Game chat: Phils seek 10th straight winning season

The Phillies can accomplish something the Pittsburgh Pirates haven't done in 20 years by finishing in the black when Cliff Lee and the 81-80 Phillies bid farewell to their vexing 2012 campaign today at Nationals Park.

Beerleaguer: Although the Phils fell short of their goal, use today as an opportunity to reflect on many of the positive second-half developments. Rock bottom came on July 14 when they reached a season-low 14 games under .500. They have a chance to finish two games above sea level this afternoon. Monday night aside, growth in the bullpen, which has pitched to a 2.93 second-half ERA, and surprise contributions from unexpected sources kept them in the playoff conversation deep into September. It's a team in which seven - possibly eight - players will have made their Major League debut this season while a handful of others yo-yoed in and out of the minor leagues.

If nothing else, the Phils have managed to build back some optimism that will carry over to next spring. [Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[Fatalotti]

Edmundo: And WAR is perfect, of course.

Posted by: clout | Thursday, October 04, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Beautiful clout response. Edmundo never even mentions WAR, but he does mention walks, baserunning and defense. To clout, this means WAR!!!!

How about the following:

Trout: 171 OPS+, 175 wRC+
Cabrera: 166 OPS+, 166 WRC+

Trout: 182 runs created (runs + RBI - HR)
Cabrera: 204 runs created (in 58 extra PA)

Trout: 49 SB against 5 CS
Cabrera: 4 SB against 1 CS

So Trout was actually a better hitter, when you adjust for park factors, and he created only 22 less runs than Cabrera, while having 58 less PA.

And, of course, there is no question that Trout was one of the best defensive OF in baseball this year, while playing a great deal of time at CF (885.2 of his 1225.2 defensive innings were in CF), while Cabrera was, at the absolute best, an average (and by most accounts, poor) defensive player at 3B, which is a less important position than CF.

And even beyond stolen bases, there is no doubt that Trout is a much better baserunner in terms of taking the extra base.

So there you have it...without using any advanced metrics (and using OPS+, which clout has always accepted), it's pretty clear that Trout was the better player this year...by a pretty good margin.

Now, what does the "Valuable" mean in MVP? Well, that's the million dollar question. But, even with winning the Triple Crown (which is a friggin awesome achievement, by the way), I still don't think Cabrera should take it from Trout. Trout was simply too god damn good this year. Better than Cabrera, and worth more to his team.

[The hook]

Figgins wants out of Seattle. Considering the slop on third base market and two years left. ????

[Fatalotti]

And, I'd remiss:

Trout:
bWAR: 10.7
fWAR: 10.4

Cabrera:
bWAR: 6.9
fWAR: 7.2

Cabrera was fantastic this year. Trout was otherwordly.

[GTown_Dave]

I can't wait until Charlie gets his first ejection of '13, & Dubee & Sandberg begin feverishly relaying contradicting signals to the players on the field.

[Sil Campusano]

GTown does bring up a good point. Who's in charge when Cholly gets run?

[Dave]

Fatalotti: as we all know, WAR is a garbage stat. Why, it has Ben Zobrist as more valuable than Ryan Howard this year!

[lorecore]

Fatal: Whoever says they would vote for Trout for MVP can not be argued with, the kid's resume is just immune to any possible criticism.

It doesn't mean I agree that he should win it over Cabrera, but the last thing I will try to do is find a reason to not vote for Trout, its just impossible.

[GBrettFan]

GBrettFan: But just imagine how entertaining it will be to have Samuel at 1B. Ever wanted to see Vance Worley go 0-7 in SB attempts? Well 2013 is your chance!

Posted by: GTown_Dave

It's entertaining in theory (love your example of Samuel asking Worley to steal bases), but in practice, I think I'll just feel frustrated and miffed.

[lorecore]

Who would have a better 2013 season(if they even are given a chance):

Placido Polanco
Chone Figgins

[donc]

Trout is overrated. I prefer Salmon.

[Fatalotti]

Instead of asking whether or not the Phillies should take a look at Figgins for 2013, ask whether ANY team should take a look at Chone Figgins for 2013.

The answer is a resounding no.

