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Thursday, October 25, 2012

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The reason you could afford to focus on defense at 3B is because of the offensive production you'd get from 1B, 2B, and SS since 2005/2006. With JRoll's and Utley's decline, that's not a luxury anymore. But getting A-Rod, who's just as much an injury liability as Polanco, or Youkilis, who has the same problem, isn't the answer.

I'm OK with 3B being a defensive spot for the Phillies IF, and only if, they bolster the offense elsewhere in the outfield. They need a CF for next year and a bona fide setup man, that's their priority. Over 3B, even, or adding a RH bat. I'd rather they see if Frandsen can hold the position for 2012 and carry a good utility infielder who can play 3B well than grab A-Rod or Youkilis.

Defense-first 3rd basemen worked fine when we had in-their-prime versions of Howard, Utley, Vic, Rollins, Werth, Ibanez, and Burrell. At this point, we need to find offense from somewhere. It doesn't necessarily have to be 3rd base, but it's a strong candidate since we have a clear vacancy there.

As for A-Rod, bleh. I mean, if the Yankees picked up almost his entire salary, I guess he'd be an ok one-year stop-gap. But I sure don't want to be bound to him through 2017.

and I wouldn't want to give the Yankees anything for him!

on second thought I would they can have --Martinez

I wouldn't mind getting Scutaro or Youk for third base and if we have to go with Frandsen or Galvis and upgrade elsewhere I also don't mind. We did win a wold series with Pedro Feliz. And on that note Galvis reminds me a lot of Feliz being a light hitting defensive wizard. Is he his long lost son?

And on world series talk, why the F@*! were there people sitting behind home plate with Miami Marlins jerseys on? I haven't been that mad watching baseball since... well I guess the performance of the first half Phils this year.

JW: I'm fine with Frandsen as a utility guy, but his glove at 3B does still piss me off. Asche has a .771 OPS in the AFL right now, so my line of thinking is this: Don't over invest in 3B. Take a cheap, defense first approach there in hopes of Asche being ready by September and funnel the savings into a set-up guy and the OF.

MPNPhilly: I'm with you.

And if there is any way that Dom Brown and pitching can be spun into Justin Upton, then all the better!

I don't believe a team necessarily "needs" power from the 3B position, & as such I was fine w/ sacrificing that in favor of solid defense several seasons ago (see: Happy, Pete). However, things change, & caveats apply. (a) That lack of power MUST be made up for elsewhere in the lineup, & (b) no team can survive having 2 or more "all field, zero hit" positions. The Phillies as constituted are not a viable offensive threat, & need upgrades at both 3B & at least 2 of the 3 OF positions to become one.

"And on that note Galvis reminds me a lot of Feliz being a light hitting defensive wizard."

I never much cared for Pedro Feliz but he was a Silver Slugger compared to Freddy Galvis.

I would Def be in on aroid if stanks paid salary. If Alex can give you what he did for three years y not? Chipper did fine in the atl as a 40 yr old third with shot knees. Power RH is what we need. I just think last 2 yrs were unlucky for him. Maybe he got complacent and needs a new stArt. I would rather roll dice with him. You know what u will get. Others not so sure.

By-the-by, I do like Frandsen ... as a bench/injury replacement option. He should not be tapped to start after one MLB hot streak (see Mayberry, John).

As frustrating as it was sometimes to watch Pete Happy hit, and as sad as it was to see Polanco deteriorate physically to the point of uselessness - I must say it was indeed nice not to have to worry about defense when those guys were playing. You knew those two would gobble up just about every ball they could reach, and to me, that's worth something.

The lack of offense at 3B is becoming a less hummable tune for the reasons BAP and TheGodfather mentioned. That said, if we can get better in the outfield in that regard, it should offset some of that.

I wouldn't be upset about a Galvis/Frandsen situation over there for '13, given that the FA/trade prospects at 3B suck this offseason. Then you wait and see what Asche, Maikel Franco turn out to be. Hopefully one (probably Asche) can be MLB ready in '14.

