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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

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If Quinn can stick at SS, he's a fantastic prospect.
If he has to move to CF, he's a very good prospect.

Even though Amaro gave away a lot of quality prospects it is nice to see our farm system rebound a little bit with some exciting prospects.

Pretty cool series they put together, its good to see prospects compared to just their own league, so it takes away the outside factor of "proximity" to the majors in the evaluation.

Biddle will be an unanimous(or close to it) #1 from all the minor league reports on the Phillies' system, but its pretty wide open after that. Quinn could easily grab the #2 spot in some lists.

Let the record show that JW had Quinn in his Top 10 Phils prospect list ahead of BA's rating.

Quinn is the rare prospect who's very toolsy (thus BA loves him) but also shows some baseball skills (i.e. 9.1% walk rate shows good plate judgment for a 19-year-old & stealing 30 out of 36 attempts shows he's got that skill as well.)

I'm feeling good about the Quinn pick and I kept Aumont very high on my list, too. Aumont made me look pretty smart in his September audition.

Position players who could be solid prospects (some more solid than others):

Roman Quinn SS
Maikel Franco 3B
Tommy Joseph C
Cody Asche 3B
Carlos Tocci OF
Mitch Walding 3B
Sebastian Valle C
Larry Greene 1B/OF
Darin Ruf 1B/OF
Tyson Gillies OF
Cesar Hernandez 2B

Given the high number of pitching prospects and the derth of position prospects (particularly infielders) the Phillies have had in recent years, it's nice to see at least some hope in this area.

Is there anyway to avoid the inevtiable Jimmy Rollins comparison (undersized African-American switch-hitting SS out of HS with offensive skills and lots of tools) with Quinn?

Probably not. Let it be known though that by age 19, Rollins was in his second full season of ball and playing at Clearwater. He didn't hit particularly great, but it was already clear that he was a major-leage quality SS. Quinn has a long way to go in that regard.

Do we dare dream of Quinn at SS for the Phils in 2015? That's a pretty quick ascent to the show but certainly not impossible. Maybe Galvis can keep the seat warm for him for a year or two. By then I'm sure Ruf and Asche will each be OPSing north of .900 so the lineup could tolerate his weak bat.

Just returned from AZ. Saw Peoria play twice. We give a report later.
Great place to meet and talk to the players.

Freddy Galvis' development at the plate will play a big role into Quinn's future at SS or the OF. If it becomes clear that Galvis' bat is good enough to go with his tremendous glove, it may give the Phillies incentive to move Quinn to CF.

Of course, Quinn is still a long way off, so there's no need to make that decision now.

KAS: Of those, I like Quinn, Franco and Gillies the best. Walding and Tocci are wildcards (Tocci is so young and far away that it's almost crazy to even consider him).

Joseph is intriguing, but I personally find it darn near impossible to evaluate catching prospects (unless they're Joe Mauer or Matt Wieters, etc. ).

Jack: i've never read/heard any rollins comparisons at all - but good try. Mainly because of the fact you alread brought up: Rollins' defense at SS was always rated highly whereas Quinn still has a lot to work on.

Iorecore: Well, in the heading to this post there was "a dynamic switch hitter in the mold of Jimmy Rollins..."

And I was more just pre-empting the comparisons, which you can understand might seem inevitable.

First pro season:

Rollins: 20 Errors, .906 Fielding Percentage
Quinn: 27 Errors, .911 Fielding Percentage


Young SS tend to have a ton of errors in the minors.

It would be fun to have a traditional lead off hitter again. Quinn looks like an obp guy. Those guys are pretty unique these days.

Jack: Interesting that you list Gillies as one of the players you like the best out of that bunch. Here's why I find it interesting:

1) None of the players from the Cliff Lee 3 will ever do anything for this team. That's what I've been told.

2) His 2011 season was basically lost with just 117 PAs. And his 2012 season was almost half lost with just 339 PAs.

Once he finally started playing regularly at AA, he hit fairly well but walked very little and hasn't shown to be a very effective base stealer. I've got my questions there.

Arizona Fall League update:

Cody Asche
7-20, 4 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K
350/381/550, 931 OPS

Zach Collier
4-16, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 K
250/294/375, 669 OPS

Kyle Simon
0.1 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 7 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 189.00 ERA

Boy, this place sure dies in the offseason...

