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Friday, November 30, 2012


I haven't heard this name at all but he's a def. buy low candidate & most likely wouldn't cost much in return.

2010 299/346/400
2011 266/349/362
2012 243/315/348 (injury plagued)

Descent speed, doesn't strike out much at all, & still just 25

He's name Jose Tabata who it seems the Pirates don't really have a full time spot for. Marte LF McCutch CF Snider RF

2013 24 Pittsburgh Pirates $1,000,000
2014 25 Pittsburgh Pirates $3,000,000
2015 26 Pittsburgh Pirates $4,000,000
2016 27 Pittsburgh Pirates $4,500,000
2017 28 Pittsburgh Pirates *$6,500,000 $6.5M Team Option, $250k Buyout
2018 29 Pittsburgh Pirates *$7,500,000 $7.5M Team Option, $250k Buyout
2019 30 Pittsburgh Pirates *$8,500,000 $8.5M Team Option, $250k Buyout

Worse case we spend 12.75 for him over the next 4 years and we only get back up OF production. I think he could handle CF in our small park plus I think he was only moved to a corner because McCucth is so good. He's played his fair share of CF in the minors.

His, whoops

Repost from last thread:

So, 4 year deal offered to Pagan. I'm wondering if Ruben is planning on offering Hamilton a 5 year deal or so for RF and having Dom/Ruf platoon in LF, with Mayberry and Nix as 4th Outfielder bench guys.

I actually think that'd be a pretty good bench. Third base will be an area of weakness, but a lineup vs RHP of:


Really isn't too bad, minus the 2-4 hitters all being Left handed.


really doesn't seem too terrible.

Easy 20 HR potential in Rollins, Utley and Ruf/Brown platoon, and 30 HR potential in Howard and Hamilton.

Good speed still in Pagan, Utley, Rollins, and Brown (just needs to work on his Baserunning skills).

Idk, if that were to happen, I'd be pretty content, so long as we add another RHP Setup man.

Just looking at this guy's stats. He is an upgrade over Vic but doesn't knock my socks off. He's 31, Vic is 32. Would rather have Vic for less money and a shorter contract, but am ok with the offer as reported

I said this before. Give me an outfield of Hamilton, Pagan (or Vic) and Ruf/Brown and I'm there.

This sounds pretty good if the money is right. Get Vic on a 1 year deal and we should be good.

@luis I don't think Pagan and Vic both make sense. Even if you assume a Ruf/Brown platoon can get you 30 homers- a big assumption IMO, where is your OF power, especiallly with a power vacuum likely at 3B? Wouldn't like that scenario. I'll say it again, I think RAJ has a trade up his sleeve for an OF that we're not talking about.

Pagan lead off. Look at stats since he took over in August. When Bruce put him there, and the giants took off.

Ian Stewart non tendered...any interest?

@circus no to Stewart but I'd look at Moylan, although he probably will cost too much.

Mark Reynolds anyone? He makes me queasy,

pb: Actually, Tabata could not handle CF in CBP. He's OK in LF, passable in RF and terrible in CF. He's got a decent arm, but fielding is not his strong suit.

Pagan is my favorite of the free agent options. Ian Stewart could form an all-bust platoon with Josh Fields at the hot corner. Their aggregate production might actually surpass that of Abraham Nunez.

I'd rather have Vic on a short contract but that's just because of my crazy notion that the Phillies core gets older each year and the team will need a rebuild starting in 2014.

Pagan is a placeholder-type. OK glove, OK bat, OK speed, but not superior in any phase of the game.

Brian Wilson could be had at a Madson like deal. Doubt they do it, though.

Cody Ross

They must be done with Vic cos I'm not sure I'd go 4 years with Pagan when you could go fewer with Vic.

Josh Fields is intriguing in a failed-prospect kind of way.

He's a former 1st round pick who turns 30 this month and tends to put up great numbers in hitter's parks like Albuquerque and Colorado Springs (and maybe CBP!) but is quite ordinary elsewhere. He flopped badly in Japanese ball in 2011.

He had good power and speed in his early 20s, but those skills have eroded. One thing that hasn't eroded in his ability to strike out, which he does about 25% of the time. And his career OPS vs. RHP is .623, which suggests a one-way player.

But he has a good glove at 3B and, in fact, is good enough to play 1B and corner OF.

