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Friday, September 07, 2012

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I did a quick search on both transcripts, and the name "Martinez" doesn't appear in either.

Clearly, the most pressing issue was not broached.

Fatalotti, search for 'versatility'. It shows up a couple of times when describing Mayberry and Kendrick.

RE: the lorecore/aksmith debate over Adam Morgan vs. Jesse Biddle, askmtih is wrong as he almost always is when it comes to prospects.

Virtually every scouting service ranks Biddle higher. As for Morgan "having the higher floor," BA does a pretty good job of ranking that. Floor is considered risk level of ever making the big leagues. In other words, a toolsy guy might have huge upside, but he is often also high risk of never making it at all. A skill guy might not have the talent to be a star, but he's got a better chance to actually make it to MLB. Same goes with pitchers. BA rates the risk level, or floor, the same for Biddle and Morgan, but ranks Biddle the much higher prospect because he's got better stuff.

BAP - I didn't find the evidence that you cite all that supportive of the idea that they were willing to move Rollins at the deadline. I mean, every player has a price and can be moved, but I doubt Amaro is itching to make this team's IF problems any bigger by moving their SS and sliding in a player on the current roster to take his place. Those deadline rumors were pretty weak.

Fatalotti - re your 1023 post. I'd think there's enough noise there (his age, the actual impact of PEDs or whatever he took) to have a wait and see approach with Galvis. He's a long way from polished offensively. Like any 21 year old this side of Mike Trout, he may flame out or he may develop. He shouldn't be a starter in 2013 unless there is nothing in the market and Utley has a repeat of 2012.

Sophist, I just think that any plans to start Galvis next year are foolhardy. He should be starting in AAA, and be allowed to develop. he showed nothing last year that leads me to believe he's even close to ready to be a starter at this level.

JW, IMO he's a reasonably competent GM, and desrves credit fot the positive things he's done and criticism for the negative, but the words "humility and honesty" ought to never be used in the same paragraph, much less the same sentence, with the words "Ruben Amaro, Jr.".

Sophist: In a year when the CF FA are most abundant, why would you take on the risk of Mayberry at CF for next year?

I would consider something like that for a 2B/3B position that offers little to no alternatives, but trying to "steal" a year of CF from John Mayberry Jr is such an avoidable risk that I can't imagine it'd be worth taking.

FAtti, RAJ thinks mini-mart is a MLB baseball player. Otherwise he wouldn't be on the roster.

As I said above, RAJ desrves both credit and criticism.

The mini-mart situation fals into the latter category.

From last thread: BAP, Iceman, and Fatalotti, I agree with all of you. I guess I mistook pessimism about Galvis in '13 as pessimism about Galvis in the future. I agree, Galvis should spend '13 developing in AAA.

Can Vic play 2B or 3B? Maybe they should sign him in the offseason and try him out there.

If Minimart is on the roster next year I am turning in my fan card.

DH, I'm on record of saying that if Galvis bat can develop even a little bit, he'd be a viable starting SS in this league. But we have to see that bat develop first, you know.

Fatalotti - I agree that Galvis' proper role for a competitive club is as a September call up. The problem the Phils have is a lack of options for 3B and continuing uncertainty about Utley (you would think). I don't think it should be the plan from Game 1, but I don't fault the Phils for at least considering all options: including Utley at 3B and Galvis at 2B for 2013, and then loading the FA money they have into the OF and pen.

Then again, I'm not easily troubled by a GM's public statements and think the Phils will do everything they can to avoid that scenario. But it's not like Adrian Beltre or even someone thoroughly average is a FA this offseason. Amaro's usual fault is signing the wrong big money FA. Not placing too much trust in unproven players.

Reading between the lines on Amaro...

-He's very high on Galvis.
-Kratz has impressed, but will still need to have a hot spring (relative to other options) to lock the backup job up.
-They still have no coherent plan for managing Utley's health--or if they do, it hasn't been communicated to Amaro--which is beyond scandalous.
-Polanco is not being considered for next year, at least as the starting 3B.

