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Thursday, October 11, 2012

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'Twas nice knowing you, Vance Worley. Have fun in Anaheim.

Who would they trade to LAA to get him?

Bourjous has a lot of upside. Maybe KK and Bastardo? I highly doubt clubs are the least bit interested in Cloyd. Worley doesn't have much value right now either.

His name popped up for a second during the season if I recall. I'd prefer that over throwing an excessive deal at the FA options.

I believe the Nats were inquiring about him as well.

Frank beat me to it. Trade him for Worley or Worley and PTBNL.

Trading high on KK would be a good idea but I would imagine Worley has more value than KK yet.

Probably take an established MLB starter and 2 prospects including one of the Phils' catching prospects since the Angels' system lacks much depth organizationally there.

Worley and Valle for Bourjos?

I actually think Bourjos would be an excellent idea. He basically put up an Angel Pagan-like stat line as a full-time starter in 2010, but with much better defense, a higher upside, and a much cheaper price tag. Acquiring Bourjos would also leave the Phillies with enough money to go after a power-hitting corner outfielder.

I suspect Worley would have to be part of the trade package.

They're kind of set at catcher I think. Conger is blocked by Ianneta.

JW - I meant from a prospect perspective. Didn't realize that Ianetta was signed through from '13-'15 either. They are pretty set at C then.

I don't know what kind of luster Worley has right now. He really labored this season. Hopefully he gets his elbow cleaned up.

Would trading for Bourjos leave enough money to sign strong bullpen pieces and trade for a Swisher and can I dream, Josh Hamilton?

I meant Swisher or Josh Hamilton not both.

Worley is cheap; that may be of some value.

"Utley plans to be 'ready to rock' in ST". Yea heard that last year too. Can we find a DH spot for him in the AL for something? Just don't think the guy can field a posistion for a full season anymore.

Swisher is a f/a to be, and who would want to take on the kind of $(see j.werth) for his stats over 7 years? We'd be damn fools! I like Burjois or Pagan in CF..Pagan if the Angels want too much...we need to save something to package in a trade for 3B. There are also no viable corner OF's worth the $ on the f/a market that would put up better platoon # of Brown/Mayberry in FR and Ruff/Pierre in LF.

Trading Worley now would be the definition of selling low. Trading KK would likely be the opposite. I think the club likes KK too much at this point, though.

Let me just say that declining to get Bourjos could be a fine decision, but if the guy we get instead is Michael Bourn, it'll be my cue to become a full-time, all-out, no-holds-barred Rube basher. It should be repeated in every thread pertaining to CF that Bourn is a career .704 OPS hitter (.739 in 2012), that his high WAR values for 2012 and 2010 are attributable almost entirely to noisy defensive stats (3.0 dWAR in 2012 vs. 0.4 in 2011), and that he was caught stealing at a Pierrean rate of 24% this year (career 19%). When you combine that with what would undoubtedly be a disastrously large contract, you end up with a truly nauseating scenario.

OT:
Phillies ‏@Phillies
This is very cool: a new 'Fandemonium' exhibit that celebrates Phillies fans, located at @philahistory Museum http://atmlb.com/STq8vh

in terms of trade value, Worley >>>> KK

As much as I like KK after his strong 2nd half, it does make the most sense to sell high on him rather than low on Worley: I'd do Bourjos straight up for KK. Cheap + young + CF defense = perfect fit for Phils.

Bourjos career: .703 OPS in 940 PA
Bourn career: .704 OPS in 3366 PA

Defensive abilities in CF are very well regarded for both players, i would consider it a wash. Bourn has a clear advantage of steals, and has a better OBP% as well, but will be 30 and could command over ~5 years and ~$70M to acquire.

Bourjos is only 25, and represents a ton more risk since his career numbers are driven solely by his rookie year in 2011. Its much less certain how much he'd cost in terms of trade value, but I would think that it'd be a package much less prized than a $70M contract. His upside would be his moderate pop and potential for improvement as he reaches his prime.

I think you need to give up a MLB piece up, such as Worley, and likely have to dip into 1 of your A/AA starters to make the deal.