He's a better fielding, less-power, version of Wiggy.

On another note, Ben Francisco has been non-tendered.

Reynolds is a butcher at 3B, but I wonder how many HRs he could hit in CBP. Worth noting: He suffered sharp drop in Isolated Power last season at age 28.

Totally off the wall thought: Andres Torres in CF. Mets designated him for assignment. Probably get him cheap. Can't hit a lick, but still fast and good glove.

The teams that won in '08 & '09 was mostly put together by Wade & Gillick, not Amaro, athough he did aquire Lee and Lidge. But what has he done for this team offensively. The anwer is not much.
Amaro brought in Lidge? news to me.
Also- he traded for Hunter Pence just two years ago when he felt the team needed some offense.
The problem DPat is that you have some bizarre ideas in your head and a timetable in which Amaro has to enact those bizarre ideas. When he doesn't you have a meltdown and lose your sh!t on here. It's silly.
I am not one of your fake sources but here is a scoop for you "You are fvcking ridiculous."

If the Phils get Pagan and he doesn't lead off, I'm rioting.

If the Giants offered him 4 years too and anywhere close to similar money I don't see him leaving the bay at all. Coming off a World Series you have to think its a long shot he leaves.

Singing Pagan would not mean relinquishing a 1st round draft pick, right?

I know Reynolds would be a complete butcher at third base and would strike out quite a bit but he would be a nice right handed thumper in the lineup.

If braves swing a deal for JUp we better get Hamilton. Third best team in east and 2nd wc race

"OK glove, OK bat, OK speed"

You're right about the glove, but Pagan has 98 stolen bases the last three years (81% success rate) and posted 122, 108, and 121 OPS+ three of the last four seasons (2011 was an injury-plagued down year). For a CF, that is not 'OK,' it's pretty damn good.

The knocks on him will be A) Injury history, B) doesn't draw walks, C) Struggles against LHP despite being a switch-hitter.

Angel Pagan has one of the best names in baseball history. He's an adequate centerfielder but I don't think he will do a lot for the lineup. If they bring in Pagan, they need to be bringing in a thumper for right field or third base.

Jbird- aside of being more than just adequate, his lower price wil allow the Phils to do just that. I would bet that if they do snag Pagan, the dominos start falling very quickly after that, as they know what they'll have left to spend on 3B, corner OF, and the bullpen.

Swisher and Pagan make a whole lot of sense to me at this point. Both are switch hitters that would offer some much needed lineup flexibility. We know that Swisher can play first base, as well. Assuming we get ourselves a setup man, the big question mark is and will be third base.

Brown / Ruf
Frandsen / Galvis

TTI~ You can KMA. I told about the team last year and I'm telling you now. I'm ridiculous? Look in the mirror. Amaro made the trade for Lidge did he not? I don't fake sources. In fact, I haven't even mentioned anything about anything I've heard, because I really haven't heard anything. And if I did, I wouldn't share it with the likes of you.

I told you last year what would happen with the team and it turned to be the truth, dead on. They finished 3rd. Out of the playoffs. And all i've said this year is that the Braves and Nats are better and have gotten better still. How are the Phils better, short of having Howard & Utley a full year? How does Pagan make them better than when Vic was here? They have little power in the OF and no power @ 3B. So offensively how are they better? They're not And people like you don't want to admit it.

If they sign Pagan, which isn't bad, but not great, it's because he'll acceppt what they're offereing. They didn't low-ball Upton? Just a 20 mill difference.

So before you talk about me, take about what you know, the the Phils are not something you know a lot about.

Hamilton makes thema much better team, now that Upton's gone, who was the best fit for them. Pagen is a marginal upgrade at best. Brow and Mayberry don't give us much in a RF platoon role. Ruf, I hope will hit and do well. but he's unproven. Galvis & Frandson, all all glove not bat, so tell me where the offense comes from?

angel pagan is a great oxymoron.

count me in the club that would rather have Vic on a 3 year deal than Pagan.

Pagan is better from the left side than the right - the opposite of Vic.

Presumably, with Utley and an improved Howard for a full season, S/H JRoll, and Brown, the left side of the plate won't be as much of an issue as the right, and Vic from the right side of the plat is far superior to Pagan.

I wonder if/how Vic wore out his welcome with RAJ?

dpat: Lidge was acquired while Gillick was the GM.