I think there is plenty reason to hope for Gillies. For him to endure the setbacks of 10-11 and come back with a strong 2012 in AA (.822 OPS) as a full time CF is definitely encouraging.

Lehigh will probably play out another year of emergency call ups like Minimart/Kyle Hudson in CF, so I think Gillies will start in AA and strive for a injury-free season with a Sept call up.

Maybe if the Phillies only sign a stop-gap CF(like Victorino) they go more aggressive with Gillies, get him into AAA from the start and hope he earns a promotion.

KAS: i wish it was the offseason, but unfortunately the season is still going on and the Phillies just aren't allowed to play anymore.

NEPP's point about young SS and errors is a good one, but Rollins was 17 in his first year of pro ball and Quinn was 19. Rollins had much smoother mechanics at a young age.

Still, there no reason to think Quinn won't be able to master SS. Unlike Jason Donald, he certainly has the arm and the range so it's just a matter of footwork, timing and positioning. If he's still making lots of errors in 2 years, then it may be time to rethink.

"Lehigh will probably play out another year of emergency call ups like Minimart/Kyle Hudson in CF"

Actually, screw that. They better put Gillies in CF at Lehigh right from the start.

lorecore: Obviously the Phils saw something in Gillies when they dealt for him, but the legal issues, attitude issues and injury issues have tempered my enthusiasm quite a bit.

Gillies came to the Phils after a great 2009 in high A ball at age 20. He had a .916 OPS (in a notorious hitter's league) and also 44 SB to just 19 CS.

Things have not come together as nicely since the trade. I'm going to guess some of the stolen base issues may be the injuries. He's just 11 for 19 in 103 games in the Phillies organization.

Jimmy Rollins was one of the best fielding short stops in the league at his prime. If Quinn isn't quite as good, I think the Phillies can still live with it. This is the same organization, after all, that allowed Desi Relaford to play the position for years.

Interesting write up on the Minor League run environments written back in 2010.

Worst for hitters: Florida State League (Clearwater)
2nd worst: Gulf Coast League (GCL Phillies)
3rd worst: International League (Lehigh Valley)
4th worst: New York-Penn League (Williamsport)
6th worst: Eastern League (Reading)
9th worst: South Atlantic League (Lakewood)

Of the 19 minor leagues, none of the Phillies teams are in the top half of hitter's leagues and we find ourselves in 5 of the 6 worst hitter leagues.

Just something to keep in mind, I guess.

KAS: If Gillies ever turns into our starting CF one day, I don't think it'll have anything to do with his SB numbers.

numerous posters constantly try to call Reading a "hitter park" too.

Saying a guy is not as good a shortstop as Jimmy Rollins is no problem. A poor man's Jimmy would be just fine. Especially with that OBP in tact. I much prefer following position players through the minors. It seems as if half of the pitchers get hurt at some point and half of them disapear altogether.

lorecore: Perhaps, although part of his value has certainly been his speed.

It's not like he has great power. Just 17 HR in 1446 minor league PAs. And since joining the Phillies organization, he's a 6% walk rate. That's below average at best.

If he can find a walk rate closer to his 2010 season (10%), that will go a long way to easing my concerns.

But if he doesn't have power and doesn't walk enough, he'll have to show some pretty good speed to make it in this league.

jbird: you beat me to it. Jimmy Rollins in the field is one helluva high bar to clear.

Iorecore: Isn't it possible that Reading is a specific hitters' park that happens to be in a much more generally pitcher-friendly league overall?

***numerous posters constantly try to call Reading a "hitter park" too.***

A lot of time, they do that because it is a hitters park compared to Clearwater. That's like saying that Dodger Stadium is a hitters park compared to Petco.

Haven't there been fence adjustments in Reading over the past 3 years?

I need to see Gillies numbers after a full year at AA ball before I declare him anything. All I've seen so far is injuries, attitude problems, and legal problems.

Clout: No adjustments to the fences at Reading. Distance still is: 330, 370, 400, 370, 330 and has been the last three seasons.

clout - I don't think so but I would have to check. They have added outfield seating though. Dimensions are 330 down the lines, 370 in the alleys, and 400 feet in dead center.

