Game chat: Surging Phillies set to pull record even

Roy Halladay (3.87) has the honors as the Phillies, winners of five straight, try to climb back to .500 for the first time since June 4.

Beerleaguer: Time to throw a little love Antonio Bastardo's way. Bastardo, who recorded his first save of the season Monday night, could easily be listed in the previous thread naming the top five Phillies of the second half. In fact, he should have been listed. Just like Kyle Kendrick, he's been terrific for weeks. He's held opponents scoreless in each of his last nine outings and he still rates among the game's best relievers in strikouts-per-nine (13.90). Certainly, he's a big reason why the Phillies' bullpen boasts the third lowest ERA in baseball (2.79) since July 20 and the lowest ERA (2.47) since Aug. 16.

And staying with the spirit of giving, what better time to give some love to Michael Martinez, who's back in the lineup at third base much to your delight. Say what you want, but Mini-Mart showcased his three saving graces Monday: speed, arm and very occasional pop.

Lineup: Rollins, Pierre, Utley, Howard, Ruiz, Brown, Mayberry, Martinez, Halladay. For Doc, it's his 400th career appearance. The Phillies are five out in the final Wild Card.

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Comments

[Wild Card]

Any room on the bandwagon?

[bay_area_phan]

Scary fact: there is a team in this WC race who is playing even better than we are. On August 15, Milwaukee was 12 games under .500. They now have exactly the same record as we do.

[Sophist]

Iceman, yep.

[aksmith]

Padres escaped trouble in the eighth. Nice job. And they have a "beach" just beyond centerfield, which is actually adjacent to a grassy area just outside the stadium. That is one great stadium to watch a game. And that area is out there beyond the outfield because the city required the team to build them a park that could be used during the day as part of the design.

San Diego is one of the best places on earth to watch a baseball game. They've had a bad team for a while now, but the downtown area is nice and there are a lot of bars and restaurants for after the game.

As nice as the Zen is, I think San Diego is a nicer baseball experience. As long as the Phillies are playing there.

[DH Phils]

Big, big, insurance run there for San Diego.

If the Phillies make the playoffs, we all need to pitch in and send the Padres a few gift baskets.

[STS]

Per gameday looks like the Padres just escaped another scare from the Cardinals.

And followed it up with an insurance run!

[aksmith]

And about Manuel - I think he's now adapting to what he has on the team. He's having to go with pitching match ups that would have never occurred to him for the last five years because the team was much better.

Although, it's tough to watch Doc struggle like this. Maybe he needs to start following KK around and learn his routine and training methods? Or better yet, since their velocity is so similar now, maybe he needs to learn Kyle's repertoire?

[DH Phils]

Since the beginning of August, San Diego has gone 5-1 vs. PIT, 5-1 vs. ARI, 2-1 vs. LA, and 1-0 so far vs. STL. The Padres deserve a big chunk of the credit for the parting of the sea of wild card contenders that has led us to this point.

[EDGE]

It probably helped that they didn't trade Headley. If we thought their asking price was high back before his hot streak, the Padres are going to ask for a king's ransom this off season.

[BloodStripes]

C'mon Padres. 4 games baby.

The Angels 9th inning comeback is looking pretty good too. Forget the rally monkey. It's the walk-off baby.

[Verdeforce]

How do you not love this team - they are now only 3 San Diego outs from being only 4 games back with 20 still to play! How wrong were so many people on this site who said our five-time division champion Phillies were fundamentally unsound and not just suffering from missing their 3 best players for the first two-thirds of the season as was apparently really the case! Go Phils, don't stop now!

[Dragon]

"If they manage to pull this miracle off, Manuel deserves to be manager of the year, and it isn't even a question. Even if they don't pull it off, he deserves a lot more credit than most here would ever care to give him." - Iceman

Great post, Iceman. Agree 100%.

[aksmith]

Thank you, Padres. Nice.

[DH Phils]

4 GB. Unbelievable.

Since early July, SD is now 19-4 against STL/LA/PIT/ARI.

