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Saturday, September 29, 2012

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So the Phils are starting Halladay tonight because for whatever reason they have refused to call up all Sept extra arms on the 40-man roster including Savery, Schwimer, and JC Ramirez or make a 40-man roster move & add another arm. Ugh

Been one of the worst seasons in quite a while by a Phils' GM when it comes to managing the roster/making in-season moves this year.

I also have no idea why the Fish are +120 tonight but I won't let an opportunity like that pass me by

This season has mirrored the '06 season in a ton of ways:

- Phils bury themselves with a terrible June including their annual poor performance in Interleague games leaving themselves buried in the standings by the ASB.

- No real immediate improvement after the ASB which leads to a massive selloff at the trade deadline.

- Team gets some pieces back, bullpen pitches a bit better, and the team plays well over a 5 or 6 week stretch starting in early August

- Team runs out of gas in mid-Sept as the offense and bullpen sputters and limps across the finish line.

'06 team won 85 games and I will be surprised if this team win 82 games.

They're also shutting down Tyler Cloyd, so a lot of these bullpen arms are going to be hammered by the end of the season. Agreed 100 percent MG.

Halladay's looking sharp.

Hm. The wonderful bullpen session doesn't seem to have translated into a whole new pitcher after all.

This should end well.

Am I alone in thinking it's about to be 4-0?

No, BAP. I was going to amend: This should end well....for the Fish.

Was Rube pinching pennies by not calling up any pitchers in September?

Lucky to get out of that with a single.

Halladay's pitches look as lifeless as any pitch thrown by a Phillie this year. I wouldn't be shocked if this is another 1 inning, 7-run performance.

Of course, even good Halladay allowed a lot of first inning runs, will have to wait til he allows 6 or 7 to know he's not worthy of pitching for our team tonight.

Finally, an out. I think Doc is pitching mostly on guts and pride.

GBrettfan - It's quote possible if you believe the Forbes article earlier this year (March 21st) when they came out their annual 'Business of Baseball' and reported the Phils lost $11.6M last year. One of only 3 teams to have lost money last year.

Really not sure why Roy Halladay is pitching tonight. Really not sure why they don't have all those minor leaguers MG listed sitting in the bullpen ready to replace him. Really not sure why I'm even watching this game.

EFF: True, but his stuff usually looks fine in the first inning. It just sometimes takes him an inning or two to find his command. Right now, the ball looks like a dying quail coming out of his hand. There's just not much movement on these pitches.

Word association:

Halladay: Fried

Toughest thing to watch by far this year has been Halladay struggling after watching a maestro perform at such a high level in '10 and '11.

Sadly, I think Halladay's days are well behind him too because of the shoulder issue he has. Think Amaro/Dubee are 100% full of $hit that there is nothing structurally wrong with Halladay just as I did when he went on the DL earlier this season.

I never understood that. How did we manage to lose money with an entire year of sellouts? Just poor budgeting?

This is a ringing indictment of the entire organization. What a bunch of spineless assclowns. They deserve to lose money.

bullit: "iirc, Schmidty was drafted in 1971, debuted as a Philly in Sept. 1972 and batted .206. then he and Mac Scarce went to Puerto Rico to play winter ball. his rookie year in '73 he batted .196. so who knows what Babe's future holds?"

Mike Schmidt, drafted as a high 2nd rounder, posted a .960 OPS in Triple A at age 22 and was considered one of the best prospects in baseball. He hit .196 in MLB at age 23 while posting a surprising 92 OPS+ considering the low BA. The next season, at age 24, he was on his way to the Hall.

Darin Ruff, a late 20th rounder, has never played in Triple A. At age 22 he posted an .874 OPS in low A ball as one of the oldest players in the league. He was not considered a prospect. He hit .330 in Lakewood at age 23 while splitting time in Clearwater, where he hit .277. The next season, at age 23, he was on his way to another season at Clearwater.

Other than that, their careers are parallel.

That second 23 should be 24.

Maybe Halladay will be able to get that 1st out more quickly next inning, seeing as the pitcher will be leading off.

GBrettfan - It is just Forbes best estimate of operating income.

http://www.forbes.com/teams/philadelphia-phillies/

This is a decent article though on why the Phils can afford Hamels.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2012/07/25/how-the-phillies-can-afford-cole-hamels-for-144-million/

Not that the Phils are paupers. Just that they have largely maxed out revenue streams the last 2 years & are waiting for the huge payday they expect from Comcast (likely after the '15 season) when their current deal is up.

I don't expect the Phils' spending to decline notably next year because they should have a pretty strong renewal rate. After next year though it is a crapshoot especially if they underperform, miss the playoffs again, and interest & thus season ticket renewals fall off a bit.

31 pitches. Only 16 of them strikes.

I feel bad for Doc. And worried.

This is like watching a heat-stricken, dehydrated marathoner trying to crawl his way his way to the finish line.

Only 3 zip with Ruf hitting 3rd.

Big question for the Phils financially is can they field a competitive enough team through '14 and '15 before the big-day from Comcast comes after the '15 season to keep the current payroll at such a high level.

Lot of that is going to be dictated by how they perform next year including making the playoffs or not.