Feliz was by no means a great hitter, but I don't think he was light-hitting either. Didn't he avg ~ 20 HRs a season? More than Galvis would put up over a full season (though the avgs would be about the same at .220)

I disagree. I believe the Phils would have had a longer lasting peak if they had had some offense at third. The offense has been anemic when either Utley and Howard were sidelined, and they absolutely stank when they were both out. Having no power at all at 3B eliminates the advantage you gain from having it at 2B. Dumb.

"Almost All" is hard to define when the total is over $100M. And with 10-5 rights, does anyone think Arod accepts a deal without his HR Record bonuses guaranteed? Thats like another $30M right there.

Agree with Andy. We lost 2010 and 2011 postseason almost exclusively to offensive struggles - and polly was a blackhole.

His phillies playoff line is .167/.208/.208 in 53 PA.

Maybe if our 3B didnt suck so damn bad things could have been different.

For those wanting an offensive thread at 3B in the offseason, where are you finding it? We have the old, the oft-injured and the awful.

2013 is a year to stop-gap at 3B and hope Asche is ready in 2014. If he's not, then we go after that position in the offseason.

I don't think the Phils should empty their own farm system to find a more permanent replacement at 3B. Especially with 3 prospects at the hot corner in our minors right now.

KAS - Not saying there's anything out there. Just saying that it's incorrect to assume that having a wimpy 3B hasn't cost the Phils.

I'd look at AROD...if the Yankees were willing to swallow 80-90% of his remaining salary AND expect nothing more than a bus ticket for him in return.

Feliz was definitely light hitting among peers. Had his share of clutch big hits, but Just didn't get on base enough.

Andy: The Phillies have had their longest stretch of sustained success in franchise history with nothing from the hot corner. Hasn't cost them much.

Latest on Youkilis (which was a few weeks old):

"The White Sox plan to decline Kevin Youkilis’ $13MM option for 2013, Heyman reports. However, they loved having the third baseman on the roster this year, so Heyman suggests they’ll try to work out a two-year contract, perhaps in the $15MM range."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20442220/hahn-will-ascend-to-the-gm-job-on-the-south-side-but-then-comes-three-tough-free-agent-calls

Youkilis did tail off badly in Sept which hurt the White Sox in the playoff race to finish at .236/.346/.425 with 15 HRs in 292 ABs. Ended up at .233/.336/.409 with 19 HRs in 438 ABs.

His power was really benefited from playing at Cellular Field though. He hit 12 of his 15 HRs in a White Sox uniform there.

Really risky signing given his back issues. If the Phils think he can give them a line of say .250/.350/.430 with 18-20 HRs while starting 130-135 G at 3B, they definitely should make a strong run at signing Youkilis.

He's a negative on the basepaths & defensively is below average at 3B but his OBP and Power would compensate for that. Polanco gave the Phils a line .257/.302/.327 this year with 2 HRs in 303 ABs and a complete zero on the basepaths.

BAP: You really think Galvis only what 22? Will hit even lighter than Feliz throughout his career?

2011 - we lost a best of five series to the team that eventually won it all. Lots of factors why they lost, offense being one of them, certainly, but Cliff Lee blew it, Charlie Manuel had a bad tactical series, etc.

I don't think anyone knows what kind of hitter Galvis will be. He looked a bit overmatched in his first season. And there is the roid thing hanging over his head. But if he's even just a decent hitter, his glove will play at short or second. I don't see it playing at third base because as has been pointed out, short, second and possibly first may no longer be power positions for the Phils.

"I don't think anyone knows what kind of hitter Galvis will be"

I do - Not Good.

If they decide not to use what's lying around the house (Galvis, Frandsen, and/or Asche):

Option A - Kevin Youkilis. If you can get him for 2/$20M, do it. I'm not sure that gets it done, though.

Option B - Maicer Izturis. He's decent with the bat (2012 was a down year) and a good glove man at three positions (3B, SS, 2B). As a switch-hitter, he could platoon with Frandsen at third. Added bonus - Izturis is a perfectly capable shortstop if J-Roll gets hurt, so Galvis could start in AAA rather than riding pine in the majors.

