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Sunday, December 16, 2012

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On your last point, J, I could not agree more. This idea that some people have - that there will be a superstar at every position or the Phillie's "can't" win - is crazy.

That model doesn't even work for the teams that use it (read: Yankees, Red Sox).

Either Dom Brown is a legit prospect and will be able to contribute on a major league club for little dollars, or he fails. You don't trade him for a "proven" 37 year old because you are afraid to find out. That's what the trade deadline is for.

I think RAJ and the gang have done a nice job this offseason.

$8 M for Ross? If we're assuming $4/4.5 M per WAR, that would be a bit of a bargain for him, as you'd be looking for 2 fWAR out of him, and he's been at or over 2 fWAR in 5 of his last 6 seasons. At that price, it'd be easy enough to swallow.

I usually don't comment here but I hate Cody ross so much I just had to. I don't want to see him here. he's a bum

In particular, the trade deadline is made for corner outfielders. They're always available.

I don't see what's so horrible about Cody Ross. Just because he's killed the Phillies doesn't mean he's a bad guy. I do understand what's bad about Nick Swisher, however.

I go Schwimer, Rosenberg and Dugan for soriano. Take it or leave it. If not, next best dirt cheap free agent or wait till next year to sign someone.

Cody Ross is the line of demarcation between reasonable signing who could help move the needle and the increasingly common veteran signing who you're dying to dump into the second month of his contract. I could go either way on him.

There you go, JW, being the voice of reason once again. I've been wanting to say something very much like what you just said, but didn't take the time to think about exactly how to put it.

When in doubt, JW, put your wallet back in your pocket and wait for a better option.

Yeah, that was a very concise summary of the Ross situation by J. Weitzel. Perhaps he should contact the CEO of BL to see if he can get quoted in the next header.

If it is between the choice of signing Ross or starting the season with corner OF's of Mayberry/Ruf/Nix/Brown I prefer the latter. If you need to replace one you can make a trade mid-season.
I don't know what will be available but I feel it will be better then 3 years of Ross.

If we sign Ross, is Nix going to keep Ruf off the roster?

That's assuming our outfield picture is Revere, Ross, Brown, Mayberry, and Nix.

Cody Ross in Phl for 3 yrs is at least 1 yr too long.. I would like to see how Ruff/ et al do in LF... I would rather save the $$ for a pitcher in case lannan doesn't work out...

Anyone w. thoughts on RADickey for D'Arnaud ?
-- I really don't understand why the BJ"s would trade their BEST prospects for a 38 yr old knuckleballer ---------
-- In 20/20 hind site -- I guess it would been better if the Phil's kept
D'Arnaud instead of Brown when the Halliday trade was being completed, but d'Arnaud is not a lead pipe cinch to be another Johnny Bench... - is he?

why is Bastardo even pitching in winterball? he got plenty of innings this season

I'll take Ross at 8 mil a year for three years. He's a proven vet. You know what you are getting. I just don't trust the young guys, too many question marks, especially if you are trying for one last shot at going deep into the postseason (and maybe a W.S.) with this core group of aging players.

Dragon, as far as "trying for one last shot" is concerned, many teams have by signing and overpaying for talent and they wound up playing golf and watching the WS on TV.

Ross is a solid player, but IMHO won't make the difference between this team making the postseason crapshoot or not.

awh, that's where you and I differ. I think a "solid player" like Ross might make a difference between this team making the postseason crapshoot or not, and I don't even like Ross(see 2010 NLC playoff series). Thing is, you can play the waiting game with young talent if you are a last place team, but if you are a team that is aging and has one, maybe two years at most with it's core group, then you have to go with a veteran now! Like it or not, you just have to.

I know Scott Hairston has some shortcomings and he's had some bad years and he's not that full time OF fans are clamoring for but I'd still consider him if the deal is shorter and a little less than Ross.

Hits some NL teams pretty well and had a lot of HRs last year per AB (granted some were against us).

Like others I'd like Ross more on a two year deal but he's probably going to do pretty well in this market.

Ross is probably a little more credible than Hairston since he slammed lefthanders last year but Hairston has some power also which is really what you look for.

Waiting until the trade deadline is an option but you also have to give up something and sometimes it's a lot. Plus we've already depleted the farm and we need to get younger. So it might actually be better to get someone now.

Anyone who says they don't want Ross because he killed the Phillies in '10 is just plain idiotic. So are the ones who hate the look on his face.

All anyone should care about if they are true Phillies fans is how he does in the field and at the plate.

A true sports fan embraces the enemy as his/her own once that player crosses the line into friendly territory.

Fata - Question for you:

Has anybody compared the actual records of teams over the last 10-20 years with the teams' theoretical records as determined by the WARs of players on teams' rosters over the same 10-20 years?

Fata - Follow-up question:

Looking at the last 10-20 years, which method has a closer correlation to actual team wins, the WARs of players on team rosters or the Pythagorean method?

I know Scott Hairston has some shortcomings and he's had some bad years and he's not that full time OF fans are clamoring for but I'd still consider him if the deal is shorter and a little less than Ross.

