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Tuesday, October 09, 2012

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To be fair, at best, his ceiling is probably something like Craig Monroe.

Pettibone just adds to the organization's pretty good depth with regard to starting pitchers in the higher levels. Kendrick and Worley have been the only two SPs to come out of the system over the last few years. You would hope that one of Cloyd, Pettibone, Martin, Morgan and May would stick in the rotation somehow over the next 2 years.

Repost:

KAS, how about we just stop letting in more unworthy teams. Look at the records of the teams that got in this year.

4 teams with 94+ wins, and the Cardinals who scraped by with 88 wins. The fact that Phillies actually had a legitimate shot at making the postseason down the stretch elucidates my point perfectly.

I can't wait until the days when multiple sub .500 teams make the playoffs, just like basketball and hockey.

Fatalotti: There will always be "unworthy" teams in the playoffs unless you want to go back to just two divisions. But if that's the case, that means you're some 73-year old man who still pines for the days of the Brooklyn Dodgers.

KAS, I'm 26.

That 2 division plan was awesome...like in 1993 when the 103 win Giants sat at home in October because they didnt win their division.

I'll believe Ruf can't hit in the big leagues when he shows he can't hit in the big leagues. Similarly, I'll believe Dom Brown was deserving of his status as a top prospect once he begins playing like it.

Salisbury interview with Chase - Apparently, Chase was taken by surprise when he got to spring training and discovered his knees weren't holding up.

http://www.csnphilly.com/10/08/12/Watch-Utley-talks-2012-season-knee-condi/landing.html?blockID=786109&feedID=693

Fata, refer to JW's post about Ruf and you'll learn that you're old at age 26, so you could very well be an old fuddy-duddy. (Kidding - because if that makes you old, I'm ancient or dead.)

Fatalotti: So you want MLB to go back to two divisions? Are you suggesting that "unworthy" teams only get in if they are a wild card team?

For example, the Detroit Tigers would have finished in 4th place in either the AL West or the AL East and they'll likely be in the ALCS. Are they unworthy?

I hope Ruf becomes something in the bigs because the minute he regresses, all the mouthbreathing fans will be on him for not performing up to their expectations. I am also interested to see how he performs with constant playing time in LF during winter ball. Should be something to follow.

Watching that video tells me that Salisbury and possibly Utley aren't really clued in to what his problem is. I'll give Utley the benefit of the doubt because he was merely accepting Salisbury's premise. But, he didn't suffer from not playing enough in Spring Training. He wasn't ready in Spring Training because his program during the Winter wasn't sufficient. Either that, or there's no way for him to be ready for the start of a season. And that's pretty hard to believe, considering that he played almost every day the second half of the season. Getting in shape for baseball, especially when you have a chronic problem, isn't about playing baseball. It's about physical conditioning. Playing baseball gets you your timing and brushes up your gameday skills, but nobody uses baseball as exercise because it really isn't the kind of exercise that builds you up.

Or perhaps he just has a weird condition that can flare up with little to no warning?

KAS, there's no way to make sure you have the "right" teams, but you can stop allowing lesser teams in, but not expanding the playoffs. I was quite content with last year's process.

Fata - We could go through the Braves and Cards schedules to make some subjective determination over which was tougher. I'm not really sure the Braves were that much better than the Cards. He Cards are hardly mediocre. But in the end it's just one year. Some years a team with a harder road and a worse record will be given a shot at the playoffs because of the new format. And then, unlike other years, the division winner will be given the current advantages which everyone seems to support. No format can be completely fair.

Is dumb that they rushed it this year and went 2-3 instead of 2-1-2. But next year that won't happen.

Sophist, http://www.baseball-reference.com/ has a rating system called SRS (simple rating system), which takes into account run-differential and strength-of-schedule.

It is spot on with how he ranks all of the teams within their division, with one notable exception; the Orioles.

It also has the Braves at a .5 and the Cards at a .4.

Look, I don't know that Braves are that much better than the Cardinals, but for whatever reason, they won 94 games, and were eliminated by a team that won 88 and should have been sitting at home.

It just seems like a broken system.

Fatalotti: If you're saying you're okay with 4 teams, then I'd argue 5 make it better by making it MORE difficult for the unworthy teams to advance far in the playoffs. Again, you're giving an advantage to the #1 seed. How is that a bad thing?