Could the bench next year be: Frandsen, Galvis, Kratz, Schierholtz, Mayberry Jr?

I don't think anyone here is pining for Galvis in a starting role, but he could wind up in a bench role.

Sophist: In a year when the CF FA are most abundant, why would you take on the risk of Mayberry at CF for next year?

Yeah, I wasn't necessarily defending the idea just pointing out how close Mayberry is to adequate provided he can play their near full-time and put up 90-100 OPS+ production.

Like any other downgrade, they could skip on the CF market if it meant they went all in on some other position market. Unlike 3B or other places, they at least have something of an adequate player for CF.

Also reading between the lines, there's no chance that Mayberry will be the starter in CF next season.

I have plenty of beefs with Amaro as GM, but let's face facts: we'd be looking at his tenure a whole lot differently if not for the epic October chokes which were quite beyond his control. He ends up looking bad, but the team was a couple coin flips away from a really impressive run.

That said, it's pretty clear that the organization is rotten with nepotism and the "good old boys" mentality, that the player development side is underwhelming at best, and that Amaro has made some fantastically bad calls, notably on Howard, Pence and Papelbon.

I think that the love for Galvis is dumbfounding. In a way, I get it, because he's young on a team that's old, and he's fantastic to watch play defense.

But the idea that you would move around someone like Chase Utley just to get a guy into the lineup who is likely to be one of, if not the, worst offensive regulars in all of baseball is sort of shocking. I simply can't imagine it happening.

However, I do like Amaro's thoughts on the bullpen: "That’s the problem with going outside and getting bullpen guys and with bullpen guys in general. Year to year, when guys don’t have track records, sometimes you don’t know what you’re going to get. Sometimes you just have to get lucky. Or sometimes you get unlucky."

That could have been written by me.

The Phillies farm system got Halladay, Lee and Oswalt. It's only underwhelming because of those multiple deals. Seems like they are primed for a bounceback with some of the younger guys getting their first taste of pro ball. However, they don't seem to have any blue chip prospects. That's why you will see the Phillies right around 20 in system rankings in the spring.

Oh and it's underwhelming also because of that horrid trade for Pence.

I don't think they'd be moving Utley just to get Galvis in the lineup. I think they're trying Utley out at 3B because it gives them more flexibility in the FA market (even marginal) and in case something goes wrong next year. I don't get the sense the Phils are in a rush to get Galvis' bat back in the lineup. I get the sense that they are planning for all kinds of contingencies given the nature of the IF market and their internal options. But I do get that it makes people feel good to pat themselves on the back and feel smarter than the Phils GM.

Interesting article on Wolf in a relief role with the Orioles. Goes without saying that if he's willing to pitch in relief, he should be a target in the off-season.

Reading the first part of that interview, it seems the FO is going to make some changes in that coaching staff.

It's pretty clear that Rube's ideal 2013 includes Galvis at 2B (and Utley at 3B). Other than that, he sounds sensible.

Jack, unfortunately, I think the key phrase in that sentiment is "when guys don’t have track records." Combined with his later positive comments on Papelbon, it shows that Amaro's newfound realization of high reliever variance doesn't apply to his most costly blunder. Maybe he won't shell out for another marginal guy like Qualls, but he hasn't yet figured out that you don't give $50m to a 60-inning guy.

Well if it's a given that Manuel will be back next year then we should all pray that every single guy stays healthy and produces to their highest level. Because outside of that we'll likely be in the same situation again.

Barring injury, I can't imagine a scenario in which Frandsen and Kratz don't start the 2013 season on our bench. All three OF positions are up for grabs. I imagine that some combination of Mayberry, Nix, Schierholtz, and possibly Ruf or even Pierre could be a part of a corner OF platoon or be the 4th and 5th OF. I'm interested to see who they keep between Nix and Schierholtz.

As for the 5th bench spot, I think we all know who has a lock on that...

