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Monday, September 24, 2012

Comments

From the last thread: I'm not sure why hatred for Ross should preclude us from signing him. Home/Away splits aside (and I'm not necessarily sure that's completely indicative of the player he'd be away from Fenway), he's always killed LHP. That is a need on this team. The worst case scenario is having to platoon him with Brown or something. Best case scenario: he's the second best OF on the team, and he doesn't cost you more than 3 years/20 million.

If Brown's stock was still high- which unfortunately, I don't think it is, with any team- an idea could be a Worley-Brown-Pettibone package for Headley, then signing Ross and Pagan in the OF.

Upton's last 3 years:

2010: 106 OPS+, 38 2B, 18 HR, 42 SB
2011: 114 OPS+, 27 2B, 23 HR, 36 SB
2012: 111 OPS+, 27 2B, 26 HR, 30 SB

Why is Upton a terrible idea compared to a guy like Bourn (who strikes out a ton, has no power and whose entire game is based on his legs yet he'll be in his 30s when he comes here?)

Considering the options out there, Upton seems like a much better fit than Bourn.

Upton is a 109 OPS+ hitter in the last 6 seasons overall averaging 18 HR and 36 SB.

I will acquire both Upton brothers this offseason and sign Kate Upton to play LF.

Can you imagine the TMac "city of brotherly love" references if the phils got both Uptons? Unbearable.

Reposted from an earlier thread today:

RE: Cody Ross, he isn't an upgrade on Nix/Schierholtz/Mayberry/Pierre in an outfield corner, and he can't handle CF on a regular basis anymore. I don't see the point given what we have already.

RE: Utley at 3B, he's giving the team additional options. They've indicated that Frandsen's not getting the starting job, which is the right call. If Frandsen doesn't continue to hit .330 - which he won't - his defense at 3B will cancel out any offensive contributions.

They'll look at free agents before settling for Galvis at 2B, but they shouldn't overpay anyone in this year's crop with Galvis, Cody Asche, and Cesar Hernandez all waiting in the wings.

Available options at each position:

3B:
Jeff Keppinger (probably will re-sign with Rays)
Maicer Izturis
Brandon Inge
Scott Rolen
Placido Polanco

2B:
Marco Scutaro (probably will re-sign with SF)
Freddy Sanchez
Kelly Johnson (may re-sign with Toronto)
Keppinger
Izturis
Yunel Escobar (not a FA, but likely to be traded by Toronto, especially if Johnson re-signs)

Stephen Drew would be at the top of either list if he's willing to switch from SS.

Other than Drew, I don't see anyone on that list that I'd offer more than 2 years at $4-5M per (if that). I'd much rather see them spend money in the outfield and the bullpen than waste it on the guys listed above.

Dave Cameron posted an article a few weeks ago on Angel Pagan, calling him the most underrated player in baseball. In doing so, he laid out the case that over the last four years, Pagan has actually been slightly better than Upton overall.

Considering he'll be cheaper, and he is actually a guy that can hit for average (the lineup could use one), I'd rather have Pagan, though I see the appeal of Upton.

"RE: Cody Ross, he isn't an upgrade on Nix/Schierholtz/Mayberry/Pierre in an outfield corner"

He's actually better than all four of those guys.

NEPP conveniently leaves out Upton's 2009 season stats in yet another of his "OK, I've reached a conclusion, now I'll cherry pick the stats to support it" posts.

***NEPP conveniently leaves out Upton's 2009 season stats in yet another of his "OK, I've reached a conclusion, now I'll cherry pick the stats to support it" posts.***

I sure did...when I listed his OPS+ for the last SIX seasons.

Also, since when did we use 4 year groupings to compare guys? Its almost as if you conveniently added his 09 season when trying to make your point and you're projecting that on me.

Upton is a 109 OPS+ hitter in the last 6 seasons overall averaging 18 HR and 36 SB.

Posted by: NEPP | Monday, September 24, 2012 at 02:43 PM

That INCLUDES 2009, clout. If you'd like, I could go over the Gregorian calendar with you a bit more...

Also, you're saying we should look at 2009 as the basis of his future performance instead of his overall numbers for 3 years, 6 years, etc?

How the hell does that make any sense? Sure, he was solid the last 3 years and the last 6 years overall but what about that off year he had 4 years ago???