Everyone else get this link from Phillies.com this morning?: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121004&content_id=39489628&vkey=news_phi&c_id=phi&partnerId=ed-6534758-422979570

Regarding the OF, RAJ: "I think there may be some people on the trade market that may be better for us," he said. "The free agent market offensively overall is not fantastic, but that doesn't mean that we can't get better. We are going to have to try and be creative to improve our club."

nokwurst: The Angels can't give up one of their top prospects a year or two removed for a single season of Kyle Kendrick, even if the flat out hate bourjos and love KK. Absolutely will demand better offers than that.

Shout out to Cholly rocking the sweater vest in that video!

Rube's comments about "the guys we pay all that money to have to perform" could be very easily misinterpreted. Also, he made no bones about the age of his core group of players. Very honest.

Wonder why no talk of 3B?

Not sure what Rube has up his sleeve at third, but I hope it doesn't start with "Freddy" and end with "Galvis."

Peter Bourjos will hit .250-.270 with an OB of .310-.330, 20-30 SBs and Gold Glove defense in CF and not much power.

Be curious to know where the OB comes from on your 2013 Phillies. Ruiz & Utley for sure, for however many games you can get out them. Dom could do it if he could figure out how to hit higher than .240. Howard too, if he returns to normal.

Ton of "ifs" in there, though.

"who would want to take on the kind of $(see j.werth) for his stats over 7 years?"

Once I see the 7-year contract, I'll be right there to agree with you. But why would you concede that a guy will be too pricey before you even know what he's going to get?

Werth was a better player than Swisher when he entered free agency. He was coming off a .921 OPS season, which Swisher has never come remotely close to. He also had much better speed than Swisher. There is just no way that Swisher gets 7 years. He'll be handsomely paid, but it will be a 5-year deal at most.

lorecore- Probably a pretty accurate assessment of what it would take. Worley and another arm from A/AA.

I find it hard to believe that Worley has a bunch of trade value, when his status on recovering from an injury to his pitching arm isn't yet known.

However, if he were able to be used to close a deal on this kid, it opens up another glaring hole in the rotation that Rube would have to address. I'm probably even less comfortable bringing Tyler Cloyd into the rotation than I am at sticking Galvis at 3B. And let me be clear, I'd rather put Utley's lawn chair at 3B than Freddy Galvis.

Maybe a three-teamer that lands us a couple of out-of-favor guys in Bourjos and A-Rod?

;)

How many lawn chairs does Utley have? If he has 9, then all the Phillies' problems would be solved.

I think he has a lawn chair and a stool, but neither of which are ant good in the batter's box. Though, you can put them at virtually any defensive position to simply take up space. They're not much unlike Michael Martinez.

Like this only if the plan is to get another [power] bat in the corner OF.

Besides, going with a Kendrick/Cloyd back end of the rotation is pretty risky. And does Worley even have trade value (let alone more than Kendrick) coming off a down year and elbow surgery? I can't imagine that.

Some of the questions about many of our guys (Brown, Mayberry, Frandsen, Ruf).

http://www.mcall.com/sports/baseball/phillies/mc-phillies-evaluating-1010-20121010,0,5699079,full.story

Bourjos is the first name trotted out thus far for CF that gives me any enthusiasm at all.

Not perfect, certainly, but so far seems like the best solution if they can make it happen.

If (always an if) Dom makes some strides toward his seeming mirage of an upside, that would be the base of a solid outfield.

Good point about only one year of KK, so yeah I'd add one of the younger A/AA arms.

I know WP was joking about ARod, but maybe a 3 teamer w/someone else would work, since Angels don't seem to need catching and that's where Phils' depth lies.

The High Cheese blog by Dave Murphy, with Ryan Lawrence, has interesting analysis. I was just reading the posts on corner OF and CF.

Really hope the Reds pull this off today....

KK is under team control for 2 years (arb eligible in 2014). Between that and his elevation from swingman to backend starter, he has more value than many are giving him credit for.

Well, crap.

WTH? Geez. Bad time to bobble (if there's ever a good time).

Not looking good for the Reds here.

Latos falling apart....

