serious injury. A-Gon goes to Boston, Fielder goes to Detroit, Pujols goes to Anaheim, and Howard ends up back on the Phillies but, instead of a 5 year, $125M deal, it's something like a 3-year, $45M deal. That leaves us with a 1st baseman with potential upside, who doesn't have an AAV of $25M per year. And it leaves us with quite a bit of extra money to spend in other areas.

BAP, fair point.

Is there any FO move that either of these two would approve?

I can't speak for Jack, but a change of both General & Field Managers would be nice.

BAP - Every team has a budget and every contract they had out impacts how they can allocate the rest of their resources. So of course Howard's contract has a role. But posts like Carson's overstate its impact. But it's a dumb rabbit hole to go down and pretty irrelevant. No one likes the contract.

Hamels was the Phils main acquisition for this offseason too.

Hamels' 6 yr/$144M deal compares pretty favorably to the deal Greinke got and what a guy like Kershaw will get this year or next offseason.

For once, Amaro did a deal for 'cost certainty' but didn't pay a real market premium in order to get it done.

As usualy- Sophist is correct..(see his 8:33 post)

Sophist: I would take Swisher/Sanchez because Braden is a huge question mark. Also, signing Sanchez would allow you to slot Hamels/Sanchez at 1-2 for a few years and lessen the need,or urge, to resign Halladay when his contract is up.

GM: You can spend 20 million and get those things. Ross may not be loved but he would provide some right handed power. Ideally I want Swisher. Hamilton would be gravy.

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