[Fatalotti]

Tim Salmon was a pretty good Angel, in his heyday, but he hasn't played since 2006. I have a feeling that adversely affects his MVP candidacy.

[donc]

Figgins wants out of Seattle? Shouldn't that read Seattle wants out of Figgins? Yuck!

[Sil Campusano]

The Camden Riversharks should take a look at Figgins. Maybe. You know, if he wants to be a security guard or something.

[GBrettFan]

Does the bench coach really do anything? I always felt that Charlie was probably making the calls even when ejected, and that doesn't even happen that frequently, to begin with over, the course of 162 games.

On the other hand, from what I remember hearing of Milt out in the 'pen, he's pretty funny and the RP's will miss him for that reason alone (no idea if he's helpful for actual coaching). Does anyone else have a coach for catchers?

I love the idea of Nichols in the 'pen to help the young RPs. I always wonder, though, whether development will suffer when we promote minor league coaches who've been lauded for mentoring. Seems like it should be important to fill their spots with good coaches, too, since they mold future Phillies, so I hope due diligence is done there (and I'm not saying it isn't).

[donc]

"Does the bench coach really do anything?"

Who do you think picks up the jocks in the locker room?

[GBrettFan]

Oh, sorry, I called Mick by the name Milt. I meant Mick Billmeyer and ironically, I used his first name because I have trouble remembering his last name properly. Obviously I don't really remember either of his names correctly.

[GTown_Dave]

Someone named "Chone Figgins" belongs in a Dickens novel, not on a Major League Baseball team.

[lorecore]

Pierre and Figgins had very similar age 32 seasons.

Pierre 2010: .275/.341/.316, 68/18 SB/CS
Figgins 2010: .259/.340/.306, 42/15 SB/CS

Figgins got benched for last two years while Pierre played all of 2011 and then rebounded in Philly this year. I dont think i'd be against giving Figgins the same minor league deal as Pierre got this year if/when he gets cut.

His 54 OPS+ this year does blow MiniMart away...

[GBrettFan]

I haven't read any opinion of the hiring of Bart Braun to be a special assistant to the GM. Thoughts?

Here's what I found about him in the Delaware Times:

The Phillies added a member to their front office Tuesday when veteran scout/front-office executive Bart Braun was hired away from the Tampa Bay Rays to serve as a special assistant to Amaro.

Braun has a long relationship with assistant GM Scott Proefrock that dates to their days with the Pittsburgh Pirates in the late 1980s. Both men eventually moved on to the Braves before being hired by Chuck Lamar in Tampa Bay to serve as co-assistant general managers.

According to Proefrock, Braun always has been a scout at heart, far more interested in the evaluation of talent as opposed to the financial side.

Amaro said Braun, 61, will focus most of his energies on the pro scouting, with his first assignment coming this winter when he goes to the Dominican Republic.

[Edmundo]

Who would have a better 2013 season(if they even are given a chance):

Placido Polanco
Chone Figgins

The 5th Beatle, Billy Preston, supplied the answer to this question.

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin' You gotta have somethin' If you wanna be with me"

[MG]

Coaching changes:

- Sandberg is the new 3rd base coach next year
- Samuel is the 1st base coach
- Billmeyer got demoted to catching coach; Nichols is the new bullpen coach
- Steve Henderson takes over as the new hitting coach
- Salisbury reporting they won't have a formal bench coach next year

Glad that Nichols got promoted. He seems to have done good work the last few years at Lehigh as the pitching coach getting phrase from several pitchers I have remember recently including Horst and Grilli.

Unfortunately though this means that Cholly and Dubee are basically going to be the ones making decisions late in games again including pitching moves. Managing/coaching wasn't a strength of this team and it won't be again next year. If the starters pitched like they did in '10 and '11, it won't matter as much.

If they don't though and the bullpen has a lot of mix-and-match pieces, I imagine late game strategy will remain underwhelming.

[GBrettFan]

With the Red Sox and the Marlins both looking for new managers, I wonder whether Sandberg will be enticed away from the Phillies.

[MG]

GBrettfan - Doubt it. Pretty clear that Phils are envisioning Sandberg as their coach in '14 after Cholly retires next offseason.

