Sunday chat: Narcoleptic Phillies fighting for survival

The Phillies will simply go to sleep on you, and are likely headed for an early slumber.

Beerleaguer: So because the comatose Phillies couldn't muster an attack against Dallas Keuchel and the Astros Saturday night, in what might have been the worst loss of the season due to the sheer lethargy of it, they're in a must-win situation, down three with 16 to play, counting on a shutdown effort from Roy Halladay this afternoon and a ton of help over the next two-and-a-half weeks. Down, but not out, says ESPN's 2.6 percent odds of making the postseason, which is about where they were Tuesday.

The problem with the offense is that it isn't very good. And if you want to be honest about it, the last time they fielded something to write home about was 2009, maybe 2010 in a stretch, but even the 2010 team shut it down over long stretches. Man, the lineup used to be air tight with big-time power, including a trio of All-Stars in the outfield. Mercy.

So now that I've set the mood, here's today's lineup: Rollins, Pierre, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Mayberry, Brown. Martinez. See, that's exactly what I mean.

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Comments

[Rich D]

None of us saw this disaster of a weekend coming. I was so psyched after Wednesday's game, as were all of us. What is it about playing the Astros in September that kills the Phillies?

[GTown_Dave]

Why are you torturing us like this ... WHY?!?!

[SLO Phan]

And now taking Mini-Mart out? Stop the insanity!

[SLO Phan]

Astros going with they closer for a 5 out save. L.A. can't believe the Astros burned their last lefty on Howard.

[Can't beat the Astros]

Glad we have Nix under contract for next season. Excellent signing by RAJ.

[bullit]

i don't think this kind of baseball is not to be unexpected from an aged team in the post greenie era. especially going from the bank and it's white noise levels over 100 db and the kind of juice that can provide to this near empty airplane hanger.

[Iceman]

G-Town- you are wrong. I'm sorry for pointing it out (again). Your argument has no basis in fact.

[MG]

Astros about to win only their 2nd series at home since the ASB.

[GTown_Dave]

Iceman: yawn.

[bullit]

sorry, ignore the second "not"

[lorecore]

here we go, top of the order against a closer going for 5 outs.

[Chris Wheeler]

No doubles defense!

[SLO Phan]

Rollins single-handedly trying to will this team to victory.

[wes covington's ghost]

Just a hit boys.

[GTown_Dave]

Credit to J-Roll, he's been busting a** this series while most of his teammates have appeared physically & mentally dead.

[MG]

Still sticking with my 'Poor Man's Wayne Comes' comparison for Aumont too.

Howard and Halladay haven't been terrible but they didn't get the job done either. Phils can only hope that rest and time help them to recuperate a bit because if these 2 guys are real contributors next season the Phils won't make the playoffs next year.

[Iceman]

At least Rollins showed up to win today.

How many 350 foot flyouts can you hit in one four game series?

[Iceman]

MG- did you happen to catch the two hits Aumont gave up?

[lorecore]

hell yea lets get chooch to the plate.

[Brooklyn Phillies]

CAN THE IBB BACKFIRE AGAiN?????

[wes covington's ghost]

Chooch looks a bit tired..

[joe l]

I would have pitched to Howard. /shrugs

[lorecore]

season = over

[GBrettFan]

I had to do other stuff around the house & when I heard it was 7-4 turned off the TV & radio. Too painful. Licking my wounds.

Now I see it's 7-6. At least the team didn't give up.

We really are not a playoff team this year - Getting better after the AS break didn't change that fact - It just showed that we aren't a last-place team, either, fortunately. Although for about a week, I thought maybe I was wrong and we had it in us after all. But it wasn't our year.

[GTown_Dave]

L.A. lamenting losing three of four to one of the "worst teams [he has] ever seen in his years in the game".

That about sums it up.

[wes covington's ghost]

Sweep at the hands of the Muts should erase all the good will and excitement of the last 3 or 4 weeks.What a shame.

[joe l]

Good riddance to Houston. Can we leave them MiniMart stuffed in the back of the left field train as a parting gift?

[Mini Mart]

Two for three, bitches. Can't carry the team by myself, ya know???

[Five-4-One]

Time to play Babe Ruf for the rest of he season.

Congratulations to the Phillies for destroying, in one series, all of
the positivity built over the second half of this season.

At least there is the silver lining in that the Phils can be deluded into the belief that this roster has enough to win. The offense is still seriously flawed and Halladay has regressed to the point where assuming that the starting pitching will be enough to overcome the offense has been proven wrong.

[Rich D]

"Sweep at the hands of the Muts should erase all the good will and excitement of the last 3 or 4 weeks.What a shame."

