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Saturday, December 15, 2012

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If it is true...outstanding.

Now get Marcum.

I'm all in. He's a horse, of course. Special thanks to the Adams Family for highlighting my baseball week.

This is the move I've been screaming about! If Bastardo can get consistent and assume the JC Romero 2008 role they just solved a major problem from last year.

Another great thing is Adams slots everyone back in a comfortable position. I feel a lot better about Aumont, Stutes, De Fratus and all the other young arms in the 6th/7th innings than being the 8th inning bridge to Paps. Tremendous move if Adams is healthy.

Ruben is a genius. Bastardo & Horst - Aumont and whomever for the bullpen and a triple option of FA, young hope platoon or Big Buster trade for the outfield.

and all this great news while everone is asleep.

Pretty thin evidence so far. Great news if it turns out to be true.

'everyone' that is.

Is this real? If so, I'm ecstatic.

Tim Brown just tweeted it. 2 years, vesting option for 3rd.

This might be a universally liked move on Beerleaguer. I'll give it my endorsement.

Tim Brown was fast. This veteran tandem of Adams and Paps is exactly what De Fratus and Aumont need for their progress.

Hopefully its not $18m for 2 years.

It's only money and it's Friday night!

Awesome

Makes sense this club as constructed probably wont score a bunch of runs. They will need to hold on to them 1 run leads..

I like the report of two years with an option better than 3 years.

Either way, and I'm sure the usual suspects will have problems with this, but Adams has been otherworldly for almost five seasons now. He doesn't give up home runs- he handles late-inning situations well- and is basically, with the exception of maybe Uehara, the best reliever on the market (better than a lot of closers, honestly).

Great signing and a big boost to the bullpen, if true. Now the young guys can fight it out in the 6th/7th innings. An ideal situation, really.

BTW- and I think this is fair to speculate- how many more games would the 2012 team won if they had Adams pitching the 8th instead of the parade of failures they ran out there week after week? It's probably a decent number.

Good PC. Now we will see gose and Travis a lot when dick gets traded.

This is probably a good signing, but just to throw some obligatory cold water on it...there are a few fairly important numbers not mentioned about Adams.

Age: 34
2012 K/9: 7.7
2012 K/BB: 2.65 (5.29 in 2011)
2012 xFIP: 3.95 (2.87 in 2011)

Adams being a reliever, the SSS caveat should be tacked on as a given. His 2012 BABIP was 3.27 (career .260) so you could easily chalk the above up to flukiness and overreading of a trend. Nonetheless, this is a guy whose peripherals are cause for some moderate concern, particularly with regard to the later end of the deal.

Fortunately at 3/18, you aren't looking at a debilitating commitment either way, and he should provide appreciable value. And of course he's 4 years younger than Uehara anyway. All in all a commendable signing, if true.

Was there a single move this offseason that was going to improve the club in more ways than adding a stabilizing force in the eighth inning? Adams turns the last two innings into a strength and pushes a group of talented, but inexperienced, relievers into lower-leverage roles. Think about how much better this makes Bastardo, or Aumont, or Diekman or De Fratus.

Thanks for helping break the news, great to hear. As has been stated, his numbers took a bit of a dip last year, but I wonder how much, if any, of that was due to pitching through the thoracic outlet syndrome.

Also, 3 years, 18 mil for Adams is a decent price for Adams, considering the deals League and Affeldt,two worse reliever, received this off season.

So lets spend 6mil on a setup guy. And 7.5mil total on 3b, LF,CF,RF. When will this club value offense as much as pitching. Eventually you need to add that big bat. You cant win if you dont score.

Really like to hear one of these blog sites put together a definitive article about exactly where the payroll stands after this signing happens if this signing goes down including a projection for the final roster.

This will be a good signing if Adams surgery helps him return to form. He struggled in May and September. Considering how many right handed set up relievers were out there, you have to overpay for Adams.

Wonder if Phillies now trade for an OF with part of the package being a reliever or two. We are overloaded with 27ish year old relievers.

If you have Papelbon, Adams, Horst, Bastardo, Aumont, Stutes that leaves 1 spot at most (long reliever/swing starter?). De Fratus might figure in a battle with Stutes.

You then have lefties Valdes, Robles, Savery, Diekman and still have righties Rosenberg and Schwimer. Granted some of these guys are marginal but you can't hang onto 27 year old relievers forever.

De Fratus and Aumont are young relative to the others. Rosenberg had a high ERA but actually had many good appearances in September.

