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Friday, October 12, 2012

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how is freddy's backiotomy?

"Behind Rollins, it goes Freddy Galvis and Michael Martinez."

This alone should be enough to put this non-starter of a conversation to bed...

Of all of the existing holes on this team, I do not understand this desire to create another one by getting rid of a very statistically sound SS. Hell, his pop-ups infuriate the hell out of me. He runs his mouth more than I'd like and the whole "lack of hustle" meme is played out. That said, we have a significant number of glaring needs that should take priority.

JRoll must have sucker punched Rube at a company function or something.

Jimmy is a known quantity and, I believe, the least of the Phillies worries. Let Jimmy, the leadoff spot and the shortstop position rest. The focus needs to be on the what ifs around Doc, who starts in the outfield, and who will toss the middle relief.

Had they pulled off a deal to Oakland, the 2012 depth chart would have been reduced to "Michael Martinez, Pete Orr."

Willard: To me, that free agent list is even more sickening than our internal options.

Hell with the FA list, take a look at every SS in the entire MLB. Its a putrid list. Jimmy gives the Phillies an advantage over most of the league. With every joe in the league having a sub 4 ERA nowadays, I dont think the Phillies can claim that at any other spot on their team.

I'm surprised that no one bit of the Scott Rolen "apropos" BBRef WAR total from the last thread. I'll give you all one more chance. I'm not hanging at work too much longer so I'll answer before I leave**.

** Slow day today

I guess this is about changing the culture on the team, which is also a big reason why they won't want Victorino back. Those two guys were very clearly the ones Manuel had in mind when he would cite guys who had grown complacent. But of all the guys on this faded-glory offense, Rollins is the one who can still actually play. Utley, to me, is a dinosaur on this team. He may not be complacent, but his presence just feels stale to me. He just isn't a number three hitter anyore, I don't care how you want to project his numbers over a full season. He's a pull-happy .260 hitter; he's basically Von Hayes at this point. I've always been a Jimmy Rollins fan, and I do understand the Phils' concern about his diminishing drive, but if any of the over-the-hill gang were to go, I'd personally wish it were Utley and Howard before Rollins.

how is freddy's backiotomy?

Per Matt Gelb:
"Galvis, playing in his first organized game since June 6, went 4 for 5 with a home run in the Venezuelan League opener for Aguilas del Zulia. He played shortstop."

God I hope not.

From the last thread: I love how for G-Town and others the entire playoffs are simply a means to rip Cholly and the Phillies and how terrible they are, which is funny coming off a five year playoff run.
"Cholly would do this, he'd never pull a starter, he wouldn't bench A-Rod.' None of these things are backed up by facts. A-Rod was given a very long leash. Cholly has managed with a very weak bench for quite a few seasons now. It isn't as simple as just pulling a guy. Girardi has a capable replacement, so it isn't a really tough decision.
There's really been one instance when Cholly had a capable replacement for a struggling vet (Ibanez/Mayberry) and he was platooning them soon after Mayberry's 2nd call-up. And there are three separate instances of Manuel pulling a starter before the end of the fifth inning (Kendrick 2007, Happ 2009, Blanton 2010). So this talk of 'Oh Cholly definitely would have botched this!!' is just uninformed conjecture.

Further evidence that every possibility was explored at some point this summer. They''d never get equal value for J-Roll and I hope he finishes out his career in a Phillies uniform. Love what he said on the last day of the season.

No way the Phils part with Rollins now. They floated it before it was clear both Vic and Pence were gone. Had they dealt Rollins they likely would have kept one of those two.

The Phils probably believe there's a role for Galvis in 2013 already so if they deal Rollins they'd have to turn to free agency. Is there a better value in free agency than they have in J-Roll? Not likely.

In case you missed it, Baseball America put out the 20 prospects in the International League and the only Phillie on the list was Tyler Cloyd, at 19th. Before you get too excited, Baseball America made it clear the IL lacked much impact talent this year beyond Mets prospect Matt Harvey.

Further evidence that every possibility was explored at some point this summer.

Where is Cesar Hernandez in either the Double-A or Triple-A list? Seems like a better bet than Asche at least, no?

Oh well, no bites. I thought it cute that Scott Rolen's WAR was 66.6. Mushmouth and Horse Face on WIP would think it appropriate anyway.

Good thread so far.