Agree, Wes. The series in New York has the potential to be brutal, especially having to face R.A. Dickey.

[clout]

Iceman: Watching you trying to correct ridiculous errors of fact by BL posters here reminds me of an English professor trying to teach literature in an insane asylum.

For the record, those of us who actually watched the game are aware of the dumb luck nature of the hits the 'Stros got in the 7th.

As for GTown, his posts are pure entertainment and not meant to be taken seriously. It is a caricature.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

The last time the Phillies missed th playoffs, the season effectively ended in Houston. Some ugly symmetry to it.

[Kutztown Fan]

I go away for the weekend, and the Phillies crap the bed. Im glad I didn't watch the futility yesterday and today. At least the Eagles won.

[Chris "Wheels" Wheeler]

I'm going to miss coming to Houston. Harry and I did some of our best skirt chasing in the "Space City." WHo can ever forgot the twin sisters from Hogeye.

[Pblunts]

BAP- that runner on 2nd in the 7th that we debated Cholly should move with one out? How would that look right about now? I am sick and tired of the "Cholly keeps things positive all time, that has to be worth a lot" mantra. How many games does he give away each season with his clear inability to actually competently manage a baseball game? Guess what? This year is a clear indicator where that will mean the difference betwwen making the playoffs and making tee times.

Please, please find a new manager next year.

[GBrettFan]

What will the offseason look like and how long 'til April?

I'm rooting for:
1) Pirates
2) Reds
3) Dodgers & Victorino

And in the AL:
1) Orioles
2) A's

[Pblunts]

Correction: No outs.

And f-ing A for real: season=over.

[GBrettFan]

If by some miracle the Phillies pull off the snowball's chance in hell, I'll root for them, of course. Just to be clear.

[Phlipper]

"As for GTown, his posts are pure entertainment and not meant to be taken seriously. It is a caricature."

Thanks for that explanation. I always thought that his posts were the opinions of a bizarrely negative fan who uses ridiculous logic to confirm his biases.

Now that you put them in that light, I can see how no one could actually be that bizarrely negative without it being an intentional caricature.

[Meyer]

It should be apparent to most BL'ers that most of regulars never played the game.

[bay_area_phan]

Professor Iceman:

Having now read through the game thread, I will respond to your questions/comments about B.J. Upton, Youk, and concerns about the owners spending money.

First, on the money thing. You have the wrong guy. I love that they spend money and I sincerely hope they keep spending it. I just want them to spend it wisely. You and clout and TTI like to point out that we don't know the amount of the Phillies' budget. But we don't need to know the specific amount to know that it is not enough for them to sign every player we'd like them to sign -- and to then go out and sign marquee replacements if the original signings don't work out. Hence, they will be forced to make choices, both in the short and long-term.

Imprudent long-term contracts diminish a team's choices, or force them into bad choices. Thanks to imprudent contracts, we were forced to go into this season relying on an injury-ravaged, badly declining 3rd baseman, and a 40+ year old reliever coming off a major injury. An imprudent contract has also left us starting a 1st baseman with a negative WAR, and a .167 average against LHP, but who can't be platooned -- let alone replaced -- because he's on the books for so much money. And so on.

Because imprudent contracts have downstream consequences, and because I feel quite certain that Kevin Youkilis will command a 3-year deal, I think he'd be a really stupid signing. As we speak, the guy is hitting .237. He walks & has decent (not great) power but he'll be 34 before opening day & he's on an unambiguous, and alarmingly fast, downward trend.

B.J. Upton, on the other hand, I think would be a fine signing. I wish he hit for higher average and didn't strike out so much. But he's a decent offensive player at a position of need for the Phillies and he's young enough that he still has the possibility of getting better. At the very least, he isn't likely to get worse over the next 3 or 4 years -- which surely can't be said of Youkilis.

[bay_area_phan]

Pblunts: "that runner on 2nd in the 7th that we debated Cholly should move with one out? How would that look right about now."

I have two answers. Answer 1 is that you are engaging in a fallacy when you start with the assumption that the bunt would have succeeded in getting the runner to the next base. It very often doesn't.

My second answer is that even a successful bunt would have simply put a man on 3rd base with 1 out. Rollins, the next hitter, struck out -- which wouldn't have scored anyone. Then the next guy was hit by a pitch, then Utley flied out. If things had played out the same way, the runner would not have scored. I can't prove that things would have played out the same way, but you can't prove they wouldn't have. In fact, given how many guys the Phillies have stranded on 3rd this year, I think you're really reaching to assume that he would have scored if we had bunted him to 3rd.

