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Tuesday, October 02, 2012

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Thats odd, his k rate and swinging strike % all took jumps up, and so did his overall performance.

Yep, write KK in as the 4th starter next year. The question will be who fills the final role. Is the Vanimal going to be healthy and effective? Will the Phils find a bargain basement veteran? I think we all know it won't be Cloyd.

I think my Dad might be available...

So is this the "real" Kendrick or not? If he's going to perform the way he did last night more often than not, then his rotation spot is secure. I would even think about some sort of extension. If he can be a ~3.50 ERA (sorry SABR guys), low walk guy, then you have to think about that.

The Phils would love nothing more than for Cloyd to become swingman / sixth starter Kyle Kendrick. If he does that, he's reached his ceiling and everyone deserves a nice pat on the back.

Sil - That's the million dollar (or more like 3 year, 18 million dollar) question.

If I were Rube, I'd try to sell high on KK.

IMO, his stuff isn't so good that the league won't re-catch up with him.

Last night was as much "the real Kendrick" as his 2 IP, 5 run start against the Nationals a week ago was "the real Kendrick."

He's a backend starter prone to wild swings in performance. In his 25 starts, he gave up either 3 or 4 earned runs in only 2 starts. In the other 23, he gave up 0-2 earned runs (16 times) or 5-7 earned runs (7 times).

Since returning to the rotation in August, KK is 7-4 in 12 starts with a 3.20 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and a 3.6 KK/BB ratio. If we get that over a full season, he'll be a revelation. I'd expect something closer to a 4.25-4.50 ERA.

I think Cloyd can do that. He looked pretty sharp in at least four of his six outings, especially for a guy who had never even approached 200 innings in a year. I would much rather see the Phillies roll the dice on Kendrick, Worley and Cloyd and pursue a rock-solid 8th inning guy this off-season over a comparably priced, mediocre 4th/5th starter, assuming the two are mutually exclusive.

I predict Derek Lowe competes for the 5th starter job and ends in the bullpen, Chan Ho Park style. Write it.

One thing I've been happy to see over his past few starts is the type of swing his changeup has been inducing. They're goofy , awkward swings; whereas Hamels makes hitters look silly with his change, those swings are comparatively smooth in comparison to those KK's been getting. It's like the batters realize sooner what's coming and try to correct mid-swing, but just can't pull it off.

I'd take Hamels' more perfect deception any day but the idea of Morse corkscrewing himself into the ground like he did last night makes me happier.

Gelb: "Good news for baseball fans: FOX Saturday games will no longer be backed out on MLB.TV starting in 2014."

How is more Joe Buck good news for baseball fans?

Kendrick will stay, & he will start, & he will have to relearn everything as he does every season. Expect lots of scoldings from Dubee. I'm good w/ the idea of Cloyd in a long relief role. I seriously dislike the notion of Lindblom in any role whatsoever. Horst has been an exceptionally pleasant surprise. I worry about Worley. Fear he might have adopted a few bad habits pitching injured which might prove tough to shake.

Hooray. Start the countdown.
551 days until FOX Saturday games will no longer be backed out on MLB.TV

Edmundo: That's what the "Mute" option is for.

***Thats odd, his k rate and swinging strike % all took jumps up, and so did his overall performance.

***

Total coincidence.

Does that mean we have to see and hear more of Tim McCarver, too? I seriously dislike that man...and he's even an ex-Phil.

Tough crowd. Buck & McCarver are certainly a dreadful pair of broadcasters, but I was still pleased to find MLB is finally planning on lifting that ridiculous restriction.

Kevin Correia might be a good inexpensive 5th starter.

Gtown: TMac/Sarge vs. Buck/TMc?

Look at KK's numbers the past 2 years as a starter. He's fine as a backend rotation option.

I wouldn't mind them signing another starter & pushing Worley into the bullpen as the setup arm they are looking for if they don't like any of the FA relief options that much.

Given Worley's performance though as a starter in '11, he's almost certain to stay in the rotation though.

"which is interesting since it wasn’t necessarily his best season statistically"

except it was his best season "statistically", if we're looking at the statistics that tell us anything interesting or helpful about that pitcher going forward

hint: W-L record and ERA are not such stats

Buck/McCarver aren't nearly as bad as people make them out to be. Not my favorite but they are adequate. McCarver seems to have slipped a bit as he has aged though. Can't imagine it is easy though to be a color guy though in your 70s just due to the simple fact of aging & inevitable deterioration in eyesight.

MG, Buck sounds like he hates baseball. That's a bad trait for a baseball announcer. :)
McCarver was once fresh long ago, but the years have taken their toll. I can feel for him for his declining skills all I want; when they get in the way of his job, it's time to go. And I say this as a guy only 10 years younger and understands diminishing skills.

Actually, the end of the blackout policy will mean LESS of Buck & McCarver, not more of them.