R-Phils park though does have a long-standing rep for being a hitter-friendly stadium that is an above-average power park.

MG: It may be the OF seating I'm thinking of. I know there's been some changes.

R-Phils stadium really has changed a lot though over the years. Basically a completely different facility. Really like the upgrades they made & have added.

Glad they never decided to knock it down & relocate it along the Schuylkill River down near Front St as they were thinking about doing over the past 10-15 during the varying inept Reading mayoral regimes.

Add Cameron Rupp and - yes - Kelly Dugan to that list of interesting position prospects.

Will Asche start in AAA?

That was like a Philippe Aumont pitch there.

Dylan Cozens, Zach Green, and Andrew Pullin are all prospects to keep an eye on too -- especially Cozens.

Saw that Yorvit Torrealba became a free agent today. He's a minor leaguer now, but fully expect the Phils to sign a catch-and-throw guy like that to support Galvis / Kratz.

Galvis/Kratz? Did you mean Ruiz/Kratz?

I agree the Phils will look for a scrap heap catching vet for AAA.

Ruiz/Kratz

Wow, HR Descalso! 2-1 STL. This series could easily go 7.

Not Descalso. Matt Carpenter. Brain blip.

Cain has been almost as bad in this year's post-season as he was good in the 2010 post-season.

Hated the sacrifice bunt there, even with the pitcher. You've got 1st and 3rd, one out. The benefit of getting one more guy into scoring position is not remotely worth the downside of putting yourself into a 2-out situation. Let the pitcher swing away. Maybe he gets a hit or maybe a sac fly or RBI ground out.

I generally think Bochy's a strong tactician but that was stupid, and cost them one extra AB to possibly get that run home.

Good, good. I needed McCarver to remind me of how the '08 World Series played out. It plumb slipped my mind.

Question:

I heard Wally Joyner won't be allowed in the dugout during games because MLB has a rule against how many coaches can be in the dugout during games. If we don't have a bench coach why can't Wally be in there? Where is this extra coach coming in that doesn't allow him in there?

If Galvis' bat can play at the ML level (big if), I think you move him to 2B rather than moving Quinn to CF. We will have a hole at 2B before we have a hole at SS. Galvis' best case for this team is an everday 2B. His worst case is a defense-only utility IF.

pb: isn't Mackanin moving to the dugout?

GTown - What did McCarver say about the '08 WS? I've been shuttling kids back and forth.

* *

pb - Because Mick Billmeyer is coming in from the bullpen to the bench to be a catcher's coach.

BAP - Judging from the score, Cain has been pretty good, or at least not bad. I just saw him get a hit, too.

Sorry - meant Billmeyer. I've always confused those two. Mick ... Mack ...

andersog: I think Quinn's estimated arrival time is 2015 at the earliest. Rollins has a vesting option for 2015 that will depend on how healthy he is over the next two seasons. There's a good chance we'll need a new SS for 2015 and that's an aggressive timeline for Quinn.

I'm also reluctant to look at Galvis as anything but SS if he's going to be a regular. That's where a great glove can most easily make up for a weak bat.

GBrett: Yeah, he has pitched well since I made my comment. It's a little trick I've perfected: if a pitcher is struggling early, and I want him to settle down, I just say something bad about him on Beerleaguer and, voila, he settles down. I thought the trick only worked on Phillies pitchers, but apparently it works on Giants pitchers too.

GBrettFan: Turns out Game 5 was interrupted by rain, then completed a couple of days later. Who knew?

Hunter Pence is starting to p*ss me off.

There's no good way to go in this series. If Pence hits it helps the Giants win, which I hate. But if he sucks it helps the Cardinals, which I also hate. It's that time of the season where I'm pretty much Tigers or GTFO.

Pence is in good company. Or would be, if he were on the Yankees. Don't know if they could handle a hitter as undisciplined as he, a "free swinger".

Guess that little trick for pitchers doesn't work on pitchers who are hurt, BAP - or did you forget to employ it when Doc was on the mound this year?

GTown - Ah. I forgot all about Game 5...not. I suppose it was brought up because there's a threat of rain in St. Louis this evening.

GBrettFan: Yup. McCarver assuring us that this game will be played in its entirety, regardless of possible weather interruption. Whatever would we do w/out him?