If you're saying you don't want any wild card teams then you are arguing we should go back to two divisions.

KAS, you're not giving the division team an advantage beyond would they would have had last year, i.e. getting to game 1 of the NLDS. When the Nationals started game 1 of the NLDS, they were in the exact same position they would have been in with last year's format (home field notwithstanding).

the team that gets an advantage they never would have otherwise enjoyed is the Cardinals, who would have been home.

The new format didn't actually do anything for the division winner, it just knocked the 1st Wild Card team down a peg. Yes, now you have more incentive to win your division (which is a good thing), but you don't actually enjoy any special advantages for it that you wouldn't have enjoyed in the prior format.

Of course you have an advantage. The Wild Card team has to use a top starter for the play-in game while the top seed has a better opportunity to set up its rotation. How is that not an advantage?

No, the new WC has whatever disadvantages that come with playing an extra game previous to the division series. For instance, the Braves lined up Medlen so he wouldn't be available for the early games in the division series had the Braves won.

And, again, you're using one year to say its broken. Many years, I bet, teams with similar but not identical records will face off in th 1 game playoff and the result will seem more fair. Records are not a perfect way of deciding he better team of the second place finishers. Schedules are imbalanced and many times we'll be talking about a 1 or 2 game difference.

Sophist: "Records are not a perfect way of deciding he better team of the second place finishers. Schedules are imbalanced and many times we'll be talking about a 1 or 2 game difference."

Not to mention some teams struggle early in the year due to injuries, rookies, etc. and may in fact be the better team come playoff time despite a worse record.

Is dumb that they rushed it this year and went 2-3 instead of 2-1-2. But next year that won't happen.

Posted by: Sophist

~~~


Don't you mean 2-2-1?

Jesse Biddle #10 prospect in FSL. Adam Morgan #12 prospect in FSL.

Looks like the scouts who ranked them felt they were pretty close in prospect status. I suppose some BLers will now jump all over these know nothings because these two pitchers can't possibly be seen as comparable.

For the record, Biddle IS a slightly better prospect due to age considerations alone. But as we've learned lately, age isn't everything when ranking minor leaguers. Or have we?

Yes, you're right. There may be a slight advantage to the division winner in terms of the WC team having to use a top starter, but it doesn't always line up that the WC team will even have their top starter available. I submit the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who had to play a play-in game to make the postseason, and started Josh Fogg.

I don't think this possible (but not at all guaranteed) advantage makes up for the fact that you are letting in yet another team, and the more often you let in another team, the more likely you are to be letting in a weaker team.

As far as this year's Cardinals vs. Braves, I think it's a pretty safe provisional assumption that the Braves had a tougher schedule, given that the worst team in their division was still much better than 2 teams in the Cardinals division, each division had an equally strong top team (Reds/Gnats), and each team had a .500 level middle of the road team (Brewers/Phillies). The Cardinals got to play the Pirates, too, who weren't much better than the Mets.

So the Cardinals basically had our division, except replace 18 games against the Marlins with 32 games against the Cubs/Astros.

I can't prove that their schedule was easier, but I have no problem accepting it as true.

aksmith - Amaro alluded to about a month ago that the issue wasn't that the training program wasn't rigorous it. It was.

The issue was that he took some time off between Oct and the holidays. Amaro said this year that Utley didn't plan on taking off as much time & was still going to do a fairly extensive amount of stretching exercises daily.

Getting back to the topic of the post... so far, the Phillies have had two starting pitchers on the list: Biddle and Pettibone. There's also a handful of other marginal (or better depending on your perspective) starting pitcher prospects: Martin, Morgan, May, Cloyd. After that, some fringe prospects.

So how many of those actually make an impact in the Phillies rotation eventually?

Well, as long as we're saying that the new format is unfair to the better teams, I move to declare the 2011 Phillies World Champions. Obviously, the best of 5 format of the NLDS wasn't adequate to allow the cream to rise to the top - since, The 102-win team lost to the 90-win team. ;)

Still be really surprised if Utley is on the field next year more than 120 G anyways. He gets into a fair amount of contact at 2B and gets hit by his share of pitches.

Hopefully the Phils are slating him to be at max 130-135 G player with at least one off-day a week.

Cholly clearly likes to put him in the lineup everyday (can't blame him given the alternatives) but he's going to have to get some off-days on Sundays and during the week especially if there isn't a scheduled off day.

Whoops... should say Phillies have had three starting pitchers on the list, moving Morgan from the marginal to the listed.

Hasn't gotten mentioned by the press (I haven't seen it) but how the Phils' medical staff/training staff handles this offseason with Howard, Utley, Halladay, Chooch, and Worley to name a few (maybe even add Brown to that list given his knee pain) is the single most important thing this offseason. Even more important that the moves that Amaro makes.

If the Phils don't have Howard/Utley/Halladay on the field and relatively productive, this is a .500 at best and a non-contender.

MG - I think that is exactly the point. Utley needs to be constantly working on his physical conditioning in the offseason. If you've ever had a cranky joint, you know that moving it more often is important, even if it's painful. The only way to keep joints that can't be fixed surgically lubricated and functional is motion.

Resting more than few days is rarely helpful.

That's why I suggested a few months ago that Utley buy stock in whoever produces Ibuprofen and play Winter Ball. Yes, not a serious suggestion. But I truly hope he doesn't take time off this Winter.

If the Phils don't have Howard/Utley/Halladay on the field and relatively productive, this is a .500 at best and a non-contender.

Posted by: MG | Tuesday, October 09, 2012 at 12:55 PM