I thought it was telling when he spoke of clubhouse chemistry and complacency. I would like to know who, specifically, he has in mind. Are they veterans or guys who are relatively new to the team? There aren't many vets that I think it would be; Utley and Howard busted it to get back in the lineup, Hamels, Halladay and Lee all seem to be very motivated, same with Chooch. Maybe Rollins? Unless he meant guys that he shipped out, like Vic and Blanton and maybe Pence. Interesting.

Some thoughts of mine on part 1 of the Amaro interview:

1. The bullpen....he thought Qualls threw well? Really? He cites tracks record for being tough when assessing a bullpen arm. Qualls had been horrendous in 2010 and 2011 and literally no one offered him a deal this winter. He had a 2.09 ERA in Petco in 2011...great. All 3 of us could post that # in what is the baseball equivalent to Yellowstone.

2. More bullpen...Contreras? He was legitimately banking on a guy coming off of elbow surgery who is also 126 years old? Stutes...that kid was on fumes in September last year...hello! Something was up. He was solid for a stretch but went south fast. I agree on Bastardo...he was a letdown and I wanted him to close for this team however of late he has been solid.

@Outta...I think Victorino was pretty mopey all year so my bet is on him.

"BAP - I didn't find the evidence that you cite all that supportive of the idea that they were willing to move Rollins at the deadline."

I haven't read through the last thread, but you must have me confused with another poster. I'm quite sure I never said anything that remotely broached the subject of trading Rollins -- let alone suggest they were ready to do so.

So who does Ruben have the bigger hard-on for? Doc or Galvis?

Sorry BAP. It was Iceman. Long Friday.

No questions to Rube on how much guidance he gets by reading BeerLeaguer?

Salisbury is dancing around the key issue again.

So we are supposed to just disregard multiple sources claiming Rollins was on the table and the asking price in prospects was low? I can see dismissing one, but it was multiple sources.

Also, I'm not sure I buy the notion that Amaro is just trying to boost Galvis's confidence. He has gone above and beyond doing that, and I haven't heard him wax poetic on any other potential contributor the way he has on Galvis, the prime example of that being Cloyd.

He loathes Cloyd. It's funny because he loves Kendrick.

Iceman -- Let me cite one of the many instances where I agree. Jimmy Rollin's "attitude" issues -- and the ensuing lack of hustle -- arose directly from trying to move the guy in the off-season.

The remainder here is speculation on my part. Jimmy Rollin's is a terrific shortstop with -- and here’s the enigmatic part -- a terrific personality. I'm sure he was beyond steamed when he learned he was a pawn in one of RAJ's demented "tradathons", and that Freddie G. appeared to be a favored son. If I'm Jimmy I'm pretty go88dammed furious; I'd want out.

The rumors were mostly of the nature of other teams -- like the As and Dodgers -- reaching out to the Phillies with interest in Rollins. After a search, I only see one rumor saying the Phils actively tried to move Rollins and its from Trollney saying they "dangled" him. Anyone has a price of course. I just don't take the sum of these rumors as proof the Phil's have strong interest in making their already complicated IF situation worse by just swapping Rollins for some prospects and sticking Galvis there. That would be an absolute fire sale move -- may as well trade everyone else too.

Cut: what offseason are you referring to? He was a FA last offseason.

Pretty sure there was a bizarre quote in one of the Philly papers saying they wanted to move him b/c he couldn't carry the team when Utley/Howard was out.

Sophist -- My bad; it was not an off-season move that was contemplated. It was (probably) worse; that is, before the deadline.

Bed Beard -- You're correct. What a mell of a hess of a season for Jimmy Rollins. Regardless (knock wood) he's doing his "iron-man" thing again. Go Jimmy!

cut, "hell of a mess of season"?

What the hell are you talking about?

Jimmy is on pace to have 20 HRs and 30 SBs this year, and is on pace for 4 WAR. He's having a fantastic defensive season, fantastic baserunning season, and his 96 WRC+ is a shade lower than his career 101 wRC+.