[Iceman]

Holy crap. Are they really going to cut this to 4 games with 20 to go, with the Dodgers losing also? Doesn't that cut the margin with the Dodgers to 3?

This is really happening. When this 10-game stretch started I said the goal should be to cut the deficit to 3 or 4 games by the time it ends- not the middle of it! The Cardinals still have that huge 4-game Dodgers series to play!

It's realistic now to have this cut to 2 games with 15 to play. And I'm even penciling in a loss for tomorrow (which isn't a given, either- just bracing myself for a Johnson gem). That is not that difficult a hurdle to climb.

Now watch them go out and lose 3 of 4 to Houston or something with Clemens getting a win in one of the games.

Yup. The lead is cut to 4.

[Wild Card]

Good thing the Phils dumped those OF chumps and Kentucky Fried Joe. It's time to WIN!!!

[Verdeforce]

Woo hoo! Rooting for 2 sweeps tomorrow - in Philly and SD! BTW, Dick Enberg is one of the best baseball announcers.

[aksmith]

Time for Cliffie to step up and pull a Kendrick. What were the odds anyone would ever say that?

[BloodStripes]

Fully sick

[limoguy]

4.0 behind Dodgers and 1.5 behind Pirates. So now what's the probability of them making the playoffs? Last week it was only about 1%. Where do you go to find that out?

[limoguy]

Sorry, 3.0 behind Dodgers and 4.0 behind Cards.

[aksmith]

I have to admit that I saw no chance of the Phillies making the playoffs not that long ago. Now the chance is right there in front of them. They need to go on a historic winning streak and the teams ahead of them need to do the opposite. But it's more of a chance than any of us had any right to expect.

And they're doing this with Doc clearly not performing. And Tyler Cloyd in the majors taking a regular turn.

Frandsen
Kratz
Aumont
DeFratus
Diekman
Larud
Brown

All have had a hand in turning the team around. And before the season started only Brown and DeFratus were seen as likely to be callups.

Nice to see.

[awh]

Just got back from the road.

Great to see the team playing this well. Also good to see them closing the gap.

Still.................. mini-mart.

[Unikruk]

The best real-world effect of this race is the added pressure the Cardinals must now be feeling. I'd say losing Berkman for the year hurts them even more but he hasn't been playing much because of his knee. At least there'll be no heroics from him.

The standings don't seem to fully account for that pressure, and we've seen some significant comeback drama in recent years (Phils vs. the Mets in '07 and '08, and the Cards and Rays taking it from the Braves and Red Sox last year).

[EastFallowfield]

Shoulda known the Pads were a lock as soon as BAP scolded me for daring to think they could come back from a 2 run deficit.

[Brooklyn Phillies]

awh: coolstandings.com has the playoff odds at 3% now.

But it has expected wins at only 81.2.

Phillies have won 71 games with 20 to play. And they've been playing way better than .500 ball since the trade deadline (when they became the New Phillies).

Let's see 45-57 at the trade deadline so that's .650 since then.

Of course, they are .800 in the last ten games.
and 1.000 in the last 6 games.

So it's easy to imagine that coolstandings doesn't know what it's talking about. It thinks the June Phillies have a 3% chance of making the playoffs.

[Chuck A.]

Comment made earlier by someone:

"...they are now only 3 San Diego outs from being only 4 games back with 20 still to play!"

Not to stick a pin in this big party balloon that we now seem to have, but really that should read "4 games back with ONLY 20 to play."

Time is running out, there are still 3 teams to leapfrog over, and another one ...a HOT one...is right there with us.

One. Game. At. A. Time.

[squads]

Sure am glad the Brewers scuttled Greinke at the deadline..

[Jack]

I haven't been on here much during this late surge, so I hope this has been extensively covered.

But most people realize that the biggest issue isn't the games behind the Cardinals, but instead the amount of teams between the Phils and Cards (Pirates, Dodgers, Brewers), right?