"Totally off the wall thought: Andres Torres in CF."

For about a year and a half, Torres was basically Shane Victorino -- maybe slightly better. In fact, he would have been a great example for one of my "older prospects" debates with lorecore.

Torres was a 4th round pick, breezed through the low minors at age appropriate levels, but hit a wall at AAA and fell completely off the prospect radar. Then, 3 or 4 years later, at ages 29 and 30, he suddenly put up big numbers at AAA in 2 straight years. The conventional wisdom among scouts and Beerleaguer posters would have been: he's an older prospect; he can't hit big league pitching. But for a year and a half, he did hit big league pitching very well. Of course, if you're predisposed to the "old prospects suck" view, you'll probably interpret his short peak to mean that the league got a book on him. I just interpret it to mean that, if a guy is 31 when he gets his first real chance, he's probably not going to be good for very long. But I'm sure the Giants were more than happy to get those 1.5 great years out of him, win a championship, and then flip him for Angel Pagan and win another championship.

Gillick was not only the one to trade for Lidge, but also the one to give him the disastrous 3-year extension. You can give Amaro credit or blame for plenty, but not for anything having to do with Brad Lidge.

DPat - you need to calm down and check your facts. Amaro took over as GM after '08. Lidge was acquired prior to the '08 season.

bap: "The conventional wisdom among scouts and Beerleaguer posters would have been: he's an older prospect; he can't hit big league pitching. But for a year and a half, he did hit big league pitching very well."

The conventional wisdom after his first good year in the minors as an older player would have been to say he needs to be given another year before you move him into the bigs. Torres did that, earned his shot, and panned out nicely for a year or so. There would have been no argument out of me when Torres would have been called up.

lorecore: I'm glad to hear that's your view. Others, however, would still have discounted his success even after 2 years. Hell, Erik Kratz had like 4 good years in a row at AAA, and I still saw posters on Beerleaguer who believed that the Phillies' preference for Brian Schneider was based on sound logic.

Last 3 years:

Pagan: .281/.334/.415/.749, 109 OPS+, 98 SB (81%)
Vic: .264/.334/.432/.766, 106 OPS+, 92 SB (86%)

It's an interesting comparison. Pagan is only 7 months younger than Victorino, so that isn't a huge issue. Here are the differences, as I see them:

1) While Pagan's aggregate OPS+ is only slightly higher over the last three years, Vic's individual numbers were 110, 101, 130, 91 (in 2012), whereas Pagan's 122, 108, 94, 121 (in 2012). Pagan has had more 'good' seasons than Victorino since 2009, and had probably his best in 2012, whereas Vic had a great year in 2011, and two not so great years in 2010 and 2012, including his worst year this past season. Those signs point to Pagan being a better player and safer bet going forward.

2) The platoon splits thing.

Here are Vic's numbers against RHP last year:
472 PA (71% of his ABs): .229/.296/.333/.629, 73 tOPS+

Here are Pagan's numbers against LHP last year:
224 PA (34% of his ABs): .271/.313/.424/.736, 89 tOPS+

And in the interest of objectivity, here are Pagan's splits against LHP for his career:

803 PA (30% of his PA), .259/.306/.404/.710, 87 tOPS+

Let's assume that 2012 was a fluke, and Pagan's numbers against LHP for his career are what we should expect going forward. Those numbers are at least passable, and are nowhere near where Vic's numbers are vs. RHP (and have been trending for a while). Plus, there's the small fact that there's around a 70/30 split of PA vs. RHP/LHP, meaning Vic's anemic production against RHP would be MUCH more of a liability. So I'm not sure why this is an issue worth considering. Maybe if Vic would be a platoon guy, or considered switching to RH full time...but you know that isn't happening.

If Vic was available on a 1 or 2 year deal, I might consider him over Pagan. But 7 teams are in on Vic with most offering 3 year deals, and one offering an insane 4 year contract. Both recent numbers and trends being taken into account, if Pagan is going to cost around what Vic is going to command, it's a no-brainer that they should go with Pagan.

No decision that gives preference to Brian Schneider can possibly be grounded in sound logic, regardless of who's in your minor league system.

Iceman, good analysis. I agree: Pagan seems to be the safer bet.