Stop mentioning swisher...no one wants him. He's a small fish in a big pond. he's probably the 9th choice we would have in terms of picking up a free agent OF. If we get that far down to consider him, then the off season is a waste. We cant build a competitive team by plugging every hole with the highest priced guy on the market. We already have way to many of those! We have to find guys that can compliment our stars (aging as they are) well.

Am I the only one watching, or just the only one commenting?


NOOOOOO!

Crap. Now I'll have no one to root for in the NLCS.

Ouch. I hate Buster Posey.

With my lady being a huge Angels fan, I got to see a lot of Bourjos over the past three years. It's alright, if we can sign him to something only slightly higher than a minor league contract, but I wouldn't go and expect anything huge out of him.

I'm not exactly sure where he'd sit in the batting order, for one. Seeing as he's an American League player, he was primarily hitting 8th and 9th after he couldn't hack it as a leadoff in 2010/2011. He's not a great leadoff hitter, as he never really seems to get on base, and yet with the brilliant speed, when he is on base, he doesn't steal bases particularly well (35/48 lifetime 72%).

Going back to the hitting, it seems that he only seems to get on base when NOBODY is on base, because he gets to pull the bunt single trick out of the bag, and is slowed up by other runners, so he'd almost have to be our leadoff hitter.

Only real positive to him is that he is a fantastic CF. Despite all of the flashy plays you see Mike Trout making, whenever Bourjos comes in, Trout moves to LF. I don't recall his arm being anything spectacular, so at worst, he's a cheaper, younger Juan Pierre.

I do know that the Angels are likely willing to get rid of him VERY cheaply, as Bourjos didn't get much playing time at all this season, and the last half of it was Kole Calhoun, who (if possible) could potentially be another Mike Trout.

With the Angels getting rid of Haren and Santana with their KK imposter of Jerome Williams better spot starting, they're certainly looking for pitching.

Can we have Buster Posey?

Unless the Reds do something incredible, the Dusty Baker curse continues...

Geez, I need to stop posting long blurbs from the tablet. My apologies to the few that suffered through my rambling collection of one-liners.

Can this offense really carry regular at bats from Bourjos and Galvis at 3B? I guess the defense would be awesome. They would have to get a couple of corner outfielders that provide OBP and offense if this is the case.

I'm hoping they don't go to the BJ Upton or Bourn quick fix. They'll regret both contracts.

From Lyle Spencer at MLB.com:

The trend throughout baseball in the past few decades has gone toward working counts and building starters' pitch counts in the hope of getting them out of the game in the middle innings.

The Cardinals and Nationals bucked that trend consistently, with impressive results.

Washington swung at more first pitches (32.1 percent) than any team in the Majors. St. Louis was seventh (28.9). Five of the eight most aggressive teams in the game -- Cincinnati, Detroit and San Francisco joining the Nats and Cards -- made it to the postseason.

What's more, four of the seven most aggressive teams in terms of fewest pitches seen per at-bat are postseason clubs: the Tigers (third, 3.75), Giants and Nationals (tied for fourth, 3.77), and Cardinals (seventh, 3.78).

What these numbers inform us is that swinging early in counts is not necessarily a harmful thing, after all.

Beerleauger, I need 3 HITTERS added to the lineup/ I'll give them a platoon of Mayberry and Brown for 3 months to see if either one takes the job while they watch Rufs play in Allentown. But I need 3 hitters added. Bourjos plays great defense but hit 220 last year with 122 strike outs. Add to that the fact that I think they go with Galvis (a non hitter), that really means to me that the 2 outfielders they get have to be real offensive players.

Anybody know where the Phillies fall in this? I could see them being one of the aggressive teams that failed, but I don't know.

I'm somewhat surprised at the love for Bourjos, and frankly, I'm surprised at my own skepticism. I normally am one of the strongest advocates for youth and defense on here.

However, I just don't think the guy can hit very well. He had one good season, but even in that season he had a walk rate of 5.8% and a strikeout rate of 22.5%. That would be the lowest walk rate of Jimmy Rollins' career, and the strikeout rate is basically what Pat Burrell's was.

A guy that doesn't walk, strikes out a ton, and hits for no power whatsoever? That's a pretty bad offensive player. I love the defense, of course, but this lineup needs some pop. I would rather take the average defense of BJ Upton for twice the offensive potential.