[Fatalotti]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/trout-versus-cabrera-offense-only-context-included/

Fangraphs with an offense only look at Trout vs. Cabrera, and how Trout still wins going away. It's really not even a debate.

[donc]

Finally official; Bobby V. sleeps with the fishes. God I hope this doesn't mean he ends up back in TV.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

It's a debate.

I believe Trout should win the MVP, but it's neither a landslide nor a settled question.

Cabrera is a worthy candidate. He's just not as worthy as Trout.

[lorecore]

Fangraphs doesn't account in historical significance, which is I think is a legit factor. And while winning more games than the Tigers, the Angels still finished 3rd place in their division, so the incremental value that Cabrera gave to the Tigers ultimately ended up more important than the incremental value that Trout gave to the Angels.

Neither of these things are enough to win an MVP alone, but when combined with the monster season he put up, i think it is.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

The Detroit Tigers would have finished in 4th place in both the AL East and the AL West. That they're in the playoffs is irrelevant in the MVP debate.

[lorecore]

MG: Agreed, I think Charlie retires. Next year could be a disaster if they get off to a slow start and Charlie starts getting hassled about his future every loss. Will turn into a circus and probably hurt the team 10x more than any on-field miscue Manuel may make.

[lorecore]

"That they're in the playoffs is irrelevant in the MVP debate."

What percentage of MVP voters do you think agree with this statement? I would guess under 30%.

[MG]

You could have had the greatest baseball manager ever managing the Red Sox this year & it would have been a train wreck lucky to win 75 games.

Series of really poor offseason moves (Reddick for Bailey trade; Melcanon for Lowrie trades), terrible luck on the injury front, and a roster of bloated, over-inflated contracts.

The one guy who amazingly outside of Boston remain largely unscathed was Theo Epstein. Went to the perfect situation in Chicago - a team that was bottoming out with no expectations of contending for the next 3 years and a team with considerable financial resources that was getting through a series of poor contracts to veterans.

Almost inevitable that in 3 years with the Cubs' financial resources that Epstein should be able to build a club that moves back to the .500 mark & back into contention. My bet is that he will be hailed as a 'genius' but it will have been as much as being the 'right guy, right time' situation.

[MG]

lorecore - Exactly. Cholly is now officially a 'lame duck' coach and if this team gets out a slow start again next year including hovering around .500, the calls to fire Cholly will be pretty pronounced.

[GTown_Dave]

"That they're in the playoffs is irrelevant in the MVP debate."

What percentage of MVP voters do you think agree with this statement? I would guess under 30%.

The first statement should be true, & the second probably is true.

You could have had the greatest baseball manager ever managing the Red Sox this year ...

Instead they had Bobby Valentine.

[Fatalotti]

KAS, it's not a debate. Trout provided much more value for his team. The only leg that Cabrera has to stand on is his offensive performance (and it's a pretty damned strong leg), but most metrics, other than the raw slash line, show Trout to have been a better offensive player. He wins in OPS+, wRC+, OBP, RE24, SB, and is slightly behind in RC. Just looking at Trout's bbref page, he won a pretty cool "Triple Crown" himself: Runs, Stolen bases and OPS+. I'd say that's pretty damn impressive, if you ask me. I don't know how historically significant it is, but I'd guess it's fairly rare.

Baserunning and defense both HEAVILY favor Trout.

So under what rationale is Cabrera the MVP?

[Sophist]

No one could have made the Red Sox a playoff team, but Valentine brought his ESPN personality and made it a disaster. Guy is not a professional, and everything that club has done over the last year plus points to major dysfunction from above.

Phils are far from the perfect FO, but even critics of Manual/Rollins/Phils leadership should take note at the differences between the Phils and Red Sox this year.

[donc]

I nominate Bobby V. as manager of the punchable face team.

[Sophist]

"KAS, it's not a debate."

I think it's a debate so long as the definition of 'value' (MVP) is not mandated by MLB.

These players were clearly the best two in the AL, and so many things go into 'value' that it seems the height of stubbornness to declare the debate over. That he plays on a playoff team, is in his 10th year, and out-slashed Trout, and played in 161 games are all perfectly legitimate reasons to at least consider and debate Cabrera if not to vote for him at day's end. There's clearly a debate to be had.