Example: Cole Hamels is a mediocre starting pitcher because he had a 97 ERA+ in 2009. We should totally ignore his 134 ERA+ the last 3 seasons or his career 126 ERA+ when predicting how he'll do in 2013.

JW, a valiant attempt to change the topic and improve the discourse.

Alas, it's tough to get too excited about WBC qualifying, particularly on the Canada squad.

NEPP: "Upton is a 109 OPS+ hitter in the last 6 seasons overall averaging 18 HR and 36 SB."

Shane Victorino is a 105 OPS+ hitter in the last 6 seasons overall averaging 14 HR, 32 SB AND (NEPP won't tell you this) a .276 BA/.342 OB compared to Upton's .256/.339.

Yet Upton is a big upgrade at 2 or 3 times the cost?

Bonehead: "Package Dom, sell high on KK, and throw in a prospect like one of our young relievers to get Todd Frazier."

clout: "On his stupidest day of his life, Ruben Amaro will never be that stupid."

Thanks, clout, for setting me straight. Please, though, expand on your response. It is because Frazier is not a worthwhile acquisition? Or is it because I simply packaged too much value?

***(NEPP won't tell you this) a .276 BA/.342 OB compared to Upton's .256/.339.***

Yes, I'm so sorry I'm listing OPS+ instead of a full breakout. I agree on Vic and Upton too...I mean, as we all know, they are both going into their Age 32 season next year too so that's a good comp for future production.


You know, except for Upton being 28 next year, not 32.

Also, last I checked we are replacing Mayberry in CF, not Victorino. I'm not sure if you're aware but we traded Victorino back in July so he isn't around anymore.

clout- who do you want signed for CF?

Figuring the Phils sign a CF for at least a 3-yr deal, I imagine that make Gillies likely trading fodder for next year the deadline. Can't see him back placed in LF/RF.

Clearly he wants Victorino as he just mentioned what a great option he is...at 1/3 the cost of Upton too from his post.

Which makes me assume that clout is indeed Victorino's agent as he knows how much Victorino will sign for.

Iceman - Ross is having an outlier season in 2012. You'll be paying him for his 2012 level of performance, but you'll likely get the Cody Ross of 2009-11, which translates (back of the envelope calculation) to about .270/.325/.435 in Philly. By comparison, the Phils' LFs have hit .289/.340/.407 this year. That's pretty much a wash before considering the opportunity cost of paying Ross instead of another free agent.

If you're thinking of playing Ross in CF, don't. He can't play it anymore. The Red Sox have kept him in RF while playing guys like Scott Podsednik and the ghost of Marlon Byrd in CF.

Why can't Tyson play right? Guys adjust no biggie. Chris Johnson working out really well. Why didn't rube and Eddie get him.

All I can say is a Bourn contract will have me breaking out the old Amaro voodoo doll. I still think very few people realize that his career OPS is teetering precariously over .700 with a .338 OBP.

On a similar note, I just love how people say about Rollins that he's not a "traditional" leadoff hitter because of his low OBP. That's not about being traditional or untraditional, it's about being suitable or unsuitable. Of all the woes of "traditional" baseball thinking, the concept of having a leadoff hitter whose primary skill is getting on base is hardly the one you want to try and break the mold on. (I'm not sure how "traditional" that is anyway.) Cue "lineup order doesn't matter" chorus, but Rollins is hugely miscast as a leadoff batter right now and will continue to be so if he maintains his relatively high SLG/low OBP combo.

NEPP- it seems like he wants Vic, but I just wanted to make sure, and more importantly, I want to know why he thinks that's a good idea.

I love Vic, and I'd be fine with having him back if the team didn't have much money to spend. But that's not the case. And the team needs an impact bat. So, no.

I dont know about you but Vic's 67 OPS+ in LA has me really wanting him back...preferably on a long-term deal.

Bringing up the Amaro comment about Doc, that he's "in position" to make his next scheduled start. What does that even mean? I'll take a guess:

"He really shouldn't be pitching because his shoulder is cooked, but we're going to run him out there again because we don't think he can make the injury worse."

Or

"No. He won't start, and is in no health to do so, but we want to lie to everyone anyway because we think it gives us some kind of tactical advantage."

Fun with Rube press releases. Someone should make a Mad Libs type book of them for S & G's.