~~~

Hmmm, that's a curious stance. What brings you to this conclusion?

I heard Utley say exactly that a few weeks ago. He said he would have virtually no down time this winter. Apparently he didn't know that would cause problems last year.

Perhaps Utley staying active all winter will allow his knees to remain healthy, but Utley is famous for wearing down late in the season. If he's active all winter, instead of wearing down in late August, he may wear down in late June.

***Apparently he didn't know that would cause problems last year.***

FWIW, rest time is usually the best cure for 99% of injuries. Now that he knows what is wrong and has a good PT program to handle the condition, I dont expect him to miss 50+ games a year. He's not gonna play 155+ either but he should be a full-time guy.

***If he's active all winter, instead of wearing down in late August, he may wear down in late June.***

There's a huge, huge difference between daily PT exercises to keep a joint strong and playing baseball. One keeps you healthy while the other drains you down if you play like Utley does.


Jesse Biddle #10 prospect in FSL. Adam Morgan #12 prospect in FSL.

Looks like the scouts who ranked them felt they were pretty close in prospect status. I suppose some BLers will now jump all over these know nothings because these two pitchers can't possibly be seen as comparable.

For the record, Biddle IS a slightly better prospect due to age considerations alone. But as we've learned lately, age isn't everything when ranking minor leaguers. Or have we?

Posted by: aksmith | Tuesday, October 09, 2012 at 12:48 PM


smitty, I'm confused at this post. Biddle is the better prospect because he is younger and outperformed Morgan in High A this year. Morgan got rewarded with a promotion to AA because he is older and presumably more polished. Having two pitching prospects rank that high is a very good thing when you take into account those who are ranked above them. Austin Wright was also voted top pitcher in the FSL this year and wasn't ranked. He profiles as a lefty out of the pen unless he can refine his pitches moving forward.

This is same Baseball America that told us Domonic Brown was one of the game's best prospects.

NEPP, I hope you're right.

Baseball America skews very heavily towards toolsy athletes over polished baseball skills.

Thus, guys like Dom Brown get ranked very high by them. Hell, they even liked Hewitt when he was first drafted.

Don't know how much down time he had last winter between October and the holidays, but seems strange that taking some time to rest-after playing the last half of the 2011 season coming off the injury-would put him so far behind the eight ball for 2012. I'm not a Doc, though.

Hopefully, they have the routine down for this off season.

Utley is a 130-game player because he gets hit by pitches a lot?

Ok. I would think it has more to do with his chronic knee condition.

It depends on what he's doing on the down-time. If he was just vegging out on the couch instead of doing strengthening exercises, it totally makes sense that it'd put him significantly behind. My guess is that he basically stayed off stressing his knees all winter long and they felt fine so he thought he was good to go. Then ST hit and they immediately flared up.