All three philles prospects in lineup in arz. Simon gets the start

For what it is worth:

Here is what JRoll did after he was benched on Aug 30:

.283/.369/.522 (.891 OPS) with 8 HRs and 17 RBIs in 130 PAs

Before that he was having a somewhat mediocre year:

.243/.303/.407 (.710 OPS) with 15 HRs and 51 RBIs

I get the clubhouse chemistry argument (and obviously none of us can really refute it), but is it really worth it to essentially downgrade your team just to improve the clubhouse dynamic? Not to mention that Jimmy has a reputation of actually being a great leader. Can't fault him for being frustrated during a frustrated year. He stayed healthy all season (which is an improvement over the previous couple). I don't see the logic in making your team worse, just to send a message about clubhouse dynamics. Also, for a GM who doesn't like to admit he made a mistake, jettisoning JRoll so soon after signing him to a multi year deal (which really was the right move, considering the alternatives) would be curious.

Ruben, do us a favor and let us arm chair GM's do the criticizing of JRoll. We're good at it, but even WE aren't dumb enough to let him go out of spite.

Per Matt Gelb:
"Galvis, playing in his first organized game since June 6, went 4 for 5 with a home run in the Venezuelan League opener for Aguilas del Zulia. He played shortstop"

Good to see the contents of Freddy's Reading Locker managed to be returned to him ;-)

For the record, I'd LOVE Marco Scutaro - in an "advanced" utility type of role (getting quite a few starts at 3B, and spelling Utley). I don't want him as my every day SS, however.

Girardi starting Endy Chavez at 3B rather than ARod. Raul will DH.


* * *

The topic of trading Rollins came up a few days (week?) ago, too. I still think it makes no sense. We need more offense in addition to Rollins. Trading him for equal production at the plate is a wash. It only helps if it's the only way we can fill another position or get someone who produces double the numbers of Rollins.

In a personal sense I'd love to see Rollins gone, as I ceased enjoying his schtick a couple of years ago. The reality is it's difficult to imagine his being dealt making the team demonstrably better. Odds are the opposite would be true. The time to cut ties w/ Jimmy was after '11. r00b, typically, pooched it. J-Roll's here, & he's gonna stay here.

Going forward the onus should be squarely on Charlie to construct a lineup like a real major league manager, & not a kid playing in the back yard. Step One: Rollins out of the leadoff spot, permanently. Step Two: Splitting up Utley & Howard. This ties right back in w/ the IbaƱez discussion: namely, managers needing to utilize their players for maximum benefit rather than minimum (potential) controversy.


@MG: "Before that he was having a somewhat mediocre year:

.243/.303/.407 (.710 OPS) with 15 HRs and 51 RBIs"

For perspective on "mediocre," here's the total year OPS for each of the alternative FA options JW listed above:

Jason Bartlett (33) - .432
Yuniesky Betancourt (31) - . 656
Brian Bixler (30) - .582
Ronny Cedeno (30) - .741
Stephen Drew (30) - .707
Alberto Gonzalez (30) - .556
Alex Gonzalez (35) - .783
Cesar Izturis (33) - .598
Jhonny Peralta (31) - .689

JW: "Seems like a better bet than Asche at least, no?"

You are correct. Hernandez is indeed a far better bet than Asche.

GBrettFan: I wish the Yanks were starting Endy Chavez at 3B. Unfortunately it's Eric Chavez, who came back from the dead to post a 126 OPS+ this season.

WP: The best player on that list is Drew, who's been plagued by injuries.

I'm really on the fence with trading Rollins. I see a great SS whole got really complacent and by the time he turned it on again it was too late. I think it spread to some of the younger guys too which leads me to believe maybe a change in clubhouse chemistry could be in order. There were rumblings that the front office wasn't all that thrilled with him despite that he had a pretty decent season. I'm not so sure it's the best move but it's worth talking about.

They are not trading Rollins. And, if they did trade Rollins for, say, a 3rd baseman or outfielder, that 3rd baseman or outfielder would have to be so much better than the status quo (Frandsen/Mayberry/Dom) as to offset the absolutely enormous offensive downgrade from Rollins to Galvis. In other words, it would have to be a .900-caliber OPS hitter to be worth it.

clout: If the Yankees started Endy Chavez he'd wind up going 3-4 w/ a Double & a couple of HR. It's that kind of Postseason.

clout: Thanks for correcting my mistake. And for not excoriating me in the process. ;)

Kyle Simon's start in the AFL today: 0.1 IP, 7 hits, 8 runs, 7 earned runs.

clout and Jason:

Asche may rank higher because of the lack of 3B talent in the minors. A player who has a chance to stick at third rates higher, especially since Hernandez's glove projects to about average from what I've seen and read. Hernandez also shows almost no power as his slugging will end up being driven by his plus speed.