This B.J. Upton discussion actually represents a breakthrough moment in Beerleaguer history. It is the first time I've ever seen clout acknowledge that a guy's price tag matters. Now, granted, I have no idea where he's coming up with B.J. Upton's future price tag. In fact, it strikes me as rather inconsistent that this player whom he regards as so thoroughly mediocre is the same player who he believes will command a huge contract. But, putting aside the substance of the argument, it's nice to see him coming around to the view that salary is a relevant consideration.

NEPP: You'e being willfully ignorant.

Mayberry was never going to be the everyday CF. He's there only because of the Vic trade. If you want the team to be a contender you need to upgrade or match the team that was meant to contend this season, but was derailed by injuries. That team included Pence and Vic, who were only traded because the team was essentially out of the race.

If you can't match or improve on those two, you're going backwards. Upton would be a very, very expensive itty, bitty upgrade from Vic. As such, it's a bad move.

So who would you sign for CF clout? You still haven't named anyone outside of bringing back Victorino. Victorino made $9.5 million this year so this means you think Upton will get $19-28.5 million next year apparently.

BAP: I never said salary wasn't important. What I said was the way it's discussed here is simply ignorant speculation.

Your frequent posts along the lines of "well, if we didn't sign X for $Y, we'd be able to afford Z" are ignorant.

Iceman: "clout- who do you want signed for CF?"

A high OB, quality defense/speed guy, ideally RH or switch hitter.

ColTom: I don't want him in CF, so there's no need to get into that.

Let's assume you're right, and Ross is going to plummet back to that line (which isn't a given, by the way: any FA is a risk, and Ross, if you're counting on him as an everyday OF, is a risk). Here's Ross's career line against LHP:

.285/.355/.576/.931

And Mayberry's:

.292/.331/.564/.895

Just that alone is an upgrade. But those two back-to-back in the order against LHP would be incredibly formidable.

They are still short one RHB in the OF, unless you want them to exercise Pigginton's option. Either Nix or Schierholtz will be dealt or dropped. And I doubt Pierre will be back. All three of them are worse than Ross, on both a part time and full time basis.

Best case scenario is Ross tears it up and he's your full time LF, with Mayberry splitting time with Brown in RF. Worst case scenario is that Ross is a contingency plan for Brown, especially against RHP. Either way, he is an asset to the team in 2013.

clout- so Pagan then? We agree.

***A high OB, quality defense/speed guy, ideally RH or switch hitter. ***

So...someone who doesnt exist.

Okay then.

None of the possible options match that. Out of the guys available, there are 2 switch hitters (Pagan and Cabrera) and 1 RHB (Upton). Upton and Pagan are low OBP guys and Pagan's power is average at best. Cabrera has the juicing and clubhouse issues and his track record is very iffy.

Your perfect guy doesnt exist. Way to avoid naming an actual free agent.

Of course, if you enjoyed Pence's fielding blunders, you'll probably love Pagan in CF. Same type of boneheaded plays on a regular basis.

NEPP: You're right. Players can only be acquired through free agency. It's impossible to get one in a trade.

And none of them are great defenders to include Upton. All 3 are average on a good day.

***: You're right. Players can only be acquired through free agency. It's impossible to get one in a trade.***

When you have a great system like we do, trades are quite easy to make. You are right again. We could trade a couple of those blue chip prospects we dont have and acquire a CF that way.

Why would anyone think the Phillies will let Pierre go? They didn't trade him when the should have. Everyone talks glowingly of the man. It's almost a given now that he'll be seeing a lot of time in LF in '13 (given Charlie's inability to manage a platoon).

NEPP: Pagan's OB has been .340 or better in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Upton hasn't come close to .340 in the past 4 seasons.

Again, you fail to name even a possibility of a guy you would want. A vague general description is all you can muster.

I think we should look for a good RH bat with great power and defense for 3B...and maybe some relievers with great command and control and high SO numbers for the bullpen...preferably at least 1 LH and 1 RH guy.

***Pagan's OB has been .340 or better in 3 of the past 4 seasons. Upton hasn't come close to .340 in the past 4 seasons.***

Pagan is at .335 for the last 3 years and Upton is lower than that at .319. Neither is a high OBP guy. SO neither qualify in your fantasy perfect CF guy.

