Game chat: Phillies carry slim playoff hopes to NY

Cliff Lee (5-7, 3.36 ERA) tries for his fourth straight winning decision Monday against Cy Young hopeful R.A. Dickey (18-5, 2.68 ERA) and the New York Mets. First pitch is 7:05. The Phils trail the Cardinals by four games in the National League Wild Card race. [Jump to the newest comments]

Comments

[MG]

Rube's Offseason Plan:

- You know it will include signing a starter in CF. Seems to have a fascination with Bourn. If not Bourn, it will be Pagan or Upton.

Problem is that if he signs Bourn or even Upton he blows a lot of his cash.

- As for 3B, I fully expect him to move Utley there after a very brief audition this fall/spring training. Frees up a spot for Galvis at 2B.

- Amaro is going to sign a veteran RHP reliever too. Guaranteed. Just a question of what the market bears and who he likes.

The rest will be tinkering with minor secondary signs for bench/part-time players at $1-$2M/year.

Is that a team good enough to contend next year? Yeah if the starting pitching is really good again for the entire year & the Phils enjoy relatively good health.

[Bubba]

"All these plans are dependant on Howard bouncing back in 2013. If he doesn't, the ofefnse will be mediocre, if he does, it could end up as average to solid."

Truer words were never posted.

[MG]

Halladay and Howard. I would argue that Halladay's struggles/injury this year were more important than the lack of production from Howard.

[NEPP]

Also, trading Lee is a non-starter and here's why:

Doc will be 36 next year and he's pitched like a 3/4 guy this year. Sure, he MIGHT bounce back but most non-steroid age pitchers see a noticable dropoff after Age 35 and he's following that path to a T right now. Do I think he's as bad as he has been in 2012? No, but I dont expect any 150-160 ERA+ seasons in the future from him.

Lee and Hamels anchor a very solid rotation. Hamels and 4 question marks is not the way to go for a team largely built around its rotation.

[Iceman]

Who has written that Amaro has a fascination with Bourn? Or is that just something MG made up?

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

I'm sure Amaro has not mentioned Bourn by name in any interview. It's against league rules to discuss players under contract with other teams.

[Bubba]

Honoring Chipper later in the week is rubbing me the wrong way

First, I never will remember him in any other way than as an enemy player who put a hurting on the Phils every chance he got, with the fans yelling "Larry" only adding fuel to the fire.

Second, Thome, Polanco and Moyer have significantly contributed to the Phils and are likely slipping into their retirements virtually unnoticed. Maybe they will keep playing, maybe the Phils will notice when and if they announce retirements, but who knows.

Last and most important, we're playing the Braves with our backs to the wall & they are in a comfortable position. Praise for one of their players before a 3 game series is just forced and out of place.

[GBrettFan]

Yeah, but Chipper's destined for the HOF, and if the Phillies are the only team not to honor him, it will make the organization look ungracious.

I agree with you, Bubba, about wanting to honor the others. Maybe they'll come back after retirement for a game in which we can applaud and appreciate their contributions.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Yeah, a real no-win situation for the Phillies. Just don't make a big deal out of it. Recognize the man and his accomplishments, then hate the player during the game.

[Willard Preacher]

I'm in sunny 85 degree L.A., but hearing that weather may be an issue for tonight's game. Are they going to get this thing played? If not, make-up Thursday?

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Who is the greatest #1 overall draft pick in baseball history?

Chipper Jones (1990) or Ken Griffey Jr (1987)?

When Griffey gets into the Hall, he'll be the first #1 overall draft pick to be inducted, followed shortly by Chipper Jones.

[Willard Preacher]

KAS, you better tread lightly.

Appreciation for Kyle Kendrick is already a minor offense around these parts. Adding in an appreciation for Chipper Jones and it's a reflex reaction for the rest of us to begin looking for pitchforks and torches.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Willard Preacher: I'll keep that in mind. I hate Chipper Jones, but respect his career.

