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Tuesday, October 02, 2012


At least with the rest of the lineup, Charlie is ensuring the maximum number of innings out of Rosenberg before having to lift him for a PH in his first AB.

willard preacher: I figured this Zolecki tweet would be right up BL's alley. Surprised I haven't seen anyone mention it yet...

"The Phillies have hired Bart Braun as Special Assistant to the GM. Braun had formerly been a scout with the Tampa Bay Rays."

good hire Rube

Anyone have any information on the guy they hired to be Special Assistant to the GM? As he came from the Rays, has he been involved in maintaining their farm system, etc?

Oh geez. That was 7 years ago however.

RedBurb, evidently he was Proefrock's right hand man with the Braves and Rays.

Matt Gelb (@magelb):
Approximate value of Phillies starting nine: $22.5 million. And Utley accounts for $15 million alone.

From last thread: Totally agree with KAS and sophist that most significant KK stat was improvement vs. LH.

Game opened at +250 for the Phils. Now at +125. Clinching does wacky things to a line.

Zzzzzzzz. The only reason to watch is Ruf, and to a lesser extent Brown. But then, there's minimart.

Cabrera or Trout? I would go with Cabrera. Triple Crown is still something special that deserves the recognition. Not something done once every several years.

"Game opened +250 for the Phils. Now at +125."

And this was AFTER Mini Mart was confirmed in the starting lineup?

Trout is just as deserving. In Stark's colum, the only Phils' player who was given any award consideration was:

NY Cy Yuk:
4th place: Chad Qualls

Sounds about right. Crappy bullpen sunk the Phils chances of making the postseason and Qualls before he was released was a key reason why.

The Triple Crown thing kinda trumps it for me regardless of WAR.

Trout is a good pick too though.

I don't want to get into this too deeply considering it's probably been covered quite extensively elsewhere, but what exactly makes a Triple Crown so special, considering what we know these days? Why not give it to the hitter with the longest consecutive games streak with a hit, or a shared award to all the players who hit for the cycle? We have other ways of linking good seasons with big names from the past, and as far as specialness, Trout's just about done something (30/50) that's even rarer.

The TC uses batting average instead of OBP. It arbitrarily picks RBI instead of Runs, both of which are heavily context-dependent and largely disregarded as significant measures of just about anything other than health. And home runs are a fine stat, but they don't take into account doubles, triples, etc.

Saying Cabrera should win the MVP because he's had a great season is fine, because he has. But saying he should win the award because of a TC is pretty silly.

Another note re: Trout/Cabrera.

Watched Moneyball last night for the first time (had read the book several times) and was amused at how traditionalists were represented as fighting for/strongly believing in the value of defense while the young turks couldn't give a darn -- amused because traditionalists almost always disregard defense when it comes to end-of-the-year voting. That contradiction even pops up here from time to time, as in "Sure, Miggy's a butcher in the field, but don't worry about that. Do you see his eye-popping offensive numbers?!"

Of course we're still rocking in the infancy of defensive metrics and have lots and lots of flaws to eradicate. But it should be pretty obvious that the disparity in their defensive play is a major, major advantage for Trout.

Unikruk, I certainly cannot argue your sound logic in favor of the advanced metrics and how they support Trout.

The realistic side, however, is that it's a vote and not an algorithm, or even a weighted average of SABR stats. And the majority of those with a vote, while the demography is slowly changing, are still largely more aligned to that "purist" mentality that you mentioned. Ability to debunk it's relative worth aside, the Triple Crown is so much a rarity that emotion of the voters absolutely will come into play. Throw in other such subconscious (or hell, ever conscious) thoughts such as whether or not their team made the playoffs, relative lifespan in their career (voters will absolutely justify a Cabrera vote because Trout is likely to win one or more down the line), the fact that Trout is a mortal lock for ROY, etc., and essentially the vote exposes itself to look a lot like the Heisman Trophy, where it's not much more than an exercise in vagary, perpetuated simply to keep people talking about the controversy, more so than the actual award winner.

I think you've swayed me that Trout might be the more deserving candidate. That said, it doesn't matter. Cabrera is winning this thing if he wins the Triple Crown.