Quite possibly the best Tweet ever: "Typical A-Rod, always the centaur of attention."

clout and Jason:

I should add... I think Hernandez has a better chance of making it to the majors than Asche. Hernandez is a good contact hitter with plus speed. If his glove plays, and it should (don't expect a gold glove), he has a shot at being an everyday player. I'm surprised he hasn't been tried at any other position to see his potential as a utility guy.

Asche, on the other hand, will need to prove the power surge we saw this year is real. Maybe his first year in professional ball was a fluke... a guy who just couldn't adjust. Slugging .264 in 268 PAs is concerning to say the least. 2012 was a revelation for Asche. I'd like to see more.

Jimmy drives us fans nuts. I'm not so sure about in the clubhouse. Seems like his teammates all like him. Trading him would just put one more thing on Rube's to do list. I don't see it happening nor should it.

KAS - For what it's worth, Asche pretty much raked in College. I kinda viewed his being drafted as an offensive player who might have to learn to play defense better. His "first" year was right after the draft, right after a full year of college ball. I tend to think that his 2012 comes closer to the real Asche than the 2011. But whether that's good enough for the majors is a whole other matter.

Yeah, I refuse to believe he's had a negative impact on the clubhouse. I haven't seen any indication of that.

I also think the idea that Vic or Pence were traded because of some kind of clubhouse dynamic issue is misguided. Vic and Pence were traded because there were trading partners.

In the exact thread where JW posted that Rollins was the 2nd most valuable SS in baseball during 2012:

Gtown: "The time to cut ties w/ Jimmy was after '11. r00b, typically, pooched it."

Andy: The issue isn't just the numbers for Asche, it's his swing. Smarter baseball people than I say his swing doesn't project for power. I hope he proves us wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more doubles than home runs.

Asche's power is questionable, his month of August this season notwithstanding, and his defense is questionable.

So he'll have to be a pretty good hitter otherwise to make it as an everyday third baseman.

If the power develops, he could be a David Freese-type of guy, who gets by on defense but is a very solid #6 hitter in your lineup. That's sort of a best-case scenario for him. If the pwoer doesn't develop--well, then, like I said, he better hit a ton of singles and doubles.

KAS - Asche revamped his swing before heading to Clearwater, so there's some reason to see to believe in a more permanent change.

See:

Instead, he drowned, batting .192 with 50 strikeouts in 239 at-bats.

"It was pretty humbling," Asche said. "Just when you think you know a lot about this game, you go through something like I went through last year and I realized I had a ton to learn."

As it turned out, he learned a ton shortly after the Williamsport season ended.

"The first year when we get guys, we usually don't do much with them because they've been successful with what they did," Phillies assistant general manager Benny Looper said. "They're a little more willing to listen or change when they struggle some."

Asche, after a two-week break at home in suburban St. Louis, went to the instructional league in Clearwater and started working with Steve Henderson, the Phillies' minor-league hitting coordinator, on a mechanical adjustment designed to get his swing started faster.

"It wasn't something that came natural," Asche said. "It was something I had to work on a lot. There were a lot of swings in the cages this offseason to make it become a natural motion. It's something I still work on every day. It's something I didn't have to do at other levels in baseball. I was able to get away without it, but here it was a flaw in my swing and they found it out real quick."

Asche's improvement was so drastic in spring training that the Phillies decided he could hold his own skipping low-A ball in Lakewood and playing a more advanced level of single-A ball in Clearwater. He has not disappointed the decision makers.

http://articles.philly.com/2012-05-20/news/31778675_1_phillies-williamsport-swing

KAS: good call on Asche's swing, I've read the same thing numerous times during his hotstreak. Apparently he did not change anything last year that would suggest his power would stay improved, he was just making absolute great contact with everything he saw for a month.

Mike Adams is having surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

So both he and Madson will probably be available for reduced price tags this winter. One or both should probably be pursued.

Sophist: Good article, it kind of goes against what I saw in conversations late this summer that his swing was still projected to be a stumbling block going forward.

lorecore - Probably Keith Law spreading misinformation. No question that Asche has a lot to prove, but it's true that he's worked hard on making swing adjustments.

