History in the making, with Mt. Airy at the center

The battle between a potential Triple Crown winner and the best overall statistical producer of this era is being waged in a tiny office in my neighborhood, where Sean Forman of Baseball-Reference.com stewards the controversial and misunderstood WAR stat, which has become the single point of contention among ballot-casting pundits and could spark a historic upset if statistical darling Mike Trout can knock off brick-and-mortar frontrunner Miguel Cabrera for American League MVP. Regardless of the outcome, the fact that Baseball-Reference could move the needle, in a sport this ensconced in tradition, based out of two small rooms above my son’s daycare, is the coolest thing I’ve seen all year. Bravo, Sean. [Read more]

Comments

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

clout: I'll just add these as well.

FIP
2012: 4.33
2011: 4.55

WAR
2012: 1.3 (obviously additional innings helped)
2011: 0.2

LD%
2012: 17.7%
2011: 18.9%

GB%
2012: 46.5%
2011: 45.3%

SIERA
2012: 4.19
2011: 4.45

The peripherals certainly suggest he pitched better in 2012 but not significantly so. To me, the K-rate isn't the most important change... it's what Sophist pointed out, the improvement vs. LHB. THAT is what was needed for KK to grow, not necessarily more Ks (although those are great, too!).

[J. Weitzel]

... aaaannnndddd we're still talking about Kendrick.

[Willard Preacher]

If the AL MVP award is decided by WAR, I'm finding a bunker and a helmet. It's going to get ugly...

[Sil Campusano]

If WAR is the deciding factor, maybe the MVP voters can convince the Cy Young voters to abandon wins as a deciding factor.

[J. Weitzel]

W. Mt. Airy will be invaded by jowly, curmudgeonly sportswriters from the BBWAA wearing Yaz jerseys.

[Sil Campusano]

Assuming they aren't the same people - in which case they can convince themselves.

[bullit]

did the nats ever get to celebrate on the field last night? ricky bo thought it was perfect that the phillies post game high- fiving denied them the opportunity. classy would have been for the phils to retreat quickly and invite them to take the field in front of perhaps their largest crowd of the season.

[GTown_Dave]

This shouldn't even be a debate. Cabrera has had the better season, period. And WAR is utterly useless. Even "Wins", as indicative of relatively nothing as it tends to be, has standards which are universally agreed upon.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm as for advanced metrics, and the advent of SABR statistics, as the next guy.

But as somewhat of a baseball purist, I've gone my entire lifetime never seeing a Triple Crown winner. It blows my mind that the one year it could happen, the guy might not even win MVP, and he'd lose out to the guy also being named Rookie of the Year, and all because the categories to arrive at a Triple Crown winner were essentially debunked via advanced metrics. Just amazing.

[J. Weitzel]

The biggest knock on Cabrera for me is that the AL Central is total crap.

[J. Weitzel]

That said, I'm 98 percent positive Cabrera will be voted MVP. Disagree with Stark and Rosenthal, who said on ESPN the race will be too close to call.

[GTown_Dave]

Last night was 18th largest home crowd of the Nationals' season. The franchise is a joke. The Phillies faced Washington at CBP nine times, every single one of which feat. a larger crowd than DC could muster on the night they clinched their first division title.

[ramsey]

All MVP voters already vote based on WAR (plus an adjustment for playing on a playoff team). They just calculate their own versions, which are generally quite poor.

[johnnysanz3]

Trout plays a more important defensive position and has the stolen bases. Cabrera has Trout beat in everything else, and by a large margin in some stats.

I don't know, I'm kind of torn. I lean towards all those RBIs though...

[Willard Preacher]

I love how JW throws this post up, to discuss what pretty much everyone else on the internet is discussing, JUST to change the topic away from the polarizing enigma that is one Kyle Kendrick. You definitely can't say that BL isn't passionate about young KK...

Well played, JW.

[Willard Preacher]

I figured this Zolecki tweet would be right up BL's alley. Surprised I haven't seen anyone mention it yet...

"The Phillies have hired Bart Braun as Special Assistant to the GM. Braun had formerly been a scout with the Tampa Bay Rays."

[bullit]

thanks for straightening me out, Dave. my point still stands.

[jbird]

If Cabrera wins the Triple Crown, and I hope he does, it'll be the coolest achievement in a long long time.

[Willard Preacher]

yo, game thread.

(let's debate KK some more)

[D]

First best blog name on the internet. Last year Verlander accomplished the equivalent of Moses parting the Red Sea when he convinced the bbwaa to award him the al mvp. The bbwaa is slower to change than the British monarchy. With Verlander they took a huge chance and peeled back convention and tradition. They will not expose themselves again and vote for Trout. Last year the bbwaa, "showed" the world that they can be progressive. Miggy, triple crown will send writers headlong into fond memory lanes. They will give miggy his mvp. It's the safer choice, the emotional choice, easily defencable as LAA is home in October. Cheers.

[squads]

Its a close call in my book, but Cabrera massacred the league down the stretch to help Detroit getting into the playoffs + triple crown! That has to stand for something. The fact that he is a 1B forced to play as a poor 3B certainly does not help his WAR either.