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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

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yes

I WANT TO BELIEVE

Baseball Heaven is becoming HELL ! Believe it!

Can the impossible become possible?

As long as the Phils don't do their annual crap-tastic late season performance against the Astros, we'll have a chance. And the Astros don't have Myers, so that helps.

i have been emotionally invested in this team since day one. for all of the pointless anger and frustration i've experience throughout this team's season, this current run enormously satisfying. i'm all in.

Should I tune in Gameday to Pirates-Reds or Braves-Brewers?

I'm actually more worried about Milwaukee than Pittsburgh, so I'm opting for Braves-Brewers -- though I reserve the right to liberally check in on the Pirates game.

I accept nothing less than a 91-71 final record.

In fantasy land:

- Phils overcome the Cards for the WC
- Beat the Giants in the playoffs
- Beat the Yanks in the WLCS
- Charlie Manuel retires and walks off into the sunset as a Philadelphia legend

Phillies really need to beat up the Astros & Mets, as they have done to the Rockies & Marlins.

Anyone remember last year when the Cards' end of year mantra was "Happy Flight?" I guess they aren't having a very happy flight right now.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are probably enjoying every minute--and every score update--en route to Houston.

"In the future we don't say yes, we say affirmative."

Affirmative.

This could be the best chapter of all.

Chooch coming back for this stretch run is perfect, and Kratz gives them enough as a backup that he won't need to be pushed to the limit like he was with Schneider behind him.

I, like surely everyone here, is all in on this race. I too have visions of a parade and the old gang taking a victory lap as the kids in the bullpen live it up during the parade.

Don't call it a comeback. They've been here for years.

Missed suicide squeeze by the Pirates to go ahead. yeah

This road trip is huge. They have got to put it to the Astros and Mets. They need to go 6-1 on this trip. A 1 or 2 game lead would be great going into that last homestand. Unlikely but great.

Maybe a week ago, no,

Now .. A week later..YES!

Why?

NOW, we are finding ways to win, when earlier we were finding ways to lose...

4.7% chance to make playoffs, up from 3! I would multiply it by 5.

Every season has a different vibe. Second half has been such a gift. Trying to take it easy but it's starting to feel pretty epic.

They really need to go 7-0...completely serious there. They need to win every single game till they're ahead in the WC standings and then just win 8 of 9 or 9 of 10.

"I've been guilty of it too, but the "Beerleaguer told me" schtick is basically just code for, "I was arguing with some guys on Beerleaguer about it, and I was right. Nya, nya, nya." Because, in point of fact, the regular posters who comprise Beerleaguer were all over the board about the merits or demerits of Hunter Pence -- just as they are all over the board about pretty much every subject under the sun. "Beerleaguer" never told anyone anything. Some guys on Beerleaguer did.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 08:53 PM


Translation = BAP has been wrong about more ridiculous comments on BLer than anyone can count.

"They really need to go 7-0...completely serious there. "

Why?

Why can't unpossible?!

Every year, people play the "if the lead team just plays .500 ball, the chaser would have to win out" game. I'd think by now the pundits would recognize that baseball is really streaky, so these purportedly impossible comebacks happen with some regularity. That said, this season as a 2006 vibe to me -- close but not enough.

"Translation = BAP has been wrong about more ridiculous comments on BLer than anyone can count."

There's that hyperbole I just can't get enough of.

Seeing as how the main goal I wanted out of this season was to gloat over my friend who's a Mets fan - anything else is gravy.

But if the Phils actually make the playoffs this season after being 9.5 games behind the Mets in early July, and after being so far back so late in the season, he won't be able to come back with trash-talk even if the Giants win another Super Bowl.

Phillies need to go all in. Shorten rotation if possible. Hope the real Doc shows up soon or did KK actually become the new doc. KK might be the 2nd half mvp. I am all the way in

What they need to do is win a few more games than anyone else in the race. That's all that we know. It would be nice to take all 7 on this trip and push the streak to 14.

Because they're still 3 full games back and there are other teams playing. Keep the pressure on.

I've been reading BLer for a while, and I don't think that it ever, ever has been as positive as the past couple of threads.

Can you imagine how negative the threads would be had the Phillies dropped from a couple of games up to be in the position they are now?

This is like Bizarro Beerleaguer.