Brian Wilson is nowhere near the most annoying free agent available - Nyjer Morgan takes that prize by a long shot. And could stephen drew play 3B?

Almost prefer the Phils up the money on Pagan on a 3-yr deal ($36M) instead of offering him that 4th year. Probably hampers them a bit though in trying to fill other wholes including another bat at 3B or a setup reliever.

Still like Vic on a shorter deal if possible but Iceman makes a good point that he probably goes get 3 yrs he is looking for. Just don't think he gets the $10M+/year he was looking for though.

It's been an odd offseason for Amaro so far. So used to him identifying the one target he really wants, moving on it quickly, and getting it done even if he massively overpays. On offseason of say Youkilis, Pagan, and Uehara wouldn't be very sexy but it would on the surface address the Phils 3 biggest needs.

Soria and Wilson are complete crapshoots though because they each had their 2nd TJ surgery and the results on pitchers coming back from that isn't very good with a pretty limited sample size.

I have a gut feeling, based on absolutely nothing concrete, that the Phils get Pagan. They seem very concerned about center field and don't seem to think Bourn is a good fit. With Upton gone, Pagan seems like their guy.

They can't have been very serious about Upton based on that 5/$55m offer. One of the few things beerleaguer has ever been unanimous about was that it'd probably take about a 5/$75m offer to sign Upton. And, it did.

Any chance we get Pagan and can still sign Hamilton for right field?

Ideally they get Uehara on a 1 yr deal with an option but I bet he gets 2-yr guaranteed either from the O's or the Rangers.

Ditto Youkilis just because the FA market and options at 3B are so crappy.

Given where the FA market stands, I would love to see the Phils pick the phone and try to get the A's to move Crisp. Not as good offensively as Pagan/Vic but he is only making $7M next year & has an option at $7.5M the following year. Ideal fit given the Phils' roster, contract situation, and flexibility to make to make another large move this offseason if they want to.

The A's have a ton of outfielders and just traded for Chris Young.

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the A's have said they plan on keeping all their outfielders and rotating them and not going with a conventional DH.

Mike G - They did after picking up Young. Looked at the numbers quickly and after non-tendering Schierholtz the Phils should have about $24M or so to play with under the cap.

Means they can like fill 2 of the 3 holes via FA (CF, 3B, setup reliever) but won't be able to fill all 3 and have to make a trade somewhere for a lower-cost player.

Why the Lopez deal failing apart really put a hole in what Amaro was trying to do this offseason. It would have filled the setup reliever role and given him roughly $22M to fill CF & 3B or go really cheap at 3B with another OF FA bat.

I like the chances of Amaro targeting Uehara now that plan A fell through with Lopez. He isn't going to just let it go unaddressed. Or, he'll simply swing another trade. Either way, he is justified in asking for a multi-year deal.

Lee to the Royals for OF Wil Myers and prospects. The Phillies need a long term solution in the OF and I could see him manning the outfield for many years. They need to get younger. .314 with 37 homers and 109 RBI in minors last season. It may be bold but could be a major payoff for years to come.

Why the hell would you give up players to pay Crisp 7 million this year when better versions of him are out on the market in Vic and Pagan? Those players aren't going to preclude moves from being made. Trading got Crisp would be a move made by a team on a shoestring budget. Monumentally bad idea.

Morosi and Rosenthal tying the Phils to Alfonso Soriano. Another low BA/OBP, poor defensive power threat. 2/36 left on his deal.

Amaro made the trade for Lidge did he not?



DPat: If you could've predicted everything that happened last year than fine, but you didn't. Amaro didn't do what you wanted him to hoo.

Soriano is only 'a fit' if the Cubs eat his salary and he's platooned. Either way, there are no 'sources say' in that report- only that he would theoretically a good fit, which I don't quite understand.

Lee isn't going anywhere. Saber comp just ranked lee 6th in baseball. Philles are all over the map with players. I can def see them in on sor. Cheap when cubs will pay a ton. And maybe u can get the production like last year. See a lot more fastballs in this line up. Such a crapshoot....... And get him on a contending team.

Scratch the platoon thing on Soriano. He's got even splits throughout his career.

Seeing how that's the case, I don't see how he's a fit at all, as it doesn't really matter what side of the plate he's on.

Not a big Soriano fan. With that being said, I can definitely see Pagan and Soriano in our outfield next year.