[Jack]

Also, I wonder where all the people are who said the Phillies were absolutely screwed if they relied on young guys like Bastardo, Aumont, et all. Because this young, homegrown bullpen has suddenly gone from absolutely horrible to absolutely great.

Do people finally understand that bullpen performance is so random as to be essentially unpredictable for all but the very best and very worst relievers?

[pblunts]

Sqauds, great point about Greinke, I had somehow forgotten about that. It is amazing, the Phils and Brewers have rid a combined, what, $30M-plus in salary, while the Dodgers added a ton.

But the Dodgers have to take at least 3 of 4 from the Cards this weekend, because the Cards schedule is a joke after this weekend, not to mention playing ( I believe) the Reds and Nats the last week of the season, two teams that will have things wrapped up and will likely check out. Or they could do what we did vs the Braves last year...sigh.

[Sophist]

No, Jack, you're the only one who knows those things.

[3r0ck]

No, Jack, you're the only one who knows those things.

Posted by: Sophist | Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 08:24 AM

Some just need to keep their piss out of our cheerios. Let us enjoy the game and the great success the Phillies' have experienced of late.

[johnnysanz3]

Jack: I think everybody gets it that has looked at the standings at any moment in the last week.

[donc]

You guys don't appreciate Jack educating us? Where would we be without his towering intellect?

[johnnysanz3]

What's the tiebreaker rule again? Could the MLB see two one game playoffs in a row?(tied record, then wild card battle) That would be neat.

[GTown_Dave]

Had a fine time at the game last night, which bears mentioning because that has usually not been the case this season. A few thoughts:

- Love to see the Phillies doing all of the little heads-up/hustle type things they markedly failed to do in the first half, namely being intelligently aggressive on the base paths & taking advantage of their opponent's miscues.

- Dom is hitting the ball hard. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

- You all knew this already, but Chooch is a friggin' baller. Love watching that guy play.

- Great crowd. Even though large swathes of the upper deck were empty, everyone was as loud & engaged as I've heard them all year.

- Halladay once again looked decidedly mortal. I really don't know what to think other than a firm belief that possibly trading Lee in the offseason & relying on Halladay/Hamels in '13 would be a huge mistake.

- Charlie baffles me. No one so much as left their seat in the bullpen until Aumont had worked himself into a 3-1 count w/ only 1 Out & runners on 2B & 3B in the 8th inning ... at which point Bastardo fairly leapt to his feet & began throwing like mad. Had Frenchie been unable to work his way out of trouble, the Phils would have been screwed. Someone else needs to be in charge of that sh*t.

- Relief pitching may well be unpredictable, but there is a notable difference between pitchers who are better more often than not, & those who are not more often than better. The Phillies have a bullpen chock full of the latter.

- Speaking of which, losing Valdes at this late stage really hurts.

- I'll start drinking the Postseason Kool-Aid when/if the Phillies can manage to beat a crap team like the Marlins w/out making it look so damn difficult.

[johnnysanz3]

Or how about 3 one game playoffs! "The three teams will be designated as "A", "B" and "C". A two-game elimination format will ensue. In Game 1, A will host B. The following day, in Game 2, the winner of Game 1 will host C. The winner of Game 2 advances to the postseason."

[johnnysanz3]

Yeah, we are sweating losing Valdes for sure...lol

Also, only wins that count are blowouts apparently.

[johnnysanz3]

Or how about a 4-way tie for 2nd wild card! lol: "The four teams draw lots, as teams A, B, C, and D. On the first day team B plays at team A and team D plays at team C. The next day the winners of these games play each other at the ballpark of either team A or B (depending on who won the game)."

followed by wild card 1 game playoff!

[GTown_Dave]

Why not just skip the regular season altogether, declare all 32 teams Postseason eligible & have an NCAA-basketball-like tourney, only w/ 5 game series rather than individual elimination games! Woooooo! Expanded playoffs rule!

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Jack: If you look at the thread, we've discussed all the teams between us and St. Louis. I think we all recognize the hurdles.