Let's assume Dodgers win tonight to pull even with the Cards. Do we root for a split or Cards to get crushed knowing their upcoming creampuff schedule and the Dodgers more difficult one? Although unlikely, I don't think either team sweeps. I think a sweep might not actually be a good thing. It is late and my brain is fried, am I not thinking of this logically?

Who starts the WC game for the Braves? Hudson? Sheets? Medlen? Maholm? Chad Durbin?

I wouldn't shorten the rotation just yet. Cloyd won't be facing any killer lineups his next 2 starts. There's no need to potentially lessen the biggest strength this team has right now.
We can all say nonsense like "The 3 Aces makes $XXmillion a year so they should be able to pitch on short rest" or "If they're aces it's time to prove it" but it doesn't always work like that. Shortening the rotation is a risk. It generally lessens the effectiveness of all involved.

We need the Dodgers to lose tonight and the Dodgers and Cards to split. And the Phillies have to win about ten more in a row. That is all.

Pblunts: I think we root for a Dodgers sweep. After this, the Cardinals have 9 games with teams that stink and 6 with teams that will have clinched their division. This is their best remaining chance at losing a bunch of games.

Not good....Brewers take the lead.

Good....Cincinnati is winning.

BL used to be very positive probably up till and including 2009.

I won't go as far as to say that they have to win all 7 on the road trip, but at this point in the season, I don't know if it's far-fetched to say that they can't lose a game against the woeful Astros. Simply have to beat that team every time you get a chance.

The Brewers make me nervous.

That team is just douchy enough to ruin everything with cheating lazy eyed punch face Ryan Braun and elephant man Cory Hart.

I'd say all they "need" to do is outplay the Cards/Dodgers by 1-2 games over the next week so that they get within 1-2 with 12 to play. Even that isn't strictly necessary. 5-2 will keep things interesting unless one of these other teams get hot.

But, yeah, win them all.

***I've been reading BLer for a while, and I don't think that it ever, ever has been as positive as the past couple of threads.***

The 2007 run was like this...as was 2008 in the playoffs and after.

Actually, Phlipper, that doesn't bear the slightest resemblance to what I meant. Welcome back, though. We missed you for those 2 months when the team wasn't doing well.

Jeez, it would be nice if Milwaukee stopped winning.

***But, yeah, win them all.***

Win the whole damn thing.

The Brewers remind me of the 2007 Rockies.

Smitty, disagree. We need a dodgers loss tonight and the dodgers to take at least three of 4 from the Cards.

The Cards schedule after that is a little soft, whereas LA's is a bit tougher.

So one vote for a split, one for a sweep. There may not be a clear cut answer. And yeah, I believe.

Game threads were also 90% about the games rather than debates about who was right about what in May.
I fall into it too.

Said they had to go 9-1 in this 10 game stretch against the dregs of the NL to get to 3-4 back. They are 6-0 so far. The Cards are 1-5.

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on perspective), this completely changes the expectations of how much they should shave off the lead before the level of competition each team is facing reverses. The aim should now be to trim it to a single game.

The Cards are in total gag mode, it would appear. So losing 3 of 4 to the Dodgers doesn't seem completely out of the question. In a weird twist, though, we will actually want to root for them to win a few games in LA against the tanking Dodgers and split with them. The Dodgers' schedule is brutal down the stretch. That team of mercenaries will be lucky to go .500 down the stretch.

If that scenario plays out, the Phils could manage to lose a game in Houston and still have this thing at 2 games with 15 games to play. If they sweep, it gets cut to a game with 15 to play, and it is no longer a pipe dream. As positive as I am though, I don't see a sweep in Houston. Yes, they are historically bad. But sheer probability (and looking at the pitching matchups- Cloyd on short rest, for one) tells me that it is highly unlikely for a team as lacking on offense as this one that they will manage to win 11 in a row. Certainly possible, but I'm hoping for 3 of 4. A split would obviously be a huge disappointment.

I continue to type this stuff out because ever since I wrote my delusion of hope post a week ago, they've done everything I said they had to do and St Louis has choked beyond anything I could have dreamed up (their one win was aided by a wild pitch in extra innings). So it's superstition at this point. A thought exercise. If I put thoughts on (Internet) paper, they will play out.