Anyone who can SLG ~.500 from both sides of the plate isn't a terrible fit. 2/36 wouldn't be terrible for his production, but I'd hope they'd bring in people with higher OBP potential (Youk or Vic) in other areas.

Iceman - Isn't a RH high SLG, OF bat a pretty good fit for the Phils?

Team needs power and I can see rube llooking into pagan sor and 8th PC. At this week winter meetings. Def rather have him then Vic. Tired of this Vic non sense. If team wanted him he would be here. Seriously. I don't understand y everyone wants him. San Fran will go hard for him after we get pagan.

If the Cubs wanted to eat about $10m (which they might), I guess Soriano wouldn't be the worst acquisition in the world. That would bring the Phillies' commitment down to $13m a year and for only 2 years (just in case he tanks).

Would rather trade a worse prospect and pay Soriano.

Hook: I'd take back Vic at the right price if it meant the club could spend the money elsewhere (on what, I don't know...Hamilton?). You are acting like 1 bad season means his career is over. I'm willing to bet he puts up a 110-ish OPS+ next year.

What happened to Geovany Soto? Geez.

I don't think the Vic animosity is reality-based.

Sophist: who says the Cubs are getting a good prospect? It's a salary dump for them. They save $26 million for a team that is in a slow rebuild. If I remember right, the Cubs have been trying to dump Soriano since about 30 minutes after they signed him.

Sophist- well, if he doesn't hit LHP especially well, I don't know why it would matter that he's RH, but maybe I'm leaving out a factor in that analysis.

My issue is more with the .248/.305/.463/.768 and 101 OPS+ he put up from 2009-2011. I'm not necessarily a believer that he turned it around las year at age 36, but I concede I could be wrong.

"...Vic's anemic production against RHP would be MUCH more of a liability."

Iceman, that's only if you consider the situation in a vaccum of Vic vs. Pagan.

If you consider it in the context of Vic vs. RHP, then you have an argument.

But with Howard [.739/1.005 OPS L/R], Utley [.853/.886 OPS]. Rollins [.752/.763 OPS] and Nix [.744] in the lineup vs. RHP then Vic in the context of the entire lineup overall may be less of a liability than the extra Pagan brings against RHP.

I'm not saying it's definitive, just that you have to look at teh entire context of the lineup - both left and right handed.

Also, IMHO, Vic is the better defender, and I'm not alone in that opinion.

Not excited by the thought of Pagan at all. Vic had a terrible year, but if given the marginal difference between them, I'd rather have Vic back.

jbird - Gotcha.

Iceman - He had over .800 OPS against LHP the last two years and .944 againt LHP in 2010. The value so much isn't that he hits them really well -- although those are pretty good numbers -- but that unlike most LHB he wouldn't be a liability. There's not a lot of value in the ability to just mash LHP. He hits LH and RH equally well.

A two-year deal for a guy who's hit .255/.312/.489 over the last 3 years. He's not a world beater, but the other OF options would involve more dollars and years. Pagan at 4 years; Swisher at 5+; Josh Hamilton. Not sure trading a C prospect for Soriano would be awful. Just hope they'd bring in some high OBP guys too.

In contrast, in Mayberry's entire MLB career he's put up a line of .254/.313/.448/.760 and a 103 OPS+. So if you trade for Soriano and pay him $16 million the next two years, and at 37 he reverts back to his 3 year averages from 2009-2011, you're paying $16 million for a slower, much worse defender than JMJ.

I just don't see it. But yeah, if the Cubs want to eat most of his salary and he wouldn't cost a good prospect, I guess I wouldn't see the harm in taking a chance on him duplicating his 2012 numbers.

Sophist- if they could get him for a C-level prospect and get the Cubs to eat half of his salary, I would do it. It would be a better option than giving Cody Ross 3 years/24 million or whatever crazy number he's asking for. I don't believe Soriano can duplicate what he did last year, but I don't think Ross can, either. And Soriano is a bigger power threat.

I'm also with you that if they go that route, they also have to target a player like Youk that is going to draw walks. In a perfect world I'd want Pagan/Swisher/Youk, but Soriano would probably be a better option than Swisher with the money/years he's commanding. Most of the corner OF market is going to be way overpriced. But if Amaro agrees to pay Soriano's entire $16 million salary, I think that would be a mistake.