[Willard Preacher]

Though, from the perspective of sheer entertainment value of watching him play, I'm in the Junior camp. When he was pulling back HR's in CF in his prime, he was fun to watch play. And he had one of the most natural looking power strokes of anyone I've ever seen play. A pretty likable dude, too.

[GBrettFan]

I think the Brewers are going to knock the Pirates out of this thing with this series.

[GBrettFan]

As for the Phillies v. Mets, the weather doesn't look great here in South Jersey. It's been raining off and on all day with thunderstorms predicted throughout the afternoon & evening. Looks like it's the same forecast for NY.

[Sophist]

Phils fans will boo Chipper without mercy at the honoring and during every AB, so I wouldn't worry about giving him too much due.

[Sophist]

Yeah, there probably won't be much baseball tonight from DC to NY.

[Willard Preacher]

It would be a real shame to miss another Tyler Cloyd start.... /s

[Conway Twitty]

I smell another doubleheader created bullpen game next week.

[Sil Campusano]

...bullpen game...

Ugh.

[Willard Preacher]

Both teams have an open date on Thursday. Why wouldn't they just use that for the makeup (and just skip Cloyd's spot in the rotation)?

[Joe D]

I don't understand why the whole league is honoring Chipper. As much as he was a villain I do really like the guy as a ballplayer and feel bad he was robbed of so much time due to injuries. But that still doesn't mean I think every team should do something for him.

[MG]

Who cares if they honor Larry? It is just several minutes before the game when most people are still filtering into their seats anyways.

Not a fan but he's a very good/great player. If MLB wants to honor him at each NL park, so be it.

[GTown_Dave]

The Phillies ought to honor Chipper Jones for the simple fact that his decision to retire means he will no longer be single-battedly slaughtering their ball club, year in & year out, w/out even the slightest sign of slowing down.

[Bubba]

WP- An open date on Monday too- They should be able to get by easily with a 5 man rotation, maybe go down to 4 at some point.
Don't see the need for a BP game.

[Willard Preacher]

I don't suppose the Braves are planning on giving Chipper Brian McCann as a going away gift?

[Sophist]

Can McCann play 3B or CF? I guess they could trade him for Headley or ARam.

[Sophist]

Not much talk of Headley's second half here either. .301/.369/.542 over the last 80 games. He's hitting .303/.392/.542 outside of Petco this year. No way the Phils can get him now.

[Joe D]

Well done, WP.

[GBrettFan]

With the departures of Chipper and of the Astros, the Phillies should automatically win at least 5 more games next year, right?

[Lake Fred]

GBrett, I couldn't have stated that any better. Good riddance to both Larry Jones and the 'Stros.

[GTown_Dave]

Hamels

28 GS, 3.06 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 197.1 IP, 172 H, 74 R, 67 ER, 23 HR, 49 BB, 192 K, 7.8 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 3.92 SO/BB

Lee

27 GS, 3.27 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 190.0 IP, 187 H, 73 R, 69 ER, 22 HR, 28 BB, 184 K, 8.9 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 1.3 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 6.57 SO/BB

Amazing how similar their numbers are after such (apparently) wildly divergent seasons the two have been experiencing.

[Willard Preacher]

GTown, that's actually shocking to see. If you go with the whole "my eyes tell me" line of thinking, there's NO WAY you'd see any similarity at all between Lee and Hamels this year. One has been anointed as having a very down year, while the other was being debated as either "good" or "great" as recently as yesterday.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

GTown_Dave: Very interesting numbers. And while others may call them disappointing, they're still two of the top 10 pitchers in the league.

[Willard Preacher]

GBrett, you'd think that losing Chipper and the Astros would help, but I'll be shocked if the Phils don't predictably crap the bed against the Indians your very own KC Royals in interleague play.

[MG]

www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/09/free-agent-stock-watch-jason-grilli.html

Good piece on Grilli but I had no idea that Gary Sheffield is an agent now (represents Grilli).