[Bedrosian's Beard]

"The only leg that Cabrera has to stand on is his offensive performance (and it's a pretty damned strong leg)..."

Umm, that's why it's a debate.

[Fatalotti]

I nominate Bobby V. as manager of the punchable face team.

Posted by: donc | Thursday, October 04, 2012 at 01:51 PM

Seconded.

[Meyer]

I'll second both motions.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Fatalotti: As I said, I believe Trout is the MVP, but Cabrera had an historic season as well. He was a better pure hitter, trailing by just 6 points in OBP and slugging a whopping 42 points higher. He also had a higher wRC and wRAA. And remember that the MVP instructions specifically mention games played... and Trout missed a month.

[Fatalotti]

"The only leg that Cabrera has to stand on is his offensive performance (and it's a pretty damned strong leg)..."

Umm, that's why it's a debate.

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, October 04, 2012 at 01:57 PM

Yeah, ignore what I wrote immediately afterwards. That's cool.

[Willard Preacher]

donc and Fat, consider it done...

[donc]

No brainer WP.

[Willard Preacher]

An update (the disclaimer has to be in effect for Bobby V being as he's now not a current MLB figure - don't want to open a can of worms for retired dudes):

Punchable Face All-Stars:
- Cody Ross
- Russell Martin
- Nick Swisher
- Mark Teixera
- Dan Uggla
- Jonathan Papelbon
- Buster Posey
- Brian Wilson
- Yadier Molina
- Nyjer Morgan
- Jose Reyes
- Bobby Valentine (inactive manager)

[Fatalotti]

KAS, wRC and wRAA don't account for where you're hitting. LA is much less friendly to hitters.

And yes, Cabrera played more games, but that's what makes it even crazier that Trout still wins in SO MANY categories. I mean is 42 points in SLG more impressive than 45 extra stolen bases? Is it more impressive than playing a fantastic CF as compared to a mediocre 3B?

Also, Cabrera is a clean up hitter who led the league in RBI. Trout is a leadoff hitter who led the league runs. Isn't that a wash?

Yes Cabrera won in AVG, but by 4 points, whereas Trout won in OBP by 6 points. Again, a wash. So if SLG is the difference maker, then you HAVE to account for the SB.

If you use the two players SB to add to SLG and their CS to subtract from OBP, these are your new slash lines:

Cabrera: .330/.392/.612
Trout: .326/.391/.651

Is Cabrera still the run-away better offensive player?

[Fatalotti]

By the way, using SB/CS like that isn't my favorite thing to do, but we HAVE to account for them when talking about a player's offensive ability. So just claiming that Miggy had a 42 point difference in SLG as a means to claim that he is a pure better offensive player (maybe hitter, but we should talk about overall offensive contributions) seems a little hollow.

[MG]

Valentine seems like is a decent manager who just happens to be a real dick. In today's game, a guy like Cholly who has a strong rep with his players & doesn't criticize them individually in publicly probably is a better fit.

Argue that Cholly's greatest asset as a manager has been his ability to keep things out of the press regarding individual players.

Even when he has had difficulties with JRoll & disciplined him, not once that I remember did Cholly discuss what was said publicly, criticize JRoll in a public forum, or frankly even harp on the subject. That's really savvy in this media age & something that gets overlooked with Cholly even if it is somewhat of an old-fashioned management technique.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Fatalotti: You know you can't just add stolen bases to hits to increase slugging. A double has a better chance of driving in a run than a single. A single and a stolen base do not.

Listen, I agree that Trout is the better candidate. But to suggest there is no debate is kind of crazy. Of course there is a debate... it's playing out right here and in many other places.

[Sophist]

Fatalotti - I believe KAS agrees with you that Trout -- as your stats posted go to show -- had the better season. I think his only point is that there's a debate to be had. I agree with him. I don't think anyone who votes for Cabrera is an ignoramus or irrational.

[Willard Preacher]

So, the Marlins, fresh off of the bump from their shiny new $600M stadium and their increased payroll with a couple marquee names, sold out exactly 2 games this year. I'm going to guess that will go down as a less-than-optimal business investment...