Over 40% of JMJ's PA have come against LHP compared to 21% of Soriano's PA from 2012. Mayberry faced LHP in over 37% of his PA last year and had an OPS under .700. It misrepresents their comparative abilities to compare their lines straight up. JMJ's career line is that high because he hasn't had to face RHP as often as a regular would.

Not that I'd be excited about Soriano. He'd make for a terrible defensive outfield, especially if it moves Ruf/Brown to Right.

Iceman -- you'd rather pay Swisher 4/$50M than pay Soriano 2/$36M? Maybe they should just target the best bets, but Pagan and Swisher would be around for awhile. I'm not opposed to either, really, but I can see the appeal of getting Soriano for less provided there are more additions elsewhere.

4/$50 is probably less than Swisher will get too. Fangraphs crowdsourcing has him at 4/$56M.

Well Vic should not have $hit the bed this past season. And not demanded 5 yrs, and maybe we would be here.

What's bad for Vic may be really good for whatever team signs him. Could just be a one-year blip.

Whoever pays Swisher 4/56 will regret it.

His skill set isn't one that tends to age well.

awh- Vic is the superior defender, though I think many would agree that he's lost a step, and Pagan's D is reported to have notably improved. I saw a stat on Brian Kenny's show the other day that Bourn has the most Runs Saved over the last three years with 50; and Vic and Pagan both are at zero (league average). FWIW, Upton was at like -20.

I'd agree with your concerns about Pagan/LHP if it wasn't for three things:

1) Vic's presence in the lineup would not (and did not) diminish the struggles the team had overall vs. LHP. He isn't taking Utley and Howard out of the middle of the lineup against lefties. As long as they're there, the team will struggle. Hell, they had Vic AND Pence and still struggled last year.

2) Pagan's numbers against LHP are not bad enough to make a huge difference one way or another, like Bourn's might arguably be. They are pedestrian, but acceptable. Vic's numbers against RHP are not acceptable, and we saw how he was a legitimate drain on the lineup against righties last year. With Ruiz/Youk/JMJ/Ruf or a FA corner OF in the order against LHP, they should be formidable, even with Pagan leading off.

3) There is generally a 70/30 split RH/LH with the type of pitchers a team sees. That right there pretty much seals that Vic's 70% ABs vs. RHP with a Juan Pierre-like OPS and an Upton-like average would have more of a detrimental effect that Pagan's 30% ABs vs. LHP with an OPS above .700. I understand the team has a lot of LHB, but it just isn't a big enough of a factor to swing this in Vic's favor. He is the lesser player.

If he could be had on a 1-2 year deal, maybe I would be in favor of it. He's going to get a contract similar to Pagan's coming off an abysmal season. The Phils need to go with the better offense player here, period. The are other RHB the team can acquire that would boost them against LHP.

Sophist- sorry, I wasn't clear. I'd want Swisher over Soriano all things being equal. If we were paying 2/16 for Soriano I would much rather do that than the ridiculous amount Swisher is looking for. Even if it was like 2/20 for Soriano I'd rather do that.

If they can all be had for shorter deals, I like the idea of Vic, Soriano, Youk, and an 8th inning type like Uehara.

Iceman - Because I don't believe the Phils are going to end up over the luxury tax threshold this offseason. If they have to outbid SF for Pagan, I imagine he ends up at least at $10M and possibly even $11M/year.

That only leaves $13M or so to say under the luxury tax threshold. Given that Amaro ideally wants say at least $2M in payroll flexibility under the cap, your get closer to $10-$11M to sign a setup reliever and get a 3B/OF solution.

I do bet the Cubs would be willing to eat a little more than $10M to move Soriano in order to get a better caliber of prospects in return. Reported it was 'significant' last year at the trade line but couldn't get any takers.

I do like a combo of Brown/Mayberry in a strict platoon in LF or RF. Brown supporters will say he 'needs to play' everyday but this isn't a rebuilding team (at least not yet). Brown has put up horrible numbers vs LHP in his MLB career (very small sample size:

.208/.284/.302 in 109 PAs.

Phils can learn to see if Brown can hit LHP in a full-time role in '14 if necessary. Don't think he can crack much more than a .700 OPS which is dreadful for a corner OF. Doubly more foolish than the Phils have a guy in Mayberry with a career .875 OPS vs. LHP (320 ABs).