Option C - Jeff Keppinger. Izturis with a worse glove but a better bat - essentially a wash. He's behind Izturis here mainly because he's a right-handed hitter and is stretched at SS, so they'd likely end up having to keep Galvis.

Option D - Wilson Betemit (platooning with Kevin Frandsen). Betemit's a very solid hitter against RHP, but he can't hit lefties and he's awful at 3B (probably a notch better than Wigginton, but worse than Frandsen). The upside - once Asche is ready, Betemit becomes a good bench bat at the infield corners. They'd have to trade with Baltimore to get him, but given the emergence of Manny Machado, I doubt Betemit would cost a ton. He's also signed cheaply through 2014.

After those four options, I think they're better off sticking with what they have in-house and hoping Asche tears up AAA in the first half.

The key point you're all missing:

From 06-11 they were able to withstand the subpar performance at 3B because they had outperformance at 2B SS and CF.

Does anyone honestly think that will be the case in 2013? Maybe slightly, but not to as great of an extent as in the past.

STS: No one is missing that point. That goes without saying. It's agreed that if we go light-hitting at 3B it will be to sign a big OF bat or two and also rely on top notch pitching.

JW: "if his glove was just a little better, he's (Frandsen) really no different than postseason darling Marco Scutaro."

Well, other than the fact that Scutaro has posted a 104 OPS+ as an everyday player the past 4 years and Frandsen is at 82.

how can you say that it hasnt hurt them.. if they would have signed aramis ramirez to play third last offseason we would have made the playoffs this year. the lack of a middle of the order for 3 months destroyed our season.

Righty hitter, hit for high average. Scutaro wasn't a regular until around age 30. Granted, small sample size for Frandsen last year, but still. Similar model hitter. Not as good as Scutaro, but I don't think the comparison is a complete stretch.

Ok, but if you sign Aramis Ramirez, you either have no Rollins or no Papelbon.

Aramis Ramirez wouldn't have put them over the hump. What the hell?

He would have been a nice addition but with everything that went wrong this year, I doubt he gets them to 90 wins.

I was going to post what everyone else has, you can afford lower production from your 3b if you are getting AS production every where else. Phillies don't have that luxury anymore, unfortunately, good players at third are not thick on the ground this offseason.

STS: No one is missing that point. That goes without saying. It's agreed that if we go light-hitting at 3B it will be to sign a big OF bat or two and also rely on top notch pitching.

Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 01:43 PM

That's the logical next step. But unless they sign Hamilton, I don't think the full '13 outfield will out outproduce any from '06-11 either. Thus 3B becomes that much more important unless you expect Chooch to reproduce his '12.

**not advocating signing Hamilton either given the guaranteed years it will take.

If the Yankees resign Ichiro or any outfielders and Brett Gardner becomes not expendable but maybe like a 4th outfielder, would he be worth looking at as a left or right fielder?

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/10/25/cubs-cutting-down-on-scalpers-by-declining-to-renew-1000-season-tickets/

Cubs aren't pissed at people reselling tickets and scalping them. The Cubs are just pissed that cut that Stubhub gets on the ticket sales isn't going into their coffers instead.

Its funny to read in the comments how people think the Cubs are doing this to 'benefit fans.' Yeah right.

Other reason too is the 'no-shows' which hurt concession & merchandise revenues too and tickets that appear on Stubhub under face value too like a ton of Phils' tickets did in Aug & Sept.

Youk can be useful. And they're not trading for Headley. So they'll almost certainly have to skimp @ 3b simply because there just isn't much available.

And they can if they can get the big RH bat for LH (and Ruff MAY be that bat), along with the proper CF'der.

This team is going to have to hit consistantly. With Doc's shoulder issues, age, and Lee getting older too, they can't afford not to.

We all saw what happened last year. And that kind of overall performance cannot be repeated.

I'd go with either Izturis or Keppinger at 3B until Asche is ready. The primary needs are OF and setup reliever

I like Asche, I do; but isn't his upside a league average 3B? I wouldn't center my offseason plans for the hot corner around Asche coming up in July and going gangbusters.