Thanks, MG. It sounds like they were spending more than they were taking in just for a few years in hopes of winning enough to maintain fan support and get a fat contract after the Comcast deal is up.

Those of you who have season ticket packages - Do you intend to renew your subscription next year?

Yeah Boy

GBrettfan - You do have to take those numbers with a grain of salt since they are estimates and not publicly audited numbers.

Frankly the baseball owners have proven to be liars every time they open their mouths regarding the state of team finances the past 30+ years especially after the 93-94 strike and a few years ago when several teams actual financial records were leaked to Deadspin.

When a baseball owner claims he is losing money, I pretty much assume is lying from that point on. Just a question of how big the lie actually is.

Brown is a threat to get picked off.

Good point, MG.

Cat of is out the bag against Brown too. Teams know they can pound him 2-2 or 3-2 with a fastball if they need to & not really wrong about it. He's seen a steady increase in the diet of fastballs the last few weeks.

Certainly hasn't shown much over the past 2 months nor shown any real improvement from last year. Really complicates Amaro's offseason because now he has to think about the possibility of signing another OF bat besides a FA CF.

31 pitches. Only 16 of them strikes.

I feel bad for Doc. And worried.

Posted by: GBrettFan | Saturday, September 29, 2012 at 07:38 PM

Let's keep pitching him though. Nothing like trotting out your all-star pitcher and watching him get slaughtered. Oh wait, he's technically not an all-star because he didn't make the all-star game this year, oops - silly me (thanks, Iceman!).

We should really keep our expectations in check and give Doc the benefit of the doubt. I guess management is trotting him out there injured and we should be upset for him, ya know, we shouldn't expect an all-star performance from our non-all star.

/rolls eyes

Brandon Moss with a homerun and 5 RBIs today, including a walkoff in the 10th. He entered the day with 20 homeruns in 277 ABs and a 154 OPS+. Does anyone think maybe he might have been a better option for this year than the likes of Laynce Nix, Nate Schierholtz & Dom Brown?

Go Orr!! The AAA boys come through this inning.

Good job by the Phillies in their ABs tonight. Good job by the scrubs on getting a few runs!

Brown fanboys will say 'well his BABIP in only .268 and he has had bad luck'

Okay. So maybe he has and would likely have another 3-4 hits. Maybe takes him up to .255 or so.

I was really hoping that he would take a step forward this year after having the hamate bone injury last year which derailed his season. Just hasn't been the case and he really hasn't hit now since the later half of the '10 season.

Only real reason you think he might have struggled the past 2 years so much is because of the various injury problems he has had & that if he is 100% healthy he can be a starter at the MLB level.

He's nearing 500 career PA though in 3 separate MLB stints though and hasn't shown he can be so far.

GBrettFan: At the moment I plan on renewing, but dropping one of my seats. This plan is subject to change if the Phillies think they can raise ticket prices on me again.

Rather than throw in the towel, let's shove the pugilist off his stool and have him get battered another round.

Nice hit by Orr. As poorly as he played last year in limited time, he's put up good numbers this year. Typical veteran AAA/MLB player at this point. Crap shoot on whether he contributes or not.

Does anyone think maybe [Brandon Moss] might have been a better option for this year than the likes of Laynce Nix, Nate Schierholtz & Dom Brown?

Not here on BL...LOL.

thanks, clout. i know schmidt was a bonafide college star and took his team to the college world series. did he ever play AAA? btw, that crazy jim bunning must have been a hell of a good teacher at reading. i noticed that ricky bo seems to be slightly backpedaling from his claim that AAA is superfluous.

I know it's hard to believe, but Dallas Keuchel in HOU is not enjoying nearly the success against MIL as he did against our Phillies. It's 7-0 MIL in the 3rd.

But maybe it's because he's pitching away, in MIL.

BAP: "Brandon Moss with a homerun and 5 RBIs today, including a walkoff in the 10th. He entered the day with 20 homeruns in 277 ABs and a 154 OPS+. Does anyone think maybe he might have been a better option for this year than the likes of Laynce Nix, Nate Schierholtz & Dom Brown?"

Looks like he might've. Don't recall you ever mentioning it last spring, though.

Guys like this are a dime a dozen (see Pete Orr.) Every now and then, one of 'em hits the number. Predicting who is impossible.

Slow starter:

Halladay starts and runs surrendered in the 1st inning

2011: 32 G, 13 ER
2011 postseason: 2 G, 4 ER
2012: 25 G, 18 ER (including the first inning tonight)

That's 35 ER in 59 IP or a 5.33 ERA. In his other 343 IP, he has allowed 104 ER or a 2.73 ERA.

MG: "Big question for the Phils financially is can they field a competitive enough team through '14 and '15 before the big-day from Comcast comes after the '15 season to keep the current payroll at such a high level.

Lot of that is going to be dictated by how they perform next year including making the playoffs or not."

This is exactly right. I think they have a ton of guranteed contracts off the books after '14 if I'm not mistaken. That may be when we see the total rebuild.

This was "funner" earlier in the month.

MG's right about sputtering & limping.