Who has some actual value as a piece in a trade? I think De Fratus probably does and I wouldn't give up Aumont unless it was a young OF and that would have to be the right deal.

People they aren't going to trade for another bat. They don't have anything to trade. Lets hope our platoons work out and ruf and Dom really hold it together. Maybe Ross might be that PC. Plenty of cash for trades in July. Really comes down to Howard chase and Roy. They they aren't healthy then doesn't matter who they get.

Has anyone seen this confirmed yet? All I am aware of is a TV report in Texas that spoke with a member of Adams' family. Not saying it isn't true but haven't seen anything late last night or this morning yet. Usually Twitter has something.

Twitter has it too. Passan and Tim Brown both tweeted it.

Iceman: 2 with a vesting 3rd is still a guaranteed 3 years. Just ask MG.


Great move by Amaro. I know people will complain about the offense still but the pitching is what hurt us last year

Platoons SUCK. This offense wasnt good enough in 2010 or 2011. Why do people think its good enough now. The Bank is a homerun hitting ball park and the Phils have 1 legit homerun hitting player. Makes NO sense.

Solid move. Makes the team better.

I don't buy the "single most important thing they could do was get a veteran 8th inning guy," stuff, but it certainly doesn't hurt.

What on earth is Texas doing this offseason?

Getting Adams for 3 years, 18 million? Very good deal. And he's good enough to close for a bit if anything happens to Papelbon. This instantly turns the bullpen from a weakness to a strength.

It does preclude signing Swisher, though. The Phillies have about $20 million to spend before getting Adams in this deal. If it is for 6 million, then they've got 14 million left for an outfielder AND a 5th starter. Swisher is too expensive for that. He's not gonna be 12 million. He made 12 million with the Yankees in 2012 and he's gonna get a pay raise.

Kinda leaves Ross as the only guy they can afford.

Great move to address a key weakness of last season.

Non sequitur: One of the top search terms this week: "bay_area_phan laynce nix worst signing"

2 years, $12M, with a third year vesting option? There's little reason to complain. He was probably the best fit on the free agent market and the deal is relatively short and reasonable.

Sure, there are question marks, there always are, but Adams is a much better 8th inning option than anyone we have right now.

Eric, yeah, you're right.

The offense was only good enough in 2011 to win 102 games.

And, in 2012, the offense was league average even though they missed Howard and Utley for more than half the season.

Ignore what JW and others have posted above though. And ignore the fact that the Phillies bullpen baked the poodle, in the 8th inning alone, 8 times last year.

Pretty safe move even with Adams 2012 being less than stellar. Interesting to see how the remaining resources are spent, a good $15m still in play I believe.

As I said at the top, I would like to see them pick up Marcum...which would solidify pitching as our strength. We sould still have enough money after that to sign a Ross or Hairston...and then see if Ruf and/or Brown can step up.

As has been said frequently around here, unless Halladay, Utley and Howard reestablish themselves, this team will probably have a tough time winning 88-90 games...so I would rather take our shot beefing up our pitching as much as possible.

Pending a physical... as we saw with Lopez, that's not necessarily a slam dunk. Assuming it goes through, it's a very solid move. Kudos to RAJ.

Marcum's going to cost big bucks. He's every bit as good as Anibal Sanchez, who just got 5 years/$80M, though not as durable. My guess is RAJ won't go beyond 3 guaranteed years on Marcum (with a vesting option like Doc and Adams got), so it will depend on how the market shakes out. Fingers crossed.

I like it. A bit of a gamble on health, but no more so than w/ any other member of the team at this point. And the bullpen needed another veteran to give the young arms some breathing room.

Of course I doubt this means much overall unless a decent OF bat is acquired, but in & of itself, I like the signing. Good job, r00b. Now tell Monty to stop being a cheapsh*t, & go after Swisher.

Love the signing.

Unrelated note: Not sure if this has been mentioned, but it looks like the Mets are going to trade Dickey for D'Arnaud and Gose.

It's a fine move, but I don't think it guarantees anything, even that the bullpen will be a lot better.

How can you all be so sure that Adams will be good? Have you looked at his declining K rate and declining velocity and the fact that he's coming off surgery?

I don't get this "well, now the 8th inning is solved." The 8th inning is only solved if Adams is healthy and very good. How can all of you be so sure that he will be, knowing what we know about him and about reliever performance being so random?

    ...And, in 2012, the offense was league average even though they missed Howard and Utley for more than half the season.