.335 OBP is right around the same OBP that Rollins had all those years when people whined about his low OBP.

NEPP: I didn't get the memo that said stats only count for the 3 most recent years. Sorry.

Its pretty typical when making a prediction for the next year of performance. You know this of course but it hurts your argument.

We could simply look at their 2009 numbers like you tried to do earlier with Upton.

Pagan was so awesome in 2011 that he got himself driven out of town last winter by the Mets.

We could go by career numbers in which his .334 OBP doesnt help you either. Going with "2 out of the last 3 years" to ignore 2011 is totally not cherry-picking stats to support your argument though.

Iceman - is the .040 increase in OPS against LHP (remember, only 1/3 of ABs are against LHP) worth paying what it'll take to land Ross for next season? The Boston Globe says that the Red Sox and Yankees will both try to sign Ross, and that he's looking for something in the 3 year, $20M range.

If the Phils pay Ross that, he'll be playing every day, so I'm comparing the status quo based on guys under contract (Nix/Mayberry platoon) vs. playing Ross every day.

The Ross argument is probably moot anyway because he wants to return to Boston and the Sox have plenty of money to burn.

We could go by ...

Or we could go by r00b's track record, which says he'll either (a) overpay in both dollars & years for a "name" player of rapidly declining production &/or health, or (b) go bargain basement & sign a lukewarm nobody or two who will proceed to underachieve even by their own largely pitiful career standards.

Pagan also has a decent platoon split. He loses 28 points of AVG, 33 points of OBP and 53 points of OPS against LHP.

Fortunately, the rest of our lineup crushes LHP so its not an issue.

I don't think the future looks too bleak, following up on the last thread. And what ColonelTom said about the Red Sox having money to burn is the reason why.

I think we're looking at a point in the not distant future when the Phillies will also have money to burn. Doc comes off the books after next season. Utley the one after that. And even Howard's contract is gone in four years.

As much criticism as Rube has taken for his contracts, at least he hasn't handed an aging star a ten year life sentence contract. At least, he hasn't yet.

Why don't you just agree on a beerleaguer standard for historical stat comparisons and avoid the once-a-week arguments about cherry-picking?

I really hope the next 3-4 months of FA talk aren't hijacked by WIP buffoons who have nothing intelligent to say, so they simply stick to bashing Amaro. That will basically turn this place into philly.com.

NEPP- Pagan has been a good to very good player pretty consistently over the last four seasons. He had one average year in 2011 where he was playing through injuries. I'm not sure why you are so sour on him, even if you think his year this year (a ~120 OPS+ in a cavernous park) is some kind of fluke.

It's not like there's one right answer to the CF problem. There are a couple good players out there to choose from. It's not one good player with the rest being garbage.

I'm not sour on Pagan, but I dont see that he's significantly better than Upton and I dont see that he'd be super cheap either.

I'm merely arguing that Pagan doesnt fit clout's mythical perfect CF candidate that he listed to avoid actually naming someone.

Ice - as a quintessential WIP buffoon, I resemble that remark.

Either that, or I've never called WIP and am attempting to inject some humor into this contentious thread.

RE: CF - you're right, Ice - it is good to have choices; which is more than I can say for 3B.

I would have been pretty down on Pagan if not assured his fielding and overall game have improved. He was always that guy with talent who misjudged a lot of balls in the field and ran the bases without much brainpower.

If he's licked those problems in SF, Rube should take a shot at him. But I'm not sure why the Giants would let him go. As I've been saying all along, I don't think they'll offer Pence arb. They should have some money for Pagan.

I'd be okay with either Pagan or Upton in CF. I'd shy away from signing Bourn or Hamilton and I'd definitely be leery of bringing Victorino back.

Cabrera might be an interesting guy to look at too but the PED issue is clearly a concern (yet look at Braun's followup year to PEDs...so who knows).

My main fear is that Rube will sign Bourn or Hamilton in the first week of FA and massively overpay for whichever one he signs...overpaying to an extent that we have to go bargain shopping for the rest of the wholes in the 25 man.

NEPP: No fear of signing Bourn the first week. Boras never moves that fast.

"Cabrera might be an interesting guy to look at too but the PED issue is clearly a concern."