[Fatalotti]

Of course the phrase, "there's no debate" simply means, I don't think the other side has much of a case. There's a debate going on for decades over evolution vs. creationism, but that doesn't mean that both sides have valid cases.

KAS, I know there's a better way to account for stolen bases, and I mentioned in a follow up post that I don't like accounting for SB/CS the way I did, but we ought to account for them somehow, no?

Cabrera was the better slugger; of this there is no doubt. But whatever chasm he created in SLG, is filled (maybe completely), but the chasm that Trout owns on the basepaths.

So, I'll say it again: if the offensive components are this close (and arguably weighing in Trout's favor, even in raw counting numbers), how can anyone seriously consider Cabrera the MVP when you take defense into account?

I just don't see it, I'm sorry. Last year, I though Kemp should have on the MVP, but I could understand why some picked Braun. I though Doc should have won the Cy Young, but I could understand why some picked Kershaw. In both cases, the numbers supported Kemp/Doc, but I could understand the argument for the other. I just don't see the argument for Cabrera. And that has nothing to do with how fantastic his season was, and everything to do with how supernatural Trout's season was.

[Edmundo]

I'm going to guess that will go down as a less-than-optimal business investment...

It was probably a fine business investment as the public teat was suckled to the tune of hundred of millions of dollars.

[Chesty Morgan]

"You could have had the greatest baseball manager ever managing the Red Sox this year & it would have been a train wreck lucky to win 75 games."

Don't make Tony LaRussa prove you wrong!

[Len39]

I think we should all thank the Marlins for dumping Cabrera for nothing. Imagine having to see Cabrera/Stanton in CBP?

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Fatalotti: As others have said, as long as the MVP criteria remain largely undefined, it allows people to create their own. Cabrera had a tremendous season... and without Trout, he'd be the unanimous MVP.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Beat writers report Charlie says if he gets tossed Sandberg manages the team.

[Fatalotti]

KAS, I get that. And I'm being a bit hard-nosed in my approach. It's just that I'm tired of defense and baserunning being ignored to a large extent when determining the MVP. It happened last year with Braun beating out Kemp, nad it might happen again this year.

And don't get me started on the whole "well, his team made the playoffs and his didn't" argument (an argument to which you seem less than sympathetic).

[Willard Preacher]

"Beat writers report Charlie says if he gets tossed Sandberg manages the team."

Wow, that clears up that hard hitting question that will actually be relevant, what, like 3 times a year?

Any word on what the hell the plan is for Utley's off-season training regimen or for a third baseman?

Not bagging on you, KAS, I just find it amazing what these beat writers (hence "the media") choose to fixate on.

[donc]

"It was probably a fine business investment as the public teat was suckled to the tune of hundred of millions of dollars."

A very good friend of mine who moved here 5 years ago from London has become a huge Phillies fan. We go to half a dozen or more games a year together and he gets a partial season ticket plan. Before the season he was asking me about the Marlins new park. I told him about the scoundrel that owns the team and how he held up the taxpayers of the entire state of FLA. I was honest enough to point out that just about all owners do it to some degree, but Loria really bent the taxpayers over. His reply; just think of all the schools and hospitals you could build with that kind of money.

Amazing the perspective that people from other parts of the world have, isn't it? it was actually kind of embarrasing.

[Fatalotti]

And I guess if Juan Gonzalez could beat out A-Rod and Jr. in 1996, I should be less than surprised if Cabrera wins this year.

[donc]

I heard Utley saying yesterday that he thinks he will have to train continuously throughout the winter. He won't be going too hard, but he thinks that taking time off last winter was a big part of the problem. Crosses fingers.

[Bowlcut]

Phillies will also hire an assistant hitting coach.

[Sil Campusano]

WP, the Utley issue was addressed, but Amaro's answer was so long-winded and noncommittal that it basically revealed nothing other than, "We'll keep an eye on him."

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Willard Preacher: Guess I don't have as much of an issue with the beat writers who, taken as a whole, I think are pretty good.