GBrett: I think the Phillies' pitchers have become immunized to the trick. It doesn't work on them anymore. Just like the Beerleaguer Reverse Jinx doesn't work on the Phillies' offense anymore. Even if you say they're gonna stink it up today, they still stink it up today.

A 19-year old in short-season ball should have absolutely no effect whatsoever on how you build your current major-league roster.

from Rotoworld:

Wallace Matthews and Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com report that the Yankees and Marlins have discussed a possible Alex Rodriguez trade.
It was first reported by Keith Olbermann on his MLB.com "Nerd Blog," and now Matthews and Marchand have confirmed that conversations have indeed taken place between Yankees president Randy Levine and Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria. They describe the initial discussions as "casual," but with the possibility of becoming serious this offseason. The Yankees would obviously have to eat a ton of the $114 million still owed to A-Rod to get a deal done, and Rodriguez has a no-trade clause. But, the third baseman is from Miami and has obviously fallen out of favor in New York. Matthews and Marchand mention the possibility of the Marlins unloading Heath Bell's contract onto the Yanks. Nothing is remotely close to happening anytime soon, but it's something to monitor over the winter.

I wouldn't want any part of A-Rod. It sounds like exactly the kind of deal Miami would make.

Yeah, but why do I imagine him killing the Phillies if he's traded there?


He's on the bench again tonight, as is Granderson. Chavez and Swisher in.

The fear I've had for some time is Stanton ending up in Yankees pinstripes. He would do some serious damage in that bandbox.

So, Quinn's mechanics aren't as good as JRoll's in the minors? How so, exactly? Nah, I'm just kidding, clout. I know you've never seen either of them play in the minors. I haven't seen Quinn either, except on Youtube. He's just learning shortstop, so not a good idea to compare him to anyone who played the position in high school, even. And he's just learning how to switch hit. Considering there are so many things going on there, it's amazing he has done as well as he has. And as for the errors, he is apparently suffering from having very good range. Seems he's getting errors on some balls that other shortstops wouldn't get to.

I agree that Quinn is a longshot for 2015, or to make the majors at all, by virtue of the fact that he's just 19. I'm also not counting on Galvis' hitting at the major league level, though I'd love if he did.

That's why I wouldn't move Quinn anytime soon and I would rather try to use Galvis to fill the sure hole at 2B in 2014 (and likely for significant portions of 2013) than the possible hole at SS in 2015.

If there's another viable succession plan at 2B, then it would make sense to me to let Galvis play out at SS with Quinn as one possible backup plan down the road. But I haven't seen much in the way of other 2B options for the next 1-2 years from within, trade, or free agency. To me, Galvis seems like the most plausible scenario - especially if he seems to have figured out hitting enough to play every day. If he can do that, his defense is good enough to carry him at either position. If not, he won't be our everyday SS either.

Did they postpone the STL-SF game until tomorrow?

A 19-year old in short-season ball should have absolutely no effect whatsoever on how you build your current major-league roster.

What about a 22-year-old in winter ball?

AFL update. Attendance at 2 games attended was less than 200.Sit any where you want.Talking to the players and getting autographs is easy. That's all the good news.
In the games I saw the Phils pitchers were terrible.Simon gave up 8 runs in 1/3 inning . Catchers interference robbed him of another out,as if it would have mattered.
Collier looks too much like Dom Brown on defense for me. Asche is NRPT.Strikes out too much,slow covering bunts and although he may have he didn't show a strong arm.
Joseph caught 1 game . Was surprised at how little he looked,definitely built like a catcher.
Unlike others here I am not a pro scout and it,s a SSS.
Non Phil Billy Hamilton can fly. Was not impressed with his overall game.

Is NRPT a thing?

If this game doesn't start soon, A-Rod might start hitting on his teammates.

That happens in warmups.

Game called on account of...perceived rain.

So Tigers-Yankees is postponed 'til tomorrow afternoon. They are still hoping to finish Cardinals-Giants tonight, though?

aksmith: You really ought to acquaint yourself with scouting reports. These guys do it for a living. You might even learn something. And avoid embarrassing yourself again.

Clout - Oh, so you're copying and pasting a scouting report and acting as if you saw them. You're quite correct. I am now completely embarrassed for you.

Is it raining in Detroit yet?

(I think it is raining in Detroit now.)