Keppinger might be best bet, but couldn't have just only went like ~110 OPS+ last year so we don't have to completely overpay?

Hope all you people are right about Asche,I'm not convinced.Can't judge on only seeing him twice but was not 1 bit impressed. Has to cut down on k's Time will tell.

The Phillies have some nice pieces on the horizon, but they don't have a single player that should affect the building of their MLB team. Yes they've got some promising relief arms who allow you to forgo acquiring a whole bullpen, but thats about it.

The first move Ruben doesn't make because of the presence of any current prospect we have will be an extremely risky one.

Even when DOM was amongst the best prospects in baseball, he still wasn't a factor in how the MLB team was assembled. How many corner OF have been acquired while he's been our #1 prospect? Plenty.

jr: Thats the first time i've ever heard someone mention strikeouts as something Asche needs to overcome. Almost every report refers to him as a matured hitter who makes plenty of contact.

to piggyback my last comment - I would gladly invite Asche's K rate to rise if it was a production of increased power.

Asche had a .098 ISO in Clearwater while only striking out only 14.5% of the his ABs. Then he went to Reading, and posted an impressive .213 ISO while his K rate jumped to 22%.

The .200 ISO/20% K rate player is who we should be rooting for to emerge.

To be honest, I'm disappointed we're not seeing more out of Asche so far. It's a hitter's league adn he's got just 4 XBHs, all doubles and a paltry 2 BBs in 11 games.

ColonelTom, excellent list. I would add Erik Chavez, but not sure how good his defense is now.

I like Youkilis as great fit (especially last year when he could play some 1B) but injury risk is high.

Assuming Chavez is avg on D, I like him with some incentive type option for next year.

Izturis/Frandsen combo at least gives two reasonable utility options. Not sure if Frandsen could field SS in a pinch at this point.

I do NOT want to see Galvis in the majors this year. He still needs to develop his bat. And even developed, his bat will be bad for any position other than SS.

Like Mayberry for 2012 (failed), Brown will be the key offensive upside option for the Phillies in 2013. I do not see a significant impact guy available in the OF either (no Hamilton please).

lorecore: Exactly right, Phillies shouldn't be holding positions for anyone on their farm if they want to compete. Unfortunatly, all that's really available is stop gap measures at 3rd anyway, unless they go after Headley.

Before today Asche's strike out rate in AFL was 28.2% 11 ks - 39ab. This in a hitters league.

On a totally unrelated topic, why is Darrin Ruf playing first base in Venezuela?

Does anyone remember the link between which league wins the WS, and which party wins the presidency? It used to be pretty accurate. Maybe that will give me a rooting interest, although most every rooting interest has lost this month.

howard, utley and rollins are all declining fast.... PHILS need offense at 3b ASAP!

Feliz wasnt the greatest hitter but he did hit a few Homeruns and more than a few clutch hits. Was above average as a defender. His contract was a fair deal. I would be OK with it if we found another Feliz for next year. I know he didnt get on base a ton but if memory serves me correct he had a decent RISP and seem to get that clutch hit.

Frank: Because they have a lockdown left fielder named Michael Martinez.

The failure of the Phils in 2012 was not a failure of offense; it was a failure of pitching and defense.

When the Phils won 102 games in 2011, they had a middle-of-the-pack NL offense; no difference in 2012.

One strong addition to the rotation in 2013 should restore the Phils to pitching supremacy even if Halladay does not bounce back.

For those worried about the impact on the Phils' payroll of adding another stud pitcher, ask yourselves this question: how does the incremental cost in salary and luxury tax compare to the increased amount of the TV contract the Phils can negotiate if they again can field an elite team?

derekcarstairs: That's exactly the question the FO needs to ask themselves. The Phillies will lose themselves a ton of money if the '13 team craps the bed. TV ratings from '12 should -- should -- let them know the fans are only going to tune in to watch not just a winner, but a World Series contender.

