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Thursday, November 01, 2012

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Mark my words: if Upton signs a large contract with the Phillies, the first time he ambles in the field and doesn't make a play, heads will roll. He might fill a hole that we need filled, but I don't think he's a good fit.

CF for the 2013 is going to be an uphill climb for whomever eventually lands the spot. Not because they're having to play in Victorino's shadow (or in Vic's case, his own...), but because all of the FA options are so damn polarizing. It's going to be a thankless job to start, and they'll have to win over the fanbase.

That said, I think the spotlight will shine even brighter on Dom Brown.

Not a lot of margin for error in the early goings with the 2013 OF.

A thrilling 5 walks in 72 PA for Galvis. Laughable to consider him an "internal option" for 3B as the MLBTR Phillies article does. And I'm relatively bullish on him.

I hope the ambivalence about the hot stove ignition won't affect the Hot Stove Mix.

I'm excited to see what happens, for one.

I think Upton's a nice fit but he's going to get an outrageous contract and I'll probably barf when I see what it is.

Like Upton but you to have to wonder how much a team will have to pay for his potential. Gets pricey at $13-$14M/year.

Love Galvis as the backup utility middle infielder on the Phils for Opening Day. Some will argue that will retard his development but I don't think he will ever hit enough to be a starter at the MLB level.

Quality defender at 2B/SS who Cholly would hopefully wisely use to give Utley/JRoll days off vs LHP. Hell, given how anemic both JRoll and Utley have been vs. LHP the last 2 years, Galvis really wouldn't represent much offensive downside & would hep to keep JRoll/Utley fresh through out the year.

JRoll has basically been about a ~.600 OPS hitter vs LHP the last 2 years and Utley around ~.640 OPS. Galvis probably wouldn't duplicate his number last year vs LHP but hard to see him being worse than .650 OPS either vs LHP.

When your actual baseball season is cut short, the offseason is all you have to look forward to.

Phils have some big decisions to make, and they are all tied to each other in some way(mostly because of the assumed limited resources to acquire talent) - we might not get the monster trades or huge ticket FA signings from Ruben as we have in past years, but I expect this to be just as exciting as any other year.

Coming off the first season out of first place since 2006, you could easily call this the most important offseason since then.

The hot stove is already burning me up babyee!


On the last thread: lorecore made the tv sitcom analogy. I envision MG sitting in a room like Jim Carrey in that awful Number 23 movie with Papelbon's contract numbers scribbled all over everything. He is just muttering uncontrollably to himself and saying how the numbers all tie back.

I think Upton is a good fit mainly because I don't think he will get a massive contract. I think Bourn will sign for a lot more, despite not being all *that* much of a better player (and two years older).

As for the Gold Glove, Rollins is definitely a legacy pick, but it's hard to get mad about it considering he at least used to be a top-flight defensive SS (unlike some other guys who win despite never actually being good).

Collier is the only Phil doing anything in the AFL. Pitchers have been getting lite up regularly.

Glad Bourne wants 100 mil. Check philles of list.

MG: Do you know if Gavlis hit lefties better(or should i say "less terrible") throughout the minors or was his splits in 2012 completely random?

And anyway, I am one of those people who think you risk taking away his possible development much more than you gain by his value on the bench as a glove only middle inf. If Rollins goes down for an extended period of time, he's always available for a call up, and we both agree his future upside doesn't necessitate cautious use of his options early on.

Good look on Utley/Rollins numbers vs LHP in recent years. Pair with Howard's obvious weakness and the loss of Vic's RHB numbers - and you've got a serious problem to fix. Upton doesn't mash LHP, but he does have a decent platoon advantage, especially in his OBP/plate discipline:

vs RHP: .253/.324/.418, 2.85 K/BB
vs LHP: .260/.365/.433, 1.62 K/BB

Speaking of MLBTR, their Top 50 Free Agents list was released the other day. They see the Phillies signing BJ Upton, Kevin Youkilis and Mike Adams.

To utilize his 40 SB potential, you likely have to get Upton in the top of the order, but with Rollins implanted in the leadoff spot, you've got two guys who having OBP in the low 300's, and don't hit the ball on the ground much at all.