[Willard Preacher]

Sophist, if you think that Headley having a great 2nd half doesn't actually make it even MORE likely that RAJ would overpay for him (after missing out on him at the deadline), then you have a different take on Ruben Amaro Junior than I.

Though, I think that RAJ may actually be outsmarting himself with the whole "Chase at 3B" decision, which will likely also end very poorly.

[Iceman]

Sorry MG for asking you this again, but where did you read that Amaro is 'fascinated' with Bourn? If there's such a piece, I'd like to read it.

[TM]

Let's honor Polanco by giving him his release before the end of the season.

[bay_area_phan]

There was a column maybe a month ago -- I don't recall who wrote it -- which said that Michael Bourn is the apple of RAJ's eye. Doesn't mean it's true, or that things can't change. But I assume the columnist had a source in the FO who told him this. Personally, I'd rather have Pagan, now that he seems to have straightened out his defensive issues. If Bourn is the better player, it's not by much and he's going to cost a lot more. Of course, I'd rather have B.J. Upton than either one of them.

[GTown_Dave]

Preacher: Goes to show how little W/L can mean. Run support (expressed as Run Support Avg./Start), on the other hand, is rather important. Hamels currently ranks 6th in the NL amongst qualifying pitchers (4.82 R/S). Lee ranks 39th (3.89 R/S).

By-the-by, Halladay's run support ranks 9th best in the NL (4.74 R/S). Helps explain why he has notably worse numbers than Hamels or Lee, yet still sports a winning record.

[GTown_Dave]

Adam Rubin: "Matt Harvey scratched because of weather. Jeremy Hefner will start if Mets do play."

My feeling is the game will be PPD, but who knows. MLB does some odd things.

[EastFallowfield]

Matt Harvey has been scratched from tonight’s start because of inclement weather.

Jeremy Hefner, who was tomorrow’s scheduled starter, will start in Harvey’s place tonight.

So it's good to have your worst starter going tonight...

[Willard Preacher]

It's even better to not have him going (and have the luxury of skipping his turn altogether).

[Iceman]

BAP- why would you rather have Upton than Pagan?

I like what Bourn brings defensively and on the basepaths, being ++ in both areas, so he'd be at the top of my list. I'd say Pagan 2nd (didn't realize his offensive numbers, especially in SF, were so good), and then maybe Upton (career OPS+ 105). If you don't like Youkilis's numbers and think all he can do is walk, I'm not sure why you're more enamored with Upton as a player, with his .250/.301/.443/.745, 109 OPS+ (30 SBs in 36 attempts) in a contract year.

FWIW, Pagan's line this year (career 106 OPS+): .291/.340/.441/.781, 122 OPS+ in a cavernous ballpark, with 26 SBs in 33 attempts. The more I look at his body of work, the more I wonder if he's not a better fit than Bourn. The issue would be if he could stay on the field.

I hadn't realized how much Bourn's numbers have cratered in the 2nd half. .220/.318/.303 (!!!)/.621 with 12 XBHs.

[Sophist]

"Sophist, if you think that Headley having a great 2nd half doesn't actually make it even MORE likely that RAJ would overpay for him (after missing out on him at the deadline), then you have a different take on Ruben Amaro Junior than I.

What would an overpay for Headley be? 28-years-old, sitting on a 139 OPS+ season, back to back .370+ OBP, a career .303/.370/.462 hitter outside of Petco still in his prime, arb-eligible and making less than $4M this season??

I'm not sure anything the Phils have could be an overpay really. I think the issue is they don't have anything good enough.

[aksmith]

It's a good thing the Phils are starting a pitcher they don't worry about in bad weather or with short rest, or any of a million other things that could be bad for a pitcher. If Cloyd ran off to Slovenia with the maid tomorrow, they'd likely not blink an eye.