[Bob]

Loving watching these guys put a little run together. It's great to have seen them playing hard at earlier points when they easily might have written the season off and mailed it in. Any possibility of Lee still going on one of those runs where he's virtually unhittable?

aksmith, yes, Petco in San Diego is a great place to watch a game. From that public park just outside the outfield, if you're lucky with timing you can hang out and watch the players work out during the day prior to a night game. Had a tour of the park and saw a game from the Great Western box in left, walking over the ramp to the park from our hotel across the street. What an incredibly nice way to attend a game! And the weather is incomparable.

[Joe D]

Aumont's final 2 outs of the 8th were so sick. Is there video of those 2 pitches somewhere?

[denny b.]

My guess for Cholly's lineup today:

Rollins, SS
Pierre, LF
Utley, 2B
Howard, 1B
Nix, RF
Kratz, C
Schierholtz, CF
Orr, 3B
Lee, P

I think Mayberry could use a day off. Bat looked a bit sluggish last night. He'll probably be in at some point anyway, once the Marlins go to a LH pitcher. Maybe give Brown a day off too and get Nix into the lineup again.

[Brooklyn Phillies]

GTown,

They also swept the Bats....

[Brooklyn Phillies]

GAH. Nats.

[Joe D]

Denny how can you take out that hot handed Michael Martinez?! Speaking of MM, can the pitcher serve as a cutoff man for him on throws to first?

I had to get that MM dig in there to level this place out.

[GTown_Dave]

Brooklyn Phils: I tend to be more worried when the Phillies play crappy teams than when they play good ones. There often appears to be a certain "playing down to the level" involved.

Joe D: Watching the relay from Pierre to Martinez to nowhere was one of the saddest things I have ever seen on a baseball field.

[Joe D]

GTown, that short sac fly to Pierre was hysterical. I just started to do some other things once I saw it hit out there. Doc was probably so pissed.

On the topic of outfield play, why does it look like Brown is on skates all the time when cutting balls off?

[can_of_corn]

I'm not betting on Orr. Since his callup, Orr has been out of the lineup consistently in favor of MiniMart--and that was when MiniMart was left for dead by everyone but Cholly.

Now that MM is inexplicably on a hot streak (for him anyway) there is no way Cholly will have him sit today.

[Iceman]

Yeah, they have really played down to their competition the last five games. Good to have you back, G-Town.

[Brooklyn Phillies]

I hear ya, GTown. I don't mind them playing down as long as they keep winning.

Jack:
But most people realize that the biggest issue isn't the games behind the Cardinals, but instead the amount of teams between the Phils and Cards (Pirates, Dodgers, Brewers), right?

I think most people are rooting for all the teams ahead or nearby to keep losing.

Of course the Dodgers/STL 4-game series is a problem. I guess a split would be the best case. Both teams seem to be similarly not winning much lately, but my gut says LA has a better shot at a playoff spot.

(Also, of course, who I root for has no effect on anything anyway.)

[Joe D]

In the LAD-STL series I am hoping for an LAD sweep because the Dodgers schedule even outside of STL is by far the toughest. Have them take care of the Cards and then fall on their own face.

[lorecore]

joed: agreed about stl/lad series.

I was pretty worried about Aumont because that ump had a very narrow plate last night(most of the time) and I knew Aumont's pitches rarely stay straight enough to stay within the plate for long.

But then he unleashes a split change that was just as filth as the rest of his stuff out of nowhere and sends the hitters into no mans land and swinging right through it.

Unreal...and I haven't seen Reyes that mad ever, even when his team was losing their playoff spot.

[3r0ck]

Nice to see Cards fans acknowledging the Phillies are right on their tails ...

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2012/9/11/3317378/cardinals-at-padres-open-thread-adam-wainwright-at-edinson-volquez#comments

[Sophist]

Aumont's split is crazy. Phuturephillies had a cool gif in his top 30 prospects with the fastball and split side by side. Scroll down to no. 8.

http://phuturephillies.com/2012/02/10/my-top-30-prospects-for-2012/

[lorecore]

awesome posts by Jack.