They sure don't compliment each other too much, other than the fact that they both are able to swipe a lot of bags.

Good for J-Roll. Even if he's lost a step, he's certainly still elite at his position and much better than 'average at best,' which is what some called him this season.

Prediction if Amaro signs Upton: despite the moaning and groaning about some of the signings he's made already, in two years BL will be consumed by 'If Rube hadn't chosen Upton' complaints even more so than Papelbon, Howard etc., and those that are supporting signing him now will have selective amnesia and claim to have never wanted him.

There are a lot of options out there, and Upton seems to me to be one of the riskiest of the bunch.

lorecore - Not sure since I don't know where you get minor league splits.

I guess it comes down to whether you think Galvis can hit enough to ever become passable as a full-time starter. I don't.

Iceman: That depends on how you define "elite," of course.

I think defensively there's a group of guys above him--Brendan Ryan, who is the best defensive SS in all of baseball, but also Hardy, Andrus, Tulowitzki, Barmes, and Alexei Ramirez. Probably Brandon Crawford as well, though he's still young (as are the next wave of guys like Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox, and Freddy Galvis).

But yeah, Rollins is still above-average with the glove, and he can hit better than almost all those guys, and run the bases still, and stays healthy for the most part. So he's a very valuable player.

No shame in getting a reputation pick for a very tough to quantify baseball skill. Rollins is still exceptionally reliable at short and is nowhere near Jeter in not deserving a GG territory. Also, when it comes to the eye test, I'm sure we are harder on Young James than the others. We see each of his errors and every ball he doesn't get to as a play he should have made. When one of our guys hits a ball beyond the reach of another SS, it was well placed and a clean single.

I'm sure not going to complain about Rollins winning a Gold Glove. he probably should have more than four. He's the premier defensive shortstop of his generation, as far as I'm concerned. Jed Lowrie can suck it.

Agreed, GGs are like All-Star game starts. You miss a few early in your career because you haven't garnered the reputation yet, then you get a few at the end of your career on that reputation. Can't really complain about it. And also, I think Rollins' defense is often overlooked because he is thought of as such a key offensive cog. We're all guilty of forgetting that he plays a premium defensive position where really anything close to his offensive production is a god send.

Don't care if they sign Upton. Talented player, but I'm not a huge fan. But I'd love to see Melky Cabrera brought in. I don't think he'll come all that cheaply, but he'll certainly be more reasonable because of his problems.

And if they sign Cabrera and a good set up guy, they may be done with big acquisitions. Frandsen at third base isn't the worst option we've ever seen down there. Wiggy, Fontenot, Injured Polanco, Nunez, Martinez have all played that position for the Phils recently. If they get a Cabrera and maybe another outfielder with some pop and fix one spot in the pen, I'll be satisfied. Youklis? I'd love to have him, but he's a health risk and I hate overpaying for free agents.

But back to the hot stove!

My prediction for opening day 2013:
1. Rollins-SS
2. BJ Upton-CF
3. Utley-2B
4. Howard-1B
5. Ruiz-C
6. Choo-RF
7. Brown-LF
8. Galvis-3B
9. Hamels-P

Rollins is a very good defender, but Tulo likely would have won if healthy based on his rep and bat.

If Galvis is opening day 3B I will be very disappointed.

I'm not a fan of Melky Cabrera at all. I think every CF on the market this year inspires a lot of vitriol from distinct factions of fans. No matter what the phillies do, someone's going to be mad.

Looking here in my BL Roldex, aksmith wanted no part of Werth because he thought he smoked pot. But he wants to pursue Cabrera, a guy that just tested positive for steroids (coinciding with an unbelievable spike in production) and went on a sociopathic tear attempting to cover it up.

Say they sign upton and hunter. That would solve two problem areas. And give you two RH bats. Maybe they can get youk on cheap to come back east and play for contender. Don't forget he is related to Tom Brady now and like upton playing on east coast and large market desirable. Now these are what ifs but real ones. There really aren't no high OB free agent Cf out there. Maybe a line up of
Rollins
Chase
Youk
Howard
Upton
Hunter
Ruiz
Brown
Youk in three because still walks takes pitches and can still get it done. If chase can display same drive you can get jimmy on a first to third and youk situational hitter can get chase in scoring position for Howard. I know it's a reach, but beauty of hot stove.