___________________________________________

No thank you!

Im just not that high on Ross. He seems to me a average player with a just tad above average power. "and the increasingly common veteran signing who you're dying to dump into the second month of his contract."..........This is exactly is what im afraid of...

I don't take much issue with this offseason so far other than the Revere deal. I think they could have done much better in centerfield given the candidates they had to choose from and the potential guys available via trade. I also don't want Ross. I have wanted Swisher since day one and still don't get why they aren't tied to him at all in any of the talks. He is the perfect piece for the middle of the order. He brings an approach the offense hasn't seen since Werth.

Bastardo is in winter ball searching for the strike zone. If he finds it, he is instructed to bring it north with him in two months...

I am not in love with Ross, but I like the idea of picking him up now rather than paying out the nose in prospects for a slugger in July. If Brown or Ruf play so well they end up making him irrelevant, then you have the pleasant problem if deciding to hold onto him as a veteran bench bat to run out against tough lefties late in the season. Or you dump him. The trick will be getting him on a contract that someone would actually be able to stomach, which doesn't seem that likely the way money is flying around this winter. I say offer him two years with an option and buyout and if he can get more than that move on to the cheaper options.

RSB--what do you know about Swisher that makes you dislike him so much?

derek, I have not done either of those studies, nor have I seen them done, except in a cursory manner. I'm sure they're out there.

Ross is a league average OF, and $8 M is about the going rate for a league average player. I get that Ross may not be a star and a sexy signing, but assuming you're going to get league average production out of a platoon of Mayberry and Nix, for example, is a pretty big assumption. You're pretty much guaranteed it, with some upside from Ross.

I'm not a huge fan of signing him, but I won't vilify the FO if they do. They probably simply don't have the money now to go after Swisher, and Ross, at $8 M/year would be a decent enough value signing.

If the Phils aren't going after Swisher (not saying whether they should or should not, here), then I'd roll the dice with what we have currently. Ross or Hairston should not be in the Phils' plans for 2013.

No way. No how.

Roman Quinn - No. 2 Phillies prospect, according to BA.

***If we're assuming $4/4.5 M per WAR, that would be a bit of a bargain for him, as you'd be looking for 2 fWAR out of him, and he's been at or over 2 fWAR in 5 of his last 6 seasons. At that price, it'd be easy enough to swallow.***

Just dont look at his bWAR numbers then...

bWAR
2010: 1.6
2011: -0.1
2012: 1.6

BTW, a WAR of 2 or above is considered the cutoff for an everyday player. 1-2 is a fill-in/platoon type guy.

On Quinn: If he can stick at SS, that's a good ranking...if he has to move to CF, not so much.

I do like that BA has Roy Halladay in our 2016 rotation and Chase Utley as our 2016 2B.

Must not like the prospects behind them much at all.

It's not a bad top 10. What's probably missing is that 1 or2 elite guys. If' Biddle was #2 or #3 on the list, it wouldn't be so bad. Should be a fair number of contributors, don't know about stars though.

Now that Cody Asche has made the list (#7) does that mean Clout will acknowledge that he is an actual prospect?

Also interesting that Larry Greene and Valle are missing from the list.

On d'Arnaud for Dickey...power to the Mets for getting a ridiculous return for a 38 year old knuckleballer.

Didn't BA once rank Dom Brown the top prospect in all of MLB?

GTown - Yeah, he was ranked number one briefly, but to be fair to BA, a handful of prospects who had been ahead of him were called up and he was still in the minors. So, he was kind of number 1 by default.

At this point, I'd rather see them hold onto the money and make a mid-season trade. That would allow them to see what they really have with the young guys, and know what needs/ positions are really most pressing.

If Halladay, Howard, and Utley are all healthy and productive through the first half of the season, then this team will be in playoff contention, regardless of whether they sign Ross or Swisher or nobody. And now the Phils will have enough cash available to make a big mid-season move (for some non-contender's salary dump).

If those guys don't return to form/ stay healthy, Cody Ross or Nick Swisher weren't going to carry the team anyway.

So I'll actually be glad if Rube is done dealing until mid-season.

I am in agreement with the wait and see method to the corner OF at this point. Just too many unknowns to be 'stuck' with Ross at $8M per.

Brown should be everyday RF from Day1. I think estimating a NixBerry LF near league average is reasonable. Nix at .250/.300/.450 vs RH and Mayberry at .270/.310/.490 vs LH should be okay. Ruf is a wildcard.

Leave that last bench spot up for grabs between Ruf and whatever Spring Training invitees (like Pierre last year) can be had. May not even need to be an OF as Gillies, Castro, and James may be callup options due to injury.

I'm fine with what we have right now if Adams clears the physical haven't heard,a for sure on that deal yet, if it was posted I missed it. It's time for JMJ and DB to rise up or go away. And hey I like both guys and really want them to go to that next level With all the other kids that haven gotten some playing time at the MLB level(2012)along with the kids in the minors that everyone is talking about the Phils are going in the right direction for several years.If JMJ and DB can't get there then there is the trade

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