Also remember that S. Henderson is up with the Phils now.

lorecore: Your astonishing lack of even the most fundamental reading comprehension skills leads me to believe you'd feel considerably more comfortable watching a Bleacher Report slideshow.

I'm sick of Jeter acting incredulous over every called Strike.

On Rollins: He's still one of the top shortstops in the game. I was worried for a little at first this season, but he turned it on and put up good numbers. He'll decline, but will still be better than what we could replace him with for a few more years. Why trade him?

Sophist: That's good to hear. I'm not entirely convinced that simply starting the swing faster would account for an uptick in power. I'm going to assume it was a more substantial change but that Asche isn't real good at explaining it.

GTown - Me, too. I think the Yankees practice that look. I thought Stephen Drew did it a few times, too, in the A's games.

Wow. This is pathetic. I don't care that the game is at 5:00 pm on a Friday.

http://pics.lockerz.com/s/252543779

For some reason, Asche gives me Jason Donald vibes. College draftees; picked at similar places in the draft; struggled in their first year of pro ball but broke out in their second; left side infielders with below average defense.

Still, my vague Jason Donald vibes are not a reason to write the guy off. I can kind of see why people are skeptical but, if he starts the year at AA & has another strong half-season, he'll move into the realm of legitimate prospects.

Talked to a couple of NYs at work who said economy in really spiraling there.

They just asked on DNL if Verlander is the surest bet in sports. As a Verlander owner in fantasy, I have to say unequivocally no. He's obviously an all-world pitcher, but he can struggle against some of the better lineups in the AL. The A's were the perfect cure for his postseason woes.

There are very few sure bets in sports. Now that Tiger isn't Tiger anymore, I think I'd have to go with Tom Brady.

I don't care if the Dow dropped 5,000 points today, and there's a zombie apocalypse. This is October. They are playing a deciding game in the playoffs. You buy a ticket and plan on being there for the first pitch.

MG's post RE: the crowds at "New" vs. "Old" Yankee Stadium was dead-on. The club priced out the loudest, most loyal fans, & now October baseball in New York looks like baseball in L.A. It's pitiful.

I love watching the O's play and hang with the Yankees in October. Really I do. But the ABs by these two teams in the last three games have been absolutely abominable, and it's starting to border on difficult to watch.

I'd be surprised Rollins would be traded. And it would be a mistake. Rollins is still a top 5 NL SS. And after that the drop off is significant.

Rollins is 10 and 5. That means a virtual no trade clause. The Phillies "exhausted" all possibilities to trade him by talking to exactly 2 teams.

The "front office" types who were disappointed in JRoll's performance weren't even direct quotes form anonymous sources. And the sources Knobler seemed to indicate he were using, weren't Phillies sources but the teams he was talking to. The only quote Knobler could get was from Lopes. Who was about as far removed from the Phillies at that point, given the contentiousness of his departure.

The Phillies were looking to get under the cap for 2012. They had a known quantity in Jimmy (who may or may not have been disappointing. At the time these rumors came out he was coming out of a fairly hot streak as the team overall sunk.

Amaro likes cost certainty and trading with that in mind maybe he could find a partner in the only areas that maybe... by chance... Rollins would agree to a deal. Seems like a weird mission to me.

Salisbury's reporting later on... seemed to come directly from these traderumors sources and not actually talking to the front office. From what I gathered. Maybe I'm wrong, but it didn't seem solid to me.

Once partners were found for Vic and Pence the idea to move Jroll disappeared except for the fact that the mlbtraderumors keeps excellent history.

If the Phillies were REALLY interested in moving Rollins they wouldn't have held fast to taking on all of the salary.

Rosenthal supposedly talked to an executive who thought Rollins contract was outrageous. When using FanGraphs as a reference, he's already out performed 2 years of that contract just with this season.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=971&position=SS#value

I just really wonder how "SERIOUS" it was.

Anyways its always good fodder for discussion.

If you are looking for a top of discussion tomorrow you could ask whether or not you'd do a Ryan Howard for AROD deal? It gives a change of scenery for both. And given both the lack of playoff performance from both Tex (to some extent) and AROD, the Yanks could be interested. Using Raul as an example, the Short Porch in RF and the ability to use him as a DH it could add value to Howard's contract. Win-Win. *tongue not quite firmly in cheek*

On the contrary, I find that having watched the last few seasons of Phillies baseball I'm exceptionally well prepared me for watching these two teams bat. Charlie Manuel probably thinks it's perfect.