For the record here's my CF power rankings:

1) Pagan (wanted him before the playoffs)
2) Bourn
3a) Bourjois
3b) Hamilton
5) Vic
6) Upton


157) Mini Mart

612) Melky Cabrera

BJ Upton- please Ruben, NO!!!

Seriously, another incredibly low on base % guy in this lineup. No thanks.

"I think Upton is a good fit mainly because I don't think he will get a massive contract."

I'm not sure he's a good fit but I do agree that he won't get nearly as massive a contract as the conventional wisdom seems to hold. Nor, for that matter, will Bourn. Just because a guy hires Boras, and puts some ridiculous figure out there, does not mean he has any chance of getting that figure or anything close to it.

"Just because a guy hires Boras, and puts some ridiculous figure out there, does not mean he has any chance of getting that figure or anything close to it."

But I'm sure he's got a binder the size of War and Peace to justify it.

I would be OK with hook's idea of Upton/Hunter. I really like the idea of Hunter on the team.

Just to clarify, that was my prediction not my choice.
I have next to no faith in Galvis being a passable anything in the major leagues. But I really don't want to see Youk next year. He has the potential to be Polanco part 2. I might be ducking the third base question a bit. Same goes for Torri Hunter. I don't need to see any more old men brought in.
I want even less to do with Melky. Can't stand him and I don't expect him to do much next year.
I don't have the personal/intangible issues with Upton that some people do (I understand why they do and it's valid). But his OBP has been trending down yearly and that is a bad sign.
I'm probably a little too high on Choo but I see him as a relatively cheap/commitment free complimentary player.
Victorino, Pence or any other recent Phillie retread, no thanks. Move on.
They really need to evaluate the young bullpen arms honestly and correctly and then fill in the gaps there. Is Bastardo over valued again? Are Deikman, Aumont, etc worthwhile pieces? What of Horst? Lindblom? Has Schwimmer burnt his bridges to the big club? It's essential that the Phillies don't lie to themselves and give jobs to guys who can't handle them. Likewise, they need to avoid paying for a dead veteran arm with lots of experience and a track record from a prior life. The bullpen bullpen is the key to the offseason. We'll see what happens.

This concludes, for the moment, my jumbled thoughts on the 2013 Phillies.

Re: Torri Hunter
His decline was masked heavily by a career year in babip. Speed, power and walks were all down. He's 37. He's got Raul part 2 written all over him.

Who should we get? Seems like they have to get the best they can with what is out three. I want Hamilton and melky. That isn't going to happen. Giants aren't letting pagan go and halos won't move Peter. Bourne nope Vic nope. I think upton has a better upside. Sure lets make all these magic trades that dopes come up with. Seems some people aren't up to par with what is real and fake. Lets not sign anyone and have Mayberry in center ruf in left and brown in right and a mini Mart and Kevin f platoon. Or let's trade for wright and j upton and choo. That will solve all problems.

What in god's name are you referring too? Who said anything about Wright, Justin Upton or Josh Hamilton?

Rollins
Brown
Utley
Howard
Chooch
Ruf
Mayberry
Frandsen/Galvis

89+ wins with healthy starting pitchers. Book it.

So we will get a guy who gives us a .264/.329/.469/.798 111 OPS+ slash, and average ~23 home runs and ~85 RBI?


Nice.

That last comment was in response to gobay saying Torii is Raul part 2

gobay- Hunter's numbers against LHP are remarkably consistent over the course of his career. He really has never had a down year overall. If he's due for a precipitous decline like you say, at the very least he gives the team a RH threat. If it's a 3 year deal, I'm with you. I don't see the problem with a 1-2 year deal.

That said, I'd obviously rather have Choo if they could swing that.

BJ Upton -- another skinny wannabe slugger with a lousy OBP (.298 in '12? WTF???). Who’s also a base stealer?

Props to JRoll. Yes he should have 4 Gold Gloves, but that's politics. Regardless, he’s a great run producer (to anyone who cares -- opinion is based on runs scored).

Moving forward, two 2 slugger wannabes at the top of the order just drags us down more and more.