    Ignore what JW and others have posted above though. And ignore the fact that the Phillies bullpen baked the poodle, in the 8th inning alone, 8 times last year.

    Posted by: awh: Founder, JRoll in the 6-hole Club | Saturday, December 15, 2012 at 09:33 AM

Reasonable, awh. And more semi-empirical documentation NO heroic measures need to be undertaken to "land" Cody Ross. Let him do that creepy leprechaun hop somewhere else.

As a semi-related aside, what would JMJ become if plopped firmly into the starting LF position? At what point were the Phils convinced Werth was an everyday guy?

With no anxiety whatsoever about getting "yanked", "benched" or "warehoused" at Chollies' whim. I still have a hunch that 500+ PA's for JMJ would get us somewhere around .285/.325/.485; 29 HRs and solid defense to boot. In a sense, Cody freakin’ Ross at no extra cost.

P.S. Cole Hamels: If (hopefully!!) Ross does not show up here and stays in the NL, plunk 'em. Just because.

Adams was right under their noses this whole time and I'm glad the Phils didn't overlook an obvious answer. Of all the contending teams, Phils needed Adams most.

Make that RF for JMJ. I want LF open for Ruf's taking.

I still want JMJ to be given a shot as an everyday player. He's so go88amm "toolsy" Layered in with the confidence he's an everyday player, I think good things would happen.

And now, we've apparently signed Lannan. I guess this is an example of "Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer."

WIP reports Phils got Lannen... yikes

Jim Salisbury is saying John Lannan also agreed to terms with the Phils

Lannan was the ace of a terrible Nationals team he can be a decent 5th starter right?

Decent signing. Not really much to complain about, but you now have $18 M going to two relief pitchers. And I wonder if Adams is still an elite relief pitcher.

Declining K% since 2008 and increasing FIP since 2009. Still going to be a good pitcher, and probably better than the rest of our bullpen other than Paps. He'll probably have a nice year, but I'm not super stoked for him to catapult this team into the playoffs.

This type of move, along with the all defense OF, and the trading of Worley really signals to me that they are banking on Halladay returning to form and Lee still having an elite season. If that happens, Adams will have been a great move. If not, Adams will have less of an effect, and the lack of offense will come back to bite them.

So, even as before, Halladay's health this year is of paramount importance.

Still wished we would've stuck one in Lannan's ear while there was the chance.

ColonelTom: hard to imagine Marcum gets anywhere near $16m AAV...maybe sometehing like 3/35 guaranteed with a 4th year vest...leaving something like $4-5m for Ross or Hairston.

Lannan's deal has to be a split deal, right? No way they gave him a major league contract.

If Lannan is the only starter they sign, then it's not a particularly strong series of moves.

I would've rather had a better starter than Adams/Lannan.

I wonder if Utley is allowed to deck him once in the face to let bygones be bygones.

Well, I did call the Lannan signing. He's been a league average pitcher his whole career, but he's not a guy who's going to give you lots of inning. Has averaged 5.85 IP/GS in his career. He'll be an adequate 5th starter, but just like I just said, more evidence that they're putting a lot of faith in Halladay rebounding.

Let's hope they're right.

Sure as heck hope the ’13 KK keeps his bulldog mentality; moves forward, gains confidence and doesn't collapse in true Kendrickian fashion. He's officially climbed out of the 5th-starters spot. For now.

Lannan's signing ensures that Utley will be on the DL one fewer time in 2013. Good move.

noname:

Anibal Sanchez, career 110 ERA+, 6 years, $80 M

John Lannan, career 103 ERA+, split deal/minor league contract????

If you are going to downgrade from Worley to Lannan in the rotation,I was hoping that would mean a big jump in the lineup. The offseason isn't over yet but so far I am still unsatisfied. Maybe RAJ still has the ace of spades up his sleeve?

Not a split deal. $2.5 mil guaranteed. hahahah

I have to applaud Jack for sticking to his guns on this 'bullpens are random' thing in an attempt to paint the signing as something with little meaning- then turning around and grouping it with the Lannan signing so he can slam it and say he didn't want it. Almost and MGian-like command of the facts to fit his narrative.

Now they've got their money for Swisher, hopefully.

Fat: He pitched the majority of last year in AAA. I dunno. That usually wreaks of a split deal to me.

Lannan's deal is supposedly 1 year, $2.5M. Excellent signing at that price.

Iceman, they've got the money for Ross, maybe. Not Swisher.