The big story out today is the coaching changes and the lack of a bench coach made it a legitimate question. Not sure they were focused on it at the expense of everything else. It's going to be the longest off-season the Phillies have had since 2006... plenty of time to ask questions.

[Willard Preacher]

KAS, fair enough. And I don't think we'll have any answers to the most relevant questions now, anyway (namely, how the hell to fix the holes for next year). I guess I'm a little bitter about having to watch a bunch of teams I'm indifferent towards in the playoffs. I'm all for the great stories (Orioles, A's), but by and large, I'm bummed I can't watch my team and have to watch teams I don't really care about - Except the Yankees. F8ck those guys...

[Iceman]

How can there be 'no debate' over Trout v. Cabrera when there is a fierce debate being had? Because Fata posted a Fangraphs article that says so?

I consider myself pretty pro-sabermetrics but the attitude shown by those that think there is 'no debate' over an award that is already highly subjective is why some just dismiss stat-heads as arrogant baseball nerds.

[Fatalotti]

Ice, apparently the phrase, "no debate" no longer has a metaphorical meaning, and what I actually meant is that no one is debating this topic anywhere, at all. I must be living in a state of catatonia.

Listen, I'm open to being convinced that Cabrera deserves the award. Convince me. I get that the baseball writers aren't always bastions of logic and clear-headed thinking. But if there is a valid argument for why Cabrera should win, I'd like to hear it.

Please, though, when you do, don't forget to consider baserunning and defense, where Trout holds a monstrous edge. And when did considering defense and baserunning become the calling card of "arrogant saber nerds"? Did no one consider these elements valuable until Bill James and Tom Tango showed up on the scene?

[MG]

"Baseball’s 30 teams drew 74.9 million fans during the 2012 regular season, according to an e-mailed release. That’s a 2 percent increase over last season’s total, and the most since the league drew 78.6 million in 2008. The league record is 79.5 million, set in 2007.

For the second consecutive year the Philadelphia Phillies led all clubs in attendance, with 3.57 million, followed by the New York Yankees at 3.54 million and the Texas Rangers, who set a franchise record with 3.46 million, according to the release. Nine clubs drew more than three million fans, including the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox and Tigers.

The New York Mets, who were 28-48 after the All-Star break and finished 14 games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East division, drew 2.24 million. It is their lowest total since 2003, according to ESPN."

Selig stated that the new playoff structure as a reason for increased attendance and he is probably right. Just hope that baseball doesn't add any more playoff teams. Not crazy about Nov. baseball.

I did like the author's jab (likely a Yanks' fan) at the Mets at the end of the article.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-04/baseball-draws-74-9-million-fans-in-2012-highest-in-four-years.html

[MG]

Baseball purists may hate the 2nd WC but I generally like it.

Besides making Sept. baseball somewhat relevant for the Phils, it allows teams to rebuild quickly and have a shot at the playoffs. Also gives smaller payroll teams in a really competitive division a chance if there are 2 big payroll clubs in their division.

As for the compliant about the 1st WC having to play one game to determine their playoff fate, big deal. People complaining about its not for the Braves to have to play the Cards in a one-game playoff are missing the point. Did the Braves win the NL East? No. Then those critics should largely shut up. Same with people griping about how the Tigers go on to the next round. They won their division.

Only real drawback to it is that the 2nd WC team one of these years might only win 84 or 85 games & still make the playoffs.

I wouldn't mind other alternatives but baseball isn't going to endorse a season with less playoff teams at this point or getting rid of Interleague play.

I would much rather see MLB do away with Interleague play so the Phils could play more games against NL opponents instead.

[bay_area_phan]

I'm a huge fan of Fatalotti's posts, but I'm going to wade in & wrangle with him on this topic. On behalf of the old-schoolers -- who still think batting average is a very significant statistic, while fielding metrics are stupid -- allow me to state the case for Cabrera.

Winning the triple crown is an accomplishment that goes above & beyond the mere sum of its 3 statistical components. Baseball is the oldest of American team sports and, by far, the most steeped in tradition. The triple crown is one of those traditions. I don't know when it was "invented," but it's fair to say that, for more than 100 years, it has been recognized as a rare achievement of all-around offensive superiority.

