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Friday, November 16, 2012

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I can guarantee that Juan Pierre's one homerun will come against the Phillies.

If RAJ trades Lee it'd better be for Headley or J-Up, not A-Rod. Then he'd better have a plan to replace Lee and get anither satrter on op of that because we don't about Doc.

If the GM is working on something that no one knows about. I'm fine with that. But if he's sitting around knowing what his team needs and doing nothing, then I have a real problem.

As far as Pierre, he was a nice player for us last year, but there probably wasn't room for him this year. Can't blame him for signing elsewhere.

Let's just not trade Cliff Lee at all. I have a friend in Boston who's always suggesting trade possibilities for the Red Sox to acquire Lee. I've told him, if the Red Sox want better pitching, go sign Zack Greinke. Cliff Lee has a special bond with Phillies fans and most of us feel that he has some years left with his talented left arm.

Delco Fan - Couldn't agree more. I wasn't implying that a Lee for ARod thing was a real possibility (I hope), just that any random fan can blog whatever pops into their head with no basis in reality. My 17 year old daughter could blog with great conviction about the players the Phils need to get based on their hotness, but I don't think Rube takes that into account. He is, after all, the one and only Total Package. Just have a very bad feeling he's determined to make his big splash by trading Lee again, which I think is a mistake on many levels.

Pierre is now an excellent candidate for a 'Philly Killer' next year.

He'll have to work pretty hard to pry that title away from any number of players on the Phillies' own roster.

GTown -- Now that's funny! You're funnier that Joe Conklin (Phillies-wise, anyway).

You really should write professionally. Twisted and funny insights don't grow on trees, and you generate them seemingly at will.

"If the GM is working on something that no one knows about. I'm fine with that. But if he's sitting around knowing what his team needs and doing nothing, then I have a real problem."

What in Rube's past would ever lead you to believe he won't do something? Only two things are certainties this offseason. Rube will do something and BLers will howl like stuck pigs about it.

"if he's sitting around knowing what his team needs and doing nothing, then I have a real problem."

No worries. I suspect that B.J. Upton will be a Phillie in short order. They're just ironing out the details at this point. Apparently, Upton's agent wants 5 years, $75M and RAJ is insisting on 7 years, $140M

Now blue jays looking to trade Travis. Rube is hot on that.

cut_fastball: Thanks. Something about Philadelphia sports seems to bring out the best of the worst in me.

Donc & BAP I hope you're right.

My fear is not that he won't do somthing, it's that he won't do waht's right. IMO, he needs 2 rH thumpers in the lineup.

They're gonna cost big-time in either a trade or FA $$. If Rube refuses to trade of spend big (and I know that risks are involved with both), then he's gonna settle for less.

Now I'm not being critcal here, just my opinion. Now a lot of teams have talked with BJ. If the Phils want him they gotta go get him.

I believe they like Hamilton more, and they're waiting to see about him. I believe he stays in the AL.

We aren't the Giants who can survive with their pitching in that big ballpark, which they've done to win 2 WS.

Again, as I've said before, in CBP, if we don't hit consistantly we don't win. Their focusing in everyone but noit acting as yet. I know they will. but it's gotta be right.

Agree completely DPat. We KNOW he'll do something. If he doesn't better check CBP for pods. I can't remember a time when all of the choices available have such large question marks. This was a crucial offseason for the Phillies anyway, but it is frought with peril. And not just for the Phillies. When the top two FA's are Josh Hamilton with all his baggage and Zach Greinke with his history, well let's just say that due diligence is a must. As I said before, BL will be in an uproar no matter what Rube does. The Chicken Little Brigade will have a ball.

No worries. I suspect that B.J. Upton will be a Phillie in short order. They're just ironing out the details at this point. Apparently, Upton's agent wants 5 years, $75M and RAJ is insisting on 7 years, $140M

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Sunday, November 18, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I'm glad I decided to randomly read this blog today. This post was definitely worth it.