"I haven't been here awhile, but just want to let everyone know that everything I ever said is still more right than anything else that has been said in my absence."

[Fatalotti]

I know the Pirates are ahead of us, but they are the last team I'm worried about right now. They will finish the season below .500 once again.

[Hugh Mulcahy]

Yeah, that Jack post is a classic. I've Never would occur to me to piss in someone's wheaties like that. Everybody loves the 'smartest guy in the room'.

Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the bandwagon emptied long ago . . .

[Sophist]

lorecore - add to that the fact that what he's pointing out is far from profound.

[lorecore]

Big game at a very odd 4pm start time today. Cliff Lee tries to jump ahead of Henrik Lundqvist in wins at CBP in 2012.

[Sophist]

Pirates also have a majority of their games on the road (including a series against the Reds), and have home series against the Brewers, Reds and Braves.

[gobaystars!]

I'll say this: I hate the one game playoff and the wildcard and all of that. It cheapens the regular season. I also hate the fact that our team has been having an awful season. Hated the injuries and how poorly things went. Even if the Phillies win it this year, I'll still want baseball to do away with it entirely. Even today, if Bud Selig put it to a vote, I'd vote to get rid of it for this season.
But since that one game playoff exists and things have shaken out they way they have, I will gladly root for the Phillies to take this wildcard thing for all it's worth. I'm all on on it.

[donc]

Jack's posts were possibly the creepiest example of arrogance I've ever seen here. And this place is a bastion of creepy arrogance.

[clout]

Iceman: Good post about Charlie, fans and bandwagon jumpers.

It's a long season. Can't say it enough. The emotional, short attention span crowd gave up on this team ages ago. When your attention span ranges between 20 seconds (GTown Dave) and 2 weeks (MG) it is very hard to get your head around all that can happen over 162 games and very easy to make bold -- and wrong -- conclusions based on small sample sizes.

I remember when Jack, who should know better, kept pestering posters about whether they thought the team still had a chance to make the playoffs. Virtually everyone said no, but the few who did were ridiculed by Jack, MG, BAP and all the other posters.

[Fatalotti]

That's right clout, you stick out that chest and boast in your fan superiority.

You deserve it.

[Sophist]

The wildcard standings with the team's W/L streak

Braves - L2
Cards - L2
Dodgers - L2
Pirates - L5
Brewers - W2
Phillies - W6

Right.

[bay_area_phan]

"Shoulda known the Pads were a lock as soon as BAP scolded me for daring to think they could come back from a 2 run deficit."

Now, now . . . there was no scolding involved. I merely mentioned that Adam Wainwright is a pretty good pitcher.

[lorecore]

gobay: completely disagree. The 2nd wildcard and following 1 game playoff strengthens the regular season, not cheapens it.

Making the playoffs by winning the division has become decidedly more important, because you now avoid such a 1 game playoff. And the team with the best record in the league gets to play a wild card team who just had to use a pitcher in their 1 game playoff while the best team gets an extra day to set up their staff as desired.

[clout]

Fatalotti: That's not what I said at all. Are you incapable of reading something and understanding it?

I was simply complementing Iceman on a very good analysis. If you're feeling inferior, well, your posts speak for themselves.

[clout]

BAP: Your declarations here are wrong 85% to 90% of the time, but I assume you do that on purpose as part of your schtick.

[gobaystars!]

After this many division titles and this many comebacks, anyone who gives up on Jimmy, Chase, Ryan and Charlie in July is a out of their minds. I can't guarantee that this wildcard thing will work out but why would anyone throw in the towel so early on this team?

[Fatalotti]

Clout, I just want you to know that it's OK to tout your superiority to other posters with short attention spans. You are better than us. I can't stress that enough.

[bay_area_phan]

"Making the playoffs by winning the division has become decidedly more important, because you now avoid such a 1 game playoff."