Especially if Upton gets elite money. Yes, I’m aware of Upton’s 28 HRs in’12. That’s crazy; it’s almost an outlier.

Geesh

TTI, I like Rual and I like your optimistic view of his time hear. I won't argue with either. I fondly remember his tenure and I think he gave the Phillies a good amount of production. There were just stretches where age appeared to have crept up and mugged Mr. Ibanez. I'm mostly saying that the team should get young and Hunter may be a lot of things but he is certainly not young. We've spent the better part of the last two years watching Ibanez and even more so Polanco show their age. I'd rather experience that again.

cut: Upton hit 24 home runs in 2007 and 23 in 2011 so 28 this year is not really an outlier. He has averaged 20 home runs over 162 games in his career and that is dragged down by hitting 9 in 2008 and 11 in 2009.

Also, Upton's home run numbers have gone like this in the past 4 seasons, 11, 18, 23, 28.

To me, the market on Upton is low because people are waiting for him to break out and you could easily argue that entering his age 28/29 season he is due for that breakout as he enters his prime. Also, adding a guy who can hit 20 home runs, and steal 30-40 bases at the top of this order is kind of exactly what we could use. Imagine Rollins and Upton at the top of the order wreaking havoc on the basepaths while opposing pitchers try to pitch to Utley and Howard. Would be great.

Actually, if we got Upton I would consider moving Utley to the 2 spot and batting Upton third between Utley and Howard as well.

It is bizarre to me that people would not want Upton- especially when the market seems down on him.

I like Upton, but what i touched on earlier and what cut mentions is a bit a concerning. Rollins and Upton in the top of the lineup just doesn't sound like a good idea.

Also, I've been a fan of Hunter for ages. It wouldn't be the end of the world if he came here.
Although, I am surprised how quickly some of us fall for the same traps. Ex: The urge to bring back Vic, bring Polanco back cheap, keep Raul for 1 more year at the right price or sign a 37 year old Hunter. Obviously not everyone endorses these moves. It just surprises me that anyone would/did. Maybe they are just outside the box ideas and people are just tossing things out there. Nothing wrong with that.

cut: Also, you say that 28 home runs is almost an outlier for him. You know what is a real outlier? A guy with a career .336 OBP posting a .298 OBP in a season.

I'm a pretty firm believer that lineup construction is overrated. It's an easy thing to critique because it's an easy thing to see and understand, so it gets a ton of play. That said, I've always liked Utley hitting 2nd. He sees lots of pitches. He gets on base. He's an excellent baserunner. I also liked breaking up Howard and Utley without dropping one of them down to 5th. Was there a time when Charlie messed with Utley at 2nd and hit Werth 3rd? Or was it Werth that would once in a while hit 2nd? Maybe this was in 07? I don't recall.

TTI, drastic improvements are outliers. Drastic declines are predictors of future struggles. Everyone knows that!

Sarcasm, FYI.

gobay: these "That said, I've always liked Utley hitting 2nd. He sees lots of pitches. He gets on base. He's an excellent baserunner." are all good points you make.

I know lineup construction and all that gets mocked now by statheads but Utley in the two hole probably sees Utley getting pitched to differently as well. He would see more fastballs in at bats and it would give the Phillies a better shot at sending 4 or even 5 guys to the plate in the first inning. With him batting third (and a better and more disciplined hitter than Howard) many teams work to get around Utley and decide to pitch to Howard. With Utley in the 2 spot he would see some fastballs because letting him take off-speed stuff and get on base it means you need to give the third place hitter fastballs or you risk putting two guys on in front of Howard in a spot where you have to throw him fastballs almost. That is a spot no manager, pitcher, or catcher worth their salt would want to be in.

TTI- I don't want him because he's a career low-average guy whose D has slipped and has had his effort questioned numerous times- although on the effort thing, I'm aware there might be other reasons in play like there are for Rollins.

Basically, I think the Phils need a sure thing in CF next year and getting Upton they are basically paying for potential rather than a known quantity. But like I said earlier, if he's signed in tandem with another OF bat, I'd be good with that.

Already got rid of Pence. No thanks on seeing him stumble around in RF and on the basepaths. Much rather see Swisher or Hunter here instead.