The Phillies don't want their future accomplishments to be tainted, by bringing aboard a player who owes his success to cheating. Hence, the Phillies will only consider cheaters like J.C. Romero and Freddy Galvis, who cheated but sucked anyhow.

NEPP: Please explain why you think Upton would be a major upgrade over the what this team got from Vic.

***Please explain why you think Upton would be a major upgrade over the what this team got from Vic.***

Funny, I never claimed it would be, you claimed I did in some sort of odd strawman attack (which is completely out of character for you). I think he would be a solid CF who will give us good power and speed. I think he's a RH bat that hits LHP well, doesnt have a huge platoon split and he fits our lineup better than some of the other options.

You seem to think he's Ben Francisco or something for some reason.

I dont see any of the FA CFs as a huge upgrade over Vic in his prime.

NEPP: It's my suspicion that r00b has already decided to relegate everything but CF to the "bargain" option, although he'd probably take issue w/ that characterization.

Wouldn't the Phils be able to stack some clauses into a Hamilton contract to protect themselves?

Wouldn't the Phils be able to stack some clauses into a Hamilton contract to protect themselves?

That would be great! I suggest "You Are Not Permitted To Be Injured", & "You Will Become A Real CF". If these conditions are not met, the Phillies do not have to pay.

Aha, NEPP, "Vic in his prime." There is the rub. He's on the downward slope of his career. He had every opportunity when he was traded to the Dodgers to turn his season around and he didn't.

I hope and trust that everyone's on board with not having the Flyin' Hawaiian back. If he returns to CF, he will be yet another middling addition to a mediocre lineup, dooming the Phillies to yet another third place finish.

Signing Hamilton doesnt help us in CF...as he's not really a CF anymore. So you'd have to really break the bank and also get a CF while playing Hamilton in LF.

I've thought about the clause idea with Hamilton, as that would turn me much more in favor of signing him.

But I would think to get Hamilton to sign something like that, there would almost have to be a collusion effort from teams that are in the running. Because it only takes one team to say "Hey, we believe you're clean for good- and as a sign of good faith, all of this money is guaranteed!" And that would be the team Hamilton signs with. There will almost certainly be one team willing to take that risk.

clout: I'm confused about which version of Vic you're talking about here. On the one hand, you cite Vic's 105 OPS over the last 6 seasons (and you concede that Upton is even slightly better than that). On the other hand, you argue that the first half team, which included Vic, was not good enough to contend. But one of the very reasons why we weren't good enough to contend was because we didn't get the Vic with the 105 OPS. We got the Vic with a 94 OPS+.

Personally, I'd sign Shane Victorino in a millisecond if I believed we would be getting the guy we had from 2008 to 2011. I think that guy would be almost exactly what this lineup needs. Alas, since there's no guarantee we'd be getting that guy, and there is good reason to believe we'd be getting this year's guy, if not someone worse, I'd be happy to find the next best thing. If Upton is even better than the Vic from 2008 to 2011 (your assertion, not mine), that would be better still.

***Personally, I'd sign Shane Victorino in a millisecond if I believed we would be getting the guy we had from 2008 to 2011***

I think anyone would. Unfortunately, the odds of him being that going forward on say a 3 year deal (Age 32-34 seasons) are pretty slim...as you note.

The Hamilton free agency will be fascinating. I don't believe Rube will dip his toe in that water. I'm not sure there will be a big market for him though I suppose the Sox could make a run. The Dodgers could surprise even after spending a trillion dollars. I think the Dodgers will spend money in a manner that would make George Steinbrenner blush which could mean they'll go after Hamilton regardless of what their payroll is.

I actually wouldn't necessarily mind the idea of Cabrera on character grounds. I want to root for a team that wins. We all make mistakes. I've had to force myself to tolerate Michael Vick, so for me that bridge is already burnt.

And I don't even necessarily buy into the 'PEDs = massive spike in performance' meme, because it isn't always true. But you can't possibly tell me it sits well with you that Cabrera was a career mediocre fourth-OF type for years, all of a sudden becomes of a premiere OF out of nowhere, and then gets busted for PEDs. Hell, it didn't sit well with me BEFORE he got busted for roiding.

I'd have to see a Braun type of bounce-back 'Screw you, I'm good without the drugs' year before I'd risk a multi-year deal on Cabrera.

You pretty much summed up my concerns on Cabrera there.