2 runs is a nice start, but they need to hold the Giants and continue to chip away against a good pitching staff.

If Rolen hadn't made that error in Game 3, this series could be over. Instead it looks as if the Giants are gonna make an historic comeback.

If this were happening to the Phillies, Rolen would be tarred and feathered.

GBrettFan - I can't verify the numbers from the report. I pulled the total pitches seen by a team, as well as total plate appearances, and here's what I got from excel.

top 10
Colorado Rockies 3.736
Detroit Tigers 3.753
San Diego Padres 3.753
Los Angeles Angels 3.756
San Francisco Giants 3.779
Washington Nationals 3.784
St. Louis Cardinals 3.784
Chicago Cubs 3.786
Philadelphia Phillies 3.790
Milwaukee Brewers 3.790

mid 10
Kansas City Royals 3.791
Cincinnati Reds 3.795
Miami Marlins 3.798
Seattle Mariners 3.811
Texas Rangers 3.812
Chicago White Sox 3.821
Houston Astros 3.823
Toronto Blue Jays 3.828
Pittsburgh Pirates 3.848
Tampa Bay Rays 3.854

bot 10
Los Angeles Dodgers 3.872
Baltimore Orioles 3.874
New York Mets 3.878
Arizona Diamondbacks 3.882
Cleveland Indians 3.884
Minnesota Twins 3.891
New York Yankees 3.891
Boston Red Sox 3.898
Atlanta Braves 3.932
Oakland Athletics 3.988

Some real goats in the playoffs thus far. Rolen; Jim Johnson; Valverde; Mike Rizzo.

It's sure been entertaining so far. Makes me forget about the Phils disappointing season (temporarily).

I wonder if Lyle was committed to so many articles and getting rather desperate, as if you look at the bottom of the list, the 3 of the 4 most patient teams were the Yankees, Braves, and Athletics, with the Orioles not far away either.

Ive never seen Bourjos but he sounds like the second coming of Bob Dernier.

Nothing like a HR to revive hope. 3 runs to go to tie....

Also adding, that Torii will be resigned. Jerry DiPoto has been quoted to have said that he'll do almost anything to get Torii back, and rumor has it that they're likely willing to eat up a good portion of Vernon Wells contract. It seems that Reagins got them used to eating monster contracts (Gary Matthews Jr, anybody).

With Kendries Morales hitting nicely in the 5 spot, it seems that Trumbo will likely be their LF, supposing he can learn to regain his power and overall hitting form after a horrific 2nd half slump (he hit .200 from August onward).

Almost makes me wonder if we could try to tug for Trumbo. He might be the 2nd coming of PtB, one of my favorite lousy LF's, ever.

Matt Cain looks to be teetering towards pulling a Cliff Lee, circa October '11.

Reds need some runs in this inning...

sdphillie, thanks for the data. I think it actually supports the article in showing that a more aggressive team isn't even that far off from a "patient" team.

Simply put, using the pitches/PA you provided, a pitcher who throws 100 pitches in a game (fair standard benchmark), sees precisely one fewer batter per game against the most patient team than they do against the least patient team. Not sure that this is enough of a difference to have any real long term effect of a team that "gets into the opposing team's bullpen" with any more frequency than another, and kind of debunks that notion, which I believe is part of the article's point.

Though, the converse could also be stated, in that there's no real benefit to being aggressive, either. For each "aggressive" WAS, DET, SFG, there's also the very patient OAK, ATL, NYY.

Are the Reds serious?!

They have been shooting themselves in the foot in the past three games.

Nice job running out of a big inning there, Dusty.

How many times does this guy have to fail to never get a managing job again?

I hate sending the runners "to avoid a double play", especially at 3rd.

Tuned in late today. Looks like Cincy is well on their way to completing a massive choke job. I don't care who you lose to injury, if you only need to win 1 of 3, & all 3 are in your home park, failure to do so is inexcusable.

On the other hand, late-inning comebacks have seemed to be the order of the Postseason thus far (albeit mostly in the AL). If there's one thing even I cannot complain of, it's a lack of compelling baseball. I hope the next two rounds are as fun.

Moral of the story: Whatever works for you??