I completely agree about the two hitter seeing more fastballs. Players are pitched differently based on where they hit. That's why I also think Dom Brown could benefit from time in the 2 hole.

TTI -- OK I give. However, what actually happened in 2005?

Please correct me if my observation that he dropped off of the face of the earth that year was not relevant.

No more baggage-guys for me. Thank you.

How is Upton any more or less risky than any of the other CF free agents?

None of them are slam dunk signings...for a variety of reasons.

Honestly, I don't know what happened with Upton in 2005. Someone tell me or refresh my memory. I sincerely have no clue.

Because you're paying him for a season/seasons he's never produced yet?I don't see why that's a complicated concept to grasp.

Every FA comes with risk, but not all risks are equal.

cut: My guess is the Rays felt a 20 year old guy needed some more minor league seasoning. I don't know what exactly happened there.

However, I wouldn't think there is cause to hold that against him.

Bourn? Paying for past performance and a sub-.700 OPS most likely.

Hamilton? Paying for past performance as he enters his mid-30s and has huge off the field concerns?

Pagan? etc

etc etc

They all have huge risks and none are an obvious signing.

I'm not saying Upton is the 100% we should go for but I dont see him as a greater risk than any other CF prospect.

Yeah, unless there's some wild back story that I've never heard, it looks like at 20 Upton was an unpolished infeilder that the Rays hadn't quite figured out what to do with. After splitting 45 big league games at short and third, the Rays gave him a full season at short to develop.

Upton? No.

Upton was in AAA in 2005 because the Rays had Julio Lugo as their starting SS. The only reason he was even called up in 04 was due to injuries.

Lugo was a 4 Win player in 2005...so it was a reasonable decision given Upton's defensive issues at SS at the time and his youth. They sent him back down to work on his defense at SS...he did so well there that they converted him to 3B in 2006.

The only two difference makers in free agency this year are Hamilton and Greinke. One reason I prefer Greinke is that he should be a major asset both now and five years from now when Doc and Lee are gone.

The Phils are currently at $156 million for luxury tax purposes. Signing either Greinke or Hamilton will put the team around the threshold level. Picking up a couple of outfielders, a third baseman and an eighth-inning guy will push the Phils well above the threshold in 2013. Doc and/or Utley may be gone by 2014, at which time the team might be able to drop below the new $189 million standard.

Right, every FA has risks, which is what I just said. I consider paying for those risks as slightly less reckless than paying for a guy that hasn't even proven he can do what you'll be paying him to do. But to each his own.

I am not in on the cut_fastball bizarre 'where was he in 2005' argument though.

And as much as I love derek's 'just sign everyone' idea, not sure I can get on board with that either (though I wouldn't mind them looking at a starting pitcher).

***I am not in on the cut_fastball bizarre 'where was he in 2005' argument though.***

That's a ridiculous conspiracy theory if a person was actually a baseball fan in 2005 and remembers exactly what happened...which I just outlined above. No conspiracy guys, just poor player development by the Rays due to injuries and need.

My only hope is that Rube avoids the pitfalls that are Hamilton and Bourn. After that, I have no idea what he should or could do.

I heard Upton missed all of 2005 because he didn't hustle from the Spring Training site to Tampa. He lolly gagged and didn't arrive make it to the big club until Oct 3rd, after the season was over! LAZY!

Iceman - I like Bourn but not at the price tag I think he will command or what kind of production & defense he will give the team that sings him in the 3rd year of a deal and beyond. Means at least 3 years of underwhelming production and poor value.

We remember the best. And forget the worst. Upton disappeared in ’05 for a reason. No one I've heard provides a reason. Maybe Joe Maddon? From WikI:

…On November 15, 2005, he was hired to manage the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. His signature thick-rimmed glasses have led to giveaways featuring mock pairs, and tributes from Angels players wearing the glasses when playing against the Rays….

Clean Joe show up. BJ departs. Whatever.

***We remember the best. And forget the worst. Upton disappeared in ’05 for a reason. No one I've heard provides a reason.***

You have to be kidding right? I already told you why he was sent back down. I dont get the conspiracy theories you're throwing out there.