However, on the larger issue of Cholly's competence, or lack thereof, we agree.

[wes covington's ghost]

bap- glad you've come around on Youkilis. Let's hope Roob concurs.

[DH Phils]

BAP: Good posts, I agree completely.

As for the events of this weekend and the past week, I think it's silly to say they crapped the bed, or they played down to the Astros' level, or whatever. They're just a mediocre team. Sometimes mediocre teams improbably go 7-0 (when you would expect 4-3 or 5-2), and sometimes they improbably go 1-3 when you expect 3-1.

This team is just not playoff-caliber right now. Sometimes teams that are not playoff-caliber make the playoffs, but I wouldn't expect it.

As for the Phillies' playoff odds, their chances are still better than they were this time last week, for what that's worth.

[pbunts]

BAP, I hear what you are saying, but it's impossible to say JRoll or anybody else would have done the same thing if there was a bunt or not.

I just felt strongly that trying to move the guy there to third base to try and get another run made the most sense. We'll never know. But it's increasingly tiresome trying to figure out what the hell Chollie is thinking when he manages a game.

[NEPP]

Well, season over now.

Way to go, team.

[Buy sell]

What anticipation coming into Houston, what a major belly flop as to the results this weekend's series in Houston

And the way tthe Phillies played thus weekend --- uninspired, (with a few exceptions.)

And the team was managed. ---- without logic and imagination.

Risp - non existent - with a few exceptions

Relief pitching - inconsistent, and disappointing

[bay_area_phan]

I get the logic of bunting a guy from 1st to 2nd. I usually think it's the wrong choice, especially early in the game. But, if it works, at least it gives you a 2-hitter window to do something that could not have been done without the bunt: get a run across the plate with but one additional hit.

On the other hand, if you have a fast runner on 2nd, you don't need to bunt him to 3rd in order for him to score him on a single. He will already score on most singles. The benefit of getting him to 3rd is that now he can also score on groundouts, fly balls, WPs or PBs. But the latter two don't happen very often and the former two have to happen on the very next AB in order for the bunt to have been worth it. They can't happen with 2 outs, since the grounder or fly ball would be the 3rd out of the inning. So, whereas bunting a guy from 1st to 2nd gives you a 2-AB window to score him in ways that he otherwise would not have scored, bunting a fast guy from 2nd to 3rd really only gives you a 1-AB window to do so. The odds of everything going according to Hoyle -- a successfully-executed sacrifice, followed immediately by a grounder, deep fly, WP or PB -- are simply too slim to justify giving up the out.

[GBrettFan]

I just saw this article - late, I know, but wanted to share - top 8 Victorino moments as a Phillie:

http://www.phillyburbs.com/sports/phillies/phils-ville/for-top-shane-victorino-moments/article_aeffd7b6-db2c-11e1-9ec7-0019bb30f31a.html#.UCehKmLgcxo.twitter

[Mini Mart]

"Good riddance to Houston. Can we leave them MiniMart stuffed in the back of the left field train as a parting gift?"

Hey, I resemble that remark! I'm like the only dude swinging a bat this series!

[3r0ck]

Thankful I went to the Eagles game today. Didn't even look to see the Phillies score until now.

Boy the Linc was rocking - at least the Eagles are winning.

[can_of_corn]

What makes the Houston losses even more frustrating is that despite our mediocrity and the Astros’ abysmal record, we had so much more at stake than they did. To them, it was another game; to us, possibly do-or-die in terms of the WC. One would think that there would be so much more energy and clutch play (yes, with a few exceptions)

Watching the Cards/Dodgers in the 12th and am hoping I won’t have to watch another Cards celebration.

I share GBF’s rooting interests (whenever the Phils are actually mathematically out of it.) It would be nice to see the Pirates and Os in the World Series. Hey, if the long shot Os go on to win the World Series, Thome would finally get his ring, no?

[MG]

Lost 3 out of 4 to a team that has one series win since the ASB at home and still has a decent chance to push 110 losses.

Brief periods of joy & excitement this season around a lot of lulls and disappointment. Only hope this isn't the start of a longer stretch & return to an extended bout of mediocrity.

[MG]

Iceman - No but I did see he had 7 balls, 7 strikes, walked the first batter he faced, and had real trouble throwing anything near the plate today.

Desperately need a veteran RHP reliever who can set up and the issue is that there won't be a ton of options on the market & several other teams have the exact same need. Amaro's going to get have to get creative to fill it.