Frank: because the Dominican and Venezuelan winter leagues are not developmental leagues and they aren't affiliated with MLB. Its a fiercely competitive league where the teams play to win. So if a MLB team sends a prize prospect south for the winter to get some extra work and the player hits .100 for 2 weeks, his butt gets nailed to the bench they don't care who he is or who he plays for. So, if the team thinks Ruf at 1st gives them the best defensive alignment, that's where they will play him.

Torii Hunter- 2 YR/$18-20M. Right fielder.

Angel Pagan- 4 YR/$32M. CF.

Eric Chavez - 1 YR/$3M. Platoon with Frandsen at 3rd.

Brown, Mayberry, and Ruf battle it out for LF.

How's that sound?

Series = Over.

No! Not in the head!

I'm worried about Fister.

if the pitcher wore a helmet, it would go flying off his head on every follow through.

I think they should have taken him out. Hard to think he's not going to have some damage from that.

i agree, Scott. he should be examined and monitored for intra-cranial pressure. a blood clot is also a possibility.

SF's going to win the series, aren't they. I have a feeling. I know it's early, but things like Verlander's outing, Panda's 3 HRs, and Fister taking one in the noggin make my superstitious self feel like the stars are aligned for a SF WS.

MG: That would benefit fans- those on the waiting list for season tickets and those looking for one game tickets. Ticket brokers buy large chunks of tickets hoping to recoup the money later on and if they don't get used then they don't. Most of those tickets that aren't bought are then given out as business comps and written off. There was an article about this practice in Rolling Stone some time ago as it relates to concerts and they said the problem spreads into sports and other venues. So it makes sense that the Cubs would look to give their fans the ability to get tickets and get guaranteed money from season ticket holders who would have a bigger propensity to walk into a stadium and snap up a lot of merchandise.

Yes, bullit! That concerns me, too.

Torii Hunter- 2 YR/$18-20M. Right fielder.

Angel Pagan- 4 YR/$32M. CF.

Eric Chavez - 1 YR/$3M. Platoon with Frandsen at 3rd.

Brown, Mayberry, and Ruf battle it out for LF.

How's that sound?

Posted by: GM-Carson | Thursday, October 25, 2012 at 08:23 PM

_____________________________________

Write it down GM....I pretty much agree with this word for word. I was about to come here and say that I saw Hunter is hoping for a two year deal. I wonder if you could maybe get him to go 2/16 or 2/17 and save a million to use elsewhere.

How can Sandoval be athletic enough to snag that one? Darn.

"TV ratings from '12 should -- should -- let them know the fans are only going to tune in to watch not just a winner, but a World Series contender."

Appears that 2012 would tell them the opposite. They dropped to 7th in all of MLB when the product was far worse than 7th. So yes if the team spends the vast majority of the season under .500 then six teams in the entire country will have better ratings than the Phillies. The will have historically high numbers when the team plays well and solid numbers otherwise. I think if the team contends for the NL East and plays entertaining ball next year they will again be at the top of the ratings pile. It isn't as if they won the last 4 WS and then finished a game out and the rating plummeted to 24th.

Also they were 7th in audience share but 4th in overall viewers. So people are watching just not at the amazing rate they were the year before, when they didn't win a world series.

Yeah, I'm afraid the Giants hoist the trophy again this year without having to break a sweat.

And, I'm SO glad that they have the market cornered on "interesting" and "colorful" closers with asinine beards. Maybe they can spend the rest of the game talking to Romo.

But I do agree that spending will benefit the Phillies. They are in position to grow their fanbase and revenues beyond Red Sox levels. If they keep investing, which they have thus far, in the on feild product, they stand to to make even more money.

Now with halos not wanting tori back. Def see them on him. Pagan not sure bc I don't think they will offer hunter arb. Giants want to lock him up more now. Need to keep tabs on other third basemen that might not get offered arb.

I also like those moves...FWIW.


Pandas are renowned for their reflexes.

If the Angels keep Bourjos, they'll let Hunter walk. If not, they could always trade for Bourjos.

The upside is there are plenty of CFs available and that corner OFs tend to cost a bit less.