He came up due to injuries at Age 19, showed he wasnt ready at all defensively and they had a good MLB SS already under contract. Thus, he went back to AAA to work on his defense. He was brought back up in 2006 when they traded that SS and their 3B Aubrey Huff and there was a spot on the roster for him. He proceeded to suck there too so they made him a CF in 2007.

Its not that hard to remember if you actually follow the game. Part of the reason he was called up at Age 19 was that he was a Top 5 prospect in the minors so they rolled the dice...it didnt work out for them much like calling up Dom Brown didnt work for us when he wsa a top prospect.

For what it's worth, forget Bourne and Upton. 'Band-Aids' on cancer is horrifying.

Trade as many 8-figure contracts as possible and get a do-over. Without RAJ at the helm. Please?

Don't like Melky? I don't love him. But as I said back when people were starting to slobber all over Pagan. The Giants are going to resign him at the first possible chance. They'll be saving all that Pence money.

And paying Werth over 100 million is a lot different than taking a flier on a steroid abuser for a couple of years. Because along with his lifestyle at the time, I just never thought Werth was the kind of keystone player you build around for the long term. And so far, he really hasn't been, although he seems to have cleaned up a little.

cut, I have no idea what your 11:11 post means. I've never been more confused by a BL post.

C'mon now NEPP. I have relatives with a rooting interest in the Rays.

Upton’s disappearance simply wasn't that "tidy". It was inexplicable. Again, whatever. There was a window when Upton was a pariah.

Alright, Mr. cut_fastball, explain this to me like I'm a four year old, okay?

I really don't understand what, if anything, you are hinting at?

Iceman - While in the past I have assumed a conservative financial stance, the TV deals being handed out have changed me.

The lowly Padres have a $1.5 billion TV contract; the Rangers, $3 billion. The ESPN deal alone means $23 million per year per team.

The big financial play these days is building the value of the franchise, not worrying too much about the payroll. The way to increase the value is to field a winner. You field a winner with star players.

Upton....Im not impressed...

Haha

So cut_fastball is clearly trolling at this point. Or he is on a Snoop Dogg level ganja binge.

He says Upton disappeared in 2005 for mysterious reasons. And then in his 11:11 post he intimates that Joe Maddon had something to do with it. His proof is that Joe Maddon was hired on November 15, 2005-. So a coach, hired AFTER THE SEASON, was the reason Upton did not play for the big league team in the previous season?


Good lord

The main thing with adding Upton i see is between him and Howard you'll have almost 400k's in a season. I dunno that has to mean something somewhere. Bases loaded, 1 out 2 men on base Howard to bat K, Upton up next K. I can see this pattern already in my head.

Ruiz after Howard

Luis, you'll probably see 60-70 balls go over the fence.

If BL comments were radio stations, flipping to cut_fastball's comments is basically landing on Michael Savage. I don't know why I do, but I read it anyway out of pure fascination.

derek- I'm with you on the larger point that payroll doesn't and shouldn't matter as much as some here think it does for this ownership group. I do think that the success of the team this year is imperative the sustainability/relevancy of the franchise. And I do think they are going to incur the luxury tax.

But until I see them go full-out Anaheim Angels/LAD and literally start tossing bags of money around outside CBP, I don't believe that signing six FA impact players is a possibility. Other teams will be competing for their services. Plus, the whole free will thing- I'm not sure you could even convince six high-profile players to come here, especially knowing that they would not be full-time players.

getting Upton they are basically paying for potential rather than a known quantity.

How is Upton not a known quantity? He's reached his potential. He's a low average, 20-ish HR, decent enough CF who steals bases. He's in his prime right now. His reputation isn't that great. What you see is pretty much what you will get.

At the right price/length, you grab him as you need RH power and a CF. He's likely to be about as good as he is for a few years, possibly the length of the contract. Imagine that, a guy being decent in the last year of his contract. :)

Given the health issues of the rotation (Doc, Worley), would you trade Kendrick, a ground ball pitcher, to Colorado, for Dexter Fowler?

Beerleaguer bankruptcy for me. Even after I read the Maddon Wiki entry twice, I was convinced that Maddon’s arrival as the Ray’s manager was the reason for BJ Upton’s disappearance in the 2005 season. Too bad the timeline was off by a year. Oh well. I'm good for at least 1 rushed idiotic post per annum. This certainly qualifies.

