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Tuesday, September 04, 2012

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Rollins will have as many lifetime hits as Latos does tattoos.

Which will come first... 2000 hits or 2000 pop-ups?

from the last thread:

thanks for the ryno stats, HammRadio. i agree with your expectations for him next year. but he needs to get lighter. and not just 15 lbs lighter. he is putting too much stress on his ankles and feet. we'll see if he has the discipline to eat less in the off-season.

Schierholtz EARNS the start? I hardly think he's earned the start. But he's getting it anyway.

Discipline? Howard had BEEN getting lighter each of the past several years, pre-injury.

interesting, JB. my apologies to mr. howard. keep it up. what did he weigh in AA? i'd love to see a graph over his career. my bet is it's pretty horizontal.

Considering the densities of fat and muscle, BMI would be a much better indicator than total weight.

I will say that Howard definitely looked more svelte in the 2010/2011 seasons than he does this one, but I imagine aerobic exercise was hard to come by in the off-season, what with the bum ankle and all.

dennyb, I'm just going to stop discussing Mayberry with you, because you're giving completely subjective analysis that is not backed up by facts. He's your boy, so you're going to defend him to the death, and say ridiculous things while doing so.

He does not 'do several things at least above average' (exact quote). AT LEAST? What are you on?

We simply disagree on what he brings to the table defensively. He's passable at each OF position. I've seen good and bad from him on defense, and I've seen good and bad from his throwing arm. He's certainly better than some alternatives, but let's not pretend he's some defensive stalwart out there. It just isn't the case.

He mashes LHP. That is a fact. He can't hit RHP. That is also a fact. He can't steal bases. I am curious what these several things are that he does that are 'at least above average.' Those are some serious rose-colored glasses. He's lucky to be on a team with a lot of lousy OF options.

And another thing on your swipe at Howard in the last thread. Apparently the stat you coined a few years ago (DBE- dennyb's eyes) basically means you see what you want to see based on the players you like and dislike.

"And Howard doesn't do "that one thing" he used to extremely well, all that well anymore. Mainly because he can't put the ball in play anymore."

Ridiculous. The guy is coming off a major injury and is driving in runs at almost his usual rate. You're writing him off as a prolific run producer one month into what will be a 6 month (at least) on-the-job rehab assignment. It's laughable.

According to you, Howard 'isn't all that good anymore,' and Mayberry 'does several things at least above average.' That quality of analysis speaks for itself.

He was nearly 280 in 2008. He lost a good deal of weight during that offseason - the media made a big deal about it in 2009 - and prior to injury, had been playing around 240 since then.

thanks for the numbers, JB. now he needs to pull his socks up. it would make him look even lighter.

He hit 58 hrs when he was heavier.

You know... two different people can have two different definitions of what an "all-around player" is.

From one person, it's someone who has multiple skills. For another, it's someone who shows some proficiency in each skill.

Maybe not worth three threads of argument. Just sayin'.

The Phils are hanging around the Wild Card discussion, but need a number of teams, like the Cardinals and Braves, to go ice cold.[...]

Posted by J. Weitzel at 05:30 PM | Permalink


It isn't a matter of other teams finishing going ice cold.

Phils need to finish scortching they-might-as-well-be-walking-on-the-sun hot: 24-3

22-5 puts them at 87 wins and likely on the outside looking in.

KAS- some might call Mini-Mart an 'all-around player,' then.

I'll leave it alone. Just think it's a ridiculous claim.

Giants Designate Hacker For Assignment

At first I thought they were talking about Hunter Pence.

Can't stop watching this Aumont gif spotted on Reddit

Juuuuuuust a little outside.

235 hits until he ties Michael Jack for most in franchise history.

Right now he's 4th behind Schmidt, Richie and Delahanty

I'm a few threads behind. Has it been mentioned yet how beyond stupid it is to start Howard in tonight's game? He's a career 0-8 w/ 8 Ks vs. Latos.

GTown_Dave: Charlie's logic is that Howard is due for one. Over/under for Howard Ks tonight at 3.5.

"I am curious what these several things are that he does that are 'at least above average."


He's an above average outfielder. He has an above average throwing arm. He has above average power. He has above average running speed.

Is that enough? You need anymore?

He's a good all-around baseball player. Why? Because he does several things well. Maybe nothing great. But he is very useful. And if you've been watching for the past month, you'd know the team has been winning with him playing everyday and him playing very well everyday.

He is a good enough defender, that his manager has used him to play defense in late inning situations for 2 years. He could steal bases (he stole 9 last year) and really have no clue why he hasn't attempted any this year. And he has a very accurate throwing arm. Maybe not the hose that Brown has. But strong enough. Better then most major league outfielders.

He's not "my boy". But he's also not some AAA player, like some fools around here think. And he's a much better player then you obviously think he is. And he's going to be here next year.

"According to you, Howard 'isn't all that good anymore."


No, he's not as good as he was 5 years ago. Injury or not, he was already starting to fade last year.

