40 homers for Howard? A Beerleaguer can dream

The reports of Ryan Howard's death have been greatly exaggerated.

Beerleaguer: We're long overdue for a red-hot Howard thread, but there haven't been any good ways to frame it. Last week we learned from CSNPhilly.com that he's been working out, even during his honeymoon. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. suggested he may not be exactly 100 percent for the start of spring training, but is "getting closer."

Beerleaguer's fickle comments thread doesn't encourage wishful thinking, particularly when it comes to Howard. It started, as it usually does, the moment he signed his extension. And since his Achilles, readers have been quick to write off a 33-year-old, gifted slugger, one who muscled out 14 long balls and 56 RBIs in 71 gimpy games, one who should be physically ready to go in April, one who, theoretically, has some catching up to do.

Most readers would be shocked if he made another All-Star team. Pessimism and the universal hatred of Michael Martinez. These are the ties that bind us.

Whether you agree with the process or not, we're talking about a guy who either won Rookie of the Year or finished in the top 10 in MVP voting in all seven of the seasons in which he was playing on both legs.

Back to the question, is 40 possible? The last time it happened was 2009 when he hit 45 and was surrounded by a killer lineup in its prime. And if one were to identify the biggest non-physical reason for Howard's steady decline, it might be the removal of Jayson Werth's composite 63 homers and 72 doubles between '09-10 and the hodgepodge they've shoved into the five hole ever since.

For Howard to hit 40 again, he may need to be better than he's ever been. Whether it's a product of overexposure, or the lack complimentary parts, or both, pitchers have learned to isolate and extinguish him by rarely throwing anything true. Unless Darin Ruf becomes Pat Burrell, or the Phils have another trick up their sleeves this winter, it's going to be an uphill battle for Howard to get his pitch.

Still, a Beerleaguer can dream, right? You don't get to 300 homers and 920 RBIs in nine seasons by accident.

Or, as Beerleaguer and the greater blogosphere often puts it, Howard totally hit 300 homers and 920 RBIs by accident.

Comments

[Jack]

Clout: Revere is just about the perfect player for the pitcher 8th/hitter 9th strategy. His skillset is such that he is valuable to have on base in front of good hitters, but he's not good enough overall to justify giving the most at-bats too.

Of course, Charlie won't do it. But it makes complete sense.

[donc]

awh: Interestingly enough Chase Utley has the highest career stolen base percentage in history, so you are spot on about his efficiency. Almost unbelievably, Rollins is number 19 on the list. Its an interesting list too, populated with almost all active and recently retired players.

[aksmith]

I don't see Ruf being platooned. Either he is started out as the everyday rightfelder, or he goes to AAA to start the year.

Of course, having played Winter ball, I think he's likely to have a good ST and win the job outright.

As much as people think Charlie is a dope, I don't really think he is. He would rather give Ruf a shot in left than run Mayberry/Nix out there if at all possible. He knows what he's going to get from Nixberry. And I'm pretty sure he won't like it.

And of course, that means those people penciling Brown in for left field will actually find him starting in right.

I see Mayberry as a true fourth outfielder on this team. He'll spell all three guys, but mainly Revere and Brown. And Nix will be a lefty off the bench, and will be put in left late in games with a lead for defensive purposes, as he's a defensive upgrade from Ruf.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Ryan Howard's problem pitch is the changeup. Apart from 2009, the Fangraph's "pitch value" vs. Howard has not been higher than 0.8 and it has been negative in 5 of 8 seasons.

There's been talk about his issues against the slider, but he's been positive in 3 of the last 4 seasons vs. the slider, with a 16.4 in 2009. Of course, that doesn't break down how he performs against sliders from LHP.

[aksmith]

Oops, I meant Ruf as the everyday leftfielder. Yikes.

[MG]

awh - Howard was a league average hitter with 2 strikes who had a slightly lower average but above average power numbers through '10. The last two years though, he has struggled more than the MLB average (which includes pitchers too) though.

Howard splits vs MLB average (2 strike counts)

2007: .147/.228/.364 (.592 OPS) vs. .556
2008: .142/.233/.313 (.546 OPS) vs. .549
2009: .160/.256/.307 (.563 OPS) vs. .541
2010: .172/.248/.308 (.557 OPS) vs. .526
2011: .150/.230/.238 (.468 OPS) vs. .519
2012: .139/.185/.295 (.481 OPS) vs. .517

Here are the numbers for when the pitcher is ahead. Howard was unbelievably good in '07 but has been league average/better every year except '08.

Howard splits vs MLB average splits

2007: .213/.221/.479 (.700 OPS) vs. .548
2008: .165/.165/.364 (.528 OPS) vs. .539
2009: .194/.208/.356 (.563 OPS) vs. .526
2010: .182/.205/.312 (.516 OPS) vs. .517
2011: .178/.201/.337 (.539 OPS) vs. .517
2012: .178/.181/.333 (.514 OPS) vs. .514

I would love to see what pitchers Howard saw vs MLB average in those 2 circumstances especially the last 2 years.

[awh]

Iceman, if one just goes by OBP and SLG, Ryan Howard is actually BETTER in a 2-strike count than the average MLB hitter.

Still "horrendous", but better than average.

[Sil Campusano]

Yo, new thread.

[Ralph]

Ruf needs to start vs LH & RH until he proves he can't hit the RH. Platoons work when each player in the platoon can stay ready as typically the LH gets more ABs. IF Chollie goes with a platoon, Ruf needs to go to Allentown and play every day.

[Philamania]

Spring Training should be enough for a player of Ruf's caliber. The fact that he's a big right handed bat combined with Ruiz's 25 game ban and the Phillies' desperate need for corner outfield production should force Ruf into the lineup, most likely in the 6 hole. I have Revere, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Young, Ruf, Ruiz/Kratz, Brown, Pitcher as a tentative lineup depending on how Michael Young does in spring training.

[Harold Prickett jr]

like this lineup,for the first 50 games and why
Reverse>>speed on the bases
Rollins>>more speed,should cut down, on dp's
Utley>> also, good base runner
Howard if he can learn to hit the breaking ball, should put up some good power numbers ???
Young>>good bat control
Ruf >>will put up some power numbers too
Kratz>>has some power>
Mayberry,Brown ??? both can look good one day and not so good the next??????????

[Harold Prickett jr]

I see some would like the phillies to send Ruf back to the minors.
Here's a few teams that played some rookies last year.

Trout b. avg was 326
Cespedes b.avg was 292 with 23 home runs
Harper b.avg was 270 with 22 home runs
Frazier b.avg was 273 with 19 home runs
to name a few>>>
Ruf,came up and played 12 games b.avg was 333 and power numbers was 3 home-runs 2-doubles 1-triple
I believe the phillie's should give Ruf a chance to shine or fail. Look how many chances they gave D.Brown,and in my opinion has not shine in his play or hitting ??????

[davy]

Howard hit 40 dingers next season? I won't hold my breath.

[fastpuppy]

Hey did any one see Howard in the subway commerical? Lookin pretty good unless it was a photo from the past?

[DARK STAR]

Howard will never be 100% again he's too old for that. Gross would make suggestions Howard would agree and go out and make the same old mistakes.