To draw an analogy, pretty much no one would dispute that Wimbledon is the signature event in tennis. Why? It's played on a surface that is used for almost no other pro tennis tournaments (save for a few tune-up tourneys in June). Not to mention that it's a surface which rewards only a very specific style of play, which often doesn't translate to success on other surfaces. So why is it such a big deal compared to other tournaments? Tradition. So too, the triple crown in baseball. The statistics which comprise it may be somewhat arbitrary and, even in combination, they may fail to account for all the ways that a baseball player can help his team win games. But it has been recognized for over 100 years as a signature achievement of offensive excellence -- once which, until yesterday, hadn't been done in 45 years.

In short, it's just cool. It's so damn cool that anyone who accomplishes it deserves the MVP, in my book.

[Willard Preacher]

MG, I think there would be less backlash about the 1st WC having a one-game playoff if the "old" WC system was never implemented, and it went directly to this. Not sure why the sense of entitlement would exist around the better WC team (a team that didn't win the division), outside of a few years of not having to have done it before. If they think back even further however, they'd be on the outside looking in, altogether.

I'm with you, that the added drama probably helps with overall interest (and who would have even predicted something like the A's forcing the Rangers into a "play in" game?). I think that's good.

And with attendance being a lagging indicator (as they're significantly tied to season ticket purchases, which occur before a team even sets foot on the field in a season - i.e. largely tied to previous year's performance/expectations), it will only help. I can see attendance boosts coming for a team like Baltimore next year, based solely on their ability to make it to the play-in game this year. Hope springs eternal, and all of that.

[Lake Fred]

"Beat writers report Charlie says if he gets tossed Sandberg manages the team."

I think the key word is "tossed". We're assuming it means getting thrown out of a game, but here are some other possibilities. He could be tossed off a cliff, tossed out of an airplane, tossed overboard at sea or tossed from the Phillies organization. In those cases, Sandberg becomes the permanent Manager immediately.

[Fatalotti]

BAP, I was going to post this link anyhow, but given your post, it seems even more apropos. This is Stark's argument for why he chooses Trout, and he admits to all of the traditional lore that you just brought up, but he still argues that Trout ought to win.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8450155/mike-trout-buster-posey-rest-2012-award-winners-mlb

Two key stats that he points out:

-His 10.5 WAR has only been accomplished by 13 other players (you'll not that this is less than the number of players who've hit for the triple crown).
-His combination of 30 HR, 45 SB and 125 R has NEVER been done before.

[Fatalotti]

And lest I seem like a Cabrera hater, let me say, clearly and explicitly, his winning of the Triple Crown is going to be, and ought to be, the story from 2012 that has the most historic significance, because it is an AWESOME feat. He is an awesome baseball player, and it's an incredible accomplishment.

[derekcarstairs]

Fata - wOBA and wRC+ reflect SBs and CS.

Trout - wOBA = .422 and wRC+ = 175
Cabrera - wOBA = .416 and wRC+ = 166

[bay_area_phan]

Fata: The "30 homeruns, 45 steals, 125 runs" argument feels kind of arbitrary to me. It's like someone just sat down and said, "This guy is having a phenomenal year. Let's run a bunch of B-Ref searches until we come up with some combination of numbers that no one but he has ever accomplished."

That said, I do get the argument that Trout should win because he has simply been so excellent in so many different areas, and has done it while playing in a much worse hitter's park than Cabrera. But I would still vote for Cabrera.

[Kutztown Fan]

No matter who wins the AL MVP, there are going to be a lot of angry people.

What do you think the odds are for a tie?

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Cabrera.

[NEPP]

One Word to Solve it: CO-MVPs.

[Michael Martinez]

I'm the league MVP. Most Versatile Player.

[Sil Campusano]

This is completely irrelevant, but I thought it was funny:
In 215 plate appearances this year, Jason Bay hit two doubles. 2.

Mini Mart had 3 in 122 PA's.

[ODB]

This is also completely irrelevant, but Mike Trout has a good chance to pass St. Utley as the career MLB leader in SB% at some point next season. He needs 27 more attempts with a similar walk rate.