What's this I read about Adam Eaton stabbing himself while opening a DVD in 2001? That was before my renewed interested in baseball, so it was news to me. News I really should not be amused by, but was.

There were probably some bitter coments from Reds fans when Tyler Cloyd got rocked in subsequent starts after he shut down the Reds.

It's a good thing Halladay feels so healthy or else this game might be real ugly right now.

Roy just not sharp with his breaking stuff tonight.

When they showed that shot of the moon, I knew a moonshot was coming up from Stanton. Ugh!

Every Phillies starter has to give up at least 1 HR per outing. I think it might be a new rule.

Half-joking but maybe the solution next year is to have Halladay throw a simulated game in the pen in the 1st inning & come in for the start of the 2nd.

EFF, fair enough. Except the Reds are still going to the postseason, whereas our hopes for it died in Houston.

Marlins' fans should get to enjoy at least 2 more seasons (maybe even 3) of Stanton before he is traded due to impending FA in 2017.

Enough of this sad display. Time to go out for a drink and relax.

If we could pry Stanton away from the Marlins, I'd give them Mayberry, Brown, Nix, Schierholtz, Wigginton, and Martinez. I don't suppose there's a chance in hell they'd go for that trade, though.

Doc getting roughed up tonight...again.

Feels like we might not stay above .500 this year.

clout: You're being a little bit disingenuous about Moss. When he was putting up monster numbers at LV last year, my initial thought was that he was just some random AAA lifer putting up good numbers against younger competition. Eventually, though, I came around to the idea that he might be a legitimate major leaguer. What changed my mind? As I recall, it was a post by a Beerleaguer poster named clout, who reads everything there is to read about minor league prospects, and who believed that Brandon Moss might actually be a legitimate major league talent.

My point is: it's not like the A's just randomly hit the jackpot on Brandon Moss. There was reason to believe he might well be a good major leaguer if given the chance. You, yourself, said so at the time.

This season took an evil turn last Saturday. They haven't shaken off the Braves series, and finishing below .500 looks like a distinct possibility, as NEPP suggests.

Cholly, I'm not in the lineup again? Suck it, you fat pig!

Listening to the Phils on the radio (thank God for Franzke and LA!) and watching the O's game on TV. I have no life.....

Please don't bunt.

Halladay with an infield hit. Endless untapped energy. Now beats the throw to 2nd by shear hustle.

Ok, well, at least Pierre bunted well. Don't mind me.

Chase! Oh, and Rollins is now only 1 run away from 100 for the 6th time in his career.

Nice hit, Dom!

I'm never sure whether he can tap his potential (consistently) or not.

I'll say this for Dom: when he does make contact it sure is pretty.

That's a big hit. Now he's limp.

Those hopes that died in Houston came after all the other hopes that died throughout the season.

God...if D Brown could just get consistent....

Ruf is a piano back runner but almost snuck that one through.

Moneyball is the reason y the A's. so easy to see with that team. Took a lot of flyers on guys. Moved guys when price was getting high nd the returns were outstanding. Congrats beane to another great job. And the Cuban has been outstanding.

BAP: I would have to go back and look at my post, but I suspect what I said is that it never hurts to give a guy like that a look-see, he had decent tools as a prospect, but there's no way anyone could've predicted that outcome.

Yup. Ruf is a terrible fielder.

Ruf much better at 1B than in LF.

Ruf is an athlete. See that boys. He just can't sprint.

Wow...that was a big-time play.

ruf's catch got a double wow from sarge.

Nice play by Ruf. Maybe Howard should be going to winterball to learn to play LF.

Okay, Roy. Do NOT give it up like a prom date now...

Halladay looked pissed at Reyes for all that dancing around out there at second.

Halladay is amazing.

Howard should spend the winter at Jenny Craig.

How many days into spring training before Halladay is shut down and misses most or all of next season with shoulder surgery? Any guesses? I could give a flying f$@& how he says he feels or whatever the hell he told the team that convinced them he was OK to pitch this game, but he damn well better visit every specialist and have every test done under the sun during the off season. No way he isn't hurt.

Howard now has a broken toe that will keep him off his feet for at least 4-5 weeks. Possibly 6 weeks.

That's mid-Nov. He's also getting married Dec. 1st and going on a honeymoon afterwards.

Pretty much wipes out from Oct to mid-Dec. to really get in shape.

2012 Salary:

Ty Wigginton, $4 million

Carlos Ruiz, $3.7 million

So we can pretty much write off 2013 for Howard too then?

Awesome.

Halladay got that one out tonight. He had nothing and got them through 5 IP.

Only 5 IP for Doc, and only 2 last start. He should be good to go on tues.

And, of course, there will be the annual Chase Utley watch from February-March until about sometime in July when he finally makes an appearance...

GT_D: does that make ty a mini-albatross?

GTown: That's just wrong.

No, I'm the mini-albatross.

EFF - To your point that the Houston series wasn't the be-all end-all of the season, I can't disagree with that. It's been a season with many disappointments along the way, and June was most crushing, I'd say.

Best thing about this game hands down so far was Halladay's hustle in top of the 5th inning on his basehit and on the basepaths.

MM: you're more like a mini-parakeet.

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