"It's my suspicion that r00b has already decided to relegate everything but CF to the "bargain" option, although he'd probably take issue w/ that characterization."

And you base this, of course, on nothing.

I think that's why he phrased it as a "suspicion"...

I'd rather roll the dice on a post-PED Cabrera, on a shorter contract, than rolling the dice on a 5-year (or so) deal to Hamilton.

Not that Gillies, per se, is the answer, but I feel like we need someone to play a decent CF, not lose us games, and simply be a stop gap until a better option comes available. This year doesn't seem to feature the next big thing.

Normally suspicions have some sort of factual basis behind them. I'm not sure why anyone would suspect Rube is going to go dumpster diving at almost every area when the team has cash to burn.

There is ample reason to be skeptical of Cabrera's 2011-2012 numbers. And the bizarre circumstances surrounding his positive PED test -- i.e., the fake medical website -- only enhance his long-held reputation as a major head case. It's also coming out, only now, that he wasn't well-liked among his Giants teammates -- including, apparently, Buster Posey. That's one of the reasons they won't be taking him back, even though his suspension is going to end early in the post-season.

No way would I ever consider signing the guy to a multi-year deal, but a one-year deal would be relatively risk-free. After all the stuff that has happened with him, I don't see any team giving him a multi-year deal.

Please no more Bourne talk. I want to stay far far away from him. That guy is going to cost a ton for a lead off hitter that thinks he can hit homers. We got one already. Doc and chase are just as high as cf this offseason. Rube has work cut out. Please don't dump the farm. It's starting to grow and depth at all levels. Some more then others, but depth none the less.

So, let me see if I'm gauging the overall temperature on BL for some of these options correctly:

Bourn - too much $$$; in line for probable regression and will only get older/slower

Cabrera - risk of post-PED regression; no telling how much of 2012 performance is transferable

Hamilton - lightning rod off the field; risk of significant regression attributable to potential personal issues/injury; going to command a ton of $$$


I'll go on record now as stating that whomever RAJ signs to start in CF next year will be met with resounding negativity on Beerleaguer. Shocking, to say the least.

WP: Don't forget:

Upton: too many strikeouts; hits for low BA; too expensive for a complementary player.

Hunter: too old.

Swisher: A douche-bag; can't play CF.

Pagan: Can't field; little power; inconsistent; weak against LHP.

Vic: Washed up.

Ross: Wasn't very good in 2010-2011; will probably regress.

D. Young: Head case; inconsistent; doesn't draw walks.

Everyone else: sucks.

So we're agreed: the 2012 regular season hasn't yet ended, but r00b has already completely failed the 2012-2013 offseason yet to come.

Beerleaguer is nothing if not efficient.

BAP/GTown, both of your assertions and summation sound pretty much dead on. The next few months are going to be a blast!

At least we always have the Abreu trade postmortem to change things up if/when things get monotonous.

WP & BAP - Yes. Between the two of you, you've covered it.

I honestly have no idea who we should sign. Can we go into a time machine and bring back the 2008 or 2009 OF? They were pretty productive and not too expensive.

There really is quite a simple fix to the CF dilemma. We just need to figure out who the next Mike Trout is then draft him (or trade for him if he's already toiling in the minors). Problem solved AND he'd be cost controlled. Why isn't Amaro working on this?

b_a_p's 702P post sums it up nicely.

In other news, Sofia Vergara's butt.

There's no doubt 90% of BL will hate any CF acquired by Amaro because they loathe him personally, and will use the cliff notes that BAP supplied to rail against him. Rube could acquire Trout and most here would rip him for it.

But the reality is that most of the players listed are good players that would improve the team. Hamilton, Upton, Bourn and Pagan would all make the team better. I have this feeling that people are going to dig in on who they prefer over the next few months and some of these players will be trashed so much that the CW on BL will be that they all suck.

This isn't the 3B market. There are quite a few good choices. The worst thing Amaro could do is not sign one of them.