Swisher at $16 + Adams at $6 + Lannan at $2.5 is $24.5. I didn't know they had that much to spend.

Fat: I don't even think they have enough money to sign Ross at this point and stay under the lux tax. They will be right up against it with no wiggle room for anything in season.

Iceman: I agree I would love to add Swisher but not sure if he is worth the 16th pick. But on the other hand this team is built to win right now, so they might as well go all in. Adams and Papelbon at the back of the bullpen really sets up nice. Just hoping they can find that power bat somewhere.

Jon Heyman says Lannan gets $2.5M guaranteed + up to $2.5M in incentives.

noname, he pitcher at AAA because the Nats were too dumb to trade him. They had Strasburg, Zimmerman, Detwiler, Gonzalez and Jackson in the rotation. They had no room for Lannan.

Also, in 2011, Lannan made 33 starts with a 103 ERA+.

I'm not trying to argue he's a great pitcher, but $2.5 M to basically replicate what KK gave them last year. A pretty good signing if you ask me.

NOTE: Grienke's ERA+ from 2010-2012 was 106.

So again, pretty good signing.

Fata- perhaps I am the last one that believes this, but I believe they'd be willing to surpass the luxury tax to start the season and- as they showed last year- dump salary if it appears they'll be doing it for a losing team. Utley comes to mind, as does Halladay. There are a few candidates.

Anyway, I think you're right on point about banking on Halladay's health- you almost have to bank on it at least a little bit. Because if he isn't healthy, chances are none of these moves or potential moves being discussed are going to matter anyway. Too much hinges on one thing that money can't fix.

Iceman, I'd love for them to grab Swisher now. This team with Swisher in the fold might once again be the arguable favorites to win the division.

As it stands now, they're still a good few ticks below the Nationals.

Iceman: Adams had a lower K rate against righties (he's a right-handed pitcher, remember) than FOUR of our lefty relievers (Bastardo, Horst, Valdes, Diekman).

If Adams is healthy and reverses his decline in K rate and velocity, he's a good pitcher to add, for sure. I agree on that.

What I don't understand is the idea that this is a sure thing, or guaranteed upgrade. In fact, it's hard for me to imagine less of a sure thing than a mid-30s relief pitcher with declining stats.

Hope it works out, but the money is better invested in a good starting pitcher or a guy like Swisher. Those guys are much safer bets to be actual meaningful upgrades.

John Lannan......imagine.........

And Fata is also right on Lannan. Basically a league-average starter with the potential to be a little better, a little worse. He's also pitching with something to prove, and it always helps to get someone with that incentive.

Nothing wrong with it at all- certainly better than just rolling with Cloyd.

On the other hand, I hate watching Lannan pitch. His delivery, much like Kendrick's, is just painful to watch. Regardless of their numbers, they just don't have aesthetically pleasing deliveries.

Thank goodness I can still watch Lee, Hamels and Doc pitch.

Great value signing. If we get the 08-09 Lannan, we get a guy who basically is a Joe Blanton clone (1.35ish WHIP who should give you 180-200 innings). Exchanging one 6 inning pitcher for another...and with Adams, should have more guys to cover the 7th inning for both Lannan and KK.

Would love to see them go after Swisher now. I thought that at least part of the thinking behind the trades this summer was to not be a tax payer last year, so we could go over by a smidge this year and pay the lower rate in 2013...

We'll see.

Thank goodness. An 8th inning guy can be a difference-maker for the team.

On Lannan, meh. I did think, well at least he can't hit Chase now. I'd rather have Worley, but I get that trade. Just reserving judgment on it 'til I see how it pans out.

I do like that if we're getting a "meh" pitcher, we aren't spending a lot on him.

Lannan. Ugh. Only the Phillies would go out & sign a guy they've beaten like a drum throughout his career.

I still have a hunch that 500+ PA's for JMJ would get us somewhere around .285/.325/.485; 29 HRs and solid defense to boot.

This is me at this same time last year. But after '12 I'm under no delusions about Mayberry: he is NEVER going to put up that kind of season.

So this leaves the Phils with about $12 million for an outfielder. Forget about Swisher. He's going to get 4-5 years, $15 million per from a desperate team.

Maybe kick the tires on Michael Bourn again? He might be getting desperate. Then go with a speed/defense team and hope Brown/Mayberry/Ruf can give you 30 homers in the other corner outfield spot. At least the OF defense with Bourn and Revere can be spectacular. The success of this team would be 100% dependent on Howard and Utley going back to old form, but I guess that's the case anyway.