[ODB]

success rate that is

[GBrettFan]

I thought this article was good - It puts Jimmy's comments in context and also talks a little about why he was probably incorrect. I think it's key that Charlie wants them to play better. I just read (elsewhere) that Charlie is looking forward to the challenges next season & hasn't yet decided what he wants to do beyond next season.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20121004_Some_Phillies_pin_poor_season_on_injuries__but_facts_suggest_otherwise.html?mr=1&submit=Vote&oid=1&172555751=Y&pid=172555751&cid=8500281

[Dickie Thong]

One Word to Solve it: CO-MVPs.

That's what I hope happens. Only time it happened was 1979 (Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell).

[fumphis]

I think BAP has it right on the MVP/Triple Crown. The MVP award doesn't actually matter. And not just in the way that baseball "doesn't actually matter," but even a level above that, in the sense that it exists purely as a construct that casts a player in a certain historical light without affecting anything else about the game. Meanwhile the selection process is notably arbitrary and silly. Given those facts, hair-splitting about performance differences is kind of missing the point. The point is, whose season is so memorable that it deserves to be awarded an MVP? And that's probably Cabrera just because of the significance of the Triple Crown. Trout will get his place in history with his RoY. The de facto role of the MVP is not to carefully sort through each players' performance and pick the best, it's to play its own small role in the game's historiography.

Now there's another sense in which MVP awards could be said to have symbolic value by representing some kind of manifestation of the baseball zeitgeist, in this case a potential torch-passing from traditionalists to SABRists. Viewed in that light, it makes some sense to make the case for whichever player represents your horse in that particular race (Cabrera for traditionalists, Trout for SABRists). If that's how you approach it, then Fata is making sense.

[Fatalotti]

fumphis, I think what Trout has done this season has been even more historically rare/significant than Cabrera's Triple Crown.

I mean, as far as rookie seasons go, there is Mike Trout (10.5 fWAR), and then Dick Allen (8.7). Even if you want to count A-Rod's age 20 season (even though it wasn't technically his rookie season, he still "only" had 9.8 WAR).

What Trout has done this season is unprecedented.

[HammRadio]

The crazy thing about Fat's argument while has some validity, he completely trumps his anti-counting stat bias, by providing other counting stats he likes better. WE don't like RBI and HR. And AVG doesn't have enough information and then throw SB and R at us. Well.. which is it... [Sorry Fat i'm throwing you win with other folks arguing the Trout vote have used your same argument]

Some of these same folks will also downgrade Jimmy Rollins 2007 year and ignore that he had a season NO ONE ever had either...

>=20 3B, >=30 HR, >=40 SB

If you ignored SB and added in runs...
No one ever had >=130 R, >=20 3B, >=30 HR...

But as @bap says those are arbitrary dividing lines.

Forgetting that WAR is a mis-understood stat by traditionalists, and that those who understand it debate the very components that make up the number.

What WAR are we using this week to judge??? fWAR or bWAR??? Did they tweak the WAR calculation again??? Oh wait they did? its been tweaked??? Oh great. What is it now??? Oh wait... we must tweak the calculation again for at bats in Night time games in nationally televised games against LOOGYs.

Cabrera and Trout both have had HISTORIC seasons. Both should be rewarded. I'd be fine with a Trout ROY and Cabrera MVP. I'd be fine with Co-MVP. Which could happen.

What people get annoyed about the SABR population is the dismissive nature (e.g. follow @keithlaw on twitter) of those carrying that flag. While @Fat defended why he chose to use the "NO DEBATE" hyperbole ignored its dismissive level of argument at the same time as he argued its merit as an argument. **Drops Mic**

As fans of baseball, isn't it better to be arguing how great these seasons are rather than seeing someone like Terry Pendleton as MVP???

[SamDracula]

I go against the grain and vote Cabrera MVP. If Trout didn't have Pujols, Morales, Kendrick, etc, he wouldn't have come close to scoring all those runs. He needed help more than Cabrera. Go A'S!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[kuvasz]

I would like to apologize to Jason in particular for having impugned his objectivity, and to Beer Leaguer in general for several posts of mine on this thread that do not live up to the level of civil public discourse the site is known for. I hope that those offended will accept my heart-felt apology.