The Astros stink but managed to take 5 of their 15 games against the Reds this year. Yes, they'll be favored in all those games, but no team should get swept.

aksmith - considering the Cards remaining schedule, I'm rooting for the Dodgers to take at least 3 of those games. Dodgers play tougher teams later.

We're clearly starting to get into the Cardinals heads...that's why we need to push this. I think if we tie it up in the next week, the Cards will just take their ball and go home.

Hey Phlipper, do you have a bet with a Mets fan about which team will finish better? I feel like you mentioned it once, but haven't heard a word about it since.

Not every result is going to go our way down the stretch here....but that Pads sweep was HUGE!!!!

Think it should take anyone teetering on that line and bring them to belief.

Just keeping winning. It is never a disaster if we win on a given night (unless that night eliminates us, despite a W). Until then, I believe. Big trip, keep playing solid baseball, we will get the trip we need.

GO PHILS....feels good to love September for something other than the Eagles again

Milwaukee is legitimately starting to p*ss me off. How nauseating would be it be to play great down the stretch, chase down the Cardinals, Dodgers, and Pirates, and end up losing out to a team that was as far out of the WC race as we were only a few weeks ago?

t's kind of funny that for much of the season, the Phils' expected W-L was much better than their actual record.

Now their actual record is better than their expected W-L, albeit only slightly - but somehow it seems that they are playing much better baseball than they were when their actual W-L was worse than their expected W-L.

Kind of backwards from what I would predict.

Any chance the Braves go in the tank again?? not likely just fun to think about.

Fata - I also had a bet with MG. But he welched in the bet. Kind of surprised me.

How the fudge are the Brewers doing this? We know their offense was always good, but that pen get just as hot as ours?

That Astros team is absolutely awful. The PHillies have dug themselves a huge hole this year by losing game after game that they ought to have won (like their seasons series against the Mets, among others).

Point is, if you want to make up this deficit, it can be done with losses to the Astros, but right now, the Astros represent our easiest games on the schedule. A loss to them will be frustrating, and will mean we'd have to get that win back against stiffer competition.

And the Brewers don't seem to be going away, either.

You know, if the Phillies arent careful, they wont get a protected 1st round pick this winter.

"BL used to be very positive probably up till and including 2009."


gobay, not true. When the Phillies just missed in '06 and looked ilike they were out of it in '07 it was pretty bad around here.

If they can sweep the Astros and Mets, they will be at 14 in a row. That would set a modern era club record (13 in 1977). The would need a few more to best the 1887 record of 16. Go for it.

Fata - I also had a bet with MG. But he welched in the bet. Kind of surprised me.

Posted by: Phlipper (climbing back down off the Ben Frankin and headed to McMenaminsfor a burger and abrew) | Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 09:44 PM

Oh yeah, you never bring that one up, either.

I also see you're back to the ridiculously long handle shtick.

Damm, Doyers already up 2-0

"I also see you're back to the ridiculously long handle shtick."

Fata - this is a family blog.

Arbitrary cutting point: since July 27 (not including tonight)

MIL 27-17
243 RS, .280/.340/.471, 65 HR
190 RA, 384 K / 135 BB

PHI 26-17
172 RS, .251/.317/.393, 42 HR
153 RA, 369 K / 106 BB

Who ever said the Brewers have a Rockies 07 feel to them, I agree. They're concerning me big time.

Sophist, good work. Obviously, the Phils have been winning closer games.

That's because we're more clutch obviously.

And because we put a lineup out there with 2 pitchers hitting.

All in man. Gotta believe. Watching Halladay jumping around smiling and cheering and giving out high fives ... the team feels it, the fans feel it, let's do it. Break out the rally towels.

Mother effer. Brewers now up 8-2.

I cant begin to describe how much I despise the Brewers mainly due to my complete loathing of that Ed Hardy wannabe douche wagon Ryan Braun. I hated that creep long before it was revealed that he was juicing. And then he goes and gets a pass due to Fed Ex's store hours despite not just testing positive, but registering off the charts for testosterone. If this steakhead wasnt cheating and wasnt able to employ all 7 brain cells solely towards hitting a baseball, he'd probably be dealing meth out of the trunk of a car and dating a 16 year old IHOP waitress.

Btw, the Braves suck. They may be a playoff team but they are gutless.

Aaron Harang looks like a zombie.