And if there is a doubleheader makeup, I would hope they'd bring up Pettibone or Martin or similar instead of using the pen or a starter on short rest. If this season comes down to missing the playoffs by one game, Rube should be hogtied and beaten with a stick for his roster decisions that called for Cloyd on short rest AND a bullpen game, which turned out to be the same game. It was completely predictable that that would be a loss and that it would damage the pen going forward.

[Sophist]

Agree with aksmith. Please no repeat of the Cloyd start in HOU.

[Iceman]

Poor Cliff Lee. I don't recall him blowing a single lead this year, or last year, and whenever he did, it was the umpire's fault.

[Sophist]

Also, Headley is a switch hitter.

[Cliff Lee is a Phillie]

Iceman, anyone who reads this blog knows you don't like Cliff Lee that much and have advocating trading him away several times this year. We get it.

I'm glad he's a Philadelphia Phillie!

[donc]

Jack has Howie, Ice has Cliffie.

[GBrettFan]

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
Phillies are expecting a postponement to Thursday.

[Fatalotti]

Iceman has noted that several on here have made excuses in the past for Cliff Lee when he's blown leads or other such things. Completely understandable.

The weird thing is that his noticing of this phenomenon morphed into what appears to be an actual dislike for the player himself.

That's strange.

Cliff Lee, like all baseball players, is not beyond reproach. But after watching a team with garbage starting pitching my whole life, I find myself unable to dislike Lee, even if he was having a down year (which he seems to have turned around), for the simple fact that the guy was a legitimate CY contender last year (#2 pitcher in the NL last year), and this year, he's still top 10, and his peripherals show no reason to believe that he's lost anything or should be significantly worse next year.

Strikeouts have dipped a bit this year, but that was to be expected given that last year was a career year for him in that regards. Everything else is pretty much in line with who he was last year.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Rain out tonight. Hamels pitches tomorrow. Game to be made up on Thursday. Good chance we just skip Cloyd.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Nope... Cloyd pushed to Thursday.

[Sil Campusano]

Standing by for the Bruntbeard...

[GTown_Dave]

A perfect opportunity to skip Cloyd, & the Phillies turn it down. Brilliant minds at work.

[MG]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/29002/kenny-williams-most-underrated-gm-in-game

Kenny Williams or the anti-Rube Amaro GM. Gets my vote for most underrated GM in baseball. Fields a competitive team year-in, year-out despite an owner who doesn't invest much in the minor leagues/draft and a payroll that has been closer to #9-10 in MLB since he became GM.

[Kendrick Appreciation Society]

Interesting... Gelb reports Phillies players voted to play a doubleheader on Wednesday to keep their Thursday off day intact, but the Mets players voted to play on Thursday. Not sure why the Mets players get to decide.

[EastFallowfield]

Yo, new thread

[R.Billingsly]

Yo, new thread

Where?

[Sophist]

Time travel. O's called up Dylan Bundy. Pretty cool

[GBrettFan]

That's odd. The Eric Bruntlett rain postponement thread disappeared. Cue Twilight Zone music.

[Sil Campusano]

Disappearing Bruntbeard!

[GTown_Dave]

That new thread disappeared faster than the Phillies renewed Postseason aspirations, amirite?

[EastFallowfield]

It disappeared! Cancel the yo, new thread alert!

[GBrettFan]

Clever, GTown.

I found this piece on Ryan Howard to be interesting.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/170277256.html

[GBrettFan]

And this one is interesting, too, not about Howard's recovery & role on the team, this time, but about his part in the payroll and the effect of our payroll in general:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/170131386.html

[jbird]

The real question is, will CBP Headley hit as many homeruns as CBP Feliz was supposed to?

[lorecore]

huh thats weird, back to yesterday's game chat?

oh well, Mayberry still sucks.

[donc]

Well, that Yunel Escobar seems like a smart young man.

[Sophist]

Weird thing is, even on the downside of his career, he was actually a better player in his two years with the Phils than he was in his last two years with the Giants.