His defense has gotten much worse. And he has never been a very good fielder to begin with. He can't throw. And he can't move. At all.

He can still knock in runs and hit the long ball. But he's really a one-dimensional player at this point. He better be damn good at that one dimension (which is a very important dimension, mind you) to make up for all the deficiencies in his overall game.

We'll see if he can make some improvement in 2013. He needs to.

Everyone else's logic would be that 8 is too small a sample to be even qualify as "small".

While I agree that 8 ABs isn't a statistically significant sample size, the fact that it was the same result every time can make jumping to conclusions on the subject understandable... If still not statistically sound.

Since Mayberry has been one of the topics of conversation today:

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
Thing I noticed today: John Mayberry Jr. has a .725 OPS. The major-league average OPS is .725.


I have no idea why he hasn't been stealing bases this year.

It isn't a matter of other teams finishing going ice cold.

It's a matter of both, just as JW said. Assume Atlanta takes the top WC spot. Cards go 12-15; Dodgers go 12-14; Pittsburgh 15-13. All those teams would then have 85 wins. Phils would need to go 21-6 to get to 86.

I honestly wouldn't put it past the Phils to go 18-9, but 21 wins is likely not even good enough.

Why would Charlie not start Howard tonight? After all, according to Charlie, "he's my guy."

Mayberry is probably a fine 4/5th OF who's had a very disappointing season according to some. He'll end up having a season that looks more like was a realistic person should have expected from him. He just hasn't looked great doing it.

"He can still knock in runs and hit the long ball. But he's really a one-dimensional player at this point. He better be damn good at that one dimension (which is a very important dimension, mind you) to make up for all the deficiencies in his overall game."

He's been a one-dimensional player for his entire career. You could have written this same paragraph in 2009.

Give the guy two seconds to recover from a shredded Achilles.

Howard's been striking out at a 36% rate (career rate ~27%), so there are bound to be 1-2 K's.

Who is the alternative to Howard at 1B, Nix?

I'd take my chances on 8 PA being too small a sample size to start Laynce Nix instead.

Only the first inning, but the stands are empty. Reds still have the best record in baseball?

I haven't been too impressed by what I've seen by Latos against the Phils in the past, but that first inning was pretty impressive.

I don't mind the K's as long as he drives in runs...which he's doing. I mean, 10 HR and 36 RBI in 202 plate appearances....after tearing his Achillies and not fully recovering yet...isn't all that bad.

Didn't realize it but Mayberry is having a pretty good second half.

.290/.339/.490 w/8HR in 168 PA since July 1st.

Looking at those numbers would lead me to think Howard is Latose Intollerant.

Well, I think donc won that discussion pretty handily. What next?

Terrible call.

Utley works out at third base again (CSN Philly)

Take that SSS!!!

I swear, I should be getting paid for this sh*t.

Off the schneid!

Trust the gut(s)

off the schneid!

I missed Howard's AB. I trust he's now 0-9 with 9Ks?

I feel like opposing OFs have been making plays like that w/ about a 99% rate of success all damn year. No luck.

Nice catch by Bruce. The guy can play a little ball.

That barehand play is really tough to make.

So, they are serious about this Utley/3B thing, aren't they?

If this means Galvis is an everyday player next year, I'm going to vomit repeatedly.

I didn't think Utley had that kind of play in him anymore.

Iceman: Finally, a subject upon which we are in agreement.

Ice and GT, the question is: Will they be a better team with Utley at 2nd - Frandsen at 3rd, or Galvis 2nd - Utley at 3rd?

If Utley didn't have the arm to play 3B in his earlier days, then what makes them believe he's got it now? His lack of arm strength coupled with Howard's regression in his scooping ability (one of the few things defensively that he excelled at) means whoever is playing catcher better bust their hump down the 1B line, Little League style.

I love and respect the fact that Chase is trying to work with the team, and it's worth taking some grounders to try. But I just cannot see it with his arm, or lack thereof. Seems barely adequate for second base, and like something of a weakness that he has learned to work around. Anyone here see him making that deep throw from well behind the bag at third to nip the runner at first?

awh- I think both are bad options. But for a team in need of offense, I'd rather have Frandsen's mediocre bat than Galvis's p*ss-poor bat. And I love watching the kid play defense. But it isn't worth sacrificing the offense.

They would also be downgrading defense at 3B big time. I would consider it a miracle if Chase can even passably play the position.

Hopefully at 3rd he can remember how many outs there are

Kratz.

word.

I can't believe that Wilson Valdez was hitting in a DP situation and didn't hit into a DP. Did he only do that for us?

Also, how can Wilson Valdez be batting 2nd in this lineup?

BAP - For a team with as many wins as they do, the Reds have a deplorable OBP. Baker doesn't do them any favors with his decisions.

How about if Utely can play third using him there, signing someone like Kelly Johnson to play second and then using Frandsen and Galvis off the bench?

Sophist: True. The first 2 hitters in the Reds' order have 2012 OBPs of .285 and .227.