The Phillies have made up 7.5 games on the Cardinals over a 19-game span. It wouldn't be any crazier to make up 8.5 on the Braves over a 19-game span (with 3 head-to-head).

It's extremely unlikely, but we're already in the extremely unlikely realm to even be in the position to be talking about this.

Brewers remaining schedule:

NYM (3)
@ PIT (3)
@ WSH (4)
@ CIN (3)
HOU (3)
SDG (3)

Not real easy, but the Mets are bums (against everyone except the Phils apparently) and Houston is miserable. That ten game road trip will be difficult for them and the Pittsburgh series might eliminate one of them.

I'd say they have reached 'mildly annoying' status but not anywhere near infuriating or anything like that. I'm more worried about catching teams at this point.

Agreed Ice. Mine is an irrational fixation.

Wouldn't it be a bitch if the Phillies playoff run is derailed by a team whose superstar was allowed to play because of mishandled urine sample?

If we dont make the playoffs, I would still take solace in the Braves also missing out due to another epic collapse.

"That team is just douchy enough to ruin everything with cheating lazy eyed punch face Ryan Braun and elephant man Cory Hart."

Pretty soon you'll only be able to read 541's crack analysis behind a paywall on WIPleaguer. The guy is going places.

Enjoyed the game live today . Great atmosphere, way more people interested in the game, staying for the end, and way fewer see and be seen types then there were .
Maybe Jimmy's frontrunners haven't caught up to the bandwagon just yet.
Unsung hero had to be Pete Orr, if he doesn't keep the inning going it's still a tie game.
Jimmy does know how atone for an error though!
2012 isn't such a wasted season after all.

I'm going to root for the Pirates to sweep the Brewers.

I have a feeling the Brewers will continue to keep pace with us, however.

Thanks for the plug Ice. Registering domain on GoDaddy shortly.

I'm not sure I get the sentiment that they need to win every remaining game or do what aksmith says and make this a 17-game winning streak. They aren't trying to chase down the Braves. The teams in front of them have choked enough that the Phils have a margin for error that they did not have before, albeit extremely small. If they lose a game to Houston, it isn't the end of the world.

What they have done, though, is raised their expectations enough that I don't think that anyone here would really tolerate another series loss to the pathetic Mets (not like what we will 'tolerate' here is relevant, but I digress). I do believe it is important to close the gap almost entirely, if not entirely, before they have to face tougher competition. If the teams in front of them are folding now, watch how the noose tightens once they have no cushion at all. Make the last 12 games a sprint to the finish, with every game being the difference between leading or trailing, with no in between. I think that is important. But I don't think it's necessary to win another 10 in a row to do it.

Speaking of Ryan Braun, if you were going by sheer numbers, you'd probably have to vote him NL MVP again -- especially if Milwaukee gets into the playoffs or at least makes a strong run at it. Something tells me, though, that he has absolutely no chance of winning, thanks to his proven cheating. As of today, I'd say it will probably come down to McCutchen, Posey, and Molina. Votto & Chooch are fringe contenders, but both probably missed too much time. To me, it's a dead heat right now betewen the 2 catchers.

I see Posey as the curremt front runner.

Posey is far and away the front-runner for MVP right now.

Even if he is a whiny beyotch.

Catchers are always such a good sentimental choice when they are in the running. Voters eat that crap up. Not to mention the playoff team factor.


Personally i'd vote McCutchen.

BUCS LOSE!

Pirates lose.

He's probably the front-runner. I don't know about far and away. His numbers are better than Molina's but Molina is the best defensive catcher in baseball, if not the best defensive PLAYER in baseball. But that might not hold much sway with voters -- especially since the Cardinals look to be choking away their playoff spot.

And the Pirates are just 2 above .500...after being 16 games above .500 barely a month ago.

Think I just saw a headline that says Broxton will close for Reds.

Posey has a better OPS+ than McCutchen.

FWIW.

Offensively, Posey is far and away better tan Molina. Defensively, its exactly the opposite.

Per Coolstandings.com:

Phillies' wild card odds (after 143 games): 4.7%
'07 Phillies' odds of winning division after 143 games: 4.3%

I gave my remaining supply of cream to Buster.

MIL is 28-43 on the road. For some reason they don't worry me. Dodgers/Cards are more troubling.

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