Oh, and I wasn't as seethingly mad about Cabrera winning the MVP over a player who had the best non-steroid induced season in the past 2 decades as I thought I'd be. Trout still should have won, but I made peace with it very quickly.

Baseball will likely be a slumber until the Winter Meetings again Dec 3-6 in Nashville:

Dates when the Phils signed their biggest FA offseason acquisition by year under Amaro's regime

12/12/08 - Signed Ibanez (Winter Meetings Dec 9-11)
12/4/09 - Signed Polanco (Winter Meetings Dec 7-10)
12/14/10 - Signed Lee (Winter Meetings Dec 6-9)
11/12/11 - Signed Papelbon

No specific timing around them although it is still early in the offseason. The Winter Meetings are Dec 3-6 in Nashville. I expect that Amaro will sign a FA CF option no later than Dec 8th and strong odds that it is right before or even during the Winter Meetings.

CF just seems to be a position Amaro wants to get locked down for next year and then figure out everything else including 3B.

MG: You're forgetting the importance of today in Phillies history. On 18 November 1997 the Tampa Bay Devil Rays traded Bobby Abreu to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Ruf another 11 homers. Like the walks also

Congrats to Pierre. Took a minor league deal, won the job out of ST, forced his way into the lineup enough, and now has a guaranteed deal.

I think most know that Pierre had no spot on the Phillies next year, just a bit aggravating knowing that he gave us a very helpful year during a lost cause season.

So here's a serious question about Ruf. I know that he was old for his level and lacks athleticism, and I do buy that to a point, but is there anything in his scouting report that should serve as a warning that his power won't translate to the big leagues? Can harder throwers blow him away? Does he have glaring issues with breaking balls? Has anyone seen enough of him or know enough about him to say?

Jamie Moyer turned 50 today...good video on the Phils site:
http://mlb.mlb.com/cutfour/index.jsp#contentId=40354146

Haven't seen his name much on MLB trades and Rumors... Wonder if he will hang 'em up officially.

Bobby Abreu for Kevin Stocker, now that was a pretty good trade.

Would much much rather trade Lee for J Upton and sign Greinke than sign BJ. Was floated earlier, just my $0.02.

Need lee. Zac has that social issue. Not sure how he would do here . Maybe he would succeed. I don't want to chance it. U know what u have in lee.

In Sept. I advocated trading Lee and I got killed here. In addition to the payroll flexiblity it offers, I think the Phillies could fill several needs or one larger one. At the time, my hope was for Headley. Whether it's Headley or J Upton, I hope RAJ considers it. Don't know if I'd settle for straight-up deals, but Lee's value can help in the "right" deal as much (or more) as he helps on the mound.

Ruben Amaro to a reporter from the Providence Journal a couple of weeks ago - "We're not trading Cliff Lee. And yes we pay him a lot because as you correctly noted - he's real good!" I've been forwarded links to other teams blogs where the fans salivate about acquiring Lee (more than they do about Greinke even though Lee would involve a trade.) I recently saw an article from a Detroit blog entitled - Can you imagine if we had Verlander and Lee? Let the fans of other teams dream. He's a Phillie and he'll be one come April.

Congrats to Pierre. Took a minor league deal, won the job out of ST, forced his way into the lineup enough, and now has a guaranteed deal.

My thoughts exactly. I would have loved to have Pierre here in '13 in a similar role, but he earned a look elsewhere and it makes sense to take a starting job (even if it's with the Marlins).

I was pleasantly surprised by Pierre's season. I was more impressed with him as a teammate and as a man. He seemed to be a great guy. Going to miss him.

I hope that Pierre has a great year... against the Nats, Braves and Mets.

Again, as I've said before, in CBP, if we don't hit consistantly we don't win.

Saying it again doesn't make it true. How quickly people forget 2011. Remarkably inconsistent offense (look at the monthly splits), average overall, 102 wins.

oogie: "In Sept. I advocated trading Lee and I got killed here."

You'll continue to get killed if you continue to think that the Padres would trade Lee for Headley, or trade for Lee for anyone at all.