I think the defensive metrics are a knock against basing an MVP vote solely on WAR (yes I know that is a bit of a strawman). There's no agreement yet on how reliable those stats are over ist 1 season. Remember when ben zobrist beat albert pujols in WAR? Trout's a great player, but so is Cabrera. I dont think picking either is a.travesty, I just think Cabrera should get extra credit points for doing something that hasn't been done in forever and ever.

Also, I think the MVP award means different things to different people because there's a wholly seperate award for best hitter, its just the Hank Aaron award.doesn't get as much publicity as the MVP & CY Young.

Trout is MVP. His season actually is historic. His combination of 30 HR, 45 steals and 125 runs has never been done before. In other words, it's been done fewer times than the Triple Crown.

I definitely agree with some of those points. And am reminded of the sh8tstorm that swirled when A-Rod was playing on all those last-place teams in Texas.

If WAR is problematic, we can always revert to the b00b scale: Trout's defense is somewhere in the plus/double-plus range, Cabrera probably a minus. And that's the eye test.

Listened to wip on way home and some guy from Nottingham pa called in (Steve) and started crying hysterically bc the philles lost and nats won.WTF. Anyone else hear it? Coz and proph were speechless.

in chooch's absence who bat's 4th? shouldn't it be ruf?

"Trout is MVP."

Yes...without him, the Angels wouldn't have made the playoffs.

Cabrera wins the MVP with ease. The sabermetric baseball dork stats can't compare with what the Triple Crown signifies and how simple it is to quantify.

Trout is the best player in baseball by a good margin...does that make him the MVP though?

my bad. ofc mr. clutch would bat cleanup. at least ruf is giving him some protection.

Aww, denny. If you're looking for simplicity and signification, why not just give the award to someone from the team with the most wins? Jeter for MVP, everybody!

No, not Cano, he doesn't have enough ribbies.

Okay, boys. Two more games to eke my BA up by 7 points. No matter how much crappy food I eat, I can't seem to get the sh*ts, so that strategy ain't working. I'm in there tonight though. Woot!!!

Aw, that was Ruf.

R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, XBH, SB, BB, K, BA, OBP, SLG, TB.

Cabreara leads Trout in H, 2B, HR, RBI, XBH, BA, SLG, & TB. Cabrera has 39 fewer Ks, & only 1 fewer BB. His OPS is friggin' 1.001, people! I suppose the SB, & 24 more R, are nice enough, but the 54 more RBI for Cabrera really push it over the top for me. (And for those whining about how that is an "other player" dependent stat, you might as well ignore R then, too.)

No doubt many -- if not most -- here will find a way to disagree, but it's simple enough to make an argument for Cabrera w/out citing the Triple Crown.

This is one of those arguments where there really isn't a wrong answer. Both are fantastic ballplayers who had elite seasons.

The counting stats arent all that fair if only due to Trout being stuck in AAA for the first month.

Bill Shaikin: "Mattingly: Blanton would start a tiebreaker vs Cardinals."

Good luck w/ that, Los Angeles.

Tonight is the night that Utley is supposed to injure something so that he'll be out until the All-Star break, right?

Or is that tomorrow?

Statistically, Trout deserves the MVP more than Rollins or Howard did the years they won.

***Good luck w/ that, Los Angeles***

Well, he is a WS winning pitcher.

I mean, that's something, right?

In re: MVP

Martinez is clearly the most versatile player around so I don't know what...wait. Oh.

NEPP: The counterargument to the AAA point would be there's no guarantee Trout keeps pace, or avoids injury, if given the same length of this season in MLB. Phillies fans of all fans should have learned the value of consistency & health, & neither should be taken for granted.

It also opens a slippery slope of potentially valuing pace over actual accomplishment. Projections are interesting, but no substitute for actually doing something.

Statistically, Trout deserves the MVP more than Rollins or Howard did the years they won.

With this, I agree. It's just (potentially) bad luck for Trout to have run into this kind of season from Cabrera.

All good points.

I suspect this wont be Trout's only year that he'll be up for an MVP.

Gelb: What does Charlie Manuel think HE needs to improve upon in spring training?