I'm wondering where the farm system as a whole will be ranked. Gaining a few guys from the Thome, Vic and Pence trades may help with a small bump. Roman Quinn is a guy who BA will love. If I was a betting man, I think the ranking will stay about the same with the lack of blue chip prospects within the system.

RedBurb - I don't think Biddle actually outperformed Morgan in A ball. Unless you think W-L record is about the starting pitcher. I think we know that a lot of the W-L record is beyond the starter's control. They were very similar. And Morgan then performed well at AA ball in a hitters' league and stadium.

Morgan is older and more polished. Misses a lot of bats. Is a very good prospect. But back during the season, I posted that i thought they were not that far apart and got pilloried. I felt that when I'd seen Morgan, he was actually the better pitcher. Of course, Biddle is younger and will need time to get to where Morgan is.

Just saying that those who thought that was a crazy statement, and you know who you are, should be jumping all over the dopes at BA. Of course they are wrong all the time. It's impossible not to be with prospects. But I figure that those who are always feeding us the BA line as though they wrote it themselves should be telling us how stupid BA is for agreeing with my earlier sentiment. You know, because I can't possibly be right.

Redburb: My guess? 12th to 18th, somewhere in that range.

***I'm wondering where the farm system as a whole will be ranked***

I'd bet we're in the low to mid 20s instead of upper 20s. Despite some guys taking steps forward, other guys that were previously highly ranked completely fell apart (Brody Colvin comes to mind)

So maybe a small step forward thanks to the additions of guys like Joseph.

Brown deserves another season before he is labeled a 'bust' but it was kind of depressing that the best thing about his season this year was that he made enough progress that he isn't a sheer liability in LF/RF.

If Brown is going to be a productive regular, it is because of his offense. Not going to be because of his defense or baserunning skills.

His line the last 2 seasons (.240/.325/.394 or .718 OPS) with just 10 HRs in 422 PAs isn't going to cut as a full corner OF.

Real progress for him next year would be say .260/.345/.420 with 13-15 HRs. Probably a decent number of fans who will still be disappointed in that probably but it would show me his at least capable of hitting enough to be considered as a full-time starter.

smitty - Ok I got ya. I don't even look at minor league pitcher's W-L record. I guess I should've said arguably before outperformed. I think Morgan is on more of a fast track than Biddle due to the fact that Morgan did play college ball. The FSL is a notorious pitchers league though so the fact that Morgan kept up his performance in the hitter friendly EL is a good sign. I'm cheering for both of those guys to hit their ceilings.

KAS - I think they'll be in the lower side of that range, probably around 16-18 (which might be too optimistic).

RedBurb - I agree with you. Think both will be good. And of course, I root for every Phillies minor leaguer because I want to see good Phillies major leaguers. When they win, it contributes to happiness. And vice versa.

Very bearish on the system there NEPP? I don't share that same view but I can understand it. Having no blue chippers and seeing Colvin take a huge step back this year along with May's struggles could be reasons why there would be no movement.

Keith Law ranks top 10 players he's most interested in watching during the Arizona Fall League but, alas, Darin Ruf doesn't make the list. In fact, no Phillies do (Jarred Cosart is 7th and the highest ranked pitcher). Cody Asche merits a mention in the "Other prospects to watch."

" I dont expect him to miss 50+ games a year. He's not gonna play 155+ either but he should be a full-time guy."

Bingo!

Iceman - It increases his chances of getting hurt especially with a broken bone on his hand/arm.

Something that has happened before, Utley lead MLB in 2007-09 in HBP, and the only reason he hasn't since then is due to the time he has missed.

Utley basically gets plunked 20-25 times a year since he isn't willing to move out of the way at times & stands close to the plate.

I think it would literally kill K Law to admit he's interested in watching Ruf or Asche play in AZ.

KAS - Ruf is playing in South America though right?

Redburb: Ah... right, he's not in the AFL. He's in Venezuela. My bad.

Bedrosian's Beard: To be fair... Ruf isn't in the AFL as I mistakenly mentioned. Also, he included Asche as an honorable mention. I also don't think Asche is one of the top 10 prospects in the AFL this year.

Can't these guys like Asche and Ruf just work a little harder? There is a fair amount of coin at stake.

Someone might want to tell Ruf that he need not be a prospect to become a well paid ML ballplayer.

You're right, Ruf's not in AZ. KL dodged a bullet.