What do the San Diego Padres want with a guy who makes over half of their entire payroll? The only way you could trade Lee to San Diego is if they had a deal to flip him elsewhere.

Congrats, Jason, on your new position! I wish you the best.

I don't like the ostrich logo for Reading. The ostrich looks feminine.

As for Juan Pierre, without him, the dismal 2012 Phillies that have depressed my offseason, would have had a losing record.

I'm happy for Juan Pierre getting a shot at starting somewhere, I've always had an affinity for the guy. It's a shame we couldn't have gotten something for him at the trade deadline.

I actually hated Pierre a ton before he came here. Him and Luis Castillo used to drive me insane.

I hate this time of year between the World Series and the Winter Meetings. It's like a dead zone for MLB news and activity. It's especially bad this year with the disaster that is the Eagles.

Galvis and Worley for J. Upton.Would just need to convince the Dbacks.

Jr. - Would you trade J. Upton for Galvis and Worley?

Didn't think so.

I never liked Pierre, although I thought he was a pretty effective lead off guy for the Marlins. It's that small cranium . . . . I can't get past it.

The upside to the Pierre trade is that at least we know he's available in a trade, if the Phillies want him back.

Edmundo~ I understand your point and 102 wins cannot be overlooked, underestimated, what have you.

But the 2012 pitching staff as a whole probably did pitch as well as 2 the 2011 staff, and had mmore injuries.

Since we really don't know about Doc (I think Worley will be fine), I don't think it would be wise to bring in anything > 2 solid RH bats for the lineup. And by solid, I mean everyday players if possible. The pitching staff deserves as much.

Remember this also, even though we out-scored both the Giants and the Cards in each of our last 2 playoffs series, the deciding game in each was lost at home by 1 run.

IMO RAJ cannot afford to settle for 2nd or 3rd-tier offensive players this off-season.

Someone please provide some good Phils news....this city is in desperate needs of a sports pick me up right now

I actually hated Pierre a ton before he came here. Him and Luis Castillo used to drive me insane.

Same here. Can't say that I'm sorry he's no longer w/ the Phillies, but I have gained a lot of respect for the man & how he plays the game.

Apparently Ruf is on pace to tie The Venezuelan Winter League's single season HR record. He has 10 HR at the league's halfway mark, while Baudillo Diaz's stands at 20 from his 1979-80 season.

Ruf however will not get the chance to break the record, as he is expected to return back from the Venezuelan League to start his preparation for Phillies' ST as a LF.

Ruf hit #11 last night. He needs an August streak for a couple of weeks.

Galvis for Verlander. Just have to convince the Tigers.

Oh wow, I suck. How did I not make the connection?

Baudilio Diaz is none other than former Phillie catcher Bo Diaz.

I can't help being excited by Ruf. The head is saying one thing, but the heart, well it wants to have such a man-crush on Ruf.

All this is tempered with the understanding that the last time I felt this way, the target of my man-crush affection was Jeff Stone.

I also fell hard for Wes Chamberlain.

Stone and Chamberlain were highly touted throughout their minor league career though - they fit more with the DOM crowd than they do Ruf.

Bo Diaz is a blast from the past. If I'm not mistaken he died not long after his career ended. I think he fell off the roof while trying to adjust the satelite dish on his roof. He had some decent years for the Phils and was a good guy iirc.

It would have made no sense to bring back Pierre especially at $1.6M.

I did really learn to appreciate though how hard Pierre works & his positive, upbeat nature. Prove he could be a real contributor but got exposed a bit playing everyday.

Still don't understand why Amaro didn't trade Pierre though at the deadline or in an August deal for a RHP relief prospect. Wasn't expecting much of anything in return but this system isn't exactly swimming in RHP relievers right at the AA/AAA level who are ready to possibility help the club out of camp. Made little sense to hold on to Pierre for the last 2 months.

gobaystars!: I don't recall seeing a negative scouting report about Ruf's bat. To the extent there's a negative, it's that he's never played a full season against better than AA competition.

The negatives scouts have observed are: 1. He's slow and 2. He's a bad defensive firstbaseman and incapable of playing any other position at the MLB level.