Fox isn't the one who is blacked out under the current policy. The one who is blacked out is MLB.tv. So the new policy will mean that people who live outside the Philly area will not be relegated to Gameday, because the local Fox network is showing the Yankees-RedSox game. It will also mean that, even if the Phillies game is the nationally televised one, you don't have to watch Buck & McCarver. You can watch Wheels, Sarge & T-Mac on MLB.tv. In other words, this might be a case of, "Be careful what you wish for."

Sophist - I just realized my mistake. I went to the Angels' April schedule and counted all the games without remembering that the first few games of the month were pre-season. My bad! I shouldn't have bothered to mention it, even if I had been right - - because your point was the same no matter what. Sorry about that.

BAP, which is why you MUST get the Premium mlb.tv. The Audio overlay of Franzke and LA is worth it, even if it does buffer the game roughly a pitch behind the TV broadcast.

Thankfully, I haven't had to listen to TMac all season, and I've only missed a handful of games.

Singularly, I'll take Buck over TMac. Buck, when paired with Troy Aikman, is actually a pretty good NFL announcer. That combo works. Buck and McCarver flat-out suck. Sarge is terrible.

Favorite sign from the parade...

EF: Absolutely! I was sitting near this guy during the CBP portion of the WFC celebration. More than a few fans eagerly affirmed their support of his position.

I can't stand Buck & McCarver.... especially McCarver. Buck is semi-tolerable, but he ought to stick to football. McCarver is hooooooorrrrrriiiiibbbblllleeee. I wish they'd just go with the home team's broadcast booth, or maybe do the home/away broadcast booth based on region of the country.

The worst is when you tune in to the Fox Game of the Week & find yourself momentarily thrilled that Buck & McCarver aren't calling it ... only to learn TMac is.

Look, Wheels is a supremely solid color guy. Compare him to others around the league and you really won't find many better. McCarthy is just generic and tone-deaf, though I admit I really raged at him the day the Phils were mathematically eliminated; no sense of the moment or any desire to talk about what it meant. I imagine Franzke handled it way better. But still, plenty of other teams have broadcasters much more cretinous than ours.

I have to say, I'm almost always listening to Phils games on the radio, so I can't really comment on how good or bad the team's TV squad is.

McCarver is a tool. When he started out here, he was actually good. Then he moved to New York and he got lots of acclaim. He got all full of himself and decided to teach the entire world baseball. Really what he was doing was teaching everybody how smart he is. Spends so much time trying to be clever that he ignores what is going on on the field. He fancies himself a latter day Vin Scully. Scully irritates me a bit too because he's also full of himself, but he is so good it's worth tolerating his ego. McCarver? Not so much.

KAS: I give Worley the 4th spot before KK if he's healthy, even if KK has a much better spring.

GBrett - No big deal. I just spend a lot of time with one of those coworkers who make you feel like you're wrong no matter what you do / how right you are, so I've been a bit paranoid about typos, small errors lately / going insane.

Seems like it would be cheaper to find a pen arm that would be better than Worley than it would be to find a starter who could be as good as Worley has been, no? Not sure it makes sense to move him to the 'pen unless he really starts slipping.

He gets something of a pass on his elevated (but not terrible) numbers this year. His peripherals were still pretty strong and his BAbip went from .290 to .351. I'm usually a skeptic of his, but I think he'll bounce back.

Sophist: You work w/ clout?

GTown: Damn you! I was about to post literally the exact same punch line, to the word.

Sophist - Should be but it depends on how Amaro wants to sign. Better veteran relief setup guys have typically gone at around ~$4M/year the last 2 years in FA.

Why is there an expectation that Worley regresses? He should be back at full strength soon I would think, and without the extra innings of a full season should have better velocity with less effort. I worry more about what is going to happen with Halladay.

WP: I will definitely consider MLB Premium next year. But we'll see. As it stands, my MLB.tv is already a good 1 to 2 pitches behind real time. I often find myself hitting the Beerleaguer Refresh button, and finding out what's about to happen before I see it actually happen.

lorecore: Odder still is that KK had a better season last year than this year.

How can that be possible?

I think there's still a lingering question about the sustainability of Worley's K rate and the general idea that the league will catch up to him. He's way out-pitched his projections as a minor leaguer. At least, I think that was the story.

Gtown / BAP - Not unless the greatest deception clout ever pulled on BL was convincing us he wasn't a Yankees fan.

b_a_p: Great minds ...

MG - How much would a SP option cost? one that could do what Worley has done: 3.56 ERA as a starter, 226 K / 91 BB. That includes his time this year when he wasn't 100%.

Unless you think he's regressing or is somehow more valuable out of the 'pen, I don't know if it makes sense to move him.

I think Worley will assume his 4th starter position. It does look like he might be better suited for long relief/spot starter etc. e a However based on his past performance i think he might to valuable as a starter. Rube will bring in some has been veteran(Millwood?) to compete for the 5th spot.

As disappointing as this season is, you guys (and that includes the female posters) made it better. Nothing like collective misery to get you through hard times. I'm sad that the baseball season is almost over. I really can't get too excited over the playoffs, although if the Orioles make a run that might change.