"I'm going to change a whole lot of things," Manuel said. "You're going to see me walking around into everything. We're going to get better. The biggest thing about the game, I want us to play right. If we play right consistently day in and day out, that's the way we want to play. Don't even talk about the talent. If you play the game of baseball right then you excel in playing it right. It's not accepting when somebody says, 'My bad.' You can forget that. This is a game where you have to correct. Yeah we'll make mistakes. But let's make those mistakes hustling and being aggressive.

"Those are things we can really, really depend on. As a manager, it's up to me that we make sure we work on those mistakes we make, mentally and physically. When I look at my coaches, I'll give you your job. That's your job. But next year, I'll be listening and I'll be talking more about the fundamentals and the way we play baseball. This year definitely had something to do with the players we got. But at the same time, we had a rough year. We'll correct that too."

Should I be encouraged? Or terrified? are the best!! i hope you have smth on this new braun guy.

Cabrera definitely deserves credit for staying healthy and producing over the course of the entire season.

Of course, if we very roughly consider their overall offensive contributions to be something of a wash, then Trout has produced at a faster rate. And it wasn't his fault they started him in AAA and waited so long to bring him up.

The playing time argument can be stretched either way.

Uh, BJ ... Outs?


Nice to get out of a jam

Speaking of triple crowns, does anyone else find it peculiar that the other Cabrera is permitted to just disclaim a batting crown that, by mathematical computation, he will, in fact, win? Don't get me wrong: I think it would be a huge stain on the game to see him win it. If Bud Selig wanted to rule that the batting title came with an asterisk, I wouldn't have a problem. But Bud Selig issued no such ruling. Instead, Cabrera just said, "Even if I win it, I don't want it," and everyone seems to be going along with it. It seems odd to me that a guy can say, "I don't want it" and, voila, it goes away -- even though simple math says he won.

GTDave: that quote sounds like the utterings of a man with a huge dent in his hat.

For the good of the game or something like that, bap.

Gorzellany looks like a Muppet.

b_a_p: I hadn't thought that deeply on the issue. All I know is that when I look at the record book & see "Home Runs (Career): Hank Aaron, 2nd" it makes me vomit.

I'll not quibble w/ this particular exemption.

NEPP: Yeah. I get it. It just seems sort of arbitrary -- especially just one year after another cheater won NL MVP. Even before the ruling got reversed, I don't recall any movement to take away his MVP.

Walk him and bring up Ruf for the GS.

Ah, Wigginton. Thanks for the memories.

I hope the Nationals get swept out of the NLDS.

So it's Chase Utley and the 7 dwarfs tonight. A lineup that could be waived en masse and the other 28 teams wouldn't even put in a claim (Houston might be interested).


Now THAT was Ruf.

Have I mentioned how fun it has been watching Ruf play?

How did that get out?


Sign him to an extension and pencil him in for April, Rube! Do it!

curt, Darin Ruf took offense to being called a "dwarf."

Darrin WTRuf

Ah, the old classic A Tale of Two Prospects...

i like it, ruf.

My back hurts carrying this team.

Organizational Filler -> Wow, this is unexpected -> Hmmm, we should move this kid up -> WTF is he doing? -> Seriously, a HR record -> Sure, let's call him up -> Sure, let's give him a few AB's -> No way can we leave him unprotected in the next Rule 5 -> Holy sh8t, is this guy really a candidate to make the big league squad next year?

Just a remarkable year for the kid. The biggest bright spot on an otherwise forgettable season.

Rosenburg does have some potential.

He's seemed to be either really good or really terrible in the majors.

Ruf is a great story, but remember what Kratz was doing after 8 or so starts...

curt-- definitely apples to apples there

Houston's not interested, either. They already own the Phillies.

GTown is winning.

Kratz entered tonight's game with an .813 OPS. I was his biggest advocate and even I never expected anything better than that. So I'm not sure how that example serves as the appropriate cautionary tale. Not to mention that Ruf's minor league numbers were way better than Kratz's.

1 for 2 baby! One more hit, and I'm in fat city!

BAP - just wanted to see if your alarm would sound.