[Fatalotti]

I would probably have been disappointed if the Phils had simply taken 3 of 4. But to LOSE 3 of 4? If you have aspirations of chasing down a playoff spot from the brink of death, you simply can't lose to a team like the Astros. They are a disgrace of a team, and the Phillies just simply crashed hard.

But as someone pointed out earlier, when you're watching a mediocre team, mediocre results are to be expected.

[clout]

BAP: You understand, of course, that Upton will command way more money than the others you mention. And that his OPS+ for the last 4 years is 102. These are allegedly his peak years.

Upton would be a very, very expensive tiny upgrade from Victorino. Assuming his numbers don't decay.

I hope Amaro doesn't take that gamble.

[clout]

Maybe it's just me, but I'd like to see more of De Fratus and less of Diekman.

I'd like to see more of Ruf too, although, unlike virtually every other poster here, I remain skeptical.

[Will Schweitzer]

As long as this team is counting on Ryan Howard to spark the offense, the team will be in decline.

As the Atlanta Braves have demonstrated, teams built on pitching are perpetual contenders, but rarely do they get the job done.

If a dime of money this winter goes toward the bullpen or the rotation, Amaro will have failed to address the needs of this ballclub.

[Fatalotti]

Will, the Braves had some very good offensive teams. Tje 1998 Braves team had Javy Lopez (catcher), with a 124 OPS+, Galaraggo (1B) with a 157 OPS+, Larry Wayne with a 148 OPS+, Andruw Jones playing CF with a 116 OPS+, and hell, even their backup catcher had a 145 OPS+.

Being built on pitching is the smart way to go, as we learned last year. The best team doesn't always win.

If you're going to build your team on

[Fatalotti]

If you're going to build your team on anything, pitching is the way to go first.

[clout]

Fatalotti: Worst spelling of El Gato Grande's name ever.

[clout]

Will Schweitzer is of the opinion that you can build a team to win a 7-game series in October.

[Fatalotti]

Oh yeah, I yucked up Galarraga's name something special.

[bay_area_phan]

clout: The only other guy I mentioned was Youk, and I have no idea if Upton will command more than him. More in years perhaps. I don't know about more in dollars.

That said, it's not like I am fixated on Upton. I mentioned Upton and Youk only because Iceman specifically asked me about them. If Upton commands a contract far in excess of his worth, I would look elsewhere.

[GTown_Dave]

I've got a lot of issues w/ the Phillies offense, but it seems to me 6 runs -- 1/3 of which were driven in by Howard -- ought to have been enough to beat Houston. The bullpen sucks, & if finding good relief pitching is a roll of the dice, so be it. The Phillies need to gamble. Internal options have been given extensive auditions, & all have failed.

[NEPP]

Upton probably gets a 3-4 year deal...at a pretty good AAV given his power/speed combo.

[Iceman]

MG- I am not surprised you didn't see the hits. The first hit was a jam shot that was one of the weirdest bloops I've ever seen. It was a very good pitch and he got the result he wanted. The second was chopped right in front of the plate and bounced ten feet in the air over a drawn-in Mini's head. Another complete fluke.

Yeah, he walked a guy. And he's probably not the 8th inning guy. But he pitched into awful luck today. The bigger problem was Bastardo coming in and walking a guy/giving up a line smash down the line. His stock as fallen dramatically. He can't even be counted on in the 7th inning at this point.

[bay_area_phan]

The 2 hits off of Aumont were definitely cheap. But his command was terrible and he fell behind every hitter he faced. He was unlucky to give up those hits. But, with the way he was pitching, he was lucky that the only hits he gave up were unlucky ones.

[Conway Twitty]

Playoff odds?

You have a better chance of being waited on by Roseanne Barr at your local Chic-Fil-A.

[Slocs]

Houston has done this to us so many times in a failed stretch run. The two BS's by Wagner and others but this is by far the most humbling. It takes a special manager to lose 3 of 4 to one of the worst teams every fielded. But the Bullpen has been just terrible. I think Dubee has got to go. How many pitchers have gotten to the bigs to just flounder.

[Ben Cherington]

"Desperately need a veteran RHP"

You can have either Dice-K or John Lackey! Hell, you can have 'em both! But wait, there's more! Not only will you get to craptastic RHP, and the set of steak knives, we will throw in our manager, Bobby Valentine! All this for one low, low, low price of whatever-is-still-owed-on-their-contracts! Act now, limited time offer!

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Come on Ben, the team may be dumb, but it's not stupid.

[Ben Cherington]

(chuckles evilly) Dude, how do you think Mini Mart got so much playing time? I bought the pix he had of Cholly and RooB with the German Shepherd, the 300-lb bearded lady, and the 3-gallon tub of lard. They will make *whatever* trade I "suggest".