They didn't say it on the radio but it sure looked like Utley was jogging off as if it was the 3rd out. Glad it was a moot point

Wasn't Cincy's OPB out of the lead-off spot (in the chart JW posted the other day) the lowest in the MLB? Between Stubbs and whoever else they use, that is just pathetic.

Also shows you how good the middle of their lineup is. Votto-Bruce-Phillips-Ludwick. Now Frazier. Does Frazier have a position besides 1B?

Iceman: 3rd.

TTI- I proposed Kelly Johnson as a buy-low guy that, even if he doesn't bounce back to his best seasons, can hit for power, walk, and steal some bases. He would be a great fit.

Don't see it happening though. I think they want Galvis in the lineup.

Good hit by Utley, I'm guessing. For some reason, mlb.tv isn't loading.

Come on, RFD!

Iceman, true. Should be noted that the Reds are 6th in the NL in runs, though, and closer to 8th (4 runs more) than 4th (19 runs behind). Reds pitching has been excellent.

If KK continues to pitch like this he could be worth a Headley.

BAP- well, when Rolen and Ludwick leave, they basically have a middle of the order guy to slot in there, then. Should be the best offense in the NL, again.

It is shocking they didn't pay peanuts to get Juan Pierre. Baker clearly is clueless when it comes to lineup construction, but to be fair, they don't really have a guy that would be a great fit there. Pierre would have been a great complement to the rest of the lineup.

Ooh boy. Big spot for Dom.

I expect a GIDP.

awh - Frandsen is a good story in 33 games, but he can't be a part of the Phils real plans for 2013. Give him a chance, keep him around, but if he's the Phils starting 3B next year hard to see how that couldn't be a failure. Never walks (under 4%) and is riding a .375 OBP to this point.

Unfortunately, I think Iceman's 8.11PM post is dead on.

I also think Pierre's not wearing a different uniform now because r00b had/has no real intention of letting him go. Also unfortunate.

Iceman: Maybe they want Galvis. I think he is best served by being on the bench for another year or two.

" is riding a .375 OBP to this point."

Sorry. make that BAbip.

So Latos and Kendrick did some kind of Freaky Friday brain switch?

Iceman: I don't really see Pierre as a great fit for Cincy. Bruce and Ludwick are fixtures and, if they take Stubbs out of the lineup, they don't have anyone to play CF.

Sophist- wow, I hadn't realized they were that low in runs. Is it partly a product of Votto missing time, or has it been that way all year?

I'm recording the game so I only read to the first pitch but, I am seriously hoping that Mayberry becomes a solid every day player for this team so that I can read denny b's posts about how he's washed up and some other AAAA player should get a shot in his place.

That did not look like a catch. Only saw it once, but I thought it bounced.

Another brutally bad call.

Wow. Clearly a hit. Time for replay in baseball.

Bullshit call

Once a forceout is recorded at second there is no more forceout at the plate. So they had to have ruled that a catch and then called the guy out at second for leaving.

Horseshit call there by the umps. Someone had to have seen that ball clearly hit the ground.

Not often you get to see a 2-run blown call like that, eh?

That was an obvious trap. It's a force out at 2nd but that's it.

Trap WTF where is the review? Cholly better get thrown out that is horrible. Ump should get fined. That was horse sh!t

I'm confused. 1) Was that a catch or a trap? 2) Did one of the umps on the basepaths signal that it was not caught, is that what the Phillies were arguing, and is that why they were all caught off base? Or was it just because they were running assuming it would fall in?

Iceman, pre-AS game they were 8th in the NL in runs scored. I could be mistaken but I think Votto played in almost all those games.

Anyone quickly explain for us Gameday folks?

The Reds keep saying that anyway you cut it, it's a DP. How? What Truth says is exactly right.

So it was NOT a catch? But they called Howard out on a nonexistent force out?

Sarge is exactly right here and TMac is way wrong on the forceout stuff.

Jobbed

Only good part of that is listening to LA's rant on umps. Which always amuses me and gives me great satisfaction when I feel the umps have screwed us.

the call was terrible, but the Phillies would have had two guys out no matter what. Howard held up at third, but Mayberry ran to third. IF the umps had called it correctly, Brown would have been forced out at second, and then there would have been two men at third and one would have been meat.
The umps blew the call, but Howard did too by not running.

Anything other than saying it was caught at a double-off 2nd is revisionist and BS. They may claim that afterwards, but they're wrong either way.

Just brutal? Wheels falling of for Latos, then that gift from the umps.

The umpiring in this league continues to get worse. I thought human beings' capabilities were actually increasing with evolution, but that line of thought is directly contradicted by MLB umpires.

They officially called it a catch and got Mayberry for leaving second without tagging up.

Either way- it is a horrible call.

The umps really need to decide who's in charge of the call on something like that, the rest need to quickly follow suit so that the baserunners know whether to keep running if it's a trapped ball or go back to base if it's a catch.

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