I read this blog almost every day this season, even when I was in Europe. Thanks to Jason for captaining this ship. Thanks to Drew for his efforts. And thanks to the rest of you for educating and entertaining me.

clout: KK had a "better" season last year based on results, which is all that ultimately matters, but he pitched a little better this year AND did it over more starts and more innings.

Interestingly... as a starter, KK had an xFIP of 4.17 last year and 4.18 this year.

PigPen Lineup: Frandsen (3B), Mayberry (CF), Utley (2B), Wigginton (1B), Ruf (LF), Brown (RF), Kratz (C), Martinez (SS), Rosenberg (P).

Frankly, it doesn't matter who's designated the "4th starter" or the "5th starter." They're both backend starters at risk of removal from the rotation should they fail to deliver.

Other than his injury issue, I don't think Worley has done anything to suggest he shouldn't be a starter. Is there something about his makeup that makes some believe he's better suited as a reliever?

Let the Gnats celebrate before the game is over. Would have been nice if they had kept it classy, but the sun doesn't shine on the same dog's butt everyday.

Hamels/Lee/Halladay/Worely/Kendrick is a more than acceptable pitching staff. Cloyd & some vets on a minor league deal can be signed as 6th starter/swingmen options in Sp. Training. After the ASB, a guy like Adam Morgan, Ethan Martin, or Jon Pettibone may be ready to step into the rotation in a pinch.

Halladay's & Worely's health is the difference between that being a exceptional rotation and merely a very good one. I'd much rather the team spend its resources on a setup man & a hitter or three.

"I'd much rather the team spend its resources on a setup man & a hitter or three."

My thoughts exactly. Try to get the Marlins to pay for Heath Bell to pitch the 8th inning for the Phils.

Would you trade Kendrick for Dexter Fowler, straight up?

K.A.S i dont see as much baseball as some of the BL'ers. At times it seems as Worley labors especially when the 5th inning rolls around. I think this is why some of us see him as a long relief guy/emergency starter.

Fightins: Would you trade Worley for Trout straight up?

I've never really seen Fowler play so I don't know a lot about him, but I would think trading a back-end starter with 1 year left on his deal that really isn't a discount for a 26 year old starting CF who had a 117 OPS+ this year and who isn't a free agent until 2016 would be a no-brainer.

jbird: Who says he's a back-end starter? He was the third best pitcher on the team this year, and may very well be the same next year. Plus, he's better than every single pitcher Colorado has.

Clout: Yes, I would make that trade.

KAS: You're right about the IP, he did pitcher 45 more IP, but here are the stats:

2011: 119 ERA+; 1.22 WHIP; 8.6 H/9; 1.1 HR/9; 2.4 BB/9; 4.6 K/9

2012: 103 ERA+; 1.27 WHIP; 8.7 H/9; 1.1 HR/9; 2.8 BB/9; 6.6 K/9

His 2012 #s were worse in 4 categories, the same in one category and better in one. Of course that one he improved was the all-important K/9 which NEPP and other members of the Moronocracy insist is the single most important pitching stat, far superior to ERA+ and WHIP.

Fightins: I'd trade Mini-Mart for Aramis Ramirez straight up.

Fightins: Numbers don't lie, I guess. If the Phillies can get Fowler for Kendrick, I'd do it, but I don't think the Rockies would. But, crazier trades have happened.

Yeah, I'd agree that the apparent-or-not improvement from KK arises from his IP difference.

As a starter:

2011: 3.14 ERA, 15 starts, 83 IP
2012: 3.89 ERA, 25 starts, 145.2 IP

Biggest thing to me is his improvement against LHB. It may not have resulted in better overall improvements in ERA/ERA+, but it's a big sign that (like his K rate) going forward he could be a different kind of pitcher and a more complete pitcher than he was in his early days.

Luis: The numbers suggest Worley is much more effective in innings 1-3 than in 4-7, but I'm not sure that's far outside the norm. His drop off does seem more pronounced however. He'll have to get stronger in those middle innings to succeed long-term as a starter.

Suprisingly, Kendrick did better in innings 4-6 than he did in innings 1-3 this season.

clout: I'll just add these as well.

FIP
2012: 4.33
2011: 4.55

WAR
2012: 1.3 (obviously additional innings helped)
2011: 0.2

LD%
2012: 17.7%
2011: 18.9%

GB%
2012: 46.5%
2011: 45.3%

SIERA
2012: 4.19
2011: 4.45

The peripherals certainly suggest he pitched better in 2012 but not significantly so. To me, the K-rate isn't the most important change... it's what Sophist pointed out, the improvement vs. LHB. THAT is what was needed for KK to grow, not necessarily more Ks (although those are great, too!).

There's a new thread.

did the nats ever get to celebrate on the field last night? ricky bo thought it was perfect that the phillies post game high fiving denied them the opportunity. classy would have been for the phils to retreat quickly and invite them to take the field in front of perhaps their largest crowd of the season.

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