I was at the gym this afternoon, and they happened to flash Hunter Pence's Giants stat line on the tv screen: .227/.299/.373/.672 -- OPS+ - 91. A thought immediately occurred to me. Given his hefty anticipated price tag, his pathetic performance since the trade, and the Giants' open desire to bring back Angel Pagan & Marco Scutaro, it wouldn't be all that shocking if Pence is non-tendered & becomes a FA. Anyone interested in bringing him back if the chance arises? As one who was against the trade in the first place, and who thinks that Pence, in a normal year, would be a better fit for the Phillies than any FA except Swisher, I would vote yes. But I suspect that would be a minority view on Beerleaguer.

Trout: Still unproven. Remember Bob Hamelin?

b_a_p: I'd rather have Pence than Brown any day of the week.

RAJ could sign Trout to a 30 year, $1 B contract, and I wouldn't utter one negative word.

Watching clout get completely schooled like a child on every post he or she made in this thread ranks in my top 10 most amusing moments of the season. It makes Romney look boderline intelligent in comparison.

BAP - I'm surprised that's what it took to convince you Pence isn't going to be tendered. I've been telling everyone that since the day of the trade. And we all know I am reliable.

And no, I don't want him back. Good guy whose game got totally exposed this season. Poor outfield play. Can't use his speed on the bases. Poor approach at the plate, doesn't make adjustments.

I'd rather take a ride on the Domo train. And that train is getting pretty low on fuel.

aksmith: I figured you'd be the first out of the gate to say, "No way."

I think Pence will be tendered. For one thing, Brian Sabean would have egg all over his face if he weren't. For two, the Giants' OF consists of Pence, free agent to-be Angel Pagan, and absolutely nothing. And I mean, truly nothing. It's so bad that even a guy like Dom or Mayberry would be a massive upgrade for them. Unless they re-sign Pagan, and need the cash to make a run at Josh Hamilton, they almost have to keep Pence, and hope that he has a bounce-back -- which he very likely will.

Of course, there is this about Hamilton:

Texas Rangers ‏@Rangers
Hamilton launches his 43rd home run of the season! Welcome back, Hamilton. Distance: 441ft.

Pence? Please God no. His impact on the team was underwhelming in his time here, and I don't know how much more I can take of watching him at the plate or in the field.

Why on earth would ANYONE want him back for the money he's going to command? Actually, scratch that. I wouldn't take him back for free. I'd rather have literally anyone else. A Hairston, even. We're still celebrating the trade in the Iceman household. Saved a few years on my life being spared watching him flail at the plate for a 1 and 1/2 seasons.

BAP, NEPP: I probably didn't make myself clear since I know you two would never distort anything a poster wrote.

Nowhere did I say I want the Phils to re-sign Vic.

What I said was this: If we want the Phillies to contend in 2013 then they must fill the 3 holes - CF, RF and 3B - with players who are equal to or better than the players who left: Vic, Pence and Polanco.

Is that too complex for you two?

I don't like Upton because he is a tiny upgrade over what the Phils got from Vic and won't be worth the cost. That second part is speculation. Maybe he signs for $4M a year. If so, I'm dead wrong. But the reports I've read project him getting $70M for 5 years. I doubt even NEPP, who thinks Upton has Triple Crown potential, would like that deal.

I think BAP is right, though, that he's not going to be non-tendered. Sabean basically has no choie. His OF is very unsettled and he won't possibly be able to justify the trade of a good prospect by just ditching Pence after 50-60 games.

Basically, Amaro screwed up beyond comprehension on what he gave up for Pence, but he pawned off the problem of having to continue to pay him more than he is worth to Sabean. And Sabean won't be able to risk letting him go and having 2-3 question marks in his OF.

I think each of the following 4yr contracts would be good value over their life:

Hamilton @ 25MM/yr
Upton @ 13MM/yr
Bourne @ 12MM/yr
Pence @ 12MM/yr
Pagan @ 7MM/yr
Victorino @ 6MM/yr
Ross @ 5MM/yr
Trout @ 45MM/yr (lol)

The Phillies have one more year, maybe two, with this current core being able to contend.

That being the case, production, not age, ought to be the primary concern. If Tori Hunter has one or two more good seasons left and is willing to sign a 2 or 3 year contract, that could be way smarter than signing Upton for 5 years.

I guarantee within 2 years the whole team gets blown up and a rebuild is started.

Iceman: In weighing the Pence trade, you need o consider what they gave up, what Pence did for the team in 2010 after Dom Brown flopped and what they got from the Giants in exchange for Pence.

Obviously that should be 2011, not 2010.

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