Thanks, sdphillie. And WP for trying to elucidate.


"I hope the next two rounds are as fun."

I'm gonna have a hard time finding ANY "fun" in a series that has the Giants matched up against the Nats or Cards.

Certainly feels like the Reds are going to lose.

Go, Orioles! Don't want to see a NYY-STL or a NYY-SF World Series.

If it should be a 2006 rematch, I hope the Tigers win.

Dave - Agreed. Both games last night late were great and there have been a couple of memorable highlights/good games already.

Wonder if BAP uses the same handle when he posts on Giants sites, or if he just changes the spelling of "phan?"

Precher: Probably just tells everyone it's for "Bay Area Poster".

Dexter Fowler is supposedly available too via trade.

Love to see him here but I imagine the price tag on him is considerably higher than Bourjos.

Fowler is also arbitration-eligible (Super 2) and I would imagine his salary is somewhere in the ~$4.5-5M range next year ($2.35M last year)

Pretty cool to hear Jeter praise Raul:

That put Jeter in prime bench position for Ibanez's shots, and even for Jeter -- who has experienced his share of postseason success, in case you've forgotten -- Ibanez's performance was "unbelievable."

"I don't know how he does it," Jeter said. "I don't know how you sit around all day, then come up and hit a home run, especially off the closer. Johnson's been outstanding all year and Matusz has been doing a great job. So it's unbelievable by Raul."

Giants/Cards NLCS. Not sure who to root against in that series.

Get me to the plate boys.

I would much prefer Fowler to Bourjos offensively. Fangraphs' UZR consistently hates Fowler's defense, and I confess I haven't watched very many Rockies games the past few years. Anyone have an insight into that (beyond just "stats are stupid")? Is there something UZR is missing or is Fowler pretty bad out there?

MG, I find LaRussa's departure tamps my disdain for St Louis by just a hair. And to be honest, I'd prefer STL be in the NLCS than Washington. Though, I do secretly hope that LaRussa tries to steal the spotlight because he managed the NL to HFA via the ASG.

Jack: I'll go beyond "stats are stupid." Defensive stats are stupid!

In all seriousness, the defensive metrics have pretty consistently been against Fowler, although UZR looks worse than FRAA (which pegs him as below average, but not the worst in baseball).

There's also not a sense that Coors Field artificially depresses defensive metrics or that Fowler has been negatively affected by teammates.

If we're to take defensive metrics seriously (and using multi-year samples, I think we can), it tells us Fowler has an issue out there.

Of course, it's not a big enough issue for me to overlook the fact his bat is finally coming around!

They're not gonna pitch to Ludwick are they?

There was no RHP ready for Ludwick?

This is your opportunity, Reds. Come on!

Or fizzle out.

My choices for CF, in order of preference, are Upton, Pagan or, lastly, Vic. Don't care for Bourjos at all.

NICE play, Phillips!!!!

That was a ridiculous play by Phillips.

Phillips is amazing.

I think Fowler is another one of those Coors creations, with that he's 880 at home, and 700 away. While it might be a small sample size (53 PA), he's .787 here, averaging out to an OPS+ of 99.

Interestingly enough, Shane made 3x more this year, and over a much larger sample size, hit for a similar .793 ops, 106 OPS+.

I guess it's worth figuring out if those 5 years of youth can develop him into a Gold Glove caliber CF that Shane used to be.

sdphillie: thanks for the blurb on Bourjos, definitely helpful.

also, i was wrong about KK - he has another year of team control after 2013, I was unaware. His trade value isn't as low as I was making it out to be before - but i still don't see him bringing much of a return.

"but i still don't see him bringing much of a return"

clout's Google alert just went off.

Hope BAP is taking notes on Bochy Ball.

Now Pagan worship.

Wow. Reds have left 38 men on base in this series, including 10 yesterday.

I know it's hard to believe, but I haven't, as of yet, found Bryce Harper doing anything especially douchey as of yet in today's game. No egregious eye black, and it looks like he's opted for normal sunglasses. WTF?

SLO Phan: Pfft. Amateurs. The Phillies could manage the same in 3 games, w/ 2/3 of 'em stranded in scoring position.

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