Not all scouts agree, of course, and whether the latter projection is true remains to be seen. I think he should get as much PT as possible to see exactly what he can do.

It's not that there's a negative report on Ruf's bat necessarily. It's mostly that he's old for his level so it's unclear his success will translate. And then it's also how *good* his bat needs to be for him to actually provide value given the positions he'll play and how he'll play them.

Since there's nothing else to really talk about, I was on a british news site and noticed a picture on the side bar of David Beckham wearing a Phillies hat. I saw a similar picture maybe a year ago. So is David Beckham a Phillies fan?

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2235129/David-Beckham-enjoys-old-school-fun-daughter-Harper.html

Good job, BLers.
We didn't bite on JW's Bobby Abreu bait.

MG: Agreed. There were certainly rumors of teams inquiring about Pierre and that the Phillies were shopping, but nothing ever came of it.

I wonder if no one wanted to give the Phillies anything even worth doing it, or Ruben was just playing hard ball and hoping someone would overpay. I could see Ruben doing that since there was really no loss in keeping Pierre.

Bobby Abreu is the kindest, bravest, warmest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

lore-- re: dealing Cliff Lee for Headley.. Padres payroll is at 56 million and climbing because there are new owners and fresh money. Quentin got a 3yr 27 mill contract, Street 2yr 14 mill. They have a 3B in waiting (Jedd Gyorko). It's not a slam dunk they'd trade for Lee, but it's not as far-fetched as you think.

I remember the Reds linked to Pierre the most, then they flatly denied being interested in him. Seems plausible that nobody wanted to give the Phils anything of real value, and they decided to keep him.

Pierre signed with MIA? Good for him. I share the sentiments I've read here. I enjoyed watching him play last year; he was often a bright spot in a dark season. I loved the way he played the game and the very likable personality he presented - so much so that I'm sorry to see him go, although I understand it from the Phillies' perspective as well as Pierre's. Congratulations and good luck to him.

Yeah, why didn't Amaro force a GM to give up something for Pierre? What a clown.

Abreu sucked. He got on base at a .400 clip but it was all selfishness on his part. He got on base only to pad his numbers. He had that lazy attitude.

Then there was a player who, when he didn't get on, went ballistic. Oh, but he was a selfish player also because he showed passion when making a key out because all he cared about were his numbers.

Gee, it goes both ways huh? Guess it just depends on what you're name is.

Iceman - Amaro likely held on to Pierre because he has a misguided perception the Phils might make a WC after the deadline but Amaro could have moved Pierre at the deadline if he wanted.

It was still foolish to hold on to Pierre though even if you get a middle-tier RHP relief prospect.

Sept. 10th
"The Orioles have some interest in trading for Juan Pierre, but the Phillies aren’t eager to trade him, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com reports."
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/orioles-interested-in-juan-pierre.html#OWUufB3KgKdykvQw.99

July 6th:
The Reds are among several teams showing interest in Juan Pierre, reports ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter). The Phillies have not yet indicated a willingness to sell, but that won't stop clubs from calling.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/07/reds-others-interested-in-juan-pierre.html#cMvmBZmP3wsuIB9q.99

Bed Beard - That is the more likely scenario but I imagine it was also a case where Amaro had traded 2 starting OFs already at the deadline and didn't want to move another one for a mediocre relief prospect.

I do bet the Phils could have gotten a C+ RHP relief prospect at the deadline for Pierre but Amaro just really didn't want to move him.

oogie: you make good points, i guess San Diego is starting to bulk up - but signing a couple guys to 7-9M AAV contracts is not even in the same discussion as acquiring one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball, especially in exchange for your most valuable asset.

mg: "I do bet the Phils could have gotten a C+ RHP relief prospect at the deadline for Pierre but Amaro just really didn't want to move him."

I agreed with you earlier, but i do not agree with that. If there was a C+ prospect on the table, then I bet Amaro would have made the deal.

and no one could possibly know what was/wasn't offered - so to try and criticize him over what any of us guess what happened is ludicrous.