Rube could and should sign 2 solid OF bats this off-season...the offense definitely needs the boost.

i don't mind that romo is a hotdog. it's the self-promotion and attempt to create a romo brand that irks me, just a bit.

I dont think there's a team I hate more than the Giants at this point.

The more I watch the Giants, the more I dislike them. Unfortunately, the Tigers are playing tight and pressing. First walk in the sixth inning against a pitcher who has been awful this postseason?? That sums it up. Once a team starts pressing like that, it is very hard to get them to stop. I would love to be wrong, but I think the Giants win the series easily.

I'm impressed with Fister, but I'm still concerned that he be monitored for effects of head trauma.

Does anyone else think that Fister resembles Cole in some of the mannerisms and bulldogedness he displays out there? Not to mention the gangly and lanky physical look.......just sayin.

Truth Injection- perhaps we turned a new leaf tonight? Forget our ridiculous checkered past, and move on knowing that we're both very passionate about the Phillies...sound good?

It's okay if you still hate me, but I think it would be a better world if we more "frenemies".

ugh. not liking how this game/series is shaping up.

I never understand why they don't just pick up the balls near the line and get an out.

Anyone else really hoping that someone steals a base? I really would like a free taco...

Man, the Tigers are just whalin-n-failin.....

The Phils should sign Melky, who should be adequately scared straight. Buy low for a change.

Why would anyone throw Pence anything CLOSE on 0-2? Ridiculous.

Fox is really trying hard to recast Pence as a scrappy, emotional leader when really he's a doofus. That wasn't a good at bat. He swung at 3 balls and fouled off a hanger. The guy is awful.

Getting Melky would be as dumb as dumb gets.

Best post in GM Carson's history on BL. I like every idea, especially Hunter and Pagan (those are the exact two I'd want for the OF).

Chavez is interesting and would be a bit of a risk, but I guess the term 'risk' is extremely when the only risk would be taking ABs from Galvis.

Bullpen needs an arm. Other than that, I'd like that off-season.

This postseason has really gone downhill since the division series.

gobay- yeah, as if the Giants couldn't be any more repugnant, now the horrible and horribly awkward Pence is going to be remembered as some bizarre hero despite sucking two postseasons in a row. Only consolation is that the Phils won't be the ones overpaying to keep him.

Pagan is raising his price. I do not like him that much. From an output/price perspective I'd like to see Victorino back but I think the Phillies have had enough of him.

I do like Torii Hunter since he could also play CF. Thought Angels would keep him though.

Not too happy about it but I'd probably go with a Mayberry platoon with either Nix/Schierholtz then give Brown full time AB.

Spend some money on Broxton or League (or try cheap Madson). Hope Bastardo improves with DeFratus and Diekman in the wings.

If Phillies are willing to spend even more, sure get another quality starting pitcher. Never hurts.

gobaystars: That's a creative way to spin a full 40% drop in local TV viewership from '11 to '12. I'm sure JW knows how many page views sites such as this one lost, too. Point being, a lot of people will simply walk away & find other ways in which to spend their money & time if the Phillies aren't in the thick of it. The FO cannot afford to take viewership & attendance for granted.

Pence already has as many Runs, Hits & RBI in 7 World Series ABs as Burrell did in 27 World Series ABs.

The original post said that the 2012 numbers show that people won't watch a team that isn't a WS winner. That isn't true. The 09-11 teams did not win the WS and they had amazing TV numbers. The 2012 team played awful unwatchable baseball for the better part of the year and still put up better than respectable numbers. Your original post is very very far from reality. It they keep finishing around .500 then yes ratings will be low and will certainly fall below waht they were this season. If they contend again, we can all expect out of this world ratings to return. Keep some perspective. The drop in ratings put them at them in the upper fifth. I don't want to ruin your "franchis in ruin" fantasy but it's the truth.
I agree with the general point that it would benefit the organization to spend because the fan base has shown that they will attend and watch a winner in record breaking numbers. So far ownership has done a good job reinvesting revenue into the team and all parties have benefitted.

The original post said that the 2012 numbers show that people won't watch a team that isn't a WS winner.

Incorrect.

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