KL dodged a bullet.

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Tuesday, October 09, 2012 at 02:09 PM

Haha, else he would have faced your unmitigated wrath?

No, he might have had to say something positive about Ruf.

As a professed non-believer in Ruf, let me say for the record that I was pretty impressed with his limited showing thus far in the majors. His work in the Winter League may be more about defense than hitting, but hopefully this success can carry over into next spring! And PLEASE protect your hamate bone!

Fatalotti, you can't judge the process of the new playoff system by a singular outcome like 2007. That's like saying "I left my house with the gas on one time and it didn't explode, therefore it should be safe to do so all the time."

See, you need to judge the decision based on long term probabilities. Just because a situation turned out a certain way once doesn't mean it is statistically valid over time.

Just ribbin' ya, old fellow.

Ruf is certainly an intriguing guy. He reminds me a bit of Len Matuszek who came up for a cup of coffee in '81 at the age of 26. He was blocked rather emphatically by Pete Rose. He was a mediocre firstbaseman whom they also used to throw into left field occasionally with predictable results. He wasn't too bad of a hitter with some decent power, but he didn't really get a chance to play too much until he was 30 or so. Around that time the Phils cut bait with him and he bounced around a bit. He spent some time with the Dodgers and never really amounted to much. I always thought that given a chance at the right time he may have become a pretty potent offensive player but his lack of a glove at any position really hurt him. I think I remember some stories after he left that seemed to intimate that he wasn't very well liked in the clubhouse but I can't be sure about that. He was a lefthanded hitter and I'm pretty sure he didn't almost win a AA triple crown, but otherwise there are a lot of paralells there. Hope Ruf's career turns out better. Some of the older guys on here may be able to fill in some of the blanks in this story I presume.

There are two clips now of Jimmy Rollins on MLB Network. One is about his nomination for the Roberto Clemente award. (Go vote for him, people!) The other is about the Coco Crisp error and the right way to catch balls. I found that one pretty interesting; here's the link:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?topic_id=7417714

"See, you need to judge the decision based on long term probabilities. Just because a situation turned out a certain way once doesn't mean it is statistically valid over time."

Same thing holds true for these year's Cards/Braves matchup. Conceding for argument's sake that the Braves were more deserving, doesn't meet in that in the long run it's a worse system.

Gtown: "I'll believe Ruf can't hit in the big leagues when he shows he can't hit in the big leagues. Similarly, I'll believe Dom Brown was deserving of his status as a top prospect once he begins playing like it."

You should gamble on sports, just pick the winner after they win, genius.

What would it take to sign Ichiro next year? Certainly not the player he was, but still plays good defense and makes contact. Can he still play center? Would he be cheaper than Vic?

Mick O using an argument against me that I've used on here multiple times. I like it. :)

Sophist, my argument is that if every year, you let in a 5th team (the 2nd WC), over the long term, you're going to have let in less worthy/deserving teams. This year is a strong illustration of that, and you're right, other years might produce 2 Wild Card teams that are nearly evenly matched, but I highly doubt that it will happen more than 15% of the time that the 2nd Wild Card will be equal or greater than the 1st Wild Card team.

Most of the time, the 2nd Wild Card team will be a team that is not as good as the first, but will be given a shot at the WS because of the new system.

This is the crux of my disdain of any playoff system change that allows entrance to more teams. That's all.

Fatalotti: But OF COURSE letting in an additional team generally means letting in one less worthy than the other 4. No one is arguing against that (although in some years, that won't be the case).

However, that's not the point of the extra wild card. The point of the extra wild card is to ensure winning the division actually means something. It's designed to prevent two teams from the same division laying down at the end of the season because it doesn't matter. It also gives the #1 seed an even greater advantage than they had in the past.

And those improvements far outweigh any negatives derived from a "less worthy" team making the playoffs.

Unfortunately its all about the Benjamins. Which is why Phils phans have to suffer through a home opener with KC next year. The best playoff scenario if you really want to make winning the division matter and avoid playing the most important games if the year on snow you would have a 3 game playoff between the 2nd and 3rd division leaders in wins and then a 7 gamer between that winner and the number 1 seed. But, never gonna happen.

Biggest thing in Ruf's favor is simply the raw power numbers he hit.