That's the argument, and I suppose I understand it. But you have to admit, adding two more teams to a playoff format that is already set up to produce random results is a very strange and ironic way to go about making the regular season more important. Still, on this day, far be it for me to protest the creation of a 2nd WC spot.

[Fatalotti]

After this many division titles and this many comebacks, anyone who gives up on Jimmy, Chase, Ryan and Charlie in July is a out of their minds. I can't guarantee that this wildcard thing will work out but why would anyone throw in the towel so early on this team?

Posted by: gobaystars! | Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 10:41 AM

If you want to revel in this awesome run they've made (coupled with some pretty crappy play by teams that were far ahead of us), that's fine.

But remember, this team was 14 games below .500 at one point, prompting not just the fans to lose hope, but the f*cking General Manager of the team, as he traded off his CF and RF, shopped his SS and placed his $25 M pitcher on waivers.

Unless you think that RAJ planned on throwing away 2 former All Star OFs and turning the keys over to JMJ, Brown and a mix of Nix, Wigginton, Pierre and Schierholts as part of his "comeback strategy", apparently he was out his mind, too.

[Sophist]

Well, they were 13 games out and behind 8 teams on July 30th (for the 2nd WC), and had been outscored by almost 40 runs to that point. No reason to ever 'give up' and it's fun to watch games anyway. But optimism wasn't exactly called for.

[lorecore]

fatal: good point. All of the "believers" would have never traded Pence/Vic/Blanton, and then we'd be still be screwed.

[GBrettFan]

Do you really mean to use the word "emotional", clout? Or do you mean to have a modifier with it, such as "overly emotional"? Because whenever you criticize posters for being emotional, it makes me think that you think we are immature to actually get excited or to care what happens. Whereas I thought that was the very definition of fan.

I do understand your point about it being a long season and patience and all, but I don't understand why you think it's odd to jump for joy or curse in frustration. I mean, it's odd to people who aren't sports fans, but presumably you are one since you post here. Unless you're writing a dissertation on the curious nature of a fan with the Phillies fans on BL as your primary case study.

Also, I think anyone who follows a baseball team through the course of 162 games has an adequate attention span.

I did write the team off for dead, but I kept hoping that I was wrong somehow. It was just a single little ray of hope surrounded by my rational thoughts that the team just didn't have what it took this year and that there was too deep a hole to climb out of. Now I'm excited for the possibility again, but I'm tempering that by reminding myself we need other teams to fail no matter how well we play, and that we have to lose a few more games at some point.

So I'm impatient, short-sighted, dramatic & overly emotional. Does it really matter to anyone else?

[bay_area_phan]

"I was simply complementing Iceman on a very good analysis."

True. And compliments are meaningless unless one also throws in insults directed at 4 other people, so as to highlight the praiseworthiness of the person receiving the compliment.

[Fatalotti]

I think it's awesome that some fans never gave up hope. That's cool as hell. I wish I were less cynical some time, and could have maintained that hope, too. In fact, right now, I'm still extremely doubtful that they'll make the playoffs.

But now that they're in the mix, it gets tiring every other post reading from someone that they never stopped believing and how they simply CAN'T believe that you DID!!

[gobaystars!]

lorecore, I completely follow your logic and appreciate that the second WC does add to the importance of winning a division. I'm probably just against the WC in the first place and would prefer two divisions per league. I'm currently a bit uneasy about a .500ish team winning the World Series. I know this is fairly well trodden ground so I'll see how this year's playoffs work out and come to a more informed opinion as time goes on.

[lorecore]

bap: true, it adds another horse into the race, but the results just strengthens the thoroughbreds even more.

Both are good things, so i think getting both from 1 format is ideal.

[Fatalotti]

I should just stop trying. GBrett and BAP made my points about 1000 times better than I ever could.

[gobaystars!]

fat, I didn't say anything about Ruben, who by the way is out of his mind. Charlie and the core guys didn't go anywhere. They've made this comeback. This has nothing to do with Ruben's strategery.
And I will revel in the Phillies playing well. It is, after all, why I watch them and root for them to play well. It's basically the point.