61 was the old season mark for HR, not the career mark for H, Martinez.

Ruf has made things a bit more interesting. Just wonder if Amaro would even consider though penciling him in LF though as a starter early next year. Seems like too much of a leap but Phils might be forced to if they spend a ton of cash on a free agent CF.

@ Denny B.: As I have posted more than once, if you look at all of Rosenberg's outing since his call-up, no, he is not either really good or really terrible. You and a few others paint a picture of one good and one bad outing, in essence.

You should know that one bad outing takes more than one good outing to bring down the era. It takes many one-inning zero's to make up for a major implosion.

Are you listening to Sarge and T-Mac talking about him as an outside possibility to be in the rotation?

Again, I don't understand all the criticism he gets. It's unwarranted. Another out pitch and he's good to go, IMHO.

Kratz has been terrible offensively since Sept 1st but he's shown you exactly what you want to see out of a backup catcher:

- Solid defense with a great arm
- Moderate average
- Decent power
- Basic level of comfort with the starters

He's penciled in as the backup next year especially since he will come cheap ($700k or so).

Yes, curt, about Kratz, but Ruf did hit 38 dingers, unlike Kratz at LV. Wouldn't you possibly conclude that Ruf showed power and batting average for an extended period of time in the minors that just might be translateabe in the majors?

Gotta get in those lousy calls while ya still can, umps.

They should just have Little League rules in this one and next team to score wins since they have already played 5 IP.

Diekman actually had good command that inning and actually was finding a bit too much of the strike zone.

He's one guy that is an enigma almost every time out. Misses a ton of bats & gets his share of Ks but he must give Cholly/Dubee agita when he comes into the game.

Looking at Diekman's splits and this was rather odd:

0.53 ERA at home in 17 IP
10.61 ERA on the road in 9 1/3 IP with absolutely horrendous numbers across the board

One of those stupid quirky splits that likely has no significance. Just thought it was odd that at CBP batters are hitting just .119 in 70 PAs and on the road they are hitting .364 in 56 PAs.

Even keeping in mind all the precautions of a 26 year old figuring it out in AA, you can't deny Rufs power, and well, that could just be enough to keep in the MLB regardless.

Too bad Mini Mart doesn't have another week to see if he can push the Mendoza line.

MG: He'd need more than a week.

Looked like Dom misjudged that one.

Lindbomb enjoys giving up home runs.

Honestly, there are those who see potential in Lindblom? I just see HRs waiting to be hit. The Phillies have to do better than that.

Cabrera has been better at the plate than Trout, but just a little better.

In all other phases of the game, Trout has been miles ahead of Cabrera. It is not even necessary to look at WAR or defensive metrics to draw this conclusion

Trout gets my vote, but I don't have a vote. Those that do will have a difficult time denying the award to a Triple Crown winner.

Google "generic righty" and Lindbomb's face pops up.

i just tried that curt. and eric cantor's face popped up.

Okay, let's face it, Phils need to acquire two starting OFers for 2013.

Maybe a platoon of Ruf and Brown can fill one spot. With Nix and Mayberry ready to step in if either fails.

Nah, first image google returns for me was Trevor Cahill. There's also a kooky image of Kevin Bacon from 1989.

Didn't really care to watch this clown, so I went into the kitchen to clean up a bit. The situation has not improved.

Only Lindbomb 4th HR allowed in a Phils' uniform. Just seems like there have been 2-3 more.

Game of inches. A few more inches, and they'd be picking up pieces of Lindblom's skull for the next twenty minutes.

2 for 3 bitches!

oh man, lindy dodged a bullet to the head there.

too bad that didn't take that moron's head off.

Lindbomb has allowed 13 HRs this year in 71 IP (1.65 HR/9).

He didn't give up a HR last year in 29 2/3 IP but he's a pretty extreme flyball pitcher who throws a ton of fastballs. Going to give up his share of bombs.

Yeah, and like it or not one of those outfielders needs to be named Hamilton. He's the only impact bat out there. Whoever we end up with in CF will only give us what we have had in best.

Of course, trying to build a team with expensive FA's is a fool errand, but here we are.

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