I seem to remember that, when Lannan pitched for the Nats before being demoted, BAP went on some tirade at one point about how he symbolizes everything that disgusts him for the mere fact that he's so mind-blowingly average, or something like that. Would like confirmation on that. Pretty sure BAP will be heading to the edge of the Golden Gate after hearing about this.

"I still have a hunch that 500+ PA's for JMJ would get us somewhere around .285/.325/.485; 29 HRs and solid defense to boot."

1500+ PA at AAA hitting .263/.322/.445. Almost 850 MLB PA .254/.313/.448 mostly against LHP.

It's not happening. If he gets 500 PA he'll face a lot of righties and he'll struggle. Look at last year. Almost 500 PA and his OPS was under .700.

Also, RAJ was lying when he said he was looking for a "low-risk, high reward" starting pitcher.

They were just looking for a low-risk starting pitcher. Because Lannan certainly isn't a "high-reward" pitcher.

Lannon threw a lot more innings over the years than I thought. Averaged 180 IP a year from 2008-2011 before being bumped from the rotation by Detweiler. I'll take that out of a 5th starter for $2.5M - another pretty 'safe' signing, as Lannan doesn't really have any upside at all other than what he's shown.

It's all well & good to say Lannan is an acceptable 5th starter until one remembers the Phillies already have a 5th starter.

Matt Swartz: "If Phillis sign Cody Ross for $10MM, that puts them right against the luxury tax & rounds out the offseason. Basically a 86-87 win team."

This is exactly what I fear. Signing Ross would leave the Phillies w/ a lesser overall OF than they had before Vic & Pence were traded. Incur the damn tax, or sit at home in October.

New thread.

Sophist -- Sorry to clog up the board with JMJ re-hashes. Regardless, Werth was a late bloomer -- was his genesis into an everyday player catalyzed by Chollie's anointing him as an "everyday player"? Doesn't JMJ deserve that chance in RF? Would not the confidence that a couple of 0fers against RHP will not nail his butt right back onto the pine do wonders for him?

How do you get to Carnegie Hall? Practice, practice, practice. It really seemed JMJ was pressing last year, as if every AB was his last (for all practical purposes, it could have been!). In the midst of one of his funks, it was infuriating to see his chin fly towards the LF stands as he pulled off pitches. Regardless, that is curable – I was able to break that habit with my golf swing, and no one confuses me with a ML baseball player, let alone an “athlete”.

I really believe there's hope for JMJ to bring up his numbers against righties if he knows he has a consistent shot to get it done. Again, the beauty of JMJ is he's cost controlled for a bit of time, anyway and letting him start for a season does not make the Phils automatically older.

(/JMJ soapbox chopped to bits and burned for kindling)

So we go into a year with a new yet old setup man with declining peripherals, an ancient 3rd baseman with no power and seriously declining production, right side of the infield that remains a question mark and still no set answers in the corner outfield spots. Cue Yogi Berra....

Sure hope Utley is actually ready this time.

"One of the top search terms this week: "bay_area_phan laynce nix worst signing""

This one soared right past me. Still trying to figure out what it means.

John Lannan for under 3 million is an excellent, excellent signing. The man's a league average starter with an ERA+ that always hovers around 100, and that was on some pretty terrible Nationals teams. WHIP's a little high and his K/BB ratio isn't good, but we're not talking about a middle of the rotation starter here. We're talking about our #4/5.

He's a groundball pitcher, average stuff, decent fastball but he's got some control issues (walks 3-4 guys per game). But he's also a horse, and when healthy will give you 6-7 innings every time he takes the mound.

Strikes me as a lefthanded Joe Blanton for half the price.

Good deal at a cheap price for Adams. Probably a deal with a bigger positive impact than than the Revere trade.

Good signing, but unless RAJ was blowing smoke, this signing doesn't strike me as a "high risk, high reward" type of guy at all. He is what he is. Maybe Roob turns around and flips Kendrick as part of a pacakge for an OF or to free up space for Swisher or Bourn, because if Cody Ross is the last piece of this, I'm going to be PO'd. But love the Adams signing.

An interesting tidbit I just crunched about John Lannan:

Career slash line against the Phillies: .313/.396/.503
Career slash line against everyone else:
.266/.333/.395
The difference between the two lines is: .047/.063/.108

And now for the funny part...
The difference between career slash lines of David Wright and David Bell: .044/.061/.110

I'm not drawing any conclusions here, this is for entertainment purposes only. ;)

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