Iceman - Yes, that's the point I was making. Soriano has his faults relative to the FA available, but all things aren't equal.

Among Swisher's most similar batters through Age 31...

1. Jermaine Dye
2. Jose Cruz
4. Pat Burrell
7. Danny Tartabull

His most similar hitter overall is Jason Bay.

Not exactly an advertisement for aging gracefully as a hitter.

Understand why Amaro might be interested in Soriano. Phils could use more power overall (especially from the RH side).

Going into the season with a combo of OFs that includes Brown/Mayberry/Ruf/Nix to man the 2 corner spots would be a real potential for some serious offensive downside.Probably means a combo of primarily Nix/Ruf in LF and Brown/Mayberry in RF.

At the same time, Nix needs to used a starter vs RHP to have any value to this team. Nearly useless as a bench player (really only a solid defensive option in LF, terrible career PH, and slow).

Sophist- yeah, we're just talking past each other, then, because I agree with that. I just don't agree that it would be prudent to take on Soriano for $16 million a year for two years because of the relatively mediocre three year stretch he just had. I don't think they'll have a problem with pushing past the luxury tax if they have to in order to fill the holes on the team, but I do think they have a budget and $6-8 million is significant and would probably affect the quality of signings in other areas. So if they could get Epstein to eat that money, and get Soriano at half price, yeah, that is pretty desirable.

I'd look at Soriano...assuming the Cubs are picking up most of his salary and we dont give much up. His power is pretty impressive and his splits have usually been fairly even so he doesnt kill us with bullpen specialization.

What it is worth this is what Bill James has projected on Brown/Mayberry/Ruf/Nix next year:

Nix - .241/.298/.431 (.729 OPS) with 7 Hrs in 188 PA

Brown - .274/.347/.445 (.792 OPS) with 17 Hrs in 592 PA

Ruf - Nada

Mayberry - .257/.313/.440 (.753 OPS) with 11 HRs in 306 PAs

Numbers for Nix and Mayberry seem reasonable especially if Mayberry can be see less than 60% of his ABs vs RHP. Ideally you would like him in the ~55% range. Last year he faced RHP 63% of his PAs. Year before it was only 59%.

More optimistic that Brown will hit for a higher average this year but that SLG/power seems a bit high. Hasn't hit for that kind of power since he was in the minors at Reading/Lehigh in '10. Brown has had alot of injury issues since then but that projection seems pretty optimistic.

Bill James predictions are always super optimistic...for every player across the board.

Those are probably best case scenarios by a good margin.

Also have the injury factor too. Brown has struggled with injury ailments the last 2 years & Nix has had issues with his leg muscles through out his career.

Going with that quartet to man the corner OFs is assuming that Ruf can hit MLB pitching vs LHP and not be a complete disaster in LF defensively (think he can).

Less optimistic that Brown stays healthy & really shows he can be a full-time starter or what Nix can do given a significant amount of PT in LF.

Understand why the Nats didn't have any interest in bringing Nix back. Hacker who is a fastball hitter but can't really struggles against any starter who is above 91-92 on his fastball.

If Brown had those numbers in ~600 PA I'd do a back flip...and I have degenerative problems with my back.

There is no way he puts up anything near that slash line.

I do agree with MG that Mayberry/Brown platooning in RF would work, and be the best situation (unless Ruf continues to rake, then use him instead of JMJ).

Unless they sign Hamilton and another bat, the offense can't really afford for Brown to take his lumps trying to 'figure it out' flailing against LHP in the middle of the order. This is year is 'it.' Need to optimize every bit of production they can get (this is also the reason Uehara/Adams should be signed for the 8th inning).

I was reading the espn baseball blog on what the Phillies needed to do in 2013:

Here's the line that brought me to a full stop to say, what?!?

re: Hamilton's age:
"The Phillies don't need to think very hard to come up with a contract given to a player older than 30 that hasn't turned out very well. In April 2010, GM Ruben Amaro agreed to a five-year, $125 million contract extension with first baseman Ryan Howard that covers his age 32-36 seasons. Lauded at the time, it has since turned out to be the signature blunder of the Amaro era, hamstringing the Phillies in many ways."

- Not looking to rehash Howard's contract, but were there people "lauding it at the time"?

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EST. 2005

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