[MG]

G'Town Dave - Agreed. The Phils need to sign one or two veteran RHP relievers. Literally have auditioned everyone who was at the AA and above this year (maybe with the exception of Simon who they acquired via trade) and were found to be wanting.

They have 2 guys (De Fratus, Aumont) who might be capable of being backend bullpen arms. That's it.

[Bubba]

During the good stretch the players , almost to a man, gave the press the "We're playing one game at a time" mantra.
Time for them to start believing their own BS.
Major embarrassment in TX is history, get a few cold ones on the plane, forget it, and for heavens sake beat up on the f'in Mets tomorrow.

[Dragon]

The fat lady saw that debacle in Houston. She is now tuning up her vocals and is about to break into song at any moment.

[Bubba]

To quote the same source
"It ain't over 'til it's over"

But I see your point Dragon. It was a brutal trip to Houston.

[Luis]

The offense has problems known this for last 2 years. Despite the numbers and the rankings 3rd in the league at this or that category. There was always been underlying problems since about the 2010. These problems just progressed as these players got older and injured. The trio of all stars are still there just running at about 70% capacity. A true 8th inning guy needs to be signed until the Phils can solve the MLB guys as oppose to the AAAA from there recent callups or auditions. Next year might be as bad if Rube thinks he can trot out a starting OF composed of entirely of backups.

[Chuck A.]

Watch them sweep the Mets and climb right back into it.... just enough to tease us more. I'd almost rather have them just concede the thing and play the last 15 games as a prelude to Spring Training.

[awh]

Unwatchable. Just unwatchable.

[R.Billingsly]

It's funny, actually. There were scenarios envisioned for this week -- dream scenarios, mind you -- of what it would take to get the Phils within a game of the 2d WC and really put pressure on the other teams.

Almost ever possible thing worked in the Phils' favor, except one...THE PHILLIES!

I'm still going to watch. I'm still going to keep hope alive. But, losing 3 of 4 to a historically bad baseball team when they are near "must win" games is inexcusable.

[squads]

This is all Mike "Mush" Missanelli's fault. He called the Phillies run up until the Astros series "a pipe dream," but changed his tune once it hit 3 games back. All of a sudden "there is almost no way the Phillies DON'T make the playoffs." Mush in full effect

[Iceman]

BAP- he's lucky he only got unlucky? Right.

The guy was wild but he made two pitches that should have resulted in two outs. Let's slam him because the other pitches he threw were out of the strike zone, though. Let's leave aside that nobody made solid contact off him.

[Chuck A.]

It was a "pipe dream" when it started, it was a pipe dream in the middle if it and it's still a pipe dream. Nothing changed except that the pipe just got a lot longer.

[Kutztown Fan]

Did anyone else get an invoice for Phillies post-season tickets in their e-mail? Really bad timing.

[limoguy]

So, will the Phillies decide to compete in 2013 and make the moves during the offseason to make that happen?

[RK]

Some of us actually noted here the Phils awful record in Houston prior to the series

[Fatalotti]

Some of us actually noted here the Phils awful record in Houston prior to the series

Posted by: RK | Monday, September 17, 2012 at 09:32 AM

Congratulations! Can you help me out with the PowerBall, too?

[dons]

This team will be worse next year.Doc no longer gets over 92MPH and that is only a few times a game. Lee hangs everything near the plate. Howard is a called third strike waiting to happen. No relief pitching. A closer that blows games with the HR ball, Jimmy popups playing when he feels like it. Who's in CF, what's in LF and I don't know is in RF. , But at least Mini Mart will be @ third base where he is closer to UC.

[RK]

The team will be worse next year if current management believes it can win with this team

[Lake Fred]

Even though I work in Houston and like the idea of being able to see the phightin's in person from time to time, I'm now thinking that Selig is doing the Phillies a favor by removing Houston from their annual schedule in making Houston an AL team.

[bunt third strike]

Let's talk about our lineup next year. Who's the new OF?

[Sil Campusano]

Lake Fred: you're right. Couldn't hurt not to play them. We lose to these guys every year, no matter who is on the team. They posted the Phils' win-loss record since 2005 against the Astros during the TV wrapup yesterday, and it is woefully bad. The fact that we desperately need wins right now, and that the Astros stink something fierce this year, make it seemingly the most frustrating situation this year.

[Sil Campusano]

Yo, new thread.

[Wesley Culbertson]

I'm having a tiny problem I can't seem to be able to subscribe your feed, I'm using google reader by the way.