Headley will probably hit 30 HR for the Padres this year, but it could easily be a blip on the radar given his previous output. Would still love to see him on the Phils, but a return to 10 HR+ seasons shouldn't shock anyone.

[Iceman]

Did we transfer to an alternate reality? If so, is Mini Mart still on the team?

That Bundy thing is awesome. I've usually rooted against the Orioles for quite some time for an admittedly ridiculous reason (the idolization of Cal Ripken that has gone on for nearly 20 seasons now), but I've hopped on the bandwagon this year. The Ripken thing is more the organization's problem than the fans. And the fans deserve a playoff team.

There should be quite a few interesting teams in the playoffs, and I'll be watching intently even though the Phils won't be there. The Reds, Orioles, A's, and Nats (though I definitely won't be rooting for Washington) will be injecting some much needed new blood into the postseason. Hopefully they don't all flame out and we're stuck with Yanks/Giants or some series where I want both teams to lose.

And I'm still rooting for the Rangers, also, for whatever reason.

[schmenkman]

I don't know if there's been discussion about this yet, but these are 2012's best MLB shortstops, by fWAR:

1. Rollins 4.7
2. Desmond 4.6
3. Reyes 4.4
4. Andrus 4.0
5. Jeter 3.5

[clout]

I read somewhere that Bruntlett's lawyer has threatened Weitzel with a copyright infringement lawsuit.

[Willard Preacher]

Bruntlett should actually be paying JW royalties, for keeping his name (and his beard) relevant for something other than monumental sucktitude.

[Sil Campusano]

I bet the Bruntbeard is happy Mini Mart is still around. Because as long as he is, Beardlett will not be the worst utility player the Phillies have had in the last 10 years. Or for MM's case, ever.

[lorecore]

jroll must have shot up about a full win because i swear Desmond had at least a full point ahead of him the beginning of this month.

[johnnysanz3]

A 1.052 OPS and 6HR in September could do that. (Rollins)

[Fatalotti]

It's possible that if Jimmy goes completely bonkers over the last 15 games, he could have his 3rd highest season by fWAR of his career. Pretty damn good for a 33 year old loafer in the first year of his deal.

[ColonelTom]

Suckitude? Eric Bruntlett has a prominent place in an exhibit in the Hall of Fame, complete with a continuously looping video of his unassisted triple play. Suck on that!

[lorecore]

whats is ~$$ equivalent of WAR, like $4.5M per W?

[Fatalotti]

lorecore, $4.5 last I checked. Jimmy could equal the value of his contract by July of next year if comes close to replicating what he's done this year, next year, by the way.

[Bonehead]

Assigning a salary dollar value to a WAR unit is stupid.

[NEPP]

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=826,335,1010978,971,1013157,1012186,411

Here is an interesting WARgraph of notable SS in the past 20-30 years...HoF and near-HoF level guys basically...with Rollins thrown in for comparison.

[Fatalotti]

Assigning a salary dollar value to a WAR unit is stupid.

Posted by: Bonehead | Wednesday, September 19, 2012 at 01:08 PM

Not only is this not an argument, but if WAR does what it claims to do (which is debatable), then you're flat out wrong. Businesses are very interested in value per dollar, and since WAR is a value stat, then assigning a dollar value to each WAR makes perfect sense.

[schmenkman]

You can call it assigning a value, but it's what players have earned on the FA market in recent years (i.e. total $ paid per year to FAs, divided by total WAR per year produced by those FAs).

Article on that: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six

[Willard Preacher]

yo, new thread (hopefully it "sticks" this time)

[lorecore]

Pretty nasty, his rate stats still lag behind what you would like to see out of a true "difference maker" but his speed/power combo is starting to elevate him into extremely rare company the further his career progresses.

20 bombs and 30 steals from a 33yr old SS is unprecedented.

Only 12 players have been older than jroll's 33 age season to even go 20/20. Drops to 8 if you take out DH's.