I'm not buying it. I don't know what this is about, but J-Roll will not be traded.

Book it.

" So this talk of 'Oh Cholly definitely would have botched this!!' is just uninformed conjecture."

Further, the Charlie-haters necessarily argue that the moves Charlie supposedly wouldn't make are, of course, the better moves. If Chavez hits well tonight, they will all over it. If Chavez hits poorly and A-Rod comes off the bench to homer, they won't utter a peep.

All well no one ever knows. Jimmy could of made some comment(s) or maybe he was bringing down the clubhouse or the lack of hustle. No one really know whats goes on behind the scene. No one really knows what Rube intentions where either. Perhaps he had some type of trade involved that he couldnt completed unless Rollins was traded. People can guess from here up to Planet 55 and still be all wrong. As a side note i think Rube did have intentions on trading Jimmy. Perhaps it was to scare the rest of the sheep...Perhaps.....

Rauooooool. Just in time for the 6 o'clock news.

Good for Raul....dammit.

Good job, Hammel, to get the DP ball.

O's just not doing much off of Fat Boy. That could be another game winning hit by Raul.

Game of inches.

Ah. so close!!!

Really looked like the trajectory changed slightly. I think the O's got jobbed.

Umps Nicked the O's.

My 15-yr. old: "Who hit it?"
Me: "The Orioles."
My son: "Then it had to be fair."

He may not be a baseball fan any longer, but he still hates the Yankees. I raised him right!

That's as close a call as we're liable to see. Looked to me like the ball grazed the foul pole, but that might be a bit of wish fulfillment on my part.

Actually, he thought that if it hit the pole, it was a fair ball automatically. Is that something that changes with the park? (My apologies if this was explained in the broadcast. I was in another room and couldn't hear them.)

I think I heard it now. It would have been fair had it hit the pole - that is the rule - but it was ruled that the ball did not touch the pole. Before I knew what meant what, I thought the ball hit the pole. So not wish fulfillment, but perhaps faulty vision. That is what I saw.

I don't know if I've ever seen a replay so many times and still been so undecided on what happened.

As for the game, it's pretty clear what's gonna happen.

Another NYY run. And the deciding game between the Nats-Cards coming up soon. I think today is when the playoffs cease to be fun. At least until the TIgers beat the Yankees. How to focus on Raul v. the rest of the team.....?

Hammel is pretty clearly gassed here. Not sure he should be facing Cano.

PS Cholly would totally be doing the same thing!!!!!

This game is shaping up a lot like last night's Detroit vs. Oakland game. I'm not thrilled.

I always liked Raul, but I cannot overlook the fact that he's a Yankee now.

Raul can strike out on 3 high fastballs now.

I guess it's close enough that it's not worth getting upset about the call (as if getting upset ever produced anything except a feeling of being wronged).

GBrettFan: No, it is perfectly acceptable to let the call increase the deep, seething hatred that all good people should feel towards the Yankees.

This is basically the O's best/last chance. CC sat for a LONG time and his pitch count is pretty good. Girardi isn't going to pull him if he gets in a jam.

My only consolation will be seeing the Tigers chew up the Yankees and spit them out. I hope that happens. Sorry, Raul.

Well, that was entirely too easy for CC.

Seems like the Orioles are going out with a whimper.

Was a matter of time, honestly.

That ball definitely nicked the pole. Just shows you that we're still not going to get every call right.

Whoa, ALCS game 1 is tomorrow??

Maybe something crazy will happen. This game has been most noted so far by a missed nick on flagpole. (biased observation).

The umps did not spend very much time looking at the replay. I wonder if they saw the "zoomed in" view that TBS showed. Without that, the ball looked foul. With it, you see the trajectory change.

Fata- you're right. Your prediction of them not being able to keep up with the Yanks was totally correct. This has been a very one sided series.

Oh well. Baltimore had a good run.

Yankee Stadium is the greatest thing that ever happened to Curtis Granderson's career.

Sabathia has been falling behind hitters the last few innings.

If the O's started showing some patience, they could get something going here.

You looking for a fight or something Iceman?

I predicted that the Orioles would lose to the Yankess because I didn't think they had the horses to keep up with the Yanks.

If the Yanks win tonight, I'll actually have been right, since CC will have been the difference in the series.

Mature, big league AB by Machado there. Hopefully Reynolds can run into one here.

I would get David Robertson in here soon, if I'm Girardi.

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