Even so, Upton’s demotion in 2005, and his drop off after his banner 2007 season give pause. As I noted before my warped warped timeline argument, we already have one player designated as a top of the order guy who’s in love with the long ball (Rollins). Why add another for big dollars?

After all, Upton hit .246 last year. Certainly, any insinuation that Upton has fleas is anecdotal, but I’ve heard from time to time he’s a glider.

Luis: The average converted runner from 3rd with less than 2 outs in the major leagues is 51%.

Ryan Howard career: 49%
BJ Upton career: 46%

Guys like Juan Pierre(56%) and Carlos Ruiz(50%) strike out very rarely and put up very similiar(albeit still better) conversion rates.

Iceman - Just to clarify my position, I want Greinke to be the single, high-impact player signed to a long-term deal. I don't want Hamilton, Bourn or B.J. Upton.

I also want to add two OFs, a third baseman, and an eighth-inning guy, but most of these would be short-term deals because the other free agents simply are not that good. My hope is that by 2015 a couple of our prospects will provide long-term solutions.

re: FA's risks

BJ Upton is as about as zero risk as you can possible, and could be called Old Faithful when compared to the CF'ers on the market right now.

- career 105 OPS+, with OPS+ of 106, 114, and 109 in his last three years
-Is 28 years old
-Has played over +140G in each of the last 5 years.
-Has +30 SB 5 straight years.
-Basically same K/BB every season(2012 his worst, but comes with career high HR/ISO)

Compare that to Melky and his PED use, Hamilton's injuries/addictions, Bourn's age as a speed-only guy, Pagan OPS's moves about ~75 pts every season and has only been a everyday starter twice in his career, Vic coming off disgusting year and is older.

If you want to minimize risk when signing FA, then you should be BJ Upton's #1 fan.

We're worried about Upton from 2005? 2005?!?

BedBeard, the Beerleaguer Branding Board needs to come up with a derisive names for that group.

For me (channeling Sarge), Upton is the lesser of the available evils. It has been stated ad nauseum that we need a RH bat with power, and that we also need a center fielder. Upton fills those needs, albeit with flaws - which we are all aware of. I don't want any part of Melky. I'd like Pagan, but I really think SF is going to re-sign him. In a poor FA market, BJ is the best fit in my opinion.

cut: you can't declare bankruptcy and then still post that his "demotion" as a 20yr old infielder in 2005 and his 2007 breakout year are still cause for concern when giving him a contract in 2013.

There are plenty of holes in Upton's game, attack them if desired. Leave that other nonsense behind.

I heard that back in 1998 BJ Upton stole the cookie from the cookie jar and when asked about it said, "who me? couldn't be!" And then to top it off he proceeded to cast the blame on Justin.

2013 OF FA's, specifically when focused on their ability to play CF may be one of the strongest FA classes in recent memory, and in any immediate years.

Given the health issues of the rotation (Doc, Worley), would you trade Kendrick, a ground ball pitcher, to Colorado, for Dexter Fowler?

Posted by: FightinsAllDay | Friday, November 02, 2012 at 09:00 AM

gonna need more than kendrick for fowler. don't overrate the phillies players

Dex splits look em up. Looks like philles going after BJ. Hope they don't read BL. He's the worse CF on market.

For what it's worth, forget Bourne and Upton. 'Band-Aids' on cancer is horrifying.

Trade as many 8-figure contracts as possible and get a do-over. Without RAJ at the helm. Please?

Posted by: cut_fastball | Thursday, November 01, 2012 at 11:19 PM

not realistic. amaro is going nowhere. deal with it

Heyman thinks the Phils are the favorites to sign Upton. Says 5 yr 60 million will get it done. Thoughts?

If you replaced a couple dozen pop-ups per year with strikeouts, Upton would be pretty much the identical offensive player as Rollins. He's certainly not bad and he's relatively low risk. He's also still young enough that he might have a career year or two in his future. But, all in all, I'm not sure another Jimmy Rollins is really what this offense needs.

Cut fastball more like a hanging slider that gets hit out all the time. Get a clue. Yeah let's blow it up genius,

I think that would be enough to get Upton to sign, and beat out competitors.

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