[DH Phils]

Cliff Lee tries to jump ahead of Henrik Lundqvist in wins at CBP in 2012.

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, September 12, 2012 at 10:21 AM

That is a hilarious (but sad) way to put it.

[BobbyD]

People can get on and off the bandwagon as they choose. But it is, in fact, amazing, that certain fans declare a season over in June, year after year, despite a mountain of examples of teams coming back in the second half, even as late as September.

[gobaystars!]

Also, I'm fine with dumping Shane and Pence. They weren't part of the future plan. The Phillies planned for tomorrow with going nuts and selling off the entire team, ballpark and all as was what many expected.
But, Fat, honeslty, you're a good fan and I'm not attempting to insult anyone or imply there is such a thing as bad fandom or whatever. All I'm saying is, people can't give up on Charlie and the gang that's been through it so many times.
All that said, odds are still stacked against the Phills but we gotta go for it.

[R.Billingsly]

I completely wrote this team off. In fact, I posted a BL classic "SEASON=OVER" after the most recent home Mets' series.

It's still a long shot to get that second WC, but because I "wrote them off," does it make me any less of a fan? Of course not. I still watch them. I still root for them. There are always things to get excited about.

I don't really understand what we're arguing about. Especially since this team is playing meaningful, exciting baseball in the middle of September.

[R.Billingsly]

lorecore: Your 10:21 is hilarious. Nice work.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

It's nice to see Beerleaguer coalesce around a singular concept. That being the characterization of Jack's strange posts.

[lorecore]

Sophist: thanks for that phuture phillies link with the .gif of Aumont.

I miss phuturephillies a lot, that type of write up has been absent ever since the one guy left. I still like the site and all, but that write up he did is just ridiculously insightful. I remember when he made those huge excel sheets trying to create brand new stats/projection system, it was a mile over my head, but still appreciated.

[GBrettFan]

Just saw this by Bill Baer at Crashburn Alley on optimism v. pessimism in the fan.

http://crashburnalley.com/2012/09/11/on-optimism-and-pessimism/

[bay_area_phan]

On the second WC:

I hate the 2nd WC. But if (hypothetically speaking) the Phillies were to sneak into the playoffs via the 2nd WC, then continue their hot play into the playoffs and to a World Series title, I would not feel that the victory is even the slightest bit cheapened. The reason: the Phillies were the best team in baseball in 2010 & 2011, but were denied a spot in the World Series both times because of the crapshoot format of the playoffs. And one of those times came at the hands of a WC who owed their entire playoff existence to the Phillies, for sweeping Atlanta in the last weekend of the regular season. So if we do chase down that very same team, win the 2nd WC, and go on to greater post-season success, we'll have nothing to apologize for. It would merely be a repayment of the debt incurred to us by MLB during the past 2 post-seasons.

[GBrettFan]

We were 14 games under .500 on July 13. I do have a friend who reminds me every time I see her that she never stopped believing, but come on - It was hardly realistic to expect the team to make the playoffs.

Furthermore, one of the huge stumbling blocks was the BP. I thought it was reasonable to expect get better SP in the 2nd half and to expect the offense to hold its own, but our BP was so bad I didn't see how we could overcome it. Turns out, we got new guys in the mix there and they've begun to find their way to saving some games.

I didn't expect KK to be this good, either.

And as we all know, we would be out of contention any other year to this point, without the 2nd WC.

[clout]

Bobby D: "People can get on and off the bandwagon as they choose. But it is, in fact, amazing, that certain fans declare a season over in June, year after year, despite a mountain of examples of teams coming back in the second half, even as late as September."

And Bobby D made my point better than I did.

[clout]

GBrettfan: "It was hardly realistic to expect the team to make the playoffs."

Exactly right. But not impossible. That's why those who ridiculed posters who refused to give up deserve a spanking now.

[awh]

new thread~!