Jon Heyman (SI) on the Phils:

The Phillies are believed to have superstar outfielder Josh Hamilton as a fallback option in case B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn can't be signed. So Hamilton is at least on their radar.
. . .
The Phillies are eyeing Upton and Bourn at the moment. That could be because both those players are center fielders in their 20s or because of the price or both.

But the Phillies are at least known to be looking at Hamilton. "I don't think there's a whole lot we're not considering," Phillies president and CEO Dave Montgomery said when asked specifically about Hamilton.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/21057357/several-teams-have-been-tied-to-hamilton-but-he-threatens-to-have-the-1st-mystery-market

I'm not sure there's much to look at there evidence-wise, but there it is.

Said it before, saying it again: Bourn would be a terrible, terrible pickup at any realistic price. And his 6.0 bWAR for 2012 on the back of a 99 OPS+ and a 76% SB success rate is as damning an indictment of that stat as you can find (that's against a 0.9 bWAR in 2011, by the way).

MG- you have no clue if any of what you're saying about Pierre is true. Just stop.

With all the team's claiming to shy away from Hamilton, I wonder if he could fall into the Phillies' lap? Other big spenders like NYY, LAA, LAD seem unlikely. Bos and ChC look like they are going through long term rebuilds. I think Bal needs pitching more. Would a 4 - $90m get it done? Is that still too much money for an injury prone guy entering his traditional decline years?

Are Lorecore and Iceman the same person? They/He/She always seem to show up at about the same time and start ganging up to criticize the same commenters or posts.

Hugh Mulcahy,guess you didn't read the whole post. Why do you think the last sentence was there?

Iceman - It is hypothetical and of course you aren't going to have actual prospects that Amaro would have gotten in return.

You can only go off of trades that were actually made or similar comps.

We do know that Amaro expressed reluctance to deal Pierre both at the deadline and afterwards even though there was some interest.

I would have to go back and build a list of trade for bench players to see what they got but Valdez got Horst and Thome got Simon. It's not that hard to get a relief prospect who isn't considered a back-end reliever for even a bench player at the deadline.

lorecore - Your probably right. It would have been a guy outside of an organization's Top 20 and likely a 'C' RHP reliever or a guy who was no longer graded out.

jbird: "With all the team's claiming to shy away from Hamilton, I wonder if he could fall into the Phillies' lap?"

I feel the same way. 4yr/$90M seems like a steal when you consider bourn and upton are likely going for 5/6yr ~$100M deals. I think a lot of other GM's would too, which means it won't come to that.

Iceman and I are not the same, TTI and Iceman will go after MG for everything word he says, while I find myself argeeing with him more frequently than not. While Iceman has lost some of his optimism over the past year, I can't hold a candle to his "FO Apologist" title that he has been labeled with.

I'm nervous about Hamilton, but if he'll sign for 4 years, do it.

I'm nervous about Hamilton, but if he'll sign for 4 years, do it.

I'm very tempted to agree w/ this, but I fear he'll become an injury-plagued disaster. Like Polanco, only w/ a larger paycheck & a smaller head.

Ugh no Bourne for crying out loud. Give me upton youk and Bronx, or josh kepp and Bronx. Call it a success

utley/hamilton/howard - lots of lefties. Move Hamilton to RF and sign Vic back to play CF with a clause that he's not allowed to bat left handed. Guy still had a .900 OPS vs LHP last year, un-freaking-believable.

Someone is about to be signed. The reason I know this is because I just paid for my partial season ticket in full. So now that Amaro has an extra $466 burning a hole in his pocket he will be out there looking for some Black Friday deals!!
Remember you heard it here first folks!

Victorino had the lowest wOBA in the entire NL for a left handed batter vs right handed pitching.

lorecore - Didn't realize it was that bad. Someone has to encourage him to stop batting LH and just hit RH full-time.