Cards up 2 games to 1.

If Quinn is slated for arrival in 2015, that's just in time to grab the starter's job at SS as the Phils and touted as one of there key rebuilding pieces in the post-Amaro era.

Given that the Fish are already projected to be reducing payroll by at least 5-10M next year (if not more), I just don't see how the ARod trade works.

Already have roughly $68M committed to just 8 players (Johnson, Reyes, Nolasco, Bell, Buerhle, Buck, Infante, Dobbs).

ARod is due $29M alone next year. Only way this even begins to work is if the Fish are able to move one or two of their larger salaries and the Yanks are so desperate to get rid of ARod (and under the luxury tax threshold) that they essentially pick up his entire contract for next year.

MLB is simply amazing in their logic on playing baseball in the rain. The NL game has rain in the forecast so they play until it pours , take a 3 hour rain delay, finish the game after the rain stops. OK.

The AL game has rain in the forecast so they refuse to start the game , have a rain delay while there is no rain- not even a tarp on the field , then postpone in a drizzle with some pompous VP of something or other talking about giving the fans a complete baseball experience. Not so good.

Selig showed his incompetence years ago in the LA-Phils play through the downpour playoff game . Cemented his status as a moron by making up new rain out/ suspended game rules on an ad lib basis during the 08 WS. Tonight was just the latest installmentent.

Have integrity Bud, or at least some consistency .

My cynical take on the ALCS postponement? They didn't want to start the game only to have to stop for rain, thereby wasting CC's outing and the Yankees' best chance for a win.

GBrett Fan-
I'm sure NY's input and Detroit's input to the decision were roughly proportionate to the size of their TV markets.

Nice to see some of the Phils prospects getting some love.

Still, they're just prospects...

Galvis continues to tear it up in the VL. May need to move him to the 3-hole to give him a shot at the triple crown.

Reports that Yankees want a-rod gone bad, willing to eat tons of salary. Think Amaro looks into this? He's getting old, but isn't like there are a ton of awesome 3b out there right now.

A-Rod doesn't really count as an awesome 3b option either, anymore. Also, he played 99 games last year and 122 this year. Hasn't topped 18 homeruns or 62 RBI's since 2010. He'll be 38. Plus, I don't want to have to cheer for him, another cheater trying to crawl his way up the record books.

If Baltimore moves Machado back to short, I wonder if JJ Hardy becomes available for pitching help and if he'd play 3rd.

I don't know what it will take to get Headley, But Amaro needs to at least kick the tires on that one. The 3b market is terrible.

I came on to write something similar to Bubba's of 12:33 am.

I said to my wife, why didn't they start the game, try to get it in and then, if the weather didn't cooperate, delay the game and/or have a suspended game? Even though the Phils won in '08, it still burns me at how game 5 was handled. It was a disgrace.

Last night was another page in the book of Selig's Follies. As Bubba says, even if it's "wrong" at least be consistent.

Galvis is gonna be at third. Book it

Headly, in my opinion, would be a great fit for this team. Switch hitter with pretty even splits. He has some power -- not that I think he'll be a 30 HR guy, but I could see him hitting 15-20. Plays pretty decent defense. Strikes out a bit, but can take some walks.

Career:
.273/.351/.418/.769, 115 OPS+

I don't know what it would take to get him, but I'd be willing to give something up for him. He isn't a FA until 2015 and only made $3.475 last year (due for a raise, obviously).

I think MLB made the right decision. Better to move the game to another day then start it and have to stop and postpone it halfway through.

As weak as the 3b market is, I only see 3 teams that would obviously be in on a Headley trade Angels, Yankees and Phillies. All three are aggressive big market clubs with holes at the hot corner.

If it takes, say, Biddle & Dom Brown (or something) is it worth it? I don't see Biddle as untouchable despite being our best prospect. He's a mid to 3rd quartile top 100 guy. Probably fall somewhere in the 40-60 range. We've certainly traded away better prospects. I believe in Brown, but it's easier to replace a corner outfielder than to find a competent 3b.

Quick breakdown of FA options for 3B, OF, & set-up, as the Morning Call sees it:

http://www.mcall.com/sports/baseball/phillies/mc-phillies-offseason-moves-1017-20121017,0,2241675.column

FA & trade options, that is.

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