And this is all at age 33. Individualistically speaking, I'd say he's having a hell of a season.

Fatalotti - Don't let the facts get in the way of a good indignation fest.

I've pointed in the past that, based on Jimmy's contract of $36, and the going rate of $4.5 M/WAR for FAs last year, Jimmy only needs to post ~8 WAR over the life of the contract to live up to it.

If he knocks out half of that in his first season, that contract will be a steal.

Fatti, the problem with the 2012 Phillies seems to have been Amaro was counting on guys to pick up the slack early for Howard and Utley, and some of those guys - Rollins and Mayberry are two that come immediately to mind - are 2nd half players.

The injuries to the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen (Contreras, Stutes, De Fratus) also contributed to the problem.

Its all Jimmy's fault for not turning in another MVP type season with Howard/Utley out.

Because that is a fair assessment of how to judge players.

In fact, it's probably the best contract Rube has signed as the GM. If Halladay bounces back next year and has his usual dominant, 7 WAR season, that contract might provide slightly more value, but Halladay was almost hell-bent on coming here. Jimmy played the market last year, and RAJ just played it better.

The problem for the 2012 Phillies was, by and large, that the starting pitching, whether through injuires or flat-out under-performance, crapped the bed in parts of May and all of June.

If Halladay is healthy all season and his dominant self, if Lee doesn't have one of the weirdest, most inconsistent seasons of his career, if Worley doesn't develop an injury in his elbow and if Blanton is even just nearly league average instead of being awful, this team is likely in the Wild Card hunt right now.

And remember, better starting pitching would have mitigated the damage that even this bullpen could have done.

That's my opinion, at least.

"refreshing the header once in a while with original partner content"

Good job, JW. Now you can have that box checked for the year-end review.

Fat, I agree that starting pitching is probably the fly in the 2012 ointment, if we're looking at a singular aspect of the team that caused us to be on the outside looking in (though the early offense could also take a good look in the mirror).

Granted, we can hope that Lee resorts to the guy who's getting paid like an ace, and that Hallday stays healthy (and I'm going to work under the assumption that Cole is his usual dominant self). None of that is especially outlandish to assume.

However, that brings me to the 4/5 spot, as well as our usual need for a 6th starter. I don't know if I'm as bullish on 2013 Worley resembling 2011 Worley (something they probably need). I have always preferred KK in the 6th starter/swingman role, but need will move him to the regular 5th starter spot, as RAJ mentions. I don't love the idea, but if he can perform even close to what he's resembled recently (on a more consistent basis), I'm fine with it. That does leave us void a 6th starter. I'm not getting the feeling that RAJ loves Cloyd (and I'm not sure how he'd fare in that role).

It just feels like we should have been more "solid" going into 2012 than we're currently projecting for 2013. Considering how 2012 turned out, I don't know that I feel so great about that. Though RAJ could always surprise us and goose up on another starter in the off season.

Sophist- there were two reports. One from Olney on west coast teams claiming the price on Rollins was 'surprising low' (admittedly paraphrasing). The other was from a local reporter claiming he was on the block because the team was disappointed in his leadership with the other offensive stalwarts (Utley and Howard) missing.

I think Olney is pretty useless, but I have a hard time thinking both of these stories were pulled out of thin air. Couple them with the glowing remarks about Galvis...I don't know. I'd like to give Amaro the benefit of the doubt (and I usually do- I'm one of his most consistent defenders here), but it seems pretty fishy to me. I also think the remark about complacency deserves an explanation.

New thread.

Here is what RAJ said when Salisbury asked him if he saw Galvis on the opening day roster in some capicity in 2013. He said "opening day roster"

RAJ: "I do. He’ll have to earn it, but I see it as a possibility."

How does that translate into them planning using him as a starter next year?

No this is what's going to happen the Phils are going to try and get by with pretty much what they have for 2013. They may tweek some spots but they aren't going big anywhere.they are going to wait till 2014 when the salary tax goes up then they'll add what they need

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