LHB vs RHP
2012: .229/.296/.333 (.629 OPS) with a .280 wOBA and 73 RC+

2011: .270/.333/.455 (.788 OPS) with a .343 wOBA and 115 RC+

2010: .233/.305/.376 (.681 OPS) with a .302 wOBA and 83 RC+

2009: .283/.347/.440 (.787 OPS) with a .345 wOBA and 107 RC+

Since '10 though he has almost a 250 pt difference in his OPS splits. That's ridiculous.

lorecore: I think Vic could be persuaded. Charlie? Not so much.

Hamilton is left-handed but his career numbers against LHP are fine (over .800: .280/.327/.481). Some reasons not to sign him. I don't think handedness is one of them.

I can imagine Lance Berkman and his pal Roy Oswalt coming to the Phillies in a package deal.

Now Espn insider has a Lil somethin somethin on the legend of ruf. The more this guy hits and hits well. He will force the FO to do something. Keep hitting darrin. Can't wait till spring training.

Acquiring Lance Berkman would definitely help r00b's quest to make the team younger.

"Hamilton is left-handed but his career numbers against LHP are fine (over .800: .280/.327/.481."

Counter-argument: he may hit LHP pretty well, but that doesn't mean he can hit side-winding and submarine-style LOOGYs, the likes of which can be found in nearly every bullpen in baseball. And, with 3 left-handed hitters in the middle of our order, we'd be sure to see an inordinate number of such LOOGYs in the late innings of close games next year.

That, alone, is not enough reason to shy away from Hamilton, if the price is right. But it is a legitimate concern.

jbird: lorecore has used multiple screen names on this site, but Iceman isn't one of them.

BAP: "but that doesn't mean he can hit side-winding and submarine-style LOOGYs, the likes of which can be found in nearly every bullpen in baseball."

And the side-winding and submarine-style LOOGY in the Phillies bullpen is....?

lorecore- yes, I am an unabashed FO apologist. I can't get enough of defending that Papelbon deal and loved the way Amaro handled the Utley situation in Spring Training. Can't wait to get my Christmas card from Rube, Monty and co. this year.

Does anyone else find it hilarious that lorecore, whose most enjoyable topic is the team's budget, is blasting MG because he's speculating about what kind of player Pierre might've brought in a trade?

CN: I saw that too. How Berkman could possibly make sense for this team, I know not.

Given how many games the bullpen blew last season, it's odd none of these rumors have mentioned the Phillies being interested in a good reliever. Maybe I missed it.

Doubt the Phils could get Headley from the Padres, but how about Kyle Blanks? Injuries have stalled his development, but he's worth a gamble. Padres have no place to play him.

Hamilton as a 'fall-back option'? That doesn't pass the smell test.

He's the best hitter on the market on the brink of almost certainly collecting a megadeal in excess of $100 million. You don't keep someone like that as a 'fall-back option.' You're either willing to spend on him or you're not.

And from what I've read on BL, Monty and Co. will be tightening the purse strings and not sniffing the luxury tax, so these reports can't possibly be accurate.

Clout: at first I thought Blanks was a 3B and got excited, but then I realized he's basically a younger Mayberry, no? Seems even worse definsively from googling a bit?

clout- agree on the reliever need .
I wonder how Madson's situation will play out. His return date being uncertain adds another level of risk to an already risky acquisition.
Love to see him back, but some second tours of duty don't pan out.

The chance of not fielding a competitive team might make the Phils Brass move past the Lux Tax. Philadelpia fans especially for the Phillies will quickly jump ship.

I always love the idea that someone is a FO apologist. There is a difference between being an apologist and being someone who tries to understand the rationale of the team's decisions without resorting to "ROOb is so stoopid."

I try to understand the rationale and I believe Iceman does too. And I know I have, and I've seen Iceman criticize the FO for certain moves.


And even if you wanted to criticize someone as being a FO apologist I would hope you would see people on the other end of the spectrum who do nothing but bash the FO over perceived slights.

Is Kyle Blanks appreciably better than what some combo of Mayberry/Brown/Ruf is going to be? He's 3 inches and 40 lbs heavier than Ruf. Not sure he could play left field better.

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