Now that we are clearly in the post-steroid ERA (still cheaters I'm sure but let's just say it is likely a lot less prevalent), hitting 35-40 HRs in a season again really means something.

Something only 9 MLB players did this year. Only 8 in '11 and and 6 in '10. In 2000, 27 hitters did. In '01, 24 did. Power has become a precious commodity again because it is in relatively limited supply.

If I was an AL team and I thought Ruf had a shot to hit 20-25 HRs as a 1B/DH (primarily a DH) as a regular with respectable enough offensive numbers, I would really try to pry him loose from the Phils this offseason. His swing is custom made for a park that plays well to RH pull hitters.

Fenway and the new Yankee Stadium instantly jumps to mind.

Power in general is at a premium in this era, and I think WAR/wOBA/etc. should start accounting for it(or it has already, i have no idea).

KAS, I mostly support the 2nd WC, but let's not kid ourselves: the "point" is to increase the number of teams with a shot at the playoffs, and hence drive up revenues through increasing fan involvement. The heightened importance of winning the division is a nice justification or secondary reason, but even a modest cynic/realist would have to admit that the principal goal is to give hope to increase the number of potential contenders (which is a laudable goal, imo).

Ruf's season didn't impress the scouts? I bet it would have if he were with the Yankees organization.

fumphis: If that's the case, what took them so long? This push for the extra wild card actually began after the Red Sox and Yankees coasted to playoff spots with no care as to who won the division. Obviously money plays a role... it'd be naive to suggest otherwise. But it sure made my August a lot more enjoyable and that's a good thing!

lorecore: You should socialize in a setting which doesn't require literacy as its most basic requirement.

NEPP: "Baseball America skews very heavily towards toolsy athletes over polished baseball skills.

Thus, guys like Dom Brown get ranked very high by them. Hell, they even liked Hewitt when he was first drafted."

Exactly right. BA sneers at baseball skills. It's all tools, all the time.

Brandon Phillips is having a great series.

FWIW, Sickels preliminary Top 50 pitching prospects for 2013 has Biddle at #24, May at #32 and Pettibone and Morgan not mentioned at all.

Brandon Phillips is one of those guys you love on your team, & loathe when he's w/ any other team.

clout: What's your read on that? Younger prospects with higher ceiling because of stuff vs. more projectable lower ceiling prospects?

He also listed his Top 50 hitting prospects. There are no Phillies on that list but Travis D'Arnaud is #9 and Jonathan Singleton is #15.

KAS: "Younger prospects with higher ceiling because of stuff vs. more projectable lower ceiling prospects?"

Absolutely.

KAS, we'll have to agree to disagree. I don't think the benefits outweigh the negatives.

Fatalotti: I am very sympathetic to your POV on the added wild card, but far more unjust in my mind is the 5-game series. All series should be 7 games.

Fatalotti: I am very sympathetic to your POV on the added wild card, but far more unjust in my mind is the 5-game series. All series should be 7 games.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, October 09, 2012 at 06:14 PM

I agree with this.

Pence has been a huge zero for the Giants this year.

Fatalotti: That's fine. I'm puzzled that baseball fans would be satisfied with a system that treats a wild card the same as a division winner and a system that encourages a team in 2nd place to lay down at the end of the season even if they have a chance to win the division.

It would seem the Phillies share BA's values system.

Pence sucks, except when he doesn't.

GTown, Pence is a good baseball player, but he posted a .671 OPS with the Giants this year, and hasn't done anything in this series.

If I'm the Giants, I'm not terribly excited about having him around next year.

That was a nice catch by Pence. We all know those aren't a given. Good for him!

Homer Bailey, to me, is a quintessential baseball name. Like Grady Sizemore. These just sound like ballplayers, circa 1920 perhaps, but they're great baseball names in my opinion.

Quickie Quiz: Who was the last Phillies starting thirdbaseman to have an OPS above .700?

Fatalotti: I'll make no excuses for his second half, as it flat stunk. On the other hand, I felt SF a poor fit for him to begin with. All things considered, I'd still prefer to have held onto Pence for 1 more year w/ the option of trading mid-season '13. Dom does nothing for me.

Polly in 2010.

I'm going with Dobbs in 07, if he played